There are a lot of people here who think that this 2003 cent is going to sell for over $30,000.
Here is the acid test for anyone who is capable of rational thinking is, would you pay even a fraction of the amounts kicked around here if this coin were raw? If not then you should rethink your position? "Buy the coin not the label in the plastic holder." ANYONE who pays the kind of dollars that being batted around here is buying that little label that is sealed in plastic, period.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>for those that like this coin two questions >>
I doubt there's really anyone who doesn't like the coin other than a few modern bashers. The question isn't so much whether this is a desirable coin but rather at what price level is it desirable.
Secondly no one who has responded to this thread is apparently willing to step up and bid large amounts for it (I may be wrong). It's possible to desire a rare coin without being able to afford it not buying it even if you're able.
<< <i> would you buy it tp putin your retirement fund for the next ten years?? or your kids college fund for the next ten years? >>
It has generally been agreed here that investing in coins is a risky proposition that is unwise. It's hardly fair to make this a litmus test for this coin but not others. None of us can predict the future in any case to simply assume this will be less valuable or there will be lots more made is as unprof- itable as investing in coins usually is.
<< <i> and if the coin is so great which i am sure it is if the coin was cracked out of its holder right now what would you pay for it?? it is about the coin right?? >>
Like virtually all coins, modern and classic, it is not difficult to sell a raw coin out of its holder for the value of the lowest grade it might be. If it's not damaged taking it out of the holder it would not be difficult to get wholesale price for an MS-69. This price is much lower than what the coin will probably bring but that's only because this particular date isn't scarce in MS-69.
<< <i> also why is there such a hurry by the owner to offer the coin privately even befroe he has the coin in his hot little hands? and why must he sell it so quickly in an auction ?? and why is there so muchy secrecry involved with this coin like the owner and his proxy are really hush hush and all will be revealed aftyer the auction takes place all will be revealed to us mear mortals bowin g down before this god like coin >>
The owner has hardly been secret. He has posted on the registry forum about this find and his good fortune. There is a full page ad in Coin World announcing an upcoming auction for it. No date is listed so details must not be final. The owner is a "small" time collector who simply got lucky.
<< <i> i see many supporters yet they are doing other things then to be able to buy this saintly piece of plastic >>
I'd be interested in obtaining this piece in a trade but it seems highly unlikely I'd be able to outbid any- one. You have better eyes than mine if you're seeing supporters. Most of the responces to the numerous threads on the subject have been highly negative or outright hostile.
<< <i>There are a lot of people here who think that this 2003 cent is going to sell for over $30,000.
Here is the acid test for anyone who is capable of rational thinking is, would you pay even a fraction of the amounts kicked around here if this coin were raw? If not then you should rethink your position. "Buy the coin not the label in the plastic holder." ANYONE who pays the kind of dollars that being batted around here is buying that little label that is sealed in plastic, period. >>
It really doesn't matter what I'd be willing to pay for this in the slab since I won't be buying it. But even out of the slab I can recognize quality and rarity and would cer- tainly be willing to trade accordingly. My trade would be raw coins as well but probably wouldn't total what this coin will bring at auction in the slab. This is because I don't at- tach a lot of extra value to having the very finest but am rather seeking to upgrade. If this coin were in my set I'd be looking to upgrade it as well.
The only thing that makes this coin so special is that it is the highest graded of all Lincoln cents. What value people attach to this status is yet to be seen. If there's only a single bidder willing to stretch for it then it might even go cheap.
<< <i> As the great economist John Maynard Keynes said, "In the long run we are all dead." Yea, this coin could be special enough to rate a really high price 80 or 90 years from now, but that's assumming that there will still be collectors who care, and the coin did not grow a spot in the mean time. This copper coated zinc stuff is even more fragile than bronze. >>
Time is the great equalizer. We'll all be gone in time.
But the 2003 cent could easily get caught up in an advance made by moderns. It's really an ultramodern because things changed in 1999 and people started saving new coins again. As long as a coin not being saved is a defining characteristic of being modern than the distinction should be made. 2003 cents were not heavily saved though like those from the '50's and '60's. Gems aren't tough but if every collector who collects the old Lincolns wanted one in gem there would not be enough to satisfy the demand.
This isn't to say anyone should invest in or even collect 2003 cents but merely an observation that it may not be another century before people start collecting these coins. Already there is growing recognition that many of the coins of the last couple generations are tough and most are tough in high grade.
The zinc coins are extremely fragile but this is largely because there are flaws in the plating of many exam- ples which allow the zinc to begin oxidizing. Older zincolns also have a tendency to spot or tarnish but this problem is mostly solved now apparently. Finding a cent like an '84-D in nice condition is really tough. With nice surfaces as well it's almost impossible.
I'm sure you agree that if people collect what they like and not worry about investment and how the coins will do that they'll have more fun and likely have better returns anyway. Spending as little as possible for coins always comes into play but mostly this is to avoid paying higher than market price. One should keep an eye toward the markets as well to protect his assets and those collecting moderns generally are well aware that prices are more fluid and markets more dynamic. This is largely because in many cases the num- bers of coins selling at a significant premium is much lower than with the classics and demand is much thin- ner. It can also be difficult to establish how scarce a coin really is for most market participants until it has traded for some time. If it proves more common than initially believed or more available than the little demand then prices can plummet. Conversely they soar when coins prove to be much scarcer than initially believed.
While no one should collect moderns they are being collected now and it's improbable this will reverse any- time soon. Even coins that are a few years old might surprise many people who just assume all modern crap is common. I remember suggesting back in 2003 that people should consider setting aside rolls of cents and dimes since these were not readily available anywhere. While no one who did is likely to find any MS-70's some of these coins have already done pretty well.
<< <i>3,300,000,000 minted; that starts with a "B" >>
Yea, but there is only ONE that grades MS-70, at least for now ...
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>3,300,000,000 minted; that starts with a "B" >>
That's a lot of pennies.
The attrition on these is simply staggering. Many people throw their pennies away when they get them. The new coins flow out of the banks like a river while old coins languish in change jars. This means that a greatly disproportionate percentage of pocket change be- ing tossed in the garbage is brand new and recently made cents. The first year of use pro- bably sees nearly a 10% attrition though it drops from there to more closely approximate the same high rate that other cents are being lost and destroyed.
If collector seek just any 2003 cent for their collections it will be centuries until the demand exceeds the available supply. But most collectors seek these in at least choice (MS-63) con- dition. Still the number remaining in this state of preservation is staggering but not so high as many believe. Only about five or ten percent of those in circulation are still unc and many wouldn't be MS-63.
The simple fact is that most of the great collector coins exist only because someone set them aside when they were new. Very few of those coins in circulation will be available to future collectors. Try finding a nice AU '68-S cent for example. This coin isn't so much different than the '03 really but finding one now from any source will prove a significant undertaking. People seem to assume that if a coin is made in sufficiently large quantity then it will be forever com- mon while in actuality it is saving coins that make them common. The '68-P cent can no longer be found in mint sets without carbon spots. Roll coins tend to be lower grade. Other coins like the '84-D or '86 were very lightly saved.
There is actually an inverse correlation between mintage and availability for moderns. It's not a stong correlation but it exists.
"There is actually an inverse correlation between mintage and availability for moderns. It's not a stong correlation but it exists. "
You could say if you do some numbers; that it takes 160,000 submissions for a grade of MS-70. So there should be around another 20,625 MS-70 2003 pennies out there?
You could say if you do some numbers; that it takes 160,000 submissions for a grade of MS-70. So there should be around another 20,625 MS-70 2003 pennies out there? >>
There should be a lot more than 20,000 of them.
The 160,000 number should be for all Lincolns. There probaly aren't even 1,000 '03's graded.
....and in addition, the whole pricing difference between the super grades of 68, 69, and 70 on slabbed modern coins is absolutely rediculous and a huge scam IMO, especially for the ones worth face value in lower grades.
<< <i>....and in addition, the whole pricing difference between the super grades of 68, 69, and 70 on slabbed modern coins is absolutely rediculous and a huge scam IMO, especially for the ones worth face value in lower grades. >>
What about those which don't exist in MS-68, MS-69, or MS-70? Is the big spread in MS-64 and MS-65 indians a rip off as well?
Making blanket statements simply show that one does not know anything about the subject.
The higher up the grading scale you go and the closer to 70 you get, the smaller the visible difference between coins becomes. So the difference between a 69 and a 70 is smaller than that between a 64 and a 65, and when you consider how small the difference is or should be the incremental difference in price logically should be commensurately small. But of course as we all know, coin prices defy logic
<<< What about those which don't exist in MS-68, MS-69, or MS-70? Is the big spread in MS-64 and MS-65 indians a rip off as well?
Making blanket statements simply show that one does not know anything about the subject. >>>
Well I'd like to think I know a LITTLE about the subject. These PCGS slabbed modern ultra grade "wonder coins" are a byproduct of the grading services and saavy marketmakers and dealers in recent years, and for the most part are only legitimized by hype, registry sets, and the inexperienced collectors desire to own supergrade coins regardless of date or denomination. Also the analogy for the Indian cents is a bit off. The price spread is far, far less and they are 100+ yr. old coins that are somewhat scarce in any full red unc. grade. A 2003 penny is worth a penny in most full red unc. grades.
I truly believe the MS-70 cent is not that RARE (or difficult to obtain) unless PCGS announces that they have already graded 100,000,000 (100 hundred millions) of those 2003 cents, and found only ONE perfect coin.
<< <i>Nonetheless, and in spite of cladking's spirited defense, it is a cent which I can obtain in acceptably close to the same preservation, for something like 1 ¢, or very likely, for free. It's an example of splitting hairs to a degree that seems extremely unwise, on the part of a potential buyer. >>
Yea, verily.
The current trend is to micrograde. Who knows if collectors of the future will grade with microscopes or just look at the coin with the naked eye. If it's difficult to judge the difference with the naked eye, collectors of the future may not care if a company called PCGS once deemed it "MS70". How long will grade rarity be the flavor of the day? Inquiring minds want to know.
Well I'd like to think I know a LITTLE about the subject. These PCGS slabbed modern ultra grade "wonder coins" are a byproduct of the grading services and saavy marketmakers and dealers in recent years,... >>
High grade moderns have been getting a little attention since about 1968 when RS Yeomen said that they are sleepers that are being ignored to the detriment of the coins and the hobby. Even John J Pittman was said to have put aside choice rolls each year from the beginning. Since these didn't show up in the three part auction of his coins one is left to speculate that they are still in the hands of the family. High grade Ikes were bringing high prices as far back as 1978 and the first Ike book was in print in 1986 before the launch of the first TPG.
<< <i> ...and for the most part are only legitimized by hype, registry sets, ... >>
There is virtually no hype in moderns. One can find reems of hype for classic coins but finding any for moderns is something of a challenge. If you don't believe it then just pick up almost any issue of almost any of the coin papers. Most mentions of moderns are to slam them rather than hype them. The registries didn't even allow any modernb coins un- til quite recently and then it was the result of public demand rather than some sort of cra- zy marketing scheme.
<< <i> ...and the inexperienced collectors desire to own supergrade coins regardless of date or denomination. >>
You'll find very few collectors who seek the worst example of a coin whether newbie or oldtimer. And, yes, if you collect something like clad dimes then you want one of each date. Most modern collectors also want one of each mintmark and variety as well. While relatively few are collecting the supergrades I doubt if any would pass on one if available at a good price.
<< <i>Also the analogy for the Indian cents is a bit off. The price spread is far, far less and they are 100+ yr. old coins that are somewhat scarce in any full red unc. grade. A 2003 penny is worth a penny in most full red unc. grades. >>
No. The price spread is about a factor of ten. This is because supply and demand cause this spread. The implication is that the undergrades are significantly more common than the gems. This is exactly the same situation with the moderns except the spread is some- times less on the moderns. The implication is that sometimes the undergrades in moderns are relatively common. Where the spread is large it's because the higher grades are tough.
<< <i>I truly believe the MS-70 cent is not that RARE (or difficult to obtain) unless PCGS announces that they have already graded 100,000,000 (100 hundred millions) of those 2003 cents, and found only ONE perfect coin. >>
Surprisingly this would not convince me. If they graded a random sample of 2003 cents and found none then that would be convincing. But most moderns are released in "bunches". Just as almost all the WI extra leaf coins turned up in AZ, almost all the MS-70 Lincolns might have been released in California or in mint sets that went to New England.
There are many hundreds of collectors and dealers sampling coins from all over the country and sending in the best they find. While there may well be more out there and they might not even be rare, the simple fact is the possibility of more turning up is going down rather than up. This, of course, excludes the very real possibility that there could be some found in a batch somewhere.
Nonsense. Witness PCGS posting the grading of the 2003 MS70 and the various discussion of the coming Teletrade auction, not to mention the headlines concering the five figure price brought by that MS70 Gold Eagle a little while ago. And then again there are the posts on this forum about "rare" coins that most of us have been feeding into parking meters and tossing to winos, as well as the "analysis" about the depletion of mint sets, some of which by a certain board members estimates have dwindled down to a mere 300,000 sets -- oh my!
Nonsense. Witness PCGS posting the grading of the 2003 MS70 and the various discussion of the coming Teletrade auction, not to mention the headlines concering the five figure price brought by that MS70 Gold Eagle a little while ago. And then again there are the posts on this forum about "rare" coins that most of us have been feeding into parking meters and tossing to winos, as well as the "analysis" about the depletion of mint sets, some of which by a certain board members estimates have dwindled down to a mere 300,000 sets -- oh my!
CG >>
Hey the number of survivors is just an educated guess. If I'm wrong it won't be the first time. Take it for what it's worth and I'm always interested in any opinions on the subject.
There may be some hyperbole in some of the comments posted by the user to whom you're referring, but maybe he feels he can get away with it because no one seems to be able to refute it. I have a strong suspicion that he's usually in the ball park anyway.
I don't understand how this coin is being "hyped" in any way. If it were a 1919 or a 1931-S in MS-70 would the advertising for it be any different?
I said "over 30k" but I also think this whole thing is stupid. My prediction is $60,000 plus whatever juice teletrade has.
Here's an interesting related question, which I probably should start a new thread for: if coins were graded descriptively and not numerically, would the same grade/price relations we see still hold?
Advanced collector of BREWERIANA. Early beer advertising (beer cans, tap knobs, foam scrapers, trays, tin signs, lithos, paper, etc)....My first love...U.S. COINS!
This is not a rare coin. There is a sucker born every minute.
Advanced collector of BREWERIANA. Early beer advertising (beer cans, tap knobs, foam scrapers, trays, tin signs, lithos, paper, etc)....My first love...U.S. COINS!
<< <i>I wonder what Legend (Laura VELVEETA Sperber) will say about this coin.
Can someone get her to comment ?
Stewart >>
since when did you need confirmation before "pulling the trigger"
Vegas would probably give 9:5 odds at this ending up in the Blay collection.
Question I have is how far are the major registry players willing to go to remain at the top of the heap. If the registry game were to go bellyup, you would have a 14.01 linc (14 grading + .01)????
I think michael pinned it best. Good luck to the buyer.
<< <i>I wonder what Legend (Laura VELVEETA Sperber) will say about this coin.
Can someone get her to comment ?
Stewart >>
since when did you need confirmation before "pulling the trigger"
Vegas would probably give 9:5 odds at this ending up in the Blay collection.
Question I have is how far are the major registry players willing to go to remain at the top of the heap. If the registry game were to go bellyup, you would have a 14.01 linc (14 grading + .01)????
I think michael pinned it best. Good luck to the buyer. >>
It's remarkable that someone posts a 1914 NCLT issue and no one has a bad word to say about it. It is just seen as a great coin that any real collector would be proud to own. But let someone post about a coin from 2003 and it simply doesn't matter anymore what the lower grades are worth or how many might bid on the coin at auction, all that matters is that it's a piece of crap and anyone who buys it is insane.
Oh sure you'll hear all kinds of garbage about how wise it is to trust grading companies and what it's worth raw (like anyone's gonna crack it out and resubmit it ), but what it really comes down to is that it's modern crap and nothing can ever change that. I can imagine the excitement and applause were a 1909 cent graded MS-70 but a 2003 is like putting make-up on a pig.
Everyone knows how I feel about "Modern Rarities", which is a contradiction terms, but I am NOT going to bash this coin or the buyer. I understand there are people with deep pockets who want the best. I just don't understand why they would pick a modern coin where there could be more in this grade since there are billions of these. I know there are not many potential MS70 coins of any denom. if any. But the possibility is still there. And when the same coin in 69 would be worth what $100 or less, I just don't get it.
Bottom line is this is not a rare coin, but is a rare grade. And I would much rather have a rare coin. But that is me and the person who bought this coin wanted the grade and had the money to do it. If he is happy with his coins and I am happy with mine, well then everybody is happy.
<< <i>Bottom line is this is not a rare coin, but is a rare grade. And I would much rather have a rare coin. But that is me and the person who bought this coin wanted the grade and had the money to do it. If he is happy with his coins and I am happy with mine, well then everybody is happy. >>
Agreed. Personally I'm happy that someone with this much money is pursuing coins I'm not interested in. There's already enough deep pockets and demand for the coins I want -- we don't need more competition!
The key here is "flawless under 5X magnification." What if it's not flawless under 10X or 15X? Is it still MS70? What if there is a better one that is flawless to 10X while this one isn't? Are they both worth the same? What if another MS69 is flawless under 5X but not under 10X? Is that MS70 but only in the wrong holder?
The argument applies to all coins, not just moderns.
I am sure many of the MS69's are just as nice. The PCGS graders had given 3 of the 2003's a MS70 grade, but only one got by the finalizer. While it may be the holy grail to some, I can think of hundreds of other Lincoln's I would much rather own.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
I would say with the trillions of Lincoln cents that have been struck for circulation over the years and ony one having been certified MS70 by PCGS, $13,000 seems like a bargain for the greatest conditional rarity Lincoln cent known to exist. Especially when you consider other coins with a much smaller mintage, like Presidential dollars bring thousands for top poulation examples with over 10 known.
Never teach a pig to sing. You'll waste your time and annoy the pig
Is a coin, with 100+ graded a single arbitrary "point" below it, not counting those at the same grade or a single arbitrary point below it at other grading companies, not even counting the extremely vast majority which have never been slabbed or even had owners which even thought about it, in any meaningful sense a condition rarity?
<< <i>Is a coin, with 100+ graded a single arbitrary "point" below it, not counting those at the same grade or a single arbitrary point below it at other grading companies, not even counting the extremely vast majority which have never been slabbed or even had owners which even thought about it, in any meaningful sense a condition rarity?
I think you know my answer already. >>
With the price difference between conditional rarities in other series, which can be six figures in some cases for a single grade less, I would say not at all.
Never teach a pig to sing. You'll waste your time and annoy the pig
Comments
Strange how that's exactly what I was thinking.......
Here is the acid test for anyone who is capable of rational thinking is, would you pay even a fraction of the amounts kicked around here if this coin were raw? If not then you should rethink your position? "Buy the coin not the label in the plastic holder." ANYONE who pays the kind of dollars that being batted around here is buying that little label that is sealed in plastic, period.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>for those that like this coin two questions >>
I doubt there's really anyone who doesn't like the coin other than a few modern bashers. The
question isn't so much whether this is a desirable coin but rather at what price level is it desirable.
Secondly no one who has responded to this thread is apparently willing to step up and bid large
amounts for it (I may be wrong). It's possible to desire a rare coin without being able to afford it
not buying it even if you're able.
<< <i>
would you buy it tp putin your retirement fund for the next ten years?? or your kids college fund for the next ten years? >>
It has generally been agreed here that investing in coins is a risky proposition that is unwise. It's
hardly fair to make this a litmus test for this coin but not others. None of us can predict the future
in any case to simply assume this will be less valuable or there will be lots more made is as unprof-
itable as investing in coins usually is.
<< <i>
and if the coin is so great which i am sure it is if the coin was cracked out of its holder right now what would you pay for it?? it is about the coin right?? >>
Like virtually all coins, modern and classic, it is not difficult to sell a raw coin out of its holder for the
value of the lowest grade it might be. If it's not damaged taking it out of the holder it would not be
difficult to get wholesale price for an MS-69. This price is much lower than what the coin will probably
bring but that's only because this particular date isn't scarce in MS-69.
<< <i>
also why is there such a hurry by the owner to offer the coin privately even befroe he has the coin in his hot little hands? and why must he sell it so quickly in an auction ?? and why is there so muchy secrecry involved with this coin like the owner and his proxy are really hush hush and all will be revealed aftyer the auction takes place
The owner has hardly been secret. He has posted on the registry forum about this find and his good
fortune. There is a full page ad in Coin World announcing an upcoming auction for it. No date is listed
so details must not be final. The owner is a "small" time collector who simply got lucky.
<< <i>
i see many supporters yet they are doing other things then to be able to buy this saintly piece of plastic
I'd be interested in obtaining this piece in a trade but it seems highly unlikely I'd be able to outbid any-
one. You have better eyes than mine if you're seeing supporters. Most of the responces to the numerous
threads on the subject have been highly negative or outright hostile.
<< <i>There are a lot of people here who think that this 2003 cent is going to sell for over $30,000.
Here is the acid test for anyone who is capable of rational thinking is, would you pay even a fraction of the amounts kicked around here if this coin were raw? If not then you should rethink your position. "Buy the coin not the label in the plastic holder." ANYONE who pays the kind of dollars that being batted around here is buying that little label that is sealed in plastic, period. >>
It really doesn't matter what I'd be willing to pay for this in the slab since I won't be
buying it. But even out of the slab I can recognize quality and rarity and would cer-
tainly be willing to trade accordingly. My trade would be raw coins as well but probably
wouldn't total what this coin will bring at auction in the slab. This is because I don't at-
tach a lot of extra value to having the very finest but am rather seeking to upgrade. If
this coin were in my set I'd be looking to upgrade it as well.
The only thing that makes this coin so special is that it is the highest graded of all Lincoln
cents. What value people attach to this status is yet to be seen. If there's only a single
bidder willing to stretch for it then it might even go cheap.
<< <i>
As the great economist John Maynard Keynes said, "In the long run we are all dead." Yea, this coin could be special enough to rate a really high price 80 or 90 years from now, but that's assumming that there will still be collectors who care, and the coin did not grow a spot in the mean time. This copper coated zinc stuff is even more fragile than bronze.
Time is the great equalizer. We'll all be gone in time.
But the 2003 cent could easily get caught up in an advance made by moderns. It's really an ultramodern
because things changed in 1999 and people started saving new coins again. As long as a coin not being
saved is a defining characteristic of being modern than the distinction should be made. 2003 cents were
not heavily saved though like those from the '50's and '60's. Gems aren't tough but if every collector who
collects the old Lincolns wanted one in gem there would not be enough to satisfy the demand.
This isn't to say anyone should invest in or even collect 2003 cents but merely an observation that it may
not be another century before people start collecting these coins. Already there is growing recognition that
many of the coins of the last couple generations are tough and most are tough in high grade.
The zinc coins are extremely fragile but this is largely because there are flaws in the plating of many exam-
ples which allow the zinc to begin oxidizing. Older zincolns also have a tendency to spot or tarnish but this
problem is mostly solved now apparently. Finding a cent like an '84-D in nice condition is really tough. With
nice surfaces as well it's almost impossible.
I'm sure you agree that if people collect what they like and not worry about investment and how the coins
will do that they'll have more fun and likely have better returns anyway. Spending as little as possible for
coins always comes into play but mostly this is to avoid paying higher than market price. One should keep
an eye toward the markets as well to protect his assets and those collecting moderns generally are well
aware that prices are more fluid and markets more dynamic. This is largely because in many cases the num-
bers of coins selling at a significant premium is much lower than with the classics and demand is much thin-
ner. It can also be difficult to establish how scarce a coin really is for most market participants until it has
traded for some time. If it proves more common than initially believed or more available than the little demand
then prices can plummet. Conversely they soar when coins prove to be much scarcer than initially believed.
While no one should collect moderns they are being collected now and it's improbable this will reverse any-
time soon. Even coins that are a few years old might surprise many people who just assume all modern
crap is common. I remember suggesting back in 2003 that people should consider setting aside rolls of
cents and dimes since these were not readily available anywhere. While no one who did is likely to find
any MS-70's some of these coins have already done pretty well.
<< <i>3,300,000,000 minted; that starts with a "B"
Yea, but there is only ONE that grades MS-70,
<< <i>3,300,000,000 minted; that starts with a "B"
That's a lot of pennies.
The attrition on these is simply staggering. Many people throw their pennies away when
they get them. The new coins flow out of the banks like a river while old coins languish in
change jars. This means that a greatly disproportionate percentage of pocket change be-
ing tossed in the garbage is brand new and recently made cents. The first year of use pro-
bably sees nearly a 10% attrition though it drops from there to more closely approximate
the same high rate that other cents are being lost and destroyed.
If collector seek just any 2003 cent for their collections it will be centuries until the demand
exceeds the available supply. But most collectors seek these in at least choice (MS-63) con-
dition. Still the number remaining in this state of preservation is staggering but not so high
as many believe. Only about five or ten percent of those in circulation are still unc and many
wouldn't be MS-63.
The simple fact is that most of the great collector coins exist only because someone set them
aside when they were new. Very few of those coins in circulation will be available to future
collectors. Try finding a nice AU '68-S cent for example. This coin isn't so much different than
the '03 really but finding one now from any source will prove a significant undertaking. People
seem to assume that if a coin is made in sufficiently large quantity then it will be forever com-
mon while in actuality it is saving coins that make them common. The '68-P cent can no longer
be found in mint sets without carbon spots. Roll coins tend to be lower grade. Other coins
like the '84-D or '86 were very lightly saved.
There is actually an inverse correlation between mintage and availability for moderns. It's not
a stong correlation but it exists.
"There is actually an inverse correlation between mintage and availability for moderns. It's not
a stong correlation but it exists. "
You could say if you do some numbers; that it takes 160,000 submissions for a grade of MS-70. So there should be around another 20,625 MS-70 2003 pennies out there?
<< <i>
You could say if you do some numbers; that it takes 160,000 submissions for a grade of MS-70. So there should be around another 20,625 MS-70 2003 pennies out there? >>
There should be a lot more than 20,000 of them.
The 160,000 number should be for all Lincolns. There probaly aren't even 1,000 '03's graded.
<< <i>Does anybody her have and explanation from PCGS why this 2003 pennies deserves the MS-70 grade? If so please point me in the right direction. >>
They say there are no flaws even under 5x magnification. If you've spent time looking at circulating coins you'll know how remarkable this really is.
I hope PCGS makes 2 more of them the day after the winning bidder pays the auction invoice for it.
<< <i>....and in addition, the whole pricing difference between the super grades of 68, 69, and 70 on slabbed modern coins is absolutely rediculous and a huge scam IMO, especially for the ones worth face value in lower grades. >>
What about those which don't exist in MS-68, MS-69, or MS-70? Is the big spread in MS-64
and MS-65 indians a rip off as well?
Making blanket statements simply show that one does not know anything about the subject.
CG
and MS-65 indians a rip off as well?
Making blanket statements simply show that one does not know anything about the subject. >>>
Well I'd like to think I know a LITTLE about the subject. These PCGS slabbed modern ultra grade "wonder coins" are a byproduct of the grading services and saavy marketmakers and dealers in recent years, and for the most part are only legitimized by hype, registry sets, and the inexperienced collectors desire to own supergrade coins regardless of date or denomination. Also the analogy for the Indian cents is a bit off. The price spread is far, far less and they are 100+ yr. old coins that are somewhat scarce in any full red unc. grade. A 2003 penny is worth a penny in most full red unc. grades.
<< <i>Nonetheless, and in spite of cladking's spirited defense, it is a cent which I can obtain in acceptably close to the same preservation, for something like 1 ¢, or very likely, for free. It's an example of splitting hairs to a degree that seems extremely unwise, on the part of a potential buyer. >>
Yea, verily.
The current trend is to micrograde. Who knows if collectors of the future will grade with microscopes or just look at the coin with the naked eye. If it's difficult to judge the difference with the naked eye, collectors of the future may not care if a company called PCGS once deemed it "MS70". How long will grade rarity be the flavor of the day? Inquiring minds want to know.
Obscurum per obscurius
<< <i>
Well I'd like to think I know a LITTLE about the subject. These PCGS slabbed modern ultra grade "wonder coins" are a byproduct of the grading services and saavy marketmakers and dealers in recent years,... >>
High grade moderns have been getting a little attention since about 1968 when
RS Yeomen said that they are sleepers that are being ignored to the detriment
of the coins and the hobby. Even John J Pittman was said to have put aside choice
rolls each year from the beginning. Since these didn't show up in the three part auction
of his coins one is left to speculate that they are still in the hands of the family. High grade
Ikes were bringing high prices as far back as 1978 and the first Ike book was in print in
1986 before the launch of the first TPG.
<< <i>
...and for the most part are only legitimized by hype, registry sets, ... >>
There is virtually no hype in moderns. One can find reems of hype for classic coins but
finding any for moderns is something of a challenge. If you don't believe it then just pick
up almost any issue of almost any of the coin papers. Most mentions of moderns are to
slam them rather than hype them. The registries didn't even allow any modernb coins un-
til quite recently and then it was the result of public demand rather than some sort of cra-
zy marketing scheme.
<< <i>
...and the inexperienced collectors desire to own supergrade coins regardless of date or denomination. >>
You'll find very few collectors who seek the worst example of a coin whether newbie or
oldtimer. And, yes, if you collect something like clad dimes then you want one of each
date. Most modern collectors also want one of each mintmark and variety as well. While
relatively few are collecting the supergrades I doubt if any would pass on one if available
at a good price.
<< <i>Also the analogy for the Indian cents is a bit off. The price spread is far, far less and they are 100+ yr. old coins that are somewhat scarce in any full red unc. grade. A 2003 penny is worth a penny in most full red unc. grades. >>
No. The price spread is about a factor of ten. This is because supply and demand cause
this spread. The implication is that the undergrades are significantly more common than
the gems. This is exactly the same situation with the moderns except the spread is some-
times less on the moderns. The implication is that sometimes the undergrades in moderns
are relatively common. Where the spread is large it's because the higher grades are tough.
<< <i>I truly believe the MS-70 cent is not that RARE (or difficult to obtain) unless PCGS announces that they have already graded 100,000,000 (100 hundred millions) of those 2003 cents, and found only ONE perfect coin. >>
Surprisingly this would not convince me. If they graded a random sample of
2003 cents and found none then that would be convincing. But most moderns
are released in "bunches". Just as almost all the WI extra leaf coins turned up
in AZ, almost all the MS-70 Lincolns might have been released in California or
in mint sets that went to New England.
There are many hundreds of collectors and dealers sampling coins from all over
the country and sending in the best they find. While there may well be more
out there and they might not even be rare, the simple fact is the possibility of
more turning up is going down rather than up. This, of course, excludes the very
real possibility that there could be some found in a batch somewhere.
$17,950
<< <i>There is virtually no hype in moderns >>
Nonsense. Witness PCGS posting the grading of the 2003 MS70 and the various discussion of the coming Teletrade auction, not to mention the headlines concering the five figure price brought by that MS70 Gold Eagle a little while ago. And then again there are the posts on this forum about "rare" coins that most of us have been feeding into parking meters and tossing to winos, as well as the "analysis" about the depletion of mint sets, some of which by a certain board members estimates have dwindled down to a mere 300,000 sets -- oh my!
CG
<< <i>
<< <i>There is virtually no hype in moderns >>
Nonsense. Witness PCGS posting the grading of the 2003 MS70 and the various discussion of the coming Teletrade auction, not to mention the headlines concering the five figure price brought by that MS70 Gold Eagle a little while ago. And then again there are the posts on this forum about "rare" coins that most of us have been feeding into parking meters and tossing to winos, as well as the "analysis" about the depletion of mint sets, some of which by a certain board members estimates have dwindled down to a mere 300,000 sets -- oh my!
CG >>
Hey the number of survivors is just an educated guess. If I'm wrong it won't be the
first time. Take it for what it's worth and I'm always interested in any opinions on the
subject.
There may be some hyperbole in some of the comments posted by the user to whom
you're referring, but maybe he feels he can get away with it because no one seems to
be able to refute it. I have a strong suspicion that he's usually in the ball park anyway.
I don't understand how this coin is being "hyped" in any way. If it were a 1919 or a
1931-S in MS-70 would the advertising for it be any different?
Here's an interesting related question, which I probably should start a new thread for: if coins were graded descriptively and not numerically, would the same grade/price relations we see still hold?
Ed. S.
(EJS)
POB 854
Temecula CA 92593
310-710-2869 cell
www.LSRarecoins.com
Larry@LSRarecoins.com
<< <i>
<< <i>Ask Russel, he would have the most accurate estimate. Russel is an expert on any matter. >>
Are you a moron in real life, or do you just play one at an internet forum?
Russ, NCNE >>
that was funny. and here I thought a new pair of lips had signed on.
as for estimate on hammer, at 13K its already surpassed what I thought to be "idiot level" IMHO
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
<< <i>I wonder what Legend (Laura VELVEETA Sperber) will say about this coin.
Can someone get her to comment ?
Stewart >>
since when did you need confirmation before "pulling the trigger"
Vegas would probably give 9:5 odds at this ending up in the Blay collection.
Question I have is how far are the major registry players willing to go to remain at the top of the heap. If the registry game were to go bellyup, you would have a 14.01 linc (14 grading + .01)????
I think michael pinned it best. Good luck to the buyer.
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
<< <i>
<< <i>I wonder what Legend (Laura VELVEETA Sperber) will say about this coin.
Can someone get her to comment ?
Stewart >>
since when did you need confirmation before "pulling the trigger"
Vegas would probably give 9:5 odds at this ending up in the Blay collection.
Question I have is how far are the major registry players willing to go to remain at the top of the heap. If the registry game were to go bellyup, you would have a 14.01 linc (14 grading + .01)????
I think michael pinned it best. Good luck to the buyer. >>
It's remarkable that someone posts a 1914 NCLT issue and no one has a bad word to
say about it. It is just seen as a great coin that any real collector would be proud to own.
But let someone post about a coin from 2003 and it simply doesn't matter anymore what
the lower grades are worth or how many might bid on the coin at auction, all that matters
is that it's a piece of crap and anyone who buys it is insane.
Oh sure you'll hear all kinds of garbage about how wise it is to trust grading companies and
what it's worth raw (like anyone's gonna crack it out and resubmit it
comes down to is that it's modern crap and nothing can ever change that. I can imagine the
excitement and applause were a 1909 cent graded MS-70 but a 2003 is like putting make-up
on a pig.
excitement and applause were a 1909 cent graded MS-70 but a 2003 is like putting make-up
on a pig. >>>
I'd take the pig
Sorry clad, couldn't help mysef
<< <i>
I'd take the pig
Sorry clad, couldn't help mysef >>
Careful. The make-up comes with it.
Bottom line is this is not a rare coin, but is a rare grade. And I would much rather have a rare coin. But that is me and the person who bought this coin wanted the grade and had the money to do it. If he is happy with his coins and I am happy with mine, well then everybody is happy.
JMHO
Jon
<< <i>Bottom line is this is not a rare coin, but is a rare grade. And I would much rather have a rare coin. But that is me and the person who bought this coin wanted the grade and had the money to do it. If he is happy with his coins and I am happy with mine, well then everybody is happy. >>
Agreed. Personally I'm happy that someone with this much money is pursuing coins I'm not interested in. There's already enough deep pockets and demand for the coins I want -- we don't need more competition!
The argument applies to all coins, not just moderns.
roadrunner
<< <i>With over a year gone bye and no more MS70 Lincoln's having been found did the buyer get a bargain on a one-of-a-kind piece? >>
furthest thing from my mind. Since you brought it up, what do you think?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
I think you know my answer already.
Ed. S.
(EJS)
<< <i>Is a coin, with 100+ graded a single arbitrary "point" below it, not counting those at the same grade or a single arbitrary point below it at other grading companies, not even counting the extremely vast majority which have never been slabbed or even had owners which even thought about it, in any meaningful sense a condition rarity?
I think you know my answer already. >>
With the price difference between conditional rarities in other series, which can be six figures in some cases for a single grade less, I would say not at all.