<< <i>2. The Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 -- indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted. >>
Lets look at this realistically...Isn't his a little like saying that you expect to be $100 short of making your bills for this paycheck, and then when you find that you're only $90 short go out and put something on your credit card because you got extra money and things are rosy? I'm going to come up with a new system for counting human age where when reaching 50 you start counting backwards...would you guys like to join in the fun - who wouldn't want to claim that they're 30 when they're actually 70? >>
I think both analogies are kinda flawed. Read TDN's post. The markets were braced for, and had probably priced in, a worse number. Thus when a better number appeared, the market priced this new information in, resulting in a rise.
“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.” — Benjamin Franklin
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
Looks like Sinclair has his first entry in his million dollar sweepstakes.....storm888. Well, good luck.
The path of least resistance is DOWN. The shorts are in charge, and they will be for awhile.
It's ironic that we don't even have good news anymore to move the markets. Now we rely on less "bad news" or bad news that is not as bad as expected to drive it....or "bad news" that is so obviously negative that TPTB just call it "positive" because the sheeple will believe anything. So rather than losing BSC, we shifted the risk to JPM, offered up some billion dollar loans to the insolvent banks, and now all that's great news. Economy fixed, growth ahead, long live the FED....and pin an police badge on the FED for "helping" out.
I am no expert, but after watching the lambasting of the big 5 oil clowns on Tuesday, I think alot of commodities will experiance a huge price correction right after the elections.
But I too have been wrong more times than being right.
Does not mean I am going to buy more gold tomorrow
The real clowns are the politicians that approve of the game played by the FED, Treasury, and their bankers. The oil baffoons have to play by the restrictive rules the politicians mandate. When oil companies are losing money in down cycles we don't think twice about it. But when the flip side occurs (like today) because of FED induced monetary inflation and market rigging, we go looking for the scapegoat oil companies to dump on. I'd say the clowns are in Congress and we have 3 more of them on the short list for our next president.
The stock market of today is not much different than the casinos, except at least the games at the Casino are not usually rigged. While they may have a slight edge over 50% on you, the stock markets makes that look silly. The Romans had the circus and we have the stock market, casinos, Deal or No Deal, American Gladiator, Biggest Loser, and American Idol to keep us entertained. But none of them can be considered investing.
Actually, it was several years ago now, but students at MIT proved the theory once and for all.
Pigs, given enough inertial propulsion and velocity, will indeed fly.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before. >>
You didn't go out on a limb, you've already fallen from the tree. The economy of today is unparalleled and PMs will continue to rise as has gas. I remember 35 cents a gallon. Platinum had a 400,000 oz deficit last year with predictions of up to a million for 2008.
I heard this same story when gold was 362/oz, paltinum at 600/oz and silver at 4.64/oz. Tell me where these PMs are today. Where they will be soon enough is 1500+/oz, 3300+/oz and 35+/oz.
i like the current price of gold. i see that you are right about a short term pull back but many expected that. long term things are still reasonable for the price to slowly creep back up.
our govt will not change their ways of debasing our currency. rep or dem, nothing will change. socialism is on its way. higher taxes. more money being printed/created.
<< <i>i like the current price of gold. i see that you are right about a short term pull back but many expected that. long term things are still reasonable for the price to slowly creep back up.
our govt will not change their ways of debasing our currency. rep or dem, nothing will change. socialism is on its way. higher taxes. more money being printed/created. >>
But the candidates said they'd fix the economy, give me health insurance, pay down the nat'l debt and bring world peace... Are you saying this won't happen? Text
<< <i>i like the current price of gold. i see that you are right about a short term pull back but many expected that. long term things are still reasonable for the price to slowly creep back up.
our govt will not change their ways of debasing our currency. rep or dem, nothing will change. socialism is on its way. higher taxes. more money being printed/created. >>
Europe is more socialist than the US. They pay more in taxes and they have central banks that print money. Maybe thats the way to go.
Does anyone here honestly think that the fed is suddenly going to start raising interest rates? Please....
There will be no cut today...and it will be spin. It will drive confidence into the dollar. That is my bet. Cuts and other "special facilities" will follow. Fannie Mae is in some serious trouble. HELOC's, CC's and auto loans will soon begin their defaults.
The cut doesnt even matter. The special facilities have socialized risk for the banks and they are STILL NOT LENDING.
The actions of the banks should really tell you what is going on. The fed right now is in PR mode...nothing more.
I took TDN's forecast as his Long Term call as well. It really doesn't make a lot of sense to forecast gold in the short term due to increasing volatility. We'll find out in a year or less whether $1033 was the all-time market high, and game-over. I'm not a believer in that. We've now moved from the pre-game show to the first inning of the derivatives debacle. 8 more innings to go beyond that.
In fact I'd be willing to place a couple of bets, even up, that $1033 was not the peak of the gold market and that it will be exceeded within 15 months.
The studious Dave Wnuck of CRO closely related the GOLD connection (up/down) to the overall health of Coin valuations. It is no wonder that although band from this forum PM's are still discussed here- for the moment.......
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
<< <i>The studious Dave Wnuck of CRO closely related the GOLD connection (up/down) to the overall health of Coin valuations. It is no wonder that although band from this forum PM's are still discussed here- for the moment....... >>
CRO was banned? the same person i am thinking of who posted a lot or another person related to the company CRO?
<< <i>March 30, 2008 TDN wrote I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before. >>
At this point, TDN's call looks to be very good one. Kudos.
What we have been seeing is big liquidation over the course of the last 4-5 weeks by hedge funds using the limited numbers of PM Banks who are also the Market Makers who are simply front running the liquidation orders and simply adding gasoline to a burning building.
PCGS is a single ant to this herd of elephants. No possible effect!
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
TDN, he doth write in riddles. But it's clear to me that he seeth gold dead for years from here. It just won't be the case. The market cannot possibly understand the effects of $1 QUAD in derivatives and how it plays out. It's clear that all the bankrupt banks did not understand it. It's clear that our elected representatives and 99% of the investing public did not understand. It's also clear that most hedge fund managers did not understand this.
We've just run into the first major all commodities correction similar to what happend in Aug 1974-Dec 1976. In that era gold fell 50% and then proceeded to go up 750% as inflation increased. Out of these ashes will emerge another large up cycle. But time will tell. Hmm, maybe TDN is that counter-party to the JS $1MILL bet?
<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before. >>
TDN's OP said this March 30, 2008.....Brilliant mind here!!!!
TDN's call was very good. But there is no need for a second prediction since he felt the PM run was dead. That to me means this entire bull cycle is finished. So that really is his next prediction...that metals are not coming back. In short, it would mean that the commodity bull is dead as well and that no further inflationary forces will be around for many years.
<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before. >>
Not this time ... great call.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
But there is no need for a second prediction since he felt the PM run was dead.
After such a well-timed call, I'd give TDN the benefit of the doubt to refresh his projection. When you're out on a limb, you can always crawl a little further.................
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
His prediction was calling a top and it's still early in the game IMO. He's certainly ahead at this time but I have to ask myself are we better off today than we were in 2002 when this started? Not in my book in fact we're moving more toward the edge. If you've read the big thread most of us believe that big swings up and down will occur as the price went up and in my book this is one of those and will spring up just as fast. You never know but something bad in the world could turn this on a dime. Buy on the dips is still prudent IMO even though it's 3 to 5 dollars over spot. The mines are starting to cut back on purpose and delaying new projects, the demand for the physical will drive up price just like OPEC does with oil when it's going down. JMO
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>2. The Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 -- indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted. >>
Lets look at this realistically...Isn't his a little like saying that you expect to be $100 short of making your bills for this paycheck, and then when you find that you're only $90 short go out and put something on your credit card because you got extra money and things are rosy? I'm going to come up with a new system for counting human age where when reaching 50 you start counting backwards...would you guys like to join in the fun - who wouldn't want to claim that they're 30 when they're actually 70?
I think both analogies are kinda flawed. Read TDN's post. The markets were braced for, and had probably priced in, a worse number. Thus when a better number appeared, the market priced this new information in, resulting in a rise.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
to intrude to this melange of wishful thinking, hope,
manipulation of news and markets would be almost
criminal. Just look at the system of servitude that enmeshes
us in luxury at the price of our financial souls. Everyone gets
a credit card, even your cat, dog and goldfish. You are enticed
to use your card to the hilt, then get a credit line against your house
to pay off the credit card and start over again. Then the powers that be
make it much more difficult to declare bankruptcy. Now you are trapped in
a downward spiral of increasing debt and increasing interest. Now, to keep
the game afloat we devalue the dollar, reduce government oversight of financial
institutions and make debt , a National symbol of responsible behavior. If one truly
believes that a big day on Wall Street signifies the end of our trepidation , then be it from
me to spoil the party.Perhaps, our Government has solved all of the problems or at least
reduced them to manageable size and all will now be well.....Perhaps pigs can fly and cows
can sing tenor in an Italian Opera.
Camelot
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The path of least resistance is DOWN. The shorts are in charge, and they will be for awhile.
It's ironic that we don't even have good news anymore to move the markets. Now we rely on less "bad news" or bad news that is not as bad as expected to drive it....or "bad news" that is so obviously negative that TPTB just call it "positive" because the sheeple will believe anything. So rather than losing BSC, we shifted the risk to JPM, offered up some billion dollar loans to the insolvent banks, and now all that's great news. Economy fixed, growth ahead, long live the FED....and pin an police badge on the FED for "helping" out.
What irony. And well said Bear.
roadrunner
Bear...can i have that for sustenance....and the FED circus for entertainment?
(i get airsick and can't stand the opera)
will experiance a huge price correction right after the elections.
But I too have been wrong more times than being right.
Does not mean I am going to buy more gold tomorrow
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
The stock market of today is not much different than the casinos, except at least the games at the Casino are not usually rigged. While they may have a slight edge over 50% on you, the stock markets makes that look silly. The Romans had the circus and we have the stock market, casinos, Deal or No Deal, American Gladiator, Biggest Loser, and American Idol to keep us entertained. But none of them can be considered investing.
roadrunner
I just threw one of my neighbors' pigs out the barn loft. Discovered pigs can't fly. Respectfully, John Curlis
Did he at least strike a high note on the way down?
I knew it would happen.
Pigs, given enough inertial propulsion and velocity, will indeed fly.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before.
You didn't go out on a limb, you've already fallen from the tree. The economy of today is unparalleled and PMs will continue to rise as has gas. I remember 35 cents a gallon. Platinum had a 400,000 oz deficit last year with predictions of up to a million for 2008.
I heard this same story when gold was 362/oz, paltinum at 600/oz and silver at 4.64/oz. Tell me where these PMs are today. Where they will be soon enough is 1500+/oz, 3300+/oz and 35+/oz.
<< <i>Can you say 'dead cat bounce'?
Meow...
He's got 8 more lives
term pull back but many expected that. long term things are still
reasonable for the price to slowly creep back up.
our govt will not change their ways of debasing our currency.
rep or dem, nothing will change. socialism is on its way. higher
taxes. more money being printed/created.
<< <i>i like the current price of gold. i see that you are right about a short
term pull back but many expected that. long term things are still
reasonable for the price to slowly creep back up.
our govt will not change their ways of debasing our currency.
rep or dem, nothing will change. socialism is on its way. higher
taxes. more money being printed/created. >>
But the candidates said they'd fix the economy, give me health insurance, pay down the nat'l debt and bring world peace... Are you saying this won't happen? Text
<< <i>i like the current price of gold. i see that you are right about a short
term pull back but many expected that. long term things are still
reasonable for the price to slowly creep back up.
our govt will not change their ways of debasing our currency.
rep or dem, nothing will change. socialism is on its way. higher
taxes. more money being printed/created. >>
Europe is more socialist than the US. They pay more in taxes and they have central banks that print money. Maybe thats the way to go.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
There will be no cut today...and it will be spin. It will drive confidence into the dollar. That is my bet. Cuts and other "special facilities" will follow. Fannie Mae is in some serious trouble. HELOC's, CC's and auto loans will soon begin their defaults.
The cut doesnt even matter. The special facilities have socialized risk for the banks and they are STILL NOT LENDING.
The actions of the banks should really tell you what is going on. The fed right now is in PR mode...nothing more.
siliconvalleycoins.com
In fact I'd be willing to place a couple of bets, even up, that $1033 was not the peak of the gold market and that it will be exceeded within 15 months.
roadrunner
<< <i>Let's give this 60 days and revisit it. >>
Good call, TDN
Something tells me that this thread will reappear periodically through next year.
The name is LEE!
His lights back on, he's re-emerged!
60 days wasn't majorly down.
Now which coin should I add to my collection ?
to the overall health of Coin valuations. It is no wonder that although band from this forum
PM's are still discussed here- for the moment.......
<< <i>Made all the difference!
Mmmm
I tried to keep it coin related
<< <i>The studious Dave Wnuck of CRO closely related the GOLD connection (up/down)
to the overall health of Coin valuations. It is no wonder that although band from this forum
PM's are still discussed here- for the moment....... >>
CRO was banned? the same person i am thinking of who posted a lot or another person related to the
company CRO?
<< <i>March 30, 2008 TDN wrote
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before.
At this point, TDN's call looks to be very good one. Kudos.
to give a really big boost of excitement and good buzz
for the LB show and all the auctions.
Maybe the David Halls, of the world have big
money influence and can give the markets a bit-o juice, at least
long enough for the shows and auctions.
What we have been seeing is big liquidation over the course of the last 4-5 weeks by hedge funds using the limited numbers of PM Banks who are also the Market Makers who are simply front running the liquidation orders and simply adding gasoline to a burning building.
PCGS is a single ant to this herd of elephants. No possible effect!
<< <i>PCGS is a single ant to this herd of elephants. No possible effect! >>
More like a grain of sand on a sandy beach...
Btw .. CLCT's quarterly earnings supposed to come out today. If the stock is any indication, it does not look promising.
TDN, he doth write in riddles. But it's clear to me that he seeth gold dead for years from here. It just won't be the case. The market cannot possibly understand the effects of $1 QUAD in derivatives and how it plays out. It's clear that all the bankrupt banks did not understand it. It's clear that our elected representatives and 99% of the investing public did not understand. It's also clear that most hedge fund managers did not understand this.
We've just run into the first major all commodities correction similar to what happend in Aug 1974-Dec 1976. In that era gold fell 50% and then proceeded to go up 750% as inflation increased. Out of these ashes will emerge another large up cycle. But time will tell. Hmm, maybe TDN is that counter-party to the JS $1MILL bet?
roadrunner
<< <i>Vewwy vewwy sleepy!
How about comatose
<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before.
TDN's OP said this March 30, 2008.....Brilliant mind here!!!!
Wanna try again? Let's see how good you are?
I knew it would happen.
roadrunner
<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.
Of course - I've been wrong before.
Not this time ... great call.
After such a well-timed call, I'd give TDN the benefit of the doubt to refresh his projection. When you're out on a limb, you can always crawl a little further.................
I knew it would happen.
>>>My Collection