Gold and silver are falling Fast SELLLLLLLLLLLLL See kitco Now
Topdollarpaid
Posts: 600 ✭✭✭
Randy Conway
Www.killermarbles.com
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gold is very volatile tho.
The key is.........you BUY when it goes down!
pretty cool, huh, pretty neat.
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
<< <i>I suppose there is some selling to gain liquidity from stock losses. >>
I suspect the selling is more because the 1/4 point cut isn't as inflationary as the 1/2 point cut the market wanted.
CG
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>Gold prices have responded to the falling dollar. A quarter point cut may weaken the dollar less than a half point cut, but I don't see how it will strengthen the dollar. >>
Markets usually price their expectations into something before it happens. So if the gold market expected more than a quarter-point cut, it would have already priced that into gold before the Fed decision. The easing by 1/4 point means that some of the rate cut they didn't get has to be "priced back out" of gold, meaning it has to be priced for less inflationary pressure than they expected.
Never forget that the financial markets try to price future expectations into today's prices.
<< <i>Gold prices have responded to the falling dollar. A quarter point cut may weaken the dollar less than a half point cut, but I don't see how it will strengthen the dollar.
CG >>
The dollar will strengthen if the US economy slows less than global economies. The FED is saying that absent the credit problems the economy is a-ok.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Crude Oil 89.81 +1.95
<< <i> Crude Oil 89.81 +1.95 >>
Did someone in Saudi Arabia stub their toe?
-David
1/2 pt score. If that had happened gold would have continued higher. But since they didn't get that, some bailed. The 1/4 pt drop is
still negative for the dollar which is ironic since the headlines state the dollar "strengthened."
Back to the trenches to continue the hand to hand combat.
roadrunner
<< <i>Gold is $811.40 an oz right now. How is that down >>
...actually $797.80 at 445pm est
<< <i>Sell ????? to go into what? Tomorrow, after the fear has run it"s course start adding PM's. By Fri. it should be over 800 again. >>
Any rate cuts cheapen the dollar. That's a sure thing.
Lowering the Fed funds rate, 1/2 or 1/4, still weakens the currency. The overseas markets are not as reactionary as the US market. They will bid gold up.
<< <i> The dollar will strengthen if the US economy slows less than global economies. The FED is saying that absent the credit problems the economy is a-ok. >>
But our trade deficits will grow if our economy remains vibrant, since we consume more imports than we export. Wouldn’t a slow down in our economy cause our imports to decline, while the weak dollar makes our products more attractive to foreign buyers—with the ultimate end that a growth in US exports would be a factor that would strengthen the dollar and bring the economy out of a slump?
CG
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
and the discount window bank loan rate to match the same 4%. The
dribble down process is soo small and will prove too late as it will
take at least 6-12 months before such reductions have any effect.
Camelot
Nearly everyone was unanimous in predicting that the Fed was going to drop the rate 1/4%, then sounded surprised when they did.
It was not the 1/4% rate drop that spooked the traders.
It was the Fed commentary today that very much spooked the market instead.
Morgan Stanley also issued a full "recession alert."
It was downright scary!
It was downright scary! <B>
</B>Oreville
i'll bite what did they say
<< <i>It would have made more sense to drop the Fed Funds rate to 4%
and the discount window bank loan rate to match the same 4%. The
dribble down process is soo small and will prove too late as it will
take at least 6-12 months before such reductions have any effect. >>
The recession is already with us .........it should short and brutal, but it will following the Japan experience of the 90s.. effects linger for a long time .
will they ever leave the market alone?
'cause you know that good news is of course, good
and bad news is good
and most of the general public are either too young or idiots who dont understand economic theory
<< <i>we are already well into the recession
'cause you know that good news is of course, good
and bad news is good
and most of the general public are either too young or idiots who dont understand economic theory >>
Worth quoting
<< <i>"Economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks." >>
That was the statement that spooked the markets.
after that 1450,
I dont want to look at my window when it hits 2150
it's going to go up a lot more than down...
Our trade deficit grows because we are exporting much less than we are importing. Capital is leaving rather than entering (negative TIC report). We are consuming more and selling less....which means less profits for businesses and less tax revenues for the govt.
Less revenues means less services, more cutbacks, job cuts, etc.
A downward business cycle until excesses are worked off. A vibrant economy should produce a trade surplus shouldn't it?
The only way to bring the foreign money back is to raise interest rates (honestly strengthen the dollar....not just lip service) and make the dollar "honest fiat" money again (did I really say that?...lol)
In other words offer a decent return for investing in the US.
roadrunner
so what are your thoughts on the statement made today by the fed
i feel your one if not the most respected
on this boards on money and where we could go any input for the boards
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
"Get into the storm cellars, lock up the kids,
prepare not to come out for several years"
Now that........would have really shook the market.
Camelot
You asked:
<< <i>so what are your thoughts on the statement made today by the fed >>
Good question.
I was mystified by the many many years of the Greenspan Federal Reserve commentaries and had little clue about what he was even talking about.
I am still doing victory dances just comprehending Federal Reserve Chairman's Benarnke's statements without thinking about or worrying about whether I agree with him.
I have learned long ago about great economists. They have tremendous art in predicting the past.
Stepping out of line gets you censured or let go.
roadrunner
i know you know what your saying here but
I feel like the guy on tv with the Doctor telling him to cut in to his chest real simply
i know you live with this every day
but break it down to us that don't know
what are you saying what are you doing the victory dance about
what does this mean to us common guys
in real terms
i know this is a dumb question to you but bare with me
i feel there a bunch of guys wondering here . spell it out for us stupid [ note enlighted] here please
wayneme
I wasn't aware you also offered Fed commentary, in addition to sound observations related to coins and collecting!
Glad to get your take.
<< <i>What if the Fed told the truth.
"Get into the storm cellars, lock up the kids,
prepare not to come out for several years"
Now that........would have really shook the market. >>
Chicken Little, in various incarnations, has been singing that song for most of my adult life. The list of economic events is long. Each time, the Chicken panics and tells everyone that the sky is falling. Going way back to the Japanese trade imbalance, to NAFTA, to the huge Federal deficits during the Reagan years, to more recent events such as Enron, or hedge funds going belly up, or the quagmire in Iraq and $100 oil, or peak oil, every significant economic event, brings out the Chicken. So far the Chicken has been wrong every time, sectors of the economy have been hit, however, the overall economy still chugs along with normal fits and starts. Now the Chicken talks of subprime and derivatives, and the Chinese trade imbalance. I feel like I've heard the same melody before, only with a different set of lyrics. Sadly, I must admit that I have heeded the Chicken's call too many times for my own good. I counsel the readers to see the perspective. There are always economic events, always opportunities.
One day the Chicken will get it right. Odds are against this event being that time, considering the track record. Rarely, does the sky fall. Big financial collapses are uncommon events. Rarely will they unfold in the manner that pundits such as newsletter writers predict. For every Chicken Little newsletter writer that does get it right, there will likely be nine that miss it entirely after sounding the alarm time after time. The odds say to bet against the Chicken. If you lose, you'll have plenty of company, if there is a real financial collapse.
/edit typos
Unfortunately, there is a growing feeling that the Federal Reserve is trying to manage the economy rather than manage the money supply.
Except that the Federal Reserve is either too tight or too loose, rates too high or too low. Rates moved down too early too late, etc, etc.
The Goldilocks story is most pertinent. The Poppa, Momma's Bear's porridge are too hot or too cold but never just right.
Reminds me of another story: Ask 10 students of economics (or experts) their current opinion of the economy and you will get 11 (or even 20) answers.
My opinion? This economy in the USA looks very unstable. We are now in a recession in half of the country. The far west and northeast (except for upstate New York) has not yet entered into a recession.
A recession will be very good medicine for our economy. However, the trick will be to keep it from developing into a full blown depression which no Federal Reserve can guarantee.
Right now Congress and the President are facing a HUGE fiscal crisis of over $50 billion dollars. Bush and the Republicans want to adjust the alternative minimum tax to take into account inflation with yet another one year "patch" which will cost $50 billion yet refuses to come forward with an offsetting $50 billion of additional taxes elsewhere.
The Dems refuse to approve the 1 year "patch" of the alternative minimum tax until they get the additional $50 billion tax on hedge funds, etc approved.
My question: Is there any profits left in the hedge funds to tax, etc.?
This last issue could throw our economy into a full blown crisis if the Dems and Repubs do not compromise soon. The IRS will get impossibly backed up and will have to delay the processing of electronic and paper returns. This could mean tax season could end May 15th instead of April 15th.
All they are going to do is as you said, back up the IRS and make lives of people like me more difficult. The patch will be passed. These people don't have the decency to fix the da**ed thing. Rather, they want to jump and down every year so the uninformed will think they are actually trying to do something constructive. Anyone with an IQ bigger than his / her shoe size would index the AMT to inflation, and be done with the matter.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
friend of mine.....and your no Chicken Little.
Camelot
<< <i>I knew chicken little.....Chicken Little was a
friend of mine.....and your no Chicken Little.
Making me laugh this early is too much! Very quick!