put your emotions aside....

MoneyLA

there is a lot of emotion here on this message board. some of you are permabulls for the PMs. Others said they had a gut feeling to sell when gold was at $1k and plat was at $2k.

but lets put emotions aside and look at the raw data.

the stock market as measured by the Dow fell 733 points today, and the 900 point run up that heralded the start of the rebound has now been wiped out.

gold rose, whille silver and platinum fell today.

when the Dow rallied, it was just the opposite.... gold fell and silver and plat rose on the prospects for economic recovery.

now the worry is about inflation and recession and not recovery.

put your emotions aside, please, and give me your interpretation of today's numbers and what the trend is now?

wayneme

I know you don't want to hear this
but i really believe the bill is over due and we can't print our way out of this mess
just to much coming or will come due and it's starting to sink in
i have a bud at work who says big investments are looking for hard assets tire of paper
can't blame them bobcat sold to korea their out for hard assets
budweisser sold overseas the list goes on
you do the math

storm888

"...when the Dow rallied,.... gold fell and silver and plat rose on the prospects for economic recovery.

now the worry is about inflation and recession and not recovery.

put your emotions aside, please, and give me your interpretation of today's numbers and what the trend is now? ..."

/////////////////////////////////////////////

I just left a pretty sophisticated trading room.

NOBODY there.............

1. Thinks the previous DOW rally was based on "prospects for economic recovery."

2. Is the least bit worried about near-term inflation.

EVERYBODY there.............

1. Thinks stocks will go lower, higher, and remain volatile.

2. Thinks some folks will park money in gold.

////////////

My fortune teller says............

1. Stock lows will be retested. Whether or not new lows are found,
the trend will be up to sideways in a medium-term secular bear.

2. There are great trades to be made.

3. There are few buy-and-hold strategies that will work.

4. There will be a post-election pop in stocks.

5. There will be a small Santa rally in stocks.

6. 2009 will create new fortunes for traders in all investment vehicles.

7. Gold will trend down.

8. Silver will trend down more and harder than gold.

9. Someday, maybe sooner than later, it will be time to buy gold; not too soon, though.

.................................

Unforeseen disasters - natural and manmade - nullify my fortune teller's picks.

renman95

OK.

My take is slight of hand. While the sheeple focus on the insanity called Paulson & Co., I continue to accumulate PM. I don't care of the day to day numbers other than having fun with them on some threads. One needs to step back and have some "plays" in hand like in sports. When "this" happens I will do "that." I like many here almost feel vindicated as perversly as that sounds.

The market trend is down until proven otherwise. This is history. This is a paradigm shift.
Finally, this will be a different country. That is the big picture.

Ren

fishcooker

I predict a sideways or down trend in stocks until the ramifications (domestic and overseas) and civil unrest associated with the Nov 4th elections are resolved. I think the market hates not knowing how the sheeple will respond.

secondrepublic

As far as I can tell, we are seeing and will see some serious deflation in the coming months and year. The deflation is simply being caused by the collapse of the credit bubble and the destruction of large amounts of wealth and capital. That does not bode well for stocks or, for that matter, for PMs. But I think to the extent silver and platinum are industrial commodities, dependant on the "real" economy, they will suffer more in price than gold, which is not much of an industrial commodity.

The great offsetting force is the central banks, including the Fed, which are massively debasing our currency. Add to that the huge borrowing and spending of the nation's government. In today's Wall Street Journal, an article suggested that the deficit for the current fiscal year, which started Oct. 1, may be $1 trillion. That's more than twice the largest deficit ever recorded.

"Inflation" is a loaded word... there is no agreement on what it really means. Does it mean the rise in prices - think consumer prices - or is it simply a phenomenon of the money supply? I'd like to set aside "inflation" for the time being and think of the US dollar more like a share of stock. The government is issuing more and more new shares, which intrinsically dilutes the value of existing shares. (To some extent, this is being offset by the destruction of wealth and capital discussed in the first paragraph above.) I think we are seeing more inflating than deflating currently. $700 billion here, $2.3 trillion there... these numbers seem to far outweigh the bank losses that created this crisis. Logic suggests that the value of each share (dollar) will continue to fall. I don't know how much it will fall relative to other currencies, since the Europeans are also printing like made. However, I think this is ultimately bullish for PMs.

Putting my money where my mouth is, I've bought some gold in the past month. If gold drops some more, I will try to buy more.

bennybravo

Not a gold bug, but it seems to me with massive inflation coming, it's a great way to hold onto your wealth. Gold has to cost more later, because the dollar will be worth so much less. What's a better option really? 35% down in the 401K and holding, with everthing shifted to the safest options available to me. I moved everything into the safer options right before last week happened. I'm not abandoning the idea of my retirement plan. Gold and silver just seem like a REALLY good backup plan.

wayneme

one more thing i do think the market is moving because fund's have money
but they don't know any other game it's like a poker game with two people
a winner and a loser just passing money back and forth

cinman14

<< <i>Not a gold bug, but it seems to me with massive inflation coming, it's a great way to hold onto your wealth >>



Inflation doesn't happen during a slowdown in the economy....Or should I say recession..

It has happened before. But not to the degree that it could be called massive..

And PM's fall during a recession because people are cashing out to pay for every day expenses...

And demand for industrial metals decline... The light at the end of the tunnel has always been. Economic
growth out last economic downturns...

dac076

<< <i>
Inflation doesn't happen during a slowdown in the economy....Or should I say recession..

It has happened before. But not to the degree that it could be called massive..

And PM's fall during a recession because people are cashing out to pay for every day expenses...

And demand for industrial metals decline... The light at the end of the tunnel has always been. Economic
growth out last economic downturns... >>



I agree with all of that, and I think that will be the trend for the next year at least. Hopefully the downturn is not more protracted than that, but who knows. As the economy improves the possibility of some inflation returns, but probably modest. The standing policy has been to prevent runaway inflation.

bennybravo

Inflation results from an increase in the amount of circulating currency beyond the needs of trade; an oversupply of currency is created, and, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, the value of money decreases. Are we not pumping so much debt into the system right now that massive inflation is inevitable?

storm888

"........civil unrest ..........."

////////////////////////////////

PMs would do fairly well, I suspect.

Since on or about October 1, almost 4000 troops of the 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, have been
openly deployed in the USA. Their mission is "crowd control in the event of a national emergency."
They are armed and they have tanks.

cinman14

<< <i>Inflation results from an increase in the amount of circulating currency beyond the needs of trade; an oversupply of currency is created, and, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, the value of money decreases. >>



You must not have heard about the Libor rate and the fact that banks in major markets aren't lending money..

Home equity loans.... Buying a new car... Selling a home for profit....

Getting a raise at work ..... Getting laid off at work....

My in-laws bought a new car last week... mid 50's in age.. Lower 800 Fico score... The best they could get
was a 5.9% rate from their credit union...

I have a renter who was approved for his loan to buy our rental 2 months ago.. All he needed was to get
his 10% down payment together... When I went to collect the rent last week he said the lender told him due
to the increase in conditions he no longer was approved.

He showed me his paper work from the mortgage company... 705 fico with 6 years solid employment...
And buying the house 6 thousand below market average.. ( no real estate agent fees involved)

And this is in OKlahoma.. One of the states that has escaped the mortagage crisis for the most part..
At least in home values anyway...

Are you getting my point now..... Main street doesn't have more cash flowing than products to buy...
The feds may be printing 24/7 but it is to buy 700 billion in debt...

Nothing they have done yet has opened the bank lending.... I wouldn't even want to guess how long before
they start making Home equity lines of credit avail....

CalGold

People are reading and watching the financial reports and are seeing negative indicators. People are worried about their businesses and jobs, while the value of their investments is falling like a rock. If you think that your income is going to be lower in the coming months than in the past, that your investments will continue to be worth less than they were a few months ago, and that conceivably you will have to tap into savings to make ends meet, you are likely to do everything you can to conserve cash. That means cutting back on discretionary spending. Apply the same thinking to businesses that are seeing the same economic indicators and are, in many cases, experiencing declining revenues. The result will be a continued economic contraction. Also consider that interest rates, though lower than one year ago, have been on the rise for the past week despite the Fed’s rate cuts.

In the meantime, the $700 billion bailout of financial institutions will not increase the money supply if the money just sits in the banks. And businesses are not going to be inclined to borrow if they see a business contraction near term. By the same token the banks are not going to be willing to lend liberally if they forsee eroding balance sheets and income statements of their borrowers. In the meantime oil prices have dropped percipitously. Not exactly the stuff that fuels inflation.

Platinum and paladium have taken a beating. And if you think stocks have been pummled, just be happy you didn't buy rhodium at $10,000/ounce.

How have precious metals prices performed in similar economic conditions in the past?

CG

storm888

"...The feds may be printing 24/7 but it is to buy 700 billion in debt..."

////////////////////////////

That is at the heart of Bernanke's statement today that "inflation forces
should remain non-threatening" for several years.

..............

However, I must admit, I am not having ANY trouble getting money. It is
a good bit more expensive than it was, but nobody is cutting me off.
(This is all non-consumer debt.)

Artist

<< <i>That is at the heart of Bernanke's statement today that "inflation forces should remain non-threatening" for several years. >>



Well, he has been right about everything so far...

Overdate

Gold 841
Silver 10.07
Gold/Silver ratio 83 to 1

If ratio goes to 100, I would rather buy silver than gold.

cinman14

<< <i>"...The feds may be printing 24/7 but it is to buy 700 billion in debt..."

////////////////////////////

That is at the heart of Bernanke's statement today that "inflation forces
should remain non-threatening" for several years.

..............

However, I must admit, I am not having ANY trouble getting money. It is
a good bit more expensive than it was, but nobody is cutting me off.
(This is all non-consumer debt.) >>





I think the real problem is the inter-banking lending.... The banks don't want to lend to each other.

And when they do the Libor rate is way up....

I am with the short term crowd... I think by Feb of 09 things will start to improve. The credit card companies aren't
going to be throwing around credit line increases like they usually do around the holidays... Families have tapped
their equity lines of credit... Not to mention their credit cards to pay for daily needs...

I believe we will have a down holiday shopping season... Which in my opinion isn't really a bad thing...
retailers will slash prices to attract buyers... Consumers like myself will swoop in and buy things I have
held off buying because of the higher prices...

People who live on credit will have a very humbling holiday experience this year... Gas prices will continue
to fall. Which by around Feb or March should start making it's way into the retail prices..

By summer the credit markets will have opened up for the common borrower.. Hopefully the average person
will use these 6 months or so trying to pay down their credit card debt... In return they will be blessed with a
higher FICO score... And that should open them up to easier loans at a lower rate....

And then the cycle will start again... House prices will start a slow upward trend. People will start to see equity
build again. Banks will start to forget what got them into this mess in the first place.. They will start loaning against
home equity again...

Wall St greed will use the economic uptick to start the rise of oil again... Within a year of the economy turning around
they will use every excuse the media will report on to get oil into the 100 to 150 dollar range... Companies will start hiring again

PMs will stay in the 900 range for gold.... 13 to 15 for silver.... Never played the Platinum game so I am clueless on it..

Hopefully the Feds will let me melt all these dang pre-82 pennies so I can get rid of them....

In the mean time I will continue to hoard all the silver I can find... And wait until the spot hits 20 again and dump it..


Just my thoughts.... What say you????

halfhunter

But I think to the extent silver and platinum are industrial commodities, dependant on the "real" economy, they will suffer more in price than gold, which is not much of an industrial commodity.

OK I'm confused!

It's a given that Ag is mostly an industrial metal. But the bulk of Au is used in jewelry mfg. With the state of the economy who will be buying the rings, blings, and other golden things?

Regards, John

cinman14

<< <i>But I think to the extent silver and platinum are industrial commodities, dependant on the "real" economy, they will suffer more in price than gold, which is not much of an industrial commodity.

OK I'm confused!

It's a given that Ag is mostly an industrial metal. But the bulk of Au is used in jewelry mfg. With the state of the economy who will be buying the rings, blings, and other golden things?

Regards, John >>



What is Au and Ag??? Gold has universal monetary value.... Silver and Platinum do not...

Gold has always been a standard of wealth.....

wayneme

John
your looking at au as a american thing you need to open your eyes
world wide and think who like's gold where did we send the jobs
we aren't what we used to be
i read china will expand it self and india won't be long to follow
more people in india have a degree then we have people scrace HUH!

MoneyLA

This has been an excellent discussion. thank you.

I didnt want to post my own opinion until others went first.

There are two major concerns here -- inflation and recession.

Frankly, I agree with those of you who think that inflation is years away and recession is the more immediate problem.

I doubt PMs will increase in a recession.

I think the "fear factor" might have some limited increase in gold prices, but without inflation and a strong economy worldwide, gold will not surge.

thanks again.

wayneme

Thanks for chance to vent or view i enjoyed it
Alan

renman95

I see this deep recession as a time buy cheaper metals. We all agree on inflation of some large magnitude thereafter. Dollar cost average your way through the recession and therefore be prepared for the next phase.

MoneyLA

"Dollar cost average your way through the recession and therefore be prepared for the next phase."

Spoken like a true "permabull." Were you also buying gold and dollar cost averaging after the run up to $875 in 1980? How long did you wait to break even? Put your emotions aside... that was the point of this thread.

ProofCollection

<< <i>

<< <i>Not a gold bug, but it seems to me with massive inflation coming, it's a great way to hold onto your wealth >>



Inflation doesn't happen during a slowdown in the economy....Or should I say recession..

It has happened before. But not to the degree that it could be called massive.. >>



Inflation can indeed be massive in a slowdown. First of all, the USD is based on nothing but FAITH in the US government. As faith erodes (and I expect it to continue to do so), the perceived value of the dollar erodes. Why? Because the government has now shown and continues to show absolutely no restraint in printing more USD at will, along with demonstrated inability to stabilize things. You don't think other countries aren't noticing this? How long do you think it will take them to start wanting more USD for everything we buy from them? How much of our stuff comes from other countries? Almost all of it - the US doesn't make anything anymore except paper. How many USD are held overseas that could be dumped into the market at a moment's notice? Trillions. We're facing an ever-increasing supply of USD in the world and an ever-decreasing desire for foreigners (and US citizens) to want to have and hold USD.

The only wildcards here are a) How long will foreign USD holders keep holding their declining USD and b) How bad will the rest of the world get relative to the US?

I heard on the radio today a discussion about the stock market circa 1982... it seems that for most of the history of the stock market, the P/E ratio of stocks as been about 6. Even after the recent crash(es), the Dow would have to go to ~4000 to get us back to this historical average P/E ratio. The S&P would have to go to about 400.

And while silver may not be historically known as "money" like gold is, it still has monetary purposes. The reason why gold is valuable is because of its utility, rarity, durability, and portability, among other things. Platinum and Silver share these traits as well. During a time of inflation or currency collapse, any commodity can be a good store of wealth and a good meium of exchange. It just so happens that gold and PM's are much better and easier to handle than other commodities like lumber, bushels of corn, pork bellies, barrels of oil, etc. because PMs don't have to be measured, graded, maintained, don't rot or decay, and are portable. Because of this, PM's will maintain their value well. Think of it this way... If I paid you to do a job in gold or silver, you'd probably do it for enough of either metal because you know you could exchange your gold or silver for something else fairly easily. If I offered to pay you in pork bellies, you'd probably refuse - even if you were starving - because chances are you don't want to have to handle or deal with a couple of pork bellies or bushels of corn and it would be more difficult for you to trade your pork bellies for something else you might want.



<< <i>And PM's fall during a recession because people are cashing out to pay for every day expenses...

And demand for industrial metals decline... The light at the end of the tunnel has always been. Economic
growth out last economic downturns... >>



I question how much PMs are owned by individuals who are likely to be forced to liquidate to meet expenses vs. owned/held by corporations, banks, trusts, investment groups who will not be forced to liquidate (but may choose do to so whenever they like). Central banks have been selling their holdings for the past several years but that is slowing and even stopping. What happens when they decide to start buying? That activity alone could easily counter forced sales by individuals.

storm888

"Dollar cost average your way through the recession and therefore be prepared for the next phase."

//////////////////////////////////////////

IF the end-game is just to build a small/medium stash that you want
to keep "forever," that will work out.

IF you want to maximize profits, you have to let the prices come back
to you BEFORE you start adding to the basic stash. Otherwise, unless
you are very rich, you will run out of cash long before the most attractive
prices arrive.

After 1980, when the Kissinger/Lodge/Kennedy clans and their disciples
dumped, vitrually none of them ever touched the stuff again much above
$300. They did the rinse/repeat in 2008, and they will now wait patiently.

storm888

"...I heard on the radio today a discussion about the stock market circa 1982... it seems that
for most of the history of the stock market, the P/E ratio of stocks as been about 6..."

////////////////////////////////////


Nope.

Not 6.

Between 1960 and 2007 the average number was about 16.8.

The number you heard on the radio was likely 16.

...........

That does not mean that a P/E of 8 is good, or that one of 40
is bad.

ProofCollection

You're right. What they were talking about was the average P/E ratio during the late 70's early 80's and post 1929 stock market crash. They were implying that we are headed that direction again.

MoneyLA

actaully there was a brief period when we had BOTH inflation and recession, and this was called "slumpflation."

however, it is very rare and happened only once and for a very short period of time. So, I would not bank on it, or bet on it, happening again.

Overdate

actaully there was a brief period when we had BOTH inflation and recession, and this was called "slumpflation."

however, it is very rare and happened only once and for a very short period of time. So, I would not bank on it, or bet on it, happening again.

The government is creating money at probably the highest rate in U.S. history.

The economy is slowing down at a rapid pace.

Why would it not happen again?

PerryHall

<< <i>actaully there was a brief period when we had BOTH inflation and recession, and this was called "slumpflation." >>



I remember it being called "stagflation" for a stagnant economy with inflation.

ttown

Well I remember 1980 too and this isn't a 1980 IMO, this is not a US problem either. This is the 21st century and we're fighting to avoid a total global depression. Keep in mind the same internet and computers that exist today for up to the minute information didn't exist in 1980 and the media was more under control. If you wanted to know the price of PM's back in the day you called a hotline. Why could the Hunt brother connor the market back then but Warren Buffett having much more silver than they had couldn't? IMO paper is trying to hide the truth and Buffet made a deal with the goverement to sell his silver right at the time of the silver ETF's for future favors at just over $5 an ounce, he's smarted than that he's the one that was warning everyone all along. Don't believe for one minute the the ultra rich don't work with the goverment to stablize the markets, after all who bailed out the goverment in the last great depression.

Sorry I just don't believe everything I hear from our goverment anymore, their track record is less than stealer to say the least.

roadrunner

article on why gold will eventually win out

As stocks collapse towards lower Fib levels and look for a place to bottom (1000? 3000? 4000? 5000?) people will get tired of losing money. Meanwhile, the omnipotent FED will be printing money like crazy....dollars and treasuries will not do well. End result will be a new found appreciation for precious metals. It could take months or years, but it will happen. While financial assets deleverage, it is quite possible to have hard assets rise in price. We saw that in the 1970's. Inflation has typically been defined to address the growth in the money supply beyond normal productivity gains. The end result in excessive monetary growth (ie inflation) is always higher prices of goods and services. It's just a matter of time for the higher prices to appear.

I'm sticking with physical metals as always. I prefer slabbed bullionesque $20 "old" gold coins. But at some point down the road will probably move much of this into purer bullion. Remember that during the 1930's cash was king due to the gold backing (ie cash=gold). That's not the case today where the dollar is backed by dozens or hundreds of TRILLIONs of dollars of debt....big difference.
So where will people start looking to when TSHTF a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ..., nth time from here?...and it will.

Dollar cost average your way through the recession and therefore be prepared for the next phase." Spoken like a true "permabull." Were you also buying gold and dollar cost averaging after the run up to $875 in 1980? How long did you wait to break even? Put your emotions aside... that was the point of this thread.

Never more than a few weeks elapse without the utterance of the perma-bull theory and of those poor souls still holding their $875 gold from the 1980's....or the 1849 gold rush
I would be floored if there was a single forum member who held any significant gold from the 1980 peak beyond 1984-1990, let alone who bought at the parabolic peak. But this "emotional argument" lives on in financial CFP and stock broker folklore. And why not? Anything to disparage the only safe money with no strings/debt attached to it, even during the worst financial situation in 70 years, precisely the type of environment gold tends to negate. Yeah, when investors could really only own gold via mining shares in the 1930's they advanced 6X. Yeah, gold sure stunk up the place. But let's next discuss the perma stock bulls for equal play considering 75% of Americans fall into that category, or at least they did before October.

roadrunner

ProofCollection

I think we're in for a nice little run here soon... not only are the charts predicting it, the USD index is peaking out (ready to turn down again), and futures contracts I think are going to spur a lot of actual physical deliveries and short covering.

MoneyLA

the charts are predicting it??? what charts are you looking at???

roadrunner

actually there was a brief period when we had BOTH inflation and recession, and this was called "slumpflation."

however, it is very rare and happened only once and for a very short period of time. So, I would not bank on it, or bet on it, happening again.

That same brief period of about 6 years was also our first pure fiat experiment while allowing metals to freely float. Well, that didn't go so well so Volcker jacked interest rates to 20% to kill commodities. One could say that prior to 2000, we had a brief period of only 6 years with a metal's bull. We have only 7 years so far in to this one because 20 years of liberal monetary policies could not have allowed both to exist at the same time. It could be said that these metal boom periods while on fiat are very rare and only one has been played out in our 220+ year history. To say we "know" what's going to happen in this 2nd bout is really a stretch, esp considering how much debt is still to be unraveled.

We could only be so lucky to have mere stagflation as we saw in the 1970's. We're going to have think back a few decades before that.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

yes, you more likely heard the term "stagflation." but there was a brief period of time when the phrase "slumpflation" was used to describe economic conditions.

I remember that period and used the slumpflation term when reporting for CBS network news.

if you google the term "stagfation and slumpflation" you will find several pages of articles and references.

the first use of "slumpflation" came in the severe 1974 recession. but it found its way again into the media during the Carter years.

from a web article:

"The trouble with this analysis was that 1974 was also the year of the first general recession for world capitalism since the Second World War. We had inflation alongside of mass unemployment – impossible according to Keynesian theory. The situation was called ‘stagflation’ or ‘slumpflation’. "

mhammerman

"safe money with no strings/debt attached"

You know, GS, you may have hit on one of the more enviable points about PM ownership. It is one of the few physical assets that we can have without some kind of account number or certificate number attached.

Still, pm ownership is risky business. If push comes to shove, registration of personal holdings may come into being possibly even outright confiscation. It seems reasonable to accept that private ownership of pm is contrary to everyone being on the frn and having the frns accounted for in some fashion. Private ownership of a non frn asset could be an issue in an environment where the gov. will want every dime they can get from anyone that has some and if they don't know what you've got then how are they going to get what they want? Just an acknowledgement of one of the risks of private pm ownership.

The other risk that pm holders must bear is that the price could well collapse to 500 or so. It is certainly possible though we don't like to think of it as likely or we wouldn't be holding. There are some reasons for the price of gold to plummet or halve itself but none that seem grounded in reality; it just doesn't look like it could go to sub 700 but it could...and we have to acknowledge that possibility. On the other side of the argument there are some pretty plausible reasons for gold going much higher and at least crossing 1200 such as inflation relative to when it was fixed price, or the security value it represents in an uncertain economy, or the relative value in actual frns v.s. the purchasing power per oz of gold. There are many fairly reasonable arguments for why gold could go much higher. But there is considerable resistance at 1000...a lot of resistance right now; that could change. If it ever does cross again it will take out 1200 in a blink methinks. Still, it exists with no strings attached.

So, how to resolve the risk of pm ownership? My answer is coins though I do confess to buying an early eagle for the metal more than the date. I confess to buying a tube of three of SAEs or used to get a 10 ozer every now and then but rare coins seem to be a reasonable response to the risks of pm holding. If the value of the coin is more than 2x melt then they are numismatic rare coins and as numismatic items, they have a distinction that is measurable and recognized and they may well get outside of any attempts by our representatives to grab our metal. Seems like you could put it in a bezel with a gold chain and have jewelry, surely that would pass. Of course the 63 saint and 61 eagle common dates probably wouldn't pass muster as rare coins but at least you've got some arguable points here. Also, the modern gold commemoratives and eagles and buffalos are marketed by the govt. as collector items so they could be argued for as well. Now, if they come after the 2x stuff...we will need to talk attorney. But with raw pm, you can make no argument, it's just metal and that may well be just what they may want.

Arrrrrrrrrrooooooooooogggggggaaaa Arrrrrrrrrrooooooooooogggggggaaaa...accumulate, accumulate!

Cash is king, gold is good.

Edited to add: I think I crossed threads here...sorry.

roadrunner

So, how to resolve the risk of pm ownership? My answer is coins though I do confess to buying an early eagle for the metal more than the date. I confess to buying a tube of three of SAEs or used to get a 10 ozer every now and then but rare coins seem to be a reasonable response to the risks of pm holding. If the value of the coin is more than 2x melt then they are numismatic rare coins and as numismatic items, they have a distinction that is measurable and recognized and they may well get outside of any attempts by our representatives to grab our metal.

I began to wonder if the current rise in prices of slabbed old $20's MS61-65 might be related to trying to get to the 2X bullion point referenced in Patriot Act 2 as the definition of bullionesque items. For most of 2008, MS65 Saints have been swallowed up by that 2X premium. Prior to 2008 they had rarely been less than 2X bullion price. Only in the last few weeks have they broken out again to be at 2.3X bullion. In similar fashion MS63 and MS64 $20 Libs are above that 2X threshold as well. If bullion gold confiscation does ever come, is it preferable to own gold in 2X - 4X format considering that will be the only bullionesque items in circulation? Upon confiscation wouldn't gold world-wide rise considerably in value and still allow one to hold their own despite the obvious loss on your initial acquistion price?

roadrunner

Bear

In the World to come after the New President is in power
regardless of who it may be. We will see the following:

1. While the cash must flow to counter the chance of a depression,
financial sacred cows will, thru necessity, be gored.

2. Economic sacrifices must be made by all of the Worlds Citizens.

3.A strong measure of fiscal reality must permeate the Government
as well as the Nation.

4. While this Nation is still the first among Nations, we are no longer
able to unilaterally determine the future of the Nations of the World.

5.To some degree, Governments must and do, redistribute the Nations
wealth in order to maintain that Nations security, economic health and
infrastructure like roads, dams and bridges, as well as secure the health
and welfare of its citizens.

6. This Nation will never be able to pay off its debt other then renege on its
obligations. The best we can do is manage that debt so that it stays within
an acceptable ratio to the Nations Gross Demestic Product. (GDP)

7.Our Nations military must be expanded to increase the size and type of
military units available for deployment ,as well as a large flexible strategic
reserve. We live in an increasingly dangerous community and there can be
no shortchanging or savings on the need for a large, well trained and
fully equipped military force.

ProofCollection

<< <i>I began to wonder if the current rise in prices of slabbed old $20's MS61-65 might be related to trying to get to the 2X bullion point referenced in Patriot Act 2 as the definition of bullionesque items. For most of 2008, MS65 Saints have been swallowed up by that 2X premium. Prior to 2008 they had rarely been less than 2X bullion price. Only in the last few weeks have they broken out again to be at 2.3X bullion. In similar fashion MS63 and MS64 $20 Libs are above that 2X threshold as well. If bullion gold confiscation does ever come, is it preferable to own gold in 2X - 4X format considering that will be the only bullionesque items in circulation? Upon confiscation wouldn't gold world-wide rise considerably in value and still allow one to hold their own despite the obvious loss on your initial acquistion price?

roadrunner >>



I find it hard to imagine a scenario where the government is going to evaluate each individual coin that a person owns, grade it, and then determine its value. The grade and the value are so subjective that I just don't see this ever being feasible.