Just curious as to what others are thinking about silver right now. I hadn't checked it in a while and it seems to have gone down quite a bit. (At least public shares in silver). Could now be a good time to get in?
<< <i>Just curious as to what others are thinking about silver right now. I hadn't checked it in a while and it seems to have gone down quite a bit. (At least public shares in silver). Could now be a good time to get in? >>
I think it is - Silver's low entry price should make it appealing to the masses, should they ever wise up and move some of their paper into hard assets. I've picked up a few Engelhard bars lately, and probably will try to acquire a few more over the summer.
<< <i>this chart shows how silly it is to judge gold day by day. for the last few years everything has been uphill. 1000 an ounce within a seven years seems very reasonable.
>>
Of course, $300 an ounce is just as reasonable.
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
<< <i><<1000 an ounce within a seven years seems very reasonable.>>
Why? Because all charts go straight up??? >>
No, because the way were creating money out of thin air or don't you get that. You spend more than you bring in and yes even Uncle Sam has to pay the piper at some point and they've already allowed your average American to have cheap credit with no way of paying it back and closed the bankrupt path to discharge debt.
<< <i>The way WE ARE or the way WE WERE creating money? >>
Do you think we stopped creating money. When rates go up who will pay the most interest? The biggest debtor, the US government.
Where will this money to pay the interest on the debt come from? Taxes?? Reserves?? or will they just create it?
High interest creates more DEMAND for dollars as it creates more dollars. When the demand slackens the problem is even bigger, more dollars than before with still nothing to back them.
I was watching with interest Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking of his concerns about inflation rearing its ugly head. It is quite obvious that his comments was meant to buttress his reputation as a semi-hawk against inflation.
This may in itself be dangerous as he should have let his actions speak louder than his words. Now he has to hope that the Regional Fed directors will vote with him to raise the Fed discount another 1/4% at the end of June or he will lose even more credibility.
Furthermore, if the economy cools even more, he also lost his "flexibility" to make a decision on what to do regarding Federal Reserve Discount rates at the end of June. He needs to learn how to be more obsfucate like Greenspan was.
Of course, the stock market does not like his hawkish comments to raise the federal discount rate beyond 5%. But a stock market correction was overdue anyway.
Perception is 90% of the reality these days anyway.
Obviously gold and silver are taking a bit of a hit which is more due to profit taking/price correction rather than an immediate fear of increases in the interest rates which directly affect the cost of holding/owning commodities.
Sometimes the data selection skews the interpretation. If instead of going back 6 years, you go back 10 years. Then the picture demonstrates no change from 96 to 04. The graph is a shallow U for that time frame and then it takes an upward direction.
My point is that everything is context. Just as the real estate market moved upward for 4 or 5 years, so has gold. It is not a permanent upward ride. The knowledgable will profit and the followers will get hammered. Look at the investors who got into real estate last fall.
The only question for me is, when not if, the gold market will peak. I voted with my wallet last month.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
How come gold is going down with stocks due to a fear of inflation? That doesn't make sense to me. Most of this year, gold and stocks have been positively correlated. I don't understand that.
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
<< <i>How come gold is going down with stocks due to a fear of inflation? That doesn't make sense to me. Most of this year, gold and stocks have been positively correlated. I don't understand that. >>
The market is going down because they read the FED as being vigilant against inflation--i.e. they are going to keep raising rates. Rising rates could keep a lid on inflation and hence a lid on commodities. Rising rates could also cause a recession which would impact demand and hence cause commodity prices to fall.
<< <i>The market is going down because they read the FED as being vigilant against inflation--i.e. they are going to keep raising rates. Rising rates could keep a lid on inflation and hence a lid on commodities. Rising rates could also cause a recession which would impact demand and hence cause commodity prices to fall. >>
Yeah -- it's not like the Fed ever overshoots and creates boom and bust cycles through excessive easing or tightening...oh, wait. They do that almost every time.
Please excuse me in advance for my speculations, but my belief is that all of this talk on Wall Street, from the media, and from the Fed is just smoke and mirrors. We had inflation when the rates were one percent, yes now we are going to see some additional inflation, but that has not changed in the last two decades. We have inflation every year more or less just different numbers on the CPI.
I think the Fed is now simply motivated by how much debt they must move and how can they roll it over, interest include, since we have no way to pay it off.
WE MUST OBSORB 80% plus of all the world’s investment capitol or the whole house of cards collapses. All around the world people are sick of the U.S. dollar, and the fun loving spend today, pay tomorrow, attitude of the American public. Iran wants to trade oil in Euros, Russia wants Rubles for its oil, Chavez wants Euros and to do us in. China is buying up oil, gold, and other commodities spending dollars.
The Fed has no choice but to raise the interest rates until the debt sells, all the rest is smoke and mirrors for the American press!
And why did gold go down? Here is why more manipulation!
Tuesday, June 06, 2006, 11:41:00 AM EST Author: Jim Sinclair
“Now consider the fact that the world is awash in dollars – foreigners sit and observe the dollar losing value. They then prudently desire to reduce their supply of dollar-backed assets. What are they going to buy with those US dollars to get rid of them? They cannot buy US hard assets such as oil companies (think Unocal) or ports (think Dubai Port Deal) since the political climate in Washington prohibits that. If they are not going to buy US stocks, if they are not going to buy US Treasuries but rather reduce their rate of buying those, if they cannot buy US hard assets such as companies, etc. then what is left? Answer - they will buy commodities as a store of wealth or sources of such commodities and that will include gold.
Gold did not fall $100/ounce because of fears of the yen carry trade unwinding or any of the other media driven stories. It fell because the Bank of England precipitated an attack on the price of copper to try to save the LME from collapsing due to the idiots who kept shorting copper in the middle of a roaring bull market. They had to do something to stop the price of copper from rising or risk watching their members default. They could not obtain surplus supplies of copper which with to flood the market BECAUSE THERE ISN’T ANY! So why not attack the gold price which can be done by mobilizing Central Bank gold supplies and using that extra supply to temporary knock the floor out from under the gold market. Then you sit back and watch the financial press and the same old top callers in gold make the case that the commodity boom was over sending the speculators who were wining the battle heading to the hills in a mass selling panic of commodities across the board. Voila - Mission Accomplished!”
"All around the world people are sick of the U.S. dollar..."
I know you're right but in thinking about this earlier it seems that we are proping up the world's economies by buying all their stuff (manufactured goods)...we are voracious consumers and we trade in dollars, trillions of dollars. We have outsourced enough labor and low management jobs that we now contribute a fair amount to the technological advancement and the education level of what were once hopeless masses, India in particular, and we pay in dollars. Unless that situation changes, people may hate the dollar but they have to have them to stay alive or grow. When we give our friends their international federal aid/dole, we pay in dollars. I do feel that we are providing so much fuel to the international engine with our USD's that it would be very interesting to see what would possibly replace it. I mean, can you imagine sending Botswana 5 mil. Euros from the US Federal Reserve, or Israel 20 mil. Euros from the citizens of the US, or Chase Bank/Microsoft/etc sending 40 mil Euros for call center work...nah, ain't gonna happen.
When it comes down to how things are going to go, it's always about the money...and right now the USD is growing the whole world (JMHO) and we're shipping those dollars out of here as fast as we can make them. It may be fiat currency, it may not be backed by gold, but it sure does spend good, most anywhere. I don't see any great pressure to go to the Euro...lots of people talk about it but it just isn't happening.
Good opinions here though, good posts, and excellent progonistactory material for consideration.
Credit Card Companies appear to be creating fiat money above and beyond the printing presses of the Fed. This money creation is unbacked and in effect enslaves generations of people in a high interest debt that is not intended to ever be paid back.Since the credit card is spent for consumables, there is no residual value for the assumed debt.
Investment houses, banks , Central Banks and users of precious metals are all playing a shell game .Selling and buying futures in precious metals that are so far in excess of any supply of actual , physical precious metals to back the paper contract.
Untold trillions of dollars in derivatives are being traded that form the security of the largest financial institutions in the world. When the con game of musical chaires ends, then these pieces of paper, which are totally unregulated and beyond any measure of reality shall collapse. Can you imagine what will happen when these supposed asset foundations fail. Hundres of trillions of dollars shall vanish from the face of the earth.
In order to keep the con game running, liquidity has been created on a world wide basis. We have fed the animal of consumerism untill eventually, it will begin to consume its own body. It can no longer be corrected by either Party, or any Government and all anyone can do is try to extend the game as long as possible before melt down. It is humerous, when people show concern with the Federal Debt of 6 trillion dollars, when the true unfunded liability of all vested programs in the USA, is probably 100 trillion dollars.
The total of all debt and fiat money created by unbacked credit cards, derivatives probably totals in excess of 1000 trillion dollars.It a number so vast, so unmanageable as to eventually doom the worlds current economic system. The beast that so many religious tomes refer to, is not a living creature, but rather it is the system of empty wealth and the computors that have made the game capable of such huge sums of poker chips.
<<Do you think we stopped creating money. When rates go up who will pay the most interest? The biggest debtor, the US government.
Where will this money to pay the interest on the debt come from? Taxes?? Reserves?? or will they just create it?>>
What no one is saying is the fact the U.S. has been doing this for YEARS, but today, they are issuing bonds at LOWER rates to borrow money. Just like so many have saved money by refinancing their homes at 5% vs. 12% or 17% (1976). Treasuries that were paying the HIGH rates - are gone. The gov is borrowing money at 50% savings (or greater) the rate they used to have to pay.
TODAY - Gold is simply a supply vs. demand with GREAT speculation. It is NOT playing as a hedge against inflation.
Remember, the FED RATE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OR EFFECT THE U.S. BORROWING RATES OF THE TREASURIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take for example the 30-year. It TRADES, just like a stock. If there are more buyers than sellers, the rate will go down and vise versa. The FED FUNDS RATE is the rate the fed lends money to its HIGHEST member banks, ON A DAILY BASIS. 30 years vs. a day, are completely different ballgames.
Take for example the 30-year. It TRADES, just like a stock. If there are more buyers than sellers, the rate will go down and vise versa. The FED FUNDS RATE is the rate the fed lends money to its HIGHEST member banks, ON A DAILY BASIS. 30 years vs. a day, are completely different ballgames
Exactly. What is really interesting is that I can the Govt can borrow money for 30ys at virtually the same rate at which it lends money to banks overnight. Who said the FED was stupid?
$300 gold is just as likely as gold continuing an upward trend? Hogwash.
Long Term Trends are "trends" until broken. The 5 yr trend in gold is still well intact. It would have been just as silly to say in 1998 or 1999 that the move in Stocks was over after a one week correction. You go with the major trend until the long term moving averages are busted wide open. There have been NO such signs in the price of gold. Not one weak link, no continued strength in the dollar, no drop of inflationary pressures, no removal of excess liquidity from the frothy world markets, etc. to change the overall trend at this time. Changing the head of a treasury is not an economic change.
Yes, Goldman Sachs is in bed with the Fed and Treasury. The Exchange Stabilization Fund works some of their magic via GS and other luminaries.
MUMBAI, JUNE 6: International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to have had apparently directed member central banks to double-count their gold when it had been leased or swapped or otherwise had left a central bank’s vault or possession. Such a provision allowance for the central banks may have led to the gold price suppression which lasted between 1989-2001, after which price started moving upwards. Gold hit a 26-year high of $732 an ounce on May 12. Gold has dropped 11% since then. Gold has not yet been able to cross the high of $ 830 mark it hit in 1988.
Central bank of US in particular has been seen as the primary mover in suppressing the gold price by lending the gold for trading without accounting for it. However, there have been no concrete proofs in this regard.
The paper, “Treatment of Gold Swaps and Gold Deposits (Loans),” written by Hidetoshi Takeda of the IMF’s Statistics Department and published in April acknowledges at length the potential for double-counting central bank gold under current IMF rules and suggests rules to prevent it.
The research paper commissioned by the IMF appears to confirm the US based Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) Committee’s longstanding complaint that the IMF has had been active on this front.
Responding to the research paper, GATA consultant Andrew Hepburn, who discovered the double-counting of leased and swapped gold at several IMF-member central banks, remarked that even in arranging to correct the gold deposit books of its members, the IMF still would allow them to be less than forthright.
Mr Hepburn noted IMF guidelines maintaining that “to qualify as reserve assets, gold deposits must be available upon demand to the monetary authorities.” But, Mr Hepburn added, central banks have lent so much gold to suppress its price and make it less competitive as a currency that their gold loans now far exceed annual gold mine production, and so the loaned gold cannot practically be repaid “upon demand.” Recovering the central banks’ loaned gold without exploding the gold market would take years.
In any case, the IMF’s acknowledgement of the double counting of loaned or swapped central bank gold is more evidence of central bank intervention in the gold market, Chris Powell, secretary/treasurer, GATA said in his dispatch.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Now look at this homeboys. Gold is down over 10 bucks going into NY trade and whammmmmmmmm, up near yesterdays close now.
Could it be that Goldman Sachs has hammered it down enough that they can start covering their short positions? Maybe their boy in the Treasury has informed them that the 2 carrier groups heading for the Gulf aren't going there for exercise.
JD, a 7 year time frame at this point for me, is just too far out to speculate on. I'm worried about the next 6 months to 2 years for the time being. A 7 year time frame could well be the end of gold on this cycle, or maybe not. At the end of the run it will be time to seek out whatever stocks have been beating down badly.
Bear made a very concise and thoughtful post of the current economic situation we face. Derivatives are unregulated bets...not much different than betting on a horse race. At least there someone gets some money. The bets on derivatives have no money behind them. And the guy that loses probably won't be able to pay up....hence US Govt to the rescue as in LTCM, Refco, and other "tiny" blowups that rocked the system. Wait until a big blowup like a JPM, GS, GM, Fannie, etc. that can really send out a jolt than cannot be "covered."
<< <i> Remember, the FED RATE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OR EFFECT THE U.S. BORROWING RATES OF THE TREASURIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take for example the 30-year. It TRADES, just like a stock. If there are more buyers than sellers, the rate will go down and vise versa. The FED FUNDS RATE is the rate the fed lends money to its HIGHEST member banks, ON A DAILY BASIS. 30 years vs. a day, are completely different ballgames. >>
Right, the only people that Bernanke is screwing, a Bush appointee, are the American people. It's not bad enough that we're paying outrageous prices for energy (basically a tax) and have LESS disposable income, but with the Fed raising rates, the American people have to pay more in interest, from Credit cards to Car loans.
Soon the voracious consumers are going to stop consuming. With no jobs available, (outsourcing), and wages stagnant, (work visas) it's only a matter of time.
I think they need to stop raising rates.
Does he think that he can stop the price of oil, gold or copper from going up, by raising interest rates for Americans??? This guy is living in the past, when America was strong. It's a GLOBAL economy now and raising rate isn’t' going to stop anything in China, India, Russia, etc. It's only going to screw the American people.
As for the Dollar, yes we send our dollars everywhere. The problem is that it keeps losing VALUE. China wants to buy stuff from Europe or oil for Saudi Arabia with all the American dollars they have, but guess what, it's only worth .75 euros’. Before it was 1 for 1. What will a U.S. dollar be worth tomorrow, 50 cent Euro?? Basically, China is getting the shaft and they are losing a TON of money by having to deal in U.S. Dollars. So they buy GOLD.
<< <i>JD, a 7 year time frame at this point for me, is just too far out to speculate on. I'm worried about the next 6 months to 2 years for the time being. A 7 year time frame could well be the end of gold on this cycle, or maybe not. At the end of the run it will be time to seek out whatever stocks have been beating down badly. >>
Why did you call hogwash then? We appear to agree. My comment was specifically in response to a previous post saying that a $1,000/oz price was realistic within a 7 year time frame, to which I responded that a $300 price point was just as likely. What's your issue with that?
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
Given all the movement in metal the past year or two, one thing does stand out to me. The variety of forces pushing and pulling on the gold and silver markets are quite diverse and multilayered. There is No single simple explanation or model for the recent behavior. There is most certainly a multivariate set of forces acting on metals and no single simple (relatively) model or explanation can be presented to explain it.
Right now, metals are moving together with the stock markets. That is not a regular or expected occurrance. I use this single observation to demonstrate how metals are reacting and not suggesting a causal relationship with the stock markets. Clearly, there are others.
My only take on the whole situation is that when I see the shysters on TV hawking gold, I get out. I may have been premature, but it is a very strong signal to me. For example, if someone begins to push rare coins as an investment, I would move to the sidelines there as well.
Just MHO on all of this craziness.
PS, I also agree with most of Bear's comments, he is a wise old bear!
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Does he think that he can stop the price of oil, gold or copper from going up, by raising interest rates for Americans??? This guy is living in the past, when America was strong. It's a GLOBAL economy now and raising rate isn’t' going to stop anything in China, India, Russia, etc. It's only going to screw the American people
The entire world is raising interest rates to combat inflationary pressures. I feel like going into a major rant, but I am too busy and I feel a rational discussion would fall on deaf ears.
“My only take on the whole situation is that when I see the shysters on TV hawking gold, I get out.”
Deepcoin,
Do you feel that way about the stocks that are hawked everyday 5 days a week?
TheStreet.com Senior Writer 6/7/2006 7:51 AM EDT
The backdating scandal has put stock options under the microscope again. But in their focus on how executives gamed the system to get bigger payouts, investors may be missing the big picture.
What may be more disturbing is what executives have done with options right out in the open -- without bending or breaking any rules.
At a number of companies, that form of dilution -- actual as opposed to possible dilution -- amounts to sizable portions of their outstanding share count. At Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq -, for instance, employees and executives have exercised 430 million options from 1997 through the first quarter of this year.
And it's not just Yahoo!. Options exercised since 1998 represent about 27% of what Broadcom's share count would be if not for stock buybacks. At Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq - the figure since 1996 is 20%. For eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - 16%, going back to 1999. For Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - since 1992, about 14%.
Without the weight of all those optioned shares holding it down, Yahoo's stock would be trading about 35% higher today than it is today.
Last year, for instance, the average eBay employee made about $65,000 just from exercising options.
Exercised options also represent a massive transfer of wealth from shareholders to corporate insiders. In 2005 alone, for instance, Yahoo! employees and executives gained an estimated $1.1 billion from exercising options,
"Why would any responsible money manager ever buy these stocks [when] the employees are making more money than the company?" asks Albert Meyer, an investment advisor at Bastiat Capital. "You can't run a business over a long period of time on that basis."
AAPL is one of my FAVORITE PICS for the rest of the year 2006, Ironically. Starting June 2nd...
Gold is SPECULATION (today).
The U.S. dollar will "quietly" turn stronger vs. the Euro and the Yen. Interest rates are STILL very low, and Inflation could only be a problem with heated GROWTH. Times are NOT bad.
I say quietly because the liberal negative press will NOT report anything positive, so as not to lose its audience.
1. Realizing the current state of consumption of "building supplies" world wide, considering particularly China and India, what mix or package of commodities would be best for the "interested investors"? Building supplies=commodities...If one were so disposed as to purchase these supplies, what individual component commodities would a prudent investor be owning/looking at in the next 3-5 year period?
2. Where would a buy and hold for the term guy get convenient access to a recommended commodity such as...how can you buy physical copper, can you buy timber, what about corn? Does one get shares, physical ownership/storage, participate in a pool account? How does the regular guy get a play in commodities futures without either being foolish or leaving a lot of paper out in the public domain?
The source of this question is that if sustained (3-5 years) international infrastructure/housing growth is going to be so vigorous, then there must certainly be some things that have to happen. There must be commodities that are not particularly cyclical but are necessary for international growth. There must be commodities that are in marginal supply during what appears to be a sustained upcurve in international development. What are they, where do you get them?
JD, while in 7years gold could go either way, I see $300 gold as a very slim possibility anytime in the next 10 years. Even after correcting from this longer term bull, I doubt we'll see $300 again. More than likely $800-$1000 may be the NEW base price.
Pro stocks: while I like the drags I nearly had to laugh my arse off yesterday as I sat through a 401K seminar put on buy our company's brokerage. Their sole solution to retirement? Looky here:
93% stocks, 7 % bonds if your retire in 2045 92%/8% if your retire in 2040 etc. 90%/10% if you retire in 2015 67%/33% if you retire in 2010. Well they certainly reduce the risk when you are 4 years away from retiring (lol)
This is certainly a safe way for the brokerage to make money. But to think stocks are 90% the place to be in all their very basic value/growth funds is ludicrous. 90%???? These guys don't even offer us a single commodity or natural resource fund of any kind. Pro-stock? You bet. These guys are all in bed together with the govt and corporations to take as much of your money as they can get.
When I ran this by our company's director of retirement plans they said that they could not seeing having an option for natural resources considering this is only a "hot sector." What they meant was that is was heading to burnout and is speculative (unlike standard tried and true stocks)...even if "hot" for 5 years so far that's not of concern. Since 401k plans have really never seen a serious down DOW or S&P you have to wonder if anyone knows what happened from 1966 to 1982. The brokerages "expect" us to weather those "brief" 15 year down cycles because 15% gains per year are coming again...right after them.
Remember the "It's only a loss, if you sell" line? I actually knew people who believed that. The market taught them otherwise....
But I admit, if I were a financial planner I would tell everyone to buy and hold. That way I'd never have to research anything, never gather any tax records, and never worry about people calling and bothering me. Just collect my annual fee, and put "Don't sell" on my voice mail!
mhammerman---you might want to look into this. Ticker symbol--DBC.
The Deutsche Bank tracking index has base weights of 35% crude oil, 20% heating oil, 12.5% aluminum, 10% gold, and 11.25% each in corn and wheat. The index is rebalanced each November.
Short-term Treasury bills provide collateral for the futures. The fixed-income portion of the portfolio generates yield, which could be used to offset the ETF's fees.
The ETF will roll the two energy futures on a monthly basis, and the remainder annually. Other less-liquid commodities such as coffee, sugar and livestock aren't included in the index.
I am at 90% stock, and 10% bond RIGHT NOW, with well, say responsible for multi millions under management and two large pension funds. I dont care if you retire today, or 20 years from now. 90-10. should be 100-0.
Here are my returns (average) from 2000. Yes , I want you to see the NEGATIVE years also. (Of course I had BOOM years, 1995-1999):
2000 +6.71% 2001 -1.12 2002 -12.12 2003 +30.67 2004 +17.71 2005 +18.81 (I'll explain why 2005 so high, when index averages were no where near)
2006 so for 5.65% return. WAS WAY BETTER, but dragged down because of my favorite fund (Valueline) not performing (so far) like last year: Have made some allocation changes since mid May, that tried to preserve a 11% gain for the year ( I strive to get 8% or higher for the year). Didnt preserve enough.
Allocation currently:
Fund ************** Percent allocation ****** return YTD as of tonight SP500 Index************* 10 *************** 0.67 LT Bond Index (Mellon) * 10 ************** - 1.28 Int'l Index **************** 20 **************** 6.41 Small Cap index ******** 10 **************** 4.64 Valueline 25 (favorite) ** 20 ************** -10.29 (It was 30% allocation last year - up 37.04%. AAPL 25% holding as of today) Dow 10/SP 15 ********** 10 **************** 6.41 Aim Real Estate Fund ** 10 *************** 11.61 (was 20% allocation 6/2/06) Mellon Oil/Gas ********** 10 *************** 5.10 (Obvious fund. Was big winner last year. I may drop it soon)
These are the allocations for my retirees also, most withdrawing about 6-7% a year to live off of. Not many complaints on the returns.
Why am I sharing this?? Plenty of areas to make money. I had 0% in any commodity/gold fund. Will not TOUCH it today.
Don't miss it a bit. Neither do my happy retirees, and union workers under the pension, who dont' even know what I am doing!!!.
But the U.S. is falling apart, right???? I started my career in this field 1989. Have heard all the negativity...
Every year.
PS. Maybe I am "risky" but the correct word is trying to generate the greatest return vs. the least amount of risk. NEVER have I been higher than 25% in bonds and cash. 10-year average is 12.55%. I don't know a retire that wouldn't take that.
Thanks Lloyd for sharing your info. As a comparison here is mine. These are over the same last six years. I put the allocations first.
Central Texas Real-estate, appreciation plus rents for the six year period + 72% Numismatic coins, mostly Bust halve dollars and Type over six years + 130% Cash in C.D.’s average over six years + 19% currently 5% Gold over six years +100 Silver over six years +200% Total 521%
I try to keep my allocations on each investment as close as possible, and pay for real-estate as it is purchased or shortly thereafter. If the real-estate were leveraged these rates of return would have been much greater.
The really big difference here, besides the rates of return, are that I have complete control over my assets. They are not subject to commissions, management fees, dilution by management, manipulation by insiders or wall street, etc.
Of course the gold and silver are still subject to manipulation as we constantly see, but then so is the stock market. Personally I feel in the next few years that will end as the worlds gold and silver supplies become dispersed worldwide to places like the middle east, china, India etc., and get beyond the control of western central bankers.
Goldsaint...who does your accounting? Arthur Anderson? Just kidding, but your yearly returns dont quite add up, but we all get your point. A diversified portfolio of assets performed well over the past 6 years.
All my retirement money is in stock index funds, diversified geographically & by capitalization. I think it's the way to go for the long term - and of course a well diversified index gives you exposure to commodities, utilities, etc. I have 10% of my wealth in gold but this is a last measure insurance, not an investment.
I'm impressed by GoldSaint's returns - who wouldn't... He calculated wrong the CAGR equivalent to his 6-yr return, but someone who achieves 35.5% returns consistently has my respect nonetheless. I'd be interested in seeing the year to year fluctuations, because you can't look at returns in isolation. I suspect there's much more risk in his portfolio than he thinks.
I'm curious whether the returns included all the associated costs - maintenance of the real estate, transaction costs for the coins including travel to shows (or at least the portion of those costs attributable to the coins included in the investment), tax liability on each profitable sale, etc.
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
<< <i>Central Texas Real-estate, appreciation plus rents for the six year period + 72% Numismatic coins, mostly Bust halve dollars and Type over six years + 130% Cash in C.D.’s average over six years + 19% currently 5% Gold over six years +100 Silver over six years +200% Total 521% >>
Did you just add up those % to get to 521? if so that's completly incorrect. Assuming you have the same amount in each (and that you have rebalanced consistently, which is unlikely), then your return over 6 years is 521% / 5 = 104%. Compounded annually that's 12.65% on average per year - nothing to spit at but not exactly unheard of, especially when considering all the other issues I mentionned previously (risk, and whether you really factored in all your associated costs).
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
My IRA is 100% equities, however it is only invested for a total of about 2 months a year. I usually buy one day and sell within hours to a week. Then I sit in cash. I hate holding overnight. I have averaged 22.3% since Jan 2001.
My trading account is 300% invested (equities, etfs only) at times, but never overnight. My returns are quite high, but so is my blood pressure.
Comments
<< <i>Just curious as to what others are thinking about silver right now. I hadn't checked it in a while and it seems to have gone down quite a bit. (At least public shares in silver). Could now be a good time to get in?
>>
I think it is - Silver's low entry price should make it appealing to the masses, should they ever wise up and move some of their paper into hard assets. I've picked up a few Engelhard bars lately, and probably will try to acquire a few more over the summer.
POTD = 09/03/2003
<< <i>this chart shows how silly it is to judge gold day by day. for the last few years everything has been uphill. 1000 an ounce within a seven years seems very reasonable.
Of course, $300 an ounce is just as reasonable.
Robert A. Heinlein
Why? Because all charts go straight up???
<< <i><<1000 an ounce within a seven years seems very reasonable.>>
Why? Because all charts go straight up???
No, because the way were creating money out of thin air or don't you get that. You spend more than you bring in and yes even Uncle Sam has to pay the piper at some point and they've already allowed your average American to have cheap credit with no way of paying it back and closed the bankrupt path to discharge debt.
The way WE ARE or the way WE WERE creating money?
<< <i>The way WE ARE or the way WE WERE creating money? >>
Do you think we stopped creating money. When rates go up who will pay the most interest? The biggest debtor, the US government.
Where will this money to pay the interest on the debt come from? Taxes?? Reserves?? or will they just create it?
High interest creates more DEMAND for dollars as it creates more dollars. When the demand slackens the problem is even bigger, more dollars than before with still nothing to back them.
This may in itself be dangerous as he should have let his actions speak louder than his words. Now he has to hope that the Regional Fed directors will vote with him to raise the Fed discount another 1/4% at the end of June or he will lose even more credibility.
Furthermore, if the economy cools even more, he also lost his "flexibility" to make a decision on what to do regarding Federal Reserve Discount rates at the end of June. He needs to learn how to be more obsfucate like Greenspan was.
Of course, the stock market does not like his hawkish comments to raise the federal discount rate beyond 5%. But a stock market correction was overdue anyway.
Perception is 90% of the reality these days anyway.
Obviously gold and silver are taking a bit of a hit which is more due to profit taking/price correction rather than an immediate fear of increases in the interest rates which directly affect the cost of holding/owning commodities.
That would be a 50% gain over 7 years. Thats 6.4% per year. You could acheive almost the same by buying a treasury bond. And ALOT less risk.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My point is that everything is context. Just as the real estate market moved upward for 4 or 5 years, so has gold. It is not a permanent upward ride. The knowledgable will profit and the followers will get hammered. Look at the investors who got into real estate last fall.
The only question for me is, when not if, the gold market will peak. I voted with my wallet last month.
Robert A. Heinlein
<< <i>How come gold is going down with stocks due to a fear of inflation? That doesn't make sense to me. Most of this year, gold and stocks have been positively correlated. I don't understand that. >>
The market is going down because they read the FED as being vigilant against inflation--i.e. they are going to keep raising rates. Rising rates could keep a lid on inflation and hence a lid on commodities. Rising rates could also cause a recession which would impact demand and hence cause commodity prices to fall.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The market is going down because they read the FED as being vigilant against inflation--i.e. they are going to keep raising rates. Rising rates could keep a lid on inflation and hence a lid on commodities. Rising rates could also cause a recession which would impact demand and hence cause commodity prices to fall. >>
Yeah -- it's not like the Fed ever overshoots and creates boom and bust cycles through excessive easing or tightening...oh, wait. They do that almost every time.
I think the Fed is now simply motivated by how much debt they must move and how can they roll it over, interest include, since we have no way to pay it off.
WE MUST OBSORB 80% plus of all the world’s investment capitol or the whole house of cards collapses. All around the world people are sick of the U.S. dollar, and the fun loving spend today, pay tomorrow, attitude of the American public. Iran wants to trade oil in Euros, Russia wants Rubles for its oil, Chavez wants Euros and to do us in. China is buying up oil, gold, and other commodities spending dollars.
The Fed has no choice but to raise the interest rates until the debt sells, all the rest is smoke and mirrors for the American press!
And why did gold go down? Here is why more manipulation!
Tuesday, June 06, 2006, 11:41:00 AM EST
Author: Jim Sinclair
“Now consider the fact that the world is awash in dollars – foreigners sit and observe the dollar losing value. They then prudently desire to reduce their supply of dollar-backed assets. What are they going to buy with those US dollars to get rid of them? They cannot buy US hard assets such as oil companies (think Unocal) or ports (think Dubai Port Deal) since the political climate in Washington prohibits that. If they are not going to buy US stocks, if they are not going to buy US Treasuries but rather reduce their rate of buying those, if they cannot buy US hard assets such as companies, etc. then what is left? Answer - they will buy commodities as a store of wealth or sources of such commodities and that will include gold.
Gold did not fall $100/ounce because of fears of the yen carry trade unwinding or any of the other media driven stories. It fell because the Bank of England precipitated an attack on the price of copper to try to save the LME from collapsing due to the idiots who kept shorting copper in the middle of a roaring bull market. They had to do something to stop the price of copper from rising or risk watching their members default. They could not obtain surplus supplies of copper which with to flood the market BECAUSE THERE ISN’T ANY! So why not attack the gold price which can be done by mobilizing Central Bank gold supplies and using that extra supply to temporary knock the floor out from under the gold market. Then you sit back and watch the financial press and the same old top callers in gold make the case that the commodity boom was over sending the speculators who were wining the battle heading to the hills in a mass selling panic of commodities across the board. Voila - Mission Accomplished!”
Gold goes down the week that the holder of the world biggest short position at Comex and Tocom sends their CEO to be Treasury Secretary.
Paulson was formerly manager of Goldman Sachs commodities trading division. Foolish of anyone to try and find some corollary there. huh?
I know you're right but in thinking about this earlier it seems that we are proping up the world's economies by buying all their stuff (manufactured goods)...we are voracious consumers and we trade in dollars, trillions of dollars. We have outsourced enough labor and low management jobs that we now contribute a fair amount to the technological advancement and the education level of what were once hopeless masses, India in particular, and we pay in dollars. Unless that situation changes, people may hate the dollar but they have to have them to stay alive or grow. When we give our friends their international federal aid/dole, we pay in dollars. I do feel that we are providing so much fuel to the international engine with our USD's that it would be very interesting to see what would possibly replace it. I mean, can you imagine sending Botswana 5 mil. Euros from the US Federal Reserve, or Israel 20 mil. Euros from the citizens of the US, or Chase Bank/Microsoft/etc sending 40 mil Euros for call center work...nah, ain't gonna happen.
When it comes down to how things are going to go, it's always about the money...and right now the USD is growing the whole world (JMHO) and we're shipping those dollars out of here as fast as we can make them. It may be fiat currency, it may not be backed by gold, but it sure does spend good, most anywhere. I don't see any great pressure to go to the Euro...lots of people talk about it but it just isn't happening.
Good opinions here though, good posts, and excellent progonistactory material for consideration.
Credit Card Companies appear to be creating fiat money
above and beyond the printing presses of the Fed. This
money creation is unbacked and in effect enslaves generations
of people in a high interest debt that is not intended to ever be
paid back.Since the credit card is spent for consumables, there is
no residual value for the assumed debt.
Investment houses, banks , Central Banks and users of precious metals are all
playing a shell game .Selling and buying futures in precious metals that are so far
in excess of any supply of actual , physical precious metals to back the paper contract.
Untold trillions of dollars in derivatives are being traded that form the security of the largest
financial institutions in the world. When the con game of musical chaires ends, then these pieces
of paper, which are totally unregulated and beyond any measure of reality shall collapse. Can you
imagine what will happen when these supposed asset foundations fail. Hundres of trillions of dollars
shall vanish from the face of the earth.
In order to keep the con game running, liquidity has been created on a world wide basis. We have fed
the animal of consumerism untill eventually, it will begin to consume its own body. It can no longer be corrected
by either Party, or any Government and all anyone can do is try to extend the game as long as possible
before melt down. It is humerous, when people show concern with the Federal Debt of 6 trillion dollars,
when the true unfunded liability of all vested programs in the USA, is probably 100 trillion dollars.
The total of all debt and fiat money created by unbacked credit cards, derivatives probably totals in excess
of 1000 trillion dollars.It a number so vast, so unmanageable as to eventually doom the worlds current economic
system. The beast that so many religious tomes refer to, is not a living creature, but rather it is the system of
empty wealth and the computors that have made the game capable of such huge sums of poker chips.
Camelot
Where will this money to pay the interest on the debt come from? Taxes?? Reserves?? or will they just create it?>>
What no one is saying is the fact the U.S. has been doing this for YEARS, but today, they are issuing bonds at LOWER rates to borrow money. Just like so many have saved money by refinancing their homes at 5% vs. 12% or 17% (1976). Treasuries that were paying the HIGH rates - are gone. The gov is borrowing money at 50% savings (or greater) the rate they used to have to pay.
TODAY - Gold is simply a supply vs. demand with GREAT speculation. It is NOT playing as a hedge against inflation.
Remember, the FED RATE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OR EFFECT THE U.S. BORROWING RATES OF THE TREASURIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take for example the 30-year. It TRADES, just like a stock. If there are more buyers than sellers, the rate will go down and vise versa. The FED FUNDS RATE is the rate the fed lends money to its HIGHEST member banks, ON A DAILY BASIS. 30 years vs. a day, are completely different ballgames.
Exactly. What is really interesting is that I can the Govt can borrow money for 30ys at virtually the same rate at which it lends money to banks overnight. Who said the FED was stupid?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hogwash.
Long Term Trends are "trends" until broken. The 5 yr trend in gold is still well intact. It would have been just as silly to say in 1998 or 1999 that the move in Stocks was over after a one week correction. You go with the major trend until the long term moving averages are busted wide open. There have been NO such signs in the price of gold. Not one weak link, no continued strength in the dollar, no drop of inflationary pressures, no removal of excess liquidity from the frothy world markets, etc. to change the overall trend at this time. Changing the head of a treasury is not an economic change.
Yes, Goldman Sachs is in bed with the Fed and Treasury. The Exchange Stabilization Fund works some of their magic via GS and other luminaries.
roadrunner
Gold hit a 26-year high of $732 an ounce on May 12. Gold has dropped 11% since then. Gold has not yet been able to cross the high of $ 830 mark it hit in 1988.
Central bank of US in particular has been seen as the primary mover in suppressing the gold price by lending the gold for trading without accounting for it. However, there have been no concrete proofs in this regard.
The paper, “Treatment of Gold Swaps and Gold Deposits (Loans),” written by Hidetoshi Takeda of the IMF’s Statistics Department and published in April acknowledges at length the potential for double-counting central bank gold under current IMF rules and suggests rules to prevent it.
The research paper commissioned by the IMF appears to confirm the US based Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA) Committee’s longstanding complaint that the IMF has had been active on this front.
Responding to the research paper, GATA consultant Andrew Hepburn, who discovered the double-counting of leased and swapped gold at several IMF-member central banks, remarked that even in arranging to correct the gold deposit books of its members, the IMF still would allow them to be less than forthright.
Mr Hepburn noted IMF guidelines maintaining that “to qualify as reserve assets, gold deposits must be available upon demand to the monetary authorities.” But, Mr Hepburn added, central banks have lent so much gold to suppress its price and make it less competitive as a currency that their gold loans now far exceed annual gold mine production, and so the loaned gold cannot practically be repaid “upon demand.” Recovering the central banks’ loaned gold without exploding the gold market would take years.
In any case, the IMF’s acknowledgement of the double counting of loaned or swapped central bank gold is more evidence of central bank intervention in the gold market, Chris Powell, secretary/treasurer, GATA said in his dispatch.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Could it be that Goldman Sachs has hammered it down enough that they can start covering their short positions? Maybe their boy in the Treasury has informed them that the 2 carrier groups heading for the Gulf aren't going there for exercise.
<< <i>$300 gold is just as likely as gold continuing an upward trend?
Hogwash. >>
Context for my post was "within a 7 year timeframe." Within such a long timeframe, the price could go anywhere. There's no trend that matters.
Robert A. Heinlein
Bear made a very concise and thoughtful post of the current economic situation we face. Derivatives are unregulated bets...not much different than betting on a horse race. At least there someone gets some money. The bets on derivatives have no money behind them. And the guy that loses probably won't be able to pay up....hence US Govt to the rescue as in LTCM, Refco, and other "tiny" blowups that rocked the system. Wait until a big blowup like a JPM, GS, GM, Fannie, etc. that can really send out a jolt than cannot be "covered."
roadrunner
<< <i>
Remember, the FED RATE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OR EFFECT THE U.S. BORROWING RATES OF THE TREASURIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take for example the 30-year. It TRADES, just like a stock. If there are more buyers than sellers, the rate will go down and vise versa. The FED FUNDS RATE is the rate the fed lends money to its HIGHEST member banks, ON A DAILY BASIS. 30 years vs. a day, are completely different ballgames. >>
Right, the only people that Bernanke is screwing, a Bush appointee, are the American people. It's not bad enough that we're paying outrageous prices for energy (basically a tax) and have LESS disposable income, but with the Fed raising rates, the American people have to pay more in interest, from Credit cards to Car loans.
Soon the voracious consumers are going to stop consuming. With no jobs available, (outsourcing), and wages stagnant, (work visas) it's only a matter of time.
I think they need to stop raising rates.
Does he think that he can stop the price of oil, gold or copper from going up, by raising interest rates for Americans??? This guy is living in the past, when America was strong. It's a GLOBAL economy now and raising rate isn’t' going to stop anything in China, India, Russia, etc. It's only going to screw the American people.
As for the Dollar, yes we send our dollars everywhere. The problem is that it keeps losing VALUE. China wants to buy stuff from Europe or oil for Saudi Arabia with all the American dollars they have, but guess what, it's only worth .75 euros’. Before it was 1 for 1. What will a U.S. dollar be worth tomorrow, 50 cent Euro?? Basically, China is getting the shaft and they are losing a TON of money by having to deal in U.S. Dollars.
So they buy GOLD.
<< <i>JD, a 7 year time frame at this point for me, is just too far out to speculate on. I'm worried about the next 6 months to 2 years for the time being. A 7 year time frame could well be the end of gold on this cycle, or maybe not. At the end of the run it will be time to seek out whatever stocks have been beating down badly. >>
Why did you call hogwash then? We appear to agree. My comment was specifically in response to a previous post saying that a $1,000/oz price was realistic within a 7 year time frame, to which I responded that a $300 price point was just as likely. What's your issue with that?
Robert A. Heinlein
Right now, metals are moving together with the stock markets. That is not a regular or expected occurrance. I use this single observation to demonstrate how metals are reacting and not suggesting a causal relationship with the stock markets. Clearly, there are others.
My only take on the whole situation is that when I see the shysters on TV hawking gold, I get out. I may have been premature, but it is a very strong signal to me. For example, if someone begins to push rare coins as an investment, I would move to the sidelines there as well.
Just MHO on all of this craziness.
PS, I also agree with most of Bear's comments, he is a wise old bear!
The entire world is raising interest rates to combat inflationary pressures. I feel like going into a major rant, but I am too busy and I feel a rational discussion would fall on deaf ears.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Go ahead...it won't be the first time anybody has unloaded in this thread.
<< <i>"I feel like going into a major rant, but I am too busy and I feel a rational discussion would fall on deaf ears."
Go ahead...it won't be the first time anybody has unloaded in this thread. >>
LOL
If the market werent so darn volatile today, I would love to do a quick ECON 101 lesson.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
“My only take on the whole situation is that when I see the shysters on TV hawking gold, I get out.”
Deepcoin,
Do you feel that way about the stocks that are hawked everyday 5 days a week?
TheStreet.com Senior Writer
6/7/2006 7:51 AM EDT
The backdating scandal has put stock options under the microscope again. But in their focus on how executives gamed the system to get bigger payouts, investors may be missing the big picture.
What may be more disturbing is what executives have done with options right out in the open -- without bending or breaking any rules.
At a number of companies, that form of dilution -- actual as opposed to possible dilution -- amounts to sizable portions of their outstanding share count. At Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq -, for instance, employees and executives have exercised 430 million options from 1997 through the first quarter of this year.
And it's not just Yahoo!. Options exercised since 1998 represent about 27% of what Broadcom's share count would be if not for stock buybacks. At Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq - the figure since 1996 is 20%. For eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - 16%, going back to 1999. For Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - since 1992, about 14%.
Without the weight of all those optioned shares holding it down, Yahoo's stock would be trading about 35% higher today than it is today.
Last year, for instance, the average eBay employee made about $65,000 just from exercising options.
Exercised options also represent a massive transfer of wealth from shareholders to corporate insiders. In 2005 alone, for instance, Yahoo! employees and executives gained an estimated $1.1 billion from exercising options,
"Why would any responsible money manager ever buy these stocks [when] the employees are making more money than the company?" asks Albert Meyer, an investment advisor at Bastiat Capital. "You can't run a business over a long period of time on that basis."
Gold is SPECULATION (today).
The U.S. dollar will "quietly" turn stronger vs. the Euro and the Yen. Interest rates are STILL very low, and Inflation could only be a problem with heated GROWTH. Times are NOT bad.
I say quietly because the liberal negative press will NOT report anything positive, so as not to lose its audience.
1. Realizing the current state of consumption of "building supplies" world wide, considering particularly China and India, what mix or package of commodities would be best for the "interested investors"? Building supplies=commodities...If one were so disposed as to purchase these supplies, what individual component commodities would a prudent investor be owning/looking at in the next 3-5 year period?
2. Where would a buy and hold for the term guy get convenient access to a recommended commodity such as...how can you buy physical copper, can you buy timber, what about corn? Does one get shares, physical ownership/storage, participate in a pool account? How does the regular guy get a play in commodities futures without either being foolish or leaving a lot of paper out in the public domain?
The source of this question is that if sustained (3-5 years) international infrastructure/housing growth is going to be so vigorous, then there must certainly be some things that have to happen. There must be commodities that are not particularly cyclical but are necessary for international growth. There must be commodities that are in marginal supply during what appears to be a sustained upcurve in international development. What are they, where do you get them?
Any opinions?
<< <i> Gold is SPECULATION (today). >>
Pro stocks: while I like the drags I nearly had to laugh my arse off yesterday as I sat through a 401K seminar put on buy our company's brokerage. Their sole solution to retirement? Looky here:
93% stocks, 7 % bonds if your retire in 2045
92%/8% if your retire in 2040
etc.
90%/10% if you retire in 2015
67%/33% if you retire in 2010. Well they certainly reduce the risk when you are 4 years away from retiring (lol)
This is certainly a safe way for the brokerage to make money. But to think stocks are 90% the place to be in all their very basic value/growth funds is ludicrous. 90%???? These guys don't even offer us a single commodity or natural resource fund of any kind.
Pro-stock? You bet. These guys are all in bed together with the govt and corporations to take as much of your money as they can get.
When I ran this by our company's director of retirement plans they said that they could not seeing having an option for natural resources considering this is only a "hot sector." What they meant was that is was heading to burnout and is speculative (unlike standard tried and true stocks)...even if "hot" for 5 years so far that's not of concern. Since 401k plans have really never seen a serious down DOW or S&P you have to wonder if anyone knows what happened from 1966 to 1982. The brokerages "expect" us to weather those "brief" 15 year down cycles because 15% gains per year are coming again...right after them.
roadrunner
Remember the "It's only a loss, if you sell" line? I actually knew people who believed that. The market taught them otherwise....
But I admit, if I were a financial planner I would tell everyone to buy and hold. That way I'd never have to research anything, never gather any tax records, and never worry about people calling and bothering me. Just collect my annual fee, and put "Don't sell" on my voice mail!
The Deutsche Bank tracking index has base weights of 35% crude oil, 20% heating oil, 12.5% aluminum, 10% gold, and 11.25% each in corn and wheat. The index is rebalanced each November.
Short-term Treasury bills provide collateral for the futures. The fixed-income portion of the portfolio generates yield, which could be used to offset the ETF's fees.
The ETF will roll the two energy futures on a monthly basis, and the remainder annually. Other less-liquid commodities such as coffee, sugar and livestock aren't included in the index.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I am at 90% stock, and 10% bond RIGHT NOW, with well, say responsible for multi millions under management and two large pension funds. I dont care if you retire today, or 20 years from now. 90-10. should be 100-0.
Here are my returns (average) from 2000. Yes , I want you to see the NEGATIVE years also. (Of course I had BOOM years, 1995-1999):
2000 +6.71%
2001 -1.12
2002 -12.12
2003 +30.67
2004 +17.71
2005 +18.81 (I'll explain why 2005 so high, when index averages were no where near)
2006 so for 5.65% return. WAS WAY BETTER, but dragged down because of my favorite fund (Valueline) not performing (so far) like last year: Have made some allocation changes since mid May, that tried to preserve a 11% gain for the year ( I strive to get 8% or higher for the year). Didnt preserve enough.
Allocation currently:
Fund ************** Percent allocation ****** return YTD as of tonight
SP500 Index************* 10 *************** 0.67
LT Bond Index (Mellon) * 10 ************** - 1.28
Int'l Index **************** 20 **************** 6.41
Small Cap index ******** 10 **************** 4.64
Valueline 25 (favorite) ** 20 ************** -10.29 (It was 30% allocation last year - up 37.04%. AAPL 25% holding as of today)
Dow 10/SP 15 ********** 10 **************** 6.41
Aim Real Estate Fund ** 10 *************** 11.61 (was 20% allocation 6/2/06)
Mellon Oil/Gas ********** 10 *************** 5.10 (Obvious fund. Was big winner last year. I may drop it soon)
These are the allocations for my retirees also, most withdrawing about 6-7% a year to live off of. Not many complaints on the returns.
Why am I sharing this?? Plenty of areas to make money. I had 0% in any commodity/gold fund. Will not TOUCH it today.
Don't miss it a bit. Neither do my happy retirees, and union workers under the pension, who dont' even know what I am doing!!!.
But the U.S. is falling apart, right???? I started my career in this field 1989. Have heard all the negativity...
Every year.
PS. Maybe I am "risky" but the correct word is trying to generate the greatest return vs. the least amount of risk. NEVER have I been higher than 25% in bonds and cash. 10-year average is 12.55%. I don't know a retire that wouldn't take that.
Thanks Lloyd for sharing your info. As a comparison here is mine. These are over the same last six years. I put the allocations first.
Central Texas Real-estate, appreciation plus rents for the six year period + 72%
Numismatic coins, mostly Bust halve dollars and Type over six years + 130%
Cash in C.D.’s average over six years + 19% currently 5%
Gold over six years +100
Silver over six years +200%
Total 521%
Average
2000 + 86.8%
2001 + 86.8
2002 +86.8
2003 + 86.8
2004 +86.8
2005 +86.8
I try to keep my allocations on each investment as close as possible, and pay for real-estate as it is purchased or shortly thereafter.
If the real-estate were leveraged these rates of return would have been much greater.
The really big difference here, besides the rates of return, are that I have complete control over my assets.
They are not subject to commissions, management fees, dilution by management, manipulation by insiders or wall street, etc.
Of course the gold and silver are still subject to manipulation as we constantly see, but then so is the stock market. Personally I feel in the next few years that will end as the worlds gold and silver supplies become dispersed worldwide to places like the middle east, china, India etc., and get beyond the control of western central bankers.
LIke cohodk, I'm also in DBC.
RR
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Average
2000 + 86.8%
2001 + 86.8
2002 +86.8
2003 + 86.8
2004 +86.8
2005 +86.8 >>
If these numbers are correct, you've done very well for yourself.
According to your gains you've turned $100,000.00 into $4,248,630.00 thats a 40+ bagger in 6 yrs.
Or are your numbers wrong?
Text
If you averaged 86.8% gains per year as Elwood brought up, your total increase would be far higher than 511%.
I should add that these are rough, you would have to break out the allocations to each investment to get a true picture of returns.
I'm impressed by GoldSaint's returns - who wouldn't... He calculated wrong the CAGR equivalent to his 6-yr return, but someone who achieves 35.5% returns consistently has my respect nonetheless. I'd be interested in seeing the year to year fluctuations, because you can't look at returns in isolation. I suspect there's much more risk in his portfolio than he thinks.
I'm curious whether the returns included all the associated costs - maintenance of the real estate, transaction costs for the coins including travel to shows (or at least the portion of those costs attributable to the coins included in the investment), tax liability on each profitable sale, etc.
Robert A. Heinlein
Reals estate from 1999 to 2006 + 280%
Gold and silver bought 09/05 + 65%
Gem Fractional Currency Bought 2004, sold May 2006 +130%
Company stock acquired 2003 through 2006 - 20%
No bonds
I think Ill stick with what I can hold in my hand.
<< <i>Central Texas Real-estate, appreciation plus rents for the six year period + 72%
Numismatic coins, mostly Bust halve dollars and Type over six years + 130%
Cash in C.D.’s average over six years + 19% currently 5%
Gold over six years +100
Silver over six years +200%
Total 521% >>
Did you just add up those % to get to 521? if so that's completly incorrect. Assuming you have the same amount in each (and that you have rebalanced consistently, which is unlikely), then your return over 6 years is 521% / 5 = 104%. Compounded annually that's 12.65% on average per year - nothing to spit at but not exactly unheard of, especially when considering all the other issues I mentionned previously (risk, and whether you really factored in all your associated costs).
Robert A. Heinlein
My IRA is 100% equities, however it is only invested for a total of about 2 months a year. I usually buy one day and sell within hours to a week. Then I sit in cash. I hate holding overnight. I have averaged 22.3% since Jan 2001.
My trading account is 300% invested (equities, etfs only) at times, but never overnight. My returns are quite high, but so is my blood pressure.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear