Is it safe to say if a great looking coin is in the dealer's hands for a long time then....
Realone
Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭✭
it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin?
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<< <i>it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin? >>
when it comes to half eagles i can easily say it is over priced. many people would
enjoy to own a AU58 no motto half eagle in a semi key date but not at 5000+ dollars
when a few years back it was 2500.
it tells me that the dealer can afford to have money tied up for months on end. rich dealer eh?
should they care? yes. do they? probably not if 5000 to them is .005 of their inventory.
<< <i>It might just be a date that's hard to sell (low demand). >>
Good point, I have noticed with personal sales that I can sell a semi-key date usually for more than the current market rate but if I try to sell a common date for say average Heritage pricing I can't get rid of them.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin? >>
We often pay a premium for superior coins, so they won't be sold to collectors offering 10% under greysheet. We don't mind
holding them a while for the right buyer to come along.
<< <i>Is it safe to say if a great looking coin is in the dealer's hands for a long time then it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. >>
Possibly true, but it's not safe to say without more details.
<< <i>What doesn't that say about the dealer >>
I don't know- what?
<< <i>and does he/she care >>
I don't know.
<< <i>and should he/she? >>
None of my business.
<< <i>Do you want that coin? >>
Not enough input here to make a reasonable decision on that.
<< <i>Is it safe to say if a great looking coin is in the dealer's hands for a long time then....it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin? >>
hardly a fast rule. i know for a absolute fact that many dealers overprice certain coins that they don't really want to "move". they are more like "teaser" coins, get you looking and buying something else.
K S
RYK
<< <i>Just talking generalities my boy, just generalities, don't have to have specifics all the time, you can substitute your experiences in there and I am sure you got them. >>
Ok then.
<< Is it safe to say if a great looking coin is in the dealer's hands for a long time then it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. >>
No.
<< What doesn't that say about the dealer >>
Just about anything.
<< and does he/she care >>
No.
<< and should he/she? >>
No.
<< Do you want that coin? >>
Maybe.
I talked with a dealer who owned an 1877 Proof 20 Cents, with beautiful and 100% natural iridescent toning, and would grade in the high PR60's. The coin's price tag? $7,500, and he would rather keep it then sell it for less. Funny thing, I understood exactly where he was coming from, and he had owned the coin since the 90's.
My website: CoinAuctionsHelp.com
WH
<< <i>What if the coin is on consignment from a collector with an unrealistic expectation of its value?
WH >>
last year I wanted to consign a major key with a national dealer for 50 big ones, but decided to keep it since it was almost impossible to replace
1. overgraded
2. overpriced
3. have a booger on the slab
4. the dealer has little foot traffic
5. a solar eclipse
6. capable of fart noises when looked at under a loupe
7. guarded by poo flinging monkeys
(maybe not so much the last three)
Yep I'm pretty sure we can...
Short answer.............90% of the time it's usually ONE of those or BOTH.
Let's not get caught in semantics of consignment or the dealer being a collector at heart, etc. It's either overpriced (to you or the majority of the market) for this particular time or it's not. Just because the highest possible paying buyer has not happened along yet and will eventually show up someday (3 months to 3 years) doesn't mean it's not overpriced. One buyer is not the market. And at auction, 2 bidders do not make the whole market either.....but only for a fixed instant in time.
I had one coin I could not get a dealer to part 6 years ago at "X" dollars . I was willing to pay 80% of X, but that was it. They ultimately owned that coin for 3 years and continued to drop the price every so often. It also found it's way into SIX major auction sales over that time. Each time it was bought back and the reserve price lowered. The coin was even downgraded and placed in a PCGS holder to help sell it. All the while I had been a potential buyer of the coin at 80% of X, then 70%, then 60% and finally it was so overexposed I didn't want it any longer, and it was a decent and rare coin too. It finally sold for around 50% of the orig asking price after 3 long years making nothing for this dealer. And this was a dealer who tries to turn inventory within a couple of months.
Summary: Both overpriced and overgraded.
90% rule: 90% of the coins that are worthy to own and priced right and graded right, fly off the shelf pretty quick upon being listed as a newp. It's the other 10% that sit for months are the ones you need to be just as careful of. If it's still around ask yourself why? Are you the only who recognizes the great value of this treasure? Did all the dealers at the last 3 major shows all miss it too? If your primary purchases tend to be stale stock, you might want to think it through. Not that a coin could be drastically lowered in price and be a great value - but usually it's not the case. And dropping price does not usually solve the problem as you end up with something that was probably rejected for a quality issue and now it's just cheaper. The seller should care about selling the coin for the right price, whatever that may be. But too often they are fixated on what they want in $$ or what they think they have without regards to anything else.
roadrunner
I often think along similar lines when I see a coin sitting a dealer's inventory for months - if he/she can't sell it, I'll never be able to sell it (without taking a bath). Psychology also plays a roll in pricing. If a coin does not sell or the dealer keeps marking it down, most collectors will be less tempted to pull the trigger. However, if the dealer can create some buzz, the buyer generally has no problem buying the coin right away.
<< <i>it is overpriced or overgraded or often both.
Short answer.............90% of the time it's usually ONE of those or BOTH.
Let's not get caught in semantics of consignment or the dealer being a collector at heart, etc. It's either overpriced (to you or the
majority of the market) for this particular time or it's not. Just because the highest possible paying buyer has not happened along yet,
and will eventually show up someday (3 months to 3 years) doesn't mean it's not overpriced. One buyer is not the market. And at
auction, 2 bidders do not make the whole market either.....but only for a fixed instant in time.
I had one coin I could not get a dealer to part 6 years ago at "X" dollars . I was willing to pay 80% of X, but that was it.
They ultimately owned that coin for 3 years and continued to drop the price every so often. It also found it's way into SIX
major auctions sales over that time. Each time it was bought back and the reserve price lowered. The coin was even downgraded
and placed in a PCGS holder to help sell it. All the while I had been a potential buyer of the coin at 80% of X, then 70%, then 60%
and finally it was so overexposed I didn't want it any longer, and it was a decent and rare coin too. It finally sold for around 50% of the orig asking price after 3 long years making nothing for this dealer. And this was a dealer who tries to turn inventory within a couple of months.
Summary: Both overpriced and overgraded.
90% rule: 90% of the coins that are worthy to own and priced right and graded right, fly off the shelf pretty quick upon being listed as a newp. It's the other 10% that sit for months are the ones you need to be just as careful of. If it's still around ask yourself why? Are you the only who recognizes the great value of this treasure? Did all the dealers at the last 3 major shows all miss it too? If your primary purchases tend to be stale stock, you might want to think it through. Not that a coin could be drastically lowered in price and be a great value - but usually it's not the case. And dropping price does not usually solve the problem as you end up with something that was probably rejected for a quality issue and now it's just cheaper. The seller should care about selling the coin for the right price, whatever that may be. But too often they are fixated on what they want in $$ or what they think they have without regards to anything else.
roadrunner >>
<< <i>I have experienced dealers whom bought a coin years ago, that they like so much themselves, they would rather not part with it. If it sells for the high premium; fine. If it don't, then they get to keep their prized possession and don't consider it a loss either way.
I talked with a dealer who owned an 1877 Proof 20 Cents, with beautiful and 100% natural iridescent toning, and would grade in the high PR60's. The coin's price tag? $7,500, and he would rather keep it then sell it for less. Funny thing, I understood exactly where he was coming from, and he had owned the coin since the 90's.
My website: CoinAuctionsHelp.com >>
End of story: I sold the coin for $175 a short time later and licked my wounds.
Lesson learned: be careful of 50% off sales as well as variants thereof.
Happy ending: I stopped dealing with that dealer a few years later. Enough was enough. A one way street is only good for so long.
roadrunner
At one shop I go to I swear some coins have been in the same spot for 8 years!
The writing on the 2x2's is faded badly.
This place has even changed owners once too.
They are some colonials, large cents, key smallcents, etc...
The place is always busy. I think it's the clientel. I rarely see anyone other than me looking at the types.
You can't get near the Morgans, junk boxes & bullion.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
I am looking for either a collector that appreciates that coin, at the current price level.
Prices do tend to go up, however, and not selling a coin this month really does not mean anything to me.
Eventually, an appreciative new buyer will come along.
Don't seem to think that coins become worth less money when unsold. In reality, most coins become more valuable.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
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<< <i>Is it safe to say if a great looking coin is in the dealer's hands for a long time then . . . it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin? >>
I think you might want to think about not over-thinking this issue.
The logical extension of your reasoning is to only buy a coin the instant it is listed by a dealer and before anyone else can grab it.
Of course if you do that, you won't know if it was a good deal or not. To be sure, you'd need to see if someone else snapped it up, and if they did, that would mean that it might have been a great deal - though of course it would be too late for you at that point.
Don't seem to think that coins become worth less money when unsold. In reality, most coins become more valuable....
True. But if gold is going up at 25% per year (and it has for several years on average) then I would feel silly as a dealer holding coins in inventory that are increasing at 0-10% year. No national dealer survives on making a gross 10% per year unless they start with $2,000,000 in inventory.
The logical extension of your reasoning is to only buy a coin the instant it is listed by a dealer and before anyone else can grab it. Of course if you do that, you won't know if it was a good deal or not. To be sure, you'd need to see if someone else snapped it up, and if they did, that would mean that it might have been a great deal - though of course it would be too late for you at that point.
Usually one goes by their gut instinct, expertise, and series knowledge when pulling the trigger early on a retailer's newp. Sometimes you get to pull the trigger before that coin is even listed or offered to anyone else. And it's to your advantage as it gives the dealer less time to research the piece or get more opinions on it and for less other sharks to inspect it. You don't want to be going in blind and pick just anything. As long as you have a good inkling the coin feels right (or you just in awe of it) and the price is there, then take a swing. The odds are better than if you pulled the trigger on a 3 month old retread. And just because someone else beat you to the punch before you saw the coin, doesn't mean they didn't become first "buried." Remember, you didn't even see the coin yet. It might have been hiding major issues not visible in photos or not even visible to the dealer selling it.
It's no secret that other dealers/collectors scour the big shows looking for newps from their favorite dealers before they truly realize they have underpriced something. "Got any newps?" Or more revealing: "got any newps (....that are underpriced or undergraded that I can beat you upside the head on) ? The early bird usually gets the worm. Got Newps?
roadrunner
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
There is a 1799 Large cent PCGS AG3 that has been on e-bay for many months. I think he is asking about $4300. I asked him if he would accept 2.5 times the Grey Sheet price. My way of saying where do you come up with this ridiculous price? He said no, that Grey Sheet price was for damaged or corroded coins and that his coin was worth many times that price. I wanted to say "If the coin is worth that much why has it not sold" but I said nothing.
How long will this coin be for sale?
It's safe to say that many collectors who balk at the asking price will pay even more when the coin goes to auction. Collectors' huevos grow bigger when supported by underbidders.
Edit to add :
But a "great looking" coin always sells.
Steve
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin? >>
You would be surprised how many dealers are also collectors. Coins the dealer would just as soon hang onto are often overpriced because the dealer really does not want to sell them as a collector, but being a dealer there is always a price for everything. Sort of a Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde thing.
<< <i>
<< <i>it is overpriced or overgraded or often both. What doesn't that say about the dealer and does he/she care and should he/she? Do you want that coin? >>
You would be surprised how many dealers are also collectors. Coins the dealer would just as soon hang onto are often overpriced because the dealer really does not want to sell them as a collector, but being a dealer there is always a price for everything. Sort of a Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde thing. >>
Agree. Also, some dealers think they are running a museum since you see the same coins year after year. Having dead inventory for several years tells me the dealer has a lack of business training and is a wannabe.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I think people have an unrealistic sense of how quickly coins sell. For what it's worth, when I set up at a show, potential buyers don't even ask for prices on half of the coins in the showcase. Sometimes, I can own a coin for a year and not have a dozen people ask for a price. And keep in mind that most of the people asking for prices are dealers. The bottom line is that finding the right home for a rare coin often takes time, and price has surprisingly little to do with it. >>
I like this response.
<< <i>finding the right home for a rare coin often takes time, and price has surprisingly little to do with it. >>
wait a minute... do you mean that, from a collectors perspective, if you like a coin, if you really REALLY like it, then the price does not matter?
nah, could'nt be
K S
Time and time again I have consigned these same coins to a major auction hoping to just get most of my money back.
I am always pleased yet somewhat astounded to see dealers and collectors who have spurned these coins both at my show tables and my website bid them to prices far in excess of the price I was asking.
In some cases double my reserve and more.
Is it just a case of not needing the coins then but needing them now? ( happens too many times to make this argument logical.)
Is it a case of "auction fever"? (too many experienced dealers and advanced collectors repeating this scene make this implausable.)
Is it a case of me just being a poor salesman and failing to merchandise my products successfully? (maybe.)
Finally, With all the paranoia over doctoring, questionable toning and downright fraud, do many people feel more comfortable buying where they see other major players bidding heavy money for the same coins they could have bought for far less?
Maybe all the above or none of the above but it has been very profitable to buy coins with consignment in mind.
If they don't sell in six months or so I consign them and usually realize a nicer profit (even after the auction house pc.)
Though it doesn't make good sense and is not readily explainable, that's the way things are right now.
It is obviously not a question of overpricing or poor quality even though there are cases where some sellers offer items at unrealistic prices.
Dave W
The sorrow of poor quality lingers on long after the joy of low prices has been forgotten.
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
I explained it in my previous post.
<< finding the right home for a rare coin often takes time, and price has surprisingly little to do with it. >>
wait a minute... do you mean that, from a collectors perspective, if you like a coin, if you really REALLY like it, then the price does not matter?
Since I try to be fair with my prices, serious buyers rarely pass on the grounds of price. But if I doubled my prices, I'm sure I would meet substantially more resistance, and lose most of my customers pretty quickly. So yes, price does matter.
But to be fair, I tend to agree with your philosophy. One should always be prepared to stretch beyond reason for the right coins. It's just that you've stated your position too broadly to be useful, or true.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>Time and time again I have bought great coins which I believed would be a cinch to sell at a 10% markup only to have them languish in my inventory.
Time and time again I have consigned these same coins to a major auction hoping to just get most of my money back.
I am always pleased yet somewhat astounded to see dealers and collectors who have spurned these coins both at my show tables and my website bid them to prices far in excess of the price I was asking.
In some cases double my reserve and more.
Is it just a case of not needing the coins then but needing them now? ( happens too many times to make this argument logical.)
Is it a case of "auction fever"? (too many experienced dealers and advanced collectors repeating this scene make this implausable.)
Is it a case of me just being a poor salesman and failing to merchandise my products successfully? (maybe.)
Finally, With all the paranoia over doctoring, questionable toning and downright fraud, do many people feel more comfortable buying where they see other major players bidding heavy money for the same coins they could have bought for far less?
Maybe all the above or none of the above but it has been very profitable to buy coins with consignment in mind.
If they don't sell in six months or so I consign them and usually realize a nicer profit (even after the auction house pc.)
Though it doesn't make good sense and is not readily explainable, that's the way things are right now.
It is obviously not a question of overpricing or poor quality even though there are cases where some sellers offer items at unrealistic prices.
Dave W
The sorrow of poor quality lingers on long after the joy of low prices has been forgotten.
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com >>
I have asked myself these questions many times. I have a few "friends" that are dealers. They like to buy from me because I am picky and I only/mostly have choice undamaged coins, and since I have a regular job I don't need to make a profit when I sell a coin. I have asked them why is it that they always balk when I ask for grey sheet bid, but when they buy from Heritage auctions they have no trouble paying double? On top of that they seem to give no consideration to the 20% extra you pay the auctioneer. But time and time again they will not budge (not $5 on a $500 coin) for what they are willing to pay me for a nice coin. They always regret it, but it is still the same story the next time.
<< <i>
<< <i>finding the right home for a rare coin often takes time, and price has surprisingly little to do with it. >>
wait a minute... do you mean that, from a collectors perspective, if you like a coin, if you really REALLY like it, then the price does not matter?
nah, could'nt be
K S >>
Opportunity cost ALWAYS matters.
While your statement may be truer for rare or irreplaceable items, it's hardly true for 90% of the material on the market. Just because you like something, doesn't mean price doesn't matter if you can wait a bit and find another you like equally at a significantly lower price.
That being said, patience is a critical component of one's collection and needs to be a part of both the buying and selling equations.
I buy and sell lots of more common coins, generics so to speak, but I do not think that is what is being referenced here. Rare coins require patience, both buying and selling. The sellers that have me represent them recognize that fact.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
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