Your prediction for the end of the bull coin market

nwcs

I know that different series have different market cycles, but when do you expect that the end of this current upturn in the market will actually end (as all things do)?

Louis

March 05

nwcs

That soon? I wouldn't think it would slow down till the end of next year.

ultradmpldollars

Late Spring 05, somewhere around there.

RYK

I predict that FUN will be a bit of a disappointment and deflate the bull. There is way too much hype and way too many coins. When everyone knows the outcome of an event (ie. the HUGE predicted success of FUN '05), there is great likelihood that the outcome will surprise.

fountainheadgold

2 to 3 years, there is a hugh amount of dollars pouring into the coin market, the state quarter program had a giant effect on coin prices. most of the newbies will branch out into older coins. I see hugh increases in the art and antique world for the better stuff, same is true for the coin market. the better stuff always does best.

Tonekiller

<< <i>2 to 3 years, there is a hugh amount of dollars pouring into the coin market, the state quarter program had a giant effect on coin prices. most of the newbies will branch out into older coins. I see hugh increases in the art and antique world for the better stuff, same is true for the coin market. the better stuff always does best. >>

.

I agree,


2-3 years....the build up has been steady. I do not think FUN 05 will be a "white Hot" show but I also do not think it will be bad either.

TBT

elwood

<< <i> predict that FUN will be a bit of a disappointment and deflate the bull. >>


Do you mean the bourse or the auctions??

Many dealers are not expecting a great FUN because of the location change. I know quite a few collectors that usually attend but are skipping it this year.

tradedollarnut

I'm not coming to FUN because it's not in Orlando. There's also not a whole lot in the auctions for me. Oh, sure - one or two great coins, but everyone wants 'em and the prices are going to go crazy.

IMO, the prices are starting to outpace the quality.

FC57Coins

The day before I decide to sell

K6AZ

Soon, very very soon, as in before summer. Some dealers would like you to believe this is different from all the other runups in the past, but it isn't. Just look at what Heritage is auctioning off.

mrearlygold

It's not going to end for all coins in all series at the same time.


Tom

OnlyBuffalos

I have no idea when the bull market will end. But I think one needs to distinguish at least between the high end market and the the rest of the coin market.

"The rest of the market" likely represents 90% or more of the collecting public and is characterized by people putting together collections in grades generally shunned by investors, speculators, and registry participants. The coins that make up this market are very rarely seen in the glossy auction catalogues. This market moves upward in a slow steady pace if at all. The key and semi-key dates of such collections do quite well as there is solid competition for those dates while the common dates generally languish. In my opinion there is very little correlation between this market and the high end market. I believe the outlook for this market's key and semi-key dates will generally remain strong because there is more of a commitment to continue to collect and market dips are seen as an opportunity rather than as a tragedy. I also believe the collectors in this arena enjoy numismatics at least as much as those who only participate at the high end. Saving enough money to finally purchase that one coin that one has desired for a long time and then finding it in the condition desired brings a different excitement than being able to buy any coin at any time one wants.

michael

truly scarce special coins with great eye appeal that are value coins that are bought by collectors with discretionary income will continue to do well and this is less than 25% of the market

the other 75% of the market who knows?

michael

longtimecollector

Thought about this today........ The end is coming......... When we run out of "Babyboomers" !!!!!!! I'm thinking 2035........ Not that the market is gonna tank then or before, but there are MILLIONS of boomers with GAZILLIONS of dollars now about to hit retirement....... They're at their earnings peak as we speak, and will have disposable income for quite a few new years........ The LARGEST demographic group in the country is about to go shopping !!!!!!!!

Coppernicus

I agree with longtimecollector - the absolute peak will be when the tail end of the babyboomers either die or need to liquidate to afford their long-term care. Somewhere around 2025 or so. Until then, there will be some smaller cycles but the trend won't reverse anytime soon, IMHO.

Mike

CoinOnTheCob

I think that new people are continuing to come in to this hobby; like me, for example. I became interested in older coins because my kids are interested in the state quarters. I don’t think there is enough attrition to kill the hobby.
New people need to stay interested after the disappointing shock. And that shock is the revelation that just because a coin they own is old, it isn’t valuable; and, the bicentennial quarters they have been pulling out of circulation for 28 years are worth 24 ½ cents a piece. If they can get past that, as I did, they’re in!

ksteelheader

It has already begun. Look at all the stuff going up for auction!


And not selling!

BAJJERFAN

Well I have noticed that common date Morgans in 63/64 toned or otherwise seem to sell fairly readily so, bull market aside, why are people buyin stuff like that?

nwcs

Interesting thoughts, guys. As I think about my own prognostications I remember what someone said about football. If you coach to please the fans, pretty soon you're sitting with them. Makes me wonder if we collect according to the market how soon we may be cashiered from the market. Even so, this is a strong market overall and it's been my observation that the stream isn't quite ready to go. If FUN is bad, people would simply disregard it and look forward to Baltimore or Long Beach. But if multiple large shows are bad, that's when I think we'll start hearing about the end more. And that is why I'm beginning to think a year from now we'll know which side of the market we're in.

291fifth

For many segments of the market it already has. Only the very best material can still be considered "hot" and that makes up just a tiny fraction of the overall coin market.

tradedollarnut

I think that all the stuff coming up in auction is a poor indicator of an 'end' to the market - but rather an indication of a healthy market. Sometimes supply actually enhances demand. The Eliasberg sale is widely credited as the start of our current bull market. Using the previously professed logic, why didn't it signal an even bigger drop in the market since it was a great collection coming up for sale?

Prethen

Funny thing is, I don't believe the coins I collect really ever experienced a Bull Market. Well, I guess technically they did during those bizarre days in the early 80's. I collect 2-cent/3-cent business strikes and proofs and half dime proofs. The 20-cent coins might be an exception to that; their values did a pretty decent rise over the past couple of years and fortunately/unfortunately I might have bought at the top of the that rise.

Early proofs are my true love right now. They are total underdogs. I'd love to see them actually get involved in the "Bull Market". Fat chance, huh? Oh, well.

Shamika

I know I'm probably wrong, but I just don't see how the market can support the amount of material that are seeing lately.

I suspect that a lot of the money that was driving the market is know bailing out. Thus the huge number of coins coming to market.

THE END IS COMING!

tradedollarnut

I suspect that a lot of the money that was driving the market is know bailing out. Thus the huge number of coins coming to market.

Nah. I know 4 billionaires that are still buying all they can get their hands on. The rest of us peons are just waiting for the right coins.

Auctions are the place to sell now.... people see moon money and want to participate - instead of privately placing their collection with a dealer. So the turnover in collections is more visible. Additionally, the market is much, much bigger so the sales are much, much bigger. The market is healthy.

Shamika

tradedollarnut,

I hope you are right. Or maybe I hope you are wrong.

keets

march 2010.

al h.

FatMan

I believe the bull market has a long way to go. Sure there will be some bumps in the road and I wouldn't be surprised if we hit one next month with all the material coming to market in the auctions. But the raging bull has really been relegated to the higher end material to date. The broad market has been luke warm at best with only pockets of impressive movers. Once you see bull type gains in the mid range common stuff you can then begin talking about the end being near. Until then expect the bull to run.

koby

I have read that we are in year number two of a four year up cycle

scher

Seems healthy to me..I would say a couple of years at least..Lots of new $$ around for some reason and seems like more collectors than ever to me..Maybe some series might back off a bit others jump up a bit..but overall i say its still all up from here..
Bruce Scher

coltgus

I think this decade is going to be like the 1970s so I think we've got a long way to go. Say 2010. Gold and other precious metals could be at all time highs ( quoted in U.S. dollars ). Hope I'm still around to see if my prediction is correct.

Sunnywood

The Eliasberg sale is widely credited as the start of our current bull market.

Hogwash !!! While the Eliasberg sales and the state quarters program have certainly increased awareness of coins at both ends of the value spectrum, this market is clearly driven by exogenous (i.e. non-numismatic external economic) factors. I don't buy that the Eliasberg sale provided enough supply to jumpstart a bull market. I give the rise of Ebay and the internet much more credit. But most of all, there is simply nowhere else to put money. Bond yields are low, and bond values will fall if interest rates rise. Low interest rates have driven real estate through the roof and created bubble-type markets in many areas. The stock market is lackluster, moving sideways, and likely to suffer adversely if rates rise. The dollar has fallen 30% and has less buying power than ever (although certain fools would have you believe that this is somehow good for the economy - imagine, your principal asset declines in value, and you are told to believe that is good.) Conversely, commodities, including gold have risen. Yet the global economy is striving ... and all that new money has absolutely nowhere to go.

By the way, I always found the notion of a connection between the value of gold bullion and the prices of numismatic gold coins to be absurd. How could anyone claim that the increase in Indian $2.50, for example, is driven by gold prices. Nonsense. It is driven by hoarding, mass marketing via Blanchard and others, hype, and market manipulation. There ain't much bullion in a quarter eagle.

Rare coins will always have value to collectors and hobbyists. But when the investors, ad hoc vest pocket dealers, speculators, et al. realize that the coins they are hoarding (in the hopes of flipping them for a profit) have VERY LITTLE INTRINSIC VALUE except to hobbyists, then we are done. It is a classic market cycle. Nothing new. Has happened countless times in countless areas over centuries. WILL it end? You bet your posterior it will. However .... WHEN will it end? That is much harder to say. The internet has had a tremendous impact and resulted in increased demand ... but eventually the external economic factors will bring it down.

Best,
Sunnywood

coinkat

Watch interest rates and other investment alternatives and their relative safety... Interest rates will have to rise to support a weak dollar. I still think that stocks have not warmed up yet to catch the attention of everyone, but that could literally change overnight.

Elcontador

Sunnywood makes a lot of sense. When the non-coin people who are putting obscene amounts of money into our hobby think there's a better place for their money to go, the high end of the rare coin market will look like a souffle after someone sticks a fork in it.

You'll see something similar, albeit to a lesser extent, when coin people balk at paying ever increasing prices for the high end coins.

It will happen; it always does. When? I don't have crystal ball, and I don't worry about it.

RGL

Don't mean to be a downer, but ... economy and coin market both continue, thank you, until the next terrorist attack on the U.S. -- and it is coming. When that will be, however, is anyone's guess...

morgannut2

I thick TDN's point has merit in the sense the massive # of auction coins actually may help inspire people

to nearly finish the collections/start a new series/upgrade. The market will break when the Fed. pushes interest rates higher

to offset the declining dollar vs. Euro. Then the market will split between high end coins(strong) ans the rest of the

MS-60+ "stuff" which will stagnate, then drop substancially due to overbought dealer inventory.

lclugza

I say the bull market.. endeed in 1989. What we have now may just be a bear market rally- only certain "hyped" coins are going up- 1936 Proof halves, key dates, CC dollars. Looks like the old tulip bulb market to me. If you are holding coins with the intention of selling them soon for a profit, I say sell the "hyped" coins now.

roadrunner

There are still too many effects taking hold that will help this market along for another 2-5 years:

Gold price running up (this has years left). Coins will not falter while gold is running up. And gold will run as long as we have all the current economic problems. The dollar has to end its slide to even have a chance of reversing gold.

Strong inflation is still to come following all the easy money printed and loaned out in the past 4 years.

Until interest rates are in the double digits you won't see much of a slowing in this market.

Too many blue chip areas of the coin market have not participated in this "bull" ..... later bust, seated, Barber, nickel and copper type, Morgans, Peace dollars, classic commems, etc. These tend to be the more speculative areas, especially in higher grades. They attract the speculators and late-to-the-party investors. Not enough of them are here yet. Every strong market of the past 30 years has been lead by type coins....but so far not this one. Type still has to play a role imo.

The one true indicator that has worked in the past is the true tolling of a deep recession. If that occurs, the party may end prematurely.
But since the FED wants to inflate, the recession may be held off for a few years.

roadrunner

Bear

A candle always seems to burn brighter before the end.

Fun will be OK. The market will continue on an upward

trend for selected super grade classic and super rare coins and around

the end of 2005, it will just stop. Buyers will be scarce and prices will

just sort of hang out there as a fine mist. For the next two years

prices will trend lower and high grade coins will go back into hidding.

Expect to see more coins of lower grade start filling the auction catalogues

starting about the summer. If true, it is not the end of the world, nor will the drop

be catastrophic . Its just your normal ebb and flow of the coin bussiness. Excessive

enthusiasm seems to appear closer to the end then the beginning of a boom.

Truth of the matter, nobody knows anything for sure. These are just opinions. Some may be

correct, some may be wrong and some may be only dreams and wishful thinking. We shall

see what we shall see.

ccex

Before June, 2005.

Gold may increase (because of a weak dollar), but this doesn't affect the price of most collector coins sitting in dealers' inventory. The best rarities will continue to bring high prices at auction from the wealthy few who can afford them, but I expect it will be more difficult to sell common coins after a couple of weak shows.

My collection is not made of the kinds of coins which have been promoted heavily in the last couple of years. If I had CC Morgans, registry-set-quality moderns or monster toned PCGS coins I would be selling them now. Instead, I look forward to upgrading my collection again in a few months.

Baley

Every day, another collector learns how to photograph his coins and post the pictures on the internet.

The value of eye appealing coins will continue to increase for a long long time, in my opinion.