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A big dose of tempered enthusiasm

gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231 ✭
in Precious Metals
Is it just me, or are we all sort of "chomping at the bit" when we see silver being sold at less than a buck over? Recent and even current sales at APMEX, and even Ebay seem to be showing a serious downtrend in premiums. After more than 12 months of $2.50-$3.50 over melt premiums from just about every single outlet where silver could be aquired, these new lower premiums have worked me into a "buy, buy, buy" frenzy. The real question appears to be, is this a temporary deal of sorts, or is this just the silver bull returning to somewhat of a normal market? I recall just a short 18-24 months ago, I could buy all the 1, 5, and 10 oz bars I wanted at perhaps just 50 cents over. I could get as many maples as I could afford for about $1.25 over. Now when I see APMEX and other outlets with these 99 cent sales, should I continue to be excited, or do I need to temper my enthusiasm?

Comments

  • SportsModeratorSportsModerator Posts: 1,624 mod


    << <i>..........................or do I need to temper my enthusiasm >>



    No, NO! we need someone to suck up every 5 oz bar that appears on the market.

    image

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  • bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭
    The fact that you are asking yourself this means I'm sure the rational part of you knows the answer, but buying hoards of shiny metal because you think the monetary system will have a complete collapse could be an indication that the rational part of you is not the one driving your amped up desire to buy all of this SEEMINGLY low premium metal. Of course, on these boards your fear of monetary collapse is mainstream, and many posters here, were happy to buy physical silver at over &20 dollars when spot was less than $17, so I suspect there are many who won't agree with me image
  • 1jester1jester Posts: 8,637 ✭✭✭


    << <i> I suspect there are many who won't agree with me image >>



    ...and I'm just as certain there are those among us who will.


    imageimageimage
    .....GOD
    image

    "Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9

    "Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5

    "For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    i think you have altered the gravitational force of the earth as well as killed the premiums over melt with your own branded bars...image
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    If the paper market pushs silver back down below $10 you'll see the spreads return as they get into higher prices the spreads will be smaller IMO.
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231 ✭


    << <i>If the paper market pushs silver back down below $10 you'll see the spreads return as they get into higher prices the spreads will be smaller IMO. >>




    Then how do you explain that for the better part of the last 4 months, while the price of silver has basically remained stable, only now are we seeing a reduction in premiums?
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,071 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.


    Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
    Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • COINB0YCOINB0Y Posts: 4,505


    << <i>

    << <i>..........................or do I need to temper my enthusiasm >>



    No, NO! we need someone to suck up every 5 oz bar that appears on the market.

    image >>



    LOL!
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.


    Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
    Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



    Does that mean that the US Mint will finally be able to produce collector versions of the AGE's & ASE's?
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • halfhunterhalfhunter Posts: 2,770 ✭✭✭
    HERE is an article that I found interesting on he subject.

    Regards,

    John
    Need the following OBW rolls to complete my 46-64 Roosevelt roll set:
    1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
    Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
  • JoesMaNameJoesMaName Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.


    Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
    Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



    Please stop talking sense no one here want to here this drivel.
    I feel compelled to point out that you either bash the paper pushers or mock the metal mongers...
    but please none of this rational flap-trap!
    image

    ...
  • MrOrganicMrOrganic Posts: 1,366


    << <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.


    Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
    Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>




    winna winna chicken dinna!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Premiums will drop for 3 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.
    3. Increase in paper or electronic substitutes.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,322 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>If the paper market pushs silver back down below $10 you'll see the spreads return as they get into higher prices the spreads will be smaller IMO. >>




    Then how do you explain that for the better part of the last 4 months, while the price of silver has basically remained stable, only now are we seeing a reduction in premiums? >>



    I think part of it has to do with volatility, or the lack of it When there's little price change, premiums shrink because the volatility is low. If silver were to spike up and then sell off sharply, the premium would expand.
    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,322 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.


    Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
    Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



    I think what you've stated here has to do with the price of silver, not the premium. Supply and demand factors cause run ups or sell offs in the spot market
    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • MrOrganicMrOrganic Posts: 1,366


    << <i>Premiums will drop for 3 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.
    3. Increase in paper or electronic substitutes. >>



    good point on #3
    Singapore & Hong Kong March/April
    Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
    MACAU
    emgworldwide@gmail.com
    Cell: 512.808.3197
    EMERGING MARKET GROUP
    PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,071 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

    1. Decrease in demand.
    2. Increase in supply.


    Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
    Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



    I think what you've stated here has to do with the price of silver, not the premium. Supply and demand factors cause run ups or sell offs in the spot market >>



    Premium is 100% a function of demand. If there is no demand, there will be no premium.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    When you temper enthusiasm, do you have

    to quench it, like you do a sharp edge?
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
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