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Whats your guess on silver for the month of Nov?

mkman123mkman123 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Guys, will silver go up or will it stay down near 9ish for November?

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Comments

  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    One indicator to watch is the premium over spot the average Ebay buyer is willing to pay. As long as the premium stays high, odds favor lower prices. Why? My point of view is that this is sentiment indicator. Under the definition of "dumb" investment money there is a picture of the average small time Ebay buyer.

    When and if the premium drops to a more normal level, that will be a much safer time to buy. Those paying 50% premiums for items that normal trade for 10% premiums are unlikely to make any money. Much more likely is that these know-nothings panic at the eventual bottom when they tire of their losses and sell below spot, and say "get me out at any price." If that kind of panic selling occurs, load the boat. There will be little downside risk and huge upside at that point.

    Markets all over are driven by the same human emotions: greed and fear. Using the Ebay weather vane, it looks to me like irrational greed and not much fear in silver right now on the Bay. On the way up, when silver crossed $13, quite a few sellers were willing to part with their silver for below spot. I saw that as a positive, that even though silver was then at a recovery high of $13, it still had a lot more upside, and it did unfold that way. Now the opposite is happening during this silver crash. The premium is only one indicator, and as with any indicator it will be wrong at times. However, when it is at extremes like it is now, it seems foolish to me to ignore it. Other people have other interpretations, and I will not argue with them.

    /edit to add: silver at $9.86, gold $723, a lot of silver on Ebay still trading at $13 to $17, though the rebate distorts some of that.

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  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    redtiger

    are B & M's getting the same premium as eBay sellers (within range)

    i like getting all sides (opinions) to something lke this.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Irrational Exuberance" = will level off and the spreads will moderate... my guess.. price of silver around the $10+ - range.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    trying to guess the price of silver for the short term in this volatile market is anybody's guess.

    But I do see silver staying at this price and maybe lower for some time.

    But when it moves up, I think it will move up quickly and catch a lot of people off guard.
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • mkman123mkman123 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭
    thanks for the responses guys!
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  • GreeniejrGreeniejr Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭


    << <i>redtiger

    are B & M's getting the same premium as eBay sellers (within range)

    i like getting all sides (opinions) to something lke this. >>



    We are getting +4 and +5 for non-Silver Eagle Silver whether it is 100 Oz bars or smaller. To be honest we can't keep material in stock. We buy in a 10 Oz bar or groups of 1 Oz bars and they rarely last 24 hrs. The scary part is though old time buyers briefly scoff then still pay it, those people are outnumbered by new buyers who enthusiastically pay the strong premium.
    David
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭
    9-10 bucks an ounce. it was oversold at 8.50.
  • jamakinjamakin Posts: 1,055
    spot will dip to 7.99 while the premium for real silver will keep physical silver in the double digets
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭
    Whoever finally wins the election will have a lot to do with it.

    I have my doubts it will be over Tuesday night. I wouildn't be surprised if there are several legal challenges and this thing could drag on.

    Uncetaintly will always drive prices upward to some degree.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • CladiatorCladiator Posts: 18,038 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My prediction is that I'll keep buying it. It it goes down I'll buy. If it goes up I'll buy. If it stays the same I'll buy. I like silver bullion and I don't plan on ever using it for anything. I like the idea of my kids being handed a gigantic pile of silver bullion by my attorney after I'm gone. image
  • carscars Posts: 1,904
    Can I get next weeks lotto numbers while you guys are at it image

    I don't understand these threads of what this or that will be next week/month/year. Who knows.
    Its all relative
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,795 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My prediction is that I'll keep buying it. It it goes down I'll buy. If it goes up I'll buy. If it stays the same I'll buy.

    I'm in Cladiator's "buy, buy, buy" camp. Right now, the recent year Silver Proof Rolls of Dimes, Quarters and Halves intrigue me. They are pretty and the premiums aren't outrageous if you are patient. I think that the rolls of these coins are collectible now, and will be more so in the future.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • DeadhorseDeadhorse Posts: 3,720 ✭


    << <i>My prediction is that I'll keep buying it. It it goes down I'll buy. If it goes up I'll buy. If it stays the same I'll buy.

    I'm in Cladiator's "buy, buy, buy" camp. Right now, the recent year Silver Proof Rolls of Dimes, Quarters and Halves intrigue me. They are pretty and the premiums aren't outrageous if you are patient. I think that the rolls of these coins are collectible now, and will be more so in the future. >>




    Really? I've seen rolls of early 60s proof silver coins on the Bay going for very little over spot.

    I even thought about grabbing a roll of Kennedy halves that closed at very near melt.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • HonoluluDudeHonoluluDude Posts: 2,167 ✭
    If you mean the low for November-- $7.50... I hope I'm dead wrong though.
  • garsmithgarsmith Posts: 5,894 ✭✭
    << Whats your guess on silver for the month of Nov? >>

    I think it depends on what the out come of Tuesdays election is.
  • bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭
    I think red tiger makes an interesting point about premiums being a contrary indicator, but prices of silver and most metals have dropped so severely, that I think we will get a relief rally that sees silver move up 10 to 20% in Nov so I say it will get to @11.00 and I don't think the election will make any difference, as it is my opinion is that it is already baked into the cake. No matter who everyone wants to win on this board, it seems abudantly clear that B.O will win and I really don't think it will be close enough for anyone to make some big legal challenge. Do you guys see it differently?

  • Danny9995Danny9995 Posts: 115


    << <i>My prediction is that I'll keep buying it. It it goes down I'll buy. If it goes up I'll buy. If it stays the same I'll buy. I like silver bullion and I don't plan on ever using it for anything. I like the idea of my kids being handed a gigantic pile of silver bullion by my attorney after I'm gone. image >>




    Exactly. It shouldnt matter what it does in the short term. I hope it stays low, because right now I am buying not selling. The real question is, where will it be in 10 to 15 years.
  • Danny9995Danny9995 Posts: 115


    << <i>

    << <i>My prediction is that I'll keep buying it. It it goes down I'll buy. If it goes up I'll buy. If it stays the same I'll buy.

    I'm in Cladiator's "buy, buy, buy" camp. Right now, the recent year Silver Proof Rolls of Dimes, Quarters and Halves intrigue me. They are pretty and the premiums aren't outrageous if you are patient. I think that the rolls of these coins are collectible now, and will be more so in the future. >>




    Really? I've seen rolls of early 60s proof silver coins on the Bay going for very little over spot.

    I even thought about grabbing a roll of Kennedy halves that closed at very near melt. >>



    So with silver at $9.75, I am calculating spot on 90% coins at about 7x face. I have not seen any go anywhere near 7 times face, what I am seeing is a minimum of 10X face and usually 11 to 12.
  • mkman123mkman123 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭
    silver and all pms today up! rally rally rally!!!!

    10.13 for silver right now! Come on you have $5 more to go! image
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  • Coll3ctorColl3ctor Posts: 3,333 ✭✭✭
    "have $5 more to go!"



    Why stop there ?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 1,039 ✭✭


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