Do you think the market will ever reject 3rd Party Grading?
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
Do you think the market will ever say that grading is too subjective and it just doesn't make sense or matter what grading number is on the slab? Of course, "everyone" buys the coin and not the holder, but do you think that eventually people will actually do this?
Do you think there is a future market in merely authenticating a coin, rather than putting a grade on it? I think that some of the first grading firms did this, and some may still do it today. My question is based off of a conversation that I had the other day with a dealer in the south. He was selling coins in original PCGS holders and he said the grades on the holders were completely different from today's standards. I asked if people get the coins reholdered in that situation, and he responded that it just didn't matter, because the coin will be graded under whatever standard there is in place at the future sale date, and it doesn't matter what is on the holder.
I was thinking what a waste of money it was to get the coins graded in the first place, if the grading standards change over time. Similarly, will the coins that are graded today become irrelevant in 5-10 years because of changed standards? If so, is the current slabbing craze for the benefit of collectors or grading companies?
What do you think?
Do you think there is a future market in merely authenticating a coin, rather than putting a grade on it? I think that some of the first grading firms did this, and some may still do it today. My question is based off of a conversation that I had the other day with a dealer in the south. He was selling coins in original PCGS holders and he said the grades on the holders were completely different from today's standards. I asked if people get the coins reholdered in that situation, and he responded that it just didn't matter, because the coin will be graded under whatever standard there is in place at the future sale date, and it doesn't matter what is on the holder.
I was thinking what a waste of money it was to get the coins graded in the first place, if the grading standards change over time. Similarly, will the coins that are graded today become irrelevant in 5-10 years because of changed standards? If so, is the current slabbing craze for the benefit of collectors or grading companies?
What do you think?
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
0
Comments
42/92
Cameron Kiefer
<< <i>No.
Cameron Kiefer >>
Yeah, maybe to some extent, but not completely... and like I said, only in certain areas...
42/92
I (obviously) know the dealer and circumstances of which you speak. I have purchased two coins in PCGS rattler holders, priced at grades considerably higher than those on the holders, and I intend to keep the coins as they are.
I think that eventually the change in standards will slow or even stop. Remember, the change is one direction: gradeflation. It almost cannot be other direction because if there were a measurable change toward grade deflation by the TPGs, PCGS and NGC would have to buyback an awful lot of overgraded coins!
For me, I try to buy the coin, not the holder (I know, it's trite!). The grade on the holder is only the starting point for how I grade the coin, and for circulated gold coins, I give nice, original coins a bump in value, if not grade.
But it sure seems to have taken hold even in this area. So, no I don't think so.
For the most part it's a real positive.
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
i doubt the market as a whole entity would reject 3pg's out of hand. even i don't, since they provide a valuable authentication service (the grading, i could do w/out)
K S
K S >>
Correct for LOW grade material
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I can assure you that it would have taken a lot more than YOUR opinion to convince me to pay $207K for that 93-s pcgs64 Morgan that was in the recent Heritage FUN auction if that coin was raw instead of slabbed.
<< <i>Do you think the market will ever reject 3rd Party Grading? >>
Hey, you all can pull your heads out of the sand now! The MAJORITY of collectors still do. Take notice that I said "still", because thats how it is!
Most collectors don't have their heads swollen by some registry set mania!
Ken
We know there are still pitfalls but not nearly as many without TPGS.
<< <i>majority of collectors ARE filling albums & simply do not want their coins slabed.
Correct for LOW grade material >>
contrary to what hyped-up auctions would have you would believe, the HUGE MAJORITY of the market is NOT super-duper mega-maxi-graded coins!
<< <i><<<you bet, in fact, i think a VAST MAJORITY of the market rejects 3pg's. example: despite what some plastic-hazed people think, the majority of collectors ARE filling albums & simply do not want their coins slabed.">>
I can assure you that it would have taken a lot more than YOUR opinion to convince me to pay $207K for that 93-s pcgs64 Morgan that was in the recent Heritage FUN auction if that coin was raw instead of slabbed. >>
really??? so you actually believe that the MARKET, or even the MAJORITY of THE MARKET is comprised of $200,000 coins???
i hardly think so
it's a really, really sad commentary when you actually believe that "THE MARKET" = super-duper grade coins in plastic.
K S
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
contrary to what hyped-up auctions would have you would believe, the HUGE MAJORITY of the market is NOT super-duper mega-maxi-graded coins!
K S >>
Who said only gems are MOSTLY only accepted in slabs? ( I'm ignoring your other comment as it's a non starter)
I merely stated the fact that the vast majority of collectors will only put "low" grade material in albums which is contrary to what you posted.
And even a lot of that is based on simple economics where it just doesn't make any sense to pay a slabbing fee for a 20 dollar coin.
But many of those collectors would still "like" to see those coins in slabs as well.
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
However, there are likely to be massive changes in what they do and how they operate.
Eventually collectors will insist on having coins graded instead of priced. When the coins
are actually graded on absolute standards much of the grading will be done by computer.
They'll still be authenticated and finalized by people for a long long time.
There are areas where grading might never be popular but most all world and US coins
will be graded so long as they are worth the cost of encapsulation.
I don't think I ever said that or that I even believe that, BUT high end high dollar coins ARE a part of the market and to spend that much money on a raw coin based on ANYONE's opinion without a guarantee behind it is very risky indeed.
Yes - one day the masses will rise up and the streets will flow with the blood of the non-believers
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
The coin that was BU when you bought it was an Unc. when it was sold. If you sold it to a dealer, it was then sold to the next collector as BU. The only exception is that you might luck out and get what your coin was worth from a private party, typically at a bid board or maybe an auction.
You had to go through LOTS of coins to find one that wasn't cleaned, whizzed, or defaced in a Santeria ceremony.
I have plenty of issues with TPGs. But, they act as a form of insurance / safety net on a coin when you buy or sell it. If it's slabbed, you don't have to worry whether it is genuine. And if it's cleaned, doctored, etc., either the coin is market acceptable (I won't knowingly buy a coin like this, but some doctors are good) so you can at a minimum sell it at bluesheet or the TPG company will cut you a check.
For me, the number on the slab is the starting point, and this saves me time, because my main issue is whether I agree with the number on the slab. From there it's a matter of price.
I respectfully disagree with RYK, because without gradeinflation, you wouldn't have all of the submissions re potential upgrades, crackouts, etc. The TPGs won't be in business for long unless they get a steady stream of submissions, and most of the new coins getting slabbed are moderns. If, say, there is universal agreement re what constitutes a Barber Half in MS 65, once it's slabbed, it would not be resubmitted for an upgrade, either in holder or cracked out.
As a practical matter, these days, if you bought a coin more than a few years ago and plan to sell it, it's probably best to know what is considered the coin's current grade & the next grade up shortly prior to its sale. My last comment is that a nice coin will get what it's worth, not the number on the holder, if it has enough market exposure.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>The coin that was BU when you bought it was an Unc. when it was sold. >>
I used to have that problem as a kid at the local coin shop, and the worst part is it was the same guy grading it when I went to sell as when I bought it.
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
If you recall, coins from the Garrett, Eliasberg, Norweb and Pittman auctions were sold unslabbed and they brought pretty strong prices, especially the really neat coins. Norweb's 1893S Dollar eventually graded MS67 and Eliasberg's graded MS65.
No. There will always be SOME individuals willing to pay for grading opinions and guaranties. However, third party grading procedures and technologies will undoubtedly evolve and almost completely redefine the very nature of third party grading. When that happens, the market will reject the obsolete methods and the grades derived from those methods.
It will be interesting to see which of today's TPG leaders, if any, will do what it takes to remain the market leaders.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I would suspect this applies to coins valued from $50-100 and up.
It never hurts to get a 2nd opinion. 99% of the coin buying public are not technically proficient at market grading, not even in their own series. Dorkkarl's comments about $200,000 coins is absurd.
And in my opinion the majority of the value in the coin market, traded on an annual basis, is for slabbed coins ($25 and up).
There is still a place for raw coins and even raw auctions for worthwhile material (i.e. Logan, Queller). But less and less material is going that route. The interesting thing about sales like Queller, is that there are lots of scores and lots of losers, and some in between. A far different spread imo than what you see in a slabbed auction. To those buyers than can grade tightly, they have a field day at such events. But if the coins had all been slabbed first, the number of losers would be far less, a bid plus for those who want to play but cannot grade with the best. I would bet that Logan bought some of his coins slabbed even if he later cracked them out, esp. on the unc coins. Having another opinion never hurts esp. if you aren't paying for it.
roadrunner
I think TPG with all it's warts has been a service that will not and should not disappear.
I suspect it will evolve further possibly with efforts to increase objectivity, accuracy or precision. How to enhance objectivity of the eye appeal component of market grade is a challenge.
I would not be shocked to read of a major scandal reported with enhanced regulation demanded by a disappointed and "shocked" public.
Nevertheless, Coin collecting and dealing in rare coins involves too many and too much money crosses palms to return to the "bad old days".
If you recall, coins from the Garrett, Eliasberg, Norweb and Pittman auctions were sold unslabbed and they brought pretty strong prices, especially the really neat coins. Norweb's 1893S Dollar eventually graded MS67 and Eliasberg's graded MS65">>.
That might well be true BUT those were not ordinary coins from ordinary collections so they brought good money largely because of a traceable pedigree. I can imagine that a fake 93-s that fooled Eliasberg might bring strong money just on its notariety alone whereas one that fooled you or me probably would not. I was thinking of more ordinary collectors such as myself and lots of others here. All you really need to do is look at how some of the raw stuff on the BS&T boards gets raked over the coals or the what do you think of this coin or guess the grade post here on this forum. Most collectors will be better off buying higher value $100 and up coins in ngc, pcgs or anacs holders unless you are one of those who think they are a better grader than the TPG's I mentioned.
David
List the coin for auction RAW.
List the coin for auction in a PCGS or NGC holder. Lets assume that the coin is a no brainer for the grade whether raw or slabbed.
Crack out the coin and list it for auction raw with the statement that it used to be a PCGS or NGC ms 65. Pics of the raw coin only allowed.
Crack out the coin and list it for auction raw with the statement that it used to be a PCGS or NGC ms 65. Pics of the raw coin AND the coin in the slab allowed.
It would be interesting to see if a trend would develop over time if a number of coins could be listed in this manner. I think its safe to say that raw coins on eBay generally bring less than similar top tier TPG slabbed coins do but how much more is a bit tough to quantify.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>It will be interesting to see which of today's TPG leaders, if any, will do what it takes to remain the market leaders >>
ANNOUNCING!! ........WHIP-A-GRADE.....
If any coin in a WAG slab is EVER looked at with derision or scorn, the submitter may personally come to the grading office and WHIP the principals of the corporation.
Economy rate: $200 per submission........12 yr turnaround.
Mike
It all depends on what you paid BEFORE it was slabbed!