Where is that thread on the bet by Lloyd on $600 gold or Dow 13,000
By Peter Schiff
January 13, 2006
www.europac.net
This week, Wall Street strategists cheered as the Dow Jones closed above 11,000 for the first time in four and a half years. As a result, many are now predicting a new all-time high, which would see the index finally exceeding its 11,750 peak first reached back in January of 2000. Do not succumb to the hype.
11,750 hardly has the same purchasing power today as it did in January of 2000. The significant inflation of the last six years (bogus CPI numbers not withstanding) has rendered any direct dollar comparisons meaningless. To get a more accurate assessment, try measuring the index in terms of something other than depreciating dollars. Historically, the best comparison is relative to gold. Back in January of 2000, with the Dow Jones at 11,750 and gold at $280 per ounce, the Dow was worth about 42 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at 11,000 and gold over $550 per ounce, the Dow is only worth less then 20 ounces of gold. In other words, measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually declined in value by over 50%. To make a real new high, given the current price of gold, the Dow would have to rise above 23,000.
Back in January of 2000, with the Dow Jones at 11,750 and gold at $280 per ounce, the Dow was worth about 42 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at 11,000 and gold over $550 per ounce, the Dow is only worth less then 20 ounces of gold. In other words, measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually declined in value by over 50%. To make a real new high, given the current price of gold, the Dow would have to rise above 23,000.
Goldsaint...I am not trying to pick on you....moreso the guy who wrote this. I love playing with the numbers also so I will rewrite this paragraph.
Back in January of 1990, with the Dow Jones at 2800 and gold at $400 per ounce, the Dow was worth about 7 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at 11,000 and gold over $550 per ounce, the Dow is worth less than 20 ounces of gold. In other words, measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually increased in value by over 285%. To make a real new high, given the current price of the Dow, gold would have to rise to over $1500.
Remember in 1990 the world didnt look so pretty either. The US was in a recession and on the verge of war with Iraq. The Soviet Union was flexing its military might. The Eastern Bloc countries were in turmoil. The US real estate market was in the stratosphere.
<< <i>Deadhorse, You physically have those American Eagles as an IRA? >>
Yes.
I have a couple of jobs, one of them is contract, the other is salaried. The salary side does not offer any type of 401K, etc. It does offer a great medical/insurance package though.
I also incorporated a while back to protect my contract income as well as utilize my expenses.
So, by law I am self-employed, even though I am also an employee that doesn't affect the self employment side. I do what's known as a SEP IRA and run it through my corporation, so I can be my own administrator. You are allowed to put away up to 20% of self employed income into a SEP IRA, with a top limit of 45K annually.
There are restrictions as to what can be put into the fund. Pure bullion is not allowed, but US Mint Gold Eagles qualify, as do all US mint products. What a surprise, eh? No, not Kruggerands, not Pandas and so forth. The only precious metals allowed must be US Mint products.
I simply put them into a separate safe deposit box, the cost of which is also deductable, along with the invoices/paperwork and fill out my tax return accordingly.
So, yes, I physically have them. There is a stiff penalty for taking them out, but they can be taken out temporarily as long as they are returned in an acceptable form. The penalty is doubly bad as I act as my own administrator through my corporation and the admin has a legal responsibility as well.
As long as everything is in place and it's all there up untill I am 59 1/2, all the taxes are deferred until such time as I convert them into cash and spend it. Of course, I can leave them there longer as well and can continue to add to them up through age 65, I believe. I have no intentions of working anywhere near that long, so I am not 100% up to snuff on the far side of what is acceptable to the IRS. I plan on retiring well before I'm 59 anyway.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
over there...tis better to hedge your US dollars in gold rather than keep them in US dollars which is eactly why gold is gone up...and going up
always i giggle to see foriegners say 80 million US $ for an asset here in the US like an office building or a golf developement only to sell in 5 years for 60 million....someone made the 20 mil....and of course uncle sam got his cut too
monsterman
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
As long as we are looking at what the eqivalent all time high for the DOW would be in 2000 dollars, let's also look at the all-time high for gold back in 1980 dollars. That would mean something like $3200 gold. Even in 1981 when gold last was at $550, we'd need to reach $2200 today to have the equivalent purchasing power. Gold has far to go. Stats can deceive in many different ways. Gold at $550, even considering it has doubled in 5 years, is a give-away in comparison to other measures of value.
So, how about us regular guys trying to interpret the postings and the patterns in the bat guano? It seems like the downside for $550 gold is about $470 and the upside concensus seems to be not less than $1000, give or take, by the end of the year. Does this seem to be a reasonable distillation of the concensus?
After the experience of watching platinum go radioactive, I'm likin' it. It wouldn't necessarily be a suprise to see other pm's follow the example that platinum just showed us. Even if platinum has more industrial demand and had a vigorous run, silver, gold, copper, even zinc have their own demand niches. For what ever reason, demand for metals seems to be rising.
Man, this is almost as much fun as watching a baseball game, with a couple of buks on the side. It seems reasonable that there may well be a fair amount more assayed metals paid for on paper than there may actually be in assayed physical metal. We've got a front row seat for some interesting times. I think it is safe to say that the teams are taking the field and the umpires are starting to gather at home plate. If we knew what was going to happen, it wouldn't be necessary to play the game.
Rumor has it that naysayer Dollardude is coming on the forum this weekend for a goodbye chat and to extol once again the virtues of Dow index funds over barbarous gold.
Don't worry. The naysayers will be back as soon as gold takes the next big correction. They'll be once again preaching $350 gold. As long as Prechter is still holding on to his $200 gold prediction it's hard to find fault with others who have the same thoughts.
Remember, if we were in the majority on gold views, gold would be headed down by now. So let's take some pride in our vast minority as it will ensure better returns but most importantly, maintaining at least what you have now when things get rough. Coming out of this over the next 5-10 years INTACT will be a big thing.
i guess i have my mind set on where were going and why i just would like to see other's thoughts on where their going and why ? i'm a American midwest and i hope i'm wrong but i can't see any other path for this country at this time damn funny huh ? i truly believe this is the best country in the world or ever has been i hope the powers to be wake up but i have my doubts
I was a stock broker for 2 years before 9/11 for a small brokerage that worked with Bear Stearns. I was a trading clerk and compliance specialist. I did not buy stocks while there but learned to trade stock options and did so with some success. I would like to trade options on Gold/Silver/Oil futures but am not sure where to open an account and if I can buy options on the futures or if I am stuck buying future options. I only have about 10,000 to open an active account. So my two questions:
1. Can I buy sell put/calls on future prices without future contracts?
2. Where can I open an account that offers realtime option price data and has low cost comissions?
3. I am very bullish on gold in case you havent noticed. It is calling me.
You can PM or email me at netrubicon@yahoo.com
I really need help quickly with this from someone with experience on the business. Thanks
Collecting cleaned, scratched, scraped, AT and ugly POS coins for over 2 years now!
I am beginning to think we could see a parabolic move in gold occur between now and the end of the quarter.....If you think about it, with gold at $560 as I type this......that is in nominal dollars or simply the WORD dollar.....In 1979-1980 when gold hit $800 a dollar was worth more so in reality gold is cheap as compared to THEN.....
I believe we can test that $750-$800 level very quickly as in weeks.....
Iran, bird flu, declining dollar/Bernanke coming in, Mideast conflict/Iraq.....the cards are in place for a sudden buying binge by Asia, India and others.....There is not enough gold around for such a buying binge.....
So I want to go on record as stating I believe gold will surge this quarter to possibly $750-$850 before running out of steam and pulling back 15%-20%.....
And by the way I believe Lloyds bet is in deep trouble!
<< <i>So I want to go on record as stating I believe gold will surge this quarter to possibly $750-$850 before running out of steam and pulling back 15%-20%..... >>
That would still be $640 ($800 X 80%)
"The greatest productive force is human selfishness." Robert A. Heinlein
I guess the best way to describe my feelings about this market is to call it a tsunami effect.....More and more will be piling on and there is only so much gold to go around.......We will exceed expectations on the upside and the declines/pullbacks will be evn more violent......This will not be an easy victory......
BTW, I believe that we also will start to have greater movement in both directions.....So far I believe the biggest move we have had is $13 in a day......I think we will start to see $20 and $30 swings soon.....
The Euro isn't much better than the U.S. Dollar IMO. It might be an a play for now to keep flat money alive but the writing is on the wall and these countries are buying gold in record quanities. Let's face it's the world is in transistion and everyone is looking for a place to hedge there funds. In the end only goods may be worth a darn (food, water, oil, materials). Even gold and silver wouldn't be worth a darn if thing really got bad. Will it happen? I don't know but everyone feels it in their gut rater they want to admit it or not.
I think we'll see more terror in Europe than in the U.S. since some of these countries have been taken over by muslims just like France that will cause people to take a long pause on the Euro.
ttown, that's what I have always thought also. EXCEPT that the move would feed Russia's newfound (old and never dead but just now being remembered) nationalism. The US now has a ...frikkin...BEVY of enemies due to our insane president and his toadies. They would do it just to give us the finger, IMO. And the Euro could be salvaged into the NEW "reserve currency" which, although little better than the dollar would as the article states, turn it into the currency of choice due to its desirability in buying oil.
And as fiat currencies are ALL junk, the one that buys oil simply HAS to be preferable to the one that does not.
Not a bright prospect, but there it is. The listed options for response are VERY scary.
How much more of our debt can the World keep absorbing?
Is there ever any repayment, or do we just roll it over?
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury yields may rise in coming weeks as the U.S. government overwhelms investors with $171 billion of debt sales.
The Treasury plans to borrow $171 billion between January and March to pay for rebuilding after Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, $27 billion more than in last year's first quarter. Banc of America Securities LLC analysts forecast about 60 percent of the sales will take place by Feb. 9.
A JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey on Jan. 9 showed investors in the $4 trillion Treasury market are the most bearish on government debt since September. The Treasury's auction of $13 billion of five-year notes on Jan. 11 drew the least demand since April. Companies added to the strain with a record $37.9 billion of bond sales last week.
The success of coming auctions depends on demand from foreign investors, who hold about 52 percent of U.S. government debt, said J&W Seligman's Mahony. Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, bought 28.5 percent of last week's five-year note auction, down from 44 percent in December.
Public employee pensions have become increasingly generous since 2000, promising a more comfortable retirement for civil servants but a serious financial challenge for future taxpayers....
That is an interesting article. It is however nothing new. That is part of the reason for the relatively lackluster stock performance compared to RGLD, NEM, ect.
The problem is the premise is that their "short position" has to be bought back. They have not borrowed anything that needs to be paid back. What they have done is simply sold their future production at what may turn out to be lower than market prices. They do not have to go into the open market to buy gold. They can simply produce it.
And ABX has been reducing their forward contracts over the past 2 years.
If you hold the unhedged mining stocks (HUI) you should do fine. Yes, I would be leery of significantly hedged miners such as Barrick. But Barrick has been unwinding their hedge over the past few years. Still it's odd that the XAU (unhedged miners) is doing as well or better as the HUI index
Surprised there was no hoopla on gold's bath today....dropping nearly $20 down to $545. We'll have to see if those same buyers are just chomping at the bit to buy back low.
NEW YORK - Gold futures fell sharply early Wednesday, caught up in the turmoil in the Japanese stock market, where trading ended before its regularly-scheduled close as a flood of sell orders threatened to overwhelm the Tokyo Stock Exchange's systems.
The Nikkei plunged 2.9%, after falling 2.8% on Tuesday. The Topix Index of all first-section issues ended down 3.5%.
The steep decline led to heavy selling of crude futures on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange as funds liquidiated positions in order to meet large margin calls, according to Action Economics.
"Gold market fundamentals still remain robust (high physical demand, constrained output), though, and the latest decline will tempt more buying once the dust settles on the Tokyo stock market.
Against this background, gold for February delivery was last trading down $8.10, or 1.5%, at $546.20 an ounce, having earlier fallen to as low as $543.10, its lowest level in a week. Other metals fell with it, with silver down 12.3 cents at $8.95 an ounce, platinum down $16.60 at $1,032.50 an ounce and palladium off $10.85 an ounce.
"BTW, I believe that we also will start to have greater movement in both directions.....So far I believe the biggest move we have had is $13 in a day......I think we will start to see $20 and $30 swings soon....."
<< <i>Anybody familiar with Walras Law. If so, isnt this silly? >>
What's "Walras Law"?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I think my buy price is about to come into range in the next few days. Here is to patience. Still need to see it under $520 though.
Freak >>
Your buy price is UNDER $520?
You may be sitting on that money you plan to use for that buy for quite some time. I'd be surprised if we ever see a close below $520 again. It's possible, but it seems remote.
Silver has lost nearly 50 cents in the last 48 hours, that translates to over 5%. These sorts of swings are to be expected, but the floor is always higher and has been for years now.
I'd consider this current fall back as a point to buy as the next spike upward is likely to be higher than the last. It's the nature of metals these days.
I'm currently buying both silver and gold as I don't expect to see this drop continue much longer.
He who hesitates is lost. I know people who waited for months to see gold drop back below $400 to make their buy. They're still waiting.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
You may be sitting on that money you plan to use for that buy for quite some time. I'd be surprised if we ever see a close below $520 again.
Hi Deadhorse, Actually to see the gold market come down 20 dollars in a couple days, I find it very possible that another 20 dollars is in the future, the near future. I have been buying gold for a few years now, so either way I will be fine. Of course I would love to see it continue north, but "the force" tells me that we will see between $490 - $520. It may not be as soon as this week or next, but I feel we will see it by next month. At that point I will continue to buy.
Iran gets ready, no catching them off guard with freezing accounts!
"TEHRAN (AFX) - The governor of Iran's Central Bank has indicated that Tehran has already started shifting its foreign hard currency deposits to southeastern Asia amid the threat of sanctions,
Iranian hard currency reserves in foreign banks, mainly European banks, are valued at more than 36 billion usd.
U.S. stocks headed for their biggest losses in three months on earnings shortfalls and a surge in oil prices to more than $68 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wiped out almost all of its 2006 advance."
A silver and Gold pullback would be great. The more the better. Im not looking at gold and silver prices this month, Im looking at them next year. Falling prices are scaring the weak and larger positioned holders. When they start selling, it time to start buying. Gold is in overbought territory at the moment. Its at the top of the price channel so pullback is expected. Id love to see 525 gold again, and 8.00 silver. This is the beginning of the legs for metals not the top. Gold at 550.00 over a 20 year period is considered cheap. Many things will happen global politically and here in our economy thet will push these metals into the stratosphere. Its going to take years not months. Just buy on the pullbacks and bottom price channels. Disclaimer: I am poor and in debt so my market "theories" thus far have not made me a member of the millionaires club. Hey, at least Im honest!
Collecting cleaned, scratched, scraped, AT and ugly POS coins for over 2 years now!
Had occasion to visit with a fellow gold bug at the Houston Money Show this weekend and gleaned some interesting information to share. The dealer was very experienced but he didn't use the computer so I doubt he is party to this thread.
Here's what he said...
Israel will attack Iran
Gold and Oil are going to skyrocket.
GAE's are best because of the govt. history (private ownership of bullion fears), the value of U.S. paper, and the small cost over spot.(He wasn't selling any gold either...just silver collector coins).
Also, he opinioned that the .999 buffalo due out this year might be good but stay away from any 90% gold. I don't agree with for reasons stated below. He said to not own any foreign gold. I do agree with that but that's just my personal opinion.
He said the Chinese are buying gold big time, now. The govt. has allowed private ownership of gold and they are buying it all the way from the private individuals to the central bank.
He talked about the paper situation with all the govts. and gave the secret, gold bug mating call "But, Buy, Buy!"
The gold coin market seems to be cooking so I had decided to shed some stray gold coins if I could get a good price. One coin, a $10 indian common date in 63 went for $1350 and it was snapped up like a cold watermelon in a South Texas July, at twice what I got it for, less than a year ago. Same fare for the rest (5 coins). That's why I can't agree with the 90% gold call.
There were few $5 and $10 pre-'33 coins at the show, damn few. There were mounds and mounds of $20 libs there at the show. My opinion...If you are a collector of pre-'33 gold, you better get after it, it seems that it really just aren't abundant right now and this is part of what I've seen as a continuing trend. My other opinion, on gold coins is...buy, buy, buy, but buy smart.
Comments
Ok RR, now you are scaring me. (I got chills there multipling...ENJ,JT)
Freak
Bid/Ask 556.50 - 557.20
Where is that thread on the bet by Lloyd on $600 gold or Dow 13,000
By Peter Schiff
January 13, 2006
www.europac.net
This week, Wall Street strategists cheered as the Dow Jones closed above 11,000 for the first time in four and a half years. As a result, many are now predicting a new all-time high, which would see the index finally exceeding its 11,750 peak first reached back in January of 2000. Do not succumb to the hype.
11,750 hardly has the same purchasing power today as it did in January of 2000. The significant inflation of the last six years (bogus CPI numbers not withstanding) has rendered any direct dollar comparisons meaningless. To get a more accurate assessment, try measuring the index in terms of something other than depreciating dollars. Historically, the best comparison is relative to gold. Back in January of 2000, with the Dow Jones at 11,750 and gold at $280 per ounce, the Dow was worth about 42 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at 11,000 and gold over $550 per ounce, the Dow is only worth less then 20 ounces of gold. In other words, measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually declined in value by over 50%. To make a real new high, given the current price of gold, the Dow would have to rise above 23,000.
Not for someone with $7000 and 5 years until involuntary retirement.
Goldsaint...I am not trying to pick on you....moreso the guy who wrote this. I love playing with the numbers also so I will rewrite this paragraph.
Back in January of 1990, with the Dow Jones at 2800 and gold at $400 per ounce, the Dow was worth about 7 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at 11,000 and gold over $550 per ounce, the Dow is worth less than 20 ounces of gold. In other words, measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually increased in value by over 285%. To make a real new high, given the current price of the Dow, gold would have to rise to over $1500.
Remember in 1990 the world didnt look so pretty either. The US was in a recession and on the verge of war with Iraq. The Soviet Union was flexing its military might. The Eastern Bloc countries were in turmoil. The US real estate market was in the stratosphere.
Man, I love these things.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Deadhorse, You physically have those American Eagles as an IRA? >>
Yes.
I have a couple of jobs, one of them is contract, the other is salaried. The salary side does not offer any type of 401K, etc. It does offer a great medical/insurance package though.
I also incorporated a while back to protect my contract income as well as utilize my expenses.
So, by law I am self-employed, even though I am also an employee that doesn't affect the self employment side. I do what's known as a SEP IRA and run it through my corporation, so I can be my own administrator. You are allowed to put away up to 20% of self employed income into a SEP IRA, with a top limit of 45K annually.
There are restrictions as to what can be put into the fund. Pure bullion is not allowed, but US Mint Gold Eagles qualify, as do all US mint products. What a surprise, eh? No, not Kruggerands, not Pandas and so forth. The only precious metals allowed must be US Mint products.
I simply put them into a separate safe deposit box, the cost of which is also deductable, along with the invoices/paperwork and fill out my tax return accordingly.
So, yes, I physically have them. There is a stiff penalty for taking them out, but they can be taken out temporarily as long as they are returned in an acceptable form. The penalty is doubly bad as I act as my own administrator through my corporation and the admin has a legal responsibility as well.
As long as everything is in place and it's all there up untill I am 59 1/2, all the taxes are deferred until such time as I convert them into cash and spend it. Of course, I can leave them there longer as well and can continue to add to them up through age 65, I believe. I have no intentions of working anywhere near that long, so I am not 100% up to snuff on the far side of what is acceptable to the IRS. I plan on retiring well before I'm 59 anyway.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
you are exactl correct....and ring the bell
i see you took econ 506....im impressed
over there...tis better to hedge your US dollars in gold rather than keep them in US dollars which is eactly why gold is gone up...and going up
always i giggle to see foriegners say 80 million US $ for an asset here in the US like an office building or a golf developement only to sell in 5 years for 60 million....someone made the 20 mil....and of course uncle sam got his cut too
monsterman
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
roadrunner
After the experience of watching platinum go radioactive, I'm likin' it. It wouldn't necessarily be a suprise to see other pm's follow the example that platinum just showed us. Even if platinum has more industrial demand and had a vigorous run, silver, gold, copper, even zinc have their own demand niches. For what ever reason, demand for metals seems to be rising.
Man, this is almost as much fun as watching a baseball game, with a couple of buks on the side. It seems reasonable that there may well be a fair amount more assayed metals paid for on paper than there may actually be in assayed physical metal. We've got a front row seat for some interesting times. I think it is safe to say that the teams are taking the field and the umpires are starting to gather at home plate. If we knew what was going to happen, it wouldn't be necessary to play the game.
Saul Goode
Do the assayers have stocks that trade in America?
no way gold is going higher !!!!!!!!!!
just a thought ?
Don't worry. The naysayers will be back as soon as gold takes the next big correction. They'll be once again preaching $350 gold.
As long as Prechter is still holding on to his $200 gold prediction it's hard to find fault with others who have the same thoughts.
Remember, if we were in the majority on gold views, gold would be headed down by now. So let's take some pride in our vast minority as it will ensure better returns but most importantly, maintaining at least what you have now when things get rough. Coming out of this over the next 5-10 years INTACT will be a big thing.
roadrunner
i just would like to see other's thoughts on where their going and why ?
i'm a American midwest and i hope i'm wrong but i can't see any other path for this country at this time
damn
funny huh ?
i truly believe this is the best country in the world or ever has been
i hope the powers to be wake up but i have my doubts
Hello,
I was a stock broker for 2 years before 9/11 for a small brokerage that worked with Bear Stearns. I was a trading clerk and compliance specialist. I did not buy stocks while there but learned to trade stock options and did so with some success. I would like to trade options on Gold/Silver/Oil futures but am not sure where to open an account and if I can buy options on the futures or if I am stuck buying future options. I only have about 10,000 to open an active account. So my two questions:
1. Can I buy sell put/calls on future prices without future contracts?
2. Where can I open an account that offers realtime option price data and has low cost comissions?
3. I am very bullish on gold in case you havent noticed. It is calling me.
You can PM or email me at netrubicon@yahoo.com
I really need help quickly with this from someone with experience on the business. Thanks
Watch PAAS, SSRI, SIL, HL.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I believe we can test that $750-$800 level very quickly as in weeks.....
Iran, bird flu, declining dollar/Bernanke coming in, Mideast conflict/Iraq.....the cards are in place for a sudden buying binge by Asia, India and others.....There is not enough gold around for such a buying binge.....
So I want to go on record as stating I believe gold will surge this quarter to possibly $750-$850 before running out of steam and pulling back 15%-20%.....
And by the way I believe Lloyds bet is in deep trouble!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
<< <i>So I want to go on record as stating I believe gold will surge this quarter to possibly $750-$850 before running out of steam and pulling back 15%-20%..... >>
That would still be $640 ($800 X 80%)
Robert A. Heinlein
BTW, I believe that we also will start to have greater movement in both directions.....So far I believe the biggest move we have had is $13 in a day......I think we will start to see $20 and $30 swings soon.....
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
I think we'll see more terror in Europe than in the U.S. since some of these countries have been taken over by muslims just like France that will cause people to take a long pause on the Euro.
And the Euro could be salvaged into the NEW "reserve currency" which, although little better than the dollar would as the article states, turn it into the currency of choice due to its desirability in buying oil.
And as fiat currencies are ALL junk, the one that buys oil simply HAS to be preferable to the one that does not.
Not a bright prospect, but there it is. The listed options for response are VERY scary.
I read that with my dinner wanting to come up.
<< <i>The US now has a ...frikkin...BEVY of enemies >>
The US can take care of its enemies. It's the friends who're a problem.
<< <i>And the Euro could be salvaged into the NEW "reserve currency" >>
The euro zone is just as much in debt, at least for the top countries, DE and FR.
Robert A. Heinlein
When will the World just say NO?
How much more of our debt can the World keep absorbing?
Is there ever any repayment, or do we just roll it over?
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury yields may rise in coming weeks as the U.S. government overwhelms investors with $171 billion of debt sales.
The Treasury plans to borrow $171 billion between January and March to pay for rebuilding after Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, $27 billion more than in last year's first quarter. Banc of America Securities LLC analysts forecast about 60 percent of the sales will take place by Feb. 9.
A JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey on Jan. 9 showed investors in the $4 trillion Treasury market are the most bearish on government debt since September. The Treasury's auction of $13 billion of five-year notes on Jan. 11 drew the least demand since April. Companies added to the strain with a record $37.9 billion of bond sales last week.
The success of coming auctions depends on demand from foreign investors, who hold about 52 percent of U.S. government debt, said J&W Seligman's Mahony. Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, bought 28.5 percent of last week's five-year note auction, down from 44 percent in December.
An excellent post by Glavin on another thread,
Text
”You may want to see who stands to loose in the gold market.”
And this is why I sold all my Gold stocks last year,
Link
http://www.investmentrarities.com/01-03-06.html
By Dennis Cauchon, USA TODAY
Public employee pensions have become increasingly generous since 2000, promising a more comfortable retirement for civil servants but a serious financial challenge for future taxpayers....
Roll it, man. America does not believe in No.
That is an interesting article. It is however nothing new. That is part of the reason for the relatively lackluster stock performance compared to RGLD, NEM, ect.
The problem is the premise is that their "short position" has to be bought back. They have not borrowed anything that needs to be paid back. What they have done is simply sold their future production at what may turn out to be lower than market prices. They do not have to go into the open market to buy gold. They can simply produce it.
And ABX has been reducing their forward contracts over the past 2 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes, I would be leery of significantly hedged miners such as Barrick.
But Barrick has been unwinding their hedge over the past few years.
Still it's odd that the XAU (unhedged miners) is doing as well or better as the HUI index
roadrunner
The hedged miners are swimming in losses. No reason to own them at all.
roadrunner
Freak
NEW YORK - Gold futures fell sharply early Wednesday, caught up in the turmoil in the Japanese stock market, where trading ended before its regularly-scheduled close as a flood of sell orders threatened to overwhelm the Tokyo Stock Exchange's systems.
The Nikkei plunged 2.9%, after falling 2.8% on Tuesday. The Topix Index of all first-section issues ended down 3.5%.
The steep decline led to heavy selling of crude futures on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange as funds liquidiated positions in order to meet large margin calls, according to Action Economics.
"Gold market fundamentals still remain robust (high physical demand, constrained output), though, and the latest decline will tempt more buying once the dust settles on the Tokyo stock market.
Against this background, gold for February delivery was last trading down $8.10, or 1.5%, at $546.20 an ounce, having earlier fallen to as low as $543.10, its lowest level in a week.
Other metals fell with it, with silver down 12.3 cents at $8.95 an ounce, platinum down $16.60 at $1,032.50 an ounce and palladium off $10.85 an ounce.
You're all over it John, nice call!
<< <i>Anybody familiar with Walras Law. If so, isnt this silly? >>
What's "Walras Law"?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/rdixon/wlaw.html
That is what has me worried. Silver had a great opportunity to break out on Monday but failed.
It is still in an uptrend however there are several negative divergences in the momentums.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I think my buy price is about to come into range in the next few days. Here is to patience. Still need to see it under $520 though.
Freak >>
Your buy price is UNDER $520?
You may be sitting on that money you plan to use for that buy for quite some time. I'd be surprised if we ever see a close below $520 again. It's possible, but it seems remote.
Silver has lost nearly 50 cents in the last 48 hours, that translates to over 5%. These sorts of swings are to be expected, but the floor is always higher and has been for years now.
I'd consider this current fall back as a point to buy as the next spike upward is likely to be higher than the last. It's the nature of metals these days.
I'm currently buying both silver and gold as I don't expect to see this drop continue much longer.
He who hesitates is lost. I know people who waited for months to see gold drop back below $400 to make their buy. They're still waiting.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Hi Deadhorse,
Actually to see the gold market come down 20 dollars in a couple days, I find it very possible that another 20 dollars is in the future, the near future. I have been buying gold for a few years now, so either way I will be fine. Of course I would love to see it continue north, but "the force" tells me that we will see between $490 - $520. It may not be as soon as this week or next, but I feel we will see it by next month. At that point I will continue to buy.
Good luck to you !
Freak
Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate, PIW newsletter says, citing internal Kuwait records - Reuters
Sugar finishes at 25-year high of 17.15 cts/lb on tight supplies, fund buying - Reuters
March crude oil now trading at 68.80 +1.61
Israel says that Iran and Syria behind the bombing that injured 20-- CNBC
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"TEHRAN (AFX) - The governor of Iran's Central Bank has indicated that Tehran has already started shifting its foreign hard currency deposits to southeastern Asia amid the threat of sanctions,
Iranian hard currency reserves in foreign banks, mainly European banks, are valued at more than 36 billion usd.
U.S. stocks headed for their biggest losses in three months on earnings shortfalls and a surge in oil prices to more than $68 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wiped out almost all of its 2006 advance."
the legs for metals not the top. Gold at 550.00 over a 20 year period is considered cheap. Many things will happen global politically and here in our economy thet will push these metals into the stratosphere. Its going to take years not months. Just buy on the pullbacks and bottom price channels. Disclaimer: I am poor and in debt so my market "theories" thus far have not made me a member of the millionaires club. Hey, at least Im honest!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just to put into perspective the naz rallied 60 pts from its low on Jan 3, 2006. >>
I've been hearing the big money is short. So we may be seeing a lot more red days to come.
Here's what he said...
Israel will attack Iran
Gold and Oil are going to skyrocket.
GAE's are best because of the govt. history (private ownership of bullion fears), the value of U.S. paper, and the small cost over spot.(He wasn't selling any gold either...just silver collector coins).
Also, he opinioned that the .999 buffalo due out this year might be good but stay away from any 90% gold. I don't agree with for reasons stated below. He said to not own any foreign gold. I do agree with that but that's just my personal opinion.
He said the Chinese are buying gold big time, now. The govt. has allowed private ownership of gold and they are buying it all the way from the private individuals to the central bank.
He talked about the paper situation with all the govts. and gave the secret, gold bug mating call "But, Buy, Buy!"
The gold coin market seems to be cooking so I had decided to shed some stray gold coins if I could get a good price. One coin, a $10 indian common date in 63 went for $1350 and it was snapped up like a cold watermelon in a South Texas July, at twice what I got it for, less than a year ago. Same fare for the rest (5 coins). That's why I can't agree with the 90% gold call.
There were few $5 and $10 pre-'33 coins at the show, damn few. There were mounds and mounds of $20 libs there at the show. My opinion...If you are a collector of pre-'33 gold, you better get after it, it seems that it really just aren't abundant right now and this is part of what I've seen as a continuing trend. My other opinion, on gold coins is...buy, buy, buy, but buy smart.
Today's link from UPI
This is ungood news.