My bold PM prediction

tradedollarnut

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.

Of course - I've been wrong before.

Bochiman

Ok.

Thanks SaintNutGuru

tradedollarnut

Somebody has to step in for him while he's trying to make bail out of the Tijuana jail.

StampAlarm

You mean like over and prices retreat back to pre-begin levels?

Musca

Spreading rumors so the market will drop to help your price averaging... I know that technique... LOL

Not sure I agree with you but the only thing I feel "safe" purchasing based on my numismatic knowledge are Buillon coins and Proof/Mint Sets and 90% "junk."

Been looking at an investment/collecting strategy now looking for a numismatist to discuss it with.

Jason

buffalonut

You are out on a limb. We are in the middle of an inflationary recession and John Q Public has barely begun to notice PM prices. The financial world is waiting for the next shoe to drop; before its all over it will be raining shoes. You can smell the smoke coming of of the printing presses!

This is fun>>>>http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

buffalonut

My strategy is PR70 Buffalos. I have 3 sets going; including the 2001-P Buffs. I need one more one more of the PR70 2001-P Buffs and I will have 3 full herds, that is, until they release the 2008 and fractionals. Damn! this is getting expensive.

Bochiman

<< <i>Somebody has to step in for him while he's trying to make bail out of the Tijuana jail. >>



I thought he was moonlighting for the film industry. Something about donkeys???

RedTiger

I vote for a correction, likely a deep one with silver back to $14, and gold to $800. Seems like too many newbies have taken the bait and bought what may be an intermediate term top. Markets often punish newbies that stampede in after a six month 50% run up in prices, like gold has seen. Worse, some have rushed in to buy this first big dip. Again, markets often generate enough pain to make those folks cry uncle and get out, sometimes selling at an intermediate term low.

On the positive side is that this week's Barrons cover story was on commodities and how much danger there is of a correction. Cover stories are often a good indicator. A cover story saying be cautious often means more to go on the upside.

As always, the average collector should ignore the short term fluctuations, and buy and sell in small increments when getting in or out and be happy with an average price over time. The average person that tries timing, loses. Those foolish enough to seek their financial advice from public forums like this one, tend to lose money, often lots of money.

Deadhorse

<< <i>I'm gonna go out on a limb here and state that the PM run is near the end. IMO, even tho there are still great reasons for the PM's to advance, the market has already factored those into the price.

Of course - I've been wrong before. >>



I'm standing on solid ground, and I happen to believe you are somewhere around 180 degrees in the opposite direction of a clear and obvious reality.

I've been wrong before as well, but not 100% wrong. Generally, I am only wrong in the time frame.

Let's give this 60 days and revisit it.

options26

Please let there be a correction. I'm buying for the long term and have been buying since 1999. Remember what Redfield said in that note that the IRS found

"The government can't tax wealth that can't be located. Burn this and tell no one. Carry on as though no coin or currency was left."

PerryHall

<< <i>Of course - I've been wrong before. >>

Deadhorse

<< <i>Please let there be a correction. I'm buying for the long term and have been buying since 1999. >>



You're seeing it right now, this last attempt is about all they've got left.

Buy now or pay more later.

jmski52

I think that you should check & see how much of that limb has been sawed-through. If there's a serious recession it might reverse PMs. Other than that, all I see is inflationary pressure in everything I purchase.

What do you see, TDN - that makes you think that? And, what do you think of Greysheet's predictions about rare coins?

Remember what Redfield said in that note that the IRS found

"The government can't tax wealth that can't be located. Burn this and tell no one. Carry on as though no coin or currency was left."

Interesting comment. Is there a good book on the Redfield Hoard?

tradedollarnut

What do you see, TDN - that makes you think that?

Just a gut feel.

RYK

I believe in cycles, and that is all I am going to say about the subject.

I also believe that if the PM market would to take a dive, it would take the coin market with it (most of the coin market, anyway).

jmski52

TDN, you now have 1 1/2 days in a row of making a correct call. The trend is your friend! Would you mind keeping us informed when you see the end of the crash?

Just for the record, I added some silver at the top, and I'm looking to add more yet.

Also, this is starting to make 2008 look very interesting in some of my favorite overpriced Mint products.

Nysoto

I agree with TDN. When interest rates increase, the dollar will strengthen which will reduce gold in USD.

57loaded

i pretty much agree with DeadHorse

we are in some uncharted economic theory/practice with Bernanke and his knowledge/specialty of the Great Depression and applictions to a world fiat money economy of today. we can see that with the wild swings in the markets.

i can't see PM going much more south, it wasn't the newbies that drove the price up, then down....it was the gld and slv funds where massive amounts of money went in there and back out to book profits for the end of fiscal quarter and the PPT

however i doubt gold will reach the adjusted-for-inflation-price of 1980 which wuold be somewhere around $2000. The reason for that i think is the federal government has manipulated the indices periodicaly that do not reflect the true rate of inflation and cost of living indexes and many more factors that I not aware of....lol

it (PM....specifically silver and gold) is a good hedge now with your other investments, sometime in the future it may not be or it may be the only deal in town, most likely somewhere in between

cohodk

Come on TDN. You know we have conquered gravity. It is the weakest force in the universe afterall.

OPA

Platinum is trying to break below $1900 oz...off more than 5%

roadrunner

As a coin historian I would assume TDN is looking at 1980 with his crystal ball. That's when gold finally hit a mania peak at $875 in January with rare coins following in April. If this is the logic, then rare coin prices are a few months behind gold with the market being OVER for many years. Then it's time to bail now.

I strongly disagree however. Smart money may have factored in all the bad news that has been presented to them but this same smart money (starting with no less than Skipper Bernanke and Gilligan Paulson) has called every ending to the sub-prime mess wrong since August. I'm convinced that we've only considered less than 10-20% of the total problem in sub-prime and all that follows. That means much further for gold to go to account for this. We're still on the upslope of the parabola for sub-prime write downs....and it's only getting steeper. The banks and brokerages are hiding a huge amount of bad debt from the public but they have the FED and Treasury behind them. And on top of that, too many of them don't even yet know how many Billions or Trillions they are underwater on. We reach the peak in 2011. And only then will we start the actual mending.

Rising interest rates will not stop gold initially. It didn't in 1979-1981 until rates were at 20%. Rising interest rates will not stop gold until people make a profit holding CD's over the metals. It will take several years of rising rates to even things out.

roadrunner

jmski52

I love watching the Fed and the banks play high stakes poker (with my money).

Cohodk, play fair. You need to adjust all those charts for inflation, don't you?

Longacre

I think the PM run is history, too. I have moved my millions into something else.

CarlWohlforth

My gut agrees more with RR than TDN. With so much liquidity and continuing national deficits I just can't believe the dollar is on a long term road to recovering strength. I think we are seeing a rebound in financial stocks because the massive injection of liquidity is finally helping. When people realize inflation is the highest since the '70s the dollar will continue to weaken and gold strengthen. Inflation is the natural consequence of printing so many dollars. This looks like a buying opportunity for those who don't have any gold. I'm not selling until gold is way, way higher.

fc

until the govt stops spending like mad and continuing to pile up debt i do not
see a huge retraction in PM prices. i wonder what comes after a trillion?

tradedollarnut

i wonder what comes after a trillion?

Two trillion?

19Lyds

<< <i>I believe in cycles, and that is all I am going to say about the subject.

I also believe that if the PM market would to take a dive, it would take the coin market with it (most of the coin market, anyway). >>



I would think only the "bullion coin market" would be seriously affected.

Bochiman

<< <i>i wonder what comes after a trillion?

Two trillion? >>



Bzzzzzzzzzzz


One trillion and one

Broadstruck

PM = Precious Metals

storm888

Cash, no matter how useless some folks have decided it is, will be KING for at least the
balance of 2008.

Folks who listen to the metal-pumpers, should be ready to hold for a good while or to sell
at a loss.

The path of least resistance is DOWN.

The shorts are in charge, and they will be for awhile.

Jcarney

<< <i>i wonder what comes after a trillion?

Two trillion? >>

CarlWohlforth

<<Cash, no matter how useless some folks have decided it is, will be KING for at least the
balance of 2008.>>

Cash will buy at least %4 less stuff one year from now. Hold cash, lose buying power.

Blackhawk

If you look at the economic and manufacturing reports that were released recently, along with the state of our economy, you have to shake your head in dismay at the market being up over 200 points today. The average guy is getting played like a fiddle by the business-interest friends of those who are in Washington pulling the strings on this "recovery". I believe that the definition of a recession is the contraction of the economy for two months in a row - unless there's voo-doo math involved, we're in one now but nobody in power wants to admit it and chance that their wealthy campaign contributors take a big hit when the public finally starts conserving what money they have and stop spending their money (or credit) on consumer goods.

tradedollarnut

It's entirely possible for bad news to come out that isn't as bad as the market has already factored into prices leading to a rally.

Blackhawk

Where's the good news that's supporting the market?...it seems that if a business traps a mouse in the building that it occupies it constitutes enough good news to send the whole market spiraling upward. It seems fishy to me.

tradedollarnut

Where's the good news that's supporting the market?...

See comment above.

cohodk

I think everyone needs to take a few psychology classes.

cohodk

<< <i><<Cash, no matter how useless some folks have decided it is, will be KING for at least the
balance of 2008.>>

Cash will buy at least %4 less stuff one year from now. Hold cash, lose buying power. >>



You could hold other assets and lose more. Or you could profit. If you are risk adverse, then hold cash.

fc

<< <i>I think everyone needs to take a few psychology classes. >>



why? i just listen to what our trustworthy govt tells me and that is that!

Blackhawk

"I think everyone needs to take a few psychology classes."

I already had a few.

cohodk

<< <i>"I think everyone needs to take a few psychology classes."

I already had a few. >>



Maybe take a few more?

The stock market or any market for that matter, is influenced by emotion. Learn what influences emotion and you will be successful in the markets.

Jcarney

<< <i>I believe that the definition of a recession is the contraction of the economy for two months in a row. >>



The classic definition is two consecutivequarters of contraction.

ttown

Looks like Jim wants you to put up some doe$$$$$$$$$$$$. I'm sure you'll walk away with the million.

Paulson Program and Lehman Brothers Raising $4 Billion "Solve Credit Problems"?

Author: Jim Sinclair





Dear Friends,

Gold weakness today is predicated by the short covering strength in the US dollar.

Short covering in the US dollar is predicated by the Paulson program, the $4 billion raised by Lehman Brothers and the conclusion that the credit problems are now behind us.

Who subscribed to the Lehman issue for US $4 billion?

Remember that it is clear the Exchange Stabilization Fund has the right to purchase common shares in any US company they wish.

It is unclear if the Fed can but I have been told they do. In the present conditions where banking rules are being bent for pragmatic purposes, the Fed could lend to the ESF, but in all likelihood not such loan would be required.

That would be a brilliant move to oversubscribe the Lehman issue in order to paint the situation as A-OK.

The problems in credit are NOT behind us. The US dollar problems are far from over.

The Formula is 100% correct.

There are consequences to the increase in liquidity created to craft the appearance that no further major international investment and banking companies will need rescuing.

Gold will trade at $1650 before the second week of January 2011. I am offering a $1,000,000USD wager with a financially qualified party that this will occur.

Any party on Bloomberg, CNBC or CNN stating an opposite opinion on the price of gold should be informed of this challenge.

Please communicate to any vocal bearish gold expert that I challenge them to put their money on their views.

Respectfully,
Jim

ARCO

Oh - I didn't know that dollar fundamentals had changed? I guess borrowing is really the way to wealth. The dollar is rallying and the rally will end because the fundamentals have not changed.

We have the boomers coming up to the retirement and medicade trough, we have a multi trillion dollar war (geopolitical manuevering to stabilize future energy supplies) and we are looking at our first trillion dollar deficit potentially in a few more years. Hell yes, take my gold for those intrinsically scarce dollars!!

We will revisit this thread in a few months I am sure.

Tyler

Blackhawk

I'm not saying people should not take advantage of the government manipulated market swings...just be aware that in the long run, it's not going to be good for the future of our country to saddle present and future citizens (who have wages driven by artificially low COLA numbers) with the large debt incurred to prop up the markets for the short-term gain of those with money. If you think that this transfer of money from the national coffers to your private accounts is A-OK, then by all means have at it.

Jcarney

<< <i>Where's the good news that's supporting the market?.... >>



For today? The two pieces of news which are sparking the markets rise today are:

1. Lehman's convertible stock offering is 4X oversubscribed.

2. The Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 -- indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted.

cohodk

<< <i>Oh - I didn't know that dollar fundamentals had changed? I guess borrowing is really the way to wealth. The dollar is rallying and the rally will end because the fundamentals have not changed.

We have the boomers coming up to the retirement and medicade trough, we have a multi trillion dollar war (geopolitical manuevering to stabilize future energy supplies) and we are looking at our first trillion dollar deficit potentially in a few more years. Hell yes, take my gold for those intrinsically scarce dollars!!

We will revisit this thread in a few months I am sure.

Tyler >>



I posted a chart of the dollar on page 1. From 1985 to 1988 the dollar lost 1/2 its value. The world didnt end.

Blackhawk

<< <i>The classic definition is two consecutivequarters of contraction. >>



You are correct...my post was not.

Blackhawk

<< <i>I posted a chart of the dollar on page 1. From 1985 to 1988 the dollar lost 1/2 its value. The world didnt end. >>



We still had people producing products for our own consumption back then. We can't all manage, consult, and hold meetings to find our way out of our present problems. As the old saying goes...Too many chiefs, not enough indians.

Blackhawk

<< <i>2. The Institute for Supply Management said its March index of national manufacturing activity rose to a reading of 48.6 -- indicating a contraction, but a slower one than in February and tamer than many analysts had predicted. >>



Lets look at this realistically...Isn't his a little like saying that you expect to be $100 short of making your bills for this paycheck, and then when you find that you're only $90 short go out and put something on your credit card because you got extra money and things are rosy? I'm going to come up with a new system for counting human age where when reaching 50 you start counting backwards...would you guys like to join in the fun - who wouldn't want to claim that they're 30 when they're actually 70?