You don't Seriously Believe Gold is Really Going to $1500.00.....do you??
dragon
Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
The bear argument goes something like......
a) The US and worldwide economic situation is as dire now since the great depression, and still gold cannot sustain over the 1000.00 area. If gold can't hold 1000.00 in this very bleak environment it never will
b) The US equity markets are currently in a bottoming process over the next several months and will rebound causing investors/institutions to flee gold and go back into stocks
c) Everyone and his brother is now talking about investing in gold, and this typically signals a long term top in the market
d) Revised agreements may lead to central bank selling in the near/mid future causing pressure on golds price
e) Gold is near its all time high while silver and platinum are only at a fraction of their highs making gold overbought/overhyped at current levels
Ok, make your BULLISH case for gold!
a) The US and worldwide economic situation is as dire now since the great depression, and still gold cannot sustain over the 1000.00 area. If gold can't hold 1000.00 in this very bleak environment it never will
b) The US equity markets are currently in a bottoming process over the next several months and will rebound causing investors/institutions to flee gold and go back into stocks
c) Everyone and his brother is now talking about investing in gold, and this typically signals a long term top in the market
d) Revised agreements may lead to central bank selling in the near/mid future causing pressure on golds price
e) Gold is near its all time high while silver and platinum are only at a fraction of their highs making gold overbought/overhyped at current levels
Ok, make your BULLISH case for gold!
0
Comments
There was such a huge ripoff of the American Public by the banking, insurance and brokerage houses through leveraged financial instruments that Bernake will have to replace almost all of it with printed money to fill the hole - there is no other way to pump the economy back up. An economy based on consumption & borrowing is bogus, and the printed money is just as bogus. Gold's nominal price in terms of a bogus "currency" is irrelevant. A price of $900 will be no different than a price of $3,500 - it's all based on smoke & mirrors.
b) The US equity markets are currently in a bottoming process over the next several months and will rebound causing investors/institutions to flee gold and go back into stocks
Yeah, that's the theory.
c) Everyone and his brother is now talking about investing in gold, and this typically signals a long term top in the market
All of the other signals of a top in gold have been flashing for the last 8,000 points in the Dow. Next question?
d) Revised agreements may lead to central bank selling in the near/mid future causing pressure on golds price
The central banks know what the game is. Gordon Browne was a real genius selling Britain's gold at $260, right?
e) Gold is near its all time high while silver and platinum are only at a fraction of their highs making gold overbought/overhyped at current levels
Either that, or silver and platinum are underpriced and/or don't have the same connotations as money at this point.
General comment - The stock market is reacting to the reality of an attack on the free enterprise system. It's pure & simple. The government has shown clearly that there is NO reason to trust anything that they say or do. All government attempts to obfuscate the situation meet with limited success these days.
Things are a mess, and gold is about the only thing left that can be quantified.
You'll have to come up with better attacks on gold than John Nadler does in order to keep gold down.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The bear argument goes something like......
a) The US and worldwide economic situation is as dire now since the great depression, and still gold cannot sustain over the 1000.00 area. If gold can't hold 1000.00 in this very bleak environment it never will
.....
The environment is very bleak but we have only seen the tip of the iceburg. Up until now, the majority of investors both large and small still do not appreciate the economic collapse the world is about to face thanks to what is playing out in Washington. Upward price momentum in gold will not take place until we see the present deflationary period end and the reality that inflation and more than likely hyperinflation is just a matter of time.
There are a lot of "smart" wall street and investment leaders who thought this new administration would make all of the right moves. They are now scratching their heads and saying, this is not what we expected of Obama. Almost every move he and his Fed have made are inflationary. Almost all of his policies are socialistic. Both will lead to a financial collapse.
b) The US equity markets are currently in a bottoming process over the next several months and will rebound causing investors/institutions to flee gold and go back into stocks
....
Their will be bear market rallies however it will be a long long long time before the market bottoms out especially if Washington does not come to a complete understanding that they are the problem and not the solution.
If these spending policies go through and no substantial budget cuts are made, it will be a decade or more before we see the market moving higher. It will then move higher because there would have been a full collapse and hopefully new leadership would have been elected.
c) Everyone and his brother is now talking about investing in gold, and this typically signals a long term top in the market
.....
No not everyone and his brother are buying gold and silver. The percentage of people who are adding pms to their portfolios may be just a few percent. Many of them are not adding significant amounts.
The pm market both in physical metal and mining stocks is so thin. Just take a look at the market cap of many of the PM mining companies. They are all small caps at best. When real money pours into the these stocks, you will see them all go up 5 to 10 times in value. Same thing for the metals themselves.
d) Revised agreements may lead to central bank selling in the near/mid future causing pressure on golds price
....
China is probably praying for that to take place. For communists, they seem to understand capitalism better than our present administration. They will be there to purchase gold on any dips caused by any selling of gold to artifically drop prices.
China has their problems but I give them credit for trying to prepare for a world economic collapse.
e) Gold is near its all time high while silver and platinum are only at a fraction of their highs making gold overbought/overhyped at current levels
...
I for one, prefer silver over gold on a percentage basis but recommend owning both.
Forget all time highs. In a few years, $1000 gold and $14.00 silver will look like a bargain.
Ok, make your BULLISH case for gold! >>
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Like I said, the best case scenario for gold bulls is a couple of months of consolidation between $880 and $1000 and then a rocket ship launch on huge volume, possibly on news of one of the wild cards I mentioned. If that scenario unfolds, gold $3000 is not out of the question.
Maybe rather than focusing on why gold was within 3% of its all time high less than 2 weeks ago, shouldn't the focus be on why the dollar is 26% off it's 2001 high, and why the DOW is more than 50% from it's all time high just slightly over 1 year ago, and why a number of mainstays on the DOW have lost 90% or more of their value? The problem is not with gold.
I am so certain of this happening within 5 years that I wish some fiat bug would come along and give me long 10-1 odds on such an "unlikely" event ever occuring. Talk about easy money!
You haven't seen "dire economics" yet. AIG for example is a multi-TRILLION dollar pit of derivatives that we keep bailing money into. And they are just one such entity loaded up with this junk. JPM is loaded to the hilt with them and their tanking share price is starting to reflect that reality. Wny do you think Citi has fallen to $1 a share? Why has GM stock now fallen to 1933 levels? Why is GE now at $6? ........answer: exposure to highly leveraged derivatives. Even Warren Buffet stepped back into the derivatives pool recently after being bit for a BILL or so around 2002-2003. He called them weapons of financial mass destruction yet he purchased BILLIONS of them recently.
The banks and FED have been throwing everything at gold the past few years to try and keep it "managed" to under $1000. This includes selling/leasing thousands of tons of Central Bank gold, massive JPM/HSBC/GS short postions on Comex, TOCOM, etc., naked short selling of PM miner stocks, JPM's $100 BILL derivative's short position in gold, JPM's $65 TRILL short position on interest rate swaps, etc, etc. All of this has been designed to hide and confuse the real issues at hand. JPM singlehandedly has kept interest rates low for years with derivatives. But they are now starting to bleed heavily. I don't think people realize how close we are to the next systemic bank shockwave....as if the first few weren't enough! JPM/FED/Treasury/GS have worked hand in hand to manage gold and $1000 was the best they could do considering they headed to 100% insolvency to play and try to win this game. Since 3 of the major indicators of future economic or currency problems tend to be interest rates, inflation rates (ie CPI), and the price of gold vs dollar, TPTB have worked hard at supressing IR's and pog while fudging the inputs to the CPI to keep it articially low for most of the past 25 yrs. Why did the world need $350 TRILL in interest rate derivatives, mostly created over the past 10 years? This is not a "bear" argument, but merely what we have. Now the real issue is how to fix it......and you can be sure gold will play a role in that solution.
Everyone and his brother is now talking about investing in gold, and this typically signals a long term top in the market
If this was the long term top then what was March 2008? There is lots of talk about it, but Joe Mainstream hasn't even considered it. The real players in gold are the rich, sovereign nations, hedge funds, investment funds, miners, and banks. And as a rule these aren't the guys you hear talking. Can you guess what type of people have probably been privately socking away gold behind the scenes for the past few years? More than likely the very principals that lead us down the current destructive economic path and have ridiculed and manipulated gold prices only to embrace it privately.
Revised agreements may lead to central bank selling in the near/mid future causing pressure on golds price
I've heard zero on this possibility. Don't include the IMF's piddly 403 tons either. The central banks have already unloaded way too much gold, esp the UK. Russia, China, India and others are buyers and will take whatever the Western nations want to dump. It's gold that would never make it to the PM markets, but would be a straight swap into national govt stockpiles. No effect whatsover.
Gold is near its all time high while silver and platinum are only at a fraction of their highs making gold overbought/overhyped at current levels
All time highs are useless arguments, esp in light of a 20 year bear market in gold from 1980-2002 and a totally bogus investment market fueled by fiat, credit and derivatives. The real argument is how far does gold have to go to in order to once again account for all inflation since 1980 and also balance the US govt foreign debt? Gold reached a peak of $875 in 1980 by balancing our foreign debt. Using the same equation today ($3 TRILL+ debt per the USTreasury) with 264 MILL ounces of gold supposedly on hand, leads one to $12,000/oz....seemingly an impossible number. Doing this same calculation back in 2002-2003 would have yielded a peak price for gold of $1650/oz. I'll leave it others to decide where between those numbers we end up.
Let's not also forget that gold has made new all-time highs in most foreign currencies including Euro, Swissie, Cando, Australian dollar. And things are not yet at their worst. The fact that many foreign contracts (esp derivatives) require settlement in USDollars does explain much of the recent strength of the dollar. If not for that, gold would have made new highs against the USD as well. Gold and other precious metals do their job when economies get out of whack. Platinum and silver are not yet currencies, gold is though.
Bloomberg on Buffet's derivative's risk status
roadrunner
(that you can actually hold in your hand) is only about 1/2 trillion I believe.
The national debt is over 10 trillion. Already, we owe 20 times more money than what exists.
And were going billions more in the hole EVERY day.
The buying power of the dollar is about 4 % of what it was 100 years ago
(in other words 96 % of the dollars value has gone ) and continues on a steady,
constant decline . Most "money" that people "think' they have, is mearly an electronic
number on a computer screen. If everybody decided to go to their banks on Monday
and pull out all their cash, if the banks opened at 9 am , they would be out of cash by 9:05.
They could truck more money in, but by lunch time , all reserves would be emptied,
leaving each person only a couple thousand dollars ? to live the rest of their life on .
Plain and simple, the numbers dont jive.
100 years from now, do you think some team of treasure hunters will spend months tracking down
the wreckage of a ship that sank, that had onboard,a computer screen that displayed a bunch of electronic numbers.
"Oh my god ! " they will scream in joy, "we found the computer that once said this ships passengers had $ 2,765,000
worth of credit they could have used in the casino, the buffet table or for postcards in the gift shop !"
We call Gold and Silver PRECIOUS metals for a damn good reason . They are metal, and they are precious ,by god !!!
Lewis
1980 (adjusted for the declining buying power of the dollar). Since we were not
bankrupt in 1980, but we are now, I would suspect $ 1,500 oz gold is pretty much
"owed" to us . If we can get these $hita$$es to stop manipulating the price down ,
we would see some action .
Everyone should align themselves where they don't need the "toilet paper" anymore.
You have had years to stack PM, and only a blind fool didn't see this coming.
Very soon, 330 million people will be forced to realize the toilet paper ran out a long time ago,
and now we are left sitting on the toilet with a little bit of a situation on our hands.
Lewis
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
One source I read states that 75% of the total gold supply now resides as jewelry, and mostly in India. That doesn't even leave a $$ TRILLION of ready gold to purchase.
I changed my mind on gold ever reaching $1500 because it failed to break $1000 today....only reached $945. Therefore it's toast. Please sell me whatever of the barbarous relic you have left for valuable fiat while you can get out.
roadrunner
Now, everything can change, and we all know that.
The dollar could weaken some more, sending the price of gold (priced in dollars) higher.
There could be another financial crisis in which gold is viewed as the salvation.
Oil prices could reinflate.
Yeah, anything could happen.
But right now... it's not.
So the reality for "right now" is that gold is still in its trading range of 800 to 950.
Hope and wish and pray and pontificate all you want... but nope, there is no evidence that gold is going to 1,500 in the CURRENT environment.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>You've couched your question in a way that suggests only one correct answer. >>
That sure didn't stop most of us from disagreeing with him.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
It would appear to me that naked short selling along with leveraged hedge funds being taken out by the shorts have caused much of the damage on wall street while leverage along with unemployment has caused the real estate bubble to pop.
At some point in time the trillions of dollars sitting on the side in fixed income will return to the market and along with the huge increase in money supply by the fed will cause a massive increase in inflation which will lead to a sharp increase in not only Gold, Silver, PGM's but also all commodities and stocks as well as people seek things which can possibly hold value while currencies start to crumble.
Another point to ponder is production of Oil, Copper, Silver, etc. has been curtailed as the prices have plummeted to below break even levels, eventually there will be a supply shock which will cause a huge increase in price as this will be the only way to pursuade companies to ramp up production again. At some point in the future unless things magically change Gold has no choice but to exceed $1,500 and Silver will exceed $50 possibly $100, Oil will exceed $147 possibly $200.
So, it seems that GS et. al. are surely playing both sides of the trade in that they are working the paper side to keep the metal down and in play at lower levels while they gather physical...and not for the etf's, for themselves. Evidence...none, just acknowledging the scumbagginess of the paper boys working the innocents and thinking what I would do. I would definitely be working both sides of the trade, using paper to manipulate the price so I could gather my shorts and then buying physical on the lows...same as us but we don't get to manipulate the paper 'cause we don't have unlimited digital dollars to play with like they do...we just have our own buks and we have to catch the dips.
In a period of bankrupt banks (kind of an oxymoron) that use digital money to manipulate their way from one trade to another and begging the govt. for more digital buks, we have a system of banking led by banks that are insolvent. I can't remember the exact numbers but I was reading that Citi was capitalized at 20 billion last week. They so far have borrowed on the order of 185 billion (sorry I'm not right on with the numbers but it's the concept that I'm trying to communicate.) So, same with GM...capitalized at like 2 billion and we have thrown what...35 Billion at them. So why not just buy the suckers, nationalize them, slash and burn, suture the bleeding hole. Just what in the hell are we doing? I can't get it, is capitalism realy dead, are we actually in a period of financial socialism as well as public socialism. Will we have banking oligarcs next? The follow up question is...at what point does it stop being money and just BS. I guess as long as you can get a loaf of bread with some paper, you got money.
Gold seems to be setting up extremely well right now for a move to $1200 starting in mid-March through April/May. I don't know what charts (ie technicals) you've been looking at but what I see on the charts and monthly oscillators is very bullish. The fundamentals of the world economy already speak to gold being at levels much higher than $1000. If the CURRENT environment is so poor for gold.....how did it get to $1006 again in the first place? Luck? Wishing? Pontificating? JPM selling off some if its $100 BILL in gold derivatives? I'd be very surprised if gold does not make a major move up to an all-time high in the next 90 days.
suspect that there are different things going on with the $1500 gold. Firstly, I doubt it will ever see that in the near future. Maybe in a total system collapse it could break the trend but nothing other than economic collapse will bring that to reality. Gold will be destroyed as an asset vehicle before that happens either by forbidding trade, confiscation, or some other method to render it useless as an asset to the commoners...it's just too destructive to the game and to the banks to let gold run.
I think you have gold confused with hedges, fiat, and derivatives. The latter 3 items are what have been destructive to the world over the past 25 years. It was a great run for the banks and large corporations while it lasted. The main financial players have done everything in their power to keep gold from recovering it's 25 years of lethargy...and still it has quadrupled. Imagine what it would have done if left unattended....probably around $2000/oz. Goldman had as many as 52,000 gold shorts on the Japanese TOCOM a few years ago. They just recently closed out their last short contract. Goldman has also been the leading source of actual gold deliveries from the Comex as of late. Hmmm, a little trend change here? Can a little bit of gold (150,000 T) mined over the centuries really have any impact of a $60 TRILLION world economy? After all, the world trades TRILLIONS in currency every day. The sum value of all the gold in existence is only worth $5 TRILLION...assuming you could even go out and gather it all up at once. If gold is so deadly to the world, why not uranium? silver? copper? oil? beach front property? clean water? So why piddly a$$ gold? I don't see its connection to the financial world's downfall....unless.....it's absence over the past 38 years has helped lead us down this path of inflation/low interest rate/max credit road that's deflating assets by the TRILLIONS in short order. Could this have happened with the gold link left intact? Probably, as derivatives could still have been taken hold regardless of that. The living higher off the hog in the 80's and 90's was a sharm based on borrowing, pure and simple. The growth was more make believe than anything. Maybe had we settled for a little less glitz and convenience in the past 2-1/2 decades we would not be having to wonder about how to patch together the framework of our broken financial system.
Gold cannot be destroyed as an asset class no more than you could destroy the sun as a source of warmth. Unless you nuke the world or find a way to make lead into gold. How would you really destroy gold? Banning private US ownership would do little. The other 95% of the world's population favors gold and gold backing and his lived with that system for a thousand years. Our little 38 year experiment without gold is apparently on the skids. It didn't work, at least not for J6P. Worked great for the big banks and the owners of the FED though.
If gold has no hope of ever going to $1500 then by all means, bring out full transparency because gold has no role except as a commodity. A useless barbarous relic. Then show us whats actually in the US gold stocks, do an inventory. Prove it's of no concern to the Central Banks. Sell off those useless gold stocks you have left, let the Indians make jewelry from it at $250/oz again. Free up some valuable fiat like the UK did in 2002 when they sold off 50% of their gold stocks for $255/oz (lol).....(actually, I wouldn't be surprised one bit while they sold off theirs publically, took in the same amount from a USA gold lease via the secret backdoor). Count the IMF and GLD gold as well. Show us who has leased out their gold (but still counting it as inventory) and who the true owners are. I'm all for transparency. Peel back all the layers of the BSC, Merrill, GS, Citi, and JPM derivatives, esp. the ones on gold and silver. Show us the recipients of all the TARP money. Go back and look for naked shorting on the stock exchanges. While you're at it, let's see who was heavily shorting air line stocks the week before 9-11. Let's see them all because there is nothing to hide. It's all good. Put it all under the sunlight. If $1500 gold isn't in the cards then something else has to be....like $250 oil or $5000 Tulips. Something has to make up for the TRILLIONS in fiat being printed globally. It just can't be swept under the rug.
roadrunner
sincerely
a fan of your wisdom
It's ridiculous that you should even have to ask where the "money" is going. It's ridiculous to bail them out, and it's ridiculous that there's no accountability.
Yes, let's engender trust in a fiat system run by tax cheats, by "creating money".
What a bunch of rubes the American People have been.
I knew it would happen.
I can see almost any conceivably high dollar level being applied to precious metals. Their supply is very inelastic and more closely models population growth rates than the % increases in fiat. Look what happened to simple "dirt" in Waterworld! Mr. Clean would have been arrested on the spot for cleaning up any dirt and tossing it away.
If there's no inflation why are base postage rates going up again? Doesn't the USPS know there is deflation going on and that gas/oil prices are at cyclical lows? Don't they read the papers and put gas in their trucks? Did the price of tires recently skyrocket from hurricanes that knocked down rubber trees in the tropics or did the glue to back the stamps become very costly due to a shortage of "gum blanks" in some south of the equator nation? Didn't anyone tell them that with global warming the net wind resistance against their USPS vehicles drops and their mileage increases? These guys need to get out more and read the Wall Street Journal, esp. the articles by Al Gore.
Do you think the base price of a 1st class stamp will ever go down? (hint...nope). First class postage cost 2c in 1913 when the FED took over and had been that way for decades and stayed that way for 20 years (sorry, I can't find a way to dump on the FED on this one). They didn't even raise rates during the roaring 20's when the prices of everything rose....due to, you guessed it, inflation. Yet, in 1933, during the height of the great depression, where FDR already devalued the dollar by 40% in 1933 by raising the price of gold to $35/oz., the USPS rubbed salt into the wounds by increasing the base postage rate by 50% to 3c. Where's the deflation in that? It stayed that way for the remainder of the 1930's. Seems inflationary to me. Well, maybe nobody mailed stamps, just hand deliverd them until after WW2. Would anyone here mind if the USPS raised 1st class rates by 21 cents in May rather than just 1 cent? It "worked" during the Great Depression!
historical US postal rates - actual and inflation adjusted to 2008
roadrunner
Ok, we can discuss how gold at 1500 can be destructive. Firstly, not arguing here, just discussing.
"I don't see its connection to the financial world's downfal'
Well, RR, so gold goes to 1500 how is it destructive? OK, so the etf's that have everybody in at 80 (Jan gld etf price) Now, it's at about 92 and if it goes to 1500 then maybe it's at 130 or so. Well, you want your money from your gld at 80 so you cash out at 130; you and about a million other people that got in at pre $92 levels. So gld has to sell the gold they have been holding...or say they have been holding or come up with the cash. Now they have to create a wad of gold at market price of 1500 and poof, they are out of gold and out of money and they go belly up. During all of this, with gold at 1500, all the people with comex gold that they have been storing at a $800 purchase price now want their $1500 deliverieries. So, the etf's need gold and the comex is having a run on its stores and poof...the comex goes into default. Now, the etfs and the comex are toast and everybody is yellling. This is not a very far fetched scenario and it is only by devine grace that it hasn't happened yet. Of course, all the shorts are toast as are all of the other etfs and all of the sudden (maybe a week) there is no gold for sale.
Destructive to banking...certainly; a comex default would certainly have considerable impact on banking. So, this would put the government and it's banking allies in very dire straights. Don't you think the banks are heavy into the etfs for their balance sheet as it's one of the few things that they can portray as a safe, liquid asset and all of the sudden it goes dead? Destructive to individuals, certainly. WWYD as pressie? You do the same thing they just did with Stanford, you shut it down, nothing goes in and nothing goes out, gold sales are halted unless you are a licensed broker at a level of maybe holding 10,000 ozs or so. Well that shuts out all the b&m's at least all but maybe a few. Now, your gold you have been ratholeing for the last 5 years is worth 1500 on paper but you can't sell it except to a licensed broker and they don't deal in anything as pedestrian as a few saints or a roll of eagles so you are shut out, it's essentially worthless. So, maybe you take it to Canada...nope, can't be transported across the border and that goes for international flights as well as Mexico. Now you have some very nice jewelry instead of 100K in what used to be very liquid metal. Yeah, somewhat destructive methinks.
There are even broader implications here but suffice this little diatribe as a supporting argument for the destructive potential of $1500 gold. Of course, we can all accept that the true value of gold is considerably more than $1500 but the reality of it selling for that is destructive. Oh yeah, I'm not a naysayer because I'm at about 25% of my assets in the yellow lady. OK, toast me, flame me but that's why I think that they simply can't let gold get out of control.
The total amount of gold in the ETF's is still a blip in the total scheme. The CB's claim to have 30,000 tons at their disposal, so what if 1500 to 2000 ton of ETF gold goes poof? That's why you should be holding physical gold in hand rather than a facsimile on paper. The Comex should default on gold and silver. It's a huge paper scam. And it probably will get to the stage where they'll need gold from London to shore up the NY Comex delivery requests. If ever everyone wants their gold right now, good luck with the ETF's!
I don't expect there to be a max exodus out of ETF gold at $1500 or any other number. People are in it for protection, just like many of those that have physical won't part with it on 20-30% runs in the price. That stuff is to be kept for the right stormy day. Gold at $1500 would be a 50% gain from here. Didn't the same thing happen from $650 to $1033? Did they empty the Comex or the ETF's...not even close. On the last run from $680 back to $1000 once again most of the ETF gold is still place. Regardless of steep corrections over the past 12 months, ETF gold levels have continued to soar.
The big banks are deep into gold derivatives, futures or other such nonsense, or at least what's left of the banks. I don't think they have a huge stake in physical gold. Whatever physical gold they have is off the books and stored away. Their goal is to be paper strong in gold to help the FED/Treasury move the PM markets. They are probably well compensated for doing that for them. Shutting down the gold markets and supposedly killing the local and national gold trade is really no different than shutting down the bank's currency and paper trading and seeing what happens. I don't think either one would be a catastrophe. If either did occur, I'll take my chances with silver and gold rather than cash on account in the bank.
Gold was jacked up in price by 70% in March 1933. It did no destructive damage to the economy. If anything it appeared to give the economy a quick boost in June of 1933 that lasted for 4 years. I think it could be decreed by the govt to be worth $1500 or $2500 or $3500 to help stabilized and re-back govt debt and it would be as simple as that. People would get it and gold will stay put at that determined number and trade....as it did for hundreds of years before it we closed the gold exchange window in 1971. I see no way out of the current crisis w/o rebuilding the entire banking structure and anchoring currencies to something tangible or a basket of tangibles. Gold seems to be a likely first candidate. Oil would be another. There are more reasonable choices.
If the system can't handle a $1500 pricing in gold (less than what it should be if inflation adjusted back to 1982 when it was $500) then the system has major systemic flaws, not gold. Banking has been destructive to the nations of the world. It's time to take back control of our finances and get cracking on producing real things again, not money laundering. $1500 is only 50% higher than the current number, many assets routinely make moves like that after extended bear markets. No one ever complained that stocks increasing 14X from 1982 was a bad thing or home prices increasing 10X was not good. Choice rare coins and other tangibles did just as well or better...no one complained there either. You wonder just how gold got left back at the station back for 20 yrs? In fact most of those gains were just inflationary effects if you use 1980 inflation calculations, not the bogus ones you see used today. Someone forgot to tell rare coins that there was no obvious or unusual inflation from 1982-2007...why else did they advance in many cases 10X to 20X? Just from hobby interest? But gold got the message loud and clear from the FED and Treasury (ie there will be no inflationary effects on gold for the next 20 yrs.....period....just watch....and we did)....until 2002.
After burners off.......
Curiously, it was Sinclair himself that stated well over a year ago that it would take 3 crosses at the $1000 mark to finally stay above it. The 2nd one just happened 2 weeks ago. The 3rd attempt is not far away.
roadrunner
The financial markets are still in a period of disinflation due to the credit crunch and financial downturn. As unemployment rises, it will put a lid on gold prices as unemployed persons rarely go out and buy gold when financial survival becomes paramount.
However, on the other hand gold will see a very strong bottom level of not less than $800/oz due to buying of physical gold for the ETF's.
The 2009 UHF's has lit a fire under the $20 Saints of all grades and we shall see a continued premium pricing of these old gold coins until the end of the 2009 year. $20 Liberties will shine well into the 2010 year. I see great prices increases in the pre 1877 circulated $20 Liberties over the next two years especially for slabbed/CAC stickered pieces.
I see a trading range of $800 to $1200 for bullion gold until late 2010 as this is a period of gold just gathering itself for another possible bullish run when signs of renewed inflation appear in late 2010.
Okay... just an aside.
But if you recall around 1981 when gold started to fall after reaching $850 an ounce there was talk that the Russians found a way to "manufacture" gold and at certain price levels, it was profitable to do so.
Okay... just another aside.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Simply I look at price charts, and gold has failed to pierce 1000 an ounce twice in the last several weeks.
Roadrunner looks at "wave theory," which is something I do not follow nor subscribe to.
Wave theory is a way to predict future moves from past moves, and it is not unlike other technical analysis.
But it is a different "school" of technical analysis.
While TWO technicians can look at the same chart and come up with TWO DIFFERENT interpretations of the same chart, if you add in a wave analyst he can probably come up with three or four interpretations of the same chart. (Okay, I was just trying to be funny here.)
Well the point is, different technicians do look at the same charts and do have different interpretations which is why technical analysis is an art and not a science.
All I can say is this: when gold shoots up through $1,000 I'll be on the bull with the rest of you. Until then, I'm not.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
FDIC in trouble? Nah, just send them more paper money. Nobody will hold the Treasury accountable. There is no rhyme or reason to what they are doing, other that to cover for each other's dirty dealings. If they have to bail out FDIC so that the sheeple don't get too scared and actually demand an explanation, no biggie - just send a few bails of electronic money.
At this time, it's ALL smoke & mirrors, and they are dealing with an unbelievably-complicated scenario. There is no solution that won't make the public really, really mad. It's now a case of "I want my free stuff!!" vs. "what the hell happened to my money?" vs. "where is the government getting all this money for these pet projects?" vs. "what am I gonna do without a job?" vs. "why am I paying my mortgage and why is the government paying for deadbeat scammers?"
I looked at Shadowstats to see what's new this morning. Nothing looks good, at all.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Anybody remember the episode of The Twilight Zone where the bank robbers hibernated for 100 yeares only to find that the gold they stole a century earlier was now worthless because gold could be ""manufactured" in the future? >>
That was fiction. The government manufacturing paper money is real.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I'm looking for Gold $6,700.00 and Silver $340.00 >>
What is your timeframe and criteria?
This was my take on the issue last September.
$8,000 gold by 2012!
Ren(gold)
Well the point is, different technicians do look at the same charts and do have different interpretations which is why technical analysis is an art and not a science.
All I can say is this: when gold shoots up through $1,000 I'll be on the bull with the rest of you. Until then, I'm not. >>
Moneyla, I must agree with you on that. However long that takes is unknown but in the interim I will keep putting some away for that "rainy" day.
I just hope you are a legal citizen and can prove it when time comes.
Anybody remember the episode of The Twilight Zone where the bank robbers hibernated for 100 years only to find that the gold they stole a century earlier was now worthless because gold could be "manufactured" in the future?
Yeah, this lame parable is mentioned once every year to so. It was science fiction nearly 50 years ago, will be so for the next 50 years. There are better odds of a gold-laden comet striking the earth and leaving a gold trail behind in the crater.
But if you recall around 1981 when gold started to fall after reaching $850 an ounce there was talk that the Russians found a way to "manufacture" gold and at certain price levels, it was profitable to do so.
Yes, and the IMF keeps threatening to sell its 403 tonnes of gold whenever it approaches a new cyclical peak. 3X already. Detractors also mention that the gold producers will crank up production whenever the pog gets too high. That works if people are willing to invest billions into the gold infrastructure and wait 5-10 years for new mines to come on line.....with 90-95% of those failing along the way for some reason or another (political, environmental, financial, etc.)
roadrunner
<< <i>I'm looking for Gold $6,700.00 and Silver $340.00 >>
Look further out; you're probably not going to see those numbers for a few more decades
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Regards
Kelly Strong
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But I must say that I love these Wal Mart prices on PM's...and plan on shopping in the "market" soon.
<< <i>I'm looking for Gold $6,700.00 and Silver $340.00 >>
There's got to be a comic in every crowd.
Ever since Germany told the US and France that it wanted the return of some 674 tons of gold, the price of gold has been falling. The US has told Germany that it will take seven years to return it. I submit the price has been taken down so that Germany's gold could be cheaply bought on the open market in order to return it to Germany. Reparation of gold by sovereign nations apparently creates a sudden need for cheap gold by those who are supposedly "storing" the gold in the first place. It has all the appearances of the "stored" gold is actually being sold or leased out by large depositories such as the Federal Reserve.
According to Chapman, "during the 1990's the bullion banks encouraged the central banks to lease their gold. The leased gold was subsequently sold into the market and that helped keep the price of gold down throughout the 1990's. But it created a large potential shortfall in physical gold that some suspect has never been covered. Germany asking for its gold back created a crisis of confidence that could have put a bullion bank in trouble. In order to buy the gold back the price had to be lowered so that the "players" involved could buy it at lower prices."
Just maybe the depositories are looking to not only buy back the gold they owe Germany but also all the gold they are supposed to be holding for the rest of the world. With that kind of volume, price makes a very big difference.
To all the naysayers who claim that the gold price is not being manipulated, ask yourself this - "can the gold price be manipulated." If it can be manipulated, there are numerous reasons to do so.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Was it real, or was it Memorex?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Another far fetched conspiracy theory to add to my list. I suspect, that one of these days, one may even be accurate
Yepper, right up there with "they're listening to everything you write and say."
Would love to hear your take on (1) the sale of 400 tons in early trading on 4/12/13, and (2) The NY FED's need to take seven years to return Germany 300 tons of the 1500 tons of German gold held by the FED.
If your bank told you it would take seven years to return 20% of your savings account (money you have on deposit with them), what would be your thoughts? Perhaps, something along the lines of "maybe they don't have it?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey