Poll:Will the current shortage of bars/rounds spur another big melt of 90% coins?

BlackBeard

There was a big melt in the early 1980's. Will the demand for .999 silver bars in smaller sizes and the current shortage of availble 1, 5, and 10oz bars and 1oz rounds bring a new big melt? As I saw mentioned in another post, customers are after bullion silver bars/rounds more than 90% coins.

fc

i voted no. this is a temporary thing. price drops dramatically
and every other joe public wants in. over time this will level off.

expect many northern folks, when they get their first large heating
bill, to sell some off no matter the price.

mkman123

don't people already melt some 90% silver or is this not allowed? Reason I ask is I've seen large tubs of somewhat damaged coins that were destined to be melted.

BlackBeard

Melting does take place. But there was a big melting period during the last silver run up in the late 1970's early 1980's where a large amounts of silver coins were melted. The poll questions whether you believe there will be a large increase in what is being melted.

Some information on the 1980 melt.

rgCoinGuy

I voted no because prices have come Down almost 50% on silver, melting would have happenned on the other end of the ride. Those with 90% that would sell them for melt, are not doing it to help PM bugs get their bars.

roadrunner

expect many northern folks, when they get their first large heating
bill, to sell some off no matter the price.

There isn't enough silver in the hands of those who might not be able to pay their heating bills to make a spit of difference in the price of silver going forward. Most of the silver that the public held in the 60's and 70's was plucked out of change at face value. Most of them sold off what they had long ago (either at the peak or during the ensuing bottoms along the way).

I don't know of anyone outside the coin hobby (work, play, friends, relatives, etc) who has a stash of silver.

roadrunner

cinman14

I have a customer of mine that his wife has worked in the cash office of a local Wal Mart for almost
30 years.

He was talking to me when silver was in the 19-20 dollar range. He said his wife has pulled out over
20 rolls of Kennedy and a few Franklin rolls during her years when they had to count by hand.

They have no interest other than pure investment value of the silver.... 20 rolls at face value would be
a good investment...

I got your point. But I just wanted to add a new perspective on who may be holding more than we know.

COINB0Y

expect many northern folks, when they get their first large heating

You mean just like when I expected many southern folks got their first large AC bill, to sell some off no matter the price?

fc, you are hilarious!

Just like roadrunner said, if they are that poor, they gave up ANY silver, if they even HAD it in the first place long ago to pay bills.

roadrunner

Most folk up here in the northeast are probably selling off their extra toys if extra cash is needed going forward (boats, 3rd and 4th cars, 2nd homes, motorcycles, health club membership, etc.).

20 rolls of Kennedy's doesn't quite qualify as a significant stash of silver in this market though it would come in handy as a short term family emergency source of cash in a crunch. Those folk, even with only 20 rolls of silver halves make up less than 1% of all Americans. If the silver is out there, it is much more concentrated among relatively few individuals such as bags of 90% and dozens or hundreds of 100/1000 oz bars, etc.

roadrunner

jmski52

It seems to me that there is more 99% silver and less 90% coinage around these days than there was during the 1980 Melt.

I think that there's more utility in the small units than in the 100 oz. bars or larger, so I don't see a big melt of 90% coming no matter what the market does.

fc

<< <i>expect many northern folks, when they get their first large heating

You mean just like when I expected many southern folks got their first large AC bill, to sell some off no matter the price?

fc, you are hilarious!

Just like roadrunner said, if they are that poor, they gave up ANY silver, if they even HAD it in the first place long ago to pay bills. >>



i am so hilarious...

you ever wonder why pawn shops exist in every region of each state?

summer allows people in New England to spend freely. Along comes
winter and they remember very quickly they have large bills to pay
that are higher then the year before. Some are coin/bullion owners.

the bullion speculation reaches everywhere. I walk into coin stores
and the people selling silver do not look rich to me.

your experience may vary.

mkman123

guys, I thought it was illegal to melt US coins? I thought I read something that melting is defacing government property or something like that. Please educate me on this.

roadrunner

If you've spent any time at coin shops or at coin shows you'll quickly realize that those who look the poorest, usually have the most money. Never judge a potential customer by their clothes.

roadrunner

mkman123

roadrunner I know what you mean (guys roadrunner is talking about something I posted but I edited it as I wanted to say something else)

The thing is, in my city there is a big meth problem and some of the people going in to sell the 90% coins or what not do very much look like the stereotypical meth addict.

But I know what you mean about people looking the poorest could have the most money. There are some guys who are pretty unkempt and buy a good amount of gold/silver.

Mike

fc

<< <i>If you've spent any time at coin shops or at coin shows you'll quickly realize that those who look the poorest, usually have the most money. Never judge a potential customer by their clothes.

roadrunner >>



it is not just the clothes, but the manner of how they speak, education
level when discussing the items shines through, and an overall
feeling you get.

oh sure, i know what you mean.. the whole judge a book by its cover
thing.

Overdate

During the 1980's melt, the price of silver was way up, there were tons of sellers, and dealers were paying a considerable discount to the value of the silver in the 90% coins.

At the moment, the price of silver is way down, there are tons of buyers, and common 90% silver is going on eBay at about a 15% premium to the value of silver in the coins.

BlackBeard

<< <i>During the 1980's melt, the price of silver was way up, there were tons of sellers, and dealers were paying a considerable discount to the value of the silver in the 90% coins.

At the moment, the price of silver is way down, there are tons of buyers, and common 90% silver is going on eBay at about a 15% premium to the value of silver in the coins. >>



But consider that .999 bars and rounds on ebay are going for over 25% premium or sometimes considerably more before shipping costs are added in and this could leave room for a profitable melt. All forms on ebay seem to be experiencing increased pricing over melt.

The ASE's I just saw on ebay are going for $18+ pre-hammer. People are strongly buying silver, as you noted.