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Does it really matter what the PCGS pop report says about finest known modern Crap ?
STEWARTBLAYNUMIS
Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭
I'm confused as to why the PCGS Set Registry collectors care if they have a 2001 D Lincoln Memorial cent in ms 67 red or ms 68 red ?I find myself caught up in the same annoying situation when I bought a nice 1958 Lincoln cent in ms 66 red for $35 and everyone tells me I need an ms 67 red for $2,500.Is David Hall and company
doing this to me or am I out of touch.
Stewart
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I tend to concur. Then again, I'm not trying for a "finest known" registry set. That was a great invention for separating money from people who have too much of it!
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
The Registry set mania is not responsible for the above as it has been in place since slabbing went into effect. But the pricing in moderns is nearly all attributable to Registry Set building. A factor of more than 3X to the next grade is a tough nut to swallow. It rarely occurs in type coins however. Exceptions are under 5% of the time.
roadrunner
BST successful dealings with:MsMorrisine, goldman86
AS to the SB question-- A Common coin in the highest grade is still a common coin--(Bowers). Buy one in less er grade cheap with super eye appeal.
The VAST majority of them (TPM's) will decline in value - most certainly at least in the short run - and although some will turn out to actually be "rare" & hard to find/improve on, overall, one will get severely burned employing a "buy & sell in less than a year or so" or a "buy & hold" strategy unless the time horizon is sufficiently long. Even then, the annualized ROI might still make one wonder why they ever bought them in the 1st place.
The difference is that in the securities markets, individuals can and DO get caught, and pay very stiff fines and/or lose their securities licenses for life. In the rare coin markets, it's considered business as usual.
edited to add: I have witnessed firsthand dealers that owned pop. 1 or pop. 2 classic coins keep raising their bids on the greysheet, then eventually dump the coin(s) and simply delete their bid, leaving the new owner with a coin that shows a greysheet price of 25-50% less.
It was explained to me the only risk involved is if another coin is made while they are artificially bidding it up, they would have to take it off market at their 'bid' price....a pretty small risk.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
The trick is not to pay large sums for indistinct differences!
roadrunner
<< <i>But the moderns have entered new territory where it is routine to find multiples of 50X to even 100X for a one grade change. >>
It's a good thing you never see that insanity in classic coins, <cough>toned Morgans</cough>.
Stewart,
You make a good point. Perhaps you should sell some of your many pop top duplicates and buy a few hundred undergrades.
Russ, NCNE
You are right on the mark. With modern proof cameos, the market has moved steadily downward over time for the 70dcams. I was happy buying the 69dcams for $10-$20 while the Registry Nuts went after the 70dcams for upwards of $1000. I couldn't justify the premium for a coin that wasn't noticibly better unless aided by a 10x loupe. The market has now moved well under $500 with many pieces selling for less than $200.
I know that there are those that disagree with me. That is OK - to each his own. But I have noticed that most that disagree are either 1) Dealers that are hyping the 70dcams or 2) Registry set owners that are trying to protect their "investment". All I can say is that I will be there to buy those 70dcams once the price comes down to earth - IMO it is just a matter of time.
Cameonut
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
Pharmer - The pop of a 58 or a 73 D in ms 66 is enormous.At least in the 100's
How can anyone besides Wondercoin call a Sacajawea or a Kennedy half dollar RARE ?????????
Stewart
Stewart, do you really listen to what everyone tells you??
The search for the finest has been around for a long time and will continue to be around. I find myself willingly paying large sums for distinct quality differences in coins.The trick is not to pay large sums for indistinct differences!
amen ... the only set I have that even gets close to world-class in terms on grade is my Winged Liberty Set. I've tried to aquire only Gem's in the later dates ... but why do I want Gem's that are in 67 at $N x 7+++ when if I'm patient I can own virtually the same Gem (sometimes even a more attractive speciman of the coin, at least in some ways) in 65 for $N ... ???
Now granted, if the 67 coins are truely superb (and certainly some are), then I may want to step up to obtain the finest examples.
I guess the only other reason I would want to put the grade in front of the coin would be to be at or near the top of a registry.
BTW ... my new ICON coin is still raw and always has been (she's an old friend) ... and I have more like her. I enjoy the coins quite a bit more than the plastic they reside in.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Before PCGS it might have been worse. The only difference was you had to depend on your own eye and ability to grade and now you get a third party "opinion".
I think it is good for the hobby to have collectors with differing philosophies. After all, this is a free market economy and supply and demand is in effect. If there is a smaller supply of anything then the price will be higher and the actual price will be determined by how many want it.
Nothing new here. You should be thankful that there are collectors with big pocketbooks. How does that hurt anybody. Everyone is still free to collect what they like at prices they like.
You gotta love it. I doubt if very many big spenders are unaware of these dynamics. I've seen it in operation for many years and personally I think it is FUN!!!
<< <i>How can anyone besides Wondercoin call a Sacajawea or a Kennedy half dollar RARE ????????? >>
They're "rarer" than most Lincolns - by several magnitudes.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Sog - A 1958 is still modern Crap !!!!!
Pharmer - The pop of a 58 or a 73 D in ms 66 is enormous.At least in the 100's
How can anyone besides Wondercoin call a Sacajawea or a Kennedy half dollar RARE ?????????
Stewart >>
I said clearly to go through a bag and find one yourself. Of course it's enormous, they have all failed to get 67. Reread my post at your leisure. And yeah, why a 58 in 66? I made the first ever 58 in 67 many years ago, wish I had known you were going to be in the market, you could have saved a lot of money versus buying one now, if you can find one for sale.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Let people collect the moderns if they choose. The high prices for pop tops aren't just arbitrarily made up by sellers, they are in place because of the demand.
Bingo! Thanks, Dragon. I look at Liberty Nickels in MS 66 and just saw one in 6 offered for 6X the cost of a 5. Typically, the spread re type is 2.5-3X. It's often more for better dates (this one in particular is in between the two). I can't see paying this kind of multiple, unless you're comparing a better date which is a coffin in a 5 holder for a 6 which is a shot 7. And as we all know, this strategy is loaded with risk.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I don't believe (IMHO) that anyone disputes that (with any exception being a very few blatant market manipulation examples).
The point is though that the TPM that is Pop 1/0 today & selling for $2,750 (remember the '71-S Lincoln in '7?) will be a Pop 4/0 in the near future & sell for around a $1,000 all the while the seller claiming the pop will NEVER double to 8 - when it becomes a $500-750 coin - e.g.
Thus, the "hot potato/hold for a VERY long time to show a profit (if ever) that even resembles the rate of inflation theory"
<< <i>all the while the seller claiming the pop will NEVER double to 8 >>
Name a single seller who has ever flatly stated that the pops won't increase. Just one will do.
Russ, NCNE
The point is most people with the registry sets like the competition, and if they want to spend big money on moderns, that's fine with me, I'm not going to put them down.
I think your assumption that most who buy these coins as an "investment" is wrong. Most sensible collectors use discretionary funds for their coin purchases and don't think of them as investments.
ALL RIGHT......
Another MODERN arguement.
Just send your money over here duds and I'll quickly send you a finest known certificate.
What's the record of a modern lincoln penny now ????......about $50,000 or something.
Hmmm - is that a Freudian slip or what?
What's a Freudian slip??? Is that what Freud did on the banana peel?
Remember, TDN.....most big dealers do not respect these discussions.... Have a talk with that girl will ya
<< <i>
The Registry set mania is not responsible for the above as it has been in place since slabbing went into effect. But the pricing in moderns is nearly all attributable to Registry Set building. A factor of more than 3X to the next grade is a tough nut to swallow. It rarely occurs in type coins however. Exceptions are under 5% of the time.
roadrunner >>
I don't believe this is true. If you look at the prices of high grade Ikes you'll see they
have not increased that much since the registries started. With few exceptions these
haven't even doubled in price. Other coins may be up by a factor of a hundred or more
but not Ikes. I would attribute at least half the growth in all moderns to the simple fact
that these were rarely collected in the past so demand was scant. This increase was
taking place before the registries and it has continued since the registries began. It
seems unlikely that it can all be attributed to a single cause.
Also note that many times these high grade coins disappear into a black hole of demand
and do not appear in the registries.
<< <i>I start drawing the line at 3X or maybe 5X the cost of the lesser grade. On rare occasions do I venture above a 3X ratio for MS/PF coins. But the moderns have entered new territory where it is routine to find multiples of 50X to even 100X for a one grade change. Such a thing did not exist prior to the registries. Even an 1884-s dollar going from $200 in AU to $4000 in MS60 was one of the biggest spread coins. But at least this is the difference between a worn coin and an UNC one. The modern registries deal with 1 pt MS grade changes.
roadrunner >>
Some moderns are extremely scarce in only a slightly better grade. This is largely
invisable in most cases because only the highest grades are economical to submit,
but it takes place in the lower grades also. With modern manufacturing techniques
there is always a tendency that if something goes wrong it will go wrong in every
instance and this can prevail for the entire year.
This is visable at the high end of the spectrum which are the coins being submitted
and results in and explains the large jumps.
Obviously, many collectors will prefer to save their money and buy the lower grade.
edited for typos.
Stewart,
I have thought long and hard about this issue. It comes down to the registry and PCGS in my mind. Granted, not all collectors want the best coins they can afford for their set, but most do. PCGS has capitalized on this with an incredible marketing idea that has made them rich. At least with Lincolns, the registry has created "hundredth of a point mania" where collectors are willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars so that their set can be a hundredth of point better than another collectors. PCGS controls this with artificial numbers. Stewart, I know you and how you look at coins. I know for a fact that your 1958 in 66RD is a very nice coin. Do you think there is any appreciable difference between that coin and the 67RD you bought? There are hundreds of 58's out there like your 66RD. PCGS keeps the machine (the money machine) running by keeping supply and demand in check. Submissions keep pouring in from folks hoping to "hit" on a grade. It's just getting more out of control and is going to cost a lot of people a lot of money in the end.
Jack
Fortunately, my interests lie elsewhere.
Seriously, who the #$%%$^ cares what other people want to collect? If it doesn't interest you, leave it alone. I think these crusades against moderns are just ridiculous. I think some of the "education" given to modern collectors is really just a disguise for self-righteousness. I think the best thing is to let people enjoy what they enjoy and offer guidance and help when asked. I'm happy to have collectors around me who don't collect what I do to enrich my enjoyment of collecting by showing me coins I would never have thought to own myself.
For me, it is the sharing of numismatic enjoyment amongst collectors that accounts for most of my collecting happiness. If that wasn't there, I'd just sell what I got and move on.
The bottom line is that every coin in every series has a optimal collecting grade where a collector gets the most bang for his buck- he or she gets the highest quality without feeling like they overspent. Every series has coins that have dramatic price jumps between grades, and it has nothing to do with "modern crap"...
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>Real collectors set their own standards. Collectors with too much money for their own good chase supposed "finest known" moderns. Personally, I couldn't get excited about a post-1934 US coin no matter how nice it supposedly was. >>
Oh come on. Who said this was a modern bashing thread?
Those who don't like quality in moderns may not like moderns at all.
Perhaps the key word here is really "supposedly". If one can't grade
for himself then maybe he shouldn't be buying moderns but then again,
perhaps he should avoid buying any coins other than basal state or at
face value.
last four words added in edit.
K6AZ - High prices for modern pop tops ARE MADE UP.They are made up by the person who gets the grade.I know because I am one of the people who have made up some of the prices.Don't you realize there are targets who are known as "The Sucker Trade".I am also one of the "Sucker Trade".Demand my A$$ !!!
Jack The Knife - I still don't own a 1958 in ms 67 red.I don't know if I ever will because the price keeps getting higher.Even Gerry remarked to me that he is glad he doesn't have to chase any of the "modern P Mints in the 40's and 50's.Even Bender has gotten cold feet.
TDN - Your lucky that you don't collect or buy moderns as it is VERY COMMON for most pop tops in the 2000's to be $10 for an ms 68 and $1000+ for an ms 69.
Stewart
Making up a price is easy. Getting it sold at that price means theres demand.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I believe that I can bring structure to the craziness in pricing. I will offer 5% more than the price on the MS67's for all your MS68's. That should bring pricing in line and eliminate the premium for top coins.
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Any one puts their MS68RD Lincoln before 1941 at auction, You bet your A$$ I will be bidding on it. I am too lazy to search bags and bags of them to try to hit the mini lotto and get PCGS to grade one for me.
My 1932-D PCGS MS66RD Lincoln is a pop 154/4 coin and I'll bet that the pop in this one will not move too much. Now, the post '59 Linc's and especially the post '80's are destined to have the high-grade pops increase!! Do you think that a high price will bring out some rolls of these? Oh yeah......
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
<< <i>Gee - I've never seen a thread on this topic before!! The top grade modern pops are what they are at this time. (Subject to change....by a lot!!!)
My 1932-D PCGS MS66RD Lincoln is a pop 154/4 coin and I'll bet that the pop in this one will not move too much. Now, the post '59 Linc's and especially the post '80's are destined to have the high-grade pops increase!! Do you think that a high price will bring out some rolls of these? Oh yeah......
Mike >>
Exactly, but some of those '72 to '84 issues will have much smaller gains than most anticipate.
Say what you want about Modern Crap, but it was easy for me to find a PCGS High Relief MS 64 1921 Peace dollar 7 days ago, and I already have it.
I have been looking for a 2004 $25 Platinum proof PCGS 69 for weeks. I have tried ebay, teletrade, and posted a WTB on the BST board for 3 weeks and so far nothing.
Not all old coins are hard to find, and some Modern Crap is hard to find IMO. Got a MS68 Bison anyone? The mint sets comming out will have a different finish. Have fun, collect what you like and don't think the wife will understand.
I guess for me it's easier to justify paying 10 times the price for say, a MS66RD versus a MS65RD in an early Lincoln, that it is for an '80-'00 Lincoln. I still cringe though, even when I step up and pay the price in the early Lincolns for one point more. Of course, the coin has to be a PQ in the higher grade, but even then, it makes me nervous!!
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
We should all be asking, why are insane people buying condos in South Florida at $600,000 - $2,000,000 a pop? Now that is nuts!
Tyler
roadrunner
Expert Collector
Posts: 4837
Joined: Jan 2002
Saturday May 21, 2005 11:23 AM
You are not nuts. You can apply the same basic thought to say type coins. Do I want a beautifully toned Gem PF65+ seated quarter for around $1600-$2000 or pay $5000 for a superb PF67 or even $15,000 for a superb PF68? The differences are rather minute. The value in the PF65+ coin seem obvious. Sometimes I have to stretch my mind a bit to see the value in 67's and 68's when there are plenty of coins nearly as nice just one point less, for half to one third the price.
The Registry set mania is not responsible for the above as it has been in place since slabbing went into effect. But the pricing in moderns is nearly all attributable to Registry Set building. A factor of more than 3X to the next grade is a tough nut to swallow. It rarely occurs in type coins however. Exceptions are under 5% of the time.
roadrunner
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write a book roadrunner and they wiull buy it and I WILL BUY IT
if only one person is made aware and helped then it would have been worth it