mint rolls and probabilities

I'm not a mathematician but I don't believe the odds change just because you have more rolls in the equation. I believe the odds of finding one 67 or better in one roll is the same as finding ten 67s or better in ten rolls. It seems like a direct proportion; more rolls equals more yield. I think what you need is a ratio (or %) of Gem BU sacs :: total minted Sacs. The biggest problem I see is that figure doesn't exist. You could try this:

1) take the total number of Sacs submitted to TPGs (pick a single date), and compare to the number of those which graded MS67 or better.

2) take the total number of sacs in a roll, and apply the ratio from Step #1

This won't yield an accurate %, since not all were submitted and we must assume the submitters wouldn't bother sending in the 60-64s. But it's the only method I can think of for finding a % ratio of Sacs 67 and up.

<< <i>I have put some really nice MS coins into circulation to be ruined, sorry. >>


Maybe next time you should sell them for a small profit to dealers who specialize in MS versions of those types. There are plenty of folks out there seeking what you toss away. Just because your business doesn't sell them doesn't mean you can't to other businesses. True story: there's a lady in China who runs a multi-billion-dollar business buying American plastic trash, recycling it into new plastic and selling it back to us.