Now that the coin market is officially in decline...
RYK
Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
what coins are you going to try to scoop up at lower prices? How much of a fall in price are you going to wait for? Are you going to wait to jump in until TDN says it's okay? Will you continue to buy coins in your area(s) of interest regardless of market conditions? Are you going to sell into the decline?
I will answer my own questions:
what coins are you going to try to scoop up at lower prices?
I would like to buy a High Relief Saint at lower prices. I would also like to pick up some early gold (a $10 and Fat Head $5)
How much of a fall in price are you going to wait for?
20-30% for the items above, but it depends
Are you going to wait to jump in until TDN says it's okay?
It would probably be smart because he has called all of the moves correctly in the past
Will you continue to buy coins in your area(s) of interest regardless of market conditions?
Yes, but I will try to avoid the impulse purchases, the ones that you end up selling in the next year or two. These are really killers.
Are you going to sell into the decline?
About 10% of my collection consists of coins for which I would rather have the capital for other coin purchases. I will sell these judiciously as the market allows.
I will answer my own questions:
what coins are you going to try to scoop up at lower prices?
I would like to buy a High Relief Saint at lower prices. I would also like to pick up some early gold (a $10 and Fat Head $5)
How much of a fall in price are you going to wait for?
20-30% for the items above, but it depends
Are you going to wait to jump in until TDN says it's okay?
It would probably be smart because he has called all of the moves correctly in the past
Will you continue to buy coins in your area(s) of interest regardless of market conditions?
Yes, but I will try to avoid the impulse purchases, the ones that you end up selling in the next year or two. These are really killers.
Are you going to sell into the decline?
About 10% of my collection consists of coins for which I would rather have the capital for other coin purchases. I will sell these judiciously as the market allows.
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Comments
Yup.
You mean you're going to run counter to Doug Winter's "faux" rarities philosophy?
roadrunner
I am going to get a nice MP Lincoln after they crash next year. I will contiue to buy Gold, Silver and Platinum.
<< <i>RYK, those high reliefs already experienced a nice drop after the last run-up in gold back in 2006. That was a good time to dip in.
You mean you're going to run counter to Doug Winter's "faux" rarities philosophy?
roadrunner >>
I would like to own a nice HR for my Box of 20 gold coins, regardless of what anyone else thinks of them. A fellow forum member offered me a choice piece a few years ago, and I still kick myself for not buying it.
Early proofs (MPL's, etc)...
Key dates, if prices drop...
But I think there are plenty of areas for collectors to buy that won't pull back.
I don't think the recent year over year run-up in rarities has sufficiently brought up lower grade values in various collector series where originality is stressed. There is also not enough bifurcation in lower grade scarcities where there is originality. They have catching up to do, not decline, in my opinion.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I have been on the sidelines for a little over a year now and I will only buy some lower grade stuff that just sings to me.
I have a few high ticket items on my radar but I think it is way too early in this coin downturn to jump in yet.
I put a lot of value on TDN's opinions as he has a finger on the pulse of the market that I am not privy to.
They say patience is a virtue, but it sure gives you an itchy finger and like you said, those impulse sales are usually head shakers in no time at all.
Let me just add that I am referring to US coins here and the same is not true in my opinion for some darkside material to include medals and tokens. Some of these are screaming steals if you look hard enough for them. The overall economic picture lends itself to this historically.
It is not just our little forrum that sees the sky falling.
I will still buy a coin (on an individual basis) where I see 'value' per grade given and originality.
Hopefully they will get easier to buy,,but doubt it (and agree with bidask)
One person on eBay knows the answer to the first question but I highly doubt it will be much lower in price as compared to the fall of a certain PM.
Rise and fall has no bearing on my approach. I'm slow and selective #2
I think TDN's answer was perfect and entertaining on question 3
Yes to number 4
I will sell a few pieces but they haven't lost value, they've gained, hence... a selling point. And that wraps it up for me
And finally, I will not be selling any modern coins to Legend
Well, I can dream, can't I?
<< <i>Are you going to wait to jump in until TDN says it's okay? >>
Nope, that dinosaur lost it long ago when he didn't buy a certain 1804 coin...
JK! he's been pretty darn good at seeing ahead so why not?
And if prices realllly drop, perhaps an 1870-s seated dollar
<< <i>"Now that the coin market is officially in decline..." I missed the memo, when did that start? I thought we were still in the "bifurcated market" era...
The official proclamation was yesterday. You snooze, you lose.
Bifurcation? That was two years ago.
Now they are going for $50K.
I think you're only in the foothills and don;t see the mountain ahead of you.
*I think the HRs are too high considering the POPs. I'd MUCH rather take the $50K and buy a great low pop Saint like a 1912 or 1914 MS66 for the money.
Will they sell the coins for a loss or just hold on for the sucker born every moment?
I'm a collector and all i want are good coins. I don't care where the market is or where it is going. I don't care what anyone says and I have a disdane for flippers and love to see them bight the dust.
I don't think "the market", if one does exist, is at any real risk because, trust me, there are tons of money on the sidelines waiting to come in. This isn't the NASDAQ, it's a fricking HOBBY !!
One needs to stick with PQ coins though.
--the same as before, the toughest lib half eagles.
How much of a fall in price are you going to wait for?
--easy 20-30%. things have a long ways to go. i expect to wait not
just months but years.
--Are you going to wait to jump in until TDN says it's okay?
the coins he collects are not in the same league i am. a VG08 1864P
half eagle just does not compare to a high end MS seated dollar. I
want coins that are actually rare ;-) But yes, i would probably take
his advice if he said things are bottoming out.
Will you continue to buy coins in your area(s) of interest regardless of market conditions?
--no, i feel things are over priced. i look at the heritage archives and
i do not want to pay double/triple the price for what a coin cost in
2004.
Are you going to sell into the decline?
--No. i sold at the peak basically.. or just after the peak. I have very
few coins left to sell.
But, I see today some record prices being paid in some areas- as David Hall has pointed out in the weekly video.
In auction next week, a record will be paid for a 31-S Buf in MS 67( already close to 50,000 with juice), and an 1885 Lib nickel in MS66.
Hard to find early bust, if pq for grade, are still going up. And seated quarters and halves seem to have just found their new higher levels.
I don't see a big decline in these areas, but there may be fewer buyers paying moon money.
-Randy Newman
<< <i>My plan is to continue my practice of buying high and selling low, while failing to cross over coins and continuing to add to my core bodybag collection.
I did not realize that you were on the RYK plan.
I'll be trying to pick up some WQs...1935D and 36D in MS when the prices come in a bit.
<< <i>"Now that the coin market is officially in decline..." I missed the memo, when did that start? I thought we were still in the "bifurcated market" era...
Ditto here; I also missed the press release.
<< <i>I don't know who or what TDN is. Should I? >>
tradedollarnut
<< <i>My plan is to continue my practice of buying high and selling low, while failing to cross over coins and continuing to add to my core bodybag collection.
My plan is similar, only I buy high but I don't sell. I simply get buried. I'm at least 5 feet under. Won't be long before I find myself buried under further than the dead.
<< <i>I don't know who or what TDN is. Should I?
I'll be trying to pick up some WQs...1935D and 36D in MS when the prices come in a bit. >>
It means Terribly Dumb Nitwit.
RYK is trying to sucker-punch you guys because he sold out! He wants his stuff back BAD and DW is punishing him.
<< <i>The market as a whole is a 10-year leading indicator for Shield 5c. >>
Look at the bright side - their metal content is almost 10 cents!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
When will the sea of red hit the pcgs price guide?
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't know who or what TDN is. Should I? >>
tradedollarnut >>
Is that any relation to Dunkin Dough Nut?
<< <i>When will the sea of red hit the pcgs price guide? >>
tis starting with many gold coins, moderns, and commems. next comes ???
But I wouldn't intentionally collect anything that is so common that I could be confident of finding another one later, at any price.
In other words, the market cycle doesn't affect my collecting.
It would, however, have a big impact on how I would choose to invest in coins. If I were an investor.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
<< <i>When will the sea of red hit the pcgs price guide? >>
tis starting with many gold coins, moderns, and commems. next comes ??? >>
You must be looking at moderns from a different era.
There's more green than red for the circulation issues.
These have been a little weak recently though according to the price guide.
you guys are watching the screen too close.....relax.
Cheers,
Bob
Vietnam Vet 1968-1969
Classic rarities again sell for record prices at Heritage FUN Auction
Who is John Galt?
<< <i>We are four months away from this headline:
Classic rarities again sell for record prices at Heritage FUN Auction
>>
I guess that means you'll be bidding.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I guess that means you'll be bidding. >>
I'll be a better buyer than seller.
Who is John Galt?
I don't see it that way. It's more like riding out the wait for many coins to settle back to their realistic values. Values that are not driven by speculators and/or registry points. And quarantees since they don't protect anyone in a changing market from drastic price declines.
That's right! There are many folks out there learning the hard truth about the true value of a coin in relation to it's qualities. The horror one must feel when a knowledgeable collector looks over a hastily thrown together top rated registry set and only shows interest is a coin or two........maybe. lol
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>If I was confident that I could buy a coin for less later, I'd wait.
But I wouldn't intentionally collect anything that is so common that I could be confident of finding another one later, at any price.
In other words, the market cycle doesn't affect my collecting.
It would, however, have a big impact on how I would choose to invest in coins. If I were an investor. >>
PHEW!!! I'm glad somebody here is offering me hope!
This is all based on the bigger commodities sector. Since I believe gold is only taking a breather it's only a matter of when in 2009 that gold takes rare coins back upwards. If what we experienced at 2008 ANA was a market blow out "peak," it was the calmest and most underplayed coin market top I've ever seen. There was none of the market top psychology as witnessed in early 1980 or summer 1989/Spring 1990. Maybe a flight to quality is continuing to tighten up things, but I don't think I've seen the usual "rip-roaring end-of-the market blowout" yet.
roadrunner
Separating the rich from the poor. That's the ticket ! Next thing you know there will be a precious metal forum.
BTW, I see a very strong market in nice coins.
<< <i>I'm going to corner the market on Kennedy Looks At Lincoln pennies.
-Randy Newman
Perhaps they are extending their schedule too far in advance of Long Beach. Also, consignors (usually dealers) need to set their reserves lower.
Watch what the Naftzger/Rouse coins do!