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Silver Question mainly for the anti silver people on board
Danny9995
Posts: 115
I have a question for anyone who will answer it. I was wondering, what do you think silver will do in lets say the next 5 to 7 years?
I know there is a lot of crazy talk by some of the silver bulls. I have heard $500 an ounce silver will be here soon, I have heard that there is more gold than silver, I have heard that 1000 ounces of silver should be able to buy the median priced home in Beverly Hills, Ca. , We have all heard that silver contracts were going to default, and everyone has heard constant refusal to accept the fact that there is a lot alot alot alot of silver in the world. Yes 600,000,000 ounces per year mined is true. I have seen that in about 5 independent sources now. I agree a lot of the bullish talk here is more dreaming than reality, yet I still believe silver will do very well in the near future which I am calling 5-7 maybe even 10 years.
Now what I am wondering is this. Do you seemingly anti silver people think silver is going to fall or are you just reacting to all the crazy bullish talk that seems to be everywhere when it comes to silver ? If I say I am looking at a target for silver of $30 within 7 years, do you think I am nuts? So what I am saying is do you think silver just sucks, or do you think it will do OK but not reach the crazy levels that many people expect.
Thanks
I know there is a lot of crazy talk by some of the silver bulls. I have heard $500 an ounce silver will be here soon, I have heard that there is more gold than silver, I have heard that 1000 ounces of silver should be able to buy the median priced home in Beverly Hills, Ca. , We have all heard that silver contracts were going to default, and everyone has heard constant refusal to accept the fact that there is a lot alot alot alot of silver in the world. Yes 600,000,000 ounces per year mined is true. I have seen that in about 5 independent sources now. I agree a lot of the bullish talk here is more dreaming than reality, yet I still believe silver will do very well in the near future which I am calling 5-7 maybe even 10 years.
Now what I am wondering is this. Do you seemingly anti silver people think silver is going to fall or are you just reacting to all the crazy bullish talk that seems to be everywhere when it comes to silver ? If I say I am looking at a target for silver of $30 within 7 years, do you think I am nuts? So what I am saying is do you think silver just sucks, or do you think it will do OK but not reach the crazy levels that many people expect.
Thanks
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Comments
I have just been thinking to myself, HOW can these people by so Anti-PM when the US govt has already spent $1 trillion in bailout money, and it will be $5 Trillion plus before its done. Seems to me, everyone would be bullish on PM. The only thing I can figure is that they are not so much anti PM, but rather they are responding negatively to the silliness put out by some of the PM Bulls. I was reading one that was saying silver would be $500 and gold $10,000 within 2 years.
<< <i> If I say I am looking at a target for silver of $30 within 7 years, do you think I am nuts? >>
YES
Late last year, and the earlier part of this year. The silver "experts" were calling for 25 dollar silver.
Now it's hovering in the 9 to 10 dollar range... As in the stock market. You never know what will happen.
And anyone trying to convince other wise is surely foolish...
As with any investment. Buy when you feel it is at a low for the value. Watch on a daily basis. And sell when
you feel the demand for what you are investing in dies...
GM seems a good deal at 3 bucks as does Ford at a buck fifty.... But a single act by either one renders your
investment worthless....
<< <i>I think it will bounce around and never amount to much of anything, except for the occasional price spike. Personally, I don't care. I buy some 90% silver halves from time to time because I like the look and the feel and the sound of the silver. It reminds me of a time long when this country was not such a cheap, rip-off your fellow man to make a sleazy quick buck kind of place, and when the money in your pocket was money.
It may or may not save my bacon but I will still buy it and hold it just because I want to. I won't go crazy with it, but at the same time if it adds up to a substantial pile, well, cool!
If I come to the end of the road and I still have it I'll pass it along to my niece and nephews and they can marvel at what real money used to be like, before they run off to figure out how they can sell it to buy stuff.... >>
Best advice I have seen in a long time.....
All the people that say we're running out of silver are nuts.
Ray
<< <i>Silver will go back down to $4 to $5 an ounce.
All the people that say we're running out of silver are nuts.
Ray >>
NOT !
<< If I say I am looking at a target for silver of $30 within 7 years, do you think I am nuts? >>
YES
Late last year, and the earlier part of this year. The silver "experts" were calling for 25 dollar silver.
Now it's hovering in the 9 to 10 dollar range... As in the stock market. You never know what will happen.
And anyone trying to convince other wise is surely foolish...
This is the calm before the next storm. We might see $5 silver and $30 oil again, but I'm also convinced that $200 oil and $50 silver is also not too far away either. A simple review of the 1970's (the first nearly all fiat decade where commodities thrived) will show how large silver and gold corrections were expected to occur just before the real moves. As currencies evaporate in a sea of paper, commodities of all types will assert themselves.
roadrunner
Silver and gold don't produce income, but neither has ever become worthless.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
What makes you so sure that they'll ever be "done"?
Now, I knew a man up in Washington.........
And I ain't namin' names.............
Well, he really worked me over good.........
Just like Jesse James..........
Oh, oh, pitiful me.........poor poor pitiful me.......
<apologies to Linda Ronstadt>
I knew it would happen.
<< <i><apologies to Linda Ronstadt> >>
Actually, you mean Warren Zevon.
Linda used to do a cover of it, but it's Waren's song, music and Lyrics.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
You're right. I hadn't researched the writer.
I knew it would happen.
I'm a silver bull... I collect it for a few reasons:
1. I like silver. It's shiny, pretty, and intrensically valuable ... ohhh pretty
2. I also believe that it is undervalued as a PM
3. I also like to keep it in case of diaster (financial system collapse, collapse of the dollar, run-away inflation...)
4. I think it is a good investment
I think that $50 in 5 years is very reasonable. Inflation alone should push the cost that high IF the US pulls through this mess in decent shape. And if the USD is unpegged in world trade, silver and gold will be one of the only ways to survive.
There's my $.02!
I was a stock broker for a few years and a day trader for many years before that. I LOVED the stock market as it fed my love of gambling but with the need for a certain intelligence and research ability in order to do well. I have always loved to research things in school and it was the primary reason I have a bachelors of science degree (zoology, chemistry minor). Noticed I said "loved" the market. The last few months I have been scared to be in the market. Through the dot com bust and the 9/11 downturn, I always was positive about the ability of our country to bounce back. I am no longer so sure.
I have, for the first time in my life, bought gold. I have collected Morgans for a while, so have silver in some quantity, but I collected those for numismatic purposes, now I look at them as a silver holding. I am truly hoping I am totally wrong in my thinking, but I would not old my breath. Is it possible for the US to borrow so much as to eventually default on its loans? If so, then what happens? Dollar revaluation? World chaos? If any of the major banks crumble, yes, gold and silver will fly off the charts as the dollar falls into oblivion. If the economy stablizes and the preferred stocks the government received as part of the bailout skyrocket, the government will make out well and the country may start to pay off that debt. It is too early to tell, but it is better to be safe than sorry.
Perry
Morgan, modern sets, circulated Kennedys, and Wisconsin error leaf quarter Collector
First (and only - so far) Official "You Suck" Award from Russ 2/9/07
Viva` the Precious Metals!
<< <i>I really don't think anyone here could be anti-silver or anti-gold or anti-platinum!!
Viva` the Precious Metals! >>
Well said ..... I'm anti doom sayers predicting immenent Armagedon, with warnings that PM's will be the cure all when the $ is flushed down the toilet in value ... Gold at 10K & silver at $200 per oz....give me a break..
Like most of you, I care about today, tomorrow, and the next six months. Okay, I'll stretch it a bit... I have some 12 month CDs.
I am not going to buy or sell silver today based on a projected price for five years from now.
I am going to buy or sell silver today based on what will happen over the next several weeks or months.
I've always thought of silver as being undervalued. If I had to choose between buying gold and silver, I would choose silver.
But right now, I don't think the metals are ready to make any significant move. I would stick to cash.
Ask me again in a couple of months.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>Im 56 years old, and to be honest, I don't know if I will be alive in five years. I also don't know what will happen to the price of silver in five years. And there is a connection here --- five years is not in my time frame for interest or concern.
Like most of you, I care about today, tomorrow, and the next six months. Okay, I'll stretch it a bit... I have some 12 month CDs.
I am not going to buy or sell silver today based on a projected price for five years from now.
I am going to buy or sell silver today based on what will happen over the next several weeks or months.
I've always thought of silver as being undervalued. If I had to choose between buying gold and silver, I would choose silver.
But right now, I don't think the metals are ready to make any significant move. I would stick to cash.
Ask me again in a couple of months.
Alan, although I agree with your thought process I have to say I find your 6 month investment horizon as highly dangerous.
My point is, I find it easier (not 100% foolproof) identifying the longer major trends than identifying the short 6 month trends.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
I can have a better handle on what will happen over the next six months. I dont have a clue as to what will happen five years from now.
For example, and this is a simple example: if gold should break out to a new high of $1,100 an ounce next week, I can reasonably anticipate that gold will push even higher in the coming days or even weeks.
But will gold still be at $1100 or $1200 in five years? Heck, I have no idea.
This is why I follow Stan Weinstein's technical advice of "buy high and sell higher." Use short term gains to build your profits, and reduce long term risk. It has always served me well.
If you want to invest for the long term, and are willing to endure peaks and valleys, go ahead. you are a better man than I. i can't endure that. I want the quick profit that is locked up.
cheers.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
You're not serious are you? Think about the estimates on the cost of the Iraq War, the cost of Fannie and Freddie, the cost of the $700BILL bailout, the cost of the entire bailout, etc. etc.
The govt has routinely been off by factors of 5 to 10 on such estimates. That's what they do. They tell the people the best news possible at first. I'd be very surprised if the final tally for all the derivatives carnage doesn't fall into the $20 to $50 TRILLION range. And it could be higher. Imo it's unlikely to be lower. We're already around $7 TRILL and not even 1/3 of the way through this. The costs will start to accelerate as well so that a couple of TRILLION could show up in a week.
roadrunner
I owned a large quantity of silver in the 1970s and sold it in late 1979. I haven't wanted any since. Back then silver was at least useful for developing photographs. With the advent of digital photography, a formerly huge industrial use for silver is gone.
You people who think the world revolves around silver are kidding yourselves. It's an unimportant metal. It's not going to $50 an ounce or anywhere near that. When silver went up in 1979 and 80, you wouldn't believe how much silver came out of the woodwork. People sold off their sterling flatware, silver keepsakes with sentimental value, family coins, etc. People's willingness to part with such objects as the price of silver rises will keep it from rising too high.
While much of the silver used in photography could be recycled, industrial uses today consume silver, permanently removing it from the supply. It disappears forever in cell phones, computers, and other electronics. And if you're accurate that people sold off their silverware three decades ago, that's gone, too, along with the billions of ounces sold off from the US national stockpile.
The rest of the story: LINK
Try posting some facts, instead of mistaken assumptions.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
Well...some people here have bought homes with their silver. Fancy that. They would have been very surprised to hear that silver has no value except as a "lego stack" to stare at and play with.
Silver can be used to buy other things. It can be easily exchanged into currency to accomplish that task. It is actually more "cash-like" than FRN notes for example. And there are many who would accept it for payment for other goods/services in its physical form. You can go to any coin show and buy coins with silver bar and coin. In many other parts of the world silver performs like money. FRN notes are purely a promise to pay....and only as good as the govt backing it. Silver is not a promise, it has value just as it sits. And unless you didn't notice, it has generally been climbing in price over the past 7 years when the value of the FRN was falling. Sorry that you didn't buy silver for a 2nd time in 2000-2001 when it was dirt cheap. It has outperformed all the stock market indicies (except possibly the CRB) since that time. All the silver that came out of the woodwork in 1978-1980 has pretty much been consumed, including the billions of ounces once part of the US stockpile. When silver does hit $50 an ounce, you'll no doubt be wondering why you never bought some when it was dirt cheap a second time.
roadrunner
<< <i>When silver does hit $50 an ounce, you'll no doubt be wondering why you never bought some when it was dirt cheap a second time. >>
Keep dreaming.
that is not accurate at all. old computer boards, cell phones, and etc
are all crushed up now days to recover the PMs. It is a budding new
business line.
and i might as well tell my story around it. I work at an ISP.
last week i got 11 cents per pound for lead acid batteries. $$$
this summer i made 1500 bucks on computer cables at the scrap yard. $$$
a ton of old boards that had gold pin connectors were thrown in a box
and sold to a recycler. (i did not get that money :-( ) $$$
etc...
this has been going on for years and years. gold silver plat etc..
<< <i>I hope you're playing the role of a devil's advocate here, because you're so far off the mark it isn't even funny. Industrial demand has replaced the demand for photography. >>
Your chart only goes back 10 years, I had a digital camera back then.
>>
While much of the silver used in photography could be recycled, industrial uses today consume silver, permanently removing it from the supply. It disappears forever in cell phones, computers, and other electronics. And if you're accurate that people sold off their silverware three decades ago, that's gone, too, along with the billions of ounces sold off from the US national stockpile. >>
If silver goes as high as you guys dream, silver from electronics will be recycled, if it isn't already.
>>
Try posting some facts, instead of mistaken assumptions. >>
I heard the same nonsense 30 years ago that you guys spout now. Buying and holding silver long term is a losing investment idea. If the price of silver gets too high industry will use substitutes and regular people will sell their silver.
I'd say the odds are > 90% at this point to see $50 silver within 5 years. Not a dream. Just the reality of having $1,100 TRILLION in derivatives to settle. The true dreamers are the ones who still think the financial system is not broken and will recover with Treasury bailouts.
roadrunner
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>Most of Europe is anti-silver for an investment, at least. Silver as an investment carries a 10% or more VAT. Gold is exempt. The VAT kills most people's interest. >>
Where do you get that idea from?
Most Europeans that I chat with on another PM forum are desperately trying to find & purchase silver.
Also the UK has dropped the Ag VAT by half.
New uses for silver are constantly being discovered.
Already newer uses are more than replacing the losses from the photograpic industry.
Regards,
John
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
Can you really believe silver is a losing investment ? You can buy it today for $12-$13 an ounce, do you really believe it is going to be lower long term ? The US gov't has already blown $10 Trillion on these bailouts and soon it will be several times that. In that enviornment, I just dont see how silver falls much lower. I dont know if I agree with roadrunner that silver will be $50 in 5 years ( although I hope he is right), but I just cant see how silver falls from its current position long term. In 5 years, I see silver at $22-$25 minimum. Probably higher.
I agree with you that silver wont do much until the economies pick back up. Thats just more time to buy. But in 5 years, Gas isnt going to be $1.69 a gallon anymore and silver isnt going to be $10.23 anymore.