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Do you think the prices of modern cards will collapse?

With the economy in the tank, don't you think the values of modern cards will collapse? I just can't see too many homeys paying 80 bucks fo a box of crap. Agree or disagree?
Arriba!!
Arriba!!
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Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
individual collector. My view is 1981+ with fleer and Donruss being in the collection universe.
I suspect we will see fewer sets and cards in the next few years.
<< <i>mmm, breakfast burritos... >>
i will not rip them with my fists
i will not add them to my lists
i will not rip them here or there
i will not rip them anywhere
i will not rip them in my house
but i will feed them to a mouse
i will not slab them, fat or slim
i'll stow my dough, Burrito Jim
<< <i>mmm, breakfast burritos... >>
I like tacos for breakfast and plenty of hot sauce and a real cheap shot of 100 proof whiskey to wash it down. chaz
or
have collapsed...
Looking for 1970 MLB Photostamps
- uncut
Positive Transactions - tennesseebanker, Ahmanfan, Donruss, Colebear, CDsNuts, rbdjr1, Downtown1974, yankeeno7, drewsef, mnolan, mrbud60, msassin, RipublicaninMass, AkbarClone, rustywilly, lsutigers1973, julen23 and nam812, plus many others...
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
I believe modern key rookies will hold there value for the most part . The thing about getting the most
out of modern rookies is getting and selling when the hype is at its highest...Ala...Beckham and Posey now
Lat year it was Evan Longoria and the year before that it was Alex Gordon
Always looking for Chipper Jones cards.
Im a very focused collector of cards from 1909 - 2012...LOL
You were singing this song 6 months ago, when more people had jobs than now. And yet, the market is still more than holding its own and in many cases prices have increased. So methinks you're wrong. Again.
Burgundy
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
rare rookies of superstars = no
classic sets of superstars = no
vintage patches = no
signature cuts of vintage players = no
everything else= yes
I've been steadily collecting the stuff all along, but over the course of the last year, everyone else has been too. I've seen prices jump significantly...so, while I still buy '90s inserts, I've allocated more of my hobby funds to vintage because that's where I can find the "deals." By deals I mean, less fear of depreciation. The '90s stuff will only be collectible to the folks like me who wanted it when it was released but couldn't afford it. After awhile, I fear it, for the most part, can only go down. Super Stars and key rookies of course being more stable.
As a Frank Thomas collector, there are a few guys out there with extremely deep pockets who will outbid me every time if they put their minds to it. I do a lot of trading and a lot of deals off of eBay where the attention is much less focused.
I think the resurgence of '90s stuff can be attributed to people wanting their respective collecting fixes, but for less investment...the phenomenon has increased the prices on a lot of '90s items significantly, however.
means that the full impact of the declining economy has
not YET been felt. In fact, we have not even seen the tip
of the challenges that will present themselves.
Hard times cometh and right soon.
.............
Folks who have cash 24-months from now will likely end up
owning most of the good toys.
.................
Fun fact: Fewer than 50,000 NYC residents currently carry
more than 50% of the tax-burden in NYC.
What if all of those folks leave town?
MULLINS5,1966CUDA,nam812,nightcrawler,OAKESY25,PowderedH2O,relaxed,RonBurgundy,samsgirl214,shagrotn77,swartz1,slantycouch,Statman,Wabittwax
Ron
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>The world is going to end December 20, 2012 anyways- so does it really matter at this point? >>
According to the Mayan calendar, this is correct.
Steve
bucket
For Trade
I have several friends who will be facing the same predicament should they lose their jobs. One of my best friends just took a $5000 a year paycut to saver her job and she had to give up all her vacation/sick/earned time. So did everyone in her company.
I respectfully disagree that we are at the bottom of anything. We are lucky that this isn't reminiscent of the great depression because as a nation I doubt we would be able to handle it. I am not mongering fear, I am merely stating factual occurences.
//////////////////////////////////////////
The bottom is no where in sight.
There is still FAR too much optimism among the folks who
have not yet felt the pain. When the cheerleaders begin
to fret, we may be able to call a near bottom.
As the most self-interested person on the planet, I have
made it my life's work to grasp and catch trends and to
understand the power of momentum. The trend is toward
the sewer and the momo is getting stronger.
Since there is no real way to be SHORT trading-cards, the
smart play is likely to wait a bit before going LONG.
brian
Bosses usually know who the dead wood in the company is, and during good times, can carry a little dead weight. When things get lean, the dead wood is almost always the first to go, and if you are one of the more productive workers you have a better than average shot at staying employed. That being said, there are also times when it's just a numbers thing, nothing personal.
<< <i>"...I respectfully disagree that we are at the bottom of anything. We are lucky that this isn't reminiscent of the great depression because as a nation I doubt we would be able to handle it. I am not mongering fear, I am merely stating factual occurences. ..."
//////////////////////////////////////////
The bottom is no where in sight.
There is still FAR too much optimism among the folks who
have not yet felt the pain. When the cheerleaders begin
to fret, we may be able to call a near bottom.
As the most self-interested person on the planet, I have
made it my life's work to grasp and catch trends and to
understand the power of momentum. The trend is toward
the sewer and the momo is getting stronger.
Since there is no real way to be SHORT trading-cards, the
smart play is likely to wait a bit before going LONG. >>
C'mon Storm, you are good on a lot of things but I think everyone is so scared right now, everyone is working harder, and everything IMHO will get better. As the great investor Warren Buffett said just last year about this " "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."--Advice from Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett Investment Advice
Warren Buffett said in his recent Op-Ed piece in the NY Times "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over." Although, Mr. Buffett is speaking about his philosophy relative to stocks, I believe it also applies to real estate investing as well.
When the richest man in the world speaks, I listen and take notes. Even though this may seem to some like simple homespun wisdom, Mr. Buffett is perhaps the most respected investment adviser in America, if not the World. He started investing when he was a child and because of his passion and his focus, he is now worth over 50 billion dollars. I found his Op-Ed article "Buy American I Am." in the October 17th edition of the New York Times fascinating on many different levels.
Below are several more of the quotes and observations Warren Buffet made that I found most interesting and relevant to the world of real estate. What follows his quotes is my interpretation of how I think it relates to real estate right now.
Warren Buffett Investment Advice"In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky's advice: 'I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.'" Warren Buffett quoted Wayne Gretzky here. I believe many people are trying to outfox the real estate market, which is really impossible. You cannot. Each week dozens of people ask me when the market is going to hit bottom, and my answer is always the same. If we are not at the bottom, we are very close.
Hope this helps some of you turkeys. chaz
<< <i>For the most part, good hard workers stay working. Are there exceptions to that rule in unsure times? Sure.
Bosses usually know who the dead wood in the company is, and during good times, can carry a little dead weight. When things get lean, the dead wood is almost always the first to go, and if you are one of the more productive workers you have a better than average shot at staying employed. That being said, there are also times when it's just a numbers thing, nothing personal. >>
I have to disagree when I was younger with a family I had several good union jobs. When layoffs came they drew a line on a seniority list (start date) if you were above the line you worked, if you were below the line you were laid off, that was the criteria.
bucket
For Trade
Bosox1976
<< <i>With the economy in the tank, don't you think the values of modern cards will collapse? I just can't see too many homeys paying 80 bucks fo a box of crap. Agree or disagree?
Arriba!! >>
Who cares what you think
<< <i>I have to disagree when I was younger with a family I had several good union jobs. When layoffs came they drew a line on a seniority list (start date) if you were above the line you worked, if you were below the line you were laid off, that was the criteria. >>
Hence, the last sentence in my post:
That being said, there are also times when it's just a numbers thing, nothing personal.
<< <i>The world is going to end December 20, 2012 anyways- so does it really matter at this point? >>
How many times have people cried wolf about the end of the world at a certain year, and it NEVER happens?
D's: 50P,49S,45D+S,43D,41S,40D,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 241,435,610,654 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
I would add, however, that taxing and spending our way out of this will make the recession longer and the recovery shorter and more shallow. If there is anything to be truly fearful of, it's hyperinflation circa 2011 or so. We're printing money left and right and that will inevitably catch up with us.
The economy is pretty regional too. In Texas it's at best sluggish and at worst in mild recession. I acknowledge that in other places it is much worse.
RB
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>I just can't see too many homeys paying 80 bucks fo a box of crap. Agree or disagree?
>>
Sounds like a quote from the Joe-the-Heritage-hater.
////////////////////////////////////
Yup, WB sure proved NOBODY can call a bottom with total accuracy.
He has lost about HALF of his shareholders' principal investment on his
"bottom fishing" in US banks since 2007. He did it once before when he jumped
into the brokerage biznez and darn near killed his soothsayer reputation,
AND DID lose a FORTUNE.
Ordinary folks don't need folk-heroes to find bottoms, AND they don't need
weathermen to tell them when it is raining.
The pawn broker index tells me most of what I need to know:
1. Pledged items down.
(Poor folks have gotten rid of most everything they had.)
2. Pledge values WAY up.
("Rich" folks are dumping their stuff.)
3. Pledge redemptions WAY down.
(Few folks have the cash to buy their stuff back.)
................
I have absolute faith in the long term "value" of real estate. Sadly, I
can ONLY predict that most of it is unlikely to go to ZERO. In Detroit,
of course, SOME of it has gone to about ZERO.
This year, $1.00 buys me almost $3-worth of 2005 real estate in some
of the the markets I play in. $1 will buy me $2 in MANY markets.
Folks need to get used to the new paradigm that 50% off does not
automatically signal either a bargain or a bottom.
Almost everything that we cannot eat, drink, or sleep in is now at
some risk of going to near ZERO.
When I first started telling folks, in late 2004, that something was
"not right," I was roundly scoffed at. Some of those who listened
to the warnings are now MUCH richer for having done so.
Even in 2007, MANY folks refused to accept that we were in trouble.
I admit that I have no way to call a bottom, but I WILL know it when
it gets close; I am NOT close to seeing it, yet.
...........
My "personal" WB story:
In late 2006 and early 2007, I began SHORTing CFC at under $40. It reversed
on me a number of times, but I was still feeding the pot at $16.
In the fall of 2007, BAC - in part using WB's money - with the full support
of the govt, "rescued" CFC, and I watched in horror as my position became
mush back to $28+.
I cussed WB that day and was VERY nearly skeert into covering.
Happily, partly becuase WB taught us all long ago to buy fear and sell greed,
I added to the position and rode the thing into low single-digits before covering.
WB is a hybrid of a patriot and an international man. He has historically put
his investors' money in places that his govt asked him to; even when he
likley knew - or should have known - what the end result would be.
////////////////////////
//////////////////////////
/////////////////////////////
The card market is contained and privileged. It could likely shrink by HALF and
have little effect on prices realized. That makes it a dangerous pond to swim in
during economic downturns; everything can look "fine" as long as a few folks
with money are still battling it out for the cards they need/want.
I am FAR from negative on cards, I just think there will be cheaper days to buy.
Show me some REAL "fear" and I will start to change my mind.
///////////
Edit:
WB's letter to shareholders, today:
WB Not Optimistic About Fast Recovery
<< <i>Same as vintage...
rare rookies of superstars = no
classic sets of superstars = no
vintage patches = no
signature cuts of vintage players = no
everything else= yes >>
You're painting things with a pretty broad brush.
Rare rookies of superstars = depends if the production was artifically limited and if current "superstars" get busted for steroids
Classic sets of superstars = define "classic". Vintage (ie 50's and earlier), sure. Others, probably not so much.
Vintage patches = again, depends. Maybe the company purchased a bad stock and they turn out to be fake.
Signature cuts of vintage players = see above
Personally, I won't touch anything "modern" for the purpose of investing. Not knocking anyone who does, it's just not my cup of tea.
As for the economy, we haven't seen the tip of the iceburg. There's so much poo in the litter box that no one wants to touch it. Additionally, if the DOW breaches 7k... TIIIIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMMMMMMBBBBBBBBBEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!
IMO
edited to add:
<< <i>Edit:
WB's letter to shareholders, today:
WB Not Optimistic About Fast Recovery >>
I told Warren to keep his powder dry but nooooooooo, he thought we were at the bottom.
WB Not Optimistic About Fast Recovery >>
I told Warren to keep his powder dry but nooooooooo, he thought we were at the bottom."
/////////////////////////
////////////////////////////
////////////////////////////////
It's not really his fault.
For a VERY long time, he has been caught between a
rock and hard place.
The govt has a big stick called the "IRS," and every admin
uses it against WB.
He really has no choice but to do what is "suggested"
by the govt. He was talked into "saving America" and
there really was no way he could decline.
Also, most of the money he loses belongs to his shareholders.
<< <i>The world is going to end December 20, 2012 anyways- so does it really matter at this point? >>
I'm okay with this. At least I'll get to celebrate my birthday a couple of days before.
But as for the economy, I have to agree with storm888. Most of you know that I am an attorney. I regularly track The Layoff List on AmericanLawyer.Com, which documents attorneys being laid off across the U.S. Of course, which each attorney that is laid off, so too are some support staff. If you take a look, the list is quite extensive.
Personally, I know a number of friends and colleagues who are looking for work as attorneys and a couple who have given up the profession all together. Fortuntely, I work at a small firm and we're extremely busy. The major of my clients are public entities and they get sued left and right, perhaps even more so now. But if you take a look at the list, the firms laying off attorneys are the firms employing literally hundreds, if not thousands of attorneys.
I suspect a lot of these firms are extremely over leveraged. Leverage in law firms refers to partner to associate ratio. For those equity partners earning $1 million to $2 million per year, each partner has a lot of associates under him or her (but likely him). This is the only way to achieve the $1 million to $2 million figures. This means the partners are under extreme pressure to "feed" all those associates with enough work to keep them billing 2000 hours a year. But with the economy being so bad, the work just isn't there often times. The partners could "manufacture" work, but I don't want to get into the ethics of that. So the law firm balances between paying an associate $150,000.00 a year (and paying the additional support staff, and the malpractice insurance, and the office space, etc.) against the bills the associate might generate. And, as The Layoff List demonstrates, the firms are electing to reduce overhead by laying off attorneys.
Latham & Watkins just announced that they are laying off 190 associates and 250 nonlegal staff. I have no idea what those associates and staff were earning, but a $150,000.00 average for the attorneys and $75,000.00 average for the staff is not inconceivable. And, of course, those who do not already have a position lined up will be filing for unemployment, adding to California's budget woes. So there is no indication that the layoffs have stopped or that the economy has reach rock bottom.
/s/ JackWESQ
Modern cards have value built into them from day one, meaning there really isn't much appreciation to be expected.
<< <i>With the economy in the tank, don't you think the values of modern cards will collapse? I just can't see too many homeys paying 80 bucks fo a box of crap. Agree or disagree?
Arriba!! >>
Nah, you're safe. A sucker is born every minute.
<< <i>
<< <i>I have to disagree when I was younger with a family I had several good union jobs. When layoffs came they drew a line on a seniority list (start date) if you were above the line you worked, if you were below the line you were laid off, that was the criteria. >>
Hence, the last sentence in my post:
That being said, there are also times when it's just a numbers thing, nothing personal. >>
I stand corrected! I hope with this economic downturn we do see some changes in the hobby from a collectors point of view. We have to many different products so the market is still flooded with product. I would like to see fewer amounts of products eg: do we really need a Topps Chrome and a Bowman Chrome? I think the pro. leagues should license for the amount of sets a company is going to produce and not by time frame. JMHO
bucket
For Trade
Look at prices of "classic" rookie cards. High demand, high supply cards like 1989 UD Griffeys in PSA 9-10, Jordan rookies in PSA 8-9, Gretzky rookies in PSA 7-8. These card HAVE BARELY BUDGED over the past few years.
To put this in perspective, the stock market is down over 50% since the peak in Oct of 2007. Have the cards I mentioned gone down that much? Have they gone down even half that? Jordan rookies in PSA 8 were selling for $525-$625 then, and they are selling for $475-$575 now. I wish I had kept my cards and sold my investments, not vice versa.
When you see Jordan PSA 8's going for $400, PSA 9's going for $800, Griffey UD PSA 9's going for $25, that's your canary in the coal mine. Until then, the card market looks to be in pretty good shape. I'll admit, some rare and specialty items, high-grade T206 commons etc. have been hit, but for now, the core of the card market has held up pretty well all things considered. After all, they are just pictures of dudes on pieces of cardboard - who knew they would be relatively recession-proof?
Thoughts?
/////////////////////////////////
Gotta keep the contrasts and comparisons with like-kind fruit.
The stock-market in 2008 - and 2007 - was about "picking"
positions that were going to work.
The cards mentioned may have held-up just fine. MANY stock
trades have also performed fabulously.
Nobody is forced to buy a basket of cards and nobody is forced
to buy a stock index. Picking individual winners is what both
"investments" are really about.
It is purely anecdotal, but almost everybody I know well did
GREAT in 2008's stock market.
As someone who makes their living in the market with commercial real estate, as well as the finiancial markets, It is important to distinguish between asset classes.
As you are aware on every given day money flows from one asset class to another, investors are looking for the "money maker". I am not going to get into my investments as its nobody's businees, but lets look at pure facts.
First, in 2002-06 at the height of the frenzy in real estate, people were flipping contracts at the settlement tables for profit with only paper changing hands and no money actually moving until the last person settled. I wont bore you with how this was done but suffice it to say it was.
Underwriting standards were non-existant, appraisers were hitting numbers for the real estate agents on values that were unreal but did so knowing the agent would just get the next appraiser to get the value they wanted if they didnt comply.
The mortgage companies were divising loan programs that would include any type of borrower and speculator into the marketplace with little or no money down.
With any asset when the demand exceeds the supply the prices realized will go up (sound familiar with the low pop cards?).
Now, once the demand begins to fall, the value of that asset class will drop to a point where the prices realized are more in-line with the value for that moment. Thats why we see in our hobby some years hot while others cool off and then sometime later they are hot again.
Now back to the market, if you look at the "flow of money" you can see where the money is going on that particular day, sometimes this flow or as we like to say "trade" works for awhile but it doesn't work forever as market forces change the direction for which the market works.
Right now the trade is when the dollar is stronger you will see money flow out of the bonds and into stocks, hence when the dollar weakens the bonds will be bought and the market will be sold.
The market will always tell you what is going to happen, it is just as important to know what tea leaves to look at and know how read the tea leaves.
NOBODY can predict the bottom of this stock market, we don't know if commercial real estate is going to be as bad ( probably not as commercial real estate often requires larger down payments), it will have a down turn ( just ask AIG why they filied for Bankruptcy (huge losses due to commercial real estate)), but the amount of players in that market are just not as big as residential.
So, in the end, if you believe the company you are investing in is strong and has a good balance sheet, then stay invested, buy more, and you will be rewarded in the long run, (dollar cost averaging is always the best way to go for a LONG TERM investor) I look at this as an opportunity to own companies at very discounted prices that were unattractive 6 months ago.
The cards like stocks will have booms and busts, hot and cold. If you sell at the top of any market you are fine, if you are forced to sell when that years cards are cold you may lose depending on your original cost.
To expect anyone to come on here and tell you to look into a crystal ball and predict any card era, is just foolish.
Collect what you love, love what you collect, and one day when you decide to sell, I hope for you that its your years that are hot.
Happy collecting..and remember, the card you want is somewhere, you just have to find it.
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