Thursday at Long Beach

Elcontador

I arrived at 10:00 when it opened and left at 1:00 PM. Never spent so little time at a Long Beach show before, but even though I looked at all of SIX coins, I found my trip there to be most informative.

There was lots of high grade Seated material available, except for halves. High grade Barber dimes, quarters and halves were readily available. Lots of Liberty Nickels in 4 and 5, but very few in higher grades were on the bourse. Of the 3 Liberty Nickels I saw, one had a planchet flaw, another was not quite there for me, and I put up a bid on the other one. Everyone seemed to be selling Commems. More foreign coin and currency displays were at Long Beach than I've ever seen before. There was a plethora of gold, Morgans and Peace $s, Franklins and Kennedys, etc., etc. 20th Century coinage in general was well represented.

Justin Gomes had an interesting display of Unc. Two Cent Pieces, and Dick Osburn had a very good display of 19th Century type in general. As usual, Don Rinkor had a nice display of Unc. Seated and Trade $s. I am seeing more CAC green stickered coins. The more expensive dealers seemed to have a greater percentage of their coins stickered. I did not see any CAC gold stickered coins.

The most interesting coin I saw was a 1798 Heraldic Eagle Bust $ in NGC 58. The coin appeared to be unmolested, the surfaces were nice, and the coin was priced accordingly, so I passed. I was hoping to find a 50 or 53, and while some of them were available, they all appeared to be scrubbed and slabbed, so I didn't pursue them. I also saw an 1808 Classic Large Cent in a PC 4 holder, but that one didn't have my name on it, either.

I saw Tom Killian and a guy I used to run with about 15 years ago whose nickname I remember, but his actual name escapes me.

Retail traffic was slow and I think more than ever, this show was about dealers checking out other dealer's stuff to fill wantlists and to try to cross coins and / or get upgrades (re the crossing and upgrading, I don't know why they bother, but that's their problem, not mine).

A major impression I got of this show is that there is very much a two tiered market now. If you want to sell something to a dealer, either the coin is top drawer for the grade and / or he can flip it immediately, or you're going to have a hard time selling it. If you buy coins which are so-so or low end for the grade, whatever you pay for them, you are going to be buried in these coins unless you can unload them to some pendejo / naco on e-bay.

For reasons I mentioned in the preceding paragraph, I would personally not buy anything now unless it is high end for the grade. The problem you are going to encounter is that the seller of such coin(s) knows when a coin is on the high end for the grade. You are either going to pay a steep premium for the coin, or you aren't going to buy it. Ie, the Bust $ I mentioned above in AU 58 was priced more than 2X what one in AU 53 would bring.

Lastly, if you live in the Los Angeles area and can do it, take the Metrorail. The Transit Mall station is at most a five minute walk from the entrance to the Coin Show at the Convention Center.

tjkillian

It was great seeing you at the show. I guess you were not sucessful in finding anything either.

Bear

Excellent report. Thus the problem of the two tiered market

exacerbates ,with dealers not buying lower tier coins. It is just

possible that a blow off of top tier is coming. It is not a healthy

sign ,at all when the market for the average Joe and Jane dries

up.

RYK

Excellent report, Jeff. Thanks.

291fifth

Very insightful report. Thanks!

Elcontador

There must be a mistake. It appears that I won the Heritage lot on which I bid (at my max bid). It is my first stickered coin, and I probably paid an add'l 8-10% for it (it's a nice coin, though, I saw it in person).

Note to whomever wants to read this. The market for high grade Liberty Nickels is flat, especially for NGC material, but all bets are off re the 12 D and 12 S.

Tom, it was great seeing you as well. Didn't see any other forum members though. Rumors are that Mark Feld was there, but I didn't see him.

adamlaneus

Thanks for the show floor report! ...from the folks who cannot attend...

roadrunner

This 2 tiered market sounds like what happened in 1981-1982 after the market crashed. Dealers wanted a lot more coin for a MS65 sheet price - essentially it had to be superb (ie a 66 to 67). Average MS65 material at that time sold for discounts just like that stuff is today.
So good advice to ensure you buy high end. This is Monsterman's philosophy. You'll always keep that grade and even might luck out for an upgrade. But lower end or average coins may even fall a grade in buyer's perceptions as this market gets tight. The crazy prices being paid today for gem bust and seated type are for PQ's and shot coins that give the buyer some more leverage.

roadrunner

Bear

It is indeed strange, when a MS-65 grade in other then bust or earlier material

is starting to be considered low end. Better batten down the hatches, there may

be a storm brewing here mates. If it is a cash freeze up, remember, these things

are a normal cycle and in time will pass. No need to panic. However , nervous break

downs are allowed.

291fifth

<< <i>This 2 tiered market sounds like what happened in 1981-1982 after the market crashed. Dealers wanted a lot more coin for a MS65 sheet price - essentially it had to be superb (ie a 66 to 67). Average MS65 material at that time sold for discounts just like that stuff is today.
So good advice to ensure you buy high end. This is Monsterman's philosophy. You'll always keep that grade and even might luck out for an upgrade. But lower end or average coins may even fall a grade in buyer's perceptions as this market gets tight. The crazy prices being paid today for gem bust and seated type are for PQ's and shot coins that give the buyer some more leverage.

roadrunner >>



I hope it doesn't get as bad as 1982. That was the worst coin market year since the mid-1960's. By late in the year of 1982 business had virtually stopped. I recall going to the November Michigan State Numismatic Society show and not being able to buy, sell, or trade. The market was just plain dead.

LeeG

Great report. Thanks for telling your tale!!

ricko

Thanks for the excellent report.. Cheers, RickO

Bear

roadrunner

hope it doesn't get as bad as 1982. That was the worst coin market year since the mid-1960's. By late in the year of 1982 business had virtually stopped. I recall going to the November Michigan State Numismatic Society show and not being able to buy, sell, or trade. The market was just plain dead.

A dead market is the best opportunity to load up on available bargains. At the 1982 ANA auction (Heritage) there were some great seated and bust coins hitting the market (Gene Edward's coins for example). They sold for a proverbial song at the bottom of the market. If you had the cash, you could have scooped up enough to run your wallet empty. Problem is, most didn't have the money. I know I didn't as many great seated coins hit the market from 1982-1983. I bought my share but not at the bottom. The one great coin I bought in 1982 I got into a bidding war on and paid through the nose on (ie. a 1986 price).

roadrunner

Bear

While this is true in theory, most folks seem to be short of money just

as the best opportunities arise, This taken with the inability to sell lower

tier coins to raise cash always poses a problem. Finally, when a market goes

really soft, then the truly great coins go into hiding ,until normalcy again returns

to the coin market.

Bear

When I go to the show on Saterday, it will be to sell a few items

and pay for the lots won at Goldbergs and Heritage. I do not

expect to make any more purchases for the rest of the year. However,

I guess that promises are made to be broken.



How were the Morgan dollars doing on the Bourse?

MS-65,66 and DMPL?

Coxe

I have found Thursdays to be a bit dead on retail in the past. I think it will be especially dead this weekend, compared to previous recent ones. The price of fueling a round trip in the car will leave a lot of the casual retail public outside a 30 mile radius at home probably.

Agree on Liberty nickels. I'm doing a PCGS MS66 date set myself.

Never saw a gold sticker either. Sent a few that I was sure were excellent candidates with no luck too.

I'll see how it is tomorrow. They have been weird there the past three or four shows.

mike92694

<< <i>I have found Thursdays to be a bit dead on retail in the past. I think it will be especially dead this weekend, compared to previous recent ones. The price of fueling a round trip in the car will leave a lot of the casual retail public outside a 30 mile radius at home probably.
>>



Yes. I live 32.67 miles away from the Long Beach convention center.

For some reason, I always like to go to the Bubba Gump Shrimp Restaurant ...

etexmike

Thanks for taking the time to post.

I always enjoy reading the show reports, good or bad, as the case may be.


Mike

mozin

Thanks for the report.

percyb

Thanks for the report. The other board noted low attendance as well.