What is going on with the Type market?

Prethen

I realize that coins with killer eye-appeal, truly rare, semi-key, key, and 69/70 stuff is going for stronger and stronger money, but what the heck is going on with the Type market?

In my myopic view of the market, when viewing current price lists and dealers' inventories, it appears that Type coins might actually be softening rather than strengthening with the supposedly growing collector base. Yes, collectors first start off in moderns, but where's all the action in the mid-grade circulated (VF+) Type coins? I've seen some relatively nice stuff in Seated material (not dollars though, can't find many of those), Large Cents, and even halfway decent 2-cent material going for around wholesale to the public. To be honest, I'm afraid to even look at eBay because those prices are likely even lower than what I've been seeing because those auctions tend to go to the bottom feeders (but not always). To add salt to these "wounds", in large part, most type series prices have barely budged in the past few years or so.

I keep hearing that dealers' inventories are "tight" and that there's no material. Yet, funny enough, when I do see material, I don't see the pricing pressure. Is there any pricing pressure on circulated 19th century type coins? Are they really so common that there's so much supply to cover the puny demand? I've often wondered at the true surviving numbers of some of the most common Seated stuff, along with 3CN and 2-centers and it boggles the mind that there really is still a bunch of supply out there....or is it just a virtually non-existent demand? What makes it more interesting is that the surviving number of non-problem coins and non-harshly cleaned coins is probably much smaller than most would believe.

I'm curious as to your thoughts on this, even if it's an area you don't care about, you might have some insight based on recent personal experience. Modern crap is doing gangbusters (apparently) but what's happening with the circulated 19th century stuff? Old hat? Not enough people care any more? They'd rather buy it for melt or less?

Bruce

OKbustchaser

Can't put it in a 69/70 holder and palm off on registry slaves.

Realistically, I have found nice VF/XF seated and bust material harder and harder to find. Like you I haven't noticed that much upward pressure on price. It also has to do with lack of dealer hype since they can't recertify and make a double profit on these pieces.

Jim

coinguy89

<< <i>Can't put it in a 69/70 holder and palm off on registry slaves.

Realistically, I have found nice VF/XF seated and bust material harder and harder to find. Like you I haven't noticed that much upward pressure on price. It also has to do with lack of dealer hype since they can't recertify and make a double profit on these pieces.

Jim >>



Agreed.

mirabela

I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of things, but it's certainly felt to me like those things in better AU have gotten more expensive in the last year.

KurtHorn

If you know anyone with Seated Stuff with "softening" prices... please send them my way!

Prethen

I might very well do just that, in a sense, but it'll be on the BST. I've recently bought some dimes through halves that have seen virtually no interest and this isn't dog-bottom crap, albeit common material.



<< <i>If you know anyone with Seated Stuff with "softening" prices... please send them my way! >>

Artist

I collect 20th century type and am not too familiar with 19th, still I have an observation:

It seems to me that with every coin, there is some spike in the price scale that usually hits around MS63 - MS64 depending on the series. Typically a coin may be worth $10.00 in G4, and move up incrementally to about $250.00 in MS63, and then double to $500.00 in MS64, and double again to $1,000.00 in MS65, and then be completely at the mercy of the pop reports in MS66 and up...

While high grade material has always commanded premiums, I think that this is even more true now given the influence of Registry Set collecting. Experienced collectors have a motivation to pay $$$ to build their sets, plus new collectors who migrate towards the classics after starting with moderns are already accustomed to a certain aesthetic. As a result, I just don't think the current market is really about coins south of that price spike.

An example that fascinates me is Barber coinage MS60 to MS62, which is just south of the MS63 price spike. Presently, the price of a Barber Half in MS60 is about $400.00, a number that hasn't moved since I first returned to this hobby three years ago. Plus, $400 is what I remember those costing back when I first got into collecting back in the early 1980s. Still, when it comes to collecting Barber halves in MS60 - MS62, their numbers are far fewer than their prices would suggest: presently there are over 1,300 Barber halves for sale on Ebay, yet only 1 of them is PCGS/NGC certified between the grades of MS60 and MS62.

BillJones

There never seems to be enough "no problem" 19th century type material around. The early coins (1793 to 1807) are really hard to find in all grades, even the coins with minor problems. No problem coins with good eye appeal are really tough and bring more than the listed values. As a dealer I can't buy these coins at the bid levels.

The later 19th century type coins are also in tight supply, although they are no where near as tough as early pieces. There are fair number of "problem pieces" (damaged, cleaned, polished, AT) around, but "no problem" raw pieces in the collector grades like VF and EF are in short supply. I can sell these coins fairly quickly when I am able to find them.

I'd say that this market should be in for a slow down sooner rather than later because it's been roaring for so long. Still, pieces that are attractive and sold for the grade are good buys if you can find them at fair prices.

ziggy29

<< <i>I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of things, but it's certainly felt to me like those things in better AU have gotten more expensive in the last year. >>

No question about it.

AgMe

Hello all,

I would think that many of the (new) modern collectors have been spoiled with the quality of the coins coming out of the mint; a PR69 DCAM is the minimum for many people.

-g

rhedden

Here are my observations, since my specialty is in 1793-1891 type coins- Bust, Seated and Large Cents. It works the same way as any other area of collecting: people want the rare and desirable material, not a box fulll of common junk! To draw a parallel to Morgan dollars, for example, let's say you walk around at a coin show and see lots of 1881-S dollars in MS-63 that aren't selling. Does that mean the Morgan dollar market is soft? Of course not- CC-mint coins and key dates might be going through the roof. The market in Seated and Bust material is no different: collectors and dealers both want the "good stuff"- killer high grade coins with beautiful toning and scarce or key dates- not common junk in average condition.

In the Seated series, there are certain dates of each denomination that are so common that every Seated collector already has one if not several. Examples: pretty much any common p-mint 1853-58 half dime, dime, quarter, half dollar; 1875-1877 p-mint dimes, quarters, and halves; and a few others like 1870-73 p-mint half dimes and 1871-72 circ. Seated dollars. I don't even look at these when they are offered because I can get one any day of the week. This is the material you see languishing at coin shows. It will still be common 50 years from now and has little potential for price appreciation. The same goes for the harshly cleaned junk you see floating around at shows- nobody wants it.

Now the key dates are a whole different story. Show me a dealer who has a 1796 half dime in a PCGS slab that he will sell for "Ask." Show me a fairly priced 1802 half dollar that has been sitting in a dealer's case for a year and didn't sell (hah). This is not just true for key dates- even the slightly scarcer coins are non-existent on the bourse floor. For example, I am looking for nice 1841-p and 1841-O half dimes in PCGS AU58 to MS-64. Anyone have one they'd like to offer? There's a list of about 20 others I'd like to get, but I never see them offered at fair prices.

In summary, the Type market is just as strong as any other segment of the coin market. The coins you see languishing at shows are common junk that has no reason to appreciate in value. You don't see better Seated or Bust material selling like hotcakes at shows because dealers usually don't have any to offer. If you dealers out there want to do better selling Seated and Bust material, go in search of the good coins that collectors need and don't stockpile the common dates in average condition.

OKbustchaser

The better dates to which you are referring though don't meet the definition of the OP's question. He asked about type coins not keys and semi-keys to a series.

Jim

billdauman

Only my novice opinion...but I feel the "coin market" is segmented:

1) Modern, registry set, top pop, no price concern market----problem current high demand with unknown true supply.

2)High grade/price,quality keys--always will have a demand and a known low supply.

Many of us can not enter or participate in these markets.

3)Type coins in either common date good grade that most can afford or collector grade coins---always in demand, available to those who are patient---but lower appreciation because they must be affordable to the masses for this hobby to survive.

Just my thoughts.

Bill

Prethen

"Rhedden":

I have to admit that after reading your post, I'm a bit bummed. I think you it the nail on the head. I've been buying type coins for resale, and I made the mistake that there's no such thing as JUNK Seated material. One other board member, in private, told me the same thing. I'm dumbfounded by the thought that ANY Seated stuff is truly junk, but that's not the reality of the market perception as you've pointed out. I'm bummed, because I've made a few financial "errors" in these purchases. I bought the stuff right, but I've miscalculated their attractiveness. If I hold onto it I might realize (wholesale) appreciation in time, because few are interested at retail, or I may get stuck if the market goes into a turnaround mode. It's an uneasy realization that I've been caught with my pants down so-to-speak. Hopefully this education won't be too costly in the end, but it makes sense now since I saw very little interest in that material in the past 3 shows I've been at....make that NO interest. Maybe it's the same thing with Large Cents too, because I'm finding the same situation.

Bruce

coachleonard

i'm not so sure of the 'nobody wants common circulated seated junk' theory. I do think, however, there is resistance to paying the current
listed RETAIL price of, say, $20 for a G-4 1853 seated dime or 1851 large cent. I think there's still a market for even such "common"
coins as they are still legitimate pieces of mid-19th century americana (and precious metal). But I think a lot of collectors can afford to
shop around so as not to pay the going recently-surged retail for such coins.

roadrunner

My own exsperience is that I can almost NEVER buy common circ or low grade MS seated stuff cheap enough. When I try to flip some of my "cheap" purchases to pay for gas money, I usually find that they are not desired unless priced at 60% or less of bid. For that reason I almost never buy this stuff any more. I would just assume stick to high end MS and PF type. And even that stuff is still not all that hot unless it is super eye appealling. Much of the stuff languishes because there is enough to go around, especially conserved NCS material. This conserved material just keeps on getting recycled. At some point the market will be saturated with it.

The type market is only strong in the upper echelons. That means key dates in problem free condition and PQ specimens of most type pieces. And since 80-90% of what sits in dealer's cases is graded optimistically by NGC & PCGS, it doesn't sell very quickly.

roadrunner

michael

I don't view the situation, as you describe it, as being a negative. Rather, I view this as a lucky break in a fickle market since I can still occassionally buy the attractive type coin without having to clear out my bank account.(thumbs up


As you mention, original type material is much tougher than most folks realize. However, it also appears that most folks don't care to buy original coins. This is not a slam on anyone, but have you ever noticed how many dipped type coins are in the Dansco type albums that so many folks on the PCGS boards display? Those coins hurt my eyes, yet they are the ones that generally garner the most lavish praise from many members.





I believe that the circulated price structure is held down by these dogs, just as the price structure for classic commems is held down by the enormous numbers of overgraded pieces in TPG holders. In both cases, the original and attractive coins should be worth considerably more, and are typically sold for much more to knowledgeable numismatists.


unbelieveable great answer the best i have ever heard as per the above

and last but not least

The tight type market, in my opinion, exists for these problem-free pieces and for attractive, original MS pieces. It does not exist for damaged circulated pieces or overdipped MS pieces, and that affects the overall price structure.

the above is from tomb across the street on the poor but numismatic side of town

michael

My own exsperience is that I can almost NEVER buy common circ or low grade MS seated stuff cheap enough. When I try to flip some of my "cheap" purchases to pay for gas money, I usually find that they are not desired unless priced at 60% or less of bid. For that reason I almost never buy this stuff any more. I would just assume stick to high end MS and PF type. And even that stuff is still not all that hot unless it is super eye appealling. Much of the stuff languishes because there is enough to go around, especially conserved NCS material. This conserved material just keeps on getting recycled. At some point the market will be saturated with it.

The type market is only strong in the upper echelons. That means key dates in problem free condition and PQ specimens of most type pieces. And since 80-90% of what sits in dealer's cases is graded optimistically by NGC & PCGS, it doesn't sell very quickly.

roadrunner



a really GREAT response as per the above SUMS THINGS UP REALLY WELL

topstuf

I suppose it's only natural that MODERNS would be the coins that are moving quicker. Cheaper ....and.....
since so many of the actual RARE coins are commanding huge premia for super surfaces, those who want to look at "surface" can find something in the modern arena.

Even color is relatively reasonably available in modern coins.

I would still rather HAVE a classic coin, but I can see the justification in collectors searching for pristine surface in late issue stuff.

I.....think..... it's a fad, but I thought the same about GSA dollars for years. They really weren't "rare."

Numbers game.