Thus my comment that supply outpacing demand is not necessarily a bad thing for the market provided that demand remains vigorous.
It's OK even if demand doesn't remain vigorous. The "corrections" - OK, crashes - discipline, educate and evolve the market and its participants. That's a healthy thing.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
What will be interesting to see is how many lots sell and how many don't meet the reserve. From what I've seen lately, despite some impressive prices, there have also been quite a few auction lots not selling due to overly optimistic reserves.
I know of thre different people who can spend $15,000,000 each.I doubt each of them will spend even $5,000,000 each because prices will be strong.In the last two years the coin market has out performed the stock market.
You would think that with 9000 lots, one of them might be a nice 1839-D quarter eagle in AU55 or AU58. I checked earlier this evening and there are none in that range. There is one listed as AU53, but I think it is the same one that was auctioned for big money at the last Heritage auction. They won't posted a picture as of yet.
IMO, it's irrelevant to the health of the market if supply outstrips demand - provided the demand is healthy. So what if many coins don't meet reserve or are sold for a bit less.
TDN, I find that ludicrous. Just wait until sellers realize they can't get out at levels that are acceptable to them. The rare coin market is not mysteriously impervious to basic economics. We have seen it all before, in coins and in other commodities. Perhaps no-one can predict the levels and the timing, but we can certainly predict that the laws of supply and demand will continue to apply.
I have predicted a downturn beginning next summer (of 2005). It will be a mild downturn lasting about a year or so and will help to ensure a healthy coin market through the remainder of the first decade of the 21st century.
Coin prices and boom cycles do not always go straight up as seen in the past. A mild slowdown is imminent and needed.
The increase in supply is quite normal and will continue to increase until buyers are "sated" (SIC?} which will happen by next summer. Buyers will then battle sellers as the level supply and demand remains even for a while (there was a shortage of supply for a while in the past year).
Until then, dealers will seize the opportunity at FUN to restock their depleted inventories. This Heritage Auction will be important for dealers to stock up. My opinion only.
One interesting item to note. Ellesmere Numismatics for the first time in over ten years, had NOT ONE business strike seated liberty dime, quarter, half or dollar for sale in their latest catalogue!!!! I asked Jim Fehr about that. He didn't even realize that!!! He was surprised that he only had proof strike sl coinage in his inventory!!
“Struck in 1787, the gold "doubloons" by Ephraim Brasher are among the rarest and most desirable of all United States coins - in fact, a long-standing record is the $725,000 realized by an example in 1979 (at the time, the highest price ever achieved at public auction by a United States coin).”
"Garrett, Part IV" March 25-26, 1981, Lot 2340, "VF" at $625,000 - reportedly sold in late 1994 for $900,000.”
The biggest mistake I see made: Heritage really screwed up by announcing the Doubloons with less than 30 days to go. Even rich people need to think about it and move money around. One person I spoke to who I know can and may very well play on the Brashsers said" they caught me off guard".
Laura, Do you want to make an estimate of a final hammer price? Anyone one else want to venture a guess?
If my theory is correct this may be the sale that separates the market. What I expect is that all the major rarities will reach new historical tops, even adjusted for inflation, and the mid to lower grade rarities that have been drug up to new market highs will go unsold, I believe many regular collectors have been priced out of the market.
I believe excluding the super rich, and the billionaires, that most of the collecting community now falls into the stag-flation category where they have spent way beyond their means the last three years, and are forced to take a break. I believe that not only regular working class collectors, but folks with net worth’s under two million dollars have bought all the coins they can mentally afford. I think their credit cards are charged up and much of their savings that they were willing to part with has already gone into the hobby.
If this is the case we should see a separation of the market where the top end continues upward and the middle grades, and moderns go unsold.
Here is a trivia question. Heritage has broken just about every auction record, but there is one big, obvious record, they have yet to break. Anybody know what it is ???
No missles coming, I promise!! I believe the major auctions are NOT for the regular collector. That's where E-Bay, coin shows and "bullet" sales come into play.
There is still plenty of money to go around to be placed into different avenues. The coin market has very few players. So far.
Here is a trivia question. Heritage has broken just about every auction record, but there is one big, obvious record, they have yet to break. Anybody know what it is ???
Answer; They have never sold a million dollar coin. That could, and probably will, change at Fun.
Proof, you mean they have never sold a million dollar coin AT AUCTION, correct? They have sold PLENTY over a million dollars each in private sales. FYI. I'll name some of them if you ask.
Oreville, I've noticed the same thing with Ellesmere for quite a number of years. I just assumed they stopped stocking seated or type material in general because it has been slower moving compared to 20th century registry, moderns, etc. Ellesmere does a big Morgan business as well as 20th century. I think they just tend to buy what moves. You can see the same trend in say Legend's inventory. Not quite as much 19th silver type as they had say 1-2 years ago. You go where the flow is: top popper morgans, DMPL's, Indians, Lincs, Buffs, gold (proof and unc), etc.
Since post 1820 type as a rule has not participated in this market compared to so many other areas, do you expect a correction in that area or will it be a safe-haven? I don't think silver type has moved more than say 30% in the past 3 years. Better dates and registry sets are a different matter. Some of the stuff is actually cheaper, especially some of the lower-end NGC stuff. Other areas that have not really participated: scarce and semi-key date Morgans in 63 to 66, nickel type, large copper type, non-monster toned commems. I can't see how these areas can "correct" when other areas like key dates and bust dollars have doubled and tripled. It does imply that the collector is not really into type. It has been a dealer/investor type market since the late 1970's. And it may need speculative money to move it significantly.
The coin market has tended to avoid corrections in the past few major market moves of the last 30 years. It either crashes, stays about the same, or slowly moves up. The 1987-1990 market "corrected" somewhat in both 1988 and 1989. While it peaked in 1989, a number of areas held strong or even surged one last time to March 1990. It would be interesting to see corrections in the course of the current "stronger" market.
Roadrunner: I was speaking in general terms and agree with you that the series such as the post 1820 type that advanced very little in price in the last three years may indeed not go down at all during the next correction. I try to avoid making specific comments about specific series being that my thinking is controversial to begin with.
Along with every correction, periods of flat prices, booms, etc. are what we call rolling pockets of strengths and weaknesses. To specifically predict them is trickier indeed.
I believe Goldsaint is on to something. While many dealers are absorbed by the flood of megabucks collectors driving the top rarities to new highs, at FUN will should the beginning of a separation of the middle market coins. David Lawrence in the Rosen N. A. suggests a flattening of his market segment, by definition the mid-segment. And at Baltimore many dealers reported very slow retail sales, dispite new price records for the top material at auction. The focus and excitement by many dealers seems to ignor there is less interest by "regular collectors" either due to prior overspending, debt, and maybe being priced out in a number of cases. Hopefully dealers awash in recent profits don't borrow on spec. hoping to cater to this market, or later this year there may be a squeeze, and some serious dumping.
I don't think the overriding factor in this market is necessarily rarity - rather it is eye appeal. The internet has raised the bar - not only does a coin need to be technically nice, it has to be photogenic as well.
Now, if a coin has both technical quality and eye appeal? To the moon!
Bear: how do you get your furry paws around the microscope to check out those 100% FH's?
You know, in light of the mega-bucks being thrown around in this thread, what bad economy was John Kerry talking about in the last election? I sure don't see any bad economy around here!
Quick question - I've seen several references to three Brasher "Doubloons" in the sale, but online, I have only seen one Lima-Style piece and two Brazilian pieces that he regulated (a $2 and an $8, judging by the denominations). Am I missing something?
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
TDN is dead-on. Lately it's all about eye appeal. I'd like to think I've been buying that way for years, but truth be told I've been a lot more focused on it the last 2-3 years. If there is a coin out there with 50 or 100 examples, finding out really isn't that hard. Finding one that looks nice, on the other hand, is hard as heck, and those are the coins that everyone wants lately and are paying moon money for.
I disagree with TDN's idea that rarity, at least in the series I collect, is not the overriding factor affecting this market--FOR MID-RANGE collectors. Eye appeal is important but lets look at two bellweather Morgans that usually have zero eye appeal. I bought a 1894-P at Baltimore ANA PCGS-63 for $2,700, and I bought a VG-8 1893-S for $1,300. Neither very attractive (but original) and today a collector would have to pay about $5,500-$6,000 for the former, and $2,300 to $2750 for the latter. For the top 30 Morgan's this same trend is going on, so that someone tryng to complete a collection of 97 Morgans may have to pay more than double to complete the set, take a longer time period (my philosophy), or is tapped out already with "sticker shock". Yes "eye appeal" and being photogenic is newly important in coin auctions- and to the SOPHISTICATED collector just as important OR MORE SO , than technical grade. But the sad fact is the market as a whole is overpopulated with so-so coins, and many collectors who still are mislead by plastic numbers!! Now if I can just get Heritage to brighten up that picture of my toned CC Morgan at FUN! (Fat chance!)
I've been cruising the preview to the sale. Other than the consignment that MrEureka linked [old holder gold and Brasher Doubloons], it seems as if the majority of the lots are very low grade. Is the quality split out into a Platinum Night?
Heritage told me that all the "Platinum Night" coins are mixed up with all the other lots available for all to see already. There will be no surprises of "additional" lots coming for the Platinum Night sale. What you see now, is everything.
Well I guess I'll find out if the "eye appeal" theory of TDN or my own preference of general rarity leading price advances is right. In the Morgan Series the are some truly rare pieces (ie: pop 1-5 in DMPL) in an "unrare" series, that really have the eye appeal of dog poop!!! I may be wrong and the crazy money will indeed gravitate to the few platinum night coins that combine rarity AND eye appeal. But after what some of the stuff in the DLRC Richmond Collection brought, I'm frankly confused what is going on with dollars of all dates.
Comments
It's OK even if demand doesn't remain vigorous. The "corrections" - OK, crashes - discipline, educate and evolve the market and its participants. That's a healthy thing.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I know of thre different people who can spend $15,000,000 each.I doubt each of them will spend even $5,000,000 each because prices will be strong.In the last two years the coin market has out performed the stock market.
Stewart
Funny, I remember when that used to be real money. I guess I really am an old timer.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I know of thre different people who can spend $15,000,000 each
Funny, I remember when that used to be real money. I guess I really am an old timer. >>
Overland Trail Collection Showcase
Dahlonega Type Set-2008 PCGS Best Exhibited Set
TDN, I find that ludicrous. Just wait until sellers realize they can't get out at levels that are acceptable to them. The rare coin market is not mysteriously impervious to basic economics. We have seen it all before, in coins and in other commodities. Perhaps no-one can predict the levels and the timing, but we can certainly predict that the laws of supply and demand will continue to apply.
Best,
Sunnywood
Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
Coin prices and boom cycles do not always go straight up as seen in the past. A mild slowdown is imminent and needed.
The increase in supply is quite normal and will continue to increase until buyers are "sated" (SIC?} which will happen by next summer. Buyers will then battle sellers as the level supply and demand remains even for a while (there was a shortage of supply for a while in the past year).
Until then, dealers will seize the opportunity at FUN to restock their depleted inventories. This Heritage Auction will be important for dealers to stock up. My opinion only.
One interesting item to note. Ellesmere Numismatics for the first time in over ten years, had NOT ONE business strike seated liberty dime, quarter, half or dollar for sale in their latest catalogue!!!! I asked Jim Fehr about that. He didn't even realize that!!! He was surprised that he only had proof strike sl coinage in his inventory!!
"Garrett, Part IV" March 25-26, 1981, Lot 2340, "VF" at $625,000 - reportedly sold in late 1994 for $900,000.”
The biggest mistake I see made: Heritage really screwed up by announcing the Doubloons with less than 30 days to go. Even rich people need to think about it and move money around. One person I spoke to who I know can and may very well play on the Brashsers said" they caught me off guard".
Laura, Do you want to make an estimate of a final hammer price?
Anyone one else want to venture a guess?
If my theory is correct this may be the sale that separates the market. What I expect is that all the major rarities will reach new historical tops, even adjusted for inflation, and the mid to lower grade rarities that have been drug up to new market highs will go unsold, I believe many regular collectors have been priced out of the market.
I believe excluding the super rich, and the billionaires, that most of the collecting community now falls into the stag-flation category where they have spent way beyond their means the last three years, and are forced to take a break. I believe that not only regular working class collectors, but folks with net worth’s under two million dollars have bought all the coins they can mentally afford. I think their credit cards are charged up and much of their savings that they were willing to part with has already gone into the hobby.
If this is the case we should see a separation of the market where the top end continues upward and the middle grades, and moderns go unsold.
No missles coming, I promise!! I believe the major auctions are NOT for the regular collector. That's where E-Bay, coin shows and "bullet" sales come into play.
There is still plenty of money to go around to be placed into different avenues. The coin market has very few players. So far.
------Lloyd
Answer; They have never sold a million dollar coin. That could, and probably will, change at Fun.
____Lloyd
Yes, I was only referring to Heritage auctions.
Since post 1820 type as a rule has not participated in this market compared to so many other areas, do you expect a correction in that area or will it be a safe-haven? I don't think silver type has moved more than say 30% in the past 3 years. Better dates and registry sets are a different matter. Some of the stuff is actually cheaper, especially some of the lower-end NGC stuff. Other areas that have not really participated: scarce and semi-key date Morgans in 63 to 66, nickel type, large copper type, non-monster toned commems.
I can't see how these areas can "correct" when other areas like key dates and bust dollars have doubled and tripled. It does imply that the collector is not really into type. It has been a dealer/investor type market since the late 1970's. And it may need speculative money to move it significantly.
The coin market has tended to avoid corrections in the past few major market moves of the last 30 years. It either crashes, stays about the same, or slowly moves up. The 1987-1990 market "corrected" somewhat in both 1988 and 1989. While it peaked in 1989, a number of areas held strong or even surged one last time to March 1990. It would be interesting to see corrections in the course of the current "stronger" market.
roadrunner
Along with every correction, periods of flat prices, booms, etc. are what we call rolling pockets of strengths and weaknesses. To specifically predict them is trickier indeed.
can be pushed and then we will see a lot of collectors get hurt. These super rarities
really dont mean much to the other 95% of us collectors. Much of the bread and butter
is in the 100 to 3000 dollar range. The super rare coins will go to astronomical highs and
break, much the same as trophy real estate did for the Japanese some years ago. Its going to be getting
harder to refi homes with rising interest rates, credit cards are pretty loaded up and we are starting to see
some heavy duty collectors delaying payments longer and longer on huge purchases.
I still think that Barber coinage , especially quarters and half dollars are at a reasonable price. If one purchases
them, they must be absolute PQ for the grade. The ideal grades will be MS and PR 66 to 67.( Deep cameos if possible)
Seated Liberty quarters and half dollars will be right behind the Barbers in the same grades. Standing Liberty Quarters
are still terribly underpriced for superb MS-66FH specimens. I dont mean the just made it FH, I mean the all there absolute
full strike beauties. Required for full price will be the origonal toned, full skin specimens and not the blast white dipped out examples.
Lastly Classical Commems with lovely natural toning in the MS-66 and MS-67 range for the less expensive types , around 1000 dollars
are still underpriced. As always , only those coins with really lovely appearence and appeal will score maximum gains.
I can't guarantee this is what will happen and certainly, I am no 15 million dollar whale. However , I place fairly substantial sums
of money into my collection and feel I am in tune with the direction the market will take in the not too distant future.
Quality coins will return the maximum gains and will provide the maximum protection in a coin market downturn. As always, the key is
not quantity it is QUALITY. Historivcally, smaller denominations such as half dimes, dimes (L.S and Barber) although incredibly rare
in top condition have had a more limited following. While this may change, as well it should, I do not expect this to happen on a
broad scale in the reasonable future.( Demand - Condition- Origonality and Jaw Dropping Appeal )will be the key requirements for the
future.
For those who collect coins in less then mint state, the same criteria for quality applies. What ever the grade you can afford,
get the very best quality for the grade you can. That means good strike, pleasing surface , color and freedom from distracting marks.
Camelot
Marc
Now, if a coin has both technical quality and eye appeal? To the moon!
Bear: how do you get your furry paws around the microscope to check out those 100% FH's?
It stands out like a AH 1964 Kennedy Half.
If a bear can gets its paws around a jelly donut, it can get its
paws around a microscope. Of course, The scope does tend to
get rather sticky.
Camelot
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
Where's the Beef?
Heritage told me that all the "Platinum Night" coins are mixed up with all the other lots available for all to see already. There will be no surprises of "additional" lots coming for the Platinum Night sale. What you see now, is everything.
______Lloyd