Interesting Whitlow article on the "cold, cold" short-set Walking Liberty half dollar mark

Mark

I found Mike Printz's article about the recent price and grade movements in the Walking Liberty half dollar short set interesting. To get to the article, click on my link above and then click on Mike's link (in the text on the page) to go to the article.

Does anyone else have comments?

Mark

kranky

I don't collect them, but I found the article interesting.

People need to be aware that this is something that can happen to any series that is available in quantity. Short-set Walkers and Mercs, mid-grade Morgans, Saints... not rare, but large outfits can manipulate the market. They quietly accumulate quantities of coins, slowly raising their bids. This puts the plus signs in the Greysheet. People start to notice and jump in. After the accumulation phase is over, they sell off the pile while the bids are still high, then drop their bids.

As the article suggests, if people see that something else is being promoted, it might be worth watching for opportunities. Just don't be the one left holding the hot potato at the end.

ARCO

I was just shocked, just shocked at the noted, grade inflation found in the late date walkers as opined by Mike Printz in the article. He states, "Consequently, there are MANY coins on the market which we do not feel are accurately graded. In fact, and to be blunt, there are a great number of coins on the market in 66, 67 and even 68 holders that just don't stand up to what we feel the standards should be for these grades."

With escalating prices in MS, collectors had really better know how to grade the series they collect instead of relaying too heavily on the holdered grade.

Interesting stuff. A portend for future declines in other series?

Tyler

Sunnywood

Indian head quarter eagles in MS63-MS65 have gone up about 100% over the last two years for precisely this reason.

Best,
Sunnywood

coinguy1

I think the article sums things up quite nicely and accurately.

I had thought (and even went on record as saying something to the effect) that based upon population and price comparisons, pre-short set dates seemed to be better relative values compared to the short-set issues.
Link to thread I had started about better relative value of pre-short-set issues

Great popularity and "collectibility" of the short-set Walkers was partly responsible, as was the large price run-up we had seen.

I firmly believe that there will be more minus signs on the sheets, as published prices catch up to lower bids. I'd recommend that collectors use this weakness as an opportunity to start patiently looking for the examples you want/need and then hopefully be able to acquire them at even lower levels in the not-too-distant future.

MrEureka

An interesting and recent development worth noting is that this west coast dealer has now begun what appears to be a promotional effort involving the mid-year dates, those dates from 1934 through 1940.

Mike's comment above. Although the middle dates do represent much better value, that's been true for at least 20 years. I also wonder if the flurry of red ink in the short set will cause the "west coast dealer" to lose much credibility with his client base, the very people to whom he will be marketing the middle dates. That could cause the promotion to fall flat on its face.

kranky

<< <i>Although the middle dates do represent much better value, that's been true for at least 20 years. I also wonder if the flurry of red ink in the short set will cause the "west coast dealer" to lose much credibility with his client base, the very people to whom he will be marketing the middle dates. That could cause the promotion to fall flat on its face. >>



I guess it would depend on who they are being promoted to. A lot of people who buy coins never realize what's happened to their investment. Their heirs do, though.

BillJones

I've been building a short set of Walking Liberty half dollars for one of my customers. I can tell you that the grading all over the place. Many of the MS-64 coins that I have sold him are better some of the MS-65 graded pieces that I have seen. The MS-64 coins are MUCH cheaper, and usually I have to pay over bid and often over ask for really nice pieces. I could have purchased MANY MS-65 coins for bid or less. The overgraded ones are a drug on the market, and that's why they so cheap and their bids are moving lower.

Elcontador

This sort of thing has been going on since I first ventured into numismatics 30 plus years ago, and probably long before that. We have a saying in Spanish for this, but as it isn't "G Rated," I won't put it in this forum.

Tangentially related to this subject, I wonder when they are going to stop hyping cleaned Bust $s? It has been going on for at least the last three years.

FinallyHere

A fellow board member was kind enough to let me know about this thread so I thought I'd stop in and first thank those that took the time to read the Walker article. It's an article I've been trying to get to for a month and I feel bad I was not a bit quicker with it......oh well...better late than never as they say.

Andy is correct in that the mid dates have always represented better "value" but one can't deny the popularity of the late dates. They are "attainable" for many collectors and it does "satisfy" the desire to own a collection of one of our most beautiful designs.

I also wonder if the flurry of red ink in the short set will cause the "west coast dealer" to lose much credibility with his client base, the very people to whom he will be marketing the middle dates. That could cause the promotion to fall flat on its face.

The comment above is Andy's and I thought about this a great deal when I added that last tid bit to the article. On the other hand, why not let those that may not be aware know what they should know.

Thanks again to those that took the time to read the article.

Best wishes,

Mike

BigGreek

I've been building a short set over the last six months and I have to agree that the grading
(even with PCGS holdered coins) in the 64-66 range is *very* inconsistent. This is especially
true of blue holders older than 6 months. I do believe that PCGS has tightened up their
grading considerable in the last few months. Coincidentally (?) they have also changed their
holder design just recently. Everyone collecting short set Walkers should look carefully at
what they are buying regardless of the holder. The next time I go to a show I will be
bringing some "key-date" cash as I'm sure dealers will be eager to sell.

Russ

Good thing I sold my short set a while back. At 50% over Greysheet. To a dealer. Damn, I look like a genius!

Of course, it was pure luck.

Russ, NCNE

FinallyHere

Damn, I look like a genius!

I don't know Russ......you kinda look like a varment to me based on your icon image....

On a serious note though......looks like you done good young man.

tonphil1960

I am working on a Walker Short Set now, only have a few so far. I am collecting all in 64, affordable and very nice coins. If you are carefull and pick only premium coins in this grade you can build a beautiful collection. A good collection for someone on a budget like myself.

Regards Tony

Russ

<< <i>I am collecting all in 64, affordable and very nice coins. >>



That's the grade I built mine in.



<< <i>If you are carefull and pick only premium coins in this grade you can build a beautiful collection. >>



Absolutely!

Russ, NCNE

tonphil1960

Yes, affordable and beautiful coins, how can you go wrong?

Tony

michael

i love the short set walkers if they are ms66 or above and have thick original skins never dipped with rainbow toned rims and tremendous eye appeal

then you donot have to worry about price decreases on such coins

only price increases

average overgraded even correctly graded blast white dipped coins those are a great no no

michael