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well the premiums for silver are falling fast. 3 bucks over spot is normal right now.
fc
Posts: 12,789 ✭✭✭
well the premiums for silver are falling fast. 3 bucks over spot is normal right now.
Take for example that ampex has silver available in any shape or form.
1 oz bars - 2.99 over spot.
1000 oz bars - .69 over spot.
1 oz generic rounds - 2.49 over spot.
Ebay is full of expensive buy it nows due to the live.com discount but
many auctions are ending lower then just two weeks ago.
The slight bounce up in silver has not turned into increased buy prices
but simply narrowed the difference in the premium over spot.
The over exuberance of many buyers is waning quickly.
If everyone liked silver at 14 an ounce a two months ago they certainly do
not like it anymore as internet sites known to sell it are not selling out.
The holidays are quickly approaching and that will shift extra money
that small timers spend to buying gifts and travel. The spot price seems
stable around 9-10 bucks an ounce and this will eventually become
the norm and premiums will sink down to match it as the dumb money gets
bored holding silver that is doing nothing. Of course the days of paying
melt or a few dimes over are over... the giddy moments of 5-7 over
spot are gone.
Maybe by next year something will change to make this post silly but
for now I do not see it.
opinions?
Take for example that ampex has silver available in any shape or form.
1 oz bars - 2.99 over spot.
1000 oz bars - .69 over spot.
1 oz generic rounds - 2.49 over spot.
Ebay is full of expensive buy it nows due to the live.com discount but
many auctions are ending lower then just two weeks ago.
The slight bounce up in silver has not turned into increased buy prices
but simply narrowed the difference in the premium over spot.
The over exuberance of many buyers is waning quickly.
If everyone liked silver at 14 an ounce a two months ago they certainly do
not like it anymore as internet sites known to sell it are not selling out.
The holidays are quickly approaching and that will shift extra money
that small timers spend to buying gifts and travel. The spot price seems
stable around 9-10 bucks an ounce and this will eventually become
the norm and premiums will sink down to match it as the dumb money gets
bored holding silver that is doing nothing. Of course the days of paying
melt or a few dimes over are over... the giddy moments of 5-7 over
spot are gone.
Maybe by next year something will change to make this post silly but
for now I do not see it.
opinions?
0
Comments
What I do know is if the price does stay down, as someone else posted today, that is only a good thing for those of us who do buy long term. I can definitely see the Cash back deal helping prop up ebay prices. As for the 1 ounce bars being 3 bucks over spot, are those JM and Engelhard? If so, will you PM me where to get them?
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>I haven't been as active as you, but I know you put your money where your thoughts are, so I will not argue that you are wrong. Congrats on making a few bucks too!
What I do know is if the price does stay down, as someone else posted today, that is only a good thing for those of us who do buy long term. I can definitely see the Cash back deal helping prop up ebay prices. As for the 1 ounce bars being 3 bucks over spot, are those JM and Engelhard? If so, will you PM me where to get them?
The one ounce bars I see on apmex are name brand bars that could
be from many different places. sunshine, ampex, silvertowne, amark,
etc... who knows what you would get... i am sure it would be a mix.
but brand name none the less.
so far i have sold 700 ounces on ebay and still have 300 more ounces
to go. The final batch was bought at 11.99 an ounce so I know I can
still make good money on them. But I am finding out replacing the
silver at the same price or slightly higher is almost over. The best
I could do with a two week delivery is probably 12.50-13.50. UGH
;-)
When northwest territorial starts looking good i know the flipping stage
is almost over.
<< <i>any ASEs 3 over spot? >>
I have no idea why these fetch so much but from what I have seen
the prices are slipping. On ebay it is the shipping that kills the price.
Dealers knowing this price accordingly.
Just look at apmex and their 6 bucks over spot price. I guess people
still like them. Me? I would rather buy 5 100 oz bars and save 1500 bucks when considering a 500 ounce purchase.
<< <i>I think right now if you can get 1 oz. SAE or Austrian Philharmonics for 3 bucks over spot. Go for it. Also the same with Engelhard or JM 1 oz bars. >>
you are naming two rounds that are an exception to the rule at
the moment but give it time.
As for engelhard and JM bars.. just check ebay. I now see them for
selling as low as 150 on a regular basis.
Imagine these were selling for 190-210 just two months ago!
So if one is patient the premium is now down to 4.50-5 an ounce.
The 100 ounce bars have dropped even more. 1300 will almost buy
one.
Clicky
<< <i>The 2008 maple leafs are still very strong.
Clicky >>
Buying a single coin is always an expensive proposition.
As you buy more on ebay, say a sheet of 10, you can easily find an
auction and win at 155-160. I know because I sold a few at that level.
Granted most went at 160-170... but when i started they were easily fetching
180+. Not anymore when I last sold 200 ounces a week ago.
I was very happy to get 175ish.. and ok with getting 165... and disappointed
seeing some go for 157ish.
In other words, a steady downward trend is becoming apparent.
<< <i>The one ounce bars I see on apmex are name brand bars that could
be from many different places. sunshine, ampex, silvertowne, amark,
etc... who knows what you would get... i am sure it would be a mix.
but brand name none the less. >>
None of these you have mentioned here are considered "brand name".
There are only two brand names and they are called that because they the only two that are recognized by the COMEX.
Been that way for decades, don't expect it to change.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>I think right now if you can get 1 oz. SAE or Austrian Philharmonics for 3 bucks over spot. Go for it. Also the same with Engelhard or JM 1 oz bars. >>
you are naming two rounds that are an exception to the rule at
the moment but give it time. >>
Time won't make any difference with regards to those two.
ASEs are going for $9 over spot locally and that's for common dates, 2008s are running at $11 over.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
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<< <i>
<< <i>The one ounce bars I see on apmex are name brand bars that could
be from many different places. sunshine, ampex, silvertowne, amark,
etc... who knows what you would get... i am sure it would be a mix.
but brand name none the less. >>
None of these you have mentioned here are considered "brand name".
There are only two brand names and they are called that because they the only two that are recognized by the COMEX.
Been that way for decades, don't expect it to change. >>
I wonder how many silver buyers still think that way? I doubt the
new folks coming in and buying silver think like the old timers do.
Sunshine, Northwest, Silvertowne, and etc... are very brand name'ish
to me. If a company makes blanks for the US mint, I consider them
trust worthy enough to call brand name.
Engelhard no longer even produces bars and JM no longer makes
?smaller bars? so eventually the concept you are holding onto will
have to change.
But alas, I am not trying to convince you.. just stating my opinion.
Brand name == trust. nothing more, nothing less.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think right now if you can get 1 oz. SAE or Austrian Philharmonics for 3 bucks over spot. Go for it. Also the same with Engelhard or JM 1 oz bars. >>
you are naming two rounds that are an exception to the rule at
the moment but give it time. >>
Time won't make any difference with regards to those two.
ASEs are going for $9 over spot locally and that's for common dates, 2008s are running at $11 over. >>
I dont understand why you think your local market makes up the
whole silver market? Just a visit to a few websites shows you can
easily beat that price.
Buy Price Sell Price Volume Discounts
$14.29 $17.33 Buy 20 - 499 for $16.83 Each
Buy 500 or more for $16.33 Each
Ships in a week or two... from ampex. pretty normal shipping times
right now.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The one ounce bars I see on apmex are name brand bars that could
be from many different places. sunshine, ampex, silvertowne, amark,
etc... who knows what you would get... i am sure it would be a mix.
but brand name none the less. >>
None of these you have mentioned here are considered "brand name".
There are only two brand names and they are called that because they the only two that are recognized by the COMEX.
Been that way for decades, don't expect it to change. >>
I wonder how many silver buyers still think that way? I doubt the
new folks coming in and buying silver think like the old timers do.
Sunshine, Northwest, Silvertowne, and etc... are very brand name'ish
to me. If a company makes blanks for the US mint, I consider them
trust worthy enough to call brand name.
Engelhard no longer even produces bars and JM no longer makes
?smaller bars? so eventually the concept you are holding onto will
have to change.
But alas, I am not trying to convince you.. just stating my opinion.
Brand name == trust. nothing more, nothing less. >>
Sounds more like you are trying to convince yourself, it also sounded like you were stating this as a fact.
Market makers know the score. When the prices spike sharply, and they will, those trying to cash in will quickly learn the difference, much to their disappointment.
BTW, J&M still produces 100 ounce bars on a staggered schedule.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I dont understand why you think your local market makes up the
whole silver market? Just a visit to a few websites shows you can
easily beat that price. >>
Nowhere did I say that.
Websites are a promise.
Do you really think if silver spiked upwards by $5 an ounce that any website would honor their prices from weeks ago on delivery?
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
As for engelhard and JM bars.. just check ebay. I now see them for
selling as low as 150 on a regular basis.
Imagine these were selling for 190-210 just two months ago!
So if one is patient the premium is now down to 4.50-5 an ounce.
>>
What about (ten)1 oz. bars? Not a 10 oz. bar.
<< <i>
<< <i>I dont understand why you think your local market makes up the
whole silver market? Just a visit to a few websites shows you can
easily beat that price. >>
Nowhere did I say that.
Websites are a promise.
Do you really think if silver spiked upwards by $5 an ounce that any website would honor their prices from weeks ago on delivery? >>
With the way information spreads on the internet and this forum for
example... yes they would honor it. A place cannot stay in business
very long breaking deals like that.
heck, i would honor my ebay auctions if they closed just as spot
jumped 5 bucks.
that is part of dealing in bullion and accepted. swings either way
are part of the business. you win some and you lose some.
For example those WSM bars you bought sold for a ton over spot. Is there a reason why?
PS. Were did you get those WSM bars, I want some.
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<< <i>fc, on your past auctions can you explain why certain bars of yours sold for more?
For example those WSM bars you bought sold for a ton over spot. Is there a reason why?
PS. Were did you get those WSM bars, I want some. >>
It was the peak of frenzy. People just had to have silver right away
and were willing to pay anything for it. That phase lasted about one
month.
As for getting more of those bars they show up on ebay all the time!
Premiums have dropped for them. I imagine 15-17 an ounce is the
range they are currently selling for which is obviously much lower then
when I was selling them. They fetched 18+ without a problem.
where i got them? from a forum member. if he wishes to sell some
he will message you. I do not think i should share his name.
roadrunner
<< <i>Should the price of silver start rallying, wouldn't that be a reason for premiums to begin shrinking?
roadrunner >>
To some degree I'd think. Still, we'll need to get back up into the $20 range to see much relief, IMO.
However, I don't think we will ever get back to where we were pre-last summer. I think premiums are here to stay, to one degree or another.
Consider that production for 2008 is down 70% from 2007 and that was down from 2006. SEVENTY PERCENT!
As you know, we've been using up far more than world production now for over 15 years.
At some point, scarcity had to become a factor and investment silver has only amounted to 7% of world production anyway over all the years.
That point may indeed be upon us. The COMEX vaults are at their lowest inventory in history and currently dropping each month.
Industrial stockpiles are all at record lows. Looks to me like push is getting closer to shove.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
So much for the BS !
310 is a good price!!! I am shocked
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<< <i>At our local club auction last night, there were two dealers going on an on telling the collectors that Premiums for silver eagles were high and they could expect to pay over 400 a roll or more and they themselves have recently been paying close to that. So I threw a roll of eagles up on the auction table and started them at 310.00 and no body even bid!!
So much for the BS ! >>
How many PMs have you received regarding that roll by now?
I think you could sell all you have at that price right here on this forum, and quickly.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>At our local club auction last night, there were two dealers going on an on telling the collectors that Premiums for silver eagles were high and they could expect to pay over 400 a roll or more and they themselves have recently been paying close to that. So I threw a roll of eagles up on the auction table and started them at 310.00 and no body even bid!!
So much for the BS ! >>
Believe me, coin club auctions are not a good place to sell bullion.
What little bullion I see at my local club meetings always sells below market.
<< <i>fc, how are the ebay auctions going? Still going strong or are many items going for much lower? >>
the same. lets use maples as an example since there is enough on ebay to make a judgment
and are brand new.
when i started selling a month or so ago i easily got 180 for 10. 18 an ounce.
when i sold my next batch i got 170 easy. 17 an ounce.
when i sold another batch recently some auctions slipped down to 157. 15.70 an ounce.
when i wanted to liquidate 8 rolls of 25 i put it up as "buy it nows" at 435 shipped. they
sold in a day at 13.08 an ounce using that live.com discount.
Other people who had "buy it nows" of the same item are still sitting there at 450 and up.
The smart buyer refuses to pay 14+ and up.
that is where I left off. buying at 12-13 an ounce and selling on ebay for 17-18 an ounce
is no longer an easy gimmee. Oh sure you will make some money... but to move 300 ounces
only to make 300 bucks is not very exciting. It was more fun bringing in 3+ dollars for every
ounce sold.
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<< <i>fc gotcha. So the buying and selling is on hold right now until silver goes up or are you going to another avenue? >>
I am going to put up another 300 ounces next week and see how
that goes. If I can make two bucks an ounce I will consider going
through another 1000 ounces.
The main problem will be finding silver at a reasonable price below
what most can find here. As in 12 an ounce at the most.
I'd like to buy a couple of 100 oz Englehardt bars just to have around but no way would I pay the premiums that are being asked. That's just silly. I'll wait for them to come down and if they don't come down, well, oops, my loss .
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>3 bucks an ounce over spot is still too high for common 1 oz silver bars as far as I'm concerned.
I'd like to buy a couple of 100 oz Englehardt bars just to have around but no way would I pay the premiums that are being asked. That's just silly. I'll wait for them to come down and if they don't come down, well, oops, my loss . >>
Those of us who are patient, may be rewarded. I still feel that the premiums will eventually come down to historical levels. They are already beginning to fall.
<< <i> Those of us who are patient, may be rewarded. I still feel that the premiums will eventually come down to historical levels. They are already beginning to fall. >>
I agree. I think the shortage outcry was mostly hype. That said, I've unloaded some rolls of silver eagles over the last week while the gettin' is still good.
<< <i>3 bucks an ounce over spot is still too high for common 1 oz silver bars as far as I'm concerned.
I'd like to buy a couple of 100 oz Englehardt bars just to have around but no way would I pay the premiums that are being asked. That's just silly. I'll wait for them to come down and if they don't come down, well, oops, my loss . >>
The premium on 100 ouce Engelhards is not $3 an ounce, However there is a premium as they are Engelhards, I've sold a few recently.
You can either pay a small premium now, or pay a higher price in the future. That seems to be the way it is and that's the way buyers/investors are looking at it.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I agree. I think the shortage outcry was mostly hype. >>
I really think you are in for a big surprise. Give it a few months yet.
Industrial supplies are at historic low levels. The US Mint can't get blanks, mining production for 2008 is 70% below 2007 levels.
The MSN cashback deal is artificial and is not a reflection of true costs.
The COMEX is way, way short of December futures contracts. I suspect many will want the physical metal at those levels given it's value in the real world and it doesn't exist. There isn't anywhere near enough physical to cover all the paper. It's a formula to drive prices like a skyrocket.
It's unwinding rapidly, in time it will filter down to the regular folks as an accepted fact.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
The consensus on the net is that increasing lease rates show tightness in the physical market.
Do you think the currently rising lease rates are telegraphing an imminent increase in prices?
Do you use this metric an indicator of when to buy?