Silver TANKING
longtimecollector
Posts: 2,368 ✭
DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY !!!!!!!!!!!!
Cam-Slam 2-6-04
3 "DAMMIT BOYS"
4 "YOU SUCKS"
Numerous POTD (But NONE officially recognized)
Seated Halves are my specialty !
Seated Half set by date/mm COMPLETE !
Seated Half set by WB# - 289 down / 31 to go !!!!!
(1) "Smoebody smack him" from CornCobWipe !
IN MEMORY OF THE CUOF
3 "DAMMIT BOYS"
4 "YOU SUCKS"
Numerous POTD (But NONE officially recognized)
Seated Halves are my specialty !
Seated Half set by date/mm COMPLETE !
Seated Half set by WB# - 289 down / 31 to go !!!!!
(1) "Smoebody smack him" from CornCobWipe !
IN MEMORY OF THE CUOF
0
Comments
Gold is down $15.xx
The thought that jumped into my mind is that Snow is leaving and the new Treasury Secretary may be less of a weak dollar proponent. Dollar up, gold down. I also thought it an bad sign that the dollar was down and so was gold yesterday.
Shoulda woulda coulda!
Gold is overbought. Coupled with interest rate decision this month. Corrections are good. A welldefined base will be formed. Weak hearts will dump it and run.
Some times foreign banks sell create panic and then buy the gold at a cheaper price for Central Banks.
Cameron Kiefer
I called this market correction a few days ago. Maybe I should publish my own precious metals report.
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
As for me I still like silver!
Tbig
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Jade what will happen next?
According to our vast market research and technical analysis, we have determined that the spot price of both gold and silver will fluctuate in the coming months. These changes will occur on an almost daily basis and will be influenced by numerous factors.
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
This is fine by me, it means I can buy more 100 ounce bars at a better price. It will also spike upwards towards the end of January and climb again through next year. On paper, I just lost a ton of money, but I'm smiling because I can aquire more at a more affordable price.
This is just the ususal cycle, nothing to worry about nor is it any reason for the naysayers to gloat about.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Jade what will happen next?
According to our vast market research and technical analysis, we have determined that the spot price of both gold and silver will fluctuate in the coming months. These changes will occur on an almost daily basis and will be influenced by numerous factors. >>
Dennis,
You worked on wall street didnt you? LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY !!!!!!!!!!!! >>
love the curve
Dr J
My omnicoin collection (or how my coin photography has progressed)
<< <i>
<< <i>DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY !!!!!!!!!!!! >>
love the curve
Dr J >>
That's not a curve, thats a freaking cliff dive!
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Jade what will happen next?
According to our vast market research and technical analysis, we have determined that the spot price of both gold and silver will fluctuate in the coming months. These changes will occur on an almost daily basis and will be influenced by numerous factors. >>
Do you forecast weather also?
<< <i>
<< <i>Jade what will happen next?
According to our vast market research and technical analysis, we have determined that the spot price of both gold and silver will fluctuate in the coming months. These changes will occur on an almost daily basis and will be influenced by numerous factors. >>
Dennis,
You worked on wall street didnt you? LOL >>
Or he could be a politician. He really said nothing, but gives the appearance of substance.
Do you forecast weather also?
Yes. The weather could be cloudy today with the possibility of some sun shining through. Temperatures will be consistent with this time of year. Rain or snow is also possible, depending on where you live.
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
Joe
J&J Coins
website
Wild Ebay Toners for sale
The big O
<< <i>I turned down 1500 ounces yesterday at 25c below spot >>
Was Martha Stewart selling it?
Cameron Kiefer
Jade is a GENIUS!
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Doesn't look remarkable yet. Perhaps somebody is backing up the price, so they can get in. JP Morgan did that a couple years ago.
<< <i>Doesn't anyone have money in the stock market here? This is called a correction and it was over due. Nothing ever goes way up without one, I expect to see some more through Jan. and then a big push for a high testing $500+ for gold. Buy on the dips is what I'm doing. >>
Same here, been doing it for years now. My record smashes any stock investments over the last 24 months. There will be a dramatic rise in late January or early Feb at the latest. Just look at the charts over the last 15 years and you could see this one coming. Same way I know it will strongly rise again in late January.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Neat little panic setting in Wall Street amongst the PM shares. I just might have to make some folks feel better by buying their shares....
I wouldn't waste precious brainpower on predicting the price next year, but I will accept and appreciate donations to my account during this panic.
Decided to let the panic thicken. Maybe the nightly news will help tomorrow carryover.
<< <i>figures... anytime I list bullion coins on e-bay the prices plummit before the auction is over.
Well at least now we know who is responsible for the drop in metal prices!!
DR. MARC FABER===
Wednesday, December 08 - 2004 at 10:51
Sell US stocks and buy the dollar
Regular readers of this column know that my view remains that the US economy is in deep trouble and that the US dollar is a doomed currency, which will over time lose all its value.
However, even within a downtrend there can be countertrend rallies the same way there can be significant corrections within an uptrend. Right now the situation we find in financial markets is as follows. The US stock market and other stock markets around the world have risen from their late October lows in typical post election rallies.
However, it is quite common that these post election rallies fade out relatively soon, as was the case when Richard Nixon was elected in November 1972. This was followed by further strength but the stock market made its final high in January 1973 – slightly higher than in December 1972 - before entering a devastating two years' bear market.
Mid-December correction
Since, at present, the US and also other stock markets around the world have become significantly overbought amidst record bullish investors' sentiment it is very likely that either a top is already in place or about to occur within days, which should be followed by a correction of around 5% at the very least and lasting into mid December.
From a mid December low we should then get a year end rally into January, whereby I am expecting that numerous technical indicators will fail to better their current high readings. This should then lead to a more pronounced downturn into February.
It is, however, important to remember that whereas the US stock market is up by around 40% from its October 2002 low, in Euro terms it has hardly risen because the dollar has almost declined by 40% against the Euro since 2002. So if Mr Greenspan decides to carry on with his irresponsible monetary policies it is possible that in dollar terms the stock market will continue to rally but it would likely fail to move up much in Euro terms since more of the same Greenspan monetary policies, as he implemented in the past, would lead to an even weaker dollar.
As a side I may mention that the US economy is far from the 'New Economy' which was relentlessly broadcasted by the high tech apostles who led their investors into incurring devastating losses following the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble. In my opinion, the US economy increasingly resembles a 'Banana Republic' economy a la Latin America in the 1980s (the present US administration increasingly exhibits some similarities to dictatorial Banana Republic leaders as well).
At that time Latin American countries tried to cushion the end of the flow of petrodollars after 1980 by increasing their budget deficits and by printing relentlessly money. This then led to rising trade and current account deficits, hyperinflation and a collapse in their currencies as well as their economies.
The result was that in local currencies the stock markets rose throughout the 1980s, but that in dollars – then a strong currency - they lost 80% or more of their value. Needless to mention that Latin American local bond markets were in the 1980s' hyperinflation period a total wipe out! Therefore, if the US economy moves in character closer to Latin American economies, US bonds should now be sold.
Dollar over-sold
Above I mentioned that the US stock market is now - in the near term at least – in significant over-bought territory. The opposite seems to be the case for the US dollar, which has now reached an extremely over-sold position. I recently attended several investors' conferences and everywhere and from everyone I only hear US dollar bashing and that the US dollar will decline further.
As a contrarian this makes me skeptical since usually universal bearishness leads to rallies while universal optimism leads to disappointments. Moreover, while I certainly agree that in the long run the dollar is going to be totally worthless in terms of its purchasing power, and that a cup of coffee will eventually cost US$100 or even more, I am not so sure that the dollar is now over-valued against the Euro.
Quite on the contrary, from a recent trip to Europe it is my impression that at the current exchange rate the dollar is - purely on its purchasing power compared to the Euro - somewhat undervalued. As a result, I think that the most likely financial developments in the next few weeks will be a setback in US equities and a rebound in US dollars.
In particular, I should mention that numerous large currency and commodity funds have huge leveraged dollar bear positions outstanding, which could rapidly be unwind once the dollar begins to rally. I suppose that if the US stock market could decline within a long term uptrend by 21% in one day - this happened on October 19th 1987 - the US dollar could easily rally by 5% to 10% within a short period of time.
There is one more point to consider. Whereas the dollar may continue to depreciate in value it may not depreciate much further against the Euro but against other assets such as precious metals and the Asian currencies.
In this respect it is also important to realize that whereas the gold price has moved up against the US dollar, it has been steady against the euro since 2002. In other words gold has moved up largely on the back of US dollar weakness but is certainly not expensive in euros, or compared to the S&P 500 and to oil.
When gold is expensive compared to oil it takes more than 20 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold. This was the case in 1984, 1994 and 1998 (one could also say that when it takes more than 20 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold, oil is very inexpensive). Conversely, when gold is cheap compared to oil – as is now the case - it only takes about 10 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold.
Not owning gold a risk
Therefore, I would feel more comfortable to own gold right now than to pile into, in my opinion over-valued Euros. Still, even gold is now somewhat over-bought and if we are right about a US dollar rebound, then gold could easily correct to the downside over the short term. However, as I have mentioned before, there is a risk of not owning any gold and silver at all, since we do not know how much more irresponsible US monetary policies will become in future in an attempt to bail out a basically bankrupt system.
Also, rather than buying Euros at this point, I would buy Asian currencies for the following reason. While the Euro has appreciated significantly over the last two years against the US dollar, the Asian currencies have by and large not moved much since the Chinese RMB is pegged against the US dollar and the other Asian countries do not wish to have their currencies appreciate against the RMB for fear to lose their competitive position in export markets.
But if the Euro should rise against the US dollar much further, Asian monetary authorities and especially the Chinese will come under increasing pressure not just from the US to revalue but also from the Europeans since the Euro would become significantly over-valued against the Asian currencies.
As a result of the Euro strength Chinese exports to Europe are already soaring and there is no doubt that in time the Europeans are going to take the Asian to task for having forced the Euro up and for eroding their already weak economies even further. As a result, I think that to buy some Asian currencies (but not the Hong Kong dollar) does make sense.
Personally, I like – as mentioned on previous occasions - the Singapore dollar, but now I would also buy the Malaysian Ringgit, since like the RMB it is also pegged to the US dollar. Compared to the Euro, the Singapore dollar is a tremendous bargain and from the charts we can see that a breakdown of the US dollar against the Singapore dollar is a distinct possibility.
Bearish on US bonds
Lastly, we should mention that US bonds are unlikely to provide satisfactory returns in the years ahead. Without or with less support by Asian central banks, US bond prices are likely to decline and if the US dollar remains structurally weak inflation is likely to accelerate. Therefore, we feel the time has come to liquidate US bonds.
In sum, and for the short term only, I would now get out of equities and buy the US dollar. If for diversification purpose or in order to join the US dollar selling panic another currency than the dollar is absolutely necessary, then I would buy gold, silver and the Singapore dollar for the reasons outlined above.
For the longer term, we shall need to assess the extent of the US stock market correction, as we may already be at or very close to a major top. The same may apply to the over-bought Euro compared to the US dollar. As for US bonds, the likelihood of US interest rates moving up is high and, therefore, the reward of holding dollar bonds does not appear favorable compared to the risk.