An example of why modern collecting is very volatile...

coinlieutenant

Yikes on the IKE's

Bubblehead

Speaking of Ike's...
DHRC e-Shop is now listing the complete proof Ike set, at $495.00.
Let me tell 'ya, when I put that same (11 coin) set together for one of my grandson's couple of years back, I spent triple that amount...
Maybe more!

RYK

Sorry, John, but this topic holds little interest for me. I would not pay more than face value for an IKE. That probably goes for anything clad. $1000 for an IKE? I can think of a lot of great and truly scarce coins that $1000 can buy. Coins that are fundamentally scarce, not coins that end up in my pocket change or desk drawer as oddities.

coinlieutenant

You hit the nail on the head Robert...I agree with you...BUT....

some people like to collect this type of coin and that is certainly their perogative. My purpose is just to show that pitfalls exist and most modern dealers dont like to talk about them...

keets

hey John

while your point is a pertinent one it's always wise to remember that knowledge is power. in this case, it pays to be aware of what the helpful "knowledge" might be. watch the pop reports and always be aware of the fact that there are many coins with the potential to be submitted. it also helps to learn the area(s) where you're collecting/speculating in the Modern arena a bit closer than other areas, though all areas of Numismatics can be just as volatile and subject to almost overnight price crashes. that summer casino hoard of Morgan Bullion comes to mind, yet is conveniently brushed aside in discussions about sudden and unexpected availablity of coins. there have been many, probably the best known being the early 1960's crash of dates like 1903-O where many took a bath. i think it's safe to say that Moderns don't hold any edge in the price-volatilty-due-to-sudden-as-yet-unknown-hoards-appearing-on-the-market. they just get a bit more publicity nowadays because the Modern market is drawing so much attention from those who don't collect in that area.

al h.

coinlieutenant

Al,

So you are saying that it is just as likely for the pops to sky rocket on a 1891 Seated quarter as Ikes?

J

RYK

Al and John,

One thing I would add is that I do have great respect for collectors who have the patience and knowledge to pick out and "make" these pop top modern coins. That is a helluva lot more than I do on my lazy derriere. I especially like it when they sell them to others for a huge profit. I get a vicarious thrill from it.

keets

So you are saying that it is just as likely for the pops to sky rocket on a 1891 Seated quarter as Ikes?

hey John

while that's not what i'm trying to say---and i think you know that---i will say that i appreciate the effort in helping me say what i am trying to say.

i know nothing about the pops for your Seated Quarter example, but you evidentally do, which goes directly to my point of knowledge when we collect. i happen to collect Modern coinage by series as well as more Classic issues by type. i take great pains to be aware of what's happening and hesitate to dig deep for an issue i believe i can find raw or that i believe other collectors may be able to find raw in bulk. i assume you do the same in areas where you collect, at least i would hope you do.

with classic issues, it may be more difficult to ascertain what might show up in hoards, but i do believe that any collector who spends excessive money on certain issues or certain grade/variety rarities may be standing on a slippery slope. again, the best way to avoid those mistakes is to excercise the muscle between our ears.

so, tell me about that Quarter...............and then i'll tell you my Jefferson story.

al h.

coinlieutenant

Al,

I just picked a "non modern" to make a point. I thought your statement of:

"Moderns don't hold any edge in the price-volatilty-due-to-sudden-as-yet-unknown-hoards-appearing-on-the-market. they just get a bit more publicity nowadays because the Modern market is drawing so much attention from those who don't collect in that area."

was misleading although not intentionally.

I truthfully dont follow pops on the type of stuff that I collect. If I collected morgans or moderns I certainly would and I agree with what you said. Education is paramount.

However, too many new you collectors come into the hobby with rose colored glasses on. They listen to the hype and fall prey to the wolves.
Dealers on this very board, *shocked look*, love to talk about low pop, high grade moderns and their potential. My only intention is to show that there is a side that they do not like to talk about with laymen.

John

keets

.............and now my Jefferson story.

about two years ago the pop for a 1973-S PCGS PR69DCAM Jefferson stood at around 30-34 coins and had held stable, rising slowly. i submitted what i thought were two very choice coins i'd managed to find in sets and was rewarded with two PR69DCAM's by PCGS. i promptly offered one at the BST for a then very reasonable $175, sold it and placed the other in my set. i was content that the pop would hold stable as it had and rise slowly. boy, was i wrong!!!!

about two months later member RGL posted something here about the early 70's Jefferson pops rising sharply, almost overnight from less than 35 to almost 200!! in retrospect it would have been wise to have sold both and then filled the hole in my set for the much lower sum of about $40. this little experience prompted me to start buying hard-copy PCGS pop reports and i now track trends for certain dates.

i'm not a pop follower either, but the reports show me things like when certain designations were first added and when a coin may have been holdered, using condor's book as a guide. these things have helped me avoid some blunders and mis-directed dollars.

al h.

coinlieutenant

Sound advice...



J

roadrunner

One point of note is that we know there are bazillions of Ikes out there to be graded. We really don't know what's still out there with the classic hoards of Morgans, etc. Each successive hoard of Morgans has only pumped the market in the end. I don't think the same could be said for an Ike. One thing is for sure...but will drop in price like rocks, along with most every other common collectible when the next recession hits.

roadrunner

keets

we know that for sure???

al h.

Russ

I own a modern for which I've turned down offers as high as $7500. Should I sell it because this volatility will cause it to drop to less than it cost me?

Russ, NCNE

MadMarty

Hey Russ, sell me the 68DCAM AH for $100 then you won't have to worry about it!

Russ

I see Marty has been drinking - heavily - again.

Russ, NCNE

RYK

I own a modern for which I've turned down offers as high as $7500.

I do not know your basis, but unless the coin were important to my collection, if I could turn a profit on it, I would take the $7500 in a heartbeat.

RYK

Russ' is a good example of what I like about moderns. You can dilligently search proof and mint sets and find high grade, conditionally scarce, and attractive coins for a reasonable price with low risk. I think that's great, and I expect that it is also very gratifying for the person searching for the coins and adding them to his/her Registry. Frankly, I wish I had the eye, the time, and the patience to do it myself.

What concerns me is that someone might actually pay $7500 for it.

DHeath

I would take the $7500 in a heartbeat.

RYK,

I used to have that opinion as well. Unlike Russ, I sold a few coins I should have kept. One was 5 figures. What I have come to realize though is that the coins I sold may not surface again raw, at least for me. I have burned through a ton of original raw material, and once the sources of this material are exhausted, they simply don't replentish themselves. I don't mean that there isn't raw modern material to be found. I mean the opportunity to see virgin material within a 200 mile radius of my house has changed, and instead of keeping the rarities from my region, I took the money. It isn't that much money. Russ submitted his coin raw, and holdered it as a condition rarity himself. In competition with ALL the modern submitters in the US for the last 15 years, he won, and that coin is his trophy. Part of the fun we modern folks have that some of the other collectors miss is the competition to "be the one" to locate and holder the best of the best within our series. That's the essence of our own forum "You Suck".

I agree with the premise of this thread, at least in part. In the example given, the 76 silver Ike is not uncommon in supergrade. Like the 72-74, the 76 is usually at least a 65 coin, and 66 is pretty common. They were issued in the three piece set, and were generally nice. MS67 isn't rare, and paying a large premium for an MS68 is driven by the desire to own one sooner rather than later, not by absolute rarity. Frankly, an MS67 76 is a danged fine looking coin. Many Ike collectors would be satisfied with a 67 in that slot. The same is not true for the 72-P. They were not issued in mint sets, they were roll coins. The average coin is an MS63. An MS63 Ike is an ugly coin. An MS65 Ike isn't great, just adequate. The population of MS66 72-P coins will likely never outstrip demand. A collector who pays a large premium for an MS66 72-P is fairly safe. JMO

For modern collectors, I think the magic is knowing what to pay a premium for, not whether to collect moderns.

morgannut2

The problem I have with the whole modern vs. classics debate is that the Ike illustration shows the MS-67 pop jumping by over three hundred coins and the MS-68 by over 100 in less than two months! The notion that Morgans, a very common coin, would ever have that pronounced a population change in high grade is just silly. Say another 150,000 1880-S Morgans do show up in some hoard--how many MS-68's do you really expect there to be!! And because most of the dates in the mid '90's are 750,000 or less, it pretty much limits the number of new high-end coins that could ever show up. The only large number of ungraded Morgan's left are the common CC's still in peoples drawers forgotten. I understand the thrill and difficulty making high-end attractive modern collections. But the pops can and will go up, meaning the numbers of new collectors must keep pace, for prices to remain stable---the subject of this thread.

Russ

<< <i>The only large number of ungraded Morgan's left are the common CC's still in peoples drawers forgotten. >>



You're kidding, right? There are millions of ungraded Morgans from a variety of mints.

Russ, NCNE

khayse

>Sorry, John, but this topic holds little interest for me. I would not pay more than face value for an IKE
That's an amazing number of posts on something that holds so little of your interest.

>The notion that Morgans, a very common coin, would ever have that pronounced a population change in high grade is just silly.
Well, that's the reason for the original thread. What a bizarre occurance. Ikes have been graded for awhile now. An MS68
1976-S Ike has been worth a fair amount of money for awhile. Why all of a sudden is there this sudden increase?

6 months ago I would've told you how silly the idea of MS68 1976-S Ike's population doubling was.

-Khayse

DHeath

Most moderns sell for a fraction of the difference in one 95-O upgrade from MS63 to MS64. I suppose someone finding a bag of 95-O's stuck away in a hoard would have an impact, but I think that misses my point. There are coins within each modern series that most of us EXPECT to explode. There are also coin's we expect don't. That expectation isn't based on the pop reports, it is based on knowledge of the series.

I'm pretty familiar with the minting process for 1965 halves. Based on the well documented die preparation, planchet quality, production methods, and the thousands of sets I've examined, along with the many thousands of sets others have searched, I know what typical looks like. I also know that extraordinary falls in the MS68 Dcam range. There has never been one holdered. Since the cameo surfaces of the dies were rather delicate, only the very first strikes from fresh dies were deep cameo. The number of die pairs is fairly well estimated. Ironically, the same is true for DMPL Morgans. Although the entire population has not been graded, Morgan collectors have a very good idea of the relative rarity of each date/mm.

There are coins that make sense, and coins that don't. I guess that was my only observation. Most of the time, all moderns are painted with the same generalizations, and to many of us, that's an oversimplification. I would be as surprised to learn a hoard of 65 SMS Dcam halves had been discovered as you would to learn a hoard of 95-o's in DMPLs had been discovered.

wondercoin

As I previously mentioned in the thread on the Registry Board which pormpted this thread, as a collector of this particular coin, I was comfortable adding a few coins to my collection when the coin fell to around the $700 level earlier this year. Now, the pop has doubled and the coin is a $439.95 coin. And, this appears to show to some why modern coin collecting as a whole is so volatile.

BUT WAIT A MINUTE.....

In my other series of choice (where I proudly own the #2 set behind MANOFCOINS from our boards), which I concentrate on far more seriously (SILVER WASH QUARTERS), the pop on the the 1934(D) Washington quarter in PCGS-MS67 went from pop 1 to pop 3 this year. And, MANOFCOINS from our boards can confirm that the pop 1 coin was around a $40,000 coin. Then, the pop 2 coin was graded and the coins were roughly $30,000 coins. Then, a few months later the pop 3 coin was graded and the coin sold in the last Heritage sale for $15,000 plus buyers fee!! Perhaps the pop 4 coin might hold a $15,000 price level if and when it is graded? Who knows.

IMHO, clearly, collecting (scarce or rare) coins from 1934 are equally susceptible to 200% or 300% pop increases (as shown above) and upwards of 60%+ price corrections in a 6 month period - yet, for some reason, these situations are rarely discussed on these boards. Frankly, I am not sure why - as newbie collectors might also want to know about $40,000 "classics" (or moderns if you consider 1934 a modern year) that corrected to $17,500 in a 6 month period? Threads like that might even be a refreshing change from the modern threads - BUT, KEEP IN MIND, I am not suggesting modern threads are not important - threads like this one are important as well.

Wondercoin

morgannut2

Sorry for the poor wording Russ. There are indeed millions of Morgans ungraded. I was just trying to think of a large million coin group of Morgans in UNCIRCULATED that might yield a significant number of new MS-67 or 68 coins--- and the GSA CC's are the only group likely (which people seem to ignor!), other than a very common large mintage date like 1880-S. Sure there is a steady stream of old collections appearing ungraded on the market, but the change is gradual. In fact I'd speculate that more pop changes are from resubmissions and cross-overs. In that sense, there are actually many fewer Morgans (or older series coins that are actually more rare) than appear in the pop reports. Again I realize that finding top examples of moderns is far more challenging that many collectors understand, and many of them are indeed the classics of the future. For price stability however, you can't have 50% pop changes over two months, in my opinion, unless the number of new collectors increases the same amount.

Tonelover

Wondercoin, what was the population increase on some of the PCGS MS-68 Clad Quarters like the 96-P and 96-D? I noticed that you had some ebay auctions end with no takers at 1/10th the price you were offering them for a while back.

If the clad Quarters tripled in population (which they may or may not have, I don't know) why is it that they're down much more on a percentage basis than the 34-D Quarter you alluded to?

Is it the size of the collector base or something else?

morgannut2

In the semi-key Washingtons (I sold my set too soon!) the big price swings are more a function of the registry set/collector base changes. After you get five or more pop-tops (the MS-67 1936-D is an example), it also becomes a function of the quality and eye appeal of the coin. It's always dangerous to buy any pop 3 or rarer coin, unless you're sure there isn't a chance for new ones to appear (ie. 1804 $1, 1885 $1 Trade, etc.). Even then you can be assured the crackout boys are always gunning to tie you on any tough pop-top date.

wondercoin

"Is it the size of the collector base or something else?"

Jon: The collector base clearly is an issue with certain modern series. I also think "gradeflation" plays into it a bit at times with some moderns. For example, IMHO, PCGS tended to grade MS Kennedys and clad quarters far tighter than other modern series in years past. Indeed, PCGS has yet to grade a single clad (1965-1998) quarter MS69 (and only -3- clad Kennedys in MS69) - but, I think that will change as PCGS continues to see a lot more coins. For example, just last month, I dusted off an MS66 Kennedy Half dated 1969(d) in my #2 personal set that cost me hundreds of dollars more when I bought it a couple years ago than it would sell for today as a generic MS66. Only difference is the coin regraded MS67 first time through at PCGS and is now a pop 2 coin worth multi-thousands of dollars. I do believe a number of earlier graded MS clad quarters may have an opportunity for the same glory in the years ahead.

Wondercoin

Russ

<< <i>What concerns me is that someone might actually pay $7500 for it. >>



RYK,

One also has to consider the value of time. I love hunting these things and have the time to do it. Not everyone enjoys the hunt, and most don't have as much screwing around time as I do. To illustrate, let's take the specific example of the coin to which I referred; the Accented Hair in PCGS PR68DCAM.

If a proof Kennedy collector wants to build the very best set possible, they need that coin. The pop is currently listed as 8/0 (I think it's actually 7/0). Mine was graded in April 2003. Before that it had been about two years since one had been graded, and none have been graded since.

There are approximately 200 to 250 surviving examples of the Accented Hair in true deep cameo at any grade level. There were nearly four million proof sets minted for 1964. That means that the odds of a DCAM Accented Hair appearing in a proof set are approximately one coin in every 16,000 to 20,000 sets - again, that's in any grade.

Since the coin is plagued by problems, most notably obverse hairlining and milk spotting, the odds of finding a high grade deep cameo are further diminished. Based on grade distribution in the current deep cameo population, we're now down to the likelihood of finding a PR68DCAM Accented Hair once in every 128,000 to 160,000 sets.

So, the question becomes: If one is a dedicated proof Kennedy collector and wants only the best, how much time would it take them to find one raw before they've hit that value of $7500?

Russ, NCNE

RYK

...So, the question becomes: If one is a dedicated proof Kennedy collector and wants only the best, how much time would it take them to find one raw before they've hit that value of $7500?

Russ, I understand your position and analysis.

You are a connoisseur of Kennedy's. You have done your homework. You have examined thousands of coins. You know more about them than anyone on the planet. If you did not own the 1964 AH DCAM-68, would YOU buy it from someone else for $7500?

RYK

Expanded answer:

I collect coins that are fundamentally scarce. That is, they are scarce in all grades. To me, it is just not that interesting or compelling that a couple hundred coins are superior to a few thousand coins that are better than hundreds of thousands that exist for the same date.

This week, on an impulse, I purchased a pop 10 coin. Pop 10 for the grade? No. Pop 10-- meaning a total of ten have been certified in all conditions. To me, that is really cool. It is a 19th century silver coin in a popular series. I paid about one-seventh the price of the value of your pop 8/0 Kennedy.

DHeath

I paid about one-seventh the price of the value of your pop 8/0 Kennedy.

RYK,

It sounds like an interesting coin, and it's important to collect what you enjoy. The only observation I'd make is that the coin you describe has been truly rare for the last 200 years, and it was available recently for $800. It sounds like the price was partially driven by demand, and the series is so difficult most collectors don't chase the coins. Price is a combination of supply/demand, but despite volatility, there is great demand for Russ' coin.

Russ

<< <i>If you did not own the 1964 AH DCAM-68, would YOU buy it from someone else for $7500? >>



No, not even if I could afford to. But, that has nothing to do with it's value, and everything to do with enjoying the challenge of finding and making coins rather than buying them already slabbed.

Edited to add: You can't discount the demand side of the equation. If a coin has only two known examples, but only one person who wants an example, it isn't worth much. If a coin has 20,000 examples, but 100,000 who need one, it could be very valuable. There are a LOT of proof Kennedy collectors and there always has been.

Russ, NCNE

Russ

I hope Don doesn't mind, but I'd like to further illustrate the point with a coin he made - one that is even more valuable than mine. The 1966 SMS Kennedy in MS68DCAM. He made the coin in May of 2003. It was a pop 4/0 then, and is still a pop 4/0 now. At the time he sold it for just north of five figures. I can guarantee that, based on the current market, he sold the coin way too cheap. In other words, the value has climbed substantially in 18 months - for a modern.

Russ, NCNE

Russ

Based on a PM I just got, I need to clarify something. The figure of 200 to 250 extant DCAM Accented Hairs is not based on what has been graded. In fact, between both PCGS and NGC, only 90 have been graded, and some of those should not be in DCAM/UCAM holders. The figure is based on the estimated number of ODV-001 dies (50) produced by the mint and the fact that they made no effort to match dies, minus 40 years of attrition.

So, in context (the value of time), one is searching millions of sets to find a couple hundred coins.

Russ, NCNE

Coinhusker1

Nice set of posts, Russ. Your analysis makes sense and was very informative.

IrishMike

I collect Irish coins minted in the 1600's , coins minted in the 19th century, 20th century and three years ago. Collect and spend what you like. The only caveat is spend only what you can afford to spend. I would guess that there as many folks who spend more than they should on 18 and 19 century coins as those who do for moderns (whatever they are).

JxnBoy

I've found this thread very interesting. The major points I take away: Know what you're collecting. In Don's and Russ' cases, there is little chance that a horde of DCAM AH Kennedy Halves or 1966 DCAM SMS Halves will ever come to market. Although you can argue that there are thousands upon thousands of these coins and only eight of some obscure 19th century piece, if there are only 8 AH DCAMs graded 68 and only 4 1966 DCAMs graded 68, they are all truly rare coins.

Second, know what's important to you. If you want the registry points right now and want to buy a $1000 Ike, go ahead. You value the points and being at the top or near the top (I guess - since I have no registry sets), if that's what you're after, it's all you.

That's what I love about this hobby. There are so many different series and ways to collect, is anyone ever really wrong to collect what they want?

Garneteye

<< <i> There are so many different series and ways to collect, is anyone ever really wrong to collect what they want? >>

majorbigtime

Trading this modern stuff is a prime example of the Bigger Fool Theory IMO.

morgannut2

Part of my problem with moderns, besides having zero idea how to grade them, is that they do not have an established investment track record. And at $7,500 each some part of your hobby is also an investment--time finding, or money buying. But I have to say with the Kennedys of Russ, they are popular, recognized, and even collected world wide. Basically I admit that I'm interested enough now to have written down Russ's registry set, and now look at mint sets in sales, hoping to find a nice coin or two.

Russ

<< <i>Trading this modern stuff is a prime example of the Bigger Fool Theory IMO. >>



This from the guy who plunked down over $900 for junk paper money in an eBay auction that clearly said "as-is".

Russ, NCNE

cladking

<< <i>Sorry, John, but this topic holds little interest for me. I would not pay more than face value for an IKE. That probably goes for anything clad. $1000 for an IKE? I can think of a lot of great and truly scarce coins that $1000 can buy. Coins that are fundamentally scarce, not coins that end up in my pocket change or desk drawer as oddities. >>



You and much of the coin collecting fraternity won't pay more than face value for a modern. Many
collectors have never even really looked at a modern. Those of us who have are having a hoot and
the last laugh.

cladking

<< <i>One point of note is that we know there are bazillions of Ikes out there to be graded. We really don't know what's still out there with the classic hoards of Morgans, etc. Each successive hoard of Morgans has only pumped the market in the end. I don't think the same could be said for an Ike. One thing is for sure...but will drop in price like rocks, along with most every other common collectible when the next recession hits.

roadrunner >>



While all collectors of high grade classics are wealthy, some collectors of moderns are
also wealthy. So long as rare moderns trade at a small fraction of the price of equally
rare classics it would seem moderns actually offer more resistence to outside market
forces.

Baley

could we define "rare modern" please?

do we mean "conditionally rare" as in "this coin is one of just 3 or 4 in this very high condition, out of millions minted and hundreds of thousands that still exist in nice uncirculated condition"

or do we mean, "Rare in any condition, such as some of the error proof coins without the mintmark"

cladking

<< <i>could we define "rare modern" please?

do we mean "conditionally rare" as in "this coin is one of just 3 or 4 in this very high condition, out of millions minted and hundreds of thousands that still exist in nice uncirculated condition"

or do we mean, "Rare in any condition, such as some of the error proof coins without the mintmark"

>>



Just as usual there is really no difference between moderns and classics in terminology. Rare
means one or a few pieces in existence. This can be one of the dozens of moderns which were
initially made in such numbers such as the 1964 clad quarter or it can apply to coins which are
only rare in specific conditions such as MS-66 or PR-70.

Manorcourtman

What amazes me is how the Old guard is missing the boat. Thanks for being a modern hater!! You have helped many of us make serious money on junk. Please ignore the modern junk....as the saying goes..."one man garbage is one mans treasure." In 10 years the supposed experts will realize they missed the boat. Sorry for your luck you experts.

coppercoins

There are probably a number of us who collect for the study of it...something to do, something to collect. For those of us who enjoy the hobby more than the money, there's nothing wrong with collecting "worthless moderns." I get tired of everything in this hobby having to center around value. You completely lose the point when all you worry about is the resale value of your collection.

DHeath

could we define "rare modern" please?

Can anyone define rare Morgan? The discussion of moderns usually becomes a discussion of the conceptual validity of condition rarity. Does that have much to do with volatility? Are 1909-S V.D.B.'s rare? How about 32-D Washingtons. Why is an 84-s Morgan in MS67 listed in the PCGS price guide at half-million dollars? Are they rare overall, or just in gem? As a concept, excluding moderns because they're only conditionally rare holds no more merit than it would if you excluded all common coins. Frankly, those are the most popular collector coins.

Baley

In my opinion, none of the coins you mention are rare, only scarce relative to demand.

DHeath

Baley, I agree.

Rare moderns? Dcam 65 halves. 64 SMS coins. 24 carat Sac's (10 minted), supergem 72-P Ikes, certain date Jeffs in full step, no mint mark coins, many errors, off metals, mules, and a host of others. There are many that are conditionally rare, but in most series, it's limited to a few key coins. One can be pretty sure there are only a handful of MS68 82-83 Kennedys in existence. If a collector puts away a few in MS67, there will likely always be enough demand to make those coins work. The important thing, IMO, is paying close attention and focusing on the legitimate condition rarities. Now may be a good time. I wish I'd have been able to pay a premium for conditionally rare Walkers while they were contemporary. JMO