how long before we can actually buy near spot?
jamakin
Posts: 1,055
Seeing how fast the price fell on PMs one can understand that the disconnect between spot price and real world price is so large.
How long before an equilibrium is re established?
Most big online dealers are caught in the harsh situation of being stuck with inventory that was purchased much higher that current spot , so I think it will be some time before those prices fall in line.
Stricktly ooking at Ebay silver auctions ,IMO the closest to a free market prices , shows that generic bars 10oz or more seem to have adjusted the quickest to new lows , while the 1 ounce regulars(ASE , MAPLE LEAF ) stay high much longer.
How long before an equilibrium is re established?
Most big online dealers are caught in the harsh situation of being stuck with inventory that was purchased much higher that current spot , so I think it will be some time before those prices fall in line.
Stricktly ooking at Ebay silver auctions ,IMO the closest to a free market prices , shows that generic bars 10oz or more seem to have adjusted the quickest to new lows , while the 1 ounce regulars(ASE , MAPLE LEAF ) stay high much longer.
0
Comments
There should be some nice deals shortly when folks who bought Gold near $1,000 and used the 25% off MS Live start unloading all at once..
I called to place a small order for 500 oz's silver bars in any form. All of the smaller market makers i called suspended sales for lack of available product and not because they do not want to sell at lower levels either, a genuine shortage of product and a big demand.
I am told JM/Engles are probably 6-8 weeks out on delivery and other generic types 2-3 weeks, maybe..
No one will commit exact delivery time and they are all taking orders.
Oddly enough for a market that is getting the crap kicked out of it and since the downturn from 14-16 range on silver there are few if any physical sellers in any real numbers and a far larger amounts of buyers.
Prices crashing, everyone buying physicals and hardly any physical sellers on the ground level (Shops and such..), big delay in product delivery and many brokers/dealers not even taking orders for physical silver now. Makes sense, huh?
A good friend of mine told me we will blatantly see the real manipulation of the commodities markets when you see a huge disconnect between the virtual and pyhsical prices and sales..
Perhaps that is what we are seeing?
Regards to all!
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
<< <i>Dealers aren't 'stuck' w/silver. We can't find any today. There's no quantity to be had. Delivery times are now in weeks with some suppliers not even taking orders. >>
this means to me you want premium shapes and sizes at the new low spot price.
you can easily call a national refiner/minter and get plenty of santa claus rounds right now....
but heh, hard to put a 3-5 dollar premium on those eh?
no one wants a 1000 ounce bar eh?
there is plenty of silver to buy. just do not be picky how it comes to you...
if you want ASEs be prepared to get screwed. if you want engelhard 1 oz bars
prepare to be screwed.
90% silver would probably be the best way to go at the moment for local buys.
Of course they were still in mint wrapping and never opened, so maybe that had something to do with it.
I am satisfied with $15. per ounce when they were bought at $6 in 1988
Of course should have sold at 18, 19, 0r 20 recently
<< <i>
<< <i>there is plenty of silver to buy. just do not be picky how it comes to you... >>
Unfortunately you are wrong FC. How about those Santa Clause rounds, make that call and find out how many you can get.
In fact, for giggles, make some calls and find out what is available now in any form that does not need to be refiined over 1000 oz's. Hell even unrefined stuff, find a large lot and get back to me here.. heh
Not happening
Only thinh happening now is
Small investors digging around can find little lots, ebay sellers have in their limited inventory, or left overs from local dealers..
Where is all the silver? Should be lots of it available and cheap!!
Fwiw, My experience comes from talking with dealers/brokers/refiners of all sizes on a daily basis, I/m not assuming or making stuff up, just relaying the facts as they are today....
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
<< <i>
There should be some nice deals shortly when folks who bought Gold near $1,000 and used the 25% off MS Live start unloading all at once.. >>
yeah like me!...but why would you sell it, really..... if it is near spot anyway with no more than $100 or so before the basement?
honest, though.....i am going to bury it in the sand and then pretend to find it and post over at the metal detecting forum!....
<< <i>
<< <i>there is plenty of silver to buy. just do not be picky how it comes to you... >>
Unfortunately you are wrong FC. How about those Santa Clause rounds, make that call and find out how many you can get.
In fact, for giggles, make some calls and find out what is available now in any form that does not need to be refiined over 1000 oz's. Hell even unrefined stuff, find a large lot and get back to me here.. heh
Not happening
Only thinh happening now is
Small investors digging around can find little lots, ebay sellers have in their limited inventory, or left overs from local dealers..
Where is all the silver? Should be lots of it available and cheap!!
Fwiw, My experience comes from talking with dealers/brokers/refiners of all sizes on a daily basis, I/m not assuming or making stuff up, just relaying the facts as they are today.... >>
i posted a thread that is about two weeks old and i named names
in it. what refiners, minters and etc...
just who are you calling?
and
In the physical markets, even now in the face of big drops, we have far more buyers than sellers which has been the case now for the last few years.
With so few sellers and available physical supply, where is all the silver?
Also, when is the last time you know of anyone that took delivery on a 1000 oz comex bar? Did you know they do not have to send you the bar too, they can honor the contract in cash at their discretion.
I am betting there is FAR more virtual contracts that claim to own/backed by silver than there is physical silver in all the vaults.
Thats just my opinion though, could be other reasons or a combination of factors. I am also betting that if anything illegal is happening it is possible that things that are happening could make the doings of the Hunt Brothers look like child's play .
No one seems to know. There is lots of speculation on the "why's" of this virtual vs physical enigma.. For now it is a big mystery for even those who study this stuff..
Regards to all
pS. I think 9.50-9.80 Range is bottom. Lets see..
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
Bull Sht
Some are: two local dealers here are sitting with several 10 oz bars and tons of silver eagles, but offering them at 18-20 oz , theyll keep sitting. Both are weak ,and will cave before this is over.
<< <i>Dealers arent stuck with PM's
Bull Sht
Some are: two local dealers here are sitting with several 10 oz bars and tons of silver eagles, but offering them at 18-20 oz , theyll keep sitting. Both are weak ,and will cave before this is over. >>
Is that metric tons of ase's?
Several 10 oz bars huh...
Well nuff said on that, there is where all the silver went, we done with this mystery....
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
The Hunts didn't do anything illegal, even though they were treated as if they had. The CFTC did change the rules on margin accounts after the Hunts had staked out their position, however. There was an excellent thread that summarized the Hunt debacle, but I didn't subscribe to it. I'm sure that you could find it if you looked.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dealers arent stuck with PM's
Bull Sht
Some are: two local dealers here are sitting with several 10 oz bars and tons of silver eagles, but offering them at 18-20 oz , theyll keep sitting. Both are weak ,and will cave before this is over. >>
Is that metric tons of ase's?
Several 10 oz bars huh...
Well nuff said on that, there is where all the silver went, we done with this mystery....
i am not sure why you say there is a mystery.
1. people who bought at 15+ are hesitating to sell.
2. refiners and etc... are backorderd for quality investment bars
3. you can get silver but not in the normal shapes and sizes most
"investors" want. (if i have to call i will, but last time i was on hold
for 30 minutes easy to talk to these sales people on what was available during my working hours.. when i do not have time). Silvertown, Sunshine, Northwest, Ohio Precious metals, etc...
4. It seems the usual sources have metal for sale but you cannot
easily flip it because they have marked it up nicely. APMEX, Tulving, ebay, teletrade, etc...
so that leaves many flippers in the situation of placing an order
and having to wait.. and during that time at the mercy of the market
which many will not do. manufacturers who use it though do not mind
waiting as they know how long their current supply will last and
act accordingly...
it is the people wanting to make easy money that are having the
hard time... and rightly so! those with the metal and can aquire it
at the right price get all the PIE.
<< <i>pS. I think 9.50-9.80 Range is bottom. Lets see.. >>
I think the number is higher than that. We are near it now, in my opinion. I am by no means an expert on PM's, but feel I know enough about markets in general to be dangerous.
Something that I think gets lost in all of this is that the silver spot price is based on future delivery, not immediate delivery. So, the prices you see, like on CNBC, Kitco, or whatever, the $10.68 price, is for delivery in December. While this is also true when the markets are unusually high, it makes sense in those cases that enough sellers would be available to give dealers ample inventory to sell to buyers.
One of the key reasons silver seems likely to quickly rebound is because of what many hear have stated, "I can't find physical silver anywhere." Basic economic priciples suggest that if there are more buyers than product available, prices must adjust. Just out of curiousity, I called a dealer that I really trust who, in addition to selling rare coins, also buys and sells PM. I asked him about his take on precious metals. He told me he was out of 100oz bars, Canadian Gold Maple Leafs, and gold Pandas. Basically all he had left to sell was a bag of 40%, a couple of bags of 90%, and a handful 2008 gold eagles. He told me that everybody is out, so he can't even take orders, and the dealer boards are full of messages from dealers looking to buy silver at large premiums over spot. Retail customers looking to buy outnumber retail customers looking to sell 20 to 1. He said it is almost the complete opposite of what happened in March when sellers outnumbered buyers.
Now I realize one PM dealer is as small of a sample-size as you can get, but I have to image many dealers are experiencing something similar. My personal belief is that strong precious metals prices are here to stay, and anybody with any kind of wealth whatsoever should protect that wealth, at least partially, with gold and silver in some form.
I know the people on this board are smart and will judge for themselves which of the various inventment opportunities available are right for them. Even so, let me state that I could be completely wrong with my above statements, but I believe it.
If you want my opinion FC and I don' want to sound elitist (But probably will), You spent a half hour on hold and then went back to work?
I spend several hours a day on the phone doing this to pay the rent and take a vacation once in while, watching dealer networks and market makers for the last 25+ years, almost every day, and you spent 1/2 on the phone and you do what every day for a living?
What? I made all that up?
Yes, please, If you want to prove me wrong, call OPM and ask them how much over and how long for delivery on 5 to 10 -100 oz bars then reply back to this message tomorrow.
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
<< <i>Wow Fc, you talk as if you are quite the expert.
If you want my opinion FC and I don' want to sound elitist (But probably will), You spent a half hour on hold and then went back to work?
I spend several hours a day on the phone doing this to pay the rent and take a vacation once in while, watching dealer networks and market makers for the last 25+ years, almost every day, and you spent 1/2 on the phone and you do what every day for a living?
What? I made all that up?
Yes, please, If you want to prove me wrong, call OPM and ask them how much over and how long for delivery on 5 to 10 -100 oz bars then reply back to this message tomorrow. >>
did you not read my post? you want the bars that are in demand
right now. you will not get them to Oct-Nov at spot + a reasonable
markup.
but if you want silver in any shape or form it is available. how about
war time nickels perhaps? a 1000 ounce bar for 11000+?
heck, i am visiting common bullion sites right this minute and they
have silver for sale in alternative forms.
the trouble is you want to make money flipping it... you want it in
the most desireable shapes/forms...
obviously you will have a problem getting that cheap enough to
make a profit.
do not make this out to be rocket science. anyone can make these
calls and ask. yes it changes daily what they have.
no i am not saying you are wrong.. it just appears my experience
differs from you.
http://tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver shows 1000 ounce bars
available right now. immediate shipping with bank wired funds.
59 cents over spot.
maybe people need to learn how to melt the silver and pour their
own bars.
actually i spent several hours reading about that just last week.
pretty darn interesting!
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
<< <i>Wow Fc, you talk as if you are quite the expert.
If you want my opinion FC and I don' want to sound elitist (But probably will), You spent a half hour on hold and then went back to work?
I spend several hours a day on the phone doing this to pay the rent and take a vacation once in while, watching dealer networks and market makers for the last 25+ years, almost every day, and you spent 1/2 on the phone and you do what every day for a living?
What? I made all that up?
Yes, please, If you want to prove me wrong, call OPM and ask them how much over and how long for delivery on 5 to 10 -100 oz bars then reply back to this message tomorrow. >>
Brian, isn't it true that many dealers are paying well over silver spot prices for Silver Eagles. You say you are on the dealer boards often. What are the buying/selling spreads for Silver Eagles. Maybe revealing that information will help us get a better grasp of where the market really is.
P.S. You are both gentleman.
<< <i>No sweat and no biggie... Was not trying to be mean. Have a great evening. >>
Brian, obviously you have more experience then i. i also think i have
learned in a short time exactly what you are going through right now.
it just bothers me when people say silver is not available, there is
a shortage, or what not when it is blatantly wrong.
i value your input and look forward to more debate!
For the average Joe, this is a good place to get indications of what you should pay as long as you keep in mind the extra fee's/minimum orders/shipping fees/avalibility etc..
I like Amark because they are a well respected very large supplier of metals and I believe they buy Eagles directly from the U.S. Mint.
I suspect they are running big delays for silver too..
I tell my customers to look there here (below) then call me..
http://www.amark.com/
PS. Here are terms.. Not cheap when you add them up..
http://www.amark.com/how.asp
and Commisions above and beyond posted prices
f your purchase is:
Over $50,000
$25,001 - $50,000
$15,001 - $25,000
$1,000 - $15,000
Then A-Mark's commission is:
0.25% (1/4%) of transaction value
0.5% (1/2%) of the transaction value
1.0% of the transaction value
2.0% of the transaction value (minimum $50 commission per transaction)
Stil way better than Kitco by a long shot and better then many other retail sites..
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
<< <i>TimCoin, here is a good retail site with legit selling prices. Prices are selling numbers and do not include small fees/shipping etc. I also understand the minimum you can order is 5000 oz's of silver and 100 oz's of gold (Double check me).
For the average Joe, this is a good place to get indications of what you should pay as long as you keep in mind the extra fee's/minimum orders/shipping fees/avalibility etc..
I like Amark because they are a well respected very large supplier of metals and I believe they buy Eagles directly from the U.S. Mint.
I suspect they are running big delays for silver too..
I tell my customers to look there here (below) then call me..
http://www.amark.com/ >>
Thanks!
But what I'm looking for are dealer buy/sell spreads. So, if a dealer is selling Silver Eagles for $3 over spot, for how much is that same dealer buying Silver Eagles? The same question for JM Bars. Does that make sense?
Refiners are slowed up considerably and even at the height of this metals mkt, more silver was being sold then taken in (silver, not gold)
Far more gold being refined than silver, you would think it would be the opposite.
Forget the virtual silver mkt, It is of my opinion, there is far less above ground silver available then most everyone thinks..
Gn and regards to all...
PS
"But what I'm looking for are dealer buy/sell spreads. So, if a dealer is selling Silver Eagles for $3 over spot, for how much is that same dealer buying Silver Eagles? The same question for JM Bars. Does that make sense?"
Depends on the dealers, quantities and what orders they do or do not have.. Lots of variables.
Call me tommorow and I will try and explain..
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
I am so thankful I have a way to read people's thoughts from the world over here on these type of forums.....
Call up those places or better yet post an open message to buy silver at 18.00 an oz and see how much you get offered. Its simple, it out there its just folks are in it strong!!! and refuse to sell at currentl levels!
yesterday for 13.00 and within 30 minutes he had sold it all for 13.50 per ounce..
That's a nice 3500.00 dollars profit in half an hour....
<< <i> Its simple, it out there its just folks are in it strong!!! and refuse to sell at currentl levels! >>
This is EXACTLY what I am finding locally....when the holders are willing to say it out loud.
edited because of those typos!
<< <i>Okay,
Call up those places or better yet post an open message to buy silver at 18.00 an oz and see how much you get offered. Its simple, it out there its just folks are in it strong!!! and refuse to sell at currentl levels! >>
Which is why it is likely to go back up. Investors are not willing to sell at this level, so if buyer really want to buy, they are going to have to up their buy price. At least, that is the way I am looking at this.
<< <i>
<< <i>Okay,
Call up those places or better yet post an open message to buy silver at 18.00 an oz and see how much you get offered. Its simple, it out there its just folks are in it strong!!! and refuse to sell at currentl levels! >>
Which is why it is likely to go back up. Investors are not willing to sell at this level, so if buyer really want to buy, they are going to have to up their buy price. At least, that is the way I am looking at this. >>
Investors not willing to sell will drive the price of silver up? What kind of logic is that?
Create demand at inflated price levels? Ever think that maybe no one is interested
at 15/oz. Silver closed at $10.82 today because there was overwhelming SELLING
not buying. Sheesh.
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
"Silver closed at $10.82 today because there was overwhelming SELLING
not buying. Sheesh."
Paper silver...... oh, and for every sale there has to be a buyer. But not necessarily in this upside down contrivance we now find ourselves in.
<Silver closed at $10.82 today because there was overwhelming SELLING....>
Most of the selling was paper. Buying under $12 is still a tough find.
at 15/oz. Silver closed at $10.82 today because there was overwhelming SELLING
not buying. Sheesh.
......................
One Cent that is exactly what i meant when I started this thread.
All this silver is being dumped dropping the spot price but there is no glut of real silver to be had yet.
What is the lagtime for all this dumped silver to hit the physical market or will it ever surface?
There is a real disconnect between spot price and the price of marketible silver , on the way up the price seems to stay closer spot, on the way down their is a much larger premium to get your hands on the real thing.
Is it that the dumped silver is not readily marketible or that all that paper silver was just smoke and mirrors all along?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Okay,
Call up those places or better yet post an open message to buy silver at 18.00 an oz and see how much you get offered. Its simple, it out there its just folks are in it strong!!! and refuse to sell at currentl levels! >>
Which is why it is likely to go back up. Investors are not willing to sell at this level, so if buyer really want to buy, they are going to have to up their buy price. At least, that is the way I am looking at this. >>
Investors not willing to sell will drive the price of silver up? What kind of logic is that?
Create demand at inflated price levels? Ever think that maybe no one is interested
at 15/oz. Silver closed at $10.82 today because there was overwhelming SELLING
not buying. Sheesh. >>
To answer your question, yes, a lack of sellers will drive the prices up. The logic is the basic economic priciple of Price Elasticity of Supply. The formula is (% Change in Quantity Supplied)/(% Change in Price). Generally speaking, as price goes down, the available supply will decrease until an equilibrium price is reached. There is an inverse relationship, normally, with items having varying degrees of elasticity.
Your second statement is not entirely correct. Silver closed today at $10.82 because sellers were willing to sell at that price for settlement in December.
That depends. Are you willing to sell below spot, so that the dealer can resell it at spot and make some money for his troubles?
TD
I just watched an ebayer pay $1,525.00 plus s/h for an
kilo-32.15 oz bar just 10 minutes ago. Now it may have been collectable
it was marked: Heraeus- Feinsilber, I'm guessing of German origin.
BUT $ one thousand twenty five Dollars, or $47.43 per oz........... Ya got-a want it bad!
<< <i>Spot Nothing!
I just watched an ebayer pay $1,525.00 plus s/h for an
kilo-32.15 oz bar just 10 minutes ago. Now it may have been collectable
it was marked: Heraeus- Feinsilber, I'm guessing of German origin.
BUT $ one thousand twenty five Dollars, or $47.43 per oz........... Ya got-a want it bad! >>
////////////////////////////////////
Highly Collectable
It appears by the article the bar was minted ca 1976+
The article doen't seem to specify when the co. started
producing kilo bars for revenue generation, just the mention that
the precious metals division seperated in 76 and expanding.
I did not know that a bar was on par with coin collecting except maybe
the older U.S. mint bars when you can find them, but they are pricey as well.
Nice reading BTW Fellas, I know here in Kansas City every dealer I call says "nope, dont have any"...............
There has been a shortage of silver for quite a few years now,The shortage is an ongoing problem and one of the reasons that companies that use silver in manufacturing spent allot of time lobbying to prevent Silver ETF's. They knew there is a shortage of above ground supply and the potential problem with investors jumping in the game taking more off the mkt...... And here we are…
This is not a new phenomenon.. Just exaggerated now.
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
You don't take delivery of silver in the SLV Exchange Traded Funds.
Why not just enter the Futures Market?
<< <i>Spot Nothing!
I just watched an ebayer pay $1,525.00 plus s/h for an
kilo-32.15 oz bar just 10 minutes ago. Now it may have been collectable
it was marked: Heraeus- Feinsilber, I'm guessing of German origin.
BUT $ one thousand twenty five Dollars, or $47.43 per oz........... Ya got-a want it bad! >>
I wonder if the buyer thought he was getting a 100 oz. bar.
Americans are woefully ignorant of the metric system.
TD
intersting story..
mine production down
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
<< <i>
Americans are woefully ignorant of the metric system.
TD >>
I wish I had a shilling for every time I've heard that...
<< <i>I sold silver at $13.50 late yesterday. >>
Thats trippy, I bought Silver at the same price Late Yesterday...........
<< <i>Ever think that maybe no one is interested
at 15/oz. Silver closed at $10.82 today because there was overwhelming SELLING
not buying. Sheesh.
......................
One Cent that is exactly what i meant when I started this thread.
All this silver is being dumped dropping the spot price but there is no glut of real silver to be had yet.
What is the lagtime for all this dumped silver to hit the physical market or will it ever surface?
There is a real disconnect between spot price and the price of marketible silver , on the way up the price seems to stay closer spot, on the way down their is a much larger premium to get your hands on the real thing.
Is it that the dumped silver is not readily marketible or that all that paper silver was just smoke and mirrors all along? >>
I think that the paper aspect of the silver market is real. To what extent I cannot comment as I am not
that intimately involved. I know that the metal guys here will tell you that the paper component
of the market is significant. Even if we assume that it is a bifurcated market and the paper is the major influence, it
cuts both ways. If silver has crashed do to hedge funds, banks, etc. getting out of the paper it is those same
entities and paper that drove the market to $20/oz. Said another way, the physical metal got the bump from the
paper and now the metal is getting hit because of the paper dump. At some point the market will come back into
equilibrium. Is it at 10.82, 8.82 or 15.82 only time will tell. In my opinion, silver will not take the long ride-up on the
back of paper anytime soon. So those that invested in physical silver at $16, $17, $18 will either hold or fold depending
on their own personal financial needs/situation.
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111