<< <i>Iran actually said they're going to switch to Euros soon.... >>
Got a source for that statement? As far as I have been able to determine, they have not said they will not accept dollars AND Euros. To do otherwise would isolate their market. The concept is working for them in that they are casting doubt upon the dollar. Doubt of the dollar is wise, but not imminent IMO. Eventually, but not yet.
Is there something new that states they will actually ...switch?
Well, lets say Iran wants Euros or gold or bat dung. I say BFD. Why? Lets put things in perspective.
Iran produces about 4 million barrels of oil a day. At $60 per barrel thats $240 million a day. WOW, thats a big number. Now after 365 days Iran has produced $87 billion of oil. WOW, now thats a huge number. Or is it really?
There is a company headquartered in Arkansas that sells $780 million of goods every day. And $285 billion a year. Now thats a big number. And you know what? This is only one US company. The entire GDP of Iran is less than 1/2 the revenues of Wal-Mart.
Let them take payment in gold or Euros. Good luck to them when they want to convert it to buy something.
O.K., There seems there are no great worries here ! So tell me again how this is not a problem? No oil, or Euros only, from Venezuela, Euros only from Iran, Iraq so tore up it cannot deliver anything, and the MAD BOMBERS after the Saudi fields.
2/14/ 2006 GMT Speculations have begun regarding whether the proposed March 2006 launch of the Iranian oil bourse (IOB), will become the catalyst for a significant blow to the position of the U.S. dollar? Iran is about to begin pricing its oil in euros. Unfortunately, just about everyone would benefit--except the United States- Without some form of U.S. intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade.
Oil climbs 4 percent on Saudi attack Friday February 24, 3:10 pm ET By Margaret Orgill LONDON (Reuters) - Oil jumped more than $2 on Friday after news of a suicide bomb attack at the huge Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia, which triggered worries about supply from the world's top crude producer.
February 24/2006 CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela has prohibited Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines from flying into this South American nation and is restricting American Airlines,
“The Euro ain't gonna establish no foothold nowhere cuz they got as many or more problems than WE do.”
Topstuf This is certainly true, but the Arabs don’t hate the Europeans the way they do Americans, and much of what they do is based on emotions, just watch the news. They are sick of being forced to buy our debt, and would even take a lesser currency if it would hurt us.
Plus, as I said look at the way our guys in Washington handle our trading partners.
Stephen Roach (New York) Morgan Stanley Global: Saving Backlash
There is a political firestorm over a proposed acquisition by Dubai Ports World of a UK operator of five East Coast container terminals in the United States. Just whom do we think we are kidding here?
America no longer has the internal wherewithal to fund the rapid growth of its economy. Suffering from the greatest domestic saving shortfall in modern history, the US is increasingly dependent on surplus foreign saving to fill the void. The net national saving rate -- the combined saving of individuals, businesses, and the government sector after adjusting for depreciation -- fell into negative territory to the tune of -1.3% of national income in late 2005.
Once the US started consuming beyond its means, it left itself beholden to external funding and production. And that’s how China and Dubai have entered America’s macro equation.
The United States continues to struggle mightily with globalization. China bashing is on the rise in Washington once again/
With that external funding imperative comes key geopolitical tradeoffs. Thank to China, America actually got a rather extraordinary deal for its trade deficit dollar in 2005 -- a net balance of some $200 billion of low-cost, high-quality Chinese goods that expanded the purchasing power of US consumers. If, however, Washington politicians now choose to close down trade with China by imposing high tariffs or forcing a major Chinese currency revaluation -- precisely the tact of a bipartisan coalition headed up by Senators Schumer (D-NY) and Graham (R-SC) -- those actions could well backfire.
The Federal budget deficit, which has accounted for the bulk of the plunge in national saving over the past six years, is made in Washington -- not in Beijing.
By the time the Arabs get to taking only Euros, the US will be in collapse (unpublished) and the Arabs will be gloating but at the same time, from dealing with Europe they will come to hate them also.
That region don't even like ITSELF!
....a little people, a silly people, greedy, barbarous, and cruel.......but they got OIL!
My fellow Iraqis...... HEY YOU SUNNIS.....stop dat.....oh gee....there go the SHIITES.......whoops an who let the Kurds in? Oh this meeting is turning out awful.
An interesting article from the Optimist (Jim Otis). His theory on the confiscation of silver (see inner link) as well as the non-confiscation of gold merits some thought. Note that the alternative plan for gold is to just apply a windfall profits tax to those who have gold. Problem solved. The RNA has also put out the same idea on gold.
Recessions have always put a damper on the coin market during the past 30 years. And each major recession (74-75, 80-82, 90-92) was preceded by 9-12 months of an inverted yield curve. Considering that the yield curve has just reached this point, is a "recession" on the horizon in 9-12 months? Based on those earlier charts, the coin markets typically accelerated upwards as the yield curves went more negative. By the time the curves came back to positive territory, the coin markets were dead. It almost feels like we are in 1988 or 1989 right now. A year of so left on the wagon. Comments?
Some would say we are in a recession now. Don't forget that consecutive quarters of declining GDP is the definition of a recession. Yet with the GDP goosed by erroneous "deflators" and inflation in general, it takes a lot of help to turn GDP downwards, much more so than 10-20 years ago. It wouldn't surprise me that we could be in a full blown recession down the road and the "govt stats" would not support what everyone knows to be true. Much the same way CPI indicates moderate to low inflation yet intuitively many feel just the opposite is true.
Very interesting. I have always just assumed that a recession or even a weak economy would be very bad for silver but he makes a good argument that the reverse could be true. It's probably a moot point since a real recession is implausible.
They can't use a windfall profit tax on gold. They'd hafta spend all the money on gold sniffing dogs at the border and Mexico would hang out a welcome mat.
A real recession imo is not only plausible but all but guaranteed. Just a matter of what finally triggers it and how much longer we can dodge the bullet. The FED has certainly been accomodating the past 3-4 years and basically ended a mini-recession that should have gone much deeper into the economy.
This chart is one that I would encourage all to copy and study. It will help you save and make lots of money over time. I think it is self explanatory but please ask if you have questions.
As I said in my predictions in Dec. I thought then, and still think, silver will way out perform Gold.
Taken from your article, “From 1970 to 1980, silver rose from $1.75 to a peak above $52 for a gain of almost 3,000%, and gold rose from $36 to more than $850 for a gain of 2,300%.”
The very big difference today I think, are two things, first while Gold has had a nice run up the last few years Silver has been left behind until just recently. Second as the price of Gold moves higher many folks in poorer countries will buy silver the way poorer Americans did in the late seventies.
I also see another problem forming as per my post on oil last week, with many countries demanding Euros for oil in the future just where will the U.S. get the Euros? Since we most likely do not have huge balance of trade payments on our side with European trading partners, what will the Feds do? They will of course print the dollars and exchange them for Euros. These newly printed dollars are not like notes they are cash that comes back here to buy stuff, and creates inflation. Perhaps this will not be a big problem to start, but it will add to the inflation we already have.
Personal I do not see a recession until we have had some period of media recognized inflation.
I like to go to my local Wal-Mart store here and wander around for an hour on Saturdays to get a fell of how folks are spending. Today I did that, and the junk is still rushing off the shelves. This truly amazes me with the savings rate being what it is, but today half of the HD TV’s were back order for 6 weeks and the $19.95 DVD’S and games were being bought up as fast as the stockers could put them out. As far as traffic, the store parking lot was 70% full. The American consumer is truly amazing, and will no doubt go down in history as shopping until they literally dropped!
As to your question on the top of the coin market you know my feelings on that with my Reiver post, but I must admit that other than a 30% increase in listings on Ebay I have not seen much of a slow down in the weekly actions of the big dealers.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
"Japan has posted its first monthly trade deficit in five years, and its biggest in 23 years. The trade balance fell to a 348.9bn yen ($2.95bn; £1.7bn) deficit in January against surpluses of 911.9bn yen in December and 193.9bn yen a year before. "
Thanks Topstuf to that reference to a John Williams interview. He has published some interesting articles on CPI, unemployment, and GDP distortion in the past. This about sums things up today.
A great read. But long. A good first time primer for anyone who thinks the economy is doing great because the stats say so. Ironically, this thread has more to do about the coin market and where it's going than 95% of the threads posted on the forum.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Yeah...bury this thread. No one wants to hear from stock analyists or people that travel to China (have you heard about China?) doing business, we don't want no investment strategies from professional brokers and we don't need no one that knows anything about mining stocks or bond funds...certainly collecting coins has nothing to do with the direction of world markets (oh yeah, gold and silver). What about fuel...got gas? How's your ARM (hee hee), what about paper silver...does it have anything to do with coin collecting...hummmm. Much better to have more "Grade this POS item of the day" posts rather than have any prognostication of where the world is heading with your money. You wouldn't want people to have a clue until well after they have been marketed with the latest scam to work their assets over, it's just much better if they don't know.
Now, about gold coins...no, it's about silver coins...no lets talk about the price of bullion or the scorching price rise of platinum (got gas?),why did this stuff rocket into the stratosphere?, where is it going...oh wait we should bury this talk. Why in the world would a coin collector be concerned with Gold and Silver World News, Economic Predictions...well, none at all, it's much better if they don't know. We don't need no stinkin' information on stuff.
I wasn't gambling, I was tipping .... It's a gratuitous kinda thing for members only . You're welcome !
Bury this THREAD ? No Way, REVIVE IT ! Gambling is alive and well..... just a little regulated by those empowered trying to stop those who want to be.
ya'll can call me what ya want with what duragatory terms you want in these threads, but, I am still obliged to share some GOOD NEWS when it's about to happen ! Gold/Silver.... mining/exploration anything to do around it has been pretty good since this thread started...
Just like the auction scene.... Pull the trigger and be quiet about it all.
and there is NO GAMBLING in these threads, but I will bet my pretend million dollars on CLCT instead of the world series in a game .... just cuz they dropped into the Kill Zone for me today
or was that philosophy of buy low sell high a silly philosophy ? so there's a time even in turmoil that you can have some fun
Kind of funny how this drop comes just a day or so before the launch of that game.... So, who's planning on playing that game ? seriously it can tie right into this thread where passion, humor, stupidity and genius meets about every day or so
February comes to a close and it was a terrible month to own gold mining or silver mining shares. For the month, the price of gold is down a modest 2%, and is still within striking distance of the recent highs. However, the XAU and HUI mining share indices are down about 15% and the charts look terrible. Score this month for those who favor owning the bullion (or coins). I wish I could say I predicted the movements for February, but I didn't. Good luck to all.
<< <i>February comes to a close and it was a terrible month to own gold mining or silver mining shares. For the month, the price of gold is down a modest 2%, and is still within striking distance of the recent highs. However, the XAU and HUI mining share indices are down about 15% and the charts look terrible. Score this month for those who favor owning the bullion (or coins). I wish I could say I predicted the movements for February, but I didn't. Good luck to all. >>
Jusr remember that the price movement of the stocks usually preceeds the movement of the underlying metal.
This is just not going to happen, unless the PCGS folks take it off.
I think this thread did just what it was supposed to do. It kept hundreds of individual threads out of the system. Even if it is impractical to read all of this thread, I don’t think that is important at this time, since all of the news here is timely. If folks want to follow what might affect their pocket books, and therefore our hobby, it is easy to read just the last few posts each week, or start at the beginning of a quarter.
Although we only have a few dozen regular posters it would be interesting to know how many folks on the Forum read this thread each week?
Nearly everything posted here may affect your ability to collect coins. Even seemingly unrelated posts like the one below, but does it really?
Do you think that if we had a general collapse in U.S. housing markets of 25% across the board it would effect coin prices?
What if the price of Gold, and Silver, doubled from here, would that affect prices?
What if 80% of American workers lost their pensions, and had to rely solely on S.C. would that affect coin prices?
I guess the bubble is bursting in some parts of the country. Who was that that posted here last year,that the Florida market would never go down?
California home sales drop 24% in January Decline reflects rising mortgage interest rates and weakening consumer confidence. February 28, 2006: 7:26 PM EST
Mass. home sales plummet 21% By Chris Reidy, Globe Staff | March 1, 2006
Standard Pacific Corp. Said late Monday, new home orders, excluding joint ventures, were down 13% from the year-ago period.
March 1, 2006 Orlando Florida’s real-estate market is off 24% in the last several months, as for-sale by owners shift to Realtors to move their properties.
<< <i>Could someone kindly summarize this thread for me? >>
Sure, he who has the gold makes the rules...
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
"Could someone kindly summarize this thread for me? "
Title summarizes it pretty well, it seems? This thread does seem to cover a lot of ground though. A little doom and gloom, a little optimism, lots of opinions based on posted source material, and a minimum of political BS. I think the key to understanding this thread is realizing that it is real time and things move around over time.
February was a bad month for gold? So what's that mean? I would suspect that March could be very good. Do we judge the performance of anything in the stock realm on a 30 day chart? Gold has to be a great investment every month? Now that is pure speculation and the definition of a trader. And it's interesting that 90% of traders lose money doing it.
To those got wimped out when gold first sailed to $540 or even to $570 looking to buy back after a $100 correction, have lost the ability to get back into the market at a good price. So when they finally come back will it be at $575 (after gold retreats from $630?) That's not all that smart if they bailed at $530 only to have to buy back much higher. The risk of being entirely out of any upwards moving market for a month or more at a time is the potential to miss a major move....and a 2nd one....and a 3rd one.....
Again, if one is a "pure" collector, of course this thread is a waste of time as which way the market is going is of little interest.
I stated a few months ago that we would see $490 - $520 an ounce gold price. I also said we would see them by Feb. Well it is now March and the price came down to $537 at low in Feb. I have yet to sell. I still believe we will see lower bullion price. I have also been buying up silver and very little gold although I said I would wait. I believe we are seeing a desperate attempt to keep the prices down. Perhaps we have seen the correction I have been waiting for, I don't know. I have bought a little in Feb; I will buy a little more in Mar. Perhaps this will be my approach for a while. You know, proceed with caution. I believe we will see higher gas prices at the pump by summer. There is fear that the dollar (fiat currency) will be replaced by Euros as payment for oil, which is why Bush is telling the country it is time to replace our dependency of oil for other resources. This is just one of the indicators that I feel gold will continue to climb. We certainly are not going to purchase oil in Euros are we ? This is one reason I believe other countires are stocking up. Americans [IMO], are no longer going to invest in a second home for the time being, and the stock market is getting scarce for good buy's. I feel the people are beginning to diversify into PM's (i.e... RAW, ETF's, etc...) This is my opinion and I want to personally thank all that have contributed to this thread, especially GS for getting us started. I say again Keep It Up Guys !
You should be buying gold. Or maybe not. No, Silver is the way to go. Maybe. Or maybe not. I KNOW what the market is going to do. Maybe. Possibly. Maybe not. The sky is falling. Maybe. Maybe not. You don't know what you are talking about. Maybe.
Pretty much sums up this thread. Maybe. Maybe not.
It cracks me up to read people saying that the Euro will replace the USD in world markets. The Euro zone is even more of a melt down waiting to happen: higher debt throughout, higher future liabilities (social security, etc), lower economic growth and unemployment, higher inflation, poorer political and economic understanding throught... I mean, that's a joke, right?
Now, if the Gulf states decide they want gold for payment, we will start living in interesting times indeed...
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
If the Gulf States started demanding Gold (or anything else) instead of Dollars, I imagine they will find themselves suddenly on the wrong side of the "War on Terror". From the ashes of the old regimes will emerge friendly "democracies" that again accept dollars for oil.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
Silver broke $10 at $10.20...all the guys holding $8 silver can finally get a break. Gold at $563 and rising strongly. Maybe the prediction of $600 in March will hold water. About one more fed rate increase should send the ARM folk to looking for cover so metal's all good! The new home construction is starting to have some stale inventory so the flippers with their go-go interest only's will probably start looking for cover too. Good time to have your financial house in order. Onward to what ever's next...got gold? Got your cards paid off? Got a little cash tucked away?
silver and gold will continue to go upward until both reaches their target. gold $1,000.00+ and silver $25.00+/-.
if silver hits $25.00. american eagle uncirculated bullion coin should be around $28.00 to $30.00. that's the price of american eagle silver proof coin today.
modern commems silver dollars with capsule but without c.o.a., sleeves/boxes dated 1983 to 1988 only will be good too. it should be worth around $28.00 to $30.00.
silver proof five pieces statehood quarters commom one without sleeves and c.o.a. will also be trading around $36.00 a set.
commom date u.s. silver coins dated 1964 and before per $1,000.00 will be around $18,500.00 to $19,000.00.
Anyone with gold and silver will be rich beyond their wildest dreams and have good lookin babes followin em around all over the wasteland left over after the crash.
Those without silver and gold will be sorted by weight and health and allowed to choose the "pet food" route or just be slaves to the ones who had gold and silver and only the good lookin ones will make it to that one.
I'm sure most gold guys also collect lead in various denominations....
.223 .45 .308
>>
Don't forget OO buckshot.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Whoa, watch for the heat coming down on this little item!
CNN March 6th 2006
How many large American assets are still owned by Americans? Every four years the U.S. Treasury department is supposed to send a report to Congress on just what American assets have been purchased by foreign governments, or companies. These reports are to be filed by law under the CIFUS rules. There have been no reports filed with the U.S. Congress since 1994. The stir over the DP World Ports transaction has encouraged many new questions about just who is buying American assets, and in what quantity.
According to some estimates there have been 1500 major U.S. assets sold to foreigners over the last twelve years, almost all of these has been approved quietly by the U.S. Treasury department. It appears only one may have been rejected, that being the Unocal deal last year. The Senate Banking committee now wants to know just what is going on. Foreign companies and governments awash with Trillions of U.S. dollars, and dollar backed securities, have been allowed to by up American assets at an ever increasing rate said one inside Washington spokesman.
I suppose this does not matter if our countries main assets are owned by foreigners, but we either have to stop this or the economy is going straight down the toilet. What in the World can we do to protect ourselves from these out of control people in Washington? This government is bankrupt!
The Associated Press Monday, March 6, 2006; 1:18 PM
WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary John Snow notified Congress on Monday that the administration has now taken "all prudent and legal actions," including tapping certain government retirement funds, to keep from hitting the $8.2 trillion national debt limit.
Snow in his letter notified lawmakers that Treasury would begin tapping the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, which Treasury officials said would provide a "few billion" dollars in extra borrowing ability.
Treasury officials also announced that on Friday they had used the $15 billion in the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a reserve that the Treasury secretary has that is normally used to smooth out volatile movements in the value of the dollar in currency markets.
Treasury has also been taking investments out of a $65.3 billion government pension fund known as the G-fund. The formal title for the G-fund is the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System.
Comments
<< <i>Iran actually said they're going to switch to Euros soon.... >>
Got a source for that statement? As far as I have been able to determine, they have not said they will not accept dollars AND Euros. To do otherwise would isolate their market. The concept is working for them in that they are casting doubt upon the dollar. Doubt of the dollar is wise, but not imminent IMO.
Eventually, but not yet.
Is there something new that states they will actually ...switch?
Iran produces about 4 million barrels of oil a day. At $60 per barrel thats $240 million a day. WOW, thats a big number. Now after 365 days Iran has produced $87 billion of oil. WOW, now thats a huge number. Or is it really?
There is a company headquartered in Arkansas that sells $780 million of goods every day. And $285 billion a year. Now thats a big number. And you know what? This is only one US company. The entire GDP of Iran is less than 1/2 the revenues of Wal-Mart.
Let them take payment in gold or Euros. Good luck to them when they want to convert it to buy something.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What's the daily volume in dollar currency exchange? Iran's $87 bill is probably 1 hour of currency exchange per year
<< <i>What's the daily volume in dollar currency exchange? Iran's $87 bill is probably 1 hour of currency exchange per year
Actually I dont think you are far off. With more than $1 trillion traded every day, you are talking about $40 billion an hour.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So tell me again how this is not a problem?
No oil, or Euros only, from Venezuela, Euros only from Iran, Iraq so tore up it cannot deliver anything, and the MAD BOMBERS after the Saudi fields.
2/14/ 2006 GMT
Speculations have begun regarding whether the proposed March 2006 launch of the Iranian oil bourse (IOB), will become the catalyst for a significant blow to the position of the U.S. dollar?
Iran is about to begin pricing its oil in euros. Unfortunately, just about everyone would benefit--except the United States- Without some form of U.S. intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade.
Oil climbs 4 percent on Saudi attack
Friday February 24, 3:10 pm ET
By Margaret Orgill
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil jumped more than $2 on Friday after news of a suicide bomb attack at the huge Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia, which triggered worries about supply from the world's top crude producer.
February 24/2006
CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela has prohibited Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines from flying into this South American nation and is restricting American Airlines,
Eventually it's gonna have to be actually DEALT with instead of jiggered around and ALL fiat currencies will do what they ALWAYS do.
Gold, silver, guns
A depression in China due to a recession here, China unrest, middle east going wild.
Bicycles, drugs, port security, mass wiretaps, canned food, masks, water filtration, aw hell.
“The Euro ain't gonna establish no foothold nowhere cuz they got as many or more problems than WE do.”
Topstuf
This is certainly true, but the Arabs don’t hate the Europeans the way they do Americans, and much of what they do is based on emotions, just watch the news. They are sick of being forced to buy our debt, and would even take a lesser currency if it would hurt us.
Plus, as I said look at the way our guys in Washington handle our trading partners.
Stephen Roach (New York)
Morgan Stanley
Global: Saving Backlash
There is a political firestorm over a proposed acquisition by Dubai Ports World of a UK operator of five East Coast container terminals in the United States.
Just whom do we think we are kidding here?
America no longer has the internal wherewithal to fund the rapid growth of its economy. Suffering from the greatest domestic saving shortfall in modern history, the US is increasingly dependent on surplus foreign saving to fill the void. The net national saving rate -- the combined saving of individuals, businesses, and the government sector after adjusting for depreciation -- fell into negative territory to the tune of -1.3% of national income in late 2005.
Once the US started consuming beyond its means, it left itself beholden to external funding and production. And that’s how China and Dubai have entered America’s macro equation.
The United States continues to struggle mightily with globalization. China bashing is on the rise in Washington once again/
With that external funding imperative comes key geopolitical tradeoffs. Thank to China, America actually got a rather extraordinary deal for its trade deficit dollar in 2005 -- a net balance of some $200 billion of low-cost, high-quality Chinese goods that expanded the purchasing power of US consumers. If, however, Washington politicians now choose to close down trade with China by imposing high tariffs or forcing a major Chinese currency revaluation -- precisely the tact of a bipartisan coalition headed up by Senators Schumer (D-NY) and Graham (R-SC) -- those actions could well backfire.
The Federal budget deficit, which has accounted for the bulk of the plunge in national saving over the past six years, is made in Washington -- not in Beijing.
That region don't even like ITSELF!
....a little people, a silly people, greedy, barbarous, and cruel.......but they got OIL!
Oh this meeting is turning out awful.
An interesting article from the Optimist (Jim Otis). His theory on the confiscation of silver (see inner link) as well as the non-confiscation of gold merits some thought. Note that the alternative plan for gold is to just apply a windfall profits tax to those who have gold. Problem solved. The RNA has also put out the same idea on gold.
Recessions have always put a damper on the coin market during the past 30 years. And each major recession (74-75, 80-82, 90-92) was preceded by 9-12 months of an inverted yield curve. Considering that the yield curve has just reached this point, is a "recession" on the horizon in 9-12 months? Based on those earlier charts, the coin markets typically accelerated upwards as the yield curves went more negative. By the time the curves came back to positive territory, the coin markets were dead. It almost feels like we are in 1988 or 1989 right now. A year of so left on the wagon.
Comments?
Some would say we are in a recession now. Don't forget that consecutive quarters of declining GDP is the definition of a recession.
Yet with the GDP goosed by erroneous "deflators" and inflation in general, it takes a lot of help to turn GDP downwards, much more so than 10-20 years ago. It wouldn't surprise me that we could be in a full blown recession down the road and the "govt stats" would not support what everyone knows to be true. Much the same way CPI indicates moderate to low inflation yet intuitively many feel just the opposite is true.
Mauldin article on the yield curve and the 6/50 rule more interesting reading on where the curve is headed and hence, where coins may be headed.
roadrunner
<< <i>silver or gold?
>>
Very interesting. I have always just assumed that a recession or even a weak economy would be
very bad for silver but he makes a good argument that the reverse could be true. It's probably a
moot point since a real recession is implausible.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dance around your house in a grass skirt while singing the theme song to Hawaii 5-0 and I think it will become clearer.
I will post my take on that chart shortly.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thanks for the article.
As I said in my predictions in Dec. I thought then, and still think, silver will way out perform Gold.
Taken from your article,
“From 1970 to 1980, silver rose from $1.75 to a peak above $52 for a gain of almost 3,000%, and gold rose from $36 to more than $850 for a gain of 2,300%.”
The very big difference today I think, are two things, first while Gold has had a nice run up the last few years Silver has been left behind until just recently. Second as the price of Gold moves higher many folks in poorer countries will buy silver the way poorer Americans did in the late seventies.
I also see another problem forming as per my post on oil last week, with many countries demanding Euros for oil in the future just where will the U.S. get the Euros?
Since we most likely do not have huge balance of trade payments on our side with European trading partners, what will the Feds do? They will of course print the dollars and exchange them for Euros. These newly printed dollars are not like notes they are cash that comes back here to buy stuff, and creates inflation. Perhaps this will not be a big problem to start, but it will add to the inflation we already have.
Personal I do not see a recession until we have had some period of media recognized inflation.
I like to go to my local Wal-Mart store here and wander around for an hour on Saturdays to get a fell of how folks are spending. Today I did that, and the junk is still rushing off the shelves. This truly amazes me with the savings rate being what it is, but today half of the HD TV’s were back order for 6 weeks and the $19.95 DVD’S and games were being bought up as fast as the stockers could put them out. As far as traffic, the store parking lot was 70% full. The American consumer is truly amazing, and will no doubt go down in history as shopping until they literally dropped!
As to your question on the top of the coin market you know my feelings on that with my Reiver post, but I must admit that other than a 30% increase in listings on Ebay I have not seen much of a slow down in the weekly actions of the big dealers.
<< <i>TIME TO BURY THIS THREAD. >>
??
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Good luck everyone.
Bright, sunny, lil report
The trade balance fell to a 348.9bn yen ($2.95bn; £1.7bn) deficit in January against surpluses of 911.9bn yen in December and 193.9bn yen a year before. "
Hummmmm
A great read. But long. A good first time primer for anyone who thinks the economy is doing great because the stats say so.
Ironically, this thread has more to do about the coin market and where it's going than 95% of the threads posted on the forum.
roadrunner
<< <i>TIME TO BURY THIS THREAD. >>
TTT
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Now, about gold coins...no, it's about silver coins...no lets talk about the price of bullion or the scorching price rise of platinum (got gas?),why did this stuff rocket into the stratosphere?, where is it going...oh wait we should bury this talk. Why in the world would a coin collector be concerned with Gold and Silver World News, Economic Predictions...well, none at all, it's much better if they don't know. We don't need no stinkin' information on stuff.
hint for the day
CLCT
I wasn't gambling, I was tipping .... It's a gratuitous kinda thing for members only
Bury this THREAD ? No Way, REVIVE IT !
Gambling is alive and well..... just a little regulated by those empowered trying to stop those who want to be.
ya'll can call me what ya want with what duragatory terms you want in these threads, but, I am still obliged to share some GOOD NEWS when it's about to happen ! Gold/Silver.... mining/exploration anything to do around it has been pretty good since this thread started...
Just like the auction scene.... Pull the trigger and be quiet about it all.
and there is NO GAMBLING in these threads, but I will bet my pretend million dollars on CLCT instead of the world series in a game .... just cuz they dropped into the Kill Zone for me today
or was that philosophy of buy low sell high a silly philosophy ? so there's a time even in turmoil that you can have some fun
Kind of funny how this drop comes just a day or so before the launch of that game.... So, who's planning on playing that game ? seriously it can tie right into this thread where passion, humor, stupidity and genius meets about every day or so
<< <i>February comes to a close and it was a terrible month to own gold mining or silver mining shares. For the month, the price of gold is down a modest 2%, and is still within striking distance of the recent highs. However, the XAU and HUI mining share indices are down about 15% and the charts look terrible. Score this month for those who favor owning the bullion (or coins). I wish I could say I predicted the movements for February, but I didn't. Good luck to all. >>
Jusr remember that the price movement of the stocks usually preceeds the movement of the underlying metal.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
“TIME TO BURY THIS THREAD.”
This is just not going to happen, unless the PCGS folks take it off.
I think this thread did just what it was supposed to do. It kept hundreds of individual threads out of the system.
Even if it is impractical to read all of this thread, I don’t think that is important at this time, since all of the news here is timely. If folks want to follow what might affect their pocket books, and therefore our hobby, it is easy to read just the last few posts each week, or start at the beginning of a quarter.
Although we only have a few dozen regular posters it would be interesting to know how many folks on the Forum read this thread each week?
Nearly everything posted here may affect your ability to collect coins. Even seemingly unrelated posts like the one below, but does it really?
Do you think that if we had a general collapse in U.S. housing markets of 25% across the board it would effect coin prices?
What if the price of Gold, and Silver, doubled from here, would that affect prices?
What if 80% of American workers lost their pensions, and had to rely solely on S.C. would that affect coin prices?
I guess the bubble is bursting in some parts of the country. Who was that that posted here last year,that the Florida market would never go down?
California home sales drop 24% in January
Decline reflects rising mortgage interest rates and weakening consumer confidence.
February 28, 2006: 7:26 PM EST
Mass. home sales plummet 21%
By Chris Reidy, Globe Staff | March 1, 2006
Standard Pacific Corp. Said late Monday,
new home orders, excluding joint ventures, were down 13% from the year-ago period.
March 1, 2006
Orlando Florida’s real-estate market is off 24% in the last several months, as for-sale by owners shift to Realtors to move their properties.
<< <i>Could someone kindly summarize this thread for me?
Sure, he who has the gold makes the rules...
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Title summarizes it pretty well, it seems? This thread does seem to cover a lot of ground though. A little doom and gloom, a little optimism, lots of opinions based on posted source material, and a minimum of political BS. I think the key to understanding this thread is realizing that it is real time and things move around over time.
Saul Goode
To those got wimped out when gold first sailed to $540 or even to $570 looking to buy back after a $100 correction, have lost the ability to get back into the market at a good price. So when they finally come back will it be at $575 (after gold retreats from $630?) That's not all that smart if they bailed at $530 only to have to buy back much higher. The risk of being entirely out of any upwards moving market for a month or more at a time is the potential to miss a major move....and a 2nd one....and a 3rd one.....
Again, if one is a "pure" collector, of course this thread is a waste of time as which way the market is going is of little interest.
roadrunner
Freak
Again, if one is a "pure" collector, of course this thread is a waste of time as which way the market is going is of little interest.
Excellent. I will stop reading it.
No, Silver is the way to go. Maybe. Or maybe not.
I KNOW what the market is going to do. Maybe. Possibly. Maybe not.
The sky is falling. Maybe. Maybe not.
You don't know what you are talking about. Maybe.
Pretty much sums up this thread.
Maybe.
Maybe not.
hi, i'm tom.
i do not doctor coins like some who post in here.
Now, if the Gulf states decide they want gold for payment, we will start living in interesting times indeed...
Robert A. Heinlein
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
Saul Goode
with a long term upward bias. Warning, some of the fluctuations may be severe.
Camelot
if silver hits $25.00. american eagle uncirculated bullion coin should be around $28.00 to $30.00. that's the price of american eagle silver proof coin today.
modern commems silver dollars with capsule but without c.o.a., sleeves/boxes dated 1983 to 1988 only will be good too. it should be worth around $28.00 to $30.00.
silver proof five pieces statehood quarters commom one without sleeves and c.o.a. will also be trading around $36.00 a set.
commom date u.s. silver coins dated 1964 and before per $1,000.00 will be around $18,500.00 to $19,000.00.
that's a good day dreaming. who knows?.
Anyone with gold and silver will be rich beyond their wildest dreams and have good lookin babes followin em around all over the wasteland left over after the crash.
Those without silver and gold will be sorted by weight and health and allowed to choose the "pet food" route or just be slaves to the ones who had gold and silver and only the good lookin ones will make it to that one.
I'm sure most gold guys also collect lead in various denominations....
.223 .45 .308
hi, i'm tom.
i do not doctor coins like some who post in here.
<< <i>Bring on the havenots !!!
I'm sure most gold guys also collect lead in various denominations....
.223 .45 .308
Don't forget OO buckshot.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
CNN March 6th 2006
How many large American assets are still owned by Americans?
Every four years the U.S. Treasury department is supposed to send a report to Congress on just what American assets have been purchased by foreign governments, or companies. These reports are to be filed by law under the CIFUS rules. There have been no reports filed with the U.S. Congress since 1994. The stir over the DP World Ports transaction has encouraged many new questions about just who is buying American assets, and in what quantity.
According to some estimates there have been 1500 major U.S. assets sold to foreigners over the last twelve years, almost all of these has been approved quietly by the U.S. Treasury department. It appears only one may have been rejected, that being the Unocal deal last year. The Senate Banking committee now wants to know just what is going on.
Foreign companies and governments awash with Trillions of U.S. dollars, and dollar backed securities, have been allowed to by up American assets at an ever increasing rate said one inside Washington spokesman.
This government is bankrupt!
The Associated Press
Monday, March 6, 2006; 1:18 PM
WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary John Snow notified Congress on Monday that the administration has now taken "all prudent and legal actions," including tapping certain government retirement funds, to keep from hitting the $8.2 trillion national debt limit.
Snow in his letter notified lawmakers that Treasury would begin tapping the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, which Treasury officials said would provide a "few billion" dollars in extra borrowing ability.
Treasury officials also announced that on Friday they had used the $15 billion in the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a reserve that the Treasury secretary has that is normally used to smooth out volatile movements in the value of the dollar in currency markets.
Treasury has also been taking investments out of a $65.3 billion government pension fund known as the G-fund. The formal title for the G-fund is the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System.