HUGE confession .... after the '85 rip I couldn't take it anymore --- proceeded to bust all the rest of my packs. I became so discouraged with the results that I got lazy about posting/scanning.
My guilt has brought me back ....
Plus, I got some cool cards ... just b/c there's not Marino or Montana RC doesn't mean it was a good bust ... and it's been great fun regardless....
Here are the '84's....
Rest of pack: - Raul Allegre, K, Colts - Linden King, OLB, Chargers - Donnie Shell, S, Steelers - Roosevelt Leaks, RB, Bills - Barney Chavous, DE, Broncos - Instant Reply, William Andrews - Jeff Van Note, C, Falcons - Jerry Robinson, ILB, Eagles - Ben Williams, DE, Bills - Andra Franklin, RB, Dolphins - Chuck Muncie, RB, Chargers
NOTE: I have gotten Todd Christenson in at least 3 different packs now -- I am SO tired of seeing that terrible hairdo!
second NOTE: I guess, techincally, I did get a Marino RC ... just not THE Marino RC
-t
- Building these sets: ------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ ------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
What are the odds? Only one single pack from each year, get the same rushing leaders card and both years the same two players happen to be rushing leaders...
WEIRD!!!!!
-t
- Building these sets: ------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ ------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
Rest of pack: - Bill Kenney, QB, Chiefs - Al Richardson, OLB, Falcons - Reggie Williams, OLB, Bengals - Freddie Solomon, WR, 49ers - Eric Harris, CB, Chiefs - Tom Skladany, P, Lions - Greg Coleman, P, Vikings - Harvey Martin, DE, Cowboys - Everson Walls, CB, Cowboys (gum almost penetrated card)
I would have LOVED this pack (big fan of both Singletary and Largent) but unfortunately this pack must have sat in the Vegas desert during August b/c my gum had glued 4 or so of the cards together and nearly every card was warped. I'm trying to "flatten" the Singletary and Largent but we'll see. My Everson Walls RC was completely ruined.
-t
- Building these sets: ------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ ------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
1984 Topps Pack 13 Ray Donaldson 33 Charles Alexander 37 Cris Collinsworth 40 Eddie Edwards 135 Bob Cryder 142 Mosi Tatupu 153 Lance Mehl 233 Matt Suhey 268 John Jefferson 275 Jan Stenerud 317 Mark Haynes 321 Lawrence Taylor 345 Neil Lomax 349 San Francisco 49ers Team Leaders 354 Fred Dean
1983 Topps Pack 25 Gerald Riggs 41 Otis Wilson 53 Ron Springs 133 Lawrence Taylor 170 Jeff Moore 187 Jeff Bostic 206 NFL Interception Leaders 316 Don McNeal 346 Joe Klecko 368 Mike Webster 375 Tim Fox 378 Louie Kelcher 387 Michael Jackson Walter Payton Sticker
Registry Sets: T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up 1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up 1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up 1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up 1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up 1981 Topps FB PSA 10 1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up 1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10 3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
I had never opened a pack of '82s...not bad looking cards, but I didn't get much. At least I got a "sweetness" IA card, although it had a corner ding.
The rest of the pack goes like this....
Steve Watson - WR Broncos All Pro (wax stain on front, actually pieces of wax pack all on the card!) Football Brothers - Lyle & Glenn Blackwood Billy Jackson - RB Chiefs Dennis Harrison -DE Eagles Mark Brammer - TE Bills Greg Stemrick - CB Oilers Billy Campfield - RB Eagles Sticker - NFC Championship Game Mark Mullaney - DE Vikings Paul Coffman - TE Packers John Hannah - In Action Patriots John Bunting - OLB Eagles Greg Pruitt - RB Browns Hugh Green - OLB Buccaneers
* '72 BASEBALL #15 100% * C. PASCUAL BASIC #3 * T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100% * L. TIANT BASIC #1 * DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100% * MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3 * PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1 * '65 DISNEYLAND #2 * '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6 * '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
22 Mark Brammer 90 Steve Watson 92 Houston Oilers TL 106 Greg Stemrick 118 Billy Jackson 158 Steve Nelson 172 Joe Klecko IA 264 Lyle & Glenn Blackwood Football Brothers 274 Steve Bartkowski 350 Billy Simms IA 446 Dennis Harrison 468 Ken Greene 491 Jack Reynolds 509 Washington Redskins TL 510 Perry Brooks 73 George Rogers Sticker
Not much. Ditto on the Klecko IA from Arny V's post.
Scott
Registry Sets: T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up 1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up 1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up 1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up 1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up 1981 Topps FB PSA 10 1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up 1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10 3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
not much in my 82 topps pack but had to scan the Lavender card....don't you just love those shades!! Here's who else I got in addition to Kenny Anderson, who happened to be one fine quarterback in his day.....
George Roberts Billy Taylor Donnie Shell Dave Butz Dave Jennings Bob Parsons Packers team leaders Gordon JOnes Charger team leaders Randy Holloway NFL scoring leaders - Murray Lions and Smith Patriots Charles Alexander Robert Brazele
Before anyone jumps on me......I'm a football dummy tonight.....Obviously the last message described my great 1981 TOPPS PACK!!!! So I had to open another one....my bad...here are scans of ALL of the cards from the 82 pack...the real 82 pack!!!! And now I'm really tempted to break open my one lonely 80 Topps pack that is left......
Here we go: Good player selection but almost every card OC to the left. Happy with the pulls anyway.
1982 Topps Pack 1
320 Harvey Martin - Cowboys 34 Bill Simpson - Bills 433 Phil Simms Giants 319 James Jones - Cowboys 155 Andy Johnson - Patriots 474 Neil O'Donoghue - Cardinals 519 Lemar Parrish - Redskins Sticker 221 Dan Fouts - Chargers 172 Joe Klecko IA - Jets 446 Dennis Harrison - Eagles 22 Mark Brammer - Bills 269 Football bros. Eddie & Walter Payton 197 Derrick Ramsey - Raiders 250 Steve Largent IA - Seahawks 503 Cecil Johnson - Buccaneers 350 Billy Simms IA - Lions
1982 Topps Pack 2
389 Vikings Team Leaders 213 Jack Lambert - Steelers 192 Derrick Jensen - Raiders 511 Dave Butz - Redskins 6 Dan Ross RB - Bengals 244 Theotis Brown - Seahawks 437 Eagles Team Leaders 356 George Cumby - Packers Sticker 159 John Hannah - Patriots 396 Eddie Payton - Vikings 364 James Lofton - Packers 128 Jimmy Cefalo - Dolphins 221 David Trout - Steelers 312 Tony Dorsett IA - Cowboys 528 Checklist 397-528 249 Steve Largent - Seahawks
I have also never opened a pack of '82s. It was fun. The in action cards in this set are really nice -- you really didn't see much like this in the 80's.
Here are my cards: 264 Lyle and Glenn Blackwood 90 Steve Watson - Broncos 350 Billy Sims IA - Lions 503 Cecil Johnson - Bucs 250 Steve Largent IA - Seahawks (Not a great action shot) 197 Derrick Ramsey - Raiders 269 Eddie and Walter Payton Sticker #160 - Anthony Munoz 284 Mike Kenn - Falcons 223 Chargers team card 1 Ken Anderson Super Bowl pass completion record 137 Tommy Vigorito - Dolphins 5 George Rogers rookie rushing record - Saints 243 Seahawks Team card 29 Jim Haslett - Bills 263 Chris and Matt Bahr
I think this is a really good looking set for the '80s. Most of my cards were off center T/B, but it was fun looking at them.
<< <i>I had never opened a pack of '82s...not bad looking cards, but I didn't get much. At least I got a "sweetness" IA card, although it had a corner ding.
>>
That is my ALL TIME favorite Payton card.
I have posted it in a couple of threads as my favorite card. It is just vintage Sweetness.
Look at #59 on the Bucs, just sitting down and watching the Sweetness show.
Fun rip, but I when my best "card" is a sticker, that's not a good sign!
I did get several "In Action" shots -- which I agree do look really cool. And, another Everson Walls (the true RC), again spoiled by WAX!
Here is the complete pull: - Anthony Munoz *sticker* - Ozzie Newsome IN ACTION - Football Brothers - Archie & Ray Griffin - Everson Walls, CB, Cowboys - JT Smith, WR, Chiefs - Bob Chandler, QB, Raiders - Mark Moseley, K, Redskins - James Wilder, RB, Bucs (RC) - Brad Van Pelt, OLB, Giants - Noah Jackson, G, Bears - Reggie Williams, OLB, Bengals - Monte Jackson, CB, Raiders - Clarence Scott, S, Browns - Reese McCall, TE, Colts - Alfred Jenkins IN ACTION - Kevin House IN ACTION
-t
- Building these sets: ------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ ------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
I'm a couple of hours early, but here are my 81 cards before I forget. The centering was off on many cards, but it is hard to not like a Walter Payton card. Joe Ferguson is a bit of a local hero because he used to coach here.
OK, time for me to catch up with the football rips. Work has left me dead-tired the past few weeks with all the OT. Time to loosen up me AND some wax!
Here are the results of my '83 pack (oops!):
301 Lester Hayes AFC Pro Bowl (Raiders CB) 363 Jack Lambert AFC Pro Bowl (Steelers ILB) 111 Bruce Clark (Saints DE) 154 Carl Birdsong (Cardinals P) 103 Doug Martin (Vikings DE) 282 KC Chiefs Team Leaders (Joe Delaney 380 yds rushing?!) 114 Jeff Groth (Saints WR) Sticker William Andrews (Falcons RB) 315 Bob Kuechenberg AFC Pro Bowl (Dolphins G) 338 NY Jets Team Leaders (Freeman McNeil, 786 yds rushing) 137 Harold Carmichael (Eagles WR) 140 Carl Hairston (Eagles DE) 132 Johnny Perkins (Giants WR) 260 Denver Broncos Team Leaders (Gerald Willhite, 347 yds rushing??!! -- and a gum stain bleeding through from back to front )
And on to the '82s! The year I graduated from Colorado State U...
Sticker #144 Lawrence Taylor 399 Joe Senser IA (Vikings) 109 KC Chiefs 1981 Team Leaders (Delaney/Harris/Smith/Kremer) 113 Joe Delaney IA (Chiefs) 192 Derrick Jensen (Raiders RB) 9 Super Bowl XVI (49ers 26 Bengals 21) 51 Anthony Munoz AFC All Pro (Bengals T) 292 Bears 1981 Team Leaders (Payton/Fencik/Margerum/Hampton) 517 Mark Murphy (Redskins S) 61 Tom DeLeone (Browns C) 39 Ken Anderson IA (Bengals) 14 Zachary Dixon (Colts RB) 277 Lynn Cain (Falcons RB) 293 Brian Baschnagel (Bears WR) 46 Isaac Curtis (Bengals WR) 25 Mario Clark (Bills CB - wax stain on back)
This was one of the easiest opening packs -- very little stickum holding the wrapper down -- and no wax stain to speak of. There was no insert in this year of Topps fb cards -- or did I miss out on that??. The cards from this "kicker" pack (5 of 15 cards were kickers!):
110 Dave Jennings (Giants P) 237 Bob Parsons (Bears P) 115 Ken Anderson (Bengals QB) 129 Johnny Evans (Browns P) 391 Clarence Harmon (Redskins RB) 277 Steve Mike-Mayer (Colts K) 117 Eddie Lee Ivery (Packers RB) 69 Charles White (Browns RB) 448 Alfred Jenkins (Falcons WR) 506 Tony Nathan (Dolphins RB) 120 Nolan Cromwell NFC All Pro (Rams S) 168 Ezra Johnson (Packers DE) 463 Freddie Scott (Lions WR) 45 Frank Corral (Rams K-P) 327 James Jones Super Action
Ray Guy - P Raiders Gene Upshaw - G Raiders Ted Brown - RB Vikings Herman Weaver - P Seahawks Don Hasselbeck - TE Patriots John Cappelletti - RB Chargers Kevin Long - RB Jets Dave Logan - WR Browns Gary Barbaro - S Chiefs Atlanta Falcons Team Leaders (W.Andrews/A.Jenkins/A.Richardson/J.Williams) Ken Greene - S Cardinals Jim Smith - WR Steelers Frank Lewis - WR Bills Burgess Owens - S Raiders LA Rams Team Leaders (C.Bryant/B.Waddy/N.Cromwell/J.Youngblood)
I hope that I can end up with something decent out of the '80 pack to end this nice pack break!
* '72 BASEBALL #15 100% * C. PASCUAL BASIC #3 * T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100% * L. TIANT BASIC #1 * DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100% * MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3 * PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1 * '65 DISNEYLAND #2 * '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6 * '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
024 Willie Miller 036 Ray Wersching 048 Dan Doornink 066 Rick Kane 092 Charlie Johnson 197 Miami Dolphins CL 199 Billy Campfield 207 Houston Oilers CL 233 Johnson Sawyer 278 Ron Johnson 315 Richard Todd 401 Jim Hart 422 Dwight Clark 427 Pete Johnson 481 Reggie McKenzie
Nothing of note unfortunately except the Clark rookie! I love the '81 Topps set. This is the last year that Topps didn't have a contract with NFL properties. That is why the logo's were airbrushed off of all the helmets. Ahhh the memories of opening this one!
Scott
Registry Sets: T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up 1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up 1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up 1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up 1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up 1981 Topps FB PSA 10 1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up 1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10 3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
There has GOT to be a Montana rookie out there....36 packs? Unfortunately, it wasn't in my pack. Again, I had never opened a pack of '81's, so that was fun. The gum is a very nice piece, still intact. Should I try it?
Here are my cards:
240 Dennis Harrah - Rams 139 Julius Adams - Patriots 313 Jeff Nixon - Bills 22 Joe Washington - Redskins 244 Falcons team card 427 Pete Johnson - Bengals 403 Cliff Branch - Raiders 373 Garo Yepremian - Bucs 308 Bob Chandler - Raiders 91 Ike Harris - Saints 405 Ken Stabler - Oilers 142 Ken Fantetti - Lions 58 Mike Renfro - Oilers 430 James Lofton - packers 84 Don Warren - Redskins
Overall, my cards were centered nicely, and were SHARP, but alas, no Montana.
I have to confess, I opened this pack at 10:20PM last night MDT, but I figured it was after midnight on the East Coast...
Yeah, what's going on? I can see how no one would've gotten a Montana RC since the '81 set had 528 cards in it but no Rice RC? And did anyone get an Elway? I remember seeing a Marino but no Elway? How about an Allen '83 RC? What happened?
Hmmmm. I still think someone should've pulled a Montana RC -- there are 15 cards per pack, with 36 packs out, 528 cards in the set.
The odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is (527/528)^(15*36), assuming all the cards are randomly distributed.
So, the odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is 35.93%. Hmph, worse odds than I thought.
OK, how about Elway RC? (395/396)^(15*36) = 25.53% nobody gets one
Rice RC? (17 cards per pack!) (395/396)^(17*36) = 21.28% nobody gets one
Wow, I thought for sure we'd be pulling at least one of each of these between the 36 of us. Next time, let's get 2-3 boxes for each year. And, I'll be getting multiple packs. Unless these were searched....nah....
I wont debate the stats used, but that doesnt make sense. For all FB from when the total number of cards was reduced to 396, there should be at least 1 of each card in a box. Yes its possible that one of them doesnt make it in there but I think its a lot less than 21-24% chance. Out of one box you should get 1.5 sets. That is assume perfect distribution with only doubles on the extra cards. The lack of a Montana I could see. You would need perfect distribution as one box should yeild one set (as there are 540 total cards in the box but only 528 needed for the set).
Packers Fan for Life Collecting: Brett Favre Master Set Favre Ticket Stubs Favre TD Reciever Autos Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set Football HOF Rc's
I've actually been contemplating which box to buy recenty -- an '81, '84 or '86 FB. I think I may hold off with distribution like that. Can you imagine dropping the coin on an '86 box and not pulling one Rice? I think I'll stick with the '82s and '85s.
The stats are correct, assuming the cards are randomly distributed. If the cards are collated in some fashion and then packaged, the statistics fail. So, does anyone know if cards were packaged with some pattern in these boxes? I would assume that there was some sort of order, which would mean the cards are not entirely randomly distributed. They sure appear randomized, though, when you go through the packs.
Assuming random distributions, while there is only a 21% chance of pulling a Rice rookie in an '86 box, there is also a chance you could pull 2 or more.
<< <i>Hmmmm. I still think someone should've pulled a Montana RC -- there are 15 cards per pack, with 36 packs out, 528 cards in the set.
The odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is (527/528)^(15*36), assuming all the cards are randomly distributed.
So, the odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is 35.93%. Hmph, worse odds than I thought.
OK, how about Elway RC? (395/396)^(15*36) = 25.53% nobody gets one
Rice RC? (17 cards per pack!) (395/396)^(17*36) = 21.28% nobody gets one
Wow, I thought for sure we'd be pulling at least one of each of these between the 36 of us. Next time, let's get 2-3 boxes for each year. And, I'll be getting multiple packs. Unless these were searched....nah....
Doug >>
I haven't figured it out yet, and I don't have time on my lunch break here, but there is something seriously wrong with those stats. Just my opinion.
But if there are 540 cards in a box (15 cards per 36 packs) and 528 cards in the set, then the odds of pulling any one card are better than one in three if the distribution is good.
Heck, in your scenerio, you would need to buy three boxes to get a Montana. But the odds of a Montana are the same as every card, meaning you would need three boxes to complete a set. But there are 528 cards in the set and 1620 cards in three boxes.
I'm not a math genious, but that can't be right, and if somehow it is, I'd like an explanation.
thanks, my scans to come.
shawn
edited to say: I realize what you mean by total randomness, assuming you pull 1 of 528 cards and then mix them all up and again and pull 1 of 528 cards, and then mix then up again and pull 1 of 528 cards, but we all know that's not how sheets are cut and distributed. I just dont want anyone assuming the ACTUAL odds of getting a Montana are 1 in 3 boxes.
I think one thing we're overlooking is the fact that these were more than likely black X boxes. Meaning, they were buy-backs from dealers by Topps. This being the scenario (taking, say ... 6 random packs from 6 random boxes and piecing them together to form one box) then it is entirely plausible that everyone just got unlucky.
Factoring in that there appears to be numerous rippers who haven't chimed in yet with their results (maybe they're waiting for their cards to come back from PSA ) then there's a good chance that we may all just be wondering about the Rice RC. With a Marino and two Elways, '85 well represented, '82 well represented and just about every other RC from '86 it may not be as bad as we're making it out.
Hopefully a Johnny-come-lately pops in with a sweet Montana!
Arthur
PS. I think the real question will be who pulls the Simms RC
<< <i>I haven't figured it out yet, and I don't have time on my lunch break here, but there is something seriously wrong with those stats. Just my opinion.
But if there are 540 cards in a box (15 cards per 36 packs) and 528 cards in the set, then the odds of pulling any one card are better than one in three if the distribution is good.
Heck, in your scenerio, you would need to buy three boxes to get a Montana. But the odds of a Montana are the same as every card, meaning you would need three boxes to complete a set. But there are 528 cards in the set and 1620 cards in three boxes.
I'm not a math genious, but that can't be right, and if somehow it is, I'd like an explanation.
thanks, my scans to come.
shawn
edited to say: I realize what you mean by total randomness, assuming you pull 1 of 528 cards and then mix them all up and again and pull 1 of 528 cards, and then mix then up again and pull 1 of 528 cards, but we all know that's not how sheets are cut and distributed. I just dont want anyone assuming the ACTUAL odds of getting a Montana are 1 in 3 boxes. >>
OK, here's the explanation: Assume the set has 528 cards. Assume you have a massive stockpile of cards from the set, where each card is equally plentiful in the pile, and the cards are randomly distributed in the pile. If you pick a single card at random off of the pile, the odds of it being a specific card is 1/528. The odds of the card not being the card you want is 1-(1/528) = 527/528. If you pick 2 cards from the pile, the odds that both cards will not be the specific card is (527/528)^2. This is because both draws from the pile are uncorrelated statistically, and the odds of pulling any card is always 1/528. If you pick 3 cards from the pile, the odds that all 3 cards will not be the specific card is (527/528)^3. A similar process follows for however many cards you pull.
So, a box of 1981 Topps football has 36 packs of 15 cards, for a total of 15*36 = 540 cards in the box. So, the odds of getting any one specific card would be (527/528) ^ (15*36) = (527/528)^540 = 0.35926 = 35.93%.
This mathematical analysis is sound, provided that the cards are randomly distributed in the box. We all know the cards are cut from sheets, and they are packaged somehow based on the sheets. This affects the numbers, but to first order, it is reasonable to assume that the cards are randomly distributed, meaning the odds of not pulling a Montana RC in a box is 35.93%. i.e. the odds of pulling one or more Montana RCs is 1-0.35926 = 64.07%.
If you had 3 boxes, the odds of not getting one would be (527/528)^(540*3) = 4.6%.
There is probably some correlation in the way the cards are packaged, so odds could be better than this. But, without correlation and assuming all cards are equally likely, these are the odds.
Your math corresponds then to what I said in my edit in the above post.
That if you drew one of 528 cards, and then redrew from the same 528 cards, then again, then that is the percentage.
But like I said, cards were packaged from cut full sheets, so that's not the case.
In reality, the odds of pulling any one card is 1 in 528, but the odds of pulling the same card AGAIN IMMEDIATELY were not 1 in 528, but more worse. The next card packaged would be the one next to in in the sheet.
So I don't want to argue your math, I just want people to realize the odds of pulling a Montana rookie, or any other card from a 1981 wax box, is much better than 67 percent. I know you know this, but Arthur seemed confused in an earlier post.
Yeah, I agree -- the odds are likely better than 67% for getting a Montana RC, since the cards are cut from specific sheets. But, there's no way to tell exactly how much better...
Well, could we get a volunteer to go off and buy a bunch of boxes, rip 'em all and calculate their odds of pulling one or more Montana RC's in a box? To be statistically significant, I would think 100 boxes or so would do it. HEE
Better late than never. I've been tied up with work and the hockey rip.
Here's my 81's.
1981 Topps Pack 1:
248 Matt Cavanaugh - Pats 114 Rickey Young - Vikings 378 Tim Wilson - Oilers 484 Scott Dierking - Jets 279 Tom DeLeone - Browns 200 Ted Hendricks All Pro - Raiders 161 Arthur Whittington - Raiders 185 Ed "Too Tall" Jones - Cowboys 119 Chuck Foreman - Pats 359 Raiders Team Leaders - Branch/Hayes/Hendricks etc. 166 Morris Towns - Oilers 5 Interception Ldrs. Hendricks-Raiders & Cromwell-Rams 267 John Jefferson SA - Chargers 151 Packers Team Leaders - Ivery/Lofton/Gray/Butler 316 Dan Hampton - Da Bears
1981 Topps Pack 2:
38 Archie Griffin - Bengals 221 Ron Bolton - Browns 407 Mike Nelms - Redskins 326 Bruce Laird - Colts 41 Lynn Dickey - Packers 415 Greg Pruitt - Browns 404 Roland Hooks - Bills 508 Herb Orvis - Colts 419 Sam McCullum - Seahawks 286 Randy Hughes - Cowboys 29 Clarence Scott - Browns 380 Revie Sorey All Pro - Da Bears 318 Louie Giammona - Eagles 465 Johnnie Gray - Packers 28 William Andrews SA - Falcons
Lots of centering issues and paper bubbles throughout.
Here are the results of my 81 pack: all cards except Roger Wehrli and Ted Hendricks were off center.
Roger Wehrli, Cardinals Oilers Team Leaders Ted Hendricks, Raiders Sherman White, Bills Arthur Whittington, Raiders Ed "Too Tall" Jones, Cowboys Sam Adams, Patriots Herman Edwards, Eagles Jay Saldi, Cowboys Dexter Bussey, Lions James Jones, Cowboys Buccaneers Team Leaders Jimmy Rogers, Saints Jim Allen, Lions and Rod Perry, Rams
Nothing too exciting as you can see.
Registry sets: 1954 Topps BB 1955 Bowman BB 1956 Topps Super BB 1957 Topps BB 1969 Topps BB 1984 Donruss BB 1961 Fleer W.S. Pennants 1960-62 Fleer Team Logo Decals Run
19 Washington Redskins TL 58 Billy "White Shoes" Johnson 69 Thom Darden 76 Miami Dolphins TL 89 Don C@ckroft 108 Hank Bauer 156 John Mendenhall 199 Louie Giammona 215 Efren Herrera 276 Brad Dusek 455 Billy Joe DuPree 521 Bernard Jackson
Oh well!
Scott
Registry Sets: T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up 1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up 1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up 1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up 1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up 1981 Topps FB PSA 10 1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up 1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10 3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
Tom Blanchard - Bucs Punter Bruce Harper - Jets RB Ray Wersching - 49ers Kicker Bill Bergey - Eagles MLB Jets TL (Clark Gaines/Wesley Walker/Burgess Owens/Joe Klecko) Wesley Walker - Jets WR Dan Neal - Bears C Steve Pisarkiewicz - Cardinals QB Jim Allen - Lions S Rafael Septien - Cowboys Kicker Dick Ambrose - Browns MLB Nat Moore - Dolphins WR
....oh well, I still had fun with this 80's football rip! Thanks guys!
* '72 BASEBALL #15 100% * C. PASCUAL BASIC #3 * T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100% * L. TIANT BASIC #1 * DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100% * MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3 * PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1 * '65 DISNEYLAND #2 * '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6 * '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
Wow nice pack here too! The first of my 2 1980 packs was a very nice pack. Take a look.
1980 Topps Pack 1:
175 Joe Greene - Steelers SWEET! 39 Chiefs TL - McKnight/Smith/Barbaro/Still pictured 115 Delvin Williams - Dolphins 493 NFC Championship - Rams 9 Buccs 0 373 D.D. Lewis - Cowboys 500 Chuck Foreman - Pats 50 Stan Walters AP - Eagles 225 Phil Simms - Giants SWEET! 306 Jim LeClair - Bengals 416 Craig Colquitt - Steelers 433 John Fitzgerald - Cowboys 450 Steve Largent - Seahawks SWEET!
1980 Topps Pack 2:
251 John Bunting - Eagles 465 Frank Corral - Rams 431 Chester Marcol - Packers 118 Cornell Webster - Seahawks 311 Don Hasselbeck - Pats 390 John Riggins - Redskins...Damn gumstain on back 418 Clay Matthews - Broncos 30 Mike Reinfeldt AP - Oilers 164 Russell Erxleben - Saints 233 Henry Marshall - Chiefs 60 Dennis Harrah AP - Rams 184 Ken Johnson - Giants
Scan:
This was a great rip btw. Much thanks to all involved.
Definitely one of my better packs. Though there is a slight tilt, the Greene and White are in great condition.
The complete 1980 pack: - Joe Green, Steelers, DT - Randy White, Cowboys, DT - Randy Cross, 49ers, G - Tim Foley, Dolphins, S - Tony Franklin, Eages, K - Neil O'Donoghue, K - Nick Mike-Mayer, K - Lions Team Leaders - Doug Beaudoin, Patriots, S - Mike Wood, Chargers, K - Don McCauley, Colts, RB - Chiefs Team Leaders
It certainly was a fun experience overall. I'd love to do it again!
-Tom
- Building these sets: ------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ ------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
I thought it might be fun to end this thread by posting my "favorite pulls" from the bust ....
As the scan shows, my "Top 4" certainly could have been better, but considering the realitively low cost of this experience and GREAT FUN that it was, I am definitely satisfied.
My thoughts on my top 4 (in no particular order):
1. 1984 Topps Marino/Bartkowski PL (it's kind of a Marino RC, right?) 2. 1989 Score Montain/Rice Combo (The greatest duo ever captured in one of the '80's most underrated sets) 3. 1985 Topps Sticker Warren Moon (I love Moon and really wanted to pull his RC. I guess I sort of did) 4. 1985 Topps Howie Long (This card, condition-wise, is absolutely flawless. Will definitely send in to PSA)
Thanks again to the organizer on this --- count me in for the next one!!!!
-Tom
- Building these sets: ------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ ------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
Comments
HUGE confession .... after the '85 rip I couldn't take it anymore --- proceeded to bust all the rest of my packs. I became so discouraged with the results that I got lazy about posting/scanning.
My guilt has brought me back ....
Plus, I got some cool cards ... just b/c there's not Marino or Montana RC doesn't mean it was a good bust ... and it's been great fun regardless....
Here are the '84's....
Rest of pack:
- Raul Allegre, K, Colts
- Linden King, OLB, Chargers
- Donnie Shell, S, Steelers
- Roosevelt Leaks, RB, Bills
- Barney Chavous, DE, Broncos
- Instant Reply, William Andrews
- Jeff Van Note, C, Falcons
- Jerry Robinson, ILB, Eagles
- Ben Williams, DE, Bills
- Andra Franklin, RB, Dolphins
- Chuck Muncie, RB, Chargers
NOTE: I have gotten Todd Christenson in at least 3 different packs now -- I am SO tired of seeing that terrible hairdo!
second NOTE: I guess, techincally, I did get a Marino RC ... just not THE Marino RC
-t
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
Just noticed this .....
From my 1987 and 1984 packs ....
What are the odds? Only one single pack from each year, get the same rushing leaders card and both years the same two players happen to be rushing leaders...
WEIRD!!!!!
-t
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
NOTE:
Don Hasselbeck is Matt's father.
Rest of pack:
- Bill Kenney, QB, Chiefs
- Al Richardson, OLB, Falcons
- Reggie Williams, OLB, Bengals
- Freddie Solomon, WR, 49ers
- Eric Harris, CB, Chiefs
- Tom Skladany, P, Lions
- Greg Coleman, P, Vikings
- Harvey Martin, DE, Cowboys
- Everson Walls, CB, Cowboys (gum almost penetrated card)
I would have LOVED this pack (big fan of both Singletary and Largent) but unfortunately this pack must have sat in the Vegas desert during August b/c my gum had glued 4 or so of the cards together and nearly every card was warped. I'm trying to "flatten" the Singletary and Largent but we'll see. My Everson Walls RC was completely ruined.
-t
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
<< <i>
NOTE:
Don Hasselbeck is Matt's father. >>
I wondered that but I never knew. Cool.
My Auctions
1984 Topps Pack
13 Ray Donaldson
33 Charles Alexander
37 Cris Collinsworth
40 Eddie Edwards
135 Bob Cryder
142 Mosi Tatupu
153 Lance Mehl
233 Matt Suhey
268 John Jefferson
275 Jan Stenerud
317 Mark Haynes
321 Lawrence Taylor
345 Neil Lomax
349 San Francisco 49ers Team Leaders
354 Fred Dean
1983 Topps Pack
25 Gerald Riggs
41 Otis Wilson
53 Ron Springs
133 Lawrence Taylor
170 Jeff Moore
187 Jeff Bostic
206 NFL Interception Leaders
316 Don McNeal
346 Joe Klecko
368 Mike Webster
375 Tim Fox
378 Louie Kelcher
387 Michael Jackson
Walter Payton Sticker
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
I'm working on the Set as PSA 9's NQ and looking for graded or raw to complete my set.
5Stat's 1986 Topps PSA 9 Retirement Set
Let me know if anyone can help,
Bruce (5_stat)
The rest of the pack goes like this....
Steve Watson - WR Broncos All Pro (wax stain on front, actually pieces of wax pack all on the card!)
Football Brothers - Lyle & Glenn Blackwood
Billy Jackson - RB Chiefs
Dennis Harrison -DE Eagles
Mark Brammer - TE Bills
Greg Stemrick - CB Oilers
Billy Campfield - RB Eagles
Sticker - NFC Championship Game
Mark Mullaney - DE Vikings
Paul Coffman - TE Packers
John Hannah - In Action Patriots
John Bunting - OLB Eagles
Greg Pruitt - RB Browns
Hugh Green - OLB Buccaneers
* C. PASCUAL BASIC #3
* T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100%
* L. TIANT BASIC #1
* DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100%
* MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3
* PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1
* '65 DISNEYLAND #2
* '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6
* '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
WaltDisneyBoards
22 Mark Brammer
90 Steve Watson
92 Houston Oilers TL
106 Greg Stemrick
118 Billy Jackson
158 Steve Nelson
172 Joe Klecko IA
264 Lyle & Glenn Blackwood Football Brothers
274 Steve Bartkowski
350 Billy Simms IA
446 Dennis Harrison
468 Ken Greene
491 Jack Reynolds
509 Washington Redskins TL
510 Perry Brooks
73 George Rogers Sticker
Not much. Ditto on the Klecko IA from Arny V's post.
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
George Roberts
Billy Taylor
Donnie Shell
Dave Butz
Dave Jennings
Bob Parsons
Packers team leaders
Gordon JOnes
Charger team leaders
Randy Holloway
NFL scoring leaders - Murray Lions and Smith Patriots
Charles Alexander
Robert Brazele
1982 Topps Pack 1
320 Harvey Martin - Cowboys
34 Bill Simpson - Bills
433 Phil Simms Giants
319 James Jones - Cowboys
155 Andy Johnson - Patriots
474 Neil O'Donoghue - Cardinals
519 Lemar Parrish - Redskins
Sticker 221 Dan Fouts - Chargers
172 Joe Klecko IA - Jets
446 Dennis Harrison - Eagles
22 Mark Brammer - Bills
269 Football bros. Eddie & Walter Payton
197 Derrick Ramsey - Raiders
250 Steve Largent IA - Seahawks
503 Cecil Johnson - Buccaneers
350 Billy Simms IA - Lions
1982 Topps Pack 2
389 Vikings Team Leaders
213 Jack Lambert - Steelers
192 Derrick Jensen - Raiders
511 Dave Butz - Redskins
6 Dan Ross RB - Bengals
244 Theotis Brown - Seahawks
437 Eagles Team Leaders
356 George Cumby - Packers
Sticker 159 John Hannah - Patriots
396 Eddie Payton - Vikings
364 James Lofton - Packers
128 Jimmy Cefalo - Dolphins
221 David Trout - Steelers
312 Tony Dorsett IA - Cowboys
528 Checklist 397-528
249 Steve Largent - Seahawks
Scans:
Dan the Man Ross
Paytons
My favorite receiver
TD & Billy Sims
Lofton & Simms
Stickers
Tough Guys
Edited to add scans.
61 Topps (100%) 7.96
62 Parkhurst (100%) 8.70
63 Topps (100%) 7.96
63 York WB's (50%) 8.52
68 Topps (39%) 8.54
69 Topps (3%) 9.00
69 OPC (83%) 8.21
71 Topps (100%) 9.21 #1 A.T.F.
72 Topps (100%) 9.39
73 Topps (13%) 9.35
74 OPC WHA (95%) 8.57
75 Topps (50%) 9.23
77 OPC WHA (86%) 8.62 #1 A.T.F.
88 Topps (5%) 10.00
Here are my cards:
264 Lyle and Glenn Blackwood
90 Steve Watson - Broncos
350 Billy Sims IA - Lions
503 Cecil Johnson - Bucs
250 Steve Largent IA - Seahawks (Not a great action shot)
197 Derrick Ramsey - Raiders
269 Eddie and Walter Payton
Sticker #160 - Anthony Munoz
284 Mike Kenn - Falcons
223 Chargers team card
1 Ken Anderson Super Bowl pass completion record
137 Tommy Vigorito - Dolphins
5 George Rogers rookie rushing record - Saints
243 Seahawks Team card
29 Jim Haslett - Bills
263 Chris and Matt Bahr
I think this is a really good looking set for the '80s. Most of my cards were off center T/B, but it was fun looking at them.
Doug
<< <i>I had never opened a pack of '82s...not bad looking cards, but I didn't get much. At least I got a "sweetness" IA card, although it had a corner ding.
That is my ALL TIME favorite Payton card.
I have posted it in a couple of threads as my favorite card. It is just vintage Sweetness.
Look at #59 on the Bucs, just sitting down and watching the Sweetness show.
My Auctions
My Auctions
Here are my '82's :
Fun rip, but I when my best "card" is a sticker, that's not a good sign!
I did get several "In Action" shots -- which I agree do look really cool. And, another Everson Walls (the true RC), again spoiled by WAX!
Here is the complete pull:
- Anthony Munoz *sticker*
- Ozzie Newsome IN ACTION
- Football Brothers - Archie & Ray Griffin
- Everson Walls, CB, Cowboys
- JT Smith, WR, Chiefs
- Bob Chandler, QB, Raiders
- Mark Moseley, K, Redskins
- James Wilder, RB, Bucs (RC)
- Brad Van Pelt, OLB, Giants
- Noah Jackson, G, Bears
- Reggie Williams, OLB, Bengals
- Monte Jackson, CB, Raiders
- Clarence Scott, S, Browns
- Reese McCall, TE, Colts
- Alfred Jenkins IN ACTION
- Kevin House IN ACTION
-t
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
Here are the results of my '83 pack (oops!):
301 Lester Hayes AFC Pro Bowl (Raiders CB)
363 Jack Lambert AFC Pro Bowl (Steelers ILB)
111 Bruce Clark (Saints DE)
154 Carl Birdsong (Cardinals P)
103 Doug Martin (Vikings DE)
282 KC Chiefs Team Leaders (Joe Delaney 380 yds rushing?!)
114 Jeff Groth (Saints WR)
Sticker William Andrews (Falcons RB)
315 Bob Kuechenberg AFC Pro Bowl (Dolphins G)
338 NY Jets Team Leaders (Freeman McNeil, 786 yds rushing)
137 Harold Carmichael (Eagles WR)
140 Carl Hairston (Eagles DE)
132 Johnny Perkins (Giants WR)
260 Denver Broncos Team Leaders (Gerald Willhite, 347 yds rushing??!! -- and a gum stain bleeding through from back to front
And some scans...
Sticker #144 Lawrence Taylor
399 Joe Senser IA (Vikings)
109 KC Chiefs 1981 Team Leaders (Delaney/Harris/Smith/Kremer)
113 Joe Delaney IA (Chiefs)
192 Derrick Jensen (Raiders RB)
9 Super Bowl XVI (49ers 26 Bengals 21)
51 Anthony Munoz AFC All Pro (Bengals T)
292 Bears 1981 Team Leaders (Payton/Fencik/Margerum/Hampton)
517 Mark Murphy (Redskins S)
61 Tom DeLeone (Browns C)
39 Ken Anderson IA (Bengals)
14 Zachary Dixon (Colts RB)
277 Lynn Cain (Falcons RB)
293 Brian Baschnagel (Bears WR)
46 Isaac Curtis (Bengals WR)
25 Mario Clark (Bills CB - wax stain on back)
This was one of the easiest opening packs -- very little stickum holding the wrapper down -- and no wax stain to speak of. There was no insert in this year of Topps fb cards -- or did I miss out on that??. The cards from this "kicker" pack (5 of 15 cards were kickers!):
110 Dave Jennings (Giants P)
237 Bob Parsons (Bears P)
115 Ken Anderson (Bengals QB)
129 Johnny Evans (Browns P)
391 Clarence Harmon (Redskins RB)
277 Steve Mike-Mayer (Colts K)
117 Eddie Lee Ivery (Packers RB)
69 Charles White (Browns RB)
448 Alfred Jenkins (Falcons WR)
506 Tony Nathan (Dolphins RB)
120 Nolan Cromwell NFC All Pro (Rams S)
168 Ezra Johnson (Packers DE)
463 Freddie Scott (Lions WR)
45 Frank Corral (Rams K-P)
327 James Jones Super Action
Ray Guy - P Raiders
Gene Upshaw - G Raiders
Ted Brown - RB Vikings
Herman Weaver - P Seahawks
Don Hasselbeck - TE Patriots
John Cappelletti - RB Chargers
Kevin Long - RB Jets
Dave Logan - WR Browns
Gary Barbaro - S Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons Team Leaders (W.Andrews/A.Jenkins/A.Richardson/J.Williams)
Ken Greene - S Cardinals
Jim Smith - WR Steelers
Frank Lewis - WR Bills
Burgess Owens - S Raiders
LA Rams Team Leaders (C.Bryant/B.Waddy/N.Cromwell/J.Youngblood)
I hope that I can end up with something decent out of the '80 pack to end this nice pack break!
* C. PASCUAL BASIC #3
* T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100%
* L. TIANT BASIC #1
* DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100%
* MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3
* PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1
* '65 DISNEYLAND #2
* '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6
* '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
WaltDisneyBoards
024 Willie Miller
036 Ray Wersching
048 Dan Doornink
066 Rick Kane
092 Charlie Johnson
197 Miami Dolphins CL
199 Billy Campfield
207 Houston Oilers CL
233 Johnson Sawyer
278 Ron Johnson
315 Richard Todd
401 Jim Hart
422 Dwight Clark
427 Pete Johnson
481 Reggie McKenzie
Nothing of note unfortunately except the Clark rookie! I love the '81 Topps set. This is the last year that Topps didn't have a contract with NFL properties. That is why the logo's were airbrushed off of all the helmets. Ahhh the memories of opening this one!
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
Collecting:
Brett Favre Master Set
Favre Ticket Stubs
Favre TD Reciever Autos
Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set
Football HOF Rc's
Here are my cards:
240 Dennis Harrah - Rams
139 Julius Adams - Patriots
313 Jeff Nixon - Bills
22 Joe Washington - Redskins
244 Falcons team card
427 Pete Johnson - Bengals
403 Cliff Branch - Raiders
373 Garo Yepremian - Bucs
308 Bob Chandler - Raiders
91 Ike Harris - Saints
405 Ken Stabler - Oilers
142 Ken Fantetti - Lions
58 Mike Renfro - Oilers
430 James Lofton - packers
84 Don Warren - Redskins
Overall, my cards were centered nicely, and were SHARP, but alas, no Montana.
I have to confess, I opened this pack at 10:20PM last night MDT, but I figured it was after midnight on the East Coast...
Doug
Arthur
The odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is (527/528)^(15*36), assuming all the cards are randomly distributed.
So, the odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is 35.93%. Hmph, worse odds than I thought.
OK, how about Elway RC?
(395/396)^(15*36) = 25.53% nobody gets one
Rice RC? (17 cards per pack!)
(395/396)^(17*36) = 21.28% nobody gets one
Wow, I thought for sure we'd be pulling at least one of each of these between the 36 of us. Next time, let's get 2-3 boxes for each year.
Doug
Collecting:
Brett Favre Master Set
Favre Ticket Stubs
Favre TD Reciever Autos
Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set
Football HOF Rc's
Arthur
Assuming random distributions, while there is only a 21% chance of pulling a Rice rookie in an '86 box, there is also a chance you could pull 2 or more.
Doug
Smart move stickin' with the '85s though Arthur!
* C. PASCUAL BASIC #3
* T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100%
* L. TIANT BASIC #1
* DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100%
* MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3
* PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1
* '65 DISNEYLAND #2
* '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6
* '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
WaltDisneyBoards
<< <i>Hmmmm. I still think someone should've pulled a Montana RC -- there are 15 cards per pack, with 36 packs out, 528 cards in the set.
The odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is (527/528)^(15*36), assuming all the cards are randomly distributed.
So, the odds of nobody getting a Montana RC is 35.93%. Hmph, worse odds than I thought.
OK, how about Elway RC?
(395/396)^(15*36) = 25.53% nobody gets one
Rice RC? (17 cards per pack!)
(395/396)^(17*36) = 21.28% nobody gets one
Wow, I thought for sure we'd be pulling at least one of each of these between the 36 of us. Next time, let's get 2-3 boxes for each year.
Doug >>
I haven't figured it out yet, and I don't have time on my lunch break here, but there is something seriously wrong with those stats. Just my opinion.
But if there are 540 cards in a box (15 cards per 36 packs) and 528 cards in the set, then the odds of pulling any one card are better than one in three if the distribution is good.
Heck, in your scenerio, you would need to buy three boxes to get a Montana. But the odds of a Montana are the same as every card, meaning you would need three boxes to complete a set.
But there are 528 cards in the set and 1620 cards in three boxes.
I'm not a math genious, but that can't be right, and if somehow it is, I'd like an explanation.
thanks, my scans to come.
shawn
edited to say: I realize what you mean by total randomness, assuming you pull 1 of 528 cards and then mix them all up and again and pull 1 of 528 cards, and then mix then up again and pull 1 of 528 cards, but we all know that's not how sheets are cut and distributed.
I just dont want anyone assuming the ACTUAL odds of getting a Montana are 1 in 3 boxes.
Only packs I ripped were 89's looking for the Sanders Rc
I will put this on the to do list, at least I have some packs to look forward too
Thanks again Jeff and all who've posted scans.
Factoring in that there appears to be numerous rippers who haven't chimed in yet with their results (maybe they're waiting for their cards to come back from PSA
Hopefully a Johnny-come-lately pops in with a sweet Montana!
Arthur
PS. I think the real question will be who pulls the Simms RC
<< <i>I haven't figured it out yet, and I don't have time on my lunch break here, but there is something seriously wrong with those stats. Just my opinion.
But if there are 540 cards in a box (15 cards per 36 packs) and 528 cards in the set, then the odds of pulling any one card are better than one in three if the distribution is good.
Heck, in your scenerio, you would need to buy three boxes to get a Montana. But the odds of a Montana are the same as every card, meaning you would need three boxes to complete a set.
But there are 528 cards in the set and 1620 cards in three boxes.
I'm not a math genious, but that can't be right, and if somehow it is, I'd like an explanation.
thanks, my scans to come.
shawn
edited to say: I realize what you mean by total randomness, assuming you pull 1 of 528 cards and then mix them all up and again and pull 1 of 528 cards, and then mix then up again and pull 1 of 528 cards, but we all know that's not how sheets are cut and distributed.
I just dont want anyone assuming the ACTUAL odds of getting a Montana are 1 in 3 boxes. >>
OK, here's the explanation:
Assume the set has 528 cards. Assume you have a massive stockpile of cards from the set, where each card is equally plentiful in the pile, and the cards are randomly distributed in the pile. If you pick a single card at random off of the pile, the odds of it being a specific card is 1/528. The odds of the card not being the card you want is 1-(1/528) = 527/528.
If you pick 2 cards from the pile, the odds that both cards will not be the specific card is (527/528)^2. This is because both draws from the pile are uncorrelated statistically, and the odds of pulling any card is always 1/528.
If you pick 3 cards from the pile, the odds that all 3 cards will not be the specific card is (527/528)^3.
A similar process follows for however many cards you pull.
So, a box of 1981 Topps football has 36 packs of 15 cards, for a total of 15*36 = 540 cards in the box. So, the odds of getting any one specific card would be (527/528) ^ (15*36) = (527/528)^540 = 0.35926 = 35.93%.
This mathematical analysis is sound, provided that the cards are randomly distributed in the box. We all know the cards are cut from sheets, and they are packaged somehow based on the sheets. This affects the numbers, but to first order, it is reasonable to assume that the cards are randomly distributed, meaning the odds of not pulling a Montana RC in a box is 35.93%. i.e. the odds of pulling one or more Montana RCs is 1-0.35926 = 64.07%.
If you had 3 boxes, the odds of not getting one would be (527/528)^(540*3) = 4.6%.
There is probably some correlation in the way the cards are packaged, so odds could be better than this. But, without correlation and assuming all cards are equally likely, these are the odds.
Doug
Your math corresponds then to what I said in my edit in the above post.
That if you drew one of 528 cards, and then redrew from the same 528 cards, then again, then that is the percentage.
But like I said, cards were packaged from cut full sheets, so that's not the case.
In reality, the odds of pulling any one card is 1 in 528, but the odds of pulling the same card AGAIN IMMEDIATELY were not 1 in 528, but more worse. The next card packaged would be the one next to in in the sheet.
So I don't want to argue your math, I just want people to realize the odds of pulling a Montana rookie, or any other card from a 1981 wax box, is much better than 67 percent.
I know you know this, but Arthur seemed confused in an earlier post.
shawn
Arthur
Obviously not much.
shawn
Probably my best pack yet, with a nice Winslow and Jaws.
shawn
Well, could we get a volunteer to go off and buy a bunch of boxes, rip 'em all and calculate their odds of pulling one or more Montana RC's in a box? To be statistically significant, I would think 100 boxes or so would do it. HEE
Doug
Here's my 81's.
1981 Topps Pack 1:
248 Matt Cavanaugh - Pats
114 Rickey Young - Vikings
378 Tim Wilson - Oilers
484 Scott Dierking - Jets
279 Tom DeLeone - Browns
200 Ted Hendricks All Pro - Raiders
161 Arthur Whittington - Raiders
185 Ed "Too Tall" Jones - Cowboys
119 Chuck Foreman - Pats
359 Raiders Team Leaders - Branch/Hayes/Hendricks etc.
166 Morris Towns - Oilers
5 Interception Ldrs. Hendricks-Raiders & Cromwell-Rams
267 John Jefferson SA - Chargers
151 Packers Team Leaders - Ivery/Lofton/Gray/Butler
316 Dan Hampton - Da Bears
1981 Topps Pack 2:
38 Archie Griffin - Bengals
221 Ron Bolton - Browns
407 Mike Nelms - Redskins
326 Bruce Laird - Colts
41 Lynn Dickey - Packers
415 Greg Pruitt - Browns
404 Roland Hooks - Bills
508 Herb Orvis - Colts
419 Sam McCullum - Seahawks
286 Randy Hughes - Cowboys
29 Clarence Scott - Browns
380 Revie Sorey All Pro - Da Bears
318 Louie Giammona - Eagles
465 Johnnie Gray - Packers
28 William Andrews SA - Falcons
Lots of centering issues and paper bubbles throughout.
Bob C.
61 Topps (100%) 7.96
62 Parkhurst (100%) 8.70
63 Topps (100%) 7.96
63 York WB's (50%) 8.52
68 Topps (39%) 8.54
69 Topps (3%) 9.00
69 OPC (83%) 8.21
71 Topps (100%) 9.21 #1 A.T.F.
72 Topps (100%) 9.39
73 Topps (13%) 9.35
74 OPC WHA (95%) 8.57
75 Topps (50%) 9.23
77 OPC WHA (86%) 8.62 #1 A.T.F.
88 Topps (5%) 10.00
Roger Wehrli, Cardinals
Oilers Team Leaders
Ted Hendricks, Raiders
Sherman White, Bills
Arthur Whittington, Raiders
Ed "Too Tall" Jones, Cowboys
Sam Adams, Patriots
Herman Edwards, Eagles
Jay Saldi, Cowboys
Dexter Bussey, Lions
James Jones, Cowboys
Buccaneers Team Leaders
Jimmy Rogers, Saints
Jim Allen, Lions
and Rod Perry, Rams
Nothing too exciting as you can see.
1954 Topps BB
1955 Bowman BB
1956 Topps Super BB
1957 Topps BB
1969 Topps BB
1984 Donruss BB
1961 Fleer W.S. Pennants
1960-62 Fleer Team Logo Decals Run
Not a lot here, really --- though the Mike Haynes looks like a surefire 9.
The complete pack:
- Mike Haynes, CB, Patriots
- Lyle Alzado, DE, Browns
- John Matuszak
- Rick Danmeier, K, Vikings
- Vernon Perry, S, Oilers
- Dave Dalby, C, Raiders
- Herbert Scott, G, Cowboys
- Steve Grogan, QB, Patriots
- Ed Simonini, MLB, Colts
- Rush Brown, DT, Cardinals
- Jerry Butler, WR, Bills
- Dan Ross, TE, Bengals
- Junior Miller, TE, Falcons AP
- Rich Milot, MLB, Redskins
- Doug Wilkerson, G, Chargers
Centering wasn't great with this pack.
Still, though, chasing the Montana was fun ... hope someone finds one!
-t
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
1980 Topps Pack
19 Washington Redskins TL
58 Billy "White Shoes" Johnson
69 Thom Darden
76 Miami Dolphins TL
89 Don C@ckroft
108 Hank Bauer
156 John Mendenhall
199 Louie Giammona
215 Efren Herrera
276 Brad Dusek
455 Billy Joe DuPree
521 Bernard Jackson
Oh well!
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
Tom Blanchard - Bucs Punter
Bruce Harper - Jets RB
Ray Wersching - 49ers Kicker
Bill Bergey - Eagles MLB
Jets TL (Clark Gaines/Wesley Walker/Burgess Owens/Joe Klecko)
Wesley Walker - Jets WR
Dan Neal - Bears C
Steve Pisarkiewicz - Cardinals QB
Jim Allen - Lions S
Rafael Septien - Cowboys Kicker
Dick Ambrose - Browns MLB
Nat Moore - Dolphins WR
....oh well, I still had fun with this 80's football rip! Thanks guys!
* C. PASCUAL BASIC #3
* T. PEREZ BASIC #4 100%
* L. TIANT BASIC #1
* DRYSDALE BASIC #4 100%
* MAGIC MASTER #4/BASIC #3
* PALMEIRO MASTER/BASIC #1
* '65 DISNEYLAND #2
* '78 ELVIS PRESLEY #6
* '78 THREE'S COMPANY #1
WaltDisneyBoards
1980 Topps Pack 1:
175 Joe Greene - Steelers SWEET!
39 Chiefs TL - McKnight/Smith/Barbaro/Still pictured
115 Delvin Williams - Dolphins
493 NFC Championship - Rams 9 Buccs 0
373 D.D. Lewis - Cowboys
500 Chuck Foreman - Pats
50 Stan Walters AP - Eagles
225 Phil Simms - Giants SWEET!
306 Jim LeClair - Bengals
416 Craig Colquitt - Steelers
433 John Fitzgerald - Cowboys
450 Steve Largent - Seahawks SWEET!
1980 Topps Pack 2:
251 John Bunting - Eagles
465 Frank Corral - Rams
431 Chester Marcol - Packers
118 Cornell Webster - Seahawks
311 Don Hasselbeck - Pats
390 John Riggins - Redskins...Damn gumstain on back
418 Clay Matthews - Broncos
30 Mike Reinfeldt AP - Oilers
164 Russell Erxleben - Saints
233 Henry Marshall - Chiefs
60 Dennis Harrah AP - Rams
184 Ken Johnson - Giants
Scan:
This was a great rip btw. Much thanks to all involved.
Bob C.
61 Topps (100%) 7.96
62 Parkhurst (100%) 8.70
63 Topps (100%) 7.96
63 York WB's (50%) 8.52
68 Topps (39%) 8.54
69 Topps (3%) 9.00
69 OPC (83%) 8.21
71 Topps (100%) 9.21 #1 A.T.F.
72 Topps (100%) 9.39
73 Topps (13%) 9.35
74 OPC WHA (95%) 8.57
75 Topps (50%) 9.23
77 OPC WHA (86%) 8.62 #1 A.T.F.
88 Topps (5%) 10.00
It's been a blast!!
shawn
Definitely one of my better packs. Though there is a slight tilt, the Greene and White are in great condition.
The complete 1980 pack:
- Joe Green, Steelers, DT
- Randy White, Cowboys, DT
- Randy Cross, 49ers, G
- Tim Foley, Dolphins, S
- Tony Franklin, Eages, K
- Neil O'Donoghue, K
- Nick Mike-Mayer, K
- Lions Team Leaders
- Doug Beaudoin, Patriots, S
- Mike Wood, Chargers, K
- Don McCauley, Colts, RB
- Chiefs Team Leaders
It certainly was a fun experience overall. I'd love to do it again!
-Tom
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+
As the scan shows, my "Top 4" certainly could have been better, but considering the realitively low cost of this experience and GREAT FUN that it was, I am definitely satisfied.
My thoughts on my top 4 (in no particular order):
1. 1984 Topps Marino/Bartkowski PL (it's kind of a Marino RC, right?)
2. 1989 Score Montain/Rice Combo (The greatest duo ever captured in one of the '80's most underrated sets)
3. 1985 Topps Sticker Warren Moon (I love Moon and really wanted to pull his RC. I guess I sort of did)
4. 1985 Topps Howie Long (This card, condition-wise, is absolutely flawless. Will definitely send in to PSA)
Thanks again to the organizer on this --- count me in for the next one!!!!
-Tom
------- 1960 Topps Baseball PSA 8+
------- 1985 Topps Hockey PSA 9+