"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Oil will not got hat high. In fact I think we may have already seen the highs for our lifetime.
There has been enough damage done that now we are finally looking and investing in alternative energy. The best cure for high prices has indeed been high prices.
If we do not create a renewable source of energy within the next 5 years,
then we will be looking at WW3. It will be a war of survival and it will be to
the death on all sides. The following must be done by the new administration.
1. Large tax deductions for folks buying gas saver models of cars that meet National guidelines There is no reason why we can not produce cars that can get 40 miles a gallon.
2. A 50 billion dollar crash program, on the lines of the A Bomb project, to find practical sources of renewable energy.
3.An immediate program to produce oil from coal to get us thru the next 5 years
4.Implement a wartime style of gas rationing .Subsidize public transportation
5. Develop an empowered commission of industrial leaders and government officials to convert industrial use of oil to more efficient and available sources of energy. This commission to have wartime powers of enforcement.
6. Raise taxes in order to raise funds for this grand undertaking.
7. Reinstitute the draft, to create a large ground force necessary to protect our global interests.
8. Increase our production of food grains. Global warming will create world wide famine. We must become the breadbasket for the world.
9. Place greater urgency on recycling of fats, metals, paper and used tires.
10. Require all new homes to be equipped with the latest , most efficient solar panals together with reverse meters to account for the house producing excess electricity.
11.Reduce meat production in favor of grain production. It take at least 3 pounds of grain to grow one pound of meat.
12. Gear economy for restrictions on the use of imported resources.
13. Develop a cost effective means of creating potable water from waste water and sea water, for massive irrigation projects for drought areas in the US and around the world.
14. Make break throughs available to all Nations throughout the world.
This is one of the main reasons we are paying 120.00 dollar oil today.
The damn media won't shut these gloom and doom idiots up.
Do I really need to know what the inventory levels are every freaking week? I say NO Do I give a rats tush if the Saudi's are blowing smoke? I say NO
What will happen when the true supply dwindles.? We will ship the tree huggers off to the land with no oil nor trees. And drill our own.
Everyone seen what happened when we just MENTIONED the fact we needed to start drilling.
Oil dropped almost 50 dollars a barrel. Once the greed on Wall Street seen the focus was back on the housing issues. And oil worries had started to subside. Oil jumped as high as 25 dollars a barrel.
You don't get 25 dollar spikes because of a slight dollar devaluation...
Oil was here before we walked the Earth. And it will be here when we are gone. Every country but the U.S seems to find more reserves every month...We are the only nation that still has our heads in the sand.
The only thing that will bring 500 dollar oil. Is the media parading these idiots in front of the public. And the GREED that follows with the speculators....
<< <i>There has been enough damage done that now we are finally looking and investing in alternative energy. The best cure for high prices has indeed been high prices. >>
If we are indeed at or near daily production limits which is claimed and we are probably very near, and it should be obvious that with China's vastly increasing demand we are nowhere near peak demand, how can prices not rise. That is a classic recipe for a rise in price.
$200 per barrell by December 2009 impossible?
Witty sig line currently under construction. Thank you for your patience.
Oil will not got hat high. In fact I think we may have already seen the highs for our lifetime.
I will take the counter bet that we have not yet seen the high in oil for our lifetimes....ie the next 20 years. Would be very surprised if we didn't get to $150-$200 by 2011. The tens of TRILLIONs of liquidity being pumped into the world's economies will help ensure oil's new highs. Increased world demand from a growing China and India will only exacerbate the problem.
If the financial system collapses as you predict, do you really think there will be ANY demand for oil? Or are you saying that oil would assume a reserve currency status?
My thought is that China has experienced its "roaring 20s". We all know what the 30s brought.
The movement toward alternative fuels is strong and I believe oil will within 20 years be an energy source relagated to 3rd world use.
The alternative engery crowd has unlimited tax money and market over-pricing to support them. They're like a wall street banker - they can't lose.
Oil's on it's way out - perhaps like R12 freon phased out over 15 years. At first, no big deal, and then later it's price rocketed to $35/lb... but today virtually worthless in America.
The best cure for high prices has indeed been high prices.
Agreed, and the best cure for short supply is always high prices as well. Congress has already backed off its resistance to drilling. If oil ever approached anything like $500 the rigs would go up so quickly the planet would look like a pin cushion. Hopefully though, the alternative energy push is a trend and not a fad, and we'll be out of this mess in a decade or two.
1. Re institute maximum limits on interest rates, especially, credit cards.regulate arbitrary changes in fees, penalties, service charges.
2. Revisit the recent abomination in bankruptcy laws.
3. Regulate bank service charges, fees and penalties with maximum rates. It does not cost a bank 40 dollars to service a bad check. Why charge depositors for checking accounts when you go under 1000. Who has 1000 dollars these day.
4. Re regulate the airlines. Mandate that maintenance be done within the USA. set fair ticket rates to insure the airlines are able to make a fair profit. Insure efficient scheduling for the convenience of travelers.Require reasonable size seating and leg room on all flights. Eliminate irritating charges other then ticket price. Require standards of cleanliness in all aircraft.
5.Re institute the uptick rule in the stock market.
6. Severely limit and regulate all exotic financial instruments where values are difficult to determine. No off the books debts for banks. Increase FDIC insurence to cover 200,000 in deposits.
7. Glass Stegal Law to come back in.
8. Institute excess profit tax on oil company profits.
9. Close loopholes that allow offshore phantom corporate offices that allow corporations doing business in USA to avoid taxes.
10. Provide laws to deal criminally with Executives that abuse the trust of stockholders.
11. Require all pay increases, for executive officers of public held companies, to require authorization by a vote of the stockholders. This would include golden handshakes. Also laws to prevent the abuses of excessive stock options that dilute stockholder equity.
12. Establish standard accounting rules, for company financial statements. This to include easily understandable language to inform rather the confuse the stockholders.
13. Send about 50 financial executives to do hard time in prison, for their acts of commission as well as omission of their fiduciary responsibilities.
If the financial system collapses as you predict, do you really think there will be ANY demand for oil? Or are you saying that oil would assume a reserve currency status?
You must be confusing me with someone else. I've never predicted a system collapse though I've freely discussed consequences. I honestly don't believe a collapse will happen. But things will get far nastier than 95% of US citizens currently believe. Consequently, the rest of those questions are not applicable. But I would say that oil is the closest thing to a reserve currency we have once the dollar loses that status or is replaced by the Yuan.
My thought is that China has experienced its "roaring 20s". We all know what the 30s brought.
China got ahead of itself. It has more left in the tank. And that reserve fuel will actually help the US recover from its funk.
Oil's on it's way out - perhaps like R12 freon phased out over 15 years. At first, no big deal, and then later it's price rocketed to $35/lb... but today virtually worthless in America.
But with at least 20 years of oil use still left, we have a lot of pain to go through. R12 only went "away" because Dupont's patent on it was expiring, hence the need to get us all into something else (ie R134a). Nothing I've read indicates that R134a is more eco-friendly overall than R12. It has its own problems too. Not sure I buy the "virtually worthless" monicker to R12. I was into 1960's muscle cars up to 2004 and ran R12 in all my A/C equipped cars. It was running up to $60-$80/lb. What was left of this stuff was very valuable indeed. It's still cheaper to stay with the R12 than convert the older cars imo. It cools better as well compared to R134a. I think this whole issue was more about perception and profits than it was about the environment. Isn't gold a "barbarous relic" too?
The same argument about gold or silver working their way out of high prices by increasing supply (ie more mines) is a fallacy. Fiat and credit induced volatility of markets has taken away accurate short or long term planning. We've had rapidly increasing gold and silver prices for 7 years and mine production is now the lowest it has been in years! Where are all the new mines?? Even the miners have trouble making money on existing mines thanks to inflation (gas, electricity, materials, tooling, heavy equipment, etc). It takes 5-10 years to bring up a mine from idea to fruition, assuming you don't get knocked-out along the way by environmentalists, politicians, or nimby's. And even then who's to say your mine makes any money? Oil rigs are no different. It takes time to increase production (ie years). By the time a gold or oil spike occurs, the market will be lagging it by years. Thank the anti-everythings of today for keeping investment in infrastructure contained.
i'm more on the demand side of this equation so i say it's bunk. just like the 8K gold fanatics
at $500 a barrel there is a hella lot of other energy sources become "cheaper" maybe they will sell a couple a barrels a week at that price to take care of granny's Cadillac or those folks who still drive Pintos and get credits from some government.
i think NASCAR will take over the Middle East and Tobacco ads will be back on TV first, IMHO, of course.
<< <i>I'm more on the supply side; what if horizontal drilling and fracking make the US the #1 oil producing country in the world someday? >>
or the first to run out of the resources.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"I will take the counter bet that we have not yet seen the high in oil for our lifetimes....ie the next 20 years. Would be very surprised if we didn't get to $150-$200 by 2011. The tens of TRILLIONs of liquidity being pumped into the world's economies will help ensure oil's new highs. Increased world demand from a growing China and India will only exacerbate the problem." roadrunner Tuesday September 23, 2008..
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
"I will take the counter bet that we have not yet seen the high in oil for our lifetimes....ie the next 20 years. Would be very surprised if we didn't get to $150-$200 by 2011. The tens of TRILLIONs of liquidity being pumped into the world's economies will help ensure oil's new highs. Increased world demand from a growing China and India will only exacerbate the problem." roadrunner Tuesday September 23, 2008.. >>
Hmm, another person who doesn't believe in economic or business cycles.
OPA could be close to picking oil's bottom. While oil did not make it back to $147+ in 2011 as I thought it probably would. It was around $90-$100 when I made that Sept 2008 forecast. The rest of the commodity sector pretty much took out the 2008 highs (PM's, industrial metals, grains, softs, etc.). Oil was a laggard due to the huge summer 2008 spike. Pretty good overall call though to state that liquidity from the financial crisis would be spilling over into other assets by 2011. Most commodities peaked in 2011. And for the original oil forecast, "the next 20 years" still has 14 years to go for energy and commodities. And yes, $tens of trillions of liquidity was pumped into the economies with most of it currently residing in stocks and bonds. "Conspiracy at work?" Where was that mentioned? It took OPA 6 yrs to comment on this thread...and it concerns nothing even mentioned by anyone in the entire thread. Par for the course.
My other comments mentioned above did ok too. China did have more left in tank. And it did help the US recover (2009-2014). And the statement about the fallacy of more gold and silver mines to crush PM prices was spot on too. There's been very little production gain in net mining activity since 2008. And what has been gained was done at a much higher production cost + debt levels. Yes, the miners continued to have problems making money even when gold was rocking. They have tripped over themselves hard as gold prices fell the past 3 years. India and China will be back and stronger than ever in the next 14 years, and they will need oil. I don't see them getting it all from nuclear, wind, solar, or other green sources. You still have to heat homes and run automobile engines.
Baley was spot on with his fracking and supply comments. Good call. Still have to see if fracking has longevity considering how fast the depletion is on these wells.
The movement toward alternative fuels is strong and I believe oil will within 20 years be an energy source relegated to 3rd world use.
Cohodk is now 14 years away from this projection and oil doesn't seem any less important than it did in 2008. Alternative energy's still struggling...and w/o subsidies would be nowhere. Commodities should have a resurgence in 2015-2020. I think that will only add to oil's importance and price. My home will still be heated by oil in 14 years and both my cars will be run by gasoline only....but that's a conspiracy isn't it? Or maybe just good old BLS CPI subsitutional effects in play. . If have to think that if oil is relegated to third world status in <14 years then so will the USDollar. Aren't they joined at the hip in dollar-oil-military complex? Are all the US ships, tanks, planes, and trucks in 14 years going to be nuclear or battery/solar powered?
The drop in oil prices is due to a price war and ongoing currency wars that are making the dollar look relatively strong at the moment. These situations hadn't developed as of 2008. Oil demand isn't going to crash for very long. It's always going to be one of the most efficient and best energy sources around, until it truly does run dry. Economies and wars run on oil, and on finance.
$150/bbl oil will happen well within the next 14 years. World population growth all but guarantees it, never mind the supply issues that are probably there.
Of course, there's also still the distinct possibility that $150 might buy you a tank of gas in 14 years, and that might be at bargain prices. One little dip in the price of crude and everyone thinks that something has changed. It hasn't.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
drop in oil is an attempt to force Russia to return to accepting dollars for energy. Saudis are but a pawn in this game and Russia will not be convinced. Their remaining trades that do involve dollars are quickly converted to gold. Russia is a bigger player (especially to europe) than most realize.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yep, good observation and good call by Baley.
The drop in oil prices is due to a price war and ongoing currency wars that are making the dollar look relatively strong at the moment. These situations hadn't developed as of 2008. Oil demand isn't going to crash for very long. It's always going to be one of the most efficient and best energy sources around, until it truly does run dry. Economies and wars run on oil, and on finance.
$150/bbl oil will happen well within the next 14 years. World population growth all but guarantees it, never mind the supply issues that are probably there.
Of course, there's also still the distinct possibility that $150 might buy you a tank of gas in 14 years, and that might be at bargain prices. One little dip in the price of crude and everyone thinks that something has changed. It hasn't. >>
Besides world growth, there's the little issue of currency debasement which has been going on for >100 years. The only way we don't see $150 oil in cohodk's lifetime is if govt's initiate balanced budgets and stick to them. It's sort of like a Catch 22. If we watch our spending then the US oil/military-based economy will weaken - and so will the dollar's purchasing power. Either way, the price of oil will return as strong as ever. The oil and military oligarchs will see to it. Armstrong feels we've entered a new war cycle, something industrialized nations almost have to do to bring their economies out of the doldrums. That too will be kind to oil prices. World's reserve currency and oil dependency/dominance are nearly the same thing.
Speaking of debasement, take a peak at the dollar index on Sinclair's website. Boom, straight up from 89.13 to 89.40 in (seconds?). Almost as if by magic. Sorta.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Well, if nothing else the Saudis have made the Keystone XL Pipeline unnecessary.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>Yep, good observation and good call by Baley... >>
It tells me volumes about statements by some people on this thread as to what is going to happen, when people CAN NOT OR DO NOT read something as basic as what is right in front of their faces. If you look people, Baley was the one who RESURRECTED this thread on 12/5/14.
FWIW, I do think that oil will trend higher over the next 14 years and will still be a major energy source for decades yet to come.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>Yep, good observation and good call by Baley... >>
It tells me volumes about statements by some people on this thread as to what is going to happen, when people CAN NOT OR DO NOT read something as basic as what is right in front of their faces. If you look people, Baley was the one who RESURRECTED this thread on 12/5/14.
FWIW, I do think that oil will trend higher over the next 14 years and will still be a major energy source for decades yet to come. >>
Easy now its an old convoluted thread and a quotes tend to run amuck even in the short threads
It tells me volumes about statements by some people on this thread as to what is going to happen, when people CAN NOT OR DO NOT read something as basic as what is right in front of their faces.
Thanks for the dressing-down Skyman. Feel better now?
FYI, my comments were directed in context at what Baley said, not when he said them.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I thought you were referring to comments I've made over the past decade on numerous threads referencing the concept of "regression toward the mean" usually made during bubbles and crashes
I thought you were referring to comments I've made over the past decade on numerous threads referencing the concept of "regression toward the mean" usually made during bubbles and crashes
Not so much. I was reading 57loaded's comments on demand, and your comments on supply side, and I was in general agreement with both of you as far as $500 oil goes, at least anytime soon. My unpardonable sin was in looking at 57loaded's post date and then having it in my brain while I was agreeing with your comment.
Sorry, Baley. I must have given you too much credit for seeing into the future.
Regression toward the mean has plenty of validity, but the mean does trend over time. Are you ok with that statement, Skyman?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Oil down to $60 now. It has retraced 66% of the 2009-2011 rally (35 to 115). Weekly RSI is a miserly 13. The 200 week moving average is at $96. 200 month moving average is at $60.30. So when is regression to the mean complete?
Fwiw I put an 18 month Raff regression channel on the monthly chart and the bottom of the channel was $60.68. It's there. The middle of the channel is $81....maybe about time to regress back to than mean? The weekly channel has a bit more room...down to $57.60. Oil prices back to Feb 2006 levels....silver was $10/oz back then.
<< <i>Oil down to $60 now. It has retraced 66% of the 2009-2011 rally (35 to 115). Weekly RSI is a miserly 13. The 200 week moving average is at $96. 200 month moving average is at $60.30. So when is regression to the mean complete?
Fwiw I put an 18 month Raff regression channel on the monthly chart and the bottom of the channel was $60.68. It's there. The middle of the channel is $81....maybe about time to regress back to than mean? The weekly channel has a bit more room...down to $57.60. Oil prices back to Feb 2006 levels....silver was $10/oz back then. >>
No doubt it's getting interesting with the free fall, deviation from the mean and Fibonacci.
Comments
Link
prius... ;-)
not to mention $20 Milk, $6 bread...........I think I'll quit while I'm ahead
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>Time to go put my head in the sand.... >>
Time to fill my tanks and the jerry cans.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
There has been enough damage done that now we are finally looking and investing in alternative energy. The best cure for high prices has indeed been high prices.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
then we will be looking at WW3. It will be a war of survival and it will be to
the death on all sides. The following must be done by the new administration.
1. Large tax deductions for folks buying gas saver models of cars that meet National guidelines
There is no reason why we can not produce cars that can get 40 miles a gallon.
2. A 50 billion dollar crash program, on the lines of the A Bomb project, to find practical sources of renewable energy.
3.An immediate program to produce oil from coal to get us thru the next 5 years
4.Implement a wartime style of gas rationing .Subsidize public transportation
5. Develop an empowered commission of industrial leaders and government officials to convert
industrial use of oil to more efficient and available sources of energy. This commission to have
wartime powers of enforcement.
6. Raise taxes in order to raise funds for this grand undertaking.
7. Reinstitute the draft, to create a large ground force necessary to protect our global interests.
8. Increase our production of food grains. Global warming will create world wide famine. We must become
the breadbasket for the world.
9. Place greater urgency on recycling of fats, metals, paper and used tires.
10. Require all new homes to be equipped with the latest , most efficient solar panals together with reverse
meters to account for the house producing excess electricity.
11.Reduce meat production in favor of grain production. It take at least 3 pounds of grain to
grow one pound of meat.
12. Gear economy for restrictions on the use of imported resources.
13. Develop a cost effective means of creating potable water from waste water and sea water, for
massive irrigation projects for drought areas in the US and around the world.
14. Make break throughs available to all Nations throughout the world.
7.
Camelot
I can't think of much else except maybe perhaps the construction of a few more golf courses (this can be deemed 'Green Environmental areas")
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
The damn media won't shut these gloom and doom idiots up.
Do I really need to know what the inventory levels are every freaking week? I say NO
Do I give a rats tush if the Saudi's are blowing smoke? I say NO
What will happen when the true supply dwindles.? We will ship the tree huggers off to
the land with no oil nor trees. And drill our own.
Everyone seen what happened when we just MENTIONED the fact we needed to start drilling.
Oil dropped almost 50 dollars a barrel. Once the greed on Wall Street seen the focus was back on the housing
issues. And oil worries had started to subside. Oil jumped as high as 25 dollars a barrel.
You don't get 25 dollar spikes because of a slight dollar devaluation...
Oil was here before we walked the Earth. And it will be here when we are gone. Every country but the
U.S seems to find more reserves every month...We are the only nation that still has our heads in the sand.
The only thing that will bring 500 dollar oil. Is the media parading these idiots in front of the public.
And the GREED that follows with the speculators....
on our faces to lubricate our Colt 45s. Maybe if
everyone saves face oil in a jar, we can end our
dependence on foreign oil.
Camelot
it just will not fit into a one gallon bag of supply.
Camelot
<< <i>There has been enough damage done that now we are finally looking and investing in alternative energy. The best cure for high prices has indeed been high prices. >>
$200 per barrell by December 2009 impossible?
I will take the counter bet that we have not yet seen the high in oil for our lifetimes....ie the next 20 years. Would be very surprised if we didn't get to $150-$200 by 2011. The tens of TRILLIONs of liquidity being pumped into the world's economies will help ensure oil's new highs. Increased world demand from a growing China and India will only exacerbate the problem.
roadrunner
If the financial system collapses as you predict, do you really think there will be ANY demand for oil? Or are you saying that oil would assume a reserve currency status?
My thought is that China has experienced its "roaring 20s". We all know what the 30s brought.
The movement toward alternative fuels is strong and I believe oil will within 20 years be an energy source relagated to 3rd world use.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The alternative engery crowd has unlimited tax money and market over-pricing to support them. They're like a wall street banker - they can't lose.
Oil's on it's way out - perhaps like R12 freon phased out over 15 years. At first, no big deal, and then later it's price rocketed to $35/lb... but today virtually worthless in America.
Agreed, and the best cure for short supply is always high prices as well. Congress has already backed off its resistance to drilling. If oil ever approached anything like $500 the rigs would go up so quickly the planet would look like a pin cushion. Hopefully though, the alternative energy push is a trend and not a fad, and we'll be out of this mess in a decade or two.
<< <i>I remember in survival training, we used the oil
on our faces to lubricate our Colt 45s. Maybe if
everyone saves face oil in a jar, we can end our
dependence on foreign oil.
It's good for making Morgans look nice too!
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
1. Re institute maximum limits on interest rates, especially, credit cards.regulate arbitrary changes in fees, penalties, service charges.
2. Revisit the recent abomination in bankruptcy laws.
3. Regulate bank service charges, fees and penalties with maximum rates. It does
not cost a bank 40 dollars to service a bad check. Why charge depositors for checking
accounts when you go under 1000. Who has 1000 dollars these day.
4. Re regulate the airlines. Mandate that maintenance be done within the USA.
set fair ticket rates to insure the airlines are able to make a fair profit. Insure
efficient scheduling for the convenience of travelers.Require reasonable size seating
and leg room on all flights. Eliminate irritating charges other then ticket price. Require
standards of cleanliness in all aircraft.
5.Re institute the uptick rule in the stock market.
6. Severely limit and regulate all exotic financial instruments where values are difficult to
determine. No off the books debts for banks. Increase FDIC insurence to cover 200,000
in deposits.
7. Glass Stegal Law to come back in.
8. Institute excess profit tax on oil company profits.
9. Close loopholes that allow offshore phantom corporate offices that allow corporations doing
business in USA to avoid taxes.
10. Provide laws to deal criminally with Executives that abuse the trust of stockholders.
11. Require all pay increases, for executive officers of public held companies, to require authorization
by a vote of the stockholders. This would include golden handshakes. Also laws to prevent the abuses
of excessive stock options that dilute stockholder equity.
12. Establish standard accounting rules, for company financial statements. This to include easily understandable
language to inform rather the confuse the stockholders.
13. Send about 50 financial executives to do hard time in prison, for their acts of commission as well as omission
of their fiduciary responsibilities.
Camelot
You must be confusing me with someone else. I've never predicted a system collapse though I've freely discussed consequences. I honestly don't believe a collapse will happen. But things will get far nastier than 95% of US citizens currently believe. Consequently, the rest of those questions are not applicable. But I would say that oil is the closest thing to a reserve currency we have once the dollar loses that status or is replaced by the Yuan.
My thought is that China has experienced its "roaring 20s". We all know what the 30s brought.
China got ahead of itself. It has more left in the tank. And that reserve fuel will actually help the US recover from its funk.
Oil's on it's way out - perhaps like R12 freon phased out over 15 years. At first, no big deal, and then later it's price rocketed to $35/lb... but today virtually worthless in America.
But with at least 20 years of oil use still left, we have a lot of pain to go through. R12 only went "away" because Dupont's patent on it was expiring, hence the need to get us all into something else (ie R134a). Nothing I've read indicates that R134a is more eco-friendly overall than R12. It has its own problems too. Not sure I buy the "virtually worthless" monicker to R12. I was into 1960's muscle cars up to 2004 and ran R12 in all my A/C equipped cars. It was running up to $60-$80/lb. What was left of this stuff was very valuable indeed. It's still cheaper to stay with the R12 than convert the older cars imo. It cools better as well compared to R134a. I think this whole issue was more about perception and profits than it was about the environment. Isn't gold a "barbarous relic" too?
The same argument about gold or silver working their way out of high prices by increasing supply (ie more mines) is a fallacy. Fiat and credit induced volatility of markets has taken away accurate short or long term planning. We've had rapidly increasing gold and silver prices for 7 years and mine production is now the lowest it has been in years! Where are all the new mines?? Even the miners have trouble making money on existing mines thanks to inflation (gas, electricity, materials, tooling, heavy equipment, etc). It takes 5-10 years to bring up a mine from idea to fruition, assuming you don't get knocked-out along the way by environmentalists, politicians, or nimby's. And even then who's to say your mine makes any money? Oil rigs are no different. It takes time to increase production (ie years). By the time a gold or oil spike occurs, the market will be lagging it by years. Thank the anti-everythings of today for keeping investment in infrastructure contained.
roadrunner
at $500 a barrel there is a hella lot of other energy sources become "cheaper" maybe they will sell a couple a barrels a week at that price to take care of granny's Cadillac or those folks who still drive Pintos and get credits from some government.
i think NASCAR will take over the Middle East and Tobacco ads will be back on TV first, IMHO, of course.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>I'm more on the supply side; what if horizontal drilling and fracking make the US the #1 oil producing country in the world someday? >>
or the first to run out of the resources.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"I will take the counter bet that we have not yet seen the high in oil for our lifetimes....ie the next 20 years. Would be very surprised if we didn't get to $150-$200 by 2011. The tens of TRILLIONs of liquidity being pumped into the world's economies will help ensure oil's new highs. Increased world demand from a growing China and India will only exacerbate the problem." roadrunner Tuesday September 23, 2008..
<< <i>Conspiracy at work .... just ask RR
"I will take the counter bet that we have not yet seen the high in oil for our lifetimes....ie the next 20 years. Would be very surprised if we didn't get to $150-$200 by 2011. The tens of TRILLIONs of liquidity being pumped into the world's economies will help ensure oil's new highs. Increased world demand from a growing China and India will only exacerbate the problem." roadrunner Tuesday September 23, 2008.. >>
Hmm, another person who doesn't believe in economic or business cycles.
OPA could be close to picking oil's bottom. While oil did not make it back to $147+ in 2011 as I thought it probably would. It was around $90-$100 when I made that Sept 2008 forecast. The rest of the commodity sector pretty much took out the 2008 highs (PM's, industrial metals, grains, softs, etc.). Oil was a laggard due to the huge summer 2008 spike. Pretty good overall call though to state that liquidity from the financial crisis would be spilling over into other assets by 2011. Most commodities peaked in 2011. And for the original oil forecast, "the next 20 years" still has 14 years to go for energy and commodities. And yes, $tens of trillions of liquidity was pumped into the economies with most of it currently residing in stocks and bonds. "Conspiracy at work?" Where was that mentioned? It took OPA 6 yrs to comment on this thread...and it concerns nothing even mentioned by anyone in the entire thread. Par for the course.
My other comments mentioned above did ok too. China did have more left in tank. And it did help the US recover (2009-2014). And the statement about the fallacy of more gold and silver mines to crush PM prices was spot on too. There's been very little production gain in net mining activity since 2008. And what has been gained was done at a much higher production cost + debt levels. Yes, the miners continued to have problems making money even when gold was rocking. They have tripped over themselves hard as gold prices fell the past 3 years. India and China will be back and stronger than ever in the next 14 years, and they will need oil. I don't see them getting it all from nuclear, wind, solar, or other green sources. You still have to heat homes and run automobile engines.
Baley was spot on with his fracking and supply comments. Good call. Still have to see if fracking has longevity considering how fast the depletion is on these wells.
The movement toward alternative fuels is strong and I believe oil will within 20 years be an energy source relegated to 3rd world use.
Cohodk is now 14 years away from this projection and oil doesn't seem any less important than it did in 2008. Alternative energy's still struggling...and w/o subsidies would be nowhere. Commodities should have a resurgence in 2015-2020. I think that will only add to oil's importance and price. My home will still be heated by oil in 14 years and both my cars will be run by gasoline only....but that's a conspiracy isn't it? Or maybe just good old BLS CPI subsitutional effects in play.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The drop in oil prices is due to a price war and ongoing currency wars that are making the dollar look relatively strong at the moment. These situations hadn't developed as of 2008. Oil demand isn't going to crash for very long. It's always going to be one of the most efficient and best energy sources around, until it truly does run dry. Economies and wars run on oil, and on finance.
$150/bbl oil will happen well within the next 14 years. World population growth all but guarantees it, never mind the supply issues that are probably there.
Of course, there's also still the distinct possibility that $150 might buy you a tank of gas in 14 years, and that might be at bargain prices. One little dip in the price of crude and everyone thinks that something has changed. It hasn't.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yep, good observation and good call by Baley.
The drop in oil prices is due to a price war and ongoing currency wars that are making the dollar look relatively strong at the moment. These situations hadn't developed as of 2008. Oil demand isn't going to crash for very long. It's always going to be one of the most efficient and best energy sources around, until it truly does run dry. Economies and wars run on oil, and on finance.
$150/bbl oil will happen well within the next 14 years. World population growth all but guarantees it, never mind the supply issues that are probably there.
Of course, there's also still the distinct possibility that $150 might buy you a tank of gas in 14 years, and that might be at bargain prices. One little dip in the price of crude and everyone thinks that something has changed. It hasn't. >>
Besides world growth, there's the little issue of currency debasement which has been going on for >100 years. The only way we don't see $150 oil in cohodk's lifetime is if govt's initiate balanced budgets and stick to them. It's sort of like a Catch 22. If we watch our spending then the US oil/military-based economy will weaken - and so will the dollar's purchasing power. Either way, the price of oil will return as strong as ever. The oil and military oligarchs will see to it. Armstrong feels we've entered a new war cycle, something industrialized nations almost have to do to bring their economies out of the doldrums. That too will be kind to oil prices. World's reserve currency and oil dependency/dominance are nearly the same thing.
I knew it would happen.
At the moment oil is like milk but if necessary oil would become like ice cream
<< <i>Yep, good observation and good call by Baley... >>
It tells me volumes about statements by some people on this thread as to what is going to happen, when people CAN NOT OR DO NOT read something as basic as what is right in front of their faces. If you look people, Baley was the one who RESURRECTED this thread on 12/5/14.
FWIW, I do think that oil will trend higher over the next 14 years and will still be a major energy source for decades yet to come.
U.S. Type Set
<< <i>
<< <i>Yep, good observation and good call by Baley... >>
It tells me volumes about statements by some people on this thread as to what is going to happen, when people CAN NOT OR DO NOT read something as basic as what is right in front of their faces. If you look people, Baley was the one who RESURRECTED this thread on 12/5/14.
FWIW, I do think that oil will trend higher over the next 14 years and will still be a major energy source for decades yet to come. >>
Easy now
Thanks for the dressing-down Skyman. Feel better now?
FYI, my comments were directed in context at what Baley said, not when he said them.
I knew it would happen.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Not so much. I was reading 57loaded's comments on demand, and your comments on supply side, and I was in general agreement with both of you as far as $500 oil goes, at least anytime soon. My unpardonable sin was in looking at 57loaded's post date and then having it in my brain while I was agreeing with your comment.
Sorry, Baley. I must have given you too much credit for seeing into the future.
Regression toward the mean has plenty of validity, but the mean does trend over time. Are you ok with that statement, Skyman?
I knew it would happen.
So when is regression to the mean complete?
Fwiw I put an 18 month Raff regression channel on the monthly chart and the bottom of the channel was $60.68. It's there. The middle of the channel is $81....maybe about time to regress back to than mean?
The weekly channel has a bit more room...down to $57.60. Oil prices back to Feb 2006 levels....silver was $10/oz back then.
<< <i>Oil down to $60 now. It has retraced 66% of the 2009-2011 rally (35 to 115). Weekly RSI is a miserly 13. The 200 week moving average is at $96. 200 month moving average is at $60.30.
So when is regression to the mean complete?
Fwiw I put an 18 month Raff regression channel on the monthly chart and the bottom of the channel was $60.68. It's there. The middle of the channel is $81....maybe about time to regress back to than mean?
The weekly channel has a bit more room...down to $57.60. Oil prices back to Feb 2006 levels....silver was $10/oz back then. >>
No doubt it's getting interesting with the free fall, deviation from the mean and Fibonacci.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You know how much I love single digit to teen RSI. UWTI.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear