mint rolls and probabilities

razzle

Anyone have an idea of the probability of getting an MS67 or better in a random roll of Sacs from the mint? 10 rolls? 20 rolls?

Tookybandit

LochNESS

I'm not a mathematician but I don't believe the odds change just because you have more rolls in the equation. I believe the odds of finding one 67 or better in one roll is the same as finding ten 67s or better in ten rolls. It seems like a direct proportion; more rolls equals more yield. I think what you need is a ratio (or %) of Gem BU sacs :: total minted Sacs. The biggest problem I see is that figure doesn't exist. You could try this:

1) take the total number of Sacs submitted to TPGs (pick a single date), and compare to the number of those which graded MS67 or better.

2) take the total number of sacs in a roll, and apply the ratio from Step #1

This won't yield an accurate %, since not all were submitted and we must assume the submitters wouldn't bother sending in the 60-64s. But it's the only method I can think of for finding a % ratio of Sacs 67 and up.

ricko

I suggest you get 20 rolls and perform the experiment....then let us know.... Cheers, RickO

ctf_error_coins

Funny thing is, I search thousands of new rolls of coins for errors and never look for MS 67 + coins.

I have put some really nice MS coins into circulation to be ruined, sorry.

MsMorrisine

I prefer to think in terms of $ amt because I'm lazy

It really is just luck. Some boxes are all rejects, and others yield a few.

I'd say $3000 worth will see one.

LochNESS

<< <i>I have put some really nice MS coins into circulation to be ruined, sorry. >>


Maybe next time you should sell them for a small profit to dealers who specialize in MS versions of those types. There are plenty of folks out there seeking what you toss away. Just because your business doesn't sell them doesn't mean you can't to other businesses. True story: there's a lady in China who runs a multi-billion-dollar business buying American plastic trash, recycling it into new plastic and selling it back to us.

johnny9434

its not worth my time to do that. thats just me thou

ctf_error_coins

<< <i>

<< <i>I have put some really nice MS coins into circulation to be ruined, sorry. >>


Maybe next time you should sell them for a small profit to dealers who specialize in MS versions of those types. There are plenty of folks out there seeking what you toss away. Just because your business doesn't sell them doesn't mean you can't to other businesses. True story: there's a lady in China who runs a multi-billion-dollar business buying American plastic trash, recycling it into new plastic and selling it back to us. >>



Not worth my time as that would add dramatically to my search time. Just helps to keep the pops lower for you all

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>I believe the odds of finding one 67 or better in one roll is the same as finding ten 67s or better in ten rolls. >>

|Maybe in a small sampling of rolls that contain coins that were all minted at the same time but in the long run, I don't think so. It's unlikely you can depend on 67s being evenly distributed among all existing rolls of coins.

Weather11am

<< <i>It's unlikely you can depend on 67s being evenly distributed among all existing rolls of coins. >>



I agree with this, but suppose they are evenly distributed... then the probability would follow a binomial distribution. If the proportion of coins that are MS67+ is q, and you search m coins, the probability of finding x 67+ coins is m!/(x!*(m-x)!)*q^x*(1-q)^(m-x) That assumes that the entire population approaches infitinity otherwise, q would change once one was found or not found

DeepCoin

Wondercoin could probably give you an idea as he and or his minions search rolls for high grade coins or at least they did in the past. Much is about having the eye.