Are todays First Spouses yesterdays Platinum Eagles?
renman95
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Beginning 2007 the First Spouses were the NEXT bid thing. It's all but fizzled. Flippers who were fast made some money, but they didn't pan out to be a "2006 W Platinum" phenom.
Five years ago, platinum was $700/oz and collectors of the P-eagles were looking great and enjoying their new-found riches. Mintages were high and coming down slowly. Collectors were added, some specialized in full ounces or tenths without much fanfare. We enjoyed the changing designs quietly while everyone was heralding the statehood quarters. The 2004 proofs were breakthrough coins. It was a small perfect storm of small mintages and high (at the time) metal prices. The small secret club was about to get bombarded. The "2006" phenom changed everything for the series. Now the word is getting out. However, the general public (and collector) is still not savy when it comes to platinum. The radio isn't full of "buy platinum" commercials. It's all about gold.
I believe we are in a long term secular commodities bull market that started in 2001, so...
...since gold has gone from $350 to $950 in the same period will methodical collectors of these First Spouse make out like their "platinum eagle" brethren?
Remember, mintages of the "Spouses" started out in the 20 thousands. Four "Spouses" into the series the Mint cannot sellout their Dolley Madisons. Platinum will price out many passive collectors therein creating even greater "phenom" coins. But the "Spouses" are still affordable. But, for how long?
Ren
Five years ago, platinum was $700/oz and collectors of the P-eagles were looking great and enjoying their new-found riches. Mintages were high and coming down slowly. Collectors were added, some specialized in full ounces or tenths without much fanfare. We enjoyed the changing designs quietly while everyone was heralding the statehood quarters. The 2004 proofs were breakthrough coins. It was a small perfect storm of small mintages and high (at the time) metal prices. The small secret club was about to get bombarded. The "2006" phenom changed everything for the series. Now the word is getting out. However, the general public (and collector) is still not savy when it comes to platinum. The radio isn't full of "buy platinum" commercials. It's all about gold.
I believe we are in a long term secular commodities bull market that started in 2001, so...
...since gold has gone from $350 to $950 in the same period will methodical collectors of these First Spouse make out like their "platinum eagle" brethren?
Remember, mintages of the "Spouses" started out in the 20 thousands. Four "Spouses" into the series the Mint cannot sellout their Dolley Madisons. Platinum will price out many passive collectors therein creating even greater "phenom" coins. But the "Spouses" are still affordable. But, for how long?
Ren
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Other threads report that some First Spouse coins and 2006-W $100 burnished plats are hitting the melting pots.
Both coin types might be scarcer going forward, but if prices of gold and platinum continue to rise, it may be a long time before they carry a significant premium.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The First Spouse coins have designs that don't look so nice so it will be spotty as to which ones do well over time. Remember there are some modern commems with low mintage that are still cheap because no one likes the design.
<< <i>I am betting on the Gold Buffalo. The design will most likely change in 2009 and we get the Fractionals this year. This will be closest to the Platinum series with designs people actually care about.
The First Spouse coins have designs that don't look so nice so it will be spotty as to which ones do well over time. Remember there are some modern commems with low mintage that are still cheap because no one likes the design. >>
I think you are (more) right. The buff-fractionals could do what the plats have done, but the price of gold has already had a dramatic run these past twelve months...$650 to $950.
Ren
Added: Responding to the OP, this paradigm shift - the over-proliferation of new issues that compete with the Spouses (and most importantly, waning interest) will indeed create some lowball numbers in several of the Spouse issues as time goes on. Whether or not that is enough to stir the market for them is an open question that won't be resolved for a few years.
I knew it would happen.
Also, just look at the 5 and 10 year charts of these metals and the exponential climb doesn't seem sustainable unless we are going to level off at a new plateau and then build a base.
But then again looking back to the 1970's and see the runup from the low double digits to $850. It was meteoric and unbelievable. So expect the unexpected.
Ren
<< <i>Beginning 2007 the First Spouses were the NEXT bid thing. It's all but fizzled. Flippers who were fast made some money, but they didn't pan out to be a "2006 W Platinum" phenom.
Five years ago, platinum was $700/oz and collectors of the P-eagles were looking great and enjoying their new-found riches. Mintages were high and coming down slowly. Collectors were added, some specialized in full ounces or tenths without much fanfare. We enjoyed the changing designs quietly while everyone was heralding the statehood quarters. The 2004 proofs were breakthrough coins. It was a small perfect storm of small mintages and high (at the time) metal prices. The small secret club was about to get bombarded. The "2006" phenom changed everything for the series. Now the word is getting out. However, the general public (and collector) is still not savy when it comes to platinum. The radio isn't full of "buy platinum" commercials. It's all about gold.
I believe we are in a long term secular commodities bull market that started in 2001, so...
...since gold has gone from $350 to $950 in the same period will methodical collectors of these First Spouse make out like their "platinum eagle" brethren?
Remember, mintages of the "Spouses" started out in the 20 thousands. Four "Spouses" into the series the Mint cannot sellout their Dolley Madisons. Platinum will price out many passive collectors therein creating even greater "phenom" coins. But the "Spouses" are still affordable. But, for how long?
Ren >>
The Mint mission is to ensure the widest and fairest distribution possible for it's products which is the reasoning behind the imposed order limits for the First Spouse issues. Despite order restrictions and rising issue prices, 15,000 of the Dolley Madison Proof have sold in 3 months and IMO, will also sellout at 20,000 for the Proof. When comparing these sales figures to other Proof gold Mint issues the unit sales per month are far better than most. The previous three 2007 spouses recorded the fastest sellout ever in Mint history, the series is far from fizziling and IMO the new order policy of revising the household limit after a week instead of a month, will result in a higher number sales in the first month, which could result in the amount of First StrikeSM submissions increasing (if they are rasied after the first week). IMO the 2007 First Spouse Proof issues will remain the keys to the series at 20,000.
If it weren't for the huge advance of gold these would still be languishing near issue price. I think you will see the 20,000 mintage be on the high side. "Liberty" versions aside, I see the mintages continue to drop except for some latter years and possibly Mrs. Lincoln.
Also, and not a minor issue, the designs need to captivate an audience. I recently read a great idea that the "Spouses" should have had "eagles" emblematic of the time. That would have brought out the collectors.
Ren
<< <i>I think you will see the 20,000 mintage be on the high side. "Liberty" versions aside, I see the mintages continue to drop except for some latter years and possibly Mrs. Lincoln. >>
Unc's yes. Given the Proofs are by far the more popular option and at 20,000 they are the lowest mintage gold Proofs the Mint has ever issued with the exception of some rare issues (most with sub 500 coin mintages from the turn of the last century) and the Proofs no longer having a 20,000 per spouse product limit, I except the Proof ratio to be a higher percentage of the maximum mintage as it is for all other coins the Mint sells.
The only thing for certain is that neither of us is certain, just speculating.
And, of course, we know the Mint doesn't even know until they pull the plug.
And that hasn't always been the case, e.g.. repackaging.
Ren
etd 4 splg
<< <i>Also, just look at the 5 and 10 year charts of these metals and the exponential climb doesn't seem sustainable unless we are going to level off at a new plateau and then build a base.
Ren >>
And that is exactly what is going to happen, however, we are nowhere near that new plateau yet.
These are heady times for those who had the foresight or blind luck to put away a couple hundred K into .999 fine silver bullion or other precious metals several years ago. For the silver gambler, that would be an over 400% increase with an annual rise of 50-80% increase per year, depending on when they began to put away their hoard.
Not that I would know anyone who did anything like that..............
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
It'll be very interesting to see the proof/unc breakup for this year's two liberties.
I wonder how this will effect the "Dolley Madison"...still for sale but for how long?
Ren