Nice read on Jim Sinclair's website today. I read buy I'm afraid to agree with him but he's been right on all the way up.
Posted On: Tuesday, April 18, 2006, 7:38:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs
It is no surprise to see gold in the $620s. The magnet at $612 had the ability to slingshot gold into the $625 - $630 range. Right now we have two items functioning in the gold price. The first is $682 pulling and the other is $612 restraining. If it was not for the following, $630 would be my target:
Nine days until Iran becomes a full fledged member of the Nuclear Club. This is an opinion of a noted non-governmental US authority and seems to be accepted by everyone except the Pentagon. Even if no one attacks, nine days from now the entire political makeup of the Middle East will have changed, putting Iran as the sun of that universe. This is not the best news for the West and is intolerable for Israel.
The numbers in gold are now $682 and $887.50 followed by $1650. Looking for lows in reactions is much better than top calling, which is already starting again. I would think these skunks would crawl back to where they came from having made such public fools of themselves.
There is a strong possibility that Payday is here and now!
I heard gold being touted on my morning drive to work today for the first time. It seems as though the ride is going up and then when the public is fully invested, it will slide back. It will be a fun ride for a while.. but the end is near when the public starts chaseing gold and silver again.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Ok, so on to new avenues as gold and silver is such old news. What's the story on Li, Lithium? Is it even listed on the comex? Is this an up and coming mineral? Does anyone track it? Are the world commodity hunters sneaking around in the dark and cornering the market in anticipation of a 21st century boom? All these questions...
Personally, I'm thinking bismuth. Gotta be a big market there somewhere.
They say the UFO that crashed near Roswell was made of a bismuth/aluminium alloy.
*tongue firmly planted in cheek here*
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
How about titanium. It's a relatively scarcer metal and it's primary weakness is no one wants it in large quantities. A lot of industrial users need it but they just need a little.
With China raising interest rates (1st time since Oct 2004) we are seeing most metals trade aggressively lower this morn as traders speculate the rate move will curb demand for metals consumption as China tries to cool its economy a bit; June gold is off $11.70 to $630.60 and basically giving back yesterday's move higher (range is 632 to 645.60); zinc prices are seeing the worst sell-off since Feb despite inventories falling 1,950 tons on the LME; copper is off 4.5 cents on the COMEX to $3.35 a pound (worst sell-off since late Feb on the LME -- ~$225 to $7,075 a metric ton); mining names which were lower late yesterday b/c of weaker than expected PCU earnings may again fall; July silver (most heavily traded) is off 57 cents to $12.37 (range is 12.36 to 13.065).
Generic gold has taken a pounding.....straight up.
Ttown, Jim Sinclair has called most every move since gold left the station at $265. Fortunately Maurice Rosen's RNA introduced me to him in the fall of 2002. Best $48 I ever spent. Maurice should get a medal for that article. I called it my "awakening." Why most everyone continues to ignore his 40 years of experience is beyond me. I have his site listed in my sig line. A few people have let me know that they found it helpful. Here's a guy who lived the 1980 gold and silver moves and made a fortune doing it, and got out at the top. He helped to handle the dissolution of the Hunt Brother's silver hoard. At one time he was considered a strong cadidate to head the US Treasury. Fortunately for all of us that never happened or he might have become like Greenspan, who turned his back on his beliefs, joined the establishment, and took the riches. And if that had occurred, I'd have never read about him in the RNA. Today, Mr. Sinclair heads the Tan Range Corp. as CEO, a precious metals and natural resources firm in Tanzania. He is an ambassador to the PM's market willingly giving his time for nothing in return. In fact, I'm sure he loses tens of thousands per year giving his time freely to educate us dummies.
Indian type gold is insane. The $10's in 63 to 65 advance every week. I bought a 63 OGH just last weekend and thought I stretched at $1480. Now they're fetching $1650 on ebay and as high as $1750 at the Heritage CSNS sale. Needless to say I was giving them away at $1350 just 1 month ago. How far are the promoters willing to take this? 63 $10 Indians started off at $650 about a year ago! 62 and 63 $5 Indians have done nearly as well.
63 Saints now in the $775-800 range. 64 Saints briefly hit $900 last week, fell back to $875 and now forged ahead to $950. Could have bought a bunch of these just 6 weeks ago at $750-$775 when no one wanted them. 65 Saints are over $1500
$20 Libs in 63 were very buyable at $800 a month ago. Now to $1050. Who would have thought?
Yes, generic gold sure is common and what a poor "investment" this stuff "usually" makes.
And the public is hardly well informed on gold at the moment. I'd say we have less than 25% of the final public demand at this point. Most of the demand is still investment related, commercial players and hedge funds. Ask your fellow co-workers, some may know gold is at $600 but I doubt even 1 person you know outside of coins has any gold. In my family coins are somewhat familiar. Yet no one has a single gold coin other than myself. Most definitely, the guy on the street still has no clue about gold and still thinks it's a barbarous relic left back to the Middle Ages.
<< <i>Generic gold has taken a pounding.....straight up.
Indian type gold is insane. The $10's in 63 to 65 advance every week. I bought a 63 OGH just last weekend and thought I stretched at $1480. Now they're fetching $1650 on ebay and as high as $1750 at the Heritage CSNS sale. Needless to say I was giving them away at $1350 just 1 month ago. How far are the promoters willing to take this? 63 $10 Indians started off at $650 about a year ago! 62 and 63 $5 Indians have done nearly as well.
63 Saints now in the $775-800 range. 64 Saints briefly hit $900 last week, fell back to $875 and now forged ahead to $950. Could have bought a bunch of these just 6 weeks ago at $750-$775 when no one wanted them. 65 Saints are over $1500
$20 Libs in 63 were very buyable at $800 a month ago. Now to $1050. Who would have thought?
Yes, generic gold sure is common and what a poor "investment" this stuff "usually" makes.
And the public is hardly well informed on gold at the moment. I'd say we have less than 25% of the final public demand at this point. Most of the demand is still investment related, commercial players and hedge funds. Ask your fellow co-workers, some may know gold is at $600 but I doubt even 1 person you know outside of coins has any gold. In my family coins are somewhat familiar. Yet no one has a single gold coin other than myself. >>
Great perspective, Roadrunner.
*
Something that I have always found curious, is how every year the Mint makes 10s of thousands of bullion coins, which, unless I missing something, are purchased for about 20% over spot. Presumably these 'coins' are bought by investors, yes, but collectors also who must perceive some value in the high-premium they pay for these issues. If for one year these same customers decided to pay this same 20% markup over spot but instead bought historic, original, classic, 'generic' gold, it would not remain 'common' for long.
Seems like this thread has quieted down as the rising prices of gold and silver has vindicated many of the ealier predictions here. Now there seems less to discuss as the US dollar continues its slow decent.
Very telling:
Canada $ to US $. $1.1167 to $1. Euro .7915 to $1.
Many of us are just hiding in the bushes waiting for one of these big hatchets to fall out of the sky. Much that has been discussed here is happing, but we have yet to see one of all-important National problems begin to collapse our system.
My opinion is that although slow to react, Americans are finally seeing that these great experiments in Globalization, Socialism, and providing security for the entire planet are all failures that are leading us straight to ruination.
In America currently, tradable goods imports now account for a record 37% of US expenditures on all goods.
US consumption is currently holding at a record 71% of US GDP and rising.
The baby boomers entitlements will bankrupt the country for two generations.
We have spent, and continue to spend trillions of dollars, trying to make the world a safe place for all others to live in. Defending various peoples around the world from neighborhood battles that have gone on for centuries.
Those in power that forced down our throats the idea that we could have a peaceful global economy where all Nations played by a fair set of rules where so naive that can now be easily labeled fools. Japan, China, and most of Asia have grown strong on the backs of America’s technology and trade. India will take what is left of our “service economy” and Americas savings rate has gone to nothing due to these policies, and the tax burdens levied on us from every sector of government.
In addition to all of that we are now totally dependent of foreign nations that would love to see our destruction for our energy policy, and are in danger of becoming Mexico North, as each decade we give amnesty to millions of people that just walk across our borders.
If we would only start planting jungles here, in a couple of decades we could become a real banana republic.
<< <i>The baby boomers entitlements will bankrupt the country for two generations. >>
No, I don't think so. I don't think the real danger here is economic. Economic trouble, probably disaster, possibly collapse, is on the horizon, I have no doubt, but I remember that Germany's economy was complete destoryed after WWI, and yet Germany emerged the strongest power in Europe not many years later.
The paper money may vanish, but as those in this thread know well, it's just paper. The real resources we have, and most of all the people who are capable of creating wealth, remain, no matter what the paper does.
The problem, as I believe F.A. Hayek pointed out, is the 1929 is always followed by 1939.
The danger I see is not economic collapse, but the political dangers that will follow that collapse. The sun will set on democracy, and God knows what will come next.
Two quotations to ponder, again from Hayek:
“It should never be forgotten that the one decisive factor of the rise of totalitarianism on the Continent, which is yet absent in England and America, is the existence of a large recently dispossessed middle class.”
“The one thing modern democracy will not bear without cracking is the necessity of a substantial lowering of the standards of living in peacetime, or even prolonged stationariness of its economic condition.”
No doubt you are right, most baby boom entitlements simply may not be paid!
We are in for some serious changes soon, and many will not like what comes down, I laugh when people are so panic stricken over $3.00 gas, just wait till its $7.00.
Until we have term limits for all U.S. congress people, and Senators, along with a new America First Isolationist policy, nothing will change and potential disasters will build all around us.
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Citgo Petroleum Corp., the U.S. subsidiary of Venezuela's state oil company, said it will sell its asphalt plants in New Jersey and Georgia, the second sale announced this year as relations between the two countries sour.
``If Chavez puts the rest of Citgo's refineries up for sale, he's telegraphing that he's going to cut the U.S. off from oil,'' said James Williams, an analyst with WTRG Energy Economics in London, Arkansas. ``I would anticipate seeing all the refineries up for sale by the end of the year if he is indeed thinking about that.''
<< <i>Interesting how USA 2006 looks so much like Rome, AD 206.
Rome gave amnesty to the northerners streaming in from the Germanic tribes and they progressively changed the classic Romanic culture. >>
While the analogy is not quite the same, it would not be so bad. The Western Roman Empire lasted another several hundred years. The Eastern Empire lasted until the 15th century. Add to the fact that all of us of European stock are the decendents of those barbarian tribes - we did OK.
"We are in for some serious changes soon, and many will not like what comes down, I laugh when people are so panic stricken over $3.00 gas, just wait till its $7.00."
The US general public perceives is taking a serious hit on gas prices. $3 is an outright gift! Just wait a little longer and prices will cruise past $5 and then maybe we can postulate where it may level off. There are going to be some interesting economic "adjustments" in the near future. I can't say what will come next and I know everybody has a theory but $5+ gas and another 1/4 point on the prime lending rate (read ARM) and we are going to see the beginning of whatever comes next. Shouldn't take too much longer...meanwhile, the stock market is attacking it's 2000 high as we debate.
Reminds me of an old Hunter S. Thompson quote..."When the goin' gets weird, the wierd turn pro."
So, who won...the silver freaks or the goldbugs? Since one has to buy many of oz. Sil to make only a few oz. in value of Gld, who made out in terms of total profit/$ spent?
For the second round question: Who do you think is smilin' the most , Silver freaks or Goldbugs?
Tie Breaker: Since everybody (Sil/Gld) was correct except the Don't betters, at what point is the run considered a win for either...who crossed the win line first, the Silfrks or Gldbgs?
Interesting side fact...The original title for this thread has been maintained. Many serpentine twists in the posts have been driving the direction of this thread, from political points to foreign situations to mind numbing charts and graphs, not to discount the many astute article links that have been offered. At this point, some 3000 posts later, we are still at GOLD AND SILVER WORLD NEWS...hummmmmmmmmmm
<< <i>So, who won...the silver freaks or the goldbugs? Since one has to buy many of oz. Sil to make only a few oz. in value of Gld, who made out in terms of total profit/$ spent? >>
I moved an IRA into Gold and silver in Sept. The gold was 462oz including premium and silver was 736 a bar.
currently the gold is up 47% and the silver is up 90%
I also bought stock in some junior exploration companies and some of them are up 300%
“Interesting side fact...The original title for this thread has been maintained.”
I think we are still on target with our thread, and in fact, the financial world has become more dangerous in the last two years, with explosive potentials like the one below. This new article has been the favorite target of RR during this entire thread.
More than ever before the potential for a paper melt down exists regardless of what the S&P and Dow are doing in trying to reach their highs of 7 years ago. The greed and insanity of the Central Banks, commercial bankers, government, and Wall Street paper pushers, put at risk the financial fortunes of common citizens each day.
All of these hundreds of Trillions of paper assets are simply unsustainable, and anyone that is not securing hard assets, and keeping them under their close personal control, is just not staying informed.
In one recent study it was estimated that only one person in 1,000 in the U.S. owned any Gold or Silver, or even new anything about those markets. Yes the public is starting to come into this market, and one would think that with communication the way it is today there would be a flood to safer assets, but this has not been the case.
Unlike the markets of yester years where an investor could watch a slow grinding change occur, today’s financial, and capital markets, could totally collapse in a matter of hours.
WSJ MAY 6th 2006 On the eve of Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting this weekend, it is worth remembering that, three years ago, Warren Buffett warned that the global financial system was held hostage to ticking "time bombs" and at risk of a "megacatastrophe." He was talking about financial derivatives: the options, swaps, forwards and more-exotic investment tools that have blossomed into a $270-trillion global market. He warned they had created a "daisy chain risk," that one Long Term Capital Management-style pratfall would topple the whole global house of cards.
First, let me start off with an easy question: What do Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett, PIMCO Managing Director William Gross, New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner, and Goldman Sachs managing director Gerald Corrigan have in common?
Answer: They are all knowledgeable and well-respected individuals who have warned about the structural deficiencies and systemic risks associated with the burgeoning market for over-the-counter derivatives.
The idea that Wall Street now has the skills, experience, and emotional resolve to cope with anything that might crop up also fails to take account of reality. Emotions such as fear and greed haven't gone away, and the likely response to the next crisis will be the same as always. People will panic, liquidity will evaporate, and fear will run rampant.
The difference this time, though, as opposed to when LTCM imploded, is that it will be very difficult for the New York Fed chief to gather myriad global financial operators into a room and "persuade" them to pony up the billions -- or perhaps the trillions -- necessary to stabilize the situation.
Do you really believe that if a derivatives bomb is unleashed by the failure of a London-based hedge fund, a banker in the Cayman Islands, an investor in Japan, an insurer in Germany, and a regulator in France will feel similarly inclined to respond, or even to take the lead in resolving a crisis -- assuming, of course, they even realize what is going on or why it may be relevant to their own interests?
Finally and perhaps most importantly, there are key differences between then and now. For one thing, the absolute level of risk has reached hitherto unseen levels. Total U.S. debt, for example, is more than three times output, the U.S. current account deficit is 7% of gross domestic product, unfunded U.S. retirement-related obligations add up to more than $50 trillion, and the notional value of derivatives outstanding is approaching the $300 trillion mark.
At the end of last year, the top five banks accounted for more than 96% of outstanding derivatives contracts versus 83% in 1998. And reportedly, there are more than $200 billion of credit default swaps riding on the financial health of General Motors alone.
No worries the leaders of tomorrow will solve all our problems?
Can you say dumb as a bucket of hair?
Well at least they won’t know what is happening to them, just so the game boys continue to work, that is the main thing right?
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Young Americans know little about world geography, with the majority unable to locate Iraq on a map and three quarters unable to find Indonesia, according to a study.
The Roper poll conducted on behalf of National Geographic found that most of the young adults questioned between the ages of 18 and 24 also had little knowledge about their own country, with half or fewer unable to identify the states of New York or Ohio on a map.
The survey results showed said that despite nearly constant news coverage since the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003, 63 percent of respondents could not find Iraq on a map and 75 percent could not find Israel or Iran. Nine in 10 also could not find Afghanistan on a map of Asia and 70 percent could not find North Korea.
A third or more of those questioned also could not find the states of Louisiana or Mississippi on a US map despite massive media coverage of the 2005 hurricanes that devastated these states.
National Geographic released the survey Tuesday in launching a five-year campaign to improve geographic literacy among young people in the United States.
Derivatives = Finanical weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Hints from www.jsmineset.com is that the REFCO blowup that occurred in September was very possibly derivatives related. Many states, municipalities, and large corporations also have substantial risk via D- Bombs through pension funds and other investments. While many derivatives are properly policed and traded, the majority are not.
On a commodities bubble Buffett: "I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.
Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."
He's not worried about derivatives because he doesn't invest in those companies that are loaded with them. At least the kind that are non-transparent. Where did you read that Buffet sold his silver? I've seen more articles to the contrary. Why would he have sold before the run up in this environment??
Derivatives are not just a corporate phenomenon. They permiate all asset classes including equities, fixed income, real estate and commodities. If they are not good for corporations, then I cannot see how they can be good for metals.
Stupid filtering software, wont let me post a link. So I will copy and paste from the CBSMarket Watch website.
Berkshire mostly avoids commodity speculation because Buffett said he's "not good at the game of figuring out how far the speculative gains will go." That means Berkshire won't make as much money as other investors who stay on until "the final 30 days or weeks of a wild orgy," he said, recalling a big investment Berkshire made in silver. Buffett said Berkshire didn't make any money on his silver investment because he "bought it very early and sold it very early. Other than that, everything I did was perfect."
Well yes this would be “SHOCKING” and it will also cost you guys hundreds of billions of dollars, thanks for the free goods!
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Li Yong, China's vice minister for finance, said he had heard a ``rumor'' that the U.S. dollar was headed for a 25 percent drop. If the gossip was true, the consequences would be ``SHOCKING,'' he said.
The unspoken message was: ``Don't try to talk the dollar down.'' And Adams knew better than to ask, ``Well, what are you going to do about it?'' The answer to that question has already begun taking shape: Asia may be getting ready to fix its currencies to a local anchor, dumping the region's unofficial dollar peg.
Even as they continue to pile up U.S. debt in their foreign- exchange reserves to keep their currencies stable against the dollar, Asian nations, China among them, are preparing for a scenario where the dollar does indeed collapse under the weight of a record U.S. current account deficit.
A New Peg Korea, Japan and China agreed in Hyderabad to ``immediately launch discussions on the road map for a system to coordinate foreign exchange policy.''
WOW Gold at $700 I guess the comment about the devaluation of the dollar by 25% really hit home. ( Silver $14.44)
WSJ May 9,2006 New International Monetary Fund data show that official currency reserves of the developing world nearly quadrupled over the past decade to $2.9 trillion last year,
"The irony is that the three countries in the world adding to reserves the fastest, and thus buying the most U.S. debt now, are China, Saudi Arabia and Russia, none of them democracies,"
Even well short of open conflict with the U.S., developing countries are showing less of a taste for holding dollars. IMF statistics show that developed countries have remained remarkably reliant on the greenback, which still accounted for 74% of their overall reserves in 2005. Yet developing nations have reduced the share of their dollar holdings to 60.5% from a high of 71.1% in 1998.
One website mentioned that Buffet only said he no longer has the gold. Their suggestion was that he may have leased it.....possibly to an ETF.
If they are not good for corporations, then I cannot see how they can be good for metals.
Derivatives are good as long as no one has to perform on them in a pinch. The same is true for gold miners. But part of the run up in gold prices is because companies like Barrick were/are heavily short gold. Some have been buying all the way up to reduce their bleeding hedged positions. They were losing money > $350/oz. You can only imagine what it must feel like now at $700! Imagine the pain of JPMorgan and other banks who have shorted gold on the way up. A number of junior gold miners have staked their entire companies via derivatives. Eventually those juniors will go bust and the parent (loaner) will swallow them up. And gold will march on with one less company.
<< <i>One website mentioned that Buffet only said he no longer has the gold. Their suggestion was that he may have leased it.....possibly to an ETF.
If they are not good for corporations, then I cannot see how they can be good for metals.
Derivatives are good as long as no one has to perform on them in a pinch. The same is true for gold miners. But part of the run up in gold prices is because companies like Barrick were/are heavily short gold. Some have been buying all the way up to reduce their bleeding hedged positions. They were losing money > $350/oz. You can only imagine what it must feel like now at $700! Imagine the pain of JPMorgan and other banks who have shorted gold on the way up. A number of junior gold miners have staked their entire companies via derivatives. Eventually those juniors will go bust and the parent (loaner) will swallow them up. And gold will march on with one less company.
roadrunner >>
Why do the miners have to "buy back"? Cant they just produce more or buy an unhedged company like Barrick did with Placer?
True, they could produce more, but that takes infrastructure and time. Buying up a smaller unhedged company can be part of the solution as well. But the stinker derivatives with the parent still exist. It basically makes the whole company less of a value.
Comments
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Posted On: Tuesday, April 18, 2006, 7:38:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs
It is no surprise to see gold in the $620s. The magnet at $612 had the ability to slingshot gold into the $625 - $630 range. Right now we have two items functioning in the gold price. The first is $682 pulling and the other is $612 restraining. If it was not for the following, $630 would be my target:
Nine days until Iran becomes a full fledged member of the Nuclear Club. This is an opinion of a noted non-governmental US authority and seems to be accepted by everyone except the Pentagon. Even if no one attacks, nine days from now the entire political makeup of the Middle East will have changed, putting Iran as the sun of that universe. This is not the best news for the West and is intolerable for Israel.
The numbers in gold are now $682 and $887.50 followed by $1650. Looking for lows in reactions is much better than top calling, which is already starting again. I would think these skunks would crawl back to where they came from having made such public fools of themselves.
There is a strong possibility that Payday is here and now!
I am sorry but I do not quite understand that comment. What is he saying? Yes ...its a dumb question
Is there a chance for ASE to get killed by the US mint. ASEs are produced (by law) from silver mined in this country only.
Someone told me a while back that I wouldn't see $13 silver. They were right, I blinked and missed it.
Personally, I'm thinking bismuth. Gotta be a big market there somewhere.
They say the UFO that crashed near Roswell was made of a bismuth/aluminium alloy.
*tongue firmly planted in cheek here*
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
wants it in large quantities. A lot of industrial users need it but they just need a little.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Robert A. Heinlein
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Ttown, Jim Sinclair has called most every move since gold left the station at $265. Fortunately Maurice Rosen's RNA introduced me to him in the fall of 2002. Best $48 I ever spent. Maurice should get a medal for that article. I called it my "awakening." Why most everyone continues to ignore his 40 years of experience is beyond me. I have his site listed in my sig line. A few people have let me know that they found it helpful. Here's a guy who lived the 1980 gold and silver moves and made a fortune doing it, and got out at the top. He helped to handle the dissolution of the Hunt Brother's silver hoard. At one time he was considered a strong cadidate to head the US Treasury. Fortunately for all of us that never happened or he might have become like Greenspan, who turned his back on his beliefs, joined the establishment, and took the riches.
And if that had occurred, I'd have never read about him in the RNA.
Today, Mr. Sinclair heads the Tan Range Corp. as CEO, a precious metals and natural resources firm in Tanzania. He is an ambassador to the PM's market willingly giving his time for nothing in return. In fact, I'm sure he loses tens of thousands per year giving his time freely to educate us dummies.
Indian type gold is insane. The $10's in 63 to 65 advance every week. I bought a 63 OGH just last weekend and thought I stretched at $1480. Now they're fetching $1650 on ebay and as high as $1750 at the Heritage CSNS sale. Needless to say I was giving them away at $1350 just 1 month ago. How far are the promoters willing to take this? 63 $10 Indians started off at $650 about a year ago! 62 and 63 $5 Indians have done nearly as well.
63 Saints now in the $775-800 range.
64 Saints briefly hit $900 last week, fell back to $875 and now forged ahead to $950. Could have bought a bunch of these just
6 weeks ago at $750-$775 when no one wanted them.
65 Saints are over $1500
$20 Libs in 63 were very buyable at $800 a month ago. Now to $1050. Who would have thought?
Yes, generic gold sure is common and what a poor "investment" this stuff "usually" makes.
And the public is hardly well informed on gold at the moment. I'd say we have less than 25% of the final public demand at this point.
Most of the demand is still investment related, commercial players and hedge funds. Ask your fellow co-workers, some may know gold is at $600 but I doubt even 1 person you know outside of coins has any gold. In my family coins are somewhat familiar. Yet no one has a single gold coin other than myself. Most definitely, the guy on the street still has no clue about gold and still thinks it's a barbarous relic left back to the Middle Ages.
roadrunner
<< <i>Generic gold has taken a pounding.....straight up.
Indian type gold is insane. The $10's in 63 to 65 advance every week. I bought a 63 OGH just last weekend and thought I stretched at $1480. Now they're fetching $1650 on ebay and as high as $1750 at the Heritage CSNS sale. Needless to say I was giving them away at $1350 just 1 month ago. How far are the promoters willing to take this? 63 $10 Indians started off at $650 about a year ago! 62 and 63 $5 Indians have done nearly as well.
63 Saints now in the $775-800 range.
64 Saints briefly hit $900 last week, fell back to $875 and now forged ahead to $950. Could have bought a bunch of these just
6 weeks ago at $750-$775 when no one wanted them.
65 Saints are over $1500
$20 Libs in 63 were very buyable at $800 a month ago. Now to $1050. Who would have thought?
Yes, generic gold sure is common and what a poor "investment" this stuff "usually" makes.
And the public is hardly well informed on gold at the moment. I'd say we have less than 25% of the final public demand at this point.
Most of the demand is still investment related, commercial players and hedge funds. Ask your fellow co-workers, some may know gold is at $600 but I doubt even 1 person you know outside of coins has any gold. In my family coins are somewhat familiar. Yet no one has a single gold coin other than myself. >>
Great perspective, Roadrunner.
*
Something that I have always found curious, is how every year the Mint makes 10s of thousands of bullion coins, which, unless I missing something, are purchased for about 20% over spot. Presumably these 'coins' are bought by investors, yes, but collectors also who must perceive some value in the high-premium they pay for these issues. If for one year these same customers decided to pay this same 20% markup over spot but instead bought historic, original, classic, 'generic' gold, it would not remain 'common' for long.
>>>My Collection
Very telling:
Canada $ to US $. $1.1167 to $1.
Euro .7915 to $1.
The US $ is very close to a real breakdown.
Oreville,
Many of us are just hiding in the bushes waiting for one of these big hatchets to fall out of the sky. Much that has been discussed here is happing, but we have yet to see one of all-important National problems begin to collapse our system.
My opinion is that although slow to react, Americans are finally seeing that these great experiments in Globalization, Socialism, and providing security for the entire planet are all failures that are leading us straight to ruination.
In America currently, tradable goods imports now account for a record 37% of US expenditures on all goods.
US consumption is currently holding at a record 71% of US GDP and rising.
The baby boomers entitlements will bankrupt the country for two generations.
We have spent, and continue to spend trillions of dollars, trying to make the world a safe place for all others to live in. Defending various peoples around the world from neighborhood battles that have gone on for centuries.
Those in power that forced down our throats the idea that we could have a peaceful global economy where all Nations played by a fair set of rules where so naive that can now be easily labeled fools. Japan, China, and most of Asia have grown strong on the backs of America’s technology and trade. India will take what is left of our “service economy” and Americas savings rate has gone to nothing due to these policies, and the tax burdens levied on us from every sector of government.
In addition to all of that we are now totally dependent of foreign nations that would love to see our destruction for our energy policy, and are in danger of becoming Mexico North, as each decade we give amnesty to millions of people that just walk across our borders.
If we would only start planting jungles here, in a couple of decades we could become a real banana republic.
<< <i>The baby boomers entitlements will bankrupt the country for two generations. >>
No, I don't think so. I don't think the real danger here is economic. Economic trouble, probably disaster, possibly collapse, is on the horizon, I have no doubt, but I remember that Germany's economy was complete destoryed after WWI, and yet Germany emerged the strongest power in Europe not many years later.
The paper money may vanish, but as those in this thread know well, it's just paper. The real resources we have, and most of all the people who are capable of creating wealth, remain, no matter what the paper does.
The problem, as I believe F.A. Hayek pointed out, is the 1929 is always followed by 1939.
The danger I see is not economic collapse, but the political dangers that will follow that collapse. The sun will set on democracy, and God knows what will come next.
Two quotations to ponder, again from Hayek:
“It should never be forgotten that the one decisive factor of the rise of totalitarianism on the Continent, which is yet absent in England and America, is the existence of a large recently dispossessed middle class.”
“The one thing modern democracy will not bear without cracking is the necessity of a substantial lowering of the standards of living in peacetime, or even prolonged stationariness of its economic condition.”
Malikovski
No doubt you are right, most baby boom entitlements simply may not be paid!
We are in for some serious changes soon, and many will not like what comes down, I laugh when people are so panic stricken over $3.00 gas, just wait till its $7.00.
Until we have term limits for all U.S. congress people, and Senators, along with a new America First Isolationist policy, nothing will change and potential disasters will build all around us.
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Citgo Petroleum Corp., the U.S. subsidiary of Venezuela's state oil company, said it will sell its asphalt plants in New Jersey and Georgia, the second sale announced this year as relations between the two countries sour.
``If Chavez puts the rest of Citgo's refineries up for sale, he's telegraphing that he's going to cut the U.S. off from oil,'' said James Williams, an analyst with WTRG Energy Economics in London, Arkansas. ``I would anticipate seeing all the refineries up for sale by the end of the year if he is indeed thinking about that.''
Rome gave amnesty to the northerners streaming in from the Germanic tribes and they progressively changed the classic Romanic culture.
<< <i>Interesting how USA 2006 looks so much like Rome, AD 206.
Rome gave amnesty to the northerners streaming in from the Germanic tribes and they progressively changed the classic Romanic culture.
>>
While the analogy is not quite the same, it would not be so bad. The Western Roman Empire lasted another several hundred years. The Eastern Empire lasted until the 15th century. Add to the fact that all of us of European stock are the decendents of those barbarian tribes - we did OK.
There is no inflation guys !! I-Bonds have dropped from 6.73% to 2.41% yield in the last 6 months.
I-Bond
The US general public perceives is taking a serious hit on gas prices. $3 is an outright gift! Just wait a little longer and prices will cruise past $5 and then maybe we can postulate where it may level off. There are going to be some interesting economic "adjustments" in the near future. I can't say what will come next and I know everybody has a theory but $5+ gas and another 1/4 point on the prime lending rate (read ARM) and we are going to see the beginning of whatever comes next. Shouldn't take too much longer...meanwhile, the stock market is attacking it's 2000 high as we debate.
Reminds me of an old Hunter S. Thompson quote..."When the goin' gets weird, the wierd turn pro."
Thx.
<< <i>ASE's are used as international trade units >>
Gold / Silver were used to settle international trade when Dollar was on the gold and then the silver standard.
International trade is now settled in fiat, not gold or silver.
ASE and AGE are only for collectors and investors.
I-Bonds have dropped from 6.73% to 2.41% yield in the last 6 months.
Da-yum that is stout! With overnight yields at 4+%, they won't have to worry about printing bonds and mailing them.
An datsa fack!
Shoot, circ 20's may be about par now.
Dlr friend sez that Maples are also ..... s c a r c e......
For the second round question: Who do you think is smilin' the most , Silver freaks or Goldbugs?
Tie Breaker: Since everybody (Sil/Gld) was correct except the Don't betters, at what point is the run considered a win for either...who crossed the win line first, the Silfrks or Gldbgs?
Interesting side fact...The original title for this thread has been maintained. Many serpentine twists in the posts have been driving the direction of this thread, from political points to foreign situations to mind numbing charts and graphs, not to discount the many astute article links that have been offered. At this point, some 3000 posts later, we are still at GOLD AND SILVER WORLD NEWS...hummmmmmmmmmm
Saul Goode
<< <i>So, who won...the silver freaks or the goldbugs? Since one has to buy many of oz. Sil to make only a few oz. in value of Gld, who made out in terms of total profit/$ spent? >>
I moved an IRA into Gold and silver in Sept. The gold was 462oz including premium and silver was 736 a bar.
currently the gold is up 47% and the silver is up 90%
I also bought stock in some junior exploration companies and some of them are up 300%
“Interesting side fact...The original title for this thread has been maintained.”
I think we are still on target with our thread, and in fact, the financial world has become more dangerous in the last two years, with explosive potentials like the one below. This new article has been the favorite target of RR during this entire thread.
More than ever before the potential for a paper melt down exists regardless of what the S&P and Dow are doing in trying to reach their highs of 7 years ago. The greed and insanity of the Central Banks, commercial bankers, government, and Wall Street paper pushers, put at risk the financial fortunes of common citizens each day.
All of these hundreds of Trillions of paper assets are simply unsustainable, and anyone that is not securing hard assets, and keeping them under their close personal control, is just not staying informed.
In one recent study it was estimated that only one person in 1,000 in the U.S. owned any Gold or Silver, or even new anything about those markets. Yes the public is starting to come into this market, and one would think that with communication the way it is today there would be a flood to safer assets, but this has not been the case.
Unlike the markets of yester years where an investor could watch a slow grinding change occur, today’s financial, and capital markets, could totally collapse in a matter of hours.
WSJ MAY 6th 2006
On the eve of Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting this weekend, it is worth remembering that, three years ago, Warren Buffett warned that the global financial system was held hostage to ticking "time bombs" and at risk of a "megacatastrophe."
He was talking about financial derivatives: the options, swaps, forwards and more-exotic investment tools that have blossomed into a $270-trillion global market. He warned they had created a "daisy chain risk," that one Long Term Capital Management-style pratfall would topple the whole global house of cards.
First, let me start off with an easy question: What do Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett, PIMCO Managing Director William Gross, New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner, and Goldman Sachs managing director Gerald Corrigan have in common?
Answer: They are all knowledgeable and well-respected individuals who have warned about the structural deficiencies and systemic risks associated with the burgeoning market for over-the-counter derivatives.
The idea that Wall Street now has the skills, experience, and emotional resolve to cope with anything that might crop up also fails to take account of reality. Emotions such as fear and greed haven't gone away, and the likely response to the next crisis will be the same as always. People will panic, liquidity will evaporate, and fear will run rampant.
The difference this time, though, as opposed to when LTCM imploded, is that it will be very difficult for the New York Fed chief to gather myriad global financial operators into a room and "persuade" them to pony up the billions -- or perhaps the trillions -- necessary to stabilize the situation.
Do you really believe that if a derivatives bomb is unleashed by the failure of a London-based hedge fund, a banker in the Cayman Islands, an investor in Japan, an insurer in Germany, and a regulator in France will feel similarly inclined to respond, or even to take the lead in resolving a crisis -- assuming, of course, they even realize what is going on or why it may be relevant to their own interests?
Finally and perhaps most importantly, there are key differences between then and now. For one thing, the absolute level of risk has reached hitherto unseen levels. Total U.S. debt, for example, is more than three times output, the U.S. current account deficit is 7% of gross domestic product, unfunded U.S. retirement-related obligations add up to more than $50 trillion, and the notional value of derivatives outstanding is approaching the $300 trillion mark.
At the end of last year, the top five banks accounted for more than 96% of outstanding derivatives contracts versus 83% in 1998. And reportedly, there are more than $200 billion of credit default swaps riding on the financial health of General Motors alone.
No worries the leaders of tomorrow will solve all our problems?
Can you say dumb as a bucket of hair?
Well at least they won’t know what is happening to them, just so the game boys continue to work, that is the main thing right?
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Young Americans know little about world geography, with the majority unable to locate
Iraq on a map and three quarters unable to find Indonesia, according to a study.
The Roper poll conducted on behalf of National Geographic found that most of the young adults questioned between the ages of 18 and 24 also had little knowledge about their own country, with half or fewer unable to identify the states of New York or Ohio on a map.
The survey results showed said that despite nearly constant news coverage since the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003, 63 percent of respondents could not find Iraq on a map and 75 percent could not find Israel or Iran.
Nine in 10 also could not find Afghanistan on a map of Asia and 70 percent could not find North Korea.
A third or more of those questioned also could not find the states of Louisiana or Mississippi on a US map despite massive media coverage of the 2005 hurricanes that devastated these states.
National Geographic released the survey Tuesday in launching a five-year campaign to improve geographic literacy among young people in the United States.
Hints from www.jsmineset.com is that the REFCO blowup that occurred in September was very possibly
derivatives related. Many states, municipalities, and large corporations also have substantial risk via
D- Bombs through pension funds and other investments. While many derivatives are properly policed and
traded, the majority are not.
roadrunner
On a commodities bubble
Buffett: "I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.
Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."
OK, everybody out of the pool!!!
Obviously Buffet isnt too worried about derivatives.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would he have sold before the run up in this environment??
roadrunner
I believe that nestegg will se him thru any storm.
Camelot
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Berkshire mostly avoids commodity speculation because Buffett said he's "not good at the game of figuring out how far the speculative gains will go."
That means Berkshire won't make as much money as other investors who stay on until "the final 30 days or weeks of a wild orgy," he said, recalling a big investment Berkshire made in silver.
Buffett said Berkshire didn't make any money on his silver investment because he "bought it very early and sold it very early. Other than that, everything I did was perfect."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Egads! This is bringing back memories of Bob "I called it/No I didn't" Brinker.
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Li Yong, China's vice minister for finance, said he had heard a ``rumor'' that the U.S. dollar was headed for a 25 percent drop. If the gossip was true, the consequences would be ``SHOCKING,'' he said.
The unspoken message was: ``Don't try to talk the dollar down.'' And Adams knew better than to ask, ``Well, what are you going to do about it?'' The answer to that question has already begun taking shape: Asia may be getting ready to fix its currencies to a local anchor, dumping the region's unofficial dollar peg.
Even as they continue to pile up U.S. debt in their foreign- exchange reserves to keep their currencies stable against the dollar, Asian nations, China among them, are preparing for a scenario where the dollar does indeed collapse under the weight of a record U.S. current account deficit.
A New Peg
Korea, Japan and China agreed in Hyderabad to ``immediately launch discussions on the road map for a system to coordinate foreign exchange policy.''
<< <i>Where did you read that Buffet sold his silver? >>
Buffet said, we got in early and we got out early. Sounds like a sale to me and the price still kept rising.
Try a free trial membership here.
le metropole cafe
for more of the story.
WSJ May 9,2006
New International Monetary Fund data show that official currency reserves of the developing world nearly quadrupled over the past decade to $2.9 trillion last year,
"The irony is that the three countries in the world adding to reserves the fastest, and thus buying the most U.S. debt now, are China, Saudi Arabia and Russia, none of them democracies,"
Even well short of open conflict with the U.S., developing countries are showing less of a taste for holding dollars. IMF statistics show that developed countries have remained remarkably reliant on the greenback, which still accounted for 74% of their overall reserves in 2005. Yet developing nations have reduced the share of their dollar holdings to 60.5% from a high of 71.1% in 1998.
<< <i>
<< <i>Where did you read that Buffet sold his silver? >>
Buffet said, we got in early and we got out early. Sounds like a sale to me and the price still kept rising.
Try a free trial membership here.
le metropole cafe
for more of the story. >>
Check out Ted Butler's latest column for his speculation on Buffet. Interesting stuff...
Buffet loses his silver
an ETF.
If they are not good for corporations, then I cannot see how they can be good for metals.
Derivatives are good as long as no one has to perform on them in a pinch. The same is true for gold miners. But part of the run up in
gold prices is because companies like Barrick were/are heavily short gold. Some have been buying all the way up to reduce their bleeding
hedged positions. They were losing money > $350/oz. You can only imagine what it must feel like now at $700! Imagine the pain of JPMorgan and other banks who have shorted gold on the way up. A number of junior gold miners have staked their entire companies via derivatives. Eventually those juniors will go bust and the parent (loaner) will swallow them up. And gold will march on with one less company.
roadrunner
<< <i>One website mentioned that Buffet only said he no longer has the gold. Their suggestion was that he may have leased it.....possibly to
an ETF.
If they are not good for corporations, then I cannot see how they can be good for metals.
Derivatives are good as long as no one has to perform on them in a pinch. The same is true for gold miners. But part of the run up in
gold prices is because companies like Barrick were/are heavily short gold. Some have been buying all the way up to reduce their bleeding
hedged positions. They were losing money > $350/oz. You can only imagine what it must feel like now at $700! Imagine the pain of JPMorgan and other banks who have shorted gold on the way up. A number of junior gold miners have staked their entire companies via derivatives. Eventually those juniors will go bust and the parent (loaner) will swallow them up. And gold will march on with one less company.
roadrunner >>
Why do the miners have to "buy back"? Cant they just produce more or buy an unhedged company like Barrick did with Placer?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
solution as well. But the stinker derivatives with the parent still exist. It basically makes the whole company less of a value.
roadrunner