<< <i>I wish I'd have been able to pay a premium for conditionally rare Walkers while they were contemporary. JMO >>
Excellent point. It was generally just about impossible to find the highest grade coins in any series other than the well studied and rare older coins even as recently as the late 1970's. It took a huge amount of work, money, and time to chase down "common" coins like 1934-S walkers in very high grade. The coins were not even readily available to check for nice examples and then there was the problems that they were rarely en- countered in very high grade. One couldn't simply get on the net and check eBay and the auction houses because the coins were generally only graded unc or choice.
One could expend a lot of effort quite recently looking for many coins in very high grade and not find any for sale. Even now that they are being graded, there are many which are rarely offered.
"some people like to collect this type of coin and that is certainly their perogative."
Indeed it is but I don't understand all the fascination with "pops." As a measure of rarity/scarcity these numbers are not reliable, have never been reliable and never will be reliable.
In my opinion, it is much better to spend one's serious money on coins that have been, still are and will in the future be recognized by the numismatic community as the truly rare and scarce, coins that have withstood the test of time.
The ridiculous prices that are being asked and paid for some of these "top pop" modern so-called rarities are rooted in the "unreliable." Why do I say ridiculous? Well, buy an Ike dollar for $1000. Take it to your friendly local neighborhood coin dealer and find out for yourself that the dealer will offer a pittance, if anything, of your purchase amount for that nice, but expensive to you, Ike dollar.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
Indeed it is but I don't understand all the fascination with "pops." As a measure of rarity/scarcity these numbers are not reliable, have never been reliable and never will be reliable.
In my opinion, it is much better to spend one's serious money on coins that have been, still are and will in the future be recognized by the numismatic community as the truly rare and scarce, coins that have withstood the test of time.
The ridiculous prices that are being asked and paid for some of these "top pop" modern so-called rarities are rooted in the "unreliable." Why do I say ridiculous? Well, buy an Ike dollar for $1000. Take it to your friendly local neighborhood coin dealer and find out for yourself that the dealer will offer a pittance, if anything, of your purchase amount for that nice, but expensive to you, Ike dollar. >>
Of course if everyone waits until the coins have "withstood the test of time" then the coins will be gone and will never have been studied, collected, or appreciated. It is this "waiting" which has allowed the coins to have gotten old without ever having been saved or set aside. It is the "waiting" that has allowed rare coins to sell for nominal amounts. It is the fact that most of the hobby is still waiting that one can go down to the local dealer and buy a valuable rare coin for pennies on the dollar of its current value. It is the waiting which makes it so the dealer has no customer for the coin when you attempt to sell it back so he offers only 40% to 60% of its real value.
If you want to spend serious money on coins then buy what you like or invest in what you think is likely to increase. Yes, most people are going to opt for the older "tried and true" coins. But make no mistake about it; if you like the less well known routes and find- ing your own way then moderns are serious coins and you can spend serious money on them.
"It is the "waiting" that has allowed rare coins to sell for nominal amounts. It is the fact that most of the hobby is still waiting that one can go down to the local dealer and buy a valuable rare coin for pennies on the dollar of its current value."
The "current value" of super high grade moderns is based on the unreliable "pops" so how can current value of such be a reliable indicator of its true scarcity/rarity?
"It is the waiting which makes it so the dealer has no customer for the coin when you attempt to sell it back so he offers only 40% to 60% of its real value."
40 to 60%? 20% or less, if any offer at all, is more the reality.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
The price of ANY numismatic item can fall very quickly if a new hoard comes on the market. Among the classic coins, the 1903-O silver dollar is a prime example. In the early 1960s the price of that one fell from $1,500 to $15 in BU condition when a hoard of them was found in the treasury vaults. Ditto for the 1857-S double eagle and the Type I double eagle as a type coin after the SS Central America coins came on the market.
The trouble with some modern coin issues is that there are hoards of coins all over the place. Let's say you pay an outrageous price for the “finest known” example of a state quarter. OK great, but given the fact that the mintage ranges from the 100s of millions to over a billion pieces, who’s to say what were crop up in the future? This goes double if the high price you paid gets lots of publicity. More high grade coins are bound to come out of the woodwork.
Owning the “finest known” example of an early 19th century die variety can be controversial because different graders can have different opinions. With modern coins the opinions can be subject to more controversy because the difference between MS-68 and MS-69 can be virtually imperceptible.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
The "current value" of super high grade moderns is based on the unreliable "pops" so how can current value of such be a reliable indicator of its true scarcity/rarity?
The pops aren't a reliable indicator. You're right. They're useful in determining what the submitted population graded, but still don't mean much when one considers the population of ungraded coins. It does a good job of pointing out what average for the date/mm is.
"It is the waiting which makes it so the dealer has no customer for the coin when you attempt to sell it back so he offers only 40% to 60% of its real value."
Dealers are not the market makers for these coins. A few dealers do, but not many yet. I have sold half dozen dealers nice moderns that were pretty pricey for 80-90% of retail, so there is a market, but it's still very thin and young. The market exists among enthusiasts and specialty dealers. That will eventually change, but investors would do well to remember they're buying outside the mainstream. Most modern collectors don't care too much about that, as the primary motivation for many of them is to build a very high quality set while the coins are abundant. If you don't know what's really difficult in your series, you run the risk of overpaying for common. That's a fair concern. It's not unique to moderns.
40 to 60%? 20% or less, if any offer at all, is more the reality.
My experience is different than that. I expect your observation is accurate for common coins, but for the truly difficult stuff, that's not the reality I've observed.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
You said something that JDimmick and I talked about the other day at length. I think the difference in 68 and 69 is probably the easiest to see for a novice. If you give a collector with any experience a 68-69 coin and ask him whether it's perfect, he'll tell you. It may take 20 minutes, but if there's a flaw, they'll find it. They have much more trouble telling the difference in 65-66. JMO
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
The "current value" of super high grade moderns is based on the unreliable "pops" so how can current value of such be a reliable indicator of its true scarcity/rarity? >>
No. Absolutely not. The value of all coins is based on supply and demand. This has always been true. When the pops increase on the moderns, the price will still be based on supply and demand. Current value is only an indication of supply and demand. The "supply" side of this equation includes raw coins but only to the degree that they are equivalent to supplying the demand. ie- where the demand is pri- marily for registry sets the supply will more closely reflect the pops.
<< <i>
40 to 60%? 20% or less, if any offer at all, is more the reality. >>
This is probably true in most cases since the corner dealer is also still waiting and prudently doesn't want to stick his neck out buying a coin which he's not familiar with and for which he probably has no customer. But it is easy enough to get 40 to 60% if you ship it off and you will do better if you wait for a good offer. Certainly, price can be more ephemeral in a thin market.
<< <i>The price of ANY numismatic item can fall very quickly if a new hoard comes on the market. Among the classic coins, the 1903-O silver dollar is a prime example. In the early 1960s the price of that one fell from $1,500 to $15 in BU condition when a hoard of them was found in the treasury vaults. Ditto for the 1857-S double eagle and the Type I double eagle as a type coin after the SS Central America coins came on the market.
The trouble with some modern coin issues is that there are hoards of coins all over the place. Let's say you pay an outrageous price for the “finest known” example of a state quarter. OK great, but given the fact that the mintage ranges from the 100s of millions to over a billion pieces, who’s to say what were crop up in the future? This goes double if the high price you paid gets lots of publicity. More high grade coins are bound to come out of the woodwork. >>
I've been extremely close to these coins for a very long time. I've done a huge amount of work looking for rarities and gems and have paid close attention since a market for them began evolving in 1979. It seems virtually impossible to me that there are any systematic hordes for most of these coins. Where these were released to circulation, they would be dispersed before you could get to them. Where they were released in mint sets they were far too widely disseminated to acquire a horde. There is scant evidence that people saved even the typicl examples. There are no rolls of '69 or '93-D quarters so why would someone go to extreme effort to locate gems and put hem aside. Almost no one believed any of these coins could ever be collectible much less valuable.
Perhaps a couple of stories to illustrate the point; The finest '72-D quarters were probably in the mint sets shipped to the St Louis, MO area. When one went to look at the sets here though there was no line looking for mint sets or quarters. Several dealers told me that no one ever mentioned looking for such coins. Even if there were someone in St Louis attempting to "corner the market" on these, he'd have his work cut out for him. Only a very small percent- age of the '72-D's are top notch even in St Louis and only a small percentage of the sets are on the market at any given time.
I went to Sandusky, Ohio in 1983 to find an '82-NMM dime. I showed up at the coin shop early in the day of the second week after they were reported so I could be first in line. I was the line. In fact the proprieter told me I was the only one who had shown up at all!!!
Are there hordes. Maybe, maybe not, but definitely not in the way that people think of hordes. There have been a small but growing number of collectors for these over the years. If a Kennedy collector tripped over a gem bag of nickels while looking for something, he'd likely sort out the gems to trade with other collectors for Kennedies. There are also a handfull of people who have believed in these coins and their potential for many years. I would assume that they would tend to accumulate them. There are a couple of entities which almost certainly have hordes of these but I know when they started and have some idea what they have. These hordes are probably far smaller than most would imagine and are hardly comprehensive. The logistics and effort to acquire large numbers of most of these coins are simply staggeringly formidable. The coins made in the last couple generations are in circulation. As far as collector versions- - what you see is what you get.
Comments
<< <i>I wish I'd have been able to pay a premium for conditionally rare Walkers while they were contemporary. JMO >>
Excellent point. It was generally just about impossible to find the highest grade coins
in any series other than the well studied and rare older coins even as recently as the
late 1970's. It took a huge amount of work, money, and time to chase down "common"
coins like 1934-S walkers in very high grade. The coins were not even readily available
to check for nice examples and then there was the problems that they were rarely en-
countered in very high grade. One couldn't simply get on the net and check eBay and
the auction houses because the coins were generally only graded unc or choice.
One could expend a lot of effort quite recently looking for many coins in very high grade
and not find any for sale. Even now that they are being graded, there are many which
are rarely offered.
Indeed it is but I don't understand all the fascination with "pops." As a measure of rarity/scarcity these numbers are not reliable, have never been reliable and never will be reliable.
In my opinion, it is much better to spend one's serious money on coins that have been, still are and will in the future be recognized by the numismatic community as the truly rare and scarce, coins that have withstood the test of time.
The ridiculous prices that are being asked and paid for some of these "top pop" modern so-called rarities are rooted in the "unreliable." Why do I say ridiculous? Well, buy an Ike dollar for $1000. Take it to your friendly local neighborhood coin dealer and find out for yourself that the dealer will offer a pittance, if anything, of your purchase amount for that nice, but expensive to you, Ike dollar.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
<< <i>
Indeed it is but I don't understand all the fascination with "pops." As a measure of rarity/scarcity these numbers are not reliable, have never been reliable and never will be reliable.
In my opinion, it is much better to spend one's serious money on coins that have been, still are and will in the future be recognized by the numismatic community as the truly rare and scarce, coins that have withstood the test of time.
The ridiculous prices that are being asked and paid for some of these "top pop" modern so-called rarities are rooted in the "unreliable." Why do I say ridiculous? Well, buy an Ike dollar for $1000. Take it to your friendly local neighborhood coin dealer and find out for yourself that the dealer will offer a pittance, if anything, of your purchase amount for that nice, but expensive to you, Ike dollar. >>
Of course if everyone waits until the coins have "withstood the test of time" then the
coins will be gone and will never have been studied, collected, or appreciated. It is this
"waiting" which has allowed the coins to have gotten old without ever having been
saved or set aside. It is the "waiting" that has allowed rare coins to sell for nominal
amounts. It is the fact that most of the hobby is still waiting that one can go down to
the local dealer and buy a valuable rare coin for pennies on the dollar of its current value.
It is the waiting which makes it so the dealer has no customer for the coin when you
attempt to sell it back so he offers only 40% to 60% of its real value.
If you want to spend serious money on coins then buy what you like or invest in what
you think is likely to increase. Yes, most people are going to opt for the older "tried and
true" coins. But make no mistake about it; if you like the less well known routes and find-
ing your own way then moderns are serious coins and you can spend serious money on
them.
The "current value" of super high grade moderns is based on the unreliable "pops" so how can current value of such be a reliable indicator of its true scarcity/rarity?
"It is the waiting which makes it so the dealer has no customer for the coin when you attempt to sell it back so he offers only 40% to 60% of its real value."
40 to 60%? 20% or less, if any offer at all, is more the reality.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
The trouble with some modern coin issues is that there are hoards of coins all over the place. Let's say you pay an outrageous price for the “finest known” example of a state quarter. OK great, but given the fact that the mintage ranges from the 100s of millions to over a billion pieces, who’s to say what were crop up in the future? This goes double if the high price you paid gets lots of publicity. More high grade coins are bound to come out of the woodwork.
Owning the “finest known” example of an early 19th century die variety can be controversial because different graders can have different opinions. With modern coins the opinions can be subject to more controversy because the difference between MS-68 and MS-69 can be virtually imperceptible.
The "current value" of super high grade moderns is based on the unreliable "pops" so how can current value of such be a reliable indicator of its true scarcity/rarity?
The pops aren't a reliable indicator. You're right. They're useful in determining what the submitted population graded, but still don't mean much when one considers the population of ungraded coins. It does a good job of pointing out what average for the date/mm is.
"It is the waiting which makes it so the dealer has no customer for the coin when you attempt to sell it back so he offers only 40% to 60% of its real value."
Dealers are not the market makers for these coins. A few dealers do, but not many yet. I have sold half dozen dealers nice moderns that were pretty pricey for 80-90% of retail, so there is a market, but it's still very thin and young. The market exists among enthusiasts and specialty dealers. That will eventually change, but investors would do well to remember they're buying outside the mainstream. Most modern collectors don't care too much about that, as the primary motivation for many of them is to build a very high quality set while the coins are abundant. If you don't know what's really difficult in your series, you run the risk of overpaying for common. That's a fair concern. It's not unique to moderns.
40 to 60%? 20% or less, if any offer at all, is more the reality.
My experience is different than that. I expect your observation is accurate for common coins, but for the truly difficult stuff, that's not the reality I've observed.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
You said something that JDimmick and I talked about the other day at length. I think the difference in 68 and 69 is probably the easiest to see for a novice. If you give a collector with any experience a 68-69 coin and ask him whether it's perfect, he'll tell you. It may take 20 minutes, but if there's a flaw, they'll find it. They have much more trouble telling the difference in 65-66. JMO
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>
The "current value" of super high grade moderns is based on the unreliable "pops" so how can current value of such be a reliable indicator of its true scarcity/rarity? >>
No. Absolutely not. The value of all coins is based on supply and demand. This has always been true.
When the pops increase on the moderns, the price will still be based on supply and demand. Current
value is only an indication of supply and demand. The "supply" side of this equation includes raw coins
but only to the degree that they are equivalent to supplying the demand. ie- where the demand is pri-
marily for registry sets the supply will more closely reflect the pops.
<< <i>
40 to 60%? 20% or less, if any offer at all, is more the reality. >>
This is probably true in most cases since the corner dealer is also still waiting and prudently doesn't
want to stick his neck out buying a coin which he's not familiar with and for which he probably has no
customer. But it is easy enough to get 40 to 60% if you ship it off and you will do better if you wait
for a good offer. Certainly, price can be more ephemeral in a thin market.
<< <i>The price of ANY numismatic item can fall very quickly if a new hoard comes on the market. Among the classic coins, the 1903-O silver dollar is a prime example. In the early 1960s the price of that one fell from $1,500 to $15 in BU condition when a hoard of them was found in the treasury vaults. Ditto for the 1857-S double eagle and the Type I double eagle as a type coin after the SS Central America coins came on the market.
The trouble with some modern coin issues is that there are hoards of coins all over the place. Let's say you pay an outrageous price for the “finest known” example of a state quarter. OK great, but given the fact that the mintage ranges from the 100s of millions to over a billion pieces, who’s to say what were crop up in the future? This goes double if the high price you paid gets lots of publicity. More high grade coins are bound to come out of the woodwork.
>>
I've been extremely close to these coins for a very long time. I've done a huge amount of
work looking for rarities and gems and have paid close attention since a market for them
began evolving in 1979. It seems virtually impossible to me that there are any systematic
hordes for most of these coins. Where these were released to circulation, they would be
dispersed before you could get to them. Where they were released in mint sets they were
far too widely disseminated to acquire a horde. There is scant evidence that people saved
even the typicl examples. There are no rolls of '69 or '93-D quarters so why would someone
go to extreme effort to locate gems and put hem aside. Almost no one believed any of these
coins could ever be collectible much less valuable.
Perhaps a couple of stories to illustrate the point; The finest '72-D quarters were probably
in the mint sets shipped to the St Louis, MO area. When one went to look at the sets here
though there was no line looking for mint sets or quarters. Several dealers told me that no
one ever mentioned looking for such coins. Even if there were someone in St Louis attempting
to "corner the market" on these, he'd have his work cut out for him. Only a very small percent-
age of the '72-D's are top notch even in St Louis and only a small percentage of the sets are
on the market at any given time.
I went to Sandusky, Ohio in 1983 to find an '82-NMM dime. I showed up at the coin shop early
in the day of the second week after they were reported so I could be first in line. I was the line.
In fact the proprieter told me I was the only one who had shown up at all!!!
Are there hordes. Maybe, maybe not, but definitely not in the way that people think of hordes.
There have been a small but growing number of collectors for these over the years. If a Kennedy
collector tripped over a gem bag of nickels while looking for something, he'd likely sort out the
gems to trade with other collectors for Kennedies. There are also a handfull of people who have
believed in these coins and their potential for many years. I would assume that they would tend
to accumulate them. There are a couple of entities which almost certainly have hordes of these
but I know when they started and have some idea what they have. These hordes are probably
far smaller than most would imagine and are hardly comprehensive. The logistics and effort to
acquire large numbers of most of these coins are simply staggeringly formidable. The coins made
in the last couple generations are in circulation. As far as collector versions- - what you see is
what you get.