When will the silver rise end?
Punscoins
Posts: 113
Lately I have been stocking up on junk silver and silver bars, but I have stopped due to the current high prices.
What direction do you guys see this going in the near/distant future?
I've seen a few posts about this before, but my questions have never been specifically answered, so sorry to make another silver post.
Marc Vetsch
What direction do you guys see this going in the near/distant future?
I've seen a few posts about this before, but my questions have never been specifically answered, so sorry to make another silver post.
Marc Vetsch
They say you need to pray if you want to go to heaven.... but they don't tell you what to say when your whole life has gone to hell.
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Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
What direction do you guys see this going in the near/distant future? >>
Marc, in all seriousness.....If someone on this board actually knew the direction of the silver market tomorrow, why would they even want, or need, to associate with us?
Paul
experience much greater demand as technology absorbs increasing quantities
for increasing numbers of applications. It will not always be undervalued.
I have been told in the past and believe that once the price exceeds the base-line profitability level for mining and refining that refining of previously mined ore reserves almost immediately starts to ramp up to meet demand, and reserve ore mining starts to ramp production shortly thereafter if the price holds / continues to climb. As it becomes more and more profitable to mine and refine, production moves forward.
From a pure economic therory this only makes sense.
Naysayers to this understanding might say, "What about the boom? The price was well above the price to mine and refine in 1980!!"
The Hunt brothers scheme and the market frenzy impact they helped create happened very fast ... at time when production was not generally very profitable, and capital improvements to ramp production where nearly impossible for mining companies (remember 18% mortgages anyone??) ... so mining and refining was caught unprepared. By the time they could have caught up (and a few of them tried, and to a certain extent started to succeed if my history is correct, although they spent hard money for naught), the market had been saturated, and prices feel almost immediately.
It is important to note, then as now, that the unearthed supply is currently greater than the long-term demand.
Of course, as was also discussed ... if I knew the cycle of silver prices for just one year ... I could probably turn a thousand into a million quite easily.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Marc
<< <i>Chuck has a good point ... silver tends to reverse upward momentum as it becomes noticably more profitable for silver to be mined and refined.
I have been told in the past and believe that once the price exceeds the base-line profitability level for mining and refining that refining of previously mined ore reserves almost immediately starts to ramp up to meet demand, and reserve ore mining starts to ramp production shortly thereafter if the price holds / continues to climb. As it becomes more and more profitable to mine and refine, production moves forward.
From a pure economic therory this only makes sense.
Naysayers to this understanding might say, "What about the boom? The price was well above the price to mine and refine in 1980!!"
The Hunt brothers scheme and the market frenzy impact they helped create happened very fast ... at time when production was not generally very profitable, and capital improvements to ramp production where nearly impossible for mining companies (remember 18% mortgages anyone??) ... so mining and refining was caught unprepared. By the time they could have caught up (and a few of them tried, and to a certain extent started to succeed if my history is correct, although they spent hard money for naught), the market had been saturated, and prices feel almost immediately.
It is important to note, then as now, that the unearthed supply is currently greater than the long-term demand.
I never knew this before.... all you forum memebers are so much smarter than I.... maybe someday I'll be the one answering the questions!
I would just play the trend and not worry about it - i.e. I let my account balance tell me where prices are going. It never lies......
<< <i>The Hunt brothers scheme and the market frenzy impact they helped create happened very fast ... at time when production was not generally very profitable, and capital improvements to ramp production where nearly impossible for mining companies (remember 18% mortgages anyone??) ... so mining and refining was caught unprepared. By the time they could have caught up (and a few of them tried, and to a certain extent started to succeed if my history is correct, although they spent hard money for naught), the market had been saturated, and prices feel almost immediately. >>
That's not exactly the way it happened. The Hunt brothers didn't scheme anything. They actually did corner the market and ramping up mining takes years. That wasn't their plan anyway. Their plan was to call in all their chits and they already had most of the physical silver available. They knew the others couldn't meet their call.
The price didn't suddenly drop, our sleazy Congress critters changed the laws illegally to save the hides of Wall Street, Chase Manhattan, etc. or they would have gone belly up and the Hunts would have owned them.
Read "Beyond Greed" by Stephen Fay. It's out of print but readily available still.
What happened then isn't going to be happening again for a multitude of reasons, but he fact is that silver is a commodity that is needed at a rate which current production cannot meet. It's going to go up and down like anything else but I see an overall steady climb upward for several more years. Anyone who thinks $10 dollars is the limit is in for a surprise.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Actually if it hits $8.00 I will dump the hoard and wait for prices to adjust .....
.....yet again
Above is not offered as advice on any silver transactions
On my birthday?
<< <i>......to the MOON Very, Very, Very soon now
Actually if it hits $8.00 I will dump the hoard and wait for prices to adjust ..... >>
You have, of course, figured in the capitol gains taxes on such a move, I'm sure.
That's why I'm waiting quite a while longer to dump the big batch. I'll flip alot this year, just like last, but I continue to add profits to the central hoard waiting for that magic day to come along. When I finally bail, I'll be bailing on everything including my job. It will be time to relax and enjoy life.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Hmmm....maybe today? >>
It was down sharply in prehours trading. With the dollar down too it is set up for a spectacular one day move but it may not be until tomorrow or Thursday.