Hypothetical: The NEW PCGS....
MrEureka
Posts: 24,362 ✭✭✭✭✭
Let's say PCGS comes up with a new process for grading coins with 100% consistency. They announce that they will introduce the new process and a new slab on the first of the year. They also announce that they are willing to buy any PCGS coins at CDN bid anytime before January 1. After that, all bets are off and the old slabs will no longer be guaranteed.
In this scenario, how many PCGS coins will you dump before yearend?
In this scenario, how many PCGS coins will you dump before yearend?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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But I have a feeling few would be sold out-right before the changeover....except possibly the junk.
You create the most interesting problems.
What they should offer to do is take the coins in, regrade them, and guarantee the difference in price if they go down in value. They still couldn't afford such a move w/o going out of business.
I don't have any significant number of PCGS coins I would sell for bid however. A common walker here or there, but nothing price over a few hundred dollars.
roadrunner
That is why any guaranteed buy back is fairly worthless.
If they had the money, my guess is that at least 25% of the slabs will be returned.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
<< <i>That is why any guaranteed buy back is fairly worthless. >>
Julian, I also came to that conclusion some time ago, and have voiced roadrunners point...a method by which to take the "slack" out of the market.
I'd dump 10-15% of my regular issue US coin inventory, the coins to which the plastic adds significant value.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
That's not a hypothetical. It's inconceivable.
none!!
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In essence, I don't see how they could stay in business. Adios to crack-out people and coin doctors. It would probably help the market in that buyers and sellers would agree re the grade of what they are buying. Still, I couldn't see a grading service doing something to facilitate the market which in the process, would put it out of business.
Interesting topic.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Steve - Wow! Why do you still own so many "rejects"?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'd send them all in and move on to another hobby.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
<< <i>Why would anybody unless they were convinced their coins were overgraded? >>
Because after the first of the year everyone would be clammering for the coins they buy to be in the new 100% consistancy holders, and the older holders would be looked upone with suspicion as possibly not being good enough. Plus since there is no longer a guarantee to back up that potentially very expensive grade, demand for it will also fall. If a coin in a guaranteed holder is $1000, how much is it worth, even from the same company, if that companyhas publicly said that they will not stand behind it? Even if the grade is right you will either still have to sell it at a discount or find a specialist who needs it and who trusts his own grading. Even then you may have to discount some because you are over a barrel and they know it. In effect the old slabs would become the same as second tier company slabs. It would be like waking up tomorrow and finding that your PCGS slabs are now PCI slabs, maybe ANACS or ICG slabs.
And, of course, there's the fact that it wouldn't take but a decent lawyer to ensure the guaranty is still in effect for the older holders if I desired to do so. But ... I buy the coins because I like them, not because of the guaranty.
SCGS (Scott Coin Grading Service) - Where every coin is a P01
<< <i>I doubt the older holders would be looked upon as not good enough. If so, then why aren't old rattler holders looked upon with scorn instead of commanding high prices? >>
Because currently the old holders are a zero risk item. If you resubmit them and they upgrade you win. If they grade the same you lose nothing, and if they downgrade you still have the coin plus financial compensation so you still lose nothing.
Under the new hypothetical if you resubmit and it upgrades you win, if it stays the same you lose nothing, but if it downgrades it downgrades and you not only get just the lower grade coin back with no compensation, but since the grading is "100% consistant", there is no chance of ever getting it back into the original higher grade holder which had better appriciation potential.
So you have gone from a zero risk with upside potential to a moderate risk with both up and downside potential. This would make it seem to me that the old holders under the hypothetical system to be considerably less attractive financially than they are under the current system. And if they are less attractive they will also decline in value.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
History has a way of repeating. Hypothetically, that is.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.