A big dose of tempered enthusiasm

gecko109

Is it just me, or are we all sort of "chomping at the bit" when we see silver being sold at less than a buck over? Recent and even current sales at APMEX, and even Ebay seem to be showing a serious downtrend in premiums. After more than 12 months of $2.50-$3.50 over melt premiums from just about every single outlet where silver could be aquired, these new lower premiums have worked me into a "buy, buy, buy" frenzy. The real question appears to be, is this a temporary deal of sorts, or is this just the silver bull returning to somewhat of a normal market? I recall just a short 18-24 months ago, I could buy all the 1, 5, and 10 oz bars I wanted at perhaps just 50 cents over. I could get as many maples as I could afford for about $1.25 over. Now when I see APMEX and other outlets with these 99 cent sales, should I continue to be excited, or do I need to temper my enthusiasm?

SportsModerator

<< <i>..........................or do I need to temper my enthusiasm >>



No, NO! we need someone to suck up every 5 oz bar that appears on the market.

bluelobster

The fact that you are asking yourself this means I'm sure the rational part of you knows the answer, but buying hoards of shiny metal because you think the monetary system will have a complete collapse could be an indication that the rational part of you is not the one driving your amped up desire to buy all of this SEEMINGLY low premium metal. Of course, on these boards your fear of monetary collapse is mainstream, and many posters here, were happy to buy physical silver at over &20 dollars when spot was less than $17, so I suspect there are many who won't agree with me

1jester

<< <i> I suspect there are many who won't agree with me >>



...and I'm just as certain there are those among us who will.

57loaded

i think you have altered the gravitational force of the earth as well as killed the premiums over melt with your own branded bars...

ttown

If the paper market pushs silver back down below $10 you'll see the spreads return as they get into higher prices the spreads will be smaller IMO.

gecko109

<< <i>If the paper market pushs silver back down below $10 you'll see the spreads return as they get into higher prices the spreads will be smaller IMO. >>




Then how do you explain that for the better part of the last 4 months, while the price of silver has basically remained stable, only now are we seeing a reduction in premiums?

cohodk

Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.


Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up.

COINB0Y

<< <i>

<< <i>..........................or do I need to temper my enthusiasm >>



No, NO! we need someone to suck up every 5 oz bar that appears on the market.

>>



LOL!

OPA

<< <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.


Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



Does that mean that the US Mint will finally be able to produce collector versions of the AGE's & ASE's?

halfhunter

HERE is an article that I found interesting on he subject.

Regards,

John

JoesMaName

<< <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.


Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



Please stop talking sense no one here want to here this drivel.
I feel compelled to point out that you either bash the paper pushers or mock the metal mongers...
but please none of this rational flap-trap!

MrOrganic

<< <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.


Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>




winna winna chicken dinna!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Overdate

Premiums will drop for 3 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.
3. Increase in paper or electronic substitutes.

percyb

<< <i>

<< <i>If the paper market pushs silver back down below $10 you'll see the spreads return as they get into higher prices the spreads will be smaller IMO. >>




Then how do you explain that for the better part of the last 4 months, while the price of silver has basically remained stable, only now are we seeing a reduction in premiums? >>



I think part of it has to do with volatility, or the lack of it When there's little price change, premiums shrink because the volatility is low. If silver were to spike up and then sell off sharply, the premium would expand.

percyb

<< <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.


Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



I think what you've stated here has to do with the price of silver, not the premium. Supply and demand factors cause run ups or sell offs in the spot market

MrOrganic

<< <i>Premiums will drop for 3 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.
3. Increase in paper or electronic substitutes. >>



good point on #3

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>Premiums will drop for 2 reasons.

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply.


Demand has dropped as the panic phase of the economic deceleration has passed, for now, and disposable income has decreased.
Supply has increased as demand as decreased and the smelters have caught up. >>



I think what you've stated here has to do with the price of silver, not the premium. Supply and demand factors cause run ups or sell offs in the spot market >>



Premium is 100% a function of demand. If there is no demand, there will be no premium.

Bear

When you temper enthusiasm, do you have

to quench it, like you do a sharp edge?