Gold or non gold coin for investment
JoeForex
Posts: 90
top picks for long term investment
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If it ain't about the money lord knows i've gone insane
If it ain't about the money lord knows i've gone insane
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Comments
I'm thinking,these guy's might be right.
Brian
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
That's a pretty bold generalized statement to make. Most all of my gold investments, and platinum too - are up quite nicely in the past 5 years. When the gov't stops shoveling dollars out the window in mass quantities in order to maintain their power base, then I will re-evaluate. But until then, I see no reason not to seriously consider gold.
To answer your specific question, how much do you know about rare coins? If you are not a heavyweight in the business, I'd certainly focus on coins that have a bullion component. That way, you are reducing your exposure to dealer churning and hype about various series' rarity, popularity, rare coin market trends, etc. Making money in rare coins is a dealer's game, not for the regular investor. Bullion-weighted series - now that's a different matter. Either way, learn the pitfalls first. Gold doesn't go straight up, and its price is influenced by factors that are much larger such that you, or I will ever be able to reliably predict it's price swings.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If you are looking for investments, you should NOT be looking at coins, period. >>
I agree. Collect what you like and if they increase in value that's great .
<< <i>
<< <i>If you are looking for investments, you should NOT be looking at coins, period. >>
I agree. Collect what you like and if they increase in value that's great . >>
I agree in general but there's a lot of $10 and $20 gold pieces that can be had for $50 to $100 over spot gold. That's not a bad deal if your looking to get into gold as an investment. With these coins you can have a coin collection to enjoy while investing in gold and there's dozens of dates and mint marks in this price range on the Libs and Saints.
<< <i>Get the best of both worlds, rare gold coins
<< <i>If you are looking for investments, you should NOT be looking at coins, period.
That's a pretty bold generalized statement to make. Most all of my gold investments, and platinum too - are up quite nicely in the past 5 years. When the gov't stops shoveling dollars out the window in mass quantities in order to maintain their power base, then I will re-evaluate. But until then, I see no reason not to seriously consider gold.
To answer your specific question, how much do you know about rare coins? If you are not a heavyweight in the business, I'd certainly focus on coins that have a bullion component. That way, you are reducing your exposure to dealer churning and hype about various series' rarity, popularity, rare coin market trends, etc. Making money in rare coins is a dealer's game, not for the regular investor. Bullion-weighted series - now that's a different matter. Either way, learn the pitfalls first. Gold doesn't go straight up, and its price is influenced by factors that are much larger such that you, or I will ever be able to reliably predict it's price swings. >>
Also don't buy real estate, stocks or mutual funds.
Only Tbills and money markets are investments.
And you will get 72 virgins when you get to heaven.
http://www.onlygold.com/Articles/ayr_2001/Why_Numismatic_Investments_are_Always_Horrible_Mistakes_Part_2.asp
Either as long as it's a key or semi-key date.
Bimetallic.
<< <i>"Gold or non gold coin for investment"
Either as long as it's a key or semi-key date. >>
I agree, and be sure that it is a part of a balanced portfolio.
The link below that statement has so many errors in the logic presented as to make it essentially useless. Maybe it would be better to say that coins do well during times when tangibles are flying (1974-1980, 1986-1990, 1997-2005, etc) and no so good when stocks are flying (1921-1929, 1954-1966, 1982-2001, etc).
Pick the wrong 20 yr cycle for either medium and you are sunk.
To say that either is a good long-term investment is sheer folly, and exactly what Wall Street would like the minions to believe (ie hold your stocks forever....they always go up don't they?). How quick the last 40 years is forgotten... only remembering the most recent 20!
The analysis presented in that link relies on using the best 20 years EVER as the stock market example (1981-2001)....gee, that's nice.
This was the most friendly pro-equity period imaginable for the USA.
So, why not use another 20 year period such as 1967-1987 when stock returns stunk and you basically broke even? Comparing the coin market to the same 20 yr time frame where stocks performed the best in history is ludicrous. Who thinks that's gonna happen again? Who thinks we are going to increase the money supply 13X again over the next 20 years? And who thinks there will be another 50X growth in "illiquid" derivatives over the next 20 yrs where your favorite banks and brokerages get to skim 20% off the top for their "management fees?" And who thinks the Central Banks have enough spare gold to sell off another 10,000 to 15,000 tons over the next 20 yrs to manage the gold price further? And over the next 20 yrs we will regain our manufacturing base once again. A lot of ifs there to replay the last 20 years.
The "analysis" basically takes a mix of coins over a fairly poor 20 yr period (thereby almost negating any chance of a good return). That's why coins are sort of interesting, you can pick the winners and stay away from losers with a little thoughtfulness.
Survey assumes your average collector/investor is holding the same coins for those 20 years. Their typical returns for this period is around 20-25% total...very poor. Yet any number of solid and well selected coin purchases in 1981 could have easily netted someone a 5X or 10X return in that period. 500-1000% is a lot better than 25%! Your average newbie coin collector relying on scheister dealers or going it alone would probably get the 25% or lose money in the process. A top collector or seasoned investor using the services of a valuable market pro would multiply his money over and over. The market in 1981-1982 was so bad that you could buy great coins for peanuts. It was the best buying time I've ever seen. Those that did, and held them have done very well indeed. Those were true contrarians. Most every significant coin I bought in the 1981 to 1986 period (and if held through today) is worth 5X to 15X today over what I had paid for it. Too bad I didn't keep them all! Then again, they are not long term investments and never will be. And had I utilized the services of a top pro even more, the returns might have been better....most of those picks were mine.
While I certainly won't say that coins in general out-performed stocks in this period, it's safe to say that well-selected rare coins did very well indeed considering how few years in this period were really pro-coin years (1983-1990, 1997-2001). The stock market was rigged for success and tangibles were not. To think another 20 years of that lies directly in our future is wishing for a lot.
Coins have their moments, just like stocks. To say that something that has strong cyclical behavior with staying power is not an investment is to show ignorance. Don't assume that because it's a bad investment for you that it's the same for all.
roadrunner
<< <i>Coins are the best investment in the world. I guarantee if you have a hobby and relax you'll live longer and if you choose the right economic conditions you will come out ahead
roadrunner
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
<< <i>Key coins are investments. I don't see how anyone can say coin collecting can't be an investment. That's rather ignorant. In the first 5 years I owned my 1877 IHC PCGS XF45, I earned 17% on my money per year. How many investments can say the same? Coins are the best of both worlds because you can buy something tangible and "cool" unlike a stock or options, etc. Key date coins go up the most and fastest, we all know that, so that's my recommendation for what to invest in. Stay away from modern crap, it's going no where in the long term. Old gold is nice too. >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
We were in a primary bear market in gold/silver from 1980 until 2001!!!!
You had two phony events that drove up coin values in the last 30 years...the Hunt silver squeeze in 1979 and the race for coins when Kidder Peabody and Merrill Lynch started the ill-fated coin funds in 1989. This is demand driven...not speculation driven. BIG DIFFERENCE, Kimosabes.
Now you have had gold in a bull market for 5 years. It started in 2002 as gold broke out around $310-$330/oz. This is a long-term move that has legs. Just like oil. The biggest sellers are SOLD OUT. The Soviet Republics sold tons of gold as they seceeded from the USSR starting in 1989 to jump-start their economies. The Central Banks sold tons of gold in the 90's, including Germany, Great Britain and Switzerland near the end of the millenium. That's how bear markets end and bull markets start.
Gold coins have soared in value and the better dates, moreso. Look at the $10 1920-S that Steve Duckor bought in 1978 for 80K. Sold for 1.7 mil. this year. The 1927-D Saint MS65 sold for 475K in 1998....now it's worth about 1.4 mil. Those are the biggest, but many, many coins that are now 50-100K and higher could be bought for half that amount in 2001. How can anyone say that this is not a good investment?
Plese don't tell me that the "It's different this time" is a fallicy. Everything is different. We are just NOW seeing the real fruits of the "global economy" that started in the early 1990's and is now starting to pour money into the old economies...and gold is more desired now than ever.
They aren't minting Liberty's, Saints or Indian gold the last time I checked. But don't take my word for it. Just watch and see how difficulthey are to come by. There's one very loud dealer who says that "TPG slabbed coins are all crap now" but then says "sell me $10 million in coins now, I have buyers!"
The greatest collections in the world are just started in the first decade. This isn't a day-trade that so many people seem to want these days. Investors and fund managers want to kiss the bride before they meet her. I see mutual funds with a 3000% yearly turnover...it used to be that 30% was high! Such a hurry...they can't stand the wait. Precious metals are going to be strong for the long-term...and I mean 10+ years. Great, original rare and semi-rare coins are going to rise. This I am certain of. I could sell my coins today for a 100% gain...but I'm not a net seller. ( I sell lesser coins to buy rarer, better coins) I LOVE them first and foremost; they are beautiful works of art. Read what Willaim H. Woodin, one of the smartest Rennaisance men of the 20th centiry said. "Coins are the metallic footsteps of the history of nations". How profound. That's my feeling, first and foremost for the next decade. I don't need the money for another 15 years. If they doubled again I'd feel the same way.
If you buy (I'm sorry) common junk or coins with POP's in the thousands then it's unlikely that you'll make the "true investment." The same is true of any quality security, real estate or art. But you buy the real demand items and you will be well rewarded with patience. Fortunes are NOT MADE OVERNIGHT. Nor are apples. Plant the seeds and let them grow.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>top picks for long term investment >>
The short answer is take your pick and take your chances.
Those on this post speaking as finance gurus are belittiling a great hobby and
are not numismatists. They are selfstyled investors casting gloom on a hobby.
They are dealers who have worked this investment con game for many years.
If the question and positive answers were on a forum concerned with finance it
would be met with jeers or ignored.
And those offering an opposite opinion are called ignorant. Name calling and
insults are the trademarks of a loser with a weak opinion.
Buy stocks. Not just U.S. stocks though, keep yourself diversified.
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
<< <i>Please be careful... this is a Hobby and sometimes hobbies and investments do not work out as planned.
Don't buy coins or gold for investment.
Buy stocks. Not just U.S. stocks though, keep yourself diversified. >>
A) This is a "hobby" indeed. So is collecting Impressionist paintings, Louis XIII furniture and antique cars. Are they not investments or is "hobby" a disqualifier? Sometimes nothing works out as planned. Gen. George S. Patton said something to the extent of "You can plan a perfect strategy but once the first bullet flies all plans fly out the window."
You just don't GET it, do you?
And Rob....you got hot-pants! That's all.
That puts it around spot, good way to invest in silver?
<< <i>
You just don't GET it, do you?
And Rob....you got hot-pants! That's all.
What is it that I don't get?
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
Lmao...I am not going to get into an argument with him. I just want to hear his side of the story. I am sure he was being facetious. I am also sure that we just disagree on our investment styles!
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
No señor, yours is the ignorant statement. I have been collecting for 40 years, and know of what I speak. If you're TDN and have one of a kind coins that some guy with deep pockets "has to have," sure, you can make money.
But to say that a thinly traded area where you have to pay between a 10% commission up to whatever the seller thinks you're dumb enough to pay on the buy, and that sort of discount when you want to sell, is hardly a good investment.
I have done far better in the securities markets than I have ever done in coins. That being said, finance is an area of my expertise, and I understand what is going on in the markets.
Very few people consistently make money in numismatics. Sure, they brag when they are doing well, but how many of these same people go BK in bad times, only to reappear shortly thereafter?
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
In the school of investments, Diversification 101 teaches us that one should have our money ....."diversified'.
I have stocks and bonds...I have real estate...I even have antique Kilim carpets that are quite valuable. I ALSO have coins. Great coins. They are art. They are also investments.
If anyone here thinks that you can disqualify coins as an investment I say that you're either buying the wrong stuff or are looking for fast money. I see my coins as a passion that I'll hold for 2 decades (If I was a younger man I'd say 3 decades) and in that time they will indeed have become a good investment.
You simply must understand that all coins are not "investment grade". Modern coins are quite overpriced. Common date Morgans are so ubiquitous that they will have a tough battle moving up much. And to make money you have to have money. It's quite a challenge to turn $10K into $20K, but start with $1 million and it's easier to double that. Sorry, but that's the story of capitalism and economics. The hobby is fun and fascinating for the small endeavor. The investment aspect takes capital, as do most investments.
That said, the biggest problem is not that great coins are hard to find, not that original coins are hard to find...it's that PATIENCE is hard to find. Buy great coins, add patience and you have the recipe. You can't make up the rules to suit your timeframe. That's the key to failed investments.
BUT....BUT....you better LOVE the coins you buy. Otherwise you might as well buy a municipal bond and look at your online statement for kicks.
Stocks are not without their attendant costs, specifically - brokerage and management fees.
As SaintGuru has pointed out previously, both coins and stocks have their cycles.
Global affluence is increasing, and so is the demand for most commodities.
Coins are hard assets; stock values are dependent upon what numbers the President and Board of Directors think that they can slip by the auditors on the Annual Report.
The financial and government establishments, for the most part, are hostile to gold and silver.
We live in interesting times.
I knew it would happen.
<<Diversification limits your upside potential.>>
No. Diversification expands your ability to make money when stocks, bonds or whatever are out of favor. It allows you to always have a poker in the fire. It's a GREAT thing not a hinderance.
I would say that the evil hedge-funds limit upside potential. Just wait until the elmo hits the fan with these unregulated money monoliths. They will underperform and the steak will disappear from under the sizzle. They are the newest "pet rocks".
Diversification....and that's not about buying Buffalo Nickels and $5 Indians!
Now should everyone go out and buy a concentrated portfolio? NO. I agree divesification is a must because all humans are fallable, esprecially when making large bets, so diversification can keep you from blowing your portfolio up....what ever the portfolio consists of be it Stocks, coins or tulips. Earlier in this thread you mentioned you were an investment manager in securities. What is the asset class you work with?
And I believe that my statement regarding the Diversification post is correct.
Yes...you can make more money IN A FAVORABLE market when you are not diversified...but NO smart portfolio manager would subject a client to that risk unless the client insisted. No smart clients, both corporate and individual have asked me to do that for any extended period of timr in 30 years.
The biggest hurdle for an average collector in comparing a coin investment to a more liquid securities type investment is transparency and liquidity which are to giant hurdles if you ask me.
So they say
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>SG, you are right about a Portfolio manager not taking on too much risk and divesification is a powerful tool in managing risk as long as your asset classes are not strongly correlated.
The biggest hurdle for an average collector in comparing a coin investment to a more liquid securities type investment is transparency and liquidity which are to giant hurdles if you ask me. >>
AHHHHHH....now comes the painful part.
the "AVERAGE" collector. Yuo see? This is where the going gets tough. No one started this by saying that. I mentioned numerous times that coins are a solid investment for those with the means to make a significant stand, just as in real estate. For the average collector coins are a wonderful hobby with a likelihood that, if held for a long time, could be profitable.
Note how carefully I measure my words. I live in a highly regulated world, ya know?
Read this if you're interested. The last paragraph is pretty cool.
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2006
S.G., your post regarding diversification is not correct from a technical standpoint. Diversification limits your upside potential. By definition, it also limits portfolio variability (i.e., risk). Portfolio Theory is based upon mathematical reality. However, your overall meaning is correct - in that you cannot make money in any market if you are knocked out of the game in the 3rd inning.
One of the key ingredients in investing is to stay alive, in order to play another day. Having said that, I think that stocks (other than oil) are a fool's game at this juncture. But - having a balanced portfolio of non-correlated assets is the classic approach toward attaining diversification. Diversification does have its benefits. Just my ever-so-humble opinion, of course.
I knew it would happen.
I understand what you speak
i agree with you about well connected ,well finaiced individuals having an advantage in many markets and yes Coins especially, but if coins are only a great investment for a chosen few, most people are much better off being pragmatic and viewing as a great hobby with some investment potential
If I had the means, I would be investing in high quality early gold. I am not talking 1804 $5 proof, but the more affordable (for average deep pockets collector) $5 and $10 coins in AU / MS from that period. If I could afford a 30K coin or two, I would certainly be patient (tks SG) and search this area for a few choice examples.
Sorry. saintguru, couldnt help myself