The Heritage FUN Sale
STEWARTBLAYNUMIS
Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭
I was told from a very reliable source the Heritage FUN Sale will consist of 9,000 lots in14 sessions and is expected to bring in excess of $60,000,000
Holy $hit !!!!!
Stewart
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What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
How do they find enough time for that many... run them continuously throughout the day, every day?
The auction line-up for FUN is Amazing!!!! Heritage, Superior and ANR are selling some Great coins.
<< <i>IT LOOKS LIKE EVERYONE WANTS TO SELL WHEN THE GOING IS GOOD. >>
In spite of the strong market, smoe stuff like 79-cc and 93-cc Morgans in au-55/58 are still very scarce. Prices are still higher for many coins in the Morgan series than they were a year ago and the better stuff will bring good money.
Looking forward to seeing the action at fun! See you there, Stewart.
I held the 3 Brasher Doubloons and the 1894S 10C .
So did I!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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my first POTD award 7/16/05
the cat ate my blue fish.
The number of coins coming to market could also indicate that the current owners will not be part of any new paradigm in coin valuations. But a bird in the hand is hard to pass on.
roadrunner
Keep an eye on the last day or two of those auctions in case prices are strong. Some bargains just might be had.
Someday a huge auction will happen and few will bid but the bottom feeders
and pond scum suckers.
Camelot
Count me in!
Camelot
that the quality of coins in recent sales has been declining. Perhaps the
cream has already been removed from the milk.
Camelot
This has to be a creshendo. They can't make catalogs any freakin' bigger!
Seriously, I think it will settle back down by mid next year into a normal but healthy volume. This will not be a crash, but just a volume correction. I think a lot of coins are being thrown out there to see what the bring. The real answer will lie with how many are really sold -- if you can get to a *real* number there. $60 mm doesn't mean anything if it doesn't meet reserve and change hands.
Camelot
Nah, Heritage is an old pro at this game. They just will have 86 or 87 different catalogues. The poor dealers and collectors just won't have any room for their clothes since since their catalogues will take up all the space.
Probably doesn't include the $10-15 million (so far) in the bullet sale?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Perhaps with this much time we can do a little preparation to analyze this sale.
This might give us all an indication of what kind of market we are in.
Here are some start up questions that might help in our analysis.
Are many of the coins still being bought by dealers for further speculation?
Are many of the coins sold to long-term collectors?
Are many of the high-end coins being bought by the very rich to be put away for long term?
Are many average collectors now priced out of the market on lower grade rarer coins?
Is this the largest combined dealer sale of all time?
How many coins will remain unsold after the sale?
I am sure that any analysis will be incomplete simply due to the nature of secrecy surrounding sales of this kind, but with so many of us watching and gathering intel perhaps we can develop a partial picture of how the sale goes down.
Sooner or later the dealers must hit the wall on their bidding. Many of them have to be getting a little nervous.
Perhaps I am wrong but it appears to me that Heritage is buying a lot less coins for their permanent inventory than they were last year. Last year at this time I could pull up their BUY NOW section in Capped Bust halves and find 40 to 60 coins to look at, now there are always less than a hand full. Today there are 13.
If I'm looking for a gem seated half they often won't even have one.
I just assumed they were making the transition to full time, all-american, "everything" auctioneer and coin trader, and leaving the inventory bare. This certainly cuts their risk when the next market "thud" occurs and frees up $$ millions for other uses.
roadrunner
<< <i>Heritage has had a sub-standard inventory for quite some time now.
If I'm looking for a gem seated half they often won't even have one.
I just assumed they were making the transition to full time, all-american, "everything" auctioneer and coin trader, and leaving the inventory bare. This certainly cuts their risk when the next market "thud" occurs and frees up $$ millions for other uses.
roadrunner >>
That is a very interesting point. You do mean stock market thud don't you? Those guys are smart and this might be evidence of what they are thinking.
Sunnywood
Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
There's a clarification that needs to be made. The aggregate supply is more or less fixed. Only the prices at which the coins are available changes. So it's more accurate to speak of increased supplies available at current levels. Since we don't know how the FUN coins are reserved, we can't assume that supplies at current levels are really spiking. But it's certainly possible.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>as the supply begins to exceed the demand at given market levels, prices will fall.
There's a clarification that needs to be made. The aggregate supply is more or less fixed. Only the prices at which the coins are available changes. So it's more accurate to speak of increased supplies available at current levels. Since we don't know how the FUN coins are reserved, we can't assume that supplies at current levels are really spiking. But it's certainly possible. >>
Has anyone factored in the presence of the internet which seems to have increased the number of coin collectors? I don't know whether this is a factor, but in past "bull" markets, when the coins only traded at higher levels between dealers and the end market was "investors" waiting to make that proverbial killing, you have a game of musical chairs with someone assured of losing big-time when the music stops. But if collectors are buying the coins for their long term collections, wouldn't there be a different market dynamic? -Particularly if there are larger numbers of collectors entering into the coin market for their personal collections. But watch out when the dynamics shift from Collector to Investor, that's the kiss of death.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
roadrunner
I think a stock market thud would be good for collectibles also. With interest rates as low as they are, and the astonishing margins being realized in the collectible markets, it would be a natural option for those big money people to redistribute their portfolios.
<< <i>The only dealers who don't seem to be affected by such "thuds" are the big auction houses: B&M, Heritage, ANR, Stacks >>
Exactly...but you forgot about adding the TPGs to your "non-thud" list.
jom
I completely and utterly disagree. The supply is NOT fixed. When coins are held privately, off the market, for extended periods of time, they are effectively removed from the supply. The supply drops. When more sellers are motivated to bring their coins back into the marketplace, the supply rises. And, when the services keep making coins in higher and higher graded slabs due to crackouts and resubmissions, that is another way of increasing the supply.
Right now, the supply is clearly rising dramatically. Sellers are flocking to auction houses, and collections that have been off the market for years, even decades, are coming back into play. Meanwhile resubmissions are at an all time high. A remarkable percentage of PCGS coins offered are in the newer slabs with eight-digit cert numbers. The supply is definitely going UP !!! And the demand, while also increasing for many reasons, will possibly become outstripped by the supply.
Sunnywood
Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
The thing that will turn the market is if demand is limited, not if it doesn't meet supply.
roadrunner
Most of the coins coming to auction are known coins. Very few are new to the numismatic community.
Any guess on how many 09-S VDB's there will be in the sale?? I'll take a guess at 34.
Jack
Bruce, If the Supply outstrips Demand, in simple Econ 101, prices should fall. If demand is HEALTHY, prices could fall if supply is HEALTHIER. (Of course I said COULD).
It seems everyone is shocked by the number of lots for sale coming up in a month. Everyone is ASSUMING because the AVAILABILITY of the SUPPLY is so large, that the demand can't keep up, and prices fall (or/and reserves not met). So far, even with all the auctions recently, including the Richmond Collection Part II (which really wasn't that big), the coins have been sucked up by buyers, indicating the demand is STILL HEALTHY.
The Eliasberg was a big sale. Garrett collection was big.
This Heritage F.U.N. sale is big also. It has been a sellers market, so they all come out of the woodwork. Will the buyers be there? So far, it seems they still are. Now you've got the Wall Street Journal commenting on the rise of the rare coin market. When the euphoria is at its peak, make sure you're not stuck without a chair to sit on. I think a lot have the same feeling, with all these lot offerings. But I don't expect a slowdown yet.
I disagree that only "the leftovers" are available. There are some ultra and monster rarities that haven't been around for some time coming up for auction. But is it not the collector, after seeing prices realized recently saying "heck, I'll sell my coin for THAT much!!".
From what I can tell, Barber, Morgan and Large Cent lovers have an incredible chance to get what they've been looking for. That happened in the past couple years for IHC, and Buffalo nickels. Just another nice type group available.
My last comment: Heritage may have less in inventory not because they don't want to be left holding the bag. Maybe because they have sold most their inventory, and have not been able to build it up. ???
LLOYD
It might just take the sellers a bit longer or not quite realize as much, but as long as demand is there the market is still healthy.