Gold just climbed the cliff!! Ask $887 12/28/08

Goldbully

mkman123

nice jump! Silver not too shabby either. Anyone have opinions on why it did this?

ttown

<< <i>nice jump! Silver not too shabby either. Anyone have opinions on why it did this? >>



Look at the dollar, it's falling hard.

fc

<< <i>nice jump! Silver not too shabby either. Anyone have opinions on why it did this? >>

Smittys

Money out of the stock market has to go somewhere

OPA

<< <i>Money out of the stock market has to go somewhere >>



Dollar has only dropped by about .50% ....

roadrunner

Manipulation has kept gold down. So the lack of it, certainly helps to spring it upwards. Hey, gold is not supposed to spring up in a deflation...only during inflationary periods. Exactly.

Note that the general theory stated by most is that the destruction of assets is deflationary, essentially $1 for $1 cancelling money supply increases. If so, then why wasn't the creation of those assets inflationary as they were created? In fact inflation was low and controlled while those assets were created over the past 10 years. The argument that deflation cancels a monetary increase doesn't hold up.

roadrunner

CalGold

I suspect that the price of gold has been propped up for many weeks as a hedge against the decline of currencies against the dollar. Whereas the weak dollar sent gold up earlier in the year, the strong dollar has created demand of its own. The alternative is short-term Treasuries which now have a yield close to zero--basically a way of using the Government's valut to store your cash.

Today’s rally in platinum and palladium it makes no economic sense from a near term demand point of view since automobile companies are slashing production and demand for other industrial goods is slack.

And I still don't understand why silver is not $7.50, or less.


CG

fc

<< <i>Manipulation has kept gold down. So the lack of it, certainly helps to spring it upwards. Hey, gold is not supposed to spring up in a deflation...only during inflationary periods. Exactly.

Note that the general theory stated by most is that the destruction of assets is deflationary, essentially $1 for $1 cancelling money supply increases. If so, then why wasn't the creation of those assets inflationary as they were created? In fact inflation was low and controlled while those assets were created over the past 10 years. The argument that deflation cancels a monetary increase doesn't hold up.

roadrunner >>



I would argue that manipulation does not happen as much as some
around here think. Gold can spring up in deflationary times when
there is a frenzied rush to safety after the market falls 400 points
the day before. A 50 dollar jump in gold is only 5-7%. Yes a nice jump
but we will need to see if it can hold it. Too many times we have gotten
excited only to see it whittled away the next week. But in this case
I feel by the end of the day it will have paired its gain, possibly right
back to where it started... possibly.

If I sold a lot of stock the day before.. i highly doubt I would rush into
paper gold or buy contracts that have a delivery date quite a ways out. I would hold onto cash for a bit.

But a day like this sure makes for interesting conversation! Hopefully
this spike will get people excited and chew up the rest of the buy
it nows I have on ebay ;-)

rgCoinGuy

800! Now can we keep it through the close?

mhammerman

Yep, it's in the media now. Should be a spike rush that last for a few days and then it falls and the newbs get scared and dump along with the short term players. Then again, with all the international buying of big stashes, it might just put a little squeeze on the metal. I've felt for a while that 850 was a pretty rational number.

roadrunner

But in this case I feel by the end of the day it will have paired its gain, possibly right
back to where it started... possibly.

Knocking back gold from $750 is one thing. The PPT and JPM have been doing that for weeks. But knocking back from $800 with so many weeks of energy being built up in gold is much harder. I think it ran too high to get a close below $750 today. That's the first step. The next step towards another run at $850+ is a close at $780. The metals have been just looking for an excuse for weeks to take a jump. It may not hold, but it sure beats a quick drop to $675.

As long as the majority of the people don't understand why gold is not at $600 or silver at $7.50, then it has more potential to go to $1000/$20 again. I'm all for that. When the sheeple are asking why aren't the metals at $3000 / $50, then we'll have different issues.

roadrunner

HonoluluDude

Watch GLD. Volume's okay, but not real impressive. Let's see how it closes.

OPA

<< <i>When the sheeple are asking why aren't the metals at $3000 / $50, then we'll have different issues. >>



You "hit the nail square on the head" with that statement. A contrarian view that I follow and it has worked for me.

Placid

Looks like gold is crowning

mrearlygold

That cat looks like it's been getting into the catnip buds again!

coynclecter

Does anyone here think its a "coincidence" that the November options expired yesterday and the price took off today?


Gold has had huge worldwide demand and every reason to fly high. However, The gold options with over 10,000 open puts at $750 expired yesterday. The manipulators had to keep the price contained until then. Now they sold off to get out of the way.


and still no one goes to jail.

MoneyLA

Don't rule out a "one day wonder" for gold.

But even if this move up holds, it barely puts gold back in the trading range of $800 to $950. So, I can't get excited about this move.

After weeks of falling prices, some kind of rally is normal and expected.

You might use names like "dead cat bounce," but more realistically, it's like dropping a tennis ball down a flight of stairs. Every few steps down the staircase, the tennis ball will hit a stair and bounce up, only to continue its move down the staircase.

When gold is back up to $1,000 an ounce I will be open to the possibility of a new bull run.

In the meantime, you gold bulls can enjoy the trading possibilities. Yes, you might get some follow through buying from here. But before I commit or recognize a new bull run for gold, I want to get past the overhead resistance at about $1000 to $1030.

jmski52

When gold is back up to $1,000 an ounce I will be open to the possibility of a new bull run.

Let me know when the stock market makes it to 13,000 again. Then we can compare notes.

roadrunner

Don't rule out a "one day wonder" for gold.

Several of the better miners made 35% one day gains today. That would have been nice to take advantage of.

After weeks of falling prices, some kind of rally is normal and expected.

Of course, yet few of the anti-gold bugs will ever take advantage of such moves because they're waiting for the "imminent" move back to Nadler's $550-$650. This up-move has been building for weeks, and I've mentioned it numerous times. Gold has the potential to be up a $100-$200 in a day or more at this point. Frankly it could jump to over $1000 and be on it's way to $1200 before you can react. This is the time to have a strong core position imo. And the potential to move back down that amount from here is much more unlikely. I don't think it's one day or even one week. Gold (and S&P) are due for significant moves back up. In gold's case it's no dead cat bounce but a slow build to move towards $1200 eventually and then to $1500. For stocks, it will be a dead-cat bounce since the long term trend is still for the Dow-Gold ratio to approach low single digits. That's history speaking as well as long term TA (20-50 years). I'm sure many of the anti-bugs will be buying at $1000-$1200, right before the final correction back to the sub-$1000 range before a final push much, much higher.

Closing at $800 here is quite bullish, regardless how it occurred. The shortage of small gold bullion continues.

From Jim Sinclair. A list of some inflationary regimes of the past. Of course this "cannot" happen to us.

Angola 1991-1999
Argentina 1981 – 1992
Belarus 1993 – 2008
Bolivia 1984 – 1986
Bosnia – Herzegovina 1992 – 1993
Brazil 1986 -1994
Chile 1971 – 1981
China 1948 – 1955
Georgia 1993 -1995
Germany 1919 -1923
Greece 1943 – 1953 At the high point prices doubled every 28 hours. Greek inflation reached a rate of 8.5 billion percent per month.
Hungry 1944 – 1946
Israel 1971 – 1985 (price controls instituted)
Japan 1934 – 1951
Nicaragua 1987 – 1990
Peru 1987 – 1991
Poland 1990 – 1994
Romania 1998 – 2006
Turkey 1990 – 2001
Ukraine 1992 – 1995
USA 1773 – not worth a Continental
Yugoslavia 1989 – 1994
Zaire 1989 – present (now the Congo)
Zimbabwe – 2000 to present. November of 2008 – inflation rate of 516 quintillion percent

roadrunner

coynclecter

Good Idea MoneyLA, lets wait for it to go up 250 more an ounce and then buyin. Nothing like buy high and sell low to build a portfolio.

fc

<< <i>Good Idea MoneyLA, lets wait for it to go up 250 more an ounce and then buyin. Nothing like buy high and sell low to build a portfolio. >>



I think I know where MoneyLA is coming from. If gold reaches 1000
and passes 1050... it is truly a bullish sign would you not agree?

It would then seem to have the potential to reach new highs once
again. Like that often mentioned 1200 mark and from there... who
knows what would happen?

I think he is worried that if he bought in at 800 to 850 an ounce
would it languish for the next months/years between 750 and 950?
There is a profit potential but nothing really exciting that people who
bought in at 450 are enjoying right now.

So it may be better to wait it out until you see really bullish signs of
the next run which can take the price way past 1000 into new highs.
You might not get the same amount of profits as others who got in
at 750... but at least your money would have more potential for
a gain in a shorter amount of time. Especially if this money was being
used for some other short term investment that could reap rewards
right now.

I think that is what he meant. He is waiting for a really clear sign instead
of a gut feeling.

ProofRainbowRoosevelt

<< <i>When gold is back up to $1,000 an ounce I will be open to the possibility of a new bull run. >>



By that time, it will, at least, be in mid swing.

mkman123

Gold and other precious metals holding up well in the overseas market! It will be great if it holds up in the US market in the morning!

Deadhorse

<< <i>Gold and other precious metals holding up well in the overseas market! It will be great if it holds up in the US market in the morning! >>




I think you mean Monday morning.

The markets are closed for the weekend.

I told you we'd break $800 today.

fishcooker

If gold reaches 1000 and passes 1050... it is truly a bullish sign would you not agree?

It would then seem to have the potential to reach new highs once
again. Like that often mentioned 1200 mark and from there... who
knows what would happen?


It's all about managing Risk/Reward. Waiting for $1050 before figuring out that gold should have been bought is a problem inherent to that money management strategy. A different strategy that buys because it's "low", has inherent problems, too (didn't all this start as a 7 day dip?). Either way, one must exercise time, discipline, and skill, to avoid the pitfalls and actually tilt Risk/Reward favorably.

mkman123

yes I mean monday morning. Can't wait, friday was an exciting day, hopefully monday will be also!

roadrunner

think I know where MoneyLA is coming from. If gold reaches 1000
and passes 1050... it is truly a bullish sign would you not agree?

All I can agree on is that if gold runs past $1000 one would have missed the first $300 of the cycle (40+%). And no, it's not a given that it cannot fall right back from $1000-$1150 and head back to $600-$750. That would be disastrous for any newbies thinking that at $1100 they are "protected." That is unless they figure they are in for the long haul and 30% drops don't bother them (yeah right!). Poor strategy imo, especially in light of the fact of the power that the FED and Treasury wield right now to do pretty much whatever they choose. Short term, anything is possible, even after an advance to $1000. In any case, late fall has been a good time to get into gold over the past 7 years. While fall of 2007 to date shows us 0-5% lower, the previous 6 years all showed upward moves. While history is no guarantee, buying metals cheap during the fall lows has been a decent strategy. But you can always wait until late winter or early spring when metals have tended to be higher.

I'd also like to know all the alternative investments making people lots of money now....except possibly for those that love to short everything (and of which there might be one 1, 2 or 3 on this forum....which in general doesn't work for J6P or Warren Buffet).

So who is still shorting gold on continuing moves upward??

roadrunner

Goldbully

<< <i> >>




Continuing the cliff climb tonight!!!!

roadrunner

Yes, a gold spike followed by an immediate rejection. Net result - nothing yet.

Edited at 10 am EST Monday - well, after another 14 hours or so, looks a lot different.......$823.

roadrunner

fc

yea it did change fast. Earlier today I thought it was going to have a down day...
now it looks like another up day is in the making.

i hope this spike gets a frenzy going. I need to unload several rolls on fleabay :-)

Goldbully

<< <i>

<< <i> >>




Continuing the cliff climb tonight!!!! >>



Chart looks pretty stable....ready to climb into Black Friday????

I say yes!!!!

Goldbully

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i> >>




Continuing the cliff climb tonight!!!! >>



Chart looks pretty stable....ready to climb into Black Friday????

I say yes!!!! >>




Here we go once again!!!!!

roadrunner

Is this what MoneyLA meant by wanting to see higher gold prices to "prove" a bullish market? Was this #18 or #19, I lost track?

Key resistance points at around .85 on the USD and 830-835 on gold. If they both get penetrated, this would signal a continuing trend of higher highs and lows for gold. The dollar closing under .85 will be a bearish signal. Same for gold closing above $830. The HUI and XAU continue to move strongly upwards as it did in the early stages of this market in 2001-2002 (similarities?). A good call by Proofcollection over the last week or so.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

Roadrunner I stand by my earlier comments, and FC back in late November clearly restated what I said and meant...

I will let you early birds get the early profits, and take the early risk.

I want to buy when there is NO overhead resistance, and gold is clearly moving to new highs... this is when risk is least.

True, I will not get the maximum profit, but I will eliminate much of the risk.

You can trade the early swings, and knock yourself out doing it.

Rupert305

Up today down tomorrow.

roadrunner

I want to buy when there is NO overhead resistance

Good luck. I'm not aware if such a condition can exist as trend lines can always form an upper resistance channel. Even if we exceed $1030 there will be defined resistance points along the way. I wonder if those people buying into the stock market during October to November 2007 thought they were buying into a market with "no overhead resistance."

roadrunner

MoneyLA

roadrunner, there are always "new highs." when we reach a "new high" the overhead resistance is gone. "trend channels" don't count. read Weinstein.

roadrunner

Trend channels "do count." Read Sinclair.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

if you follow trend channels, then you can never let your profits run--- because there is always a top to every trend channel, and there is always a sell point that will come before a rally exhausts itself.

let your trend channels dictate your selling, but I'd rather let my profits run.

case in point: in the late 1980s I bought Jaguar (when it was still an independent auto company) for $1 a share. the trend channel said to sell at $1.50 or there abouts. instead, when Jaguar hit a $1.50 which was a new high for the stock, I let my profits run.

Jaguar was a Ford buy out at $12 a share a few months later.

roadrunner

if you follow trend channels, then you can never let your profits run--- because there is always a top to every trend channel, and there is always a sell point that will come before a rally exhausts itself.

Agreed. But the corrollary is that pigs get slaughtered waiting for the ultimate top. Taking 1/3 or some fraction off the table on each successive move up, and buying back cheaper will eventually get you a 100% position at no cost. There should be dozens of such moves coming in the gold market over the next few years. But there are also many gold investors who are riding this entire cycle out without selling. They will get out with gains of 3X to 20X their original investments. It beats losing money.

let your trend channels dictate your selling, but I'd rather let my profits run. case in point: in the late 1980s I bought Jaguar (when it was still an independent auto company) for $1 a share. the trend channel said to sell at $1.50 or there abouts. instead, when Jaguar hit a $1.50 which was a new high for the stock, I let my profits run.
Jaguar was a Ford buy out at $12 a share a few months later.

Buyouts are great if you know they're coming. You're doing very good if the share price goes up 30-100%. But they are isolated examples. Most investors are going to be invested into solid companies with no chance for takeovers (other than in BK court) or in mutual/index funds like GLD or GDX if we are talking about the gold market for example.

roadrunner

jmski52

You can trade the early swings, and knock yourself out doing it.

Or, you can note the fundamentals, keep averaging in, and avoid all those nasty tax bills and aggravations while trying to win every trade on the way up.

Goldbully

<< <i>

<< <i> >>




Continuing the cliff climb tonight!!!! >>



And tonight too!!!!!!

rgCoinGuy

Where it stops, no one knows!

lope208

$877.50 at 10:22....and rising!

Goldbully

Ask $887.00

roadrunner

$850? $870? $880? $890? But according to smart money, there are no fundamental reasons for gold to rally at this point.

Looks as if I'll continue to keep my money dumb. The longer term chart says gold should be repelled from $890 and head back towards $600-$650. For some reason my gut is telling me....no. Well, at least not until it rallys over $900-$910. This is where the PPT needs to take a strong stand Monday. They read the charts too and know what $887-$890 represents.

If gold closes above $890 this week, it will break out above the longer term downtrend channel. That would be exceptionally bullish going forward. And based on the strength of the gold stocks over the past 2 months, that's the way I would lean...continuing strength. A close above $850 this week leaves gold higher than Dec. 31, 2007. From a yearly average standpoint, gold is already higher than in 2007 where it spent the first half of the year languishing between $575-$650.

Why has gold moved up so much since last week? Uhh...fundamentals?

roadrunner

2ndCharter

The gold that I have resting comfortably in my SDB was acquired as an insurance policy (like homeowners' or life insurance) against the likelihood of strong inflation somewhere down the road. Whether it goes up or down on a daily basis is immaterial to me. I may check the price once every couple of weeks out of curiousity and then on to the sports page....

trozau

<< <i>Why has gold moved up so much since last week? Uhh...fundamentals? >>


It's probably due to the tension between India and Pakistan late last week and the more serious development over the weekend of the Israeli air raids on the Hamas installations in the Gaza strip.

mrearlygold

roadrunner

Monday 8:30 am PPT sheriff wake up call.

"Now boys, we can't have none of that kind of stuff. What we got here is a failure to communicate."

With 3 trading days left in 2008 the PPT has 3 major missions left.

-Keep gold from trading higher on Dec 31st than it did during 2007.
-Keep gold from closing above $887.
-Keep the USD index > 0.80

roadrunner