Silver over $13.20
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
Gold and silver opened strong in Asia tonight. Silver at $13.23 with the g:s ratio moving down from 70+ to 69.25. Staying below the 69 target will be bullish. Can't help but notice that 90% of the Kitco headlines today are all bullish for gold. But in the same light, very few of the analysts have yet to put out recent articles on gold's bullishness. Overall sentiment is still a bit weak.
Clive Maund on gold's chart
Clive Maund on silver's chart
roadrunner
Clive Maund on gold's chart
Clive Maund on silver's chart
roadrunner
0
Comments
in all seriousness i cannot grasp how you take this dribble as actual
advice. i read the silver report and the person could summarize their
thoughts in two sentences but instead rambles on for a few paragraphs
to make it appear that they have something relevant to say.
<< <i>90% of the Kitco headlines today are all bullish for gold >>
Of course the clown Nadler has to tell us that the metals really are too high and that the Chinese gold purchase wasn't really important. What he really means is he wants you to get scared and sell you PMs to Kitco, below spot.
The 2 charts he posted summarized it quite clearly and show the current state of Au/Ag. There are probably a number of people here who haven't looked at a chart in days, weeks, or even months. If someone doesn't like to read opinions then don't open the link? I've probably linked similar Maund articles half a dozen times. Certainly the analysis was better than one CU Forum sage whose recent PM market analysis (ie "dribble") went something like this: "one more rise up and then pffft for a long time." Some serious ciphering indeed! At least the forum readers had a choice in whether to open up the Maund link. No such option was available to us in reading the "pffft" prediction as part of a larger thread.
Maund's amplifying words offer assistance to those who really don't look at analytics, numbers, and just don't like charts. His mention of silver eventually breaking out above 13.20 seemed a significant milestone. While it did do that last night, it was only for a few minutes and then promptly back down.
FWIW the metals snapped back pretty good from Friday's g:s 71.7 close to last night's 69.3 peak. It was enough of a move to possibly signal the end of the current snapback while it meanders back towards 71 or higher. It's still in the 70's just prior to Monday's NY open so it is still in a solid position. But now it looks like it will have to fight against a rebounding dollar and falling oil. I'm not convinced of a breakout just yet.
roadrunner
Both are still in downtrends from last years highs and both may have broken the uptrends from the November lows. This is a fairly steep uptrend so it should have been broken anyway, but it lends to the nuetral/sideways trading pattern.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
Who is John Galt? That's old time religion there 'ski, I surely hope you enjoy it as much as everyone else that has read it has.
Considering gold and silver have been in a corrective pattern since at least Feb 2009, and possible as far back as March 2008, buy and hold may not yet be a winning strategy. The bears have had the floor for most of the past 13 months. When that changes, buy and hold may make a lot more sense, especially when we enter the 2nd major leg up of this 2001-201X bull market. Those legs typically rise much quicker than the first leg. Buy and hold from 2002 to early 2008 was a good play if you were able to do it.
roadrunner
> buy and hold may not yet be a winning stretegy
I know what you're saying but I would simply point out everything is relative. I first bought gold in the mid 1970's ~ $140.00/oz. I think buy and hold has done just fine as a strategy
KJ ---> not saying I haven't bought and sold all along the way since then
<< <i>Does anyone actually buy for the long term anymore? You guys watch the market so closely that one might think you are nothing but a buncha day traders. >>
HEY!!!! I resemble that remark.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>> buy and hold may not yet be a winning stretegy
I know what you're saying but I would simply point out everything is relative. I first bought gold in the mid 1970's ~ $140.00/oz. I think buy and hold has done just fine as a strategy
KJ ---> not saying I haven't bought and sold all along the way since then >>
Actually that works out to be about a 5.5% annualized return. You would have been better off buying a 30yr Treasury. But I get your point.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
> You would have been better off buying a 30yr Treasury
Well, as I mentioned, I have bought and sold all along the way. I remember when I bought a 1 oz Credit Suisse bar as a gift for my nephew, paying ~ $170.00/oz. That seemed a really high price to me. I didn't think there would ever be a profit on that buy
For months, I have written that in the forced Bear Stearns/JPMorgan merger of early last year, that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have pressured and backstopped JPMorgan to maintain a manipulative concentrated short position in silver that they inherited from Bear Stearns.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
On the short term side there was certainly no bullishness today in the PM's once the markets opened. It was generally a slide all day long right down to $907 support. Gold stocks looked particularly weak with most losing today. A couple of the silver stocks flew against the wind which was interesting. Hecla soared while Coeur D'Alene gave back some of the 35% gain it earned last week. The other silvers stayed even or fell slightly. Overall it felt weak. The g:s ratio pulled back about 1% from Asia's run up hanging in the range of 70.0 to 70.8. With the dollar strengthening significantly today (bonds somewhat too in the risk adverse trade) this seemed like a good day to lighten up again. The dollar will probably move up for days. $13.23 silver looks like a distant memory already. Maybe Asia got a swine flu bump last night but the US market took that as a sign to sell off some.
Fwiw Barrick reports earnings Wed am before the open while Agnico Eagle reports after the close Wed pm. The next group reports May 5th to 7th.
The only US depression of the last 100 years was 1942-1946 - Howard Katz....an interesting read, and a contrarian view of the usual stats.
roadrunner
<< <i>Holding pm's you bought in the 1999-2007 period makes perfect sense. That's long term holding.
On the short term side there was certainly no bullishness today in the PM's once the markets opened. It was generally a slide all day long right down to $907 support. Gold stocks looked particularly weak with most losing today. A couple of the silver stocks flew against the wind which was interesting. Hecla soared while Coeur D'Alene gave back some of the 35% gain it earned last week. The other silvers stayed even or fell slightly. Overall it felt weak. The g:s ratio pulled back about 1% from Asia's run up hanging in the range of 70.0 to 70.8. With the dollar strengthening significantly today (bonds somewhat too in the risk adverse trade) this seemed like a good day to lighten up again. The dollar will probably move up for days. $13.23 silver looks like a distant memory already. Maybe Asia got a swine flu bump last night but the US market took that as a sign to sell off some.
Fwiw Barrick reports earnings Wed am before the open while Agnico Eagle reports after the close Wed pm. The next group reports May 5th to 7th.
The only US depression of the last 100 years was 1942-1946 - Howard Katz....an interesting read, and a contrarian view of the usual stats.
roadrunner >>
The last sentence of the 2nd to last paragraph is really what Mr. Katz is all about.
To explain his reason for people eating more meat. Simple. We were beginning to have drought problems. Farmers could not feed their cattle and therefore butchered them thus flooding the market with beef. It was actually cheap then.
To explain the increase in charity. It is compared to consumption. Charity did not increase, consumption decreased.
If he wants to compare investment returns over the last 9 years, he can call me anytime.
And I found a new investment (trading) vehicle. ZSL, I bought at 11.44. Its a wild one, so be careful.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I wish it would go back up over $17 >>
I would settle for over $14-$15
<< <i>I wish it would go back up over $17 >>
Patience boys, patience!
It won't be too long before 17 is surpassed
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
So here's my question to you:
Then what? Are you a seller at $17?
Do you have enough silver now to "make a difference, i.e. - make an obscene profit" when you sell at $17, considering taxes as well? Or will you be saying that you wish it would go back down to $12, so that you could buy more?
In my view, there's only two reasons to buy silver - to hedge against the effects of inflation thus preserving your wealth, or to make a big enough pile of after-tax profits such that it will improve your standard of living from that time onward.
I agree with SM, it will get there soon enough, and under the circumstances I'd make sure that I was loaded up for the trip, because this next time around, it won't be looking back.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I wish it would go back up over $17 >>
Patience boys, patience!
It won't be too long before 17 is surpassed >>
With a lackluster world economy and a stable $ juxtaposed other currencies, what is going to drive the price?
Today, the US dollar is the healthiest horse in the glue factory. That's all.......
I'm in for long term, and if things by some divine intervention return to what we perceive as business as usual, then I'm going to have a load of rather flashy fishing weights.
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
How did you come to the conclusion of a stable $USD? Looking at the USD chart for the past couple of years would indicate anything but "stable." The same is true for the $USD vs. BP, EU, AD, SF, and CD. And it would seem that after some bounce backs from 0.71 to the .86-.90 range that the USD would be headed lower. Deleveraging has been kind to the dollar in the short/intermediate term.
What drives silver other than a fluctuating dollar? Fear. Lack of confidence in the govt in handling the economic crisis. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Taliban/Pakistan issue. A continued weakening of the banking sector. Rising interest rates/rising inflation when that road commences. Note that pm's are forward looking when it comes to inflation (ie they started rising in 2002-2004 well before things got heated up in 2005-2007). The economy was lackluster in the 1970's and actually somewhat stable and looked what it did to commodities, not just silver and gold. A lackluster or falling business environment is compatible with rising silver prices, probably more so that when business is rising such as in the 1980's to 1990's. Silver tends to rise with other commodities, which do well when the stock market cycle is weak.
The 3 effects of inflation - Steve Saville
The above article gives an explanation on how silver prices can/should rise.
roadrunner
<< <i>..................and how long will the $ remain strong given the inflationary mismanagement and incompetence of utilizing "quantative easing"?
Today, the US dollar is the healthiest horse in the glue factory. That's all.......
I'm in for long term, and if things by some divine intervention return to what we perceive as business as usual, then I'm going to have a load of rather flashy fishing weights. >>
Which other horse will suddenly become more healthy?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
<< <i>"Today, the US dollar is the healthiest horse in the glue factory. That's all......."
Otis ain't that witty.
<< <i>
<< <i>..................and how long will the $ remain strong given the inflationary mismanagement and incompetence of utilizing "quantative easing"?
Today, the US dollar is the healthiest horse in the glue factory. That's all.......
I'm in for long term, and if things by some divine intervention return to what we perceive as business as usual, then I'm going to have a load of rather flashy fishing weights. >>
Which other horse will suddenly become more healthy? >>
Zackly. Gold bugs forget that their fave is part of a 3-way trade.
Dave, I enjoy your posts. You're one of the few on here that 'get it'.
<< <i>
<< <i>"Today, the US dollar is the healthiest horse in the glue factory. That's all......."
Otis ain't that witty. >>
True, except your Blake source ripped it from Ambrose-Pritchard in the Financial Times.
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
This period cannot be compared to the 70s as I believe that was a time of supply and capacity constraint. The potential for inflation was inevitable. Not so this go 'round.
I believe the role of PMs will be that of an alternative currency, rather than a hedge against reserve currency devaluation. This may or may not be bullish. IE, just because the dollar rises does not mean gold will drop. We have already seen some indications of this over tht last 6 months.
We have discussed huge trading cycles in equities and commodities lasting roughly 20-25 years. Perhaps, just perhaps, we can speak of a currency cycle lasting 20-25 years. The dollar has been in a downtrend since 1985, which is pretty close to the time the equity cycle started its move higher. Maybe the dollar has bottomed at the same time the equity cycle is changing. I think ignoring the possibility that the dollar is beginning a 20 yr cycle of stability or appreciation could prove disasterous for the unprepared.
We all know that this massive Govt intervention will lead to some "unintended consequence". This is usually something we dont expect. Perhaps the "unintended consequence" will be a rising dollar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This is the second time I have heard this in the last month or so. I wouldn't know how one would know this but it is not that unreasonable an assumption in the age of binary buks. Is there some way to judge the amount of money in circulation on a relative (dated) basis? I do think the system is quite fragile, particularly the cash basis system for purchases.
During hurricanes Rita and Ike as soon as the power went off here in Houston there were few people that could pay for gas, food, smokes or anything because no one had any cash but those that did have cash got what they wanted. Anyone relying on the flow of electrons to power up the registers and the gas pumps were SOL. So, without any digibuks, a large number of people were without the means to get what they needed and it was like that for a few days and nobody was taking any checks because they couldn't be verified; it was cash and cash only. In a time of real crisis, those digibuks are gonna be absent and the dead presidents are gonna be damn scarce...we've seen it here more than once. Not such a bad idea to have a few of those paper dollars stacked in the back of the sock drawer ($1-$20 only) for when this happens. Don't forget, most folk here are assuming that if they have PM, they can get cash...not always the case, particularlly if you don't have any electrons!
<< <i>For disclosure since I said I bought it, out of ZSL at 12.36. 8% return. >>
I'm keeping an "eye" on this stock...went up today
> those that did have cash got what they wanted.
Thanks for the reminder
The 30 yr USDollar chart peaks in 1985 and then again in 2001. There was a nice ramp up after the triple bottoms in 1991-1995. Considering we've been averaging about a 10% increase/yr in the money supply since 1995, I'm not sure how that will eventually end up in renewed strength for the USD without backing it with something tangible or revaluing.
USD chart
roadrunner
<< <i>I think with the amount of money printed + the recession ending in the next several months that you'll see a double in Gold/Silver in the next 12-14 months due to inflation... I just keep buying and buying 100 ozers... see you on the other side..... >>
What if the recession doesnt end in a few months? Or perhaps we enter a period of growth one qtr and decline the next?
Maybe there is a reason why the banks are not making loans other than the typical hyperbole.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But if things go REAL south, the paper cash wont be nearly as useful as the in-hand PMs!
In looking at miner stock options one will find an overloaded positions in May/Jan with the silver miners Coeur and Hecla, along with gold miners Yamana, Goldenstar Resources, and somewhat with Kinross. Surprisingly, Barrick, Goldcorp, Newmont and others were much more balanced. Yamana has a huge amount of call options in the May/Jan. contracts in a ratio of around 7-1. 70,000 calls seems like a lot of options for an intermediate. Coeur and Hecla seem to have a huge position in these months with CDE alone having 80,000 call options for January at $2.50. CDE has already advanced 4X since November and now sits around $1.45. It would appear that someone intends to show it the way to $2.50 by January 15th...with probably a breather first this summer. That would require close to $20/oz silver or higher. CDE/HL/GSS/AUY were all high flyers in the last run up of stocks in early 2008. They were also the most beat down in late 2008. It wouldn't surprise me if they were run up again this May and Sept-Dec. along with silver bullion. In fact, the big moves so far in Hecla and CDE have been in sharp contrast to the weak gold/silver market of the past 2 months, almost hinting that the option holders mean business, even if history says 90% of options expire out of the money.
roadrunner