IMHO, most of the big coins I need have already been scooped up and are locked away in the registry. I haven't seen many I would buy recently. Therefore, I think it will only get harder to find the coins I'm looking for if the prices decline. I may have to branch out and start collecting some other under appreciated series.
Steve
U.S. Air Force Security Forces Retired
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
The material I collect is NOT in decline. Prices are so high for what's available, I've only bought ONE coin in the last year. Based on what I saw at my last Long Beach Show, coupled with all of ONE lot that has my attention @ the Heritage Auction, I probably will give this Long Beach a miss.
The only coin I'd buy right now is a certain Large Cent owned by TDN.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
While I agree there are some sectors of the market that have seen softening, I think the idea of continuing the pursuit for the $5 Fatty and early $10, regardless of prevalent conditions, is a good choice. I don't see nice, problem-free, and unscrubbed early gold going on the cheap anytime soon.
I will buy, selectively, no matter what the market is doing. Coins that I collect (19th century proofs) can be elusive with the look that I prefer.
I am a very long term collector. I am sure that I will buy a few at peaks, and I am also sure that I will buy at some bottoms. Dollar cost averageing.
I believe that if your holding period is going to be measured in decades, the fact that you bought coins in 2006, 2008, or 2010 will not make too big of a difference. At least that is what I hope.
If coins are a 'hobby' then there certainly has been damage to 'real investments', be it gold, real estate, us stocks, int'l stocks, high yield bonds, lending and credit standards......
The risk premium is being wrung out of the marketplace in all these areas.....not to mention the unemployment rate.
One might argue that since coins are a 'hobby' they theoretically are not affected by this 'wringing' out of risk premiums since they are presumably bought with discretionary funds....
The problem is some of those collectors who bought coins with discretionary funds have fewer funds.....
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I think this all depends on the country, the coin series and perhaps the two most important components within that which true rarity and condition rarity. I am of the view that true rarity is okay and the better place to be. I would avoid some of the condition rarities that have a fairly significant population in an attractive grade. While there will always be those collectors that want the best, I really just can not see spending big money on an 1881-s Morgan that grades MS68 when there are likely 50,000 or more that have been graded 65 and higher if one combined NGC and PCGS and discounts the number by 30% for crackouts and resubmissions.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>Uh-oh....the financial world will continue to be turned upside tommorow...tune into cnbc.... >>
No kidding... Until I can find something better and more enjoyable to put my money in, I'm going to continue to look for nice coins; and with so many of the poster on this board waiting and trying to time the market, maybe I'll be able to scoop up some good deals
The risk premium is being wrung out of the marketplace in all these areas
I've never understood why a "risk premium" should exist in the first place. Arbitrageurs should remove it from the marketplace by taking on riskier investments with abnormally high expected returns.
On the other hand, it makes sense that some investors would require a "risk premium" before buying. It's just that these risk averse buyers should be priced out of the market.
Can anyone here explain what I'm missing? (Sorry, I know that this is OT, but this has been bugging me since Economics 101.)
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I just completed a sale of very collector type coins from the Lordmarcovan collection. I made it difficult for anyone to buy the entire set as the rules I set up required a 11% addition to the individual prices of each coin.
The prices attained were just about what I expected.
It does not reflect any weakness in the less expensive coin market. While some bidders expressed surprise that some coins did not have heated bidding, it was exactly what I expected.
These were coins in the old ANACS, NGC and PCI holders. There were of below average to average quality.
The price for the entire set was $2272 in 2001, about $400 too cheap due to the 9/11 aftermarket.
The price it sold for (pending an unlikely overbid at the last minute) was $4646.
Perhaps 6 months ago, such set might have sold for $5000 but even in this market the coins have still generated a conservative 8% annual return even on my assumed correct starting price of $2672 which is $400 higher than my actual cost.
Not exciting returns but then AIG and WM and LEH are much more exciting these days!
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Steve
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
The only coin I'd buy right now is a certain Large Cent owned by TDN.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
regards,
'dude
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I am a very long term collector. I am sure that I will buy a few at peaks, and I am also sure that I will buy at some bottoms. Dollar cost averageing.
I believe that if your holding period is going to be measured in decades, the fact that you bought coins in 2006, 2008, or 2010 will not make too big of a difference. At least that is what I hope.
merse
The risk premium is being wrung out of the marketplace in all these areas.....not to mention the unemployment rate.
One might argue that since coins are a 'hobby' they theoretically are not affected by this 'wringing' out of risk premiums since they are presumably bought with discretionary funds....
The problem is some of those collectors who bought coins with discretionary funds have fewer funds.....
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Uh-oh....the financial world will continue to be turned upside tommorow...tune into cnbc.... >>
No kidding... Until I can find something better and more enjoyable to put my money in, I'm going to continue to look for nice coins; and with so many of the poster on this board waiting and trying to time the market, maybe I'll be able to scoop up some good deals
She's been begging for coins for 6 months, anything you have that's "good" and she sees 3 sets come for sale and is running.
I guess she only has one ball.
I've never understood why a "risk premium" should exist in the first place. Arbitrageurs should remove it from the marketplace by taking on riskier investments with abnormally high expected returns.
On the other hand, it makes sense that some investors would require a "risk premium" before buying. It's just that these risk averse buyers should be priced out of the market.
Can anyone here explain what I'm missing? (Sorry, I know that this is OT, but this has been bugging me since Economics 101.)
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Someone sell me some draped bust heraldic eagle half dimes, dimes, and quarters at lower prices.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The prices attained were just about what I expected.
It does not reflect any weakness in the less expensive coin market. While some bidders expressed surprise that some coins did not have heated bidding, it was exactly what I expected.
These were coins in the old ANACS, NGC and PCI holders. There were of below average to average quality.
The price for the entire set was $2272 in 2001, about $400 too cheap due to the 9/11 aftermarket.
The price it sold for (pending an unlikely overbid at the last minute) was $4646.
Perhaps 6 months ago, such set might have sold for $5000 but even in this market the coins have still generated a conservative 8% annual return even on my assumed correct starting price of $2672 which is $400 higher than my actual cost.
Not exciting returns but then AIG and WM and LEH are much more exciting these days!