The housing market problems, as large as they are, represent a tiny fraction of the total amount of derivatives created in the past 10-15 years. $5-$15 Trillion is a big number. But the Credit Default Swaps at $62 TRILLION is up another magnitude. If the banks only had to deal with the MBS and sub-prime issues it would be workable.
Unfortunately the next major wave once CDS's have worked us over are the $357 TRILLION in very illiquid OTC interest rate swaps officially listed by the BIS. And whatever investor losses aren't covered through the clearing system itself, will be litigated in the courts over the next decade.
jmski... it was this one line that got to me: "Our standards for disability are completely skewed."
Alan - actually, I didn't express myself well. It may not be our standards for disability which are skewed, my point was mainly that many people are claiming disability who should never be remotely considered for it. The standards might be just fine. And truly disabled people should be considered for disability.
My fiancee' works as a psych nurse. Her unit gets filled regularly with criminals who are trying to avoid incarceration by claiming suicidality, chronic drunks who can't understand why the hospital can't cure their liver disease (at public expense), and drug-seekers who try to dupe the docs into getting free narcotics. Not to mention a host of other fake problems, all of which we pay through the nose for - at a rate equal to some of the best hotel room rates that you can find in Chicago or LA.
For her efforts, she is likely to be threatened, attacked, grabbed, spat at, exposed to aids or hepatitis, and mainly from the bad actors, not the truly sick.
Those are the ones that I was directing my comments towards. What happens is that the money gets spent, and the truly disabled people don't get care. In her case, maybe 30% of the people that she has as patients truly belong there. Her unit has some folks who are truly nuts, some are treatable and some are not.
The others are parasites. That 30% vs. 70% ratio is my main problem. That's also what I see happening in finance - bail out 3 times more people than who should really be getting help, in order to buy the votes. And steal from the remaining honest people in order to do that. My response was pointing in the direction that we simply have to go, at some point - I was responding to a post that asked what we must do in order to survive, and at some point we will have to draw some lines that can't be crossed, or we are pretty much toast. Maybe I'm wrong, but maybe not.
No malice intended, at least not towards the truly unfortunate. Sorry that I wasn't clearer.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>OK, ok, okay..... I am so PO'd. I must control myself. Tellya later, otherwise I'll get poofed!
Ren >>
Members of Congress don't need a $4,700 pay raise. They should nullify the automatic provision that allows them a cost of living adjustment. It's hypocritical when Congress lambastes automakers or the financial industry for executive pay. People are losing their jobs, some wont have the holidays to look forward to because they are to busy looking for work.
Congress should lead by example and refuse the pay hike during this deep recession. Congress can enhance its image by refusing this auto-raise. A member makes $174,000, in the top 6 percent of Americans yearly income.
Some top ten Congress in terms of net worth: 1. John Kerry $231 million 8. Dianne Feinstein $52 milion 9. Edward Kennedy $47 million
Let your local reps know that this is unacceptable.
My father lived through the hyperinflation after WWI in Germany. He told us a true story about it. On a Monday, he slaughtered and butchered two pigs for a neighbor farmer, He was paid two million marks for the job (which took him half a day). He wanted to spend it, but thought that things might get better. He saved it until Friday, and it purchased two cigarettes. Don't sit on cash during hyperinflation. Try to run up a huge debt and pay it off with inflated dollars over the course of the loan. Food is always good to stockpile. I am not so certain about guns and ammo. They will work until you meet somebody hungrier than you with more guns and ammo than you.
I have grandparents that lived through the Weimar version in 1923. Interesting stories as I grew up. I thought, oh well, that was then.....can't happen here in America.
I'm sure we won't have that kind of hyper-inflation scenario. History does repeat but not exactly. There is always a twist that no one (the sheeple) saw coming.
Apparently the ratio of gold to silver increased dramatically in 1923 as the hyperinflation exploded. The reason - gold is more valuable as a transportable store of value, and people were beginning to flee away from where there was a chance of violence.
People made fortunes buying silver with gold, because after the hyperinflation was over, the pricing relationships returned to more normal ratios and silver regained its value.
There are some interesting photos from 1923 Germany that I wish I could remember where to find them.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
They proposed that on sqwauk box this morning. I believe it was 10 million per person and it came to about a cost of a quadrillion to the U.S. Government. In other words a thousand thousand billion 1,000,000,000,000,000
Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
<< <i>Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren >>
there is no reason in my mind for $300 gold until way way way down the road, the "deflation" we see will not be tolerated. once the printing presses go into bailout mode other than a balance sheet ledger, we will see gold go nowhere but up.
many i think (including you) hope we do NOT hit your $8 k in gold.... reason 1) anarchy, reason 2) i don't have enough 3) anarchy
I invested all my money in two things: 1. The company that makes the 'FORECLOSURE' signs, and 2. The company that makes the lubricating oil for the BEP's printing presses.
hyper inflation, It is very obvious , over the last 17 years the Australian dollar did very well, because interests rates were Higher there than in the US.
I would sell everything and buy dollars against other currency that will fall to more manageable levels.
notice the peak on the chart, we have been pulling back for some time now on AUD dollars, the reverse should happen to the dollar under hyper inflation. Higher interest rates=More investors buying USD dollars, because there own currency will net lower. continue selling AUD, and buy USD.. the chart speaks for itself...
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
So you are saying that interest rates will rise dramatically in the USA, and especially so vs other countries? >>
Well thats technically what it means.
On the contrary, it also means higher food prices, Higher material costs, and higher prices over all.
In my humble opinion. We already experienced the brunt of hyper inflation, it happened when oil went to 140 dollars a barrel. The only thing that came down in price was the oil, and gas prices itself. Higher oil, and gas has effected the trucking industry, and the consumer already.
For the most part companies have already priced it in on there products. We saw what happened to grains, rice and food commodities the world did not end. Metal prices also went higher during the same period so did iron, steel, copper, and nickel..
Higher oil prices could raise food, and trucking related company's that are depended on transportation to raise prices again, compensation for potential losses on there bottom line.
Higher dollar interest rates should move higher slowly, 4% to 5% from the current 1% slowly, and over time, not all at once.
Weather will have a greater effect in the coming years on food crops, more than oil will, unless the war does not end soon. This is because we are on the verge of even greater astrological events that are uncontrollable, such as the increase in the suns furnace, a increase in gravity, and the increasing tilt of the magnetic poles. Not Global warming par say, this happens much later, and trapped methane reaches the atmosphere quickly from losses in the frozen permafrosts that trap this extreme green house gas there. The major increase in green house gases comes later, because of that fact.
Question will there be a pole shift in the near future? Have you looked up at the night sky lately? Venus is showing increased luminosity, the earth is continuing to expand, the magnetic poles have shifted as much as the record shows. The sun is continuing to undergo a increase in peak activity. There is also evidence of Something big pulling on the farther most planets in the solar system.
Hyper inflation Ba humbug. Future astrological, earthly volcanic, and seismic events, LOOK OUT...
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
Sorry, stig. Venus is not a luminous body. It is a planet that is illuminated. Big difference. Most of those theories you mention are, at best, highly questionable.
Sorry, stig. Venus is not a luminous body. It is a planet that is illuminated. Big difference. Most of those theories you mention are, at best, highly questionable. >>
Honestly I'm just trying to draw a bigger picture. There is more to worry about than inflation.. Most of what I said can be backed up with scientific evidence. The past repeats itself, look there if you want to find out were we are going. I love charts, they represent the foot print of mankind, not just garbage we scatter across the oceans, and the earth.
Peace not.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
One line of reasoning I've read is that increased and completely normal and cyclical solar activity (sun spots) are a primary cause for the current "global warming panic." In a few years they will subside and it will be more obvious that we are more than likely trending towards a longer period of global cooling.
One thing we've continually proven over time is that the current "best theory" of most anything seems to be eventually disproven. The current rage to global warming with carbon credits to follow is a good example. The only thing making it to the front pages are what the media wants to present. And the media presents what the politicians and money changers want presented so they can profit from their association to these theories. It's always about profiting in the present and never really about the reality of doing what's right.
In much the same sense the media and it's string pullers have stampeded everyone into thinking massive deflation and depression is right around the corner. And once again, the majority will be wrong. But for the time being, they have been successful in getting everyone to stop producing, stop hiring, and cutting back on resources. The bankers cause these shifts and are about the only ones who profit by them.
There is some truth to that. Here is a current pic of the sun. We really havent had any sunspot activity in over a year which could explain why this year has been cooler globaly than previous years.
But I will still concentrate my efforts on domestic and global economies before I worry about an asteroid hitting me on the head or about a break in the space-time continuum.
In much the same sense the media and it's string pullers have stampeded everyone into thinking massive deflation and depression is right around the corner. And once again, the majority will be wrong
I have CNBC on all the time--I know, glutton for punishment, but all I hear about is the coming inflation. Same as I hear in these threads or other news sources. So is the majority in the inflation or deflation camp? I am not talking about 6-12 months from now, as I believe the markets already reflect this, but how about 2-5 years out? or 10-20 years?
it's (sun's) magnetic field goes though a shift right now...about every 11 years
sunsposts have been 'quietest' since records were kept
the earth's magnetic field is also shifting and reverses itself about every 12,000 years or so..going on right now
our solar system passes a spiral arm of our Milky Way, calculated to be about 35 million years, next pass-through... Dec 2012...although we are at this moment in miniscule fractions of passing though. er, or the sun that is
Few sunspots means more solar insolation. More insolation means an increase in temperature. Melting ice caps and melting glaciers also contribute to warming, since ice will reflect more of the sun's rays than land or sea. So with melting, more of the sun's rays get absorbed by Earth, as opposed to the incoming rays being reflected back into space. Many other factors (cloud cover, volcanic eruptions and the addition of fresh water to our salty oceans) must also be considered. It is very complex, since there are so many variables and factors to consider. Sort of like trying to predict the stock market.
If you took all of the economist's on Earth and laid them end-to-end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion! Google the 'trillion dollar bet nova' and see what happens to Noble prize winning economists that declare they have figured it all out!
<< <i>Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren >>
I do believe Ren it was someone Gartman was interviwing that espoused the "$300" gold idea and most of the panel found his observations naive at best, which included a quick housing bounce back. I have heard Gartman continue to press for commodities to rise, rather than fall. Not that I place much importance on his views, as I don't.
My real name is Jor-el. I am a scientist. My calculations reveal that the world is unstable and will soon explode. I am an amatuer rocket enthusiast, and I have taken great care to upgrade my deluxe model rocket for space travel.
If our world continues to show more signs of the coming explosion, my plan was to launch my newborn son, Kal-el into a collision path with a distant planet which has a lower gravity than ours. Fortunately, the seismic sensors were all quiet this morning.
Then I had to reconsider. Congress is bailing out the thieves and banks with horrible managements, the biggest thieves go unpunished, the Treasury Secretary doles out money to cover up for his buddies, the President does the same for his buddies that own the auto companies.
I finally decided to fire up the rocket and blast my son off into space. He's got a better chance of crash landing on a distant planet and becoming Superman, than we do of surviving this constant chaos being created by the slugs in Washington.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
After all the fiascos that occurred in '08, nothing will surprise me, including hyperinflation. Let '08 be a testament of anything is possible including severe hyperinflation.
Sorry, stig. Venus is not a luminous body. It is a planet that is illuminated. Big difference. Most of those theories you mention are, at best, highly questionable. >>
<< <i>My real name is Jor-el. I am a scientist. My calculations reveal that the world is unstable and will soon explode. I am an amatuer rocket enthusiast, and I have taken great care to upgrade my deluxe model rocket for space travel.
If our world continues to show more signs of the coming explosion, my plan was to launch my newborn son, Kal-el into a collision path with a distant planet which has a lower gravity than ours. Fortunately, the seismic sensors were all quiet this morning.
Then I had to reconsider. Congress is bailing out the thieves and banks with horrible managements, the biggest thieves go unpunished, the Treasury Secretary doles out money to cover up for his buddies, the President does the same for his buddies that own the auto companies.
I finally decided to fire up the rocket and blast my son off into space. He's got a better chance of crash landing on a distant planet and becoming Superman, than we do of surviving this constant chaos being created by the slugs in Washington. >>
Maybe I should have asked...are you ready for the next axis rotation? or are sunspots ruining your sex life? or is "climate change" showing up in your taxes? or can you take gold with you to Palenque on 12-12-12?
And by the way, don't you posters have a life, it's Christmas for goodness sakes.
It just might be...and in reading a different view for a change you just might learn something. The world has gone through a marked increased period of sunspot (energy) activity over the past 80 or so years. It could well be responsible for the "global warming" seen in recent times. Bloom tosses in the fact that the oceans stopped warming over the past several years along with some other "inconvenient facts" for the global warming crowd....things like it takes 1000X times the energy to raise the atmospheric temp. by 1 deg as it does to raise the ocean temperatures. If global warming has taken hold for the long-long term, why have the oceans been cooling the past few years, the Gulf Stream flow slowing, etc.? In his June 2008 article he did concede that increasing sun activity may already be waning, but that does not negate the effects of the past 80 years.
Bloom offers some interesting new thoughts in number of trending areas. In particular, we've already talked about his feelings that gold will play a major role in the future regarding DNA. Bloom is also an excellent currency and stock/commodity analyst whose views and charts on the market have been far more right than wrong in predicting major trend changes.
It just might be...and in reading a different view for a change you just might learn something. The world has gone through a marked increased period of sunspot (energy) activity over the past 80 or so years. It could well be responsible for the "global warming" seen in recent times. Bloom tosses in the fact that the oceans stopped warming over the past several years along with some other "inconvenient facts" for the global warming crowd....things like it takes 1000X times the energy to raise the atmospheric temp. by 1 deg as it does to raise the ocean temperatures. If global warming has taken hold for the long-long term, why have the oceans been cooling the past few years, the Gulf Stream flow slowing, etc.? In his June 2008 article he did concede that increasing sun activity may already be waning, but that does not negate the effects of the past 80 years.
....maybe he should stick to economics, and stop hypothesizing about Science. Volcanoes and earthquakes caused by sunspots, that theory is so bad...it's not even wrong. Talking to these people is like trying to nail jello to a wall.
<< <i>Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren >>
I do believe Ren it was someone Gartman was interviwing that espoused the "$300" gold idea and most of the panel found his observations naive at best, which included a quick housing bounce back. I have heard Gartman continue to press for commodities to rise, rather than fall. Not that I place much importance on his views, as I don't.
Miles >>
Reprise!! Gartman, otherwise known as G-Man, or worse by his friends, has now recommended (on Mad Money) BUYING GOLD "cause it has hit the bottom of the trading range". So there you go, more flipping and flopping and slivers from the slick dock.
Gartman, otherwise known as G-Man, or worse by his friends, has now recommended (on Mad Money) BUYING GOLD "cause it has hit the bottom of the trading range". So there you go, more flipping and flopping and slivers from the slick dock.
Interesting, considering gold if anything, has been riding the upper end of its trading range recently with apparently more likelihood of backing off than moving up....today's $25 move up notwithstanding. I wonder what trading range Gartman is looking at? And considering the very small volumes being traded during this holiday week, it's hard to get a real feel for where gold will go when all the traders come back to play.
Yes it is intereating RR. These are people that want to offer folks a quick in and out postion, almost options trading, as they fear holding anything, even something as real as gold; although, they (including Gartman) rarely speak of gold in the physical sense, rather some type of stock or company or mine; a piece of paper. Yeah, pretty thin market RR!
This was taken from the GIM site as Gartman's quote for today. If he is just looking at breaking/maintaining an upper resistance point (ie $855) then I can see his bullishness. Also mentions a potential "flag" formation that we talked about months ago. And yes, a flag formation that may take months to resolve itself.
What we shall note, here, however, is that it is quite possible that the "formation" gathering on the chart since March is a huge "flag" formation that may eventually end in an explosive rally to the upside. The daily chart of spot gold has our attention, as does the hourly chart. Should spot gold, on the latter chart, trading upward through $855 and remain there for an hour or so in order to prove its merit, our propensity to return bullishly to the market shall rise materially. Until then, we'll remain hard upon the sidelines, owning only our "insurance" position in gold, a position we think everyone should have, regardless of their political or economic persuasion. Ah, but should $855 be taken out, our interest in gold shall increase dramatically."
What we shall note, here, however, is that it is quite possible that the "formation" gathering on the chart since March is a huge "flag" formation that may eventually end in an explosive rally to the upside. The daily chart of spot gold has our attention, as does the hourly chart. Should spot gold, on the latter chart, trading upward through $855 and remain there for an hour or so in order to prove its merit, our propensity to return bullishly to the market shall rise materially. Until then, we'll remain hard upon the sidelines, owning only our "insurance" position in gold, a position we think everyone should have, regardless of their political or economic persuasion. Ah, but should $855 be taken out, our interest in gold shall increase dramatically."
roadrunner >>
$950.00 gold represents one possible target, although we have reached the upper trend line, and a decline should follow, at or slightly above this line.
That would mean The Euro dollar will fall, and the US dollar rises traditionally... as crude Oil will also drop In price to reflect the changing of the Guards. By summer time the reverse may be true as Oil goes back up, as well as Gold.. my opinion, I expect the dollar to go up, as Gold reverses into the lower trend line of the chart... Target $690.00 gold, and a stronger dollar... The peak on the chart represents the high for the year, the second peak failed and a lower high was seen, shortly after a break down in gold brought gold to a new low of about $750.00. finally gold broke down once again peaking just over $900.00 then falling sharply to the bottom of the trend line hitting a low of $709.00 for the year.
With a failure at or slightly above the current value of $870.00-$900.00 It would be safe to say the trend will remain bearish, yet to be seen...
Untraditional with normal currency trading, if In the next phase of dollar trading with Government manipulation, it may be possible to see the dollar go higher against the yen, as gold continues, as well as oil continues to go higher in price. Pure genius if it plays out with that effect, but very bad for the consumer.
Humblepie
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
$950.00 gold represents one possible target, although we have reached the upper trend line, and a decline should follow, at or slightly above this line.
Agreed. The current channel trending up that began around Oct 27th could in fact already be a breakout should we trend above $900 and hold it. Assuming we are in the 5th step of an upmove, a move significantly higher than the $875 upper trend line should be expected. The trending since Oct 27th appears much more "consistent" and cleaner of an uptrend than the gyrations that have occurred since March.
Comments
Unfortunately the next major wave once CDS's have worked us over are the $357 TRILLION in very illiquid OTC interest rate swaps officially listed by the BIS. And whatever investor losses aren't covered through the clearing system itself, will be litigated in the courts over the next decade.
roadrunner
Alan - actually, I didn't express myself well. It may not be our standards for disability which are skewed, my point was mainly that many people are claiming disability who should never be remotely considered for it. The standards might be just fine. And truly disabled people should be considered for disability.
My fiancee' works as a psych nurse. Her unit gets filled regularly with criminals who are trying to avoid incarceration by claiming suicidality, chronic drunks who can't understand why the hospital can't cure their liver disease (at public expense), and drug-seekers who try to dupe the docs into getting free narcotics. Not to mention a host of other fake problems, all of which we pay through the nose for - at a rate equal to some of the best hotel room rates that you can find in Chicago or LA.
For her efforts, she is likely to be threatened, attacked, grabbed, spat at, exposed to aids or hepatitis, and mainly from the bad actors, not the truly sick.
Those are the ones that I was directing my comments towards. What happens is that the money gets spent, and the truly disabled people don't get care. In her case, maybe 30% of the people that she has as patients truly belong there. Her unit has some folks who are truly nuts, some are treatable and some are not.
The others are parasites. That 30% vs. 70% ratio is my main problem. That's also what I see happening in finance - bail out 3 times more people than who should really be getting help, in order to buy the votes. And steal from the remaining honest people in order to do that. My response was pointing in the direction that we simply have to go, at some point - I was responding to a post that asked what we must do in order to survive, and at some point we will have to draw some lines that can't be crossed, or we are pretty much toast. Maybe I'm wrong, but maybe not.
No malice intended, at least not towards the truly unfortunate. Sorry that I wasn't clearer.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>OK, ok, okay..... I am so PO'd. I must control myself. Tellya later, otherwise I'll get poofed!
Ren
Members of Congress don't need a $4,700 pay raise. They should nullify the automatic provision that allows them a cost of living adjustment. It's hypocritical when Congress lambastes automakers or the financial industry for executive pay. People are losing their jobs, some wont have the holidays to look forward to because they are to busy looking for work.
Congress should lead by example and refuse the pay hike during this deep recession. Congress can enhance its image by refusing this auto-raise. A member makes $174,000, in the top 6 percent of Americans yearly income.
Some top ten Congress in terms of net worth:
1. John Kerry $231 million
8. Dianne Feinstein $52 milion
9. Edward Kennedy $47 million
Let your local reps know that this is unacceptable.
Ren
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I knew it would happen.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I knew it would happen.
that it will last thru the bad times.
Camelot
Don't sit on cash during hyperinflation. Try to run up a huge debt and pay it off with inflated dollars over the course of the loan. Food is always good to stockpile. I am not so certain about guns and ammo. They will work until you meet somebody hungrier than you with more guns and ammo than you.
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
I'm sure we won't have that kind of hyper-inflation scenario. History does repeat but not exactly. There is always a twist that no one (the sheeple) saw coming.
Ren
I think you're right.
Apparently the ratio of gold to silver increased dramatically in 1923 as the hyperinflation exploded. The reason - gold is more valuable as a transportable store of value, and people were beginning to flee away from where there was a chance of violence.
People made fortunes buying silver with gold, because after the hyperinflation was over, the pricing relationships returned to more normal ratios and silver regained its value.
There are some interesting photos from 1923 Germany that I wish I could remember where to find them.
I knew it would happen.
and it appears to be
<< <i>many thought this would be next after the auto makers
and it appears to be >>
Yes, and after this, perhaps the credit card companies??
_______________
Why doesn't the Fed just print and give 1 million dollars to every household in the US?
_____________
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Box of 20
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren
<< <i>Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren >>
there is no reason in my mind for $300 gold until way way way down the road, the "deflation" we see will not be tolerated. once the printing presses go into bailout mode other than a balance sheet ledger, we will see gold go nowhere but up.
many i think (including you) hope we do NOT hit your $8 k in gold.... reason 1) anarchy, reason 2) i don't have enough 3) anarchy
1. The company that makes the 'FORECLOSURE' signs, and
2. The company that makes the lubricating oil for the BEP's printing presses.
I should be Okay.
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
it is a good point to look at when thinking of who/what/when to invest.
most of the Alaskan gold rush money was made from equipment, transportation and other ancillary neccesities to gold mining.
I would sell everything and buy dollars against other currency that will fall to more manageable levels.
notice the peak on the chart, we have been pulling back for some time now on AUD dollars, the reverse should happen to the dollar under hyper inflation.
Higher interest rates=More investors buying USD dollars, because there own currency will net lower. continue selling AUD, and buy USD..
the chart speaks for itself...
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
So you are saying that interest rates will rise dramatically in the USA, and especially so vs other countries?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>stig,
So you are saying that interest rates will rise dramatically in the USA, and especially so vs other countries? >>
Well thats technically what it means.
On the contrary, it also means higher food prices, Higher material costs, and higher prices over all.
In my humble opinion.
We already experienced the brunt of hyper inflation, it happened when oil went to 140 dollars a barrel.
The only thing that came down in price was the oil, and gas prices itself.
Higher oil, and gas has effected the trucking industry, and the consumer already.
For the most part companies have already priced it in on there products. We saw what happened to grains, rice and food commodities the world did not end. Metal prices also went higher during the same period so did iron, steel, copper, and nickel..
Higher oil prices could raise food, and trucking related company's that are depended on transportation to raise prices again, compensation for potential losses on there bottom line.
Higher dollar interest rates should move higher slowly, 4% to 5% from the current 1% slowly, and over time, not all at once.
Weather will have a greater effect in the coming years on food crops, more than oil will, unless the war does not end soon.
This is because we are on the verge of even greater astrological events that are uncontrollable, such as the increase in the suns furnace, a increase in gravity, and the increasing tilt of the magnetic poles.
Not Global warming par say, this happens much later, and trapped methane reaches the atmosphere quickly from losses in the frozen permafrosts that trap this extreme green house gas there.
The major increase in green house gases comes later, because of that fact.
Question will there be a pole shift in the near future? Have you looked up at the night sky lately? Venus is showing increased luminosity, the earth is continuing to expand, the magnetic poles have shifted as much as the record shows. The sun is continuing to undergo a increase in peak activity. There is also evidence of Something big pulling on the farther most planets in the solar system.
Hyper inflation Ba humbug. Future astrological, earthly volcanic, and seismic events, LOOK OUT...
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Sorry, stig. Venus is not a luminous body. It is a planet that is illuminated. Big difference. Most of those theories you mention are, at best, highly questionable.
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>Venus is showing increased luminosity
Sorry, stig. Venus is not a luminous body. It is a planet that is illuminated. Big difference. Most of those theories you mention are, at best, highly questionable. >>
It sounded good when I wrote it..
Your prize..
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Are you drunk?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>stig,
Are you drunk?
No quit drinking,, about 4 months now.
Honestly I'm just trying to draw a bigger picture. There is more to worry about than inflation..
Most of what I said can be backed up with scientific evidence. The past repeats itself, look there if you want to find out were we are going.
I love charts, they represent the foot print of mankind, not just garbage we scatter across the oceans, and the earth.
Peace not.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
One thing we've continually proven over time is that the current "best theory" of most anything seems to be eventually disproven. The current rage to global warming with carbon credits to follow is a good example. The only thing making it to the front pages are what the media wants to present. And the media presents what the politicians and money changers want presented so they can profit from their association to these theories. It's always about profiting in the present and never really about the reality of doing what's right.
In much the same sense the media and it's string pullers have stampeded everyone into thinking massive deflation and depression is right around the corner. And once again, the majority will be wrong. But for the time being, they have been successful in getting everyone to stop producing, stop hiring, and cutting back on resources. The bankers cause these shifts and are about the only ones who profit by them.
roadrunner
But I will still concentrate my efforts on domestic and global economies before I worry about an asteroid hitting me on the head or about a break in the space-time continuum.
In much the same sense the media and it's string pullers have stampeded everyone into thinking massive deflation and depression is right around the corner. And once again, the majority will be wrong
I have CNBC on all the time--I know, glutton for punishment, but all I hear about is the coming inflation. Same as I hear in these threads or other news sources. So is the majority in the inflation or deflation camp? I am not talking about 6-12 months from now, as I believe the markets already reflect this, but how about 2-5 years out? or 10-20 years?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
sunsposts have been 'quietest' since records were kept
the earth's magnetic field is also shifting and reverses itself about every 12,000 years or so..going on right now
our solar system passes a spiral arm of our Milky Way, calculated to be about 35 million years, next pass-through... Dec 2012...although we are at this moment in miniscule fractions of passing though. er, or the sun that is
too much speculation and drama
oh, and about Venus?
since al gore invented the internet everything one reads in it must be true
moderators feel free to poof this, it won't hurt my feelings
Melting ice caps and melting glaciers also contribute to warming, since ice will reflect more of the sun's rays than land or sea. So with melting, more of the sun's rays get absorbed by Earth, as opposed to the incoming rays being reflected back into space. Many other factors (cloud cover, volcanic eruptions and the addition of fresh water to our salty oceans) must also be considered. It is very complex, since there are so many variables and factors to consider. Sort of like trying to predict the stock market.
If you took all of the economist's on Earth and laid them end-to-end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion! Google the 'trillion dollar bet nova' and see what happens to Noble prize winning economists that declare they have figured it all out!
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren >>
I do believe Ren it was someone Gartman was interviwing that espoused the "$300" gold idea and most of the panel found his observations naive at best, which included a quick housing bounce back.
I have heard Gartman continue to press for commodities to rise, rather than fall.
Not that I place much importance on his views, as I don't.
Miles
If our world continues to show more signs of the coming explosion, my plan was to launch my newborn son, Kal-el into a collision path with a distant planet which has a lower gravity than ours. Fortunately, the seismic sensors were all quiet this morning.
Then I had to reconsider. Congress is bailing out the thieves and banks with horrible managements, the biggest thieves go unpunished, the Treasury Secretary doles out money to cover up for his buddies, the President does the same for his buddies that own the auto companies.
I finally decided to fire up the rocket and blast my son off into space. He's got a better chance of crash landing on a distant planet and becoming Superman, than we do of surviving this constant chaos being created by the slugs in Washington.
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>
<< <i>Venus is showing increased luminosity
Sorry, stig. Venus is not a luminous body. It is a planet that is illuminated. Big difference. Most of those theories you mention are, at best, highly questionable. >>
It sounded good when I wrote it..
Your prize.. >>
I sat through that video and I think I need to get drunk.
Ren
<< <i>My real name is Jor-el. I am a scientist. My calculations reveal that the world is unstable and will soon explode. I am an amatuer rocket enthusiast, and I have taken great care to upgrade my deluxe model rocket for space travel.
If our world continues to show more signs of the coming explosion, my plan was to launch my newborn son, Kal-el into a collision path with a distant planet which has a lower gravity than ours. Fortunately, the seismic sensors were all quiet this morning.
Then I had to reconsider. Congress is bailing out the thieves and banks with horrible managements, the biggest thieves go unpunished, the Treasury Secretary doles out money to cover up for his buddies, the President does the same for his buddies that own the auto companies.
I finally decided to fire up the rocket and blast my son off into space. He's got a better chance of crash landing on a distant planet and becoming Superman, than we do of surviving this constant chaos being created by the slugs in Washington.
Ahhh!, borscht!
jmski, you brother from other Russian mother.
Renski
And by the way, don't you posters have a life, it's Christmas for goodness sakes.
Ren-clause
ed4sp
Ooops. That was last night!!! Too much borscht!!
I knew it would happen.
......oh boy, of course, sunspots
It just might be...and in reading a different view for a change you just might learn something. The world has gone through a marked increased period of sunspot (energy) activity over the past 80 or so years. It could well be responsible for the "global warming" seen in recent times. Bloom tosses in the fact that the oceans stopped warming over the past several years along with some other "inconvenient facts" for the global warming crowd....things like it takes 1000X times the energy to raise the atmospheric temp. by 1 deg as it does to raise the ocean temperatures. If global warming has taken hold for the long-long term, why have the oceans been cooling the past few years, the Gulf Stream flow slowing, etc.? In his June 2008 article he did concede that increasing sun activity may already be waning, but that does not negate the effects of the past 80 years.
Bloom offers some interesting new thoughts in number of trending areas. In particular, we've already talked about his feelings that gold will play a major role in the future regarding DNA. Bloom is also an excellent currency and stock/commodity analyst whose views and charts on the market have been far more right than wrong in predicting major trend changes.
roadrunner
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
....maybe he should stick to economics, and stop hypothesizing about Science. Volcanoes and earthquakes caused by sunspots, that theory is so bad...it's not even wrong. Talking to these people is like trying to nail jello to a wall.
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
The pope just pardoned him this month....lol.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>Gartman on CNBC predicts $300 gold. OK, I can't refute that as much as my $8000 by 2012. I hope we are both wrong. There may be more deflationary pressures on the horizon. It doesn't seem like gold wants to lay down now, maybe in the spring for a catnap. "Gold" is looking at the trillions being pumped into the system and not it's cousin, oil. "It" is anticipating.
From the late October lows to now, gold has had a nice run now above its 50dma. If that holds as support and moves up to the 200dma then its anticipation is growing nearer, jmho.
Ren >>
I do believe Ren it was someone Gartman was interviwing that espoused the "$300" gold idea and most of the panel found his observations naive at best, which included a quick housing bounce back.
I have heard Gartman continue to press for commodities to rise, rather than fall.
Not that I place much importance on his views, as I don't.
Miles >>
Reprise!!
Gartman, otherwise known as G-Man, or worse by his friends, has now recommended (on Mad Money) BUYING GOLD "cause it has hit the bottom of the trading range".
So there you go, more flipping and flopping and slivers from the slick dock.
Miles
So there you go, more flipping and flopping and slivers from the slick dock.
Interesting, considering gold if anything, has been riding the upper end of its trading range recently with apparently more likelihood of backing off than moving up....today's $25 move up notwithstanding. I wonder what trading range Gartman is looking at? And considering the very small volumes being traded during this holiday week, it's hard to get a real feel for where gold will go when all the traders come back to play.
roadrunner
These are people that want to offer folks a quick in and out postion, almost options trading, as they fear holding anything, even something as real as gold; although, they (including Gartman) rarely speak of gold in the physical sense, rather some type of stock or company or mine; a piece of paper.
Yeah, pretty thin market RR!
Miles
What we shall note, here, however, is that it is quite possible that the "formation" gathering on the chart since March is a huge "flag" formation that may eventually end in an explosive rally to the upside. The daily chart of spot gold has our attention, as does the hourly chart. Should spot gold, on the latter chart, trading upward through $855 and remain there for an hour or so in order to prove its merit, our propensity to return bullishly to the market shall rise materially. Until then, we'll remain hard upon the sidelines, owning only our "insurance" position in gold, a position we think everyone should have, regardless of their political or economic persuasion. Ah, but should $855 be taken out, our interest in gold shall increase dramatically."
roadrunner
<< <i>
What we shall note, here, however, is that it is quite possible that the "formation" gathering on the chart since March is a huge "flag" formation that may eventually end in an explosive rally to the upside. The daily chart of spot gold has our attention, as does the hourly chart. Should spot gold, on the latter chart, trading upward through $855 and remain there for an hour or so in order to prove its merit, our propensity to return bullishly to the market shall rise materially. Until then, we'll remain hard upon the sidelines, owning only our "insurance" position in gold, a position we think everyone should have, regardless of their political or economic persuasion. Ah, but should $855 be taken out, our interest in gold shall increase dramatically."
roadrunner >>
$950.00 gold represents one possible target, although we have reached the upper trend line, and a decline should follow, at or slightly above this line.
That would mean The Euro dollar will fall, and the US dollar rises traditionally...
as crude Oil will also drop In price to reflect the changing of the Guards.
By summer time the reverse may be true as Oil goes back up, as well as Gold..
my opinion,
I expect the dollar to go up, as Gold reverses into the lower trend line of the chart...
Target $690.00 gold, and a stronger dollar...
The peak on the chart represents the high for the year, the second peak failed and a lower high was seen, shortly after a break down in gold brought gold to a new low of about $750.00.
finally gold broke down once again peaking just over $900.00 then falling sharply to the bottom of the trend line hitting a low of $709.00 for the year.
With a failure at or slightly above the current value of $870.00-$900.00
It would be safe to say the trend will remain bearish, yet to be seen...
Untraditional with normal currency trading, if In the next phase of dollar trading with Government manipulation, it may be possible to see the dollar go higher against the yen, as gold continues, as well as oil continues to go higher in price. Pure genius if it plays out with that effect, but very bad for the consumer.
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Ren
Agreed. The current channel trending up that began around Oct 27th could in fact already be a breakout should we trend above $900 and hold it. Assuming we are in the 5th step of an upmove, a move significantly higher than the $875 upper trend line should be expected. The trending since Oct 27th appears much more "consistent" and cleaner of an uptrend than the gyrations that have occurred since March.
roadrunner