My Gut Tells Me That Coin Prices Have Peaked...
OneCent
Posts: 3,561 ✭
Should my gut be more focused on pizza pies?
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
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And Beer too, can't forget the Beer
Lincoln set Colorless Set
yes, individual coins will spike, PMs may carry some higher, but the
core collectable coins most average folks can afford have peaked in
my mind.
take early wheats for example. can they really go much higher even
with this anniversary date coming? scary.
how about fractional gold? that is a lot of money for such small coins
that tradionally have done poorly due to size. hmm?
things like that. common morgans in 65-66 can keep going up? i don't
think so.
but exceptions are out there. keys may be one of them. people always
want to finish their sets.
<< <i>Should my gut be more focused on pizza pies?
Last time I checked, eBay is still pumping 'em out!!!!!!!....and, for top prices I will add!!!
Added to say, I just did a search for "PCGS" on eBay....got 13,261 items found.
"Coins" ........48,344 items
"NGC" ........12,777 itmes
Not bad IMHO
<< <i>my gut also told me that coins prices have peaked.
yes, individual coins will spike, PMs may carry some higher, but the
core collectable coins most average folks can afford have peaked in
my mind.
take early wheats for example. can they really go much higher even
with this anniversary date coming? scary.
how about fractional gold? that is a lot of money for such small coins
that tradionally have done poorly due to size. hmm?
things like that. common morgans in 65-66 can keep going up? i don't
think so.
but exceptions are out there. keys may be one of them. people always
want to finish their sets. >>
Judging from coin market trends of the past, there is still a ton of room for prices to keep going up. Most current prices (for $100-$10000 material) aren't even close to 50% of what they were in 1989-90.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
Maybe it's just gas
<< <i>
<< <i>my gut also told me that coins prices have peaked.
yes, individual coins will spike, PMs may carry some higher, but the
core collectable coins most average folks can afford have peaked in
my mind.
take early wheats for example. can they really go much higher even
with this anniversary date coming? scary.
how about fractional gold? that is a lot of money for such small coins
that tradionally have done poorly due to size. hmm?
things like that. common morgans in 65-66 can keep going up? i don't
think so.
but exceptions are out there. keys may be one of them. people always
want to finish their sets. >>
Judging from coin market trends of the past, there is still a ton of room for prices to keep going up. Most current prices (for $100-$10000 material) aren't even close to 50% of what they were in 1989-90. >>
I do not think that is a great way to look at the market. What has gone
on in the past is not a fool proof indicator on how things will play out now.
I like to think that collectors today have a lot more access to information then
they did back then. I think that 89-90 really had an endless line
of suckers to put it bluntly. That being the core reason for the sky
high prices and subsequent crash. Many collectibles never get back
to their glory days for the majority of material. Baseball cards, comic
books, etc.. are great examples. Most languish and coin collecting
has sectors that could be described like that. I think for prices to
double for most material would be truly shocking and unexplainable
except for irrational exurberance and a never ending line of suckers
fresh to the hobby.
I could be wrong but what would drive the market to new highs once
again for the majority of material except massive amounts of fresh
blood with wads to blow and a lack of knowledge?
<< <i>Yes it should.
And Beer too, can't forget the Beer
Yes, plenty of
The coin trend is parabolic, everyone knows what parabolic means, right?
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
That's what I thought they are going to keep going up as long as there are buyers.
Same thing for coins.
<< <i>And when Twinkies went to .25 cents-I was confident they had peaked. >>
Have cartons of stinky cigarettes peaked.....last time I saw a carton going for $46.00
The last time I smoked in 1983, I believe I paid ~$1.00/pack
<< <i>You need to start thinking in terms of cheaper dollars.
has people's wages and earnings been going up like the last 5
years? Since the dollar is going down I should be able to ask for a 10%
raise this year?
Or do you mean people from other countries wanting to collect US coins since their money has such great value at this moment? I cannot
see that helping the majority of coins and only the most desirable
that will cater to the very wealthly who play in a different game then
most of us do.
Peak, I think we're 3/4 to the summit of $6 a gallon fuel.
Super $4.58, Mid $4.38, crap $4.17, as of today in New London, CT.
I now spend $75 a week going to work. Can I deduct fuel useage? It's becoming a signifigant expense.
I thought about a mule, but Oats are up 60% from last year .
<< <i>The lack of viable investment alternatives is keeping the pressure on rare coins. I have no idea how long this will last. >>
and just who exactly is promoting the hobby as an investment i might ask? the same ones who were dealers in 89-90 perhaps?
the ones who would smile with glee when they found another patsy
to pass off a coin to for a big profit while only holding it for mere hours
or days?
hmm. POP!
My brain is telling me that coins are not a great investment, and I should not be collecting them if I lose sleep over their valuation. With that in mind, I think I will have me another one...
are we talking local maximum here, or all time peak and from here on out it's down down down?
'cause if it's the latter, I'm going to wait until early US rarities go to zero and then buy them all!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Morgansforever- $75 per week. That is not to bad. Takes $110 to fill my truck for 320 miles (2.5 days) $350 to fill the 955l trackloader for 8 hours and the wife and kid blow thru another 100 between them a week. This is the reduced version, we have cut back at least 50 percent over the last few months and or working on reducing further.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i><<Smoeone please tell me gas prices have peaked>>
Peak, I think we're 3/4 to the summit of $6 a gallon fuel.
Super $4.58, Mid $4.38, crap $4.17, as of today in New London, CT.
I now spend $75 a week going to work. Can I deduct fuel useage? It's becoming a signifigant expense.
I thought about a mule, but Oats are up 60% from last year .
$3.69 at my gas station in Houston.
Last years prices for me. The good ol days of $3.69 a gallon gas.
Lets hope there is a slow down in the increases.
Brothers, what makes the difference if prices have peaked or not? It's a hobby. Collect the highest quality you can afford and just relax and enjoy yourselves.
By the way, morgansforever, I paid $4.17 for the cheap stuff in Mystic, CT on Sunday.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
hurry, fill in the blank before this thread goes POOF.
Once that restraint passes, coin prices will rise again--with Lincolns leading the way.
Consider the current plateau an opportunity to buy--or sell--as your mood and your individual circumstances dictate.
<< <i>Brothers, what makes the difference if prices have peaked or not? It's a hobby. Collect the highest quality you can afford and just relax and enjoy yourselves. >>
this is what i have come to expect in a market that has not corrected in years.
Thank you Curly ... for those of us who consider this a hobby ... and personally I do ... this is a truth that rings true. It certainly has over the 20 years I have collected.
fc this is what i have come to expect in a market that has not corrected in years.
Although I think this comment was intended differently, I am going to thank fc also. If this is not a hobby for you, but some kind of investment vehicle, business, or whatever ... thread carefully. Bulls don't run forever, they never do.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
<< <i>curly Brothers, what makes the difference if prices have peaked or not? It's a hobby. Collect the highest quality you can afford and just relax and enjoy yourselves.
Thank you Curly ... for those of us who consider this a hobby ... and personally I do ... this is a truth that rings true. It certainly has over the 20 years I have collected.
fc this is what i have come to expect in a market that has not corrected in years.
Although I think this comment was intended differently, I am going to thank fc also. If this is not a hobby for you, but some kind of investment vehicle, business, or whatever ... thread carefully. Bulls don't run forever, they never do. >>
For most of us, this is both a hobby and an investment. If you buy expensive coins on a regular basis over many years, you will have a collection of significant value. It's not unreasonable to want that collection to appreciate in value.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>My gut tells me when it's time to
hurry, fill in the blank before this thread goes POOF.
For most of us, this is both a hobby and an investment. If you buy expensive coins on a regular basis over many years, you will have a collection of significant value. It's not unreasonable to want that collection to appreciate in value.
I agree ... and I do have a collection that many would consider of significant value. In fact, if I were to sell it all today, I suspect it would be worth substancially more than I paid for it ... however, I don't think it would have been a really good investment % wise.
And yes, I do want it to continue to grow in value over time ... I would be both a fool and liar if I said otherwise.
But as I have purchased it slowly over the last 20 years, and plan on doing the same over the next 20 ... peaks and dips (and the specimens they make available) only affect how many I can purchase with that years budget. Someday, when I sell it, or donate it, or leave it to my heirs, I hope it is worth much, much more than today.
If not ... well, I think I'll be able to look back and say ... it sure was a fun ride.
I was told some 15-16 years ago one solid piece of advice I have not forgotten ...
only buy what you can afford to keep.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>Brothers, what makes the difference if prices have peaked or not? It's a hobby. Collect the highest quality you can afford and just relax and enjoy yourselves. >>
BongoBongo "hit the nail on the head" when he made the following comment some time ago.
IF YOU BUY WHAT YOU LIKE, AT A PRICE YOU CAN AFFORD AT THE TIME, THEN THINGS WILL BE EASIER
IF YOU BUY WHAT OTHER PEOPLE LIKE, BORROW TO FUND IT AND EXPECT MULTIPLES OF RETURN, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE UNHAPPY
BONGO SAY NEARLY EVERYTHING DEPRECIATES OVER TIME.BONGO WOULD NOT PAY $500 FOR A SILVER BELL THIS XMAS AND EXPECT IT TO BE WORTH $550 NEXT YEAR. BUT BONGO KNOW A SILVER BELL IS NOT OLD COIN.
OR IS IT.
BONGO MAYBE NOT SURPRISED THAT OLD COIN IS LIKE ANY OTHER LIMITED NON ESSENTIAL COMMODITY AND SUBJECT TO THE WHIMS OF TASTE AND MARKET.
PUT THE COIN IN BOOK AND ENJOY IT.
IF IT IS WORTH MORE WHEN YOU COME TO SELL IT, WELL DONE
IF NOT, THEN YOU HAVE HAD ENJOYMENT OUT OF IT.
REMEMBER THAT OLD COIN IS ONLY WORTH FEW DOLLARS IN PHYSICAL MATERIAL VALUE - THIS IS WHY VALUE IS AN ESOTERIC CONCEPT IN MANY WAYS AND IT MAY BE VULGAR TO ASSIGN ANY MONETARY VALUE TO OLD COIN
UNLESS YOU ARE A RUSSIAN OLIGARCH OR CHINESE SHODDY GOODS FACTORY OWNER
With coins, there is no short interest. No one has found a way to make money off of coin prices going lower (or being manipulated lower).
Before you conjur up a "gut feeling" take a long hard look at all the PCGS graphs which carefully chart coin values (prices). Nothing is looking down as far as I can tell.
Go read what QDB writes of coln values during times of financial turmoil, such as the great depression. You will notice there is a degree of immunity within coins which draws those seeking long term stability of assets.
Good luck with the negative posts, It reminds me of the old days of reading the Yahoo finance message boards....where college kids are paid to be stock bashers....and instill negative thoughts and bad attitudes among stockholders.
<< <i>With coins, there is no short interest. No one has found a way to make money off of coin prices going lower (or being manipulted lower). >>
Don't give anyone ideas to "securitize" the coin market like other commodities. The last thing we need is another item to speculate on.
<< <i>
<< <i>With coins, there is no short interest. No one has found a way to make money off of coin prices going lower (or being manipulted lower). >>
Don't give anyone ideas to "securitize" the coin market like other commodities. The last thing we need is another item to speculate on. >>
I think there is a tremendous opportunity for a financial product for the coin market.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Super high priced rarities are hitting new highs as
a last surge before the purge. As for Morgan dollars
averaged washed out specimens are too numerous
to go anywhere but down. True DMPL with deep
unclouded fields will be strong, as will beautiful specimens
with PL fields in MS-64 and 65 state. Type coins in beautiful
condition, original state , circ coins in VF and up with honest
even wear and or crusty surfaces will do well. The key for
coins is QUALITY, QUALITY and QUALITY. Be extremely demanding
in the coins you buy. Even if such coins go down in a coin plunge,
they will go down less, go back up first and will tend to do well in the
next cycle. Assemble the best quality you can afford, buy keys then sit
back and relax. forget the temporary ups and downs of the coin market.
However, now is a very good time to unload all marginal coins, mistakes
and coins you no longer like as well as fugly coins. Take your loss if you
must and raise the cash you need to buy the best of what you like.
Camelot
Yogi Berra
<< <i>Average, so so coins are already on the way down
Super high priced rarities are hitting new highs as
a last surge before the purge. As for Morgan dollars
averaged washed out specimens are too numerous
to go anywhere but down. True DMPL with deep
unclouded fields will be strong, as will beautiful specimens
with PL fields in MS-64 and 65 state. Type coins in beautiful
condition, original state , circ coins in VF and up with honest
even wear and or crusty surfaces will do well. The key for
coins is QUALITY, QUALITY and QUALITY. Be extremely demanding
in the coins you buy. Even if such coins go down in a coin plunge,
they will go down less, go back up first and will tend to do well in the
next cycle. Assemble the best quality you can afford, buy keys then sit
back and relax. forget the temporary ups and downs of the coin market.
However, now is a very good time to unload all marginal coins, mistakes
and coins you no longer like as well as fugly coins. Take your loss if you
must and raise the cash you need to buy the best of what you like. >>
I haven't seen you weigh in on the 07 reverse's as of yet.
1 - The dollar value is dropping. Only 4-5 years ago, I had to pay 9,8 norwegian kroner per US dollar. Now, the exchange rate is only 5 norwegian kroner per US dollar.
---->> Thats a drop by 50%
---->> For me, this means that US collector coins have never been cheaper than they are now. There are lots of bargains out there now.
---->> To keep up with this, the coin values - measured in US Dollars - would have to increase by 100% just to break even. Most coin prices have not increased that much.
2 - The collector market is global, or at least it has global elements. This means that if the dollar value keeps to decrease, foreign collectors will see great bargains, and bid accordingly on auctions.
----->> This could lead to a price increase for coins - measured in US dollars. Even though the price in Euros, Yen, Pounds etc. is actually the same or lower.
3 - As the real estate market and the stock market crashes (yes, it will happen
of which it probably is too late, run away from this one.
It has no where to go but oblivion.
Camelot
<< <i>The '07 reverse is a hype special. Other then a quick flip,
of which it probably is too late, run away from this one.
It has no where to go but oblivion. >>
It just has to find a balance ....
From Wikipedia :
General terms
Balance (ability), an ability to maintain balance (see Equilibrioception ).
Balance (accounting)
Balance (metaphysics), a desirable point between two or more opposite forces.
Balance of stereophonic sound.
Balance beam, a piece of gymnastics apparatus.
Balance board, a piece of training equipment.
Balance disorder, the medical description of disordered balance.
Balance scale, a device to measure the mass of an object.
Balance wheel, a watch component.
Engine balance
Game balance, a concept in game design describing the fairness or balance of power in a game.
Media balance, the amount of political content in the mass media.
Tire balance
Since I collect mostly Moderns, I'd have to agree with this statement--aside from the PM increases. I think the COLLECTABLE value of Moderns has gone down, and I sense three factors involved:
* The speculators have seen most of the easy money go away (the 2008 silver eagle notwithstanding) and have been dumping all the surplus inventory they were responsible for creating.
* The Mint is just producing too many issues, causing interest to crash in most of them. Just look at the trend lines for the First Spouse series. Remarkable, but totally predictable--by many on this board, in fact.
* People ARE stressed by the economy and having to liquidate purchases they may have made only a short time ago.
As a collector, I see only opportunity in all of this. It's a great time to be collecting!
<< <i>I think one thing you are all forgetting, is that in every other financial and investment market.....there is a tangable "short interest" which, though not loved by bulls or longs....is a force which keeps prices somewhat in check.
With coins, there is no short interest. No one has found a way to make money off of coin prices going lower (or being manipulated lower).
Before you conjur up a "gut feeling" take a long hard look at all the PCGS graphs which carefully chart coin values (prices). Nothing is looking down as far as I can tell.
Go read what QDB writes of coln values during times of financial turmoil, such as the great depression. You will notice there is a degree of immunity within coins which draws those seeking long term stability of assets.
Good luck with the negative posts, It reminds me of the old days of reading the Yahoo finance message boards....where college kids are paid to be stock bashers....and instill negative thoughts and bad attitudes among stockholders. >>
Negative posts, thoughts and bad attytoods?
For some, coins heading south is not a negative at all. At all, I say. In fact, I personally would construe it as a BIG positive. Guess it is all about one's perspective and motivations now isn't it?
-Joe Collector
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
roadrunner