During the Great Depression Okies abandoned their homes to find opportunity in California. Due to their own hard work and drive they succeeded. Are we seeing a reverse migration away from the high taxes, endless folly and bankruptcy of Califiornia back to the heartland? If that is happening they'll find that Oklahoma is just about the reddest of the red States.
CAL gave the US two pretty conservative Presidents, like them or not. My instinct is that CAL is pretty conservative but to the outsider it doesn't appear so. That state is run by gerrymandered voting districts and will stay DEM until heads roll. Eventually that will happen. Just politics as usual.
The public employee unions run Sacramento and things are about to change in that department unless SAC. figures out how to print money. The borrowing binge is OVER.
I live on the Central Coast of California. The local town has 14.6% unemployment and the overcrowded schools are laying off teachers. Effectively California is bankrupt but there isn't a good way to declare bankruptcy. The Governor is laying off employees. The sales tax already went up one percent to a local rate of 8.75%.
Oh, the politicians are trying to block new oil drilling off the coast.
The guy who proposed a windmill farm on nearby hills is being blocked by ONE family who do not like the idea of windmills spoiling their views.
The roads are terrible and Santa Barbara has had its third fire IN THE CITY in the last year.
If you work for the state you make big bucks, get free health care and a fat retirement. If you don't then you work hard, struggle to keep employed and pay huge taxes so the state can pay thier own.
During the Great Depression Okies abandoned the homes to find opportunity in California. Due to their own hard work and drive they succeeded. Are we seeing a reverse migration away from the high taxes, endless folly and bankruptcy of Califiornia back to the heartland? If that is happening they'll find that Oklahoma is just about the reddest of the red States.
Edit for spelling >>
>>
Okies didn't move because of the depression, it was called the dust bowl. You could no longer make money living off the land which was how most people made money in those days. Hey you have to eat............
The downturn in home prices has left about 20% of U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than their homes are worth, according to one new study, signaling additional challenges to the Obama administration's efforts to stabilize the housing market.
The increase in the number of such "underwater" borrowers comes amid signs that falling prices are making homes more affordable for first-time buyers and others who have been shut out of the housing market. But falling prices also make it more difficult for homeowners who get into financial trouble to refinance or sell their homes, and for others to take advantage of lower interest rates.
For instance, fewer will qualify to take advantage of a key component of the Obama administration's plan to stabilize the housing market. Under the plan, announced in February, as many as five million homeowners whose loans are owned or guaranteed by government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can refinance their mortgages, but only if the mortgage loan is a maximum of 105% of the home's value.
Government officials are considering an increase in that limit.
Whatever that charted item is it looks like it has rebounded dramatically along with most everything else since the fall of 2008. Appears to have fully completed its corrective wave from the 454 bottom and is in a series of up legs to possibly retest that blue trend line. The tightening of the BB's seems to indicate much higher prices to come. MACD has been upsloping for some time and currently positive. Chart looks good imo though the scale crushes a lot of the action of the past 7 months into an accordian that's harder to decipher. It seems to coincide with the action of commodities over the past 6 years possibly a metal...but I don't recognize it (ie it's not gold, silver or plat). The ADX black trend line doesn't look good by itself but green is now crossing red. I would think that the stochastics would support an uptrend even if the ADX doesn't.
Considering that volume is undefined, it's not a tradeable fund....
One of the primary reasons why I believe that this recession is just in the third inning can be found in the housing market fiasco if you look beyond the first time homeowner re-entry stats. That re-entry is all well and good but my GUT INSTINCT is that a significant amount of people use their home equity to run their small biz and since that equity has evaporated for a lot of small risk takers....so has the small biz engine that it would entail.
The economy will not rebound, IMHO, until real estate rebounds in real terms and that fact combined with the changing age demo in this country means, IMHO, that we are a long ways off from the bottom. SIGNIFICANT RISK TAKERS ....aren't. SMALL RISK TAKERS....can't.
I'm not talking about a couple of hundred thousand people, like the entire pops of Connecticut but the pops of FL., CA., Tx. etc.---the states where biz starts and generates trends.
I probably screwed up when posting the chart by leaving the dates visable. It quickly became obvious to you that this was a commodity related chart since the dramatic and uninterrupted uptrend began in 2003 with all the commods. And knowing it was commodity related it probably clouded your judgement as you believe commods are going to continue to trade higher.
What I see here is a "broken" chart. The impressive uptrend came to a crashing end, falling over 50% in 6 months. It became oversold and rebounded almost 50% from its lows. This pattern usually resolves itself as a sideways continuation move that lasts for years, possibly as long as the uptrend lasted. The fact that it became so oversold is a sign of extreme weakness. The 50 week moving average has crossed below the 200 week average which also lends itself to sideways trading. My take on this chart is that it will be at the same levels 2-3 years from now while trading within the range currently being established.
The chart is of the CBOE Integrated Oil Index--$oix. It is comprised of the largest integrated oil companies. They-as a proxy for oil prices-, do not foretell of any inflationary pressures.
i spent a few minutes looking at the chart, got a headache and waited for the sage to speak, my only gist that is was some kind of commodity composite
good analysis
if the USD weakens what will happen to the chart?
much has been said about the support (strength) of the USD being about to tumble, yet compared to what? if everything else is in the tannk....the USD still looks good, right? something else has to strengthen or show a growing dominance, or something showing a growing dislike in USD. is this reasoning sound?
OH! Good News...It looks like the GM negotiations are going great!!! The govt. is considering forgiving the 15 BILLION DOLLARS of taxpayer money so that the company can survive. So, the unions and bond holders are gonna be OK after all, thank goodness. It's only 15 bill...it takes 1000 of 'em to even make a trillion.
I would disagree that oil has peaked at this point. That chart shows me 2 up legs with a 3rd yet to come. They will probably push oil up to $65, possibly $75 from here but I won't be onboard. I'd rather buy in when it completes its next multi-month major leg down. The way the stock market continues to pull everything along, I don't expect oil to peter out until at least mid-June. It will pull back a few times in small increments. It doesn't matter if there is no reason for this to happen due to supply gluts, etc. If the playerz want this to happen, and they have the billions in AIG money/TARP/TALF/etc to make it happen, so be it. While I think the DOW/S&P rally should be over it still looks like they want to run it a bit further into June. RA called for GS to peak out at 144.1 and it did exactly that today. Whether GS and the other banksters have additional life in this rally remains to be seen.
I'm not invested in any non-gold commodity stocks at this time. Maybe I'll catch them on the next pull back. I was surprised $copper made it back to $220 a second time. I'd be floored if it could do it a 3rd time and keep on going. Freeport McMoran has benefited quite well from that move tripling up in the process going from the teens into the 50's. There are safer bets out there than base commodities and industrial metals. The entire market is rigged so you place your bets and takes your chances.
Im not saying oil has peaked at this very moment. It may very well hit that downward sloping 50 week (also the 200 day) moving average near $65.
The point wasnt to predict the exact top of the oil market, but rather to predict inflationary pressures through something that would benefit from inflation. My conclusion from this chart--I could have used the copper chart as well--is that inflation will be very hard pressed to take root, unless it is fertilized via taxes.
FCX was a monster trade after fallling 87% in 5 months. It never should have dropped so much in the first place. Thats what happens with an overowned stock when someone screams "fire". It probably should have ended its skid in the 40s given its eanings this year. But next year as debt comes due and copper falls, it may very well test the teens again.
For all you guys who do not think inflation is here right now, go buy a basket of goods you use and mark the date and the price on the container of each item. When you reorder, check your prices. I have been doing this for 4 months. Inflation is here.
We've really been in a constant state of stagflation for the past 30-40 years. The prices of many things soared while many others stayed constant or tanked. Commodities weren't really part of the "flation" side of that until the past 6 years. They were the "stag" for most of 20 years. Regardless of the trend to deflate financial assets, prices of many things will soar whether it's health care, food, or even oil. It's all coming around again.
In the 1970's we didn't have hedge funds to increase trading 50X or 100X the base demand for a commodity. Today we do. Natural gas stocks have been trading at 34X the physical size of the natural gas actually used. I'm sure oil has been in the same boat. We still have trillions in funds looking for places to speculate, regardless of real demand. Just imagine what they will do in an area where there is a real and growing demand for a product or service. 50-1 leverage still seems to be the name of the game even when markets are broken. "You can't win the lottery if you don't play." Why are we satisified with only triple ETF's when 5X or 10X would produce even more gains for the winners?
Many commodities have had 50% corrections from 2008 peaks. This is not much different from what gold/silver/oil did from 1974-1975 when we entered a 2 year recession. I'm not so sure I would equate the recent down draft in commodities to what happened post-1980 rather than say post 1974. Whose to say which one is more realistic, esp since we are in unchartered territory with unregulated and non-transparent derivatives.
<< <i>For all you guys who do not think inflation is here right now, go buy a basket of goods you use and mark the date and the price on the container of each item. When you reorder, check your prices. I have been doing this for 4 months. Inflation is here. >>
Could you please cite some examples?
Milk and eggs in my area are at least 30% cheaper than a year ago.
There is a local bulder who is running radio ads stating that he is rolling back construction prices.
You can go to any car dealer and get a car at least 5% cheaper than you would have a year ago.
My wife and I were going to go to Europe last year but cancelled when flights were almost $1200. We just booked the same flights 2 weeks ago for $584.
You can buy a whole chicken at WalMart for $3.50. Enough for dinner for a family of 4, for only $3.50!!
Are prices in general higher than they were a 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago? Absolutely. My greatest fear is that this will correct.
Car insurance Health Insurance insurance deductibles co-pays for insurance Home insurance Property Taxes income taxes sales taxes tolls train tokens subway tokens Yankee Baseball tickets college tuition room and board at college books for college beer wine spirits movie tickets baby sitters summer camp sewer bill water bill cable bill cell phone bill electric bill gas bill postage car repair bill
down - things I spend 20% of my money on
homes property food clothes plane tickets cars gasoline computers electronics dinner out Land line phone
Overall, the big items are up, the little things are down (or things I rarely buy)
It's no surprise that things that have been massively inflated (ie chased up) in price are cheaper today.....homes, cars, electronic gadgets, appliances, land, stocks, industrial metals, oil, etc. are a lot cheaper today. There were too many of these items made or produced. In many cases the production process has been halted or slowed to allow supplies to match demand. This could take years in some cases. Luxuries and non-necessities such as vacations (ie air fare, lodging, restaurants, attractions) will of course suffer from people deciding to save more.
The few real dollars or wealth that remains will chase the goods that are in scarce supply and were never really made in overabundance during the roaring 2000's: food, quality health care services and products, quality educational products and services, postage and shipping fees, automobile repair services, etc. These will continue to go up in price because too many dollars will be chasing too few services/products.
Even FRN's could be considered a product getting scarcer as electronic money continues to overpower the actual paper. At some point in time there will increasing demand for the type of money that can be held in one's hand, and doesn't require a bank to be open to use it (ie cash, coins, bullion). But the printing presses can't possibly be run fast enough to keep up with the demand...unless denominations of $500, $1000, or $10,000 are authorized again. Wouldn't that be something? The reappearance of a $500 note would be an eye-opener to the public.
I look at Sol Palha and Cliff Droke as 2 analysts who understand the commodities/PM side of the markets but are well versed in all areas of trading stocks, bonds, currencies. These guys rarely go to one extreme or the other and are often bearish on the metals. This article from Sol is very sobering and is a basic roadmap on what will be in and what will be out in a few years. Excellent reading. But I was very surprised to see such an extreme view from Palha who tends to be very even keeled unless there is a good reason to say otherwise. Today JS came out and said "it is now" based on the fact that the US just recorded it's first negative budget number for April in 26 years. More and more I'm seeing articles that are urging the sheeple to get their things in order before time runs out. Sol's 3 points for today were to get liquid and keep some cash overseas in a foreign currency, sock away some bullion, and have commodity stocks in your portfolio. He sees a drastically changed world in less than 6 years. What was once up will be down and vice versa. He floored me when he said to maybe even put away some numismatic coins....like a Saint Gaudens $20. He mentions a premium of numismatic gold to bullion gold of up to 5X down the road. Since we have numismatic gold coins with up to 1000X or more the bullion value ($3 gold piece) I'm not sure what he was getting at. Even CAC MS66 Saints are worth 3x the price of bullion and deservedly so imo. A wheat cent costs 3X face value or thereabouts and is considered a good value by many tight-wadded collectors....but an MS66 saint is about 3X melt and typically seen as "overpriced" by your average collectors. The two are very comparable. If investment money wants to diversify what would they buy, a barrel of wheat cents or 1 MS66 CAC'd saint? Based on how few MS65 saints meet CAC standards (eg about 1 out of 10+) an MS66 saint is a darn nice coin and not all that far from average 67's.
Palha basically states that the price of many commodities and hard assets will become too high to be believed at this time. If this was coming from your typical 99% bullish gold bug, it would be expected and quickly rejected. But from Palha or Droke this is way outside his norm. Something to consider.
dbcoin, I have one more to add to your 'up' list.....
Your credit card account. The new law that just passed today, it is expected that the cc companies are now going to start charging interest starting the day the charge is made. Even for the ones that have always paid on time and in full each month. You will now probably get to pay interest (to subsidize the bad risk cc holders that are not paying their bills)
Ah, yes comrade..... it just keeps getting better and better!
Speaking of our economy... can someone explain to me.......
....... how closing down 1,000 car dealerships will save the auto companies? It would seem to me that..... if there are less places available to purchase the cars... that perhaps they will end up selling even less? What am I missing???
....... and since when is it ok to take one persons business away, that they paid for and had for years...... and give to someone else??? (the car dealerships).
....... and can someone explain how the new gas mileage standards that have passed will help this country? 30 mpg average per truck and 39 mpg average per car..... in what, around 8 years from now? Guess we will all be forced to drive little two seater tin cans......
My sales tax just went from 7.75% to 9.75 %. looks like about 25% ----That is after my 50+ % fed/state/ssn. My registration on one vehicle just went from a little under $300 a year to $580. An old truck toboot. Gas has gone from $1.80 to $2.50 in the last couple of months. The city where I have a warehouse...where I pay about $20 a month for a very small usage for lights, just tacked on a $50 per month meter reading surcharge PER MONTH.
YOU need to come out of the chart room and start experiencing the world from a business stand point. Not a residential consumer stand point.
I'll give ayou a consumer reference. I used to purchase VIVA paper towels at Wally World. They were 98 cents for 39 sq. ft. up till about 1 month ago. Then Wally world disco'd them. Now I go to the local supermarket and buy 6 roll packages for $8.99 + 9.75% sales tax. That's almost 10 bucks for paper towels. We go through about a roll a day at the shop. Transactions like this make me take notice at the rate of inflation.
I'm afraid you haven't seen anything yet.
Now if I needed to buy a used car right now, no problem. If I needed to buy a house or lease a commercial building, again no problem. BUT I DON'T need to right now. So if these last three factors are figured into the "INFLATION RATE", well I guess it would show very little inflation.
Have a good time in Europe. Wait til you buy a meal in London. A little advice, bring your own food. How about $100 for a spaghetti dinner in Italy or a $40 breakfast in London. Be Prepared.
I've been to Europe 5 times in the last 6 years. I know how much a meal costs, how much a rental car costs, how much hotels cost, ect. When were you last there?
Most of the examples you stated I dont consider to be inflation as I dont view taxes as inflation even though they are added costs. You mention prices going up all they time yet you cite 1x events. A sales tax increase, a truck registration, which at $580 I believe is WAY OUT of the consumer examples I wanted you to mention. I assume this for a big rig? Gasoline is up in the last 6 months, it is also 1/2 of what it was a year ago and inflation adjusted is cheaper than 115 years ago.
A surcharge on electricity is not inflation but rather a tax. What are you paying per Kwh from last year? I am paying almost 40% less.
The paper towel example is not good either as you are substituting one good for another. Its like saying you cant buy a Honda now, so you have to buy a Mercedes.
I agree that if we include taxes as inflation then yes we havent seen anything yet. I did stop at a MCDonalds today for the first time in 2 years. I was amazed at the price of a Big Mac Meal. I spoke to the person at the window and they said prices were up cuz the minimum wage was increased. This, IMHO, is TRUE inflation.
I feel really sorry for guys in Cali. I think you're all screwed and since Cali is such a major economy it will pull the rest of the country down with it. And as the goes the USA so goes the rest of the world's economies.
And as far as the chartroom comment, I'll stay right where I'm at cuz the only real inflation I see is in my trading account. The chartreading BTW, I have been trying to teach, but through arrogance or ignorance many dismiss as voodoo or hocus pocus. Saying I need to come out of my living is akin to me saying you need to live in Alabama for a while. You'ld be amazed how cheap it is to live there compared to Cali.
If we do have this so-called hyperinflation, then prepared for your business to fail along with 90% of all other business as no one will be able to afford anything.
I'm not going to try to pick a fight but.... then don't. I'm not in a bunker reading charts and trying to figure out the next stock deal. I just manufacture things and speak from a hands on experience. If you chose not to believe me...oh well.
As for HYPERINFLATION...I don't know if that is going to happen, but inflation is here. And as for 90% of the business' failing...you might just have a point. A lot of the banks and car company's have failed but were given so much money that they are still breathing. I can think of a major Insurance co. that failed. California needs ch. 9. Soon most pension funds that weren't soundly managed will fail. The SP has rebounded on no good news and no earnings rebounds other than paper profits. There is a major liquidity crises in the business community right now. In Cal. the new shopping trend is to look through your old purchases that you never opened.
As for Europe, have a nice trip. I can't stand the place or the prevailing attitude. 30 years ago was enough.
We have always said around here that when the mainstream media starts talking about what we have said for the last several years the end cannot be far off.
Is it time to accelerate our plans?
Dollar Is Dirt, Treasuries Are Toast, AAA Is Gone: Mark Gilbert
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The odds on the dollar, Treasury bonds and the U.S. government’s AAA grade all heading for the dumpster are shortening.
Several policy missteps suggest that investors should stop trusting -- and lending to -- the U.S. government. These include the state’s pressure on Bank of America Corp. to buy Merrill Lynch & Co.; the priority given to Chrysler LLC’s unions over the automaker’s secured creditors; and the freedom that some banks will regain to supersize executive bonuses by giving back part of the government money bolstering their balance sheets.
“All currencies are being debased dramatically by their central banks at extraordinary speeds and so in relative terms it appears there is no currency problem,” Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management said in a research note earlier this month. “In reality, however, paper money is highly vulnerable to a public catalyst that serves to acknowledge it is all merely vapor money.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. reported the first budget deficit for April in 26 years, with spending exceeding revenue by $20.9 billion, even though that’s the month when taxpayers have to stump up to the Internal Revenue Service and the government’s coffers should be overflowing. So far this fiscal year, the U.S. shortfall is $802.3 billion, more than five times the $153.5 billion gap in the year-earlier period.
For the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts a record deficit of $1.75 trillion, almost four times the previous year’s $454.8 billion shortfall and about 13 percent of gross domestic product. Bear in mind that the target demanded of European nations wanting to join the euro was a deficit no greater than 3 percent of GDP.
David Walker, a former U.S. comptroller general, wrote in the Financial Times on May 12 that the U.S.’s top credit rating looks incompatible with “an accumulated negative net worth” of more than $11 trillion and “additional off-balance-sheet obligations” of $45 trillion. “One could even argue that our government does not deserve a triple A credit rating based on our current financial condition, structural fiscal imbalances and political stalemate,”
Well, spent a little time yesterday going to shops, looking for .380 and in a word...NONE! The last guy I talked to, my go to guy for hard to find items, said that "something is going on" but he didn't know (or wasn't saying) just what it is. So, probably the same way all over Houston and if you are shooting a .380 you better get what you can right now because when I asked each shop when they would expect to get some the unanamous response is that there isn't any to order. .223 was relatively plentiful.
I would like to take a moment of silence and pray for the CU members living in California.
I've lived most of my life in Southern Cal and Central Coast (1965-2005) and hate to see the politicians incrementally destroy a wonderful state.
I've heard the "land of fruits and nuts" all my life and just smiled because I knew they didn't get it.
Arnie won't be able to cut and repay his way out of this mess.
I think the only recourse is a federal bailout...which would be a horrible precedent. Taxation without representation comes to mind. If this happens it will only galvanized a movement already underfoot.
There is always a state-wide bake sale. This snippet from Warren Bevan's article today:
I realize some of the shenanigans going on that I write about are hard to believe but fast becoming much more believable. I have one that you may really have a hard time believing. I’ve talked about California’s financial troubles in the past but now they may have reverted to third grade and come up with a solution. Arnold Schwarzeneggar announced a state wide bake sale to help the states worsening budget deficit. The logistics behind this will likely cost much more than they can pull in, after all it’s not your child class of 20 little boppers, it’s a state of almost 37 million people. That’s more than all of Canada, eh!
I have no idea where they come up with these ideas but support is there. Schwarzeneggar said; “We can have the brownies, and the cupcakes with the sprinkles and the jimmies, and the little muffins with the nuts and the banana and bran. And we can make the bundt cake and the angel food and even the pies. Really there are a range of possibilities where we can go with this thing.” State assembly speaker Nunez said; “I think this is an excellent and very creative idea and I applaud the Governor on his leadership in this difficult time. I, myself, like to bake and look forward to contributing something to the Bake Sale,”
My favorite are the Tollhouse chocolate chip cookies.
GOLDSAINT -- I saw David Walker speak a few weeks ago; he is very much worth seeing, because he has excellent credentials, and is not a political extremist or fear-monger. He is very concerned that we are nearing the point of no-return that leads to default via inflation.
His most interesting comment -- he feels the ultimate litmus test of whether we have gone over the brink is the following: how our leaders deal with health care reform. He says, very simply, that if Washington passes health care legislation that is not fully funded (for example, via a national consumption tax), we have gone over the brink. He has the natural concern that we will mandate dramatic new benefits, and claim to be able to pay for them with smoke and mirrrors (reduced admin cost, preventive care, tax on a few items like cigarettes and soda pop, etc)
Come with me to Europe sometime. We'll gave a great time. Stay away from the big cities--I HATE the cities-- and you will find people just like us. They just want to be left alone.
There are 2 ways I see that we can have inflation. One is tax and fee induced, the other a supply/demand problem. I think the latter is unlikely given the massive deleveraging, credit withdrawal and excess capacity.
The former is a possibility as the local, state and federal Govts scramble to maintain spending. The increased fees and taxes will further supress economic activity thus reducing inflationary pressures. The best case scenerio is probably a stalemate rather than deflation.
I am not sure that PMs will perform as well in a tax and fee based inflation as they would in a supply/demand inflation.
Just so that you do not completely underestimate me, I wrote my senior thesis on the stock market for Prof. Steven Roulac in 1975.
I may have been born at night but it wasn't last night.
1. I do not believe, at this time, that the stock market is a place to store your wealth. 2. I believe that in the history of this country, there have been THREE times when people wished that they had their possessions very close to them and had better prepared for catastrophe. A. During the American Revolution. B. During the American Civil War. C. During the Great Depression. I have been hit over the head pretty hard by a rather hardnosed father that lived during the Great Depression and his lessons are and have been, pretty close to me. Each of these time periods is about 70-80 years apart. It's coincidentially been about 70-80 years since the last EVENT.
I manufacture about 50 items for the automotive aftermarket and I usually have 30-50 items on the drawing board with a lead time of 1-3 years. My drawing board is CLOSED for the duration. Last month I had to let two studs go. That bothers me because although these guys will end up on their feet, it will be somewhere else. I just cannot pay for the ancilliary costs of keeping them around. And I remind you, I'm still standing but I have seen a lot fall the last two years. I may or may not be standing 6 months from now.
As for European vacations, I get more thrill at having people tell me that they had a good time than would get if I had to go. I did not enjoy driving there, I do not enjoy riding on the train with people who bathe infrequently, I do not enjoy their condescending attitude and I do not enjoy spending money to further their economy.
As for my vacations, infrequently as they are..........I am a west of the Rockies type of guy. While you enjoy Europe on a mostly yearly basis, I enjoy southern Orange County almost nightly. May I recommend, Ketchum, Idaho. Also North Shore Lake Tahoe in August on Tue, Wed, Thurs only and Graegle, CAL. for future destinations if you wish to enjoy the American experience. And a lot more reasonable than Europe I might add. English spoken politely at all three
I make my products in this country, I spend my money here and I will retire and give people hell on bullitin boards from an ISP within the U.S.
carry on
May I add, one other item that I forgot to add to the inflation list. 30 caliber. A box just cost me $29.87 + TAX. I have not been able to locate 38spl or .357 for a long time, pls PM if you know whereabouts.
Well, spent a little time yesterday going to shops, looking for .380 and in a word...NONE! The last guy I talked to, my go to guy for hard to find items, said that "something is going on" but he didn't know (or wasn't saying) just what it is. So, probably the same way all over Houston and if you are shooting a .380 you better get what you can right now because when I asked each shop when they would expect to get some the unanamous response is that there isn't any to order. .223 was relatively plentiful.
This has been my experience as well for at least the last 6 months... (Connecticut) .223 is plentiful but (.40 SW, 9mm, .380) forget about it.
Any theories as to "what's going on"? Why can't the ammo manufacturers keep up with the demand? Or are there other issues???
coho, Most of the examples you stated I dont consider to be inflation as I dont view taxes as inflation even though they are added costs. You mention prices going up all they time yet you cite 1x events. A sales tax increase, a truck registration, which at $580 I believe is WAY OUT of the consumer examples I wanted you to mention. I assume this for a big rig? Gasoline is up in the last 6 months, it is also 1/2 of what it was a year ago and inflation adjusted is cheaper than 115 years ago. This is for a 10 yr old chevy with a weight fee. A big rig?, I'd have to mortgage the crib. Sorry for not listing examples from memory that jibe with the OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT STANDARDS. I love to be the one in charge of the OFFICIAL list. It seems to me, the OFFICIAL list was meant to keep SS COL's under control, not to be used as accurately portraying what the heck is really happening.
A surcharge on electricity is not inflation but rather a tax. What are you paying per Kwh from last year? I am paying almost 40% less. A rose by any other name is a rose. I believe I am in excess of 20 cents a KWH. They couldn't raise the rates by statute so they used this fee as a way to get around the law.
The paper towel example is not good either as you are substituting one good for another. Its like saying you cant buy a Honda now, so you have to buy a Mercedes. You are incorrect O mighty one. It is a perfect example. I used to buy a weeks supply went I went Ammo hunting. I used to pay about $1.06 per week for VIVA. Wally World disco's items for two reasons....they aren't moving or they cannot control the price. In this case Kimberly-Clark and Wally World bid each other adieu. I now pay almost $10 for 6 weeks supply of the same item. It is only sold 6/ now instead on 1/ like it formerly was. I would say it is spot on. Other items I purchase like copper, nickel and Chromium fluctuate and MAYBE I should learn to overlay charts to figure out if things are going up. Whoops, I just looked at my check book....things ARE going up. Dang it. While you are posting charts, please post this one. Number of illegals gov't admits have come into the U.S. since 1980. And overlay it with this one...Number of federally financed abortions in the same time period ---(that would have been American workers if not aborted). Do you see ANY correlation?
Oh, BTW, gas went to $2.70 overnight....it's still not as high as it was so it doesn't count
Never once have I said the stock market is a place to "store" wealth. In fact, I have stated probably 100x in this thread that I believe ALL assets classes are for "dating" only. I dont not believe anything is a good store of wealth, except perhaps our kids.
As far as educational background I wrote my honors thesis at Syracuse on the -at the time--upcoming European Union and the integration of the Eastern Bloc countries. I wish I had parked some money in Poland or Czech Republic in 1991.
When I am in Europe I do not ride the train or hang out with the uncleansed. More importantly, I believe one can get a much greater appreciation for what we have in this country by seeing how the rest of the world lives. Contrary to what you hear in the media, most of the World loves the USA, especially the Chinese.
As far as travel within our own country, I do that almost every year also. Toured the SW 3 years ago, except S. Cali--WAY too many people there for me. I could never ride the subway next to Mr. Stinky in LA. Been to the Sierra Nevadas twice, lovely area. Last year I toured the Pacific Northwest, also a lovely area once you get out of the cities. Been to the Rockies and Montana/Idaho/Wyoming 3x. Been to almost every province in Canada including Alberta 3x from Calgary to Ft. Chipewan. Unfortunately my wife drags me to Florida every year also. So as far as seeing this country, well, I have seen most of it and like most of it. I do not agree with the politcal and socio-economic course this country has taken and am seriously considering moving to a country similiar in land size to Cali, but with 1/10th the population. The problems in this Country can only be solved over time, and since I am probably more than 1/2 dead, it is not time I want to waste.
Wow gold in ATM machines, now this is modern shopping!
Achtung, German (Gold) Shoppers! May 20th 2009
The largest investors in coins and bars this week was in Germany, where inflationary fears saw demand quadruple to 59 tonnes, while Swiss growth was even higher at 437%, taking it into second place at 39 tonnes. The US came in third, more than doubling to 27 tonnes as investors hedged against financial and economic risk. Countries such as Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand turned into net disinvetors during the period. Oh, if one could peer into the psyche of the average buyer and/or seller...For our money, Western buyers are typically about as far behind the curve as the Fed has been on inflation and/or deflation. Eastern buyers have had the edge...but we cannot put our finger on the origin of their sense of timing and value. It must be an intuitive thing.
Little wonder then, Â that entrepreneurial German spirits are seizing on the opportunity presented by local demand and are introducing...gold-dispensing ATM machines in that country. Nice idea. Nice, that is, if you do not mind parting with your hard-earned euros for a one gram gold ingot that sells for a 30% premium above spot gold. Gold, for $1200 an ounce? This, at a time when you can buy the same gold nearly at spot in the form of ETFs and pool accounts, at between 1 and 3 percent above spot for safekeeping accounts (Perth Mint, GoldMoney), or at between 5 and 8 percent above spot for major one-ounce coins?
Comments
Amid Pension Pressure, Trucking Company Plans to Request $1 Billion in U.S. Aid
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
CAL gave the US two pretty conservative Presidents, like them or not.
My instinct is that CAL is pretty conservative but to the outsider it doesn't appear so. That state is run by gerrymandered voting districts and will stay DEM until heads roll. Eventually that will happen. Just politics as usual.
The public employee unions run Sacramento and things are about to change in that department unless SAC. figures out how to print money. The borrowing binge is OVER.
I live on the Central Coast of California. The local town has 14.6% unemployment and the overcrowded schools are laying off teachers. Effectively California is bankrupt but there isn't a good way to declare bankruptcy. The Governor is laying off employees. The sales tax already went up one percent to a local rate of 8.75%.
Oh, the politicians are trying to block new oil drilling off the coast.
The guy who proposed a windmill farm on nearby hills is being blocked by ONE family who do not like the idea of windmills spoiling their views.
The roads are terrible and Santa Barbara has had its third fire IN THE CITY in the last year.
I wonder when things will turn around....
What is a little wierd about this is that lots of trends move east from CA.
"Do you know what happened back in 1850, 159 years ago?
California became a state.
The State had no electricity.
The State had no money.
Almost everyone spoke Spanish.
There were gunfights in the streets.
So basically, it was just like it is today."
The Government pretends to pay the workers and the
workers pretend that they are actually working. Everyone
is happy and drink a lot of cheap vodka.
Camelot
"If you have vodka, we will find a reason to drink it."
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
California HAS the old Soviet style system.
If you work for the state you make big bucks, get free health care and a fat retirement. If you don't then you work hard, struggle to keep employed and pay huge taxes so the state can pay thier own.
Pass the vodka please.
<< <i>
<< <i>
During the Great Depression Okies abandoned the homes to find opportunity in California. Due to their own hard work and drive they succeeded. Are we seeing a reverse migration away from the high taxes, endless folly and bankruptcy of Califiornia back to the heartland? If that is happening they'll find that Oklahoma is just about the reddest of the red States.
Edit for spelling >>
Okies didn't move because of the depression, it was called the dust bowl. You could no longer make money living off the land which was how most people made money in those days. Hey you have to eat............
Eating the dirt is the answer. Of
course, vodka would tend to help.
Camelot
"Some of these schemes look in severe peril.”
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You can learn to live off the land.
Eating the dirt is the answer. Of
course, vodka would tend to help. >>
Hmmmm.....vodka and honey......is that any good?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The downturn in home prices has left about 20% of U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than their homes are worth, according to one new study, signaling additional challenges to the Obama administration's efforts to stabilize the housing market.
The increase in the number of such "underwater" borrowers comes amid signs that falling prices are making homes more affordable for first-time buyers and others who have been shut out of the housing market. But falling prices also make it more difficult for homeowners who get into financial trouble to refinance or sell their homes, and for others to take advantage of lower interest rates.
For instance, fewer will qualify to take advantage of a key component of the Obama administration's plan to stabilize the housing market. Under the plan, announced in February, as many as five million homeowners whose loans are owned or guaranteed by government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can refinance their mortgages, but only if the mortgage loan is a maximum of 105% of the home's value.
Government officials are considering an increase in that limit.
House-Price Drops Leave More Underwater
An increase in that limit? Why not just nationalize all property, call it "the peoples" property and stop with the word games already
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Whatever that charted item is it looks like it has rebounded dramatically along with most everything else since the fall of 2008. Appears to have fully completed its corrective wave from the 454 bottom and is in a series of up legs to possibly retest that blue trend line. The tightening of the BB's seems to indicate much higher prices to come. MACD has been upsloping for some time and currently positive. Chart looks good imo though the scale crushes a lot of the action of the past 7 months into an accordian that's harder to decipher. It seems to coincide with the action of commodities over the past 6 years possibly a metal...but I don't recognize it (ie it's not gold, silver or plat). The ADX black trend line doesn't look good by itself but green is now crossing red. I would think that the stochastics would support an uptrend even if the ADX doesn't.
Considering that volume is undefined, it's not a tradeable fund....
roadrunner
One of the primary reasons why I believe that this recession is just in the third inning can be found in the housing market fiasco if you look beyond the first time homeowner re-entry stats. That re-entry is all well and good but my GUT INSTINCT is that a significant amount of people use their home equity to run their small biz and since that equity has evaporated for a lot of small risk takers....so has the small biz engine that it would entail.
The economy will not rebound, IMHO, until real estate rebounds in real terms and that fact combined with the changing age demo in this country means, IMHO, that we are a long ways off from the bottom. SIGNIFICANT RISK TAKERS ....aren't. SMALL RISK TAKERS....can't.
I'm not talking about a couple of hundred thousand people, like the entire pops of Connecticut
I probably screwed up when posting the chart by leaving the dates visable. It quickly became obvious to you that this was a commodity related chart since the dramatic and uninterrupted uptrend began in 2003 with all the commods. And knowing it was commodity related it probably clouded your judgement as you believe commods are going to continue to trade higher.
What I see here is a "broken" chart. The impressive uptrend came to a crashing end, falling over 50% in 6 months. It became oversold and rebounded almost 50% from its lows. This pattern usually resolves itself as a sideways continuation move that lasts for years, possibly as long as the uptrend lasted. The fact that it became so oversold is a sign of extreme weakness. The 50 week moving average has crossed below the 200 week average which also lends itself to sideways trading. My take on this chart is that it will be at the same levels 2-3 years from now while trading within the range currently being established.
The chart is of the CBOE Integrated Oil Index--$oix. It is comprised of the largest integrated oil companies. They-as a proxy for oil prices-, do not foretell of any inflationary pressures.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
i spent a few minutes looking at the chart, got a headache and waited for the sage to speak, my only gist that is was some kind of commodity composite
good analysis
if the USD weakens what will happen to the chart?
much has been said about the support (strength) of the USD being about to tumble, yet compared to what? if everything else is in the tannk....the USD still looks good, right? something else has to strengthen or show a growing dominance, or something showing a growing dislike in USD. is this reasoning sound?
It's GUESS THE CHART
I would disagree that oil has peaked at this point. That chart shows me 2 up legs with a 3rd yet to come. They will probably push oil up to $65, possibly $75 from here but I won't be onboard. I'd rather buy in when it completes its next multi-month major leg down. The way the stock market continues to pull everything along, I don't expect oil to peter out until at least mid-June. It will pull back a few times in small increments. It doesn't matter if there is no reason for this to happen due to supply gluts, etc. If the playerz want this to happen, and they have the billions in AIG money/TARP/TALF/etc to make it happen, so be it. While I think the DOW/S&P rally should be over it still looks like they want to run it a bit further into June. RA called for GS to peak out at 144.1 and it did exactly that today. Whether GS and the other banksters have additional life in this rally remains to be seen.
I'm not invested in any non-gold commodity stocks at this time. Maybe I'll catch them on the next pull back. I was surprised $copper made it back to $220 a second time. I'd be floored if it could do it a 3rd time and keep on going. Freeport McMoran has benefited quite well from that move tripling up in the process going from the teens into the 50's. There are safer bets out there than base commodities and industrial metals. The entire market is rigged so you place your bets and takes your chances.
roadrunner
The point wasnt to predict the exact top of the oil market, but rather to predict inflationary pressures through something that would benefit from inflation. My conclusion from this chart--I could have used the copper chart as well--is that inflation will be very hard pressed to take root, unless it is fertilized via taxes.
FCX was a monster trade after fallling 87% in 5 months. It never should have dropped so much in the first place. Thats what happens with an overowned stock when someone screams "fire". It probably should have ended its skid in the 40s given its eanings this year. But next year as debt comes due and copper falls, it may very well test the teens again.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In the 1970's we didn't have hedge funds to increase trading 50X or 100X the base demand for a commodity. Today we do. Natural gas stocks have been trading at 34X the physical size of the natural gas actually used. I'm sure oil has been in the same boat. We still have trillions in funds looking for places to speculate, regardless of real demand. Just imagine what they will do in an area where there is a real and growing demand for a product or service. 50-1 leverage still seems to be the name of the game even when markets are broken. "You can't win the lottery if you don't play." Why are we satisified with only triple ETF's when 5X or 10X would produce even more gains for the winners?
Many commodities have had 50% corrections from 2008 peaks. This is not much different from what gold/silver/oil did from 1974-1975 when we entered a 2 year recession. I'm not so sure I would equate the recent down draft in commodities to what happened post-1980 rather than say post 1974. Whose to say which one is more realistic, esp since we are in unchartered territory with unregulated and non-transparent derivatives.
roadrunner
<< <i>For all you guys who do not think inflation is here right now, go buy a basket of goods you use and mark the date and the price on the container of each item. When you reorder, check your prices. I have been doing this for 4 months. Inflation is here. >>
Could you please cite some examples?
Milk and eggs in my area are at least 30% cheaper than a year ago.
There is a local bulder who is running radio ads stating that he is rolling back construction prices.
You can go to any car dealer and get a car at least 5% cheaper than you would have a year ago.
My wife and I were going to go to Europe last year but cancelled when flights were almost $1200. We just booked the same flights 2 weeks ago for $584.
You can buy a whole chicken at WalMart for $3.50. Enough for dinner for a family of 4, for only $3.50!!
Are prices in general higher than they were a 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago? Absolutely. My greatest fear is that this will correct.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Car insurance
Health Insurance
insurance deductibles
co-pays for insurance
Home insurance
Property Taxes
income taxes
sales taxes
tolls
train tokens
subway tokens
Yankee Baseball tickets
college tuition
room and board at college
books for college
beer
wine
spirits
movie tickets
baby sitters
summer camp
sewer bill
water bill
cable bill
cell phone bill
electric bill
gas bill
postage
car repair bill
down - things I spend 20% of my money on
homes
property
food
clothes
plane tickets
cars
gasoline
computers
electronics
dinner out
Land line phone
Overall, the big items are up, the little things are down (or things I rarely buy)
The few real dollars or wealth that remains will chase the goods that are in scarce supply and were never really made in overabundance during the roaring 2000's: food, quality health care services and products, quality educational products and services, postage and shipping fees, automobile repair services, etc. These will continue to go up in price because too many dollars will be chasing too few services/products.
Even FRN's could be considered a product getting scarcer as electronic money continues to overpower the actual paper. At some point in time there will increasing demand for the type of money that can be held in one's hand, and doesn't require a bank to be open to use it (ie cash, coins, bullion). But the printing presses can't possibly be run fast enough to keep up with the demand...unless denominations of $500, $1000, or $10,000 are authorized again. Wouldn't that be something? The reappearance of a $500 note would be an eye-opener to the public.
Sol Palha on coming hyperinflation in 3-6 yrs
I look at Sol Palha and Cliff Droke as 2 analysts who understand the commodities/PM side of the markets but are well versed in all areas of trading stocks, bonds, currencies. These guys rarely go to one extreme or the other and are often bearish on the metals. This article from Sol is very sobering and is a basic roadmap on what will be in and what will be out in a few years. Excellent reading. But I was very surprised to see such an extreme view from Palha who tends to be very even keeled unless there is a good reason to say otherwise. Today JS came out and said "it is now" based on the fact that the US just recorded it's first negative budget number for April in 26 years. More and more I'm seeing articles that are urging the sheeple to get their things in order before time runs out. Sol's 3 points for today were to get liquid and keep some cash overseas in a foreign currency, sock away some bullion, and have commodity stocks in your portfolio. He sees a drastically changed world in less than 6 years. What was once up will be down and vice versa. He floored me when he said to maybe even put away some numismatic coins....like a Saint Gaudens $20. He mentions a premium of numismatic gold to bullion gold of up to 5X down the road. Since we have numismatic gold coins with up to 1000X or more the bullion value ($3 gold piece) I'm not sure what he was getting at. Even CAC MS66 Saints are worth 3x the price of bullion and deservedly so imo. A wheat cent costs 3X face value or thereabouts and is considered a good value by many tight-wadded collectors....but an MS66 saint is about 3X melt and typically seen as "overpriced" by your average collectors. The two are very comparable. If investment money wants to diversify what would they buy, a barrel of wheat cents or 1 MS66 CAC'd saint? Based on how few MS65 saints meet CAC standards (eg about 1 out of 10+) an MS66 saint is a darn nice coin and not all that far from average 67's.
Palha basically states that the price of many commodities and hard assets will become too high to be believed at this time. If this was coming from your typical 99% bullish gold bug, it would be expected and quickly rejected. But from Palha or Droke this is way outside his norm. Something to consider.
roadrunner
Your credit card account. The new law that just passed today, it is expected that the cc companies are now going to start charging interest starting the day the charge is made. Even for the ones that have always paid on time and in full each month. You will now probably get to pay interest (to subsidize the bad risk cc holders that are not paying their bills)
Ah, yes comrade..... it just keeps getting better and better!
....... how closing down 1,000 car dealerships will save the auto companies? It would seem to me that..... if there are less places available to purchase the cars... that perhaps they will end up selling even less? What am I missing???
....... and since when is it ok to take one persons business away, that they paid for and had for years...... and give to someone else??? (the car dealerships).
....... and can someone explain how the new gas mileage standards that have passed will help this country? 30 mpg average per truck and 39 mpg average per car..... in what, around 8 years from now? Guess we will all be forced to drive little two seater tin cans......
Carry on comrades.... buy gold and silver!!
Could you please cite some examples?
OK I will.
My sales tax just went from 7.75% to 9.75 %. looks like about 25% ----That is after my 50+ % fed/state/ssn.
My registration on one vehicle just went from a little under $300 a year to $580. An old truck toboot.
Gas has gone from $1.80 to $2.50 in the last couple of months.
The city where I have a warehouse...where I pay about $20 a month for a very small usage for lights, just tacked on a $50 per month meter reading surcharge PER MONTH.
YOU need to come out of the chart room and start experiencing the world from a business stand point. Not a residential consumer stand point.
I'll give ayou a consumer reference. I used to purchase VIVA paper towels at Wally World. They were 98 cents for 39 sq. ft. up till about 1 month ago. Then Wally world disco'd them. Now I go to the local supermarket and buy 6 roll packages for $8.99 + 9.75% sales tax. That's almost 10 bucks for paper towels. We go through about a roll a day at the shop. Transactions like this make me take notice at the rate of inflation.
I'm afraid you haven't seen anything yet.
Now if I needed to buy a used car right now, no problem. If I needed to buy a house or lease a commercial building, again no problem. BUT I DON'T need to right now. So if these last three factors are figured into the "INFLATION RATE", well I guess it would show very little inflation.
Have a good time in Europe. Wait til you buy a meal in London. A little advice, bring your own food. How about $100 for a spaghetti dinner in Italy or a $40 breakfast in London. Be Prepared.
I'm not going to try to pick a fight but....
I've been to Europe 5 times in the last 6 years. I know how much a meal costs, how much a rental car costs, how much hotels cost, ect. When were you last there?
Most of the examples you stated I dont consider to be inflation as I dont view taxes as inflation even though they are added costs. You mention prices going up all they time yet you cite 1x events. A sales tax increase, a truck registration, which at $580 I believe is WAY OUT of the consumer examples I wanted you to mention. I assume this for a big rig? Gasoline is up in the last 6 months, it is also 1/2 of what it was a year ago and inflation adjusted is cheaper than 115 years ago.
A surcharge on electricity is not inflation but rather a tax. What are you paying per Kwh from last year? I am paying almost 40% less.
The paper towel example is not good either as you are substituting one good for another. Its like saying you cant buy a Honda now, so you have to buy a Mercedes.
I agree that if we include taxes as inflation then yes we havent seen anything yet. I did stop at a MCDonalds today for the first time in 2 years. I was amazed at the price of a Big Mac Meal. I spoke to the person at the window and they said prices were up cuz the minimum wage was increased. This, IMHO, is TRUE inflation.
I feel really sorry for guys in Cali. I think you're all screwed and since Cali is such a major economy it will pull the rest of the country down with it. And as the goes the USA so goes the rest of the world's economies.
And as far as the chartroom comment, I'll stay right where I'm at cuz the only real inflation I see is in my trading account.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thanks for the Palha link.
Cogent reasoning for a change.
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
If we do have this so-called hyperinflation, then prepared for your business to fail along with 90% of all other business as no one will be able to afford anything.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
then don't. I'm not in a bunker reading charts and trying to figure out the next stock deal. I just manufacture things and speak from a hands on experience. If you chose not to believe me...oh well.
As for HYPERINFLATION...I don't know if that is going to happen, but inflation is here. And as for 90% of the business' failing...you might just have a point. A lot of the banks and car company's have failed but were given so much money that they are still breathing. I can think of a major Insurance co. that failed. California needs ch. 9. Soon most pension funds that weren't soundly managed will fail. The SP has rebounded on no good news and no earnings rebounds other than paper profits. There is a major liquidity crises in the business community right now. In Cal. the new shopping trend is to look through your old purchases that you never opened.
As for Europe, have a nice trip. I can't stand the place or the prevailing attitude. 30 years ago was enough.
I prefer hawaii.
<< <i>Up - things that I spend 80% of my money on >>
If your like most Americans you spend well over half your money on the BIG 3, taxes, interest and insurance.
All 3 are SCAMS controlled by bankers, lawyers and politicians and designed to take your money and provide you with little in return.
We have always said around here that when the mainstream media starts talking about what we have said for the last several years the end cannot be far off.
Is it time to accelerate our plans?
Dollar Is Dirt, Treasuries Are Toast, AAA Is Gone: Mark Gilbert
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The odds on the dollar, Treasury bonds and the U.S. government’s AAA grade all heading for the dumpster are shortening.
Several policy missteps suggest that investors should stop trusting -- and lending to -- the U.S. government. These include the state’s pressure on Bank of America Corp. to buy Merrill Lynch & Co.; the priority given to Chrysler LLC’s unions over the automaker’s secured creditors; and the freedom that some banks will regain to supersize executive bonuses by giving back part of the government money bolstering their balance sheets.
“All currencies are being debased dramatically by their central banks at extraordinary speeds and so in relative terms it appears there is no currency problem,” Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management said in a research note earlier this month. “In reality, however, paper money is highly vulnerable to a public catalyst that serves to acknowledge it is all merely vapor money.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. reported the first budget deficit for April in 26 years, with spending exceeding revenue by $20.9 billion, even though that’s the month when taxpayers have to stump up to the Internal Revenue Service and the government’s coffers should be overflowing. So far this fiscal year, the U.S. shortfall is $802.3 billion, more than five times the $153.5 billion gap in the year-earlier period.
For the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts a record deficit of $1.75 trillion, almost four times the previous year’s $454.8 billion shortfall and about 13 percent of gross domestic product. Bear in mind that the target demanded of European nations wanting to join the euro was a deficit no greater than 3 percent of GDP.
David Walker, a former U.S. comptroller general, wrote in the Financial Times on May 12 that the U.S.’s top credit rating looks incompatible with “an accumulated negative net worth” of more than $11 trillion and “additional off-balance-sheet obligations” of $45 trillion. “One could even argue that our government does not deserve a triple A credit rating based on our current financial condition, structural fiscal imbalances and political stalemate,”
Well, spent a little time yesterday going to shops, looking for .380 and in a word...NONE! The last guy I talked to, my go to guy for hard to find items, said that "something is going on" but he didn't know (or wasn't saying) just what it is. So, probably the same way all over Houston and if you are shooting a .380 you better get what you can right now because when I asked each shop when they would expect to get some the unanamous response is that there isn't any to order. .223 was relatively plentiful.
Keep it clean.
I've lived most of my life in Southern Cal and Central Coast (1965-2005) and hate to see the politicians incrementally destroy a wonderful state.
I've heard the "land of fruits and nuts" all my life and just smiled because I knew they didn't get it.
Arnie won't be able to cut and repay his way out of this mess.
I think the only recourse is a federal bailout...which would be a horrible precedent. Taxation without representation comes to mind. If this happens it will only galvanized a movement already underfoot.
Comrade Renski
I realize some of the shenanigans going on that I write about are hard to believe but fast becoming much more believable. I have one that you may really have a hard time believing. I’ve talked about California’s financial troubles in the past but now they may have reverted to third grade and come up with a solution. Arnold Schwarzeneggar announced a state wide bake sale to help the states worsening budget deficit. The logistics behind this will likely cost much more than they can pull in, after all it’s not your child class of 20 little boppers, it’s a state of almost 37 million people. That’s more than all of Canada, eh!
I have no idea where they come up with these ideas but support is there. Schwarzeneggar said; “We can have the brownies, and the cupcakes with the sprinkles and the jimmies, and the little muffins with the nuts and the banana and bran. And we can make the bundt cake and the angel food and even the pies. Really there are a range of possibilities where we can go with this thing.” State assembly speaker Nunez said; “I think this is an excellent and very creative idea and I applaud the Governor on his leadership in this difficult time. I, myself, like to bake and look forward to contributing something to the Bake Sale,”
My favorite are the Tollhouse chocolate chip cookies.
roadrunner
In my mind, this requires a split set of loyalties and a division of focus between two objectives.
I think that keeping your strengths within reach is a better plan.
I knew it would happen.
His most interesting comment -- he feels the ultimate litmus test of whether we have gone over the brink is the following: how our leaders deal with health care reform. He says, very simply, that if Washington passes health care legislation that is not fully funded (for example, via a national consumption tax), we have gone over the brink. He has the natural concern that we will mandate dramatic new benefits, and claim to be able to pay for them with smoke and mirrrors (reduced admin cost, preventive care, tax on a few items like cigarettes and soda pop, etc)
Come with me to Europe sometime. We'll gave a great time. Stay away from the big cities--I HATE the cities-- and you will find people just like us. They just want to be left alone.
There are 2 ways I see that we can have inflation. One is tax and fee induced, the other a supply/demand problem. I think the latter is unlikely given the massive deleveraging, credit withdrawal and excess capacity.
The former is a possibility as the local, state and federal Govts scramble to maintain spending. The increased fees and taxes will further supress economic activity thus reducing inflationary pressures. The best case scenerio is probably a stalemate rather than deflation.
I am not sure that PMs will perform as well in a tax and fee based inflation as they would in a supply/demand inflation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Just so that you do not completely underestimate me, I wrote my senior thesis on the stock market for Prof. Steven Roulac in 1975.
I may have been born at night but it wasn't last night.
1. I do not believe, at this time, that the stock market is a place to store your wealth.
2. I believe that in the history of this country, there have been THREE times when people wished that they had their possessions very close to them and had better prepared for catastrophe. A. During the American Revolution. B. During the American Civil War. C. During the Great Depression. I have been hit over the head pretty hard by a rather hardnosed father that lived during the Great Depression and his lessons are and have been, pretty close to me. Each of these time periods is about 70-80 years apart. It's coincidentially been about 70-80 years since the last EVENT.
I manufacture about 50 items for the automotive aftermarket and I usually have 30-50 items on the drawing board with a lead time of 1-3 years. My drawing board is CLOSED for the duration. Last month I had to let two studs go. That bothers me because although these guys will end up on their feet, it will be somewhere else. I just cannot pay for the ancilliary costs of keeping them around. And I remind you, I'm still standing but I have seen a lot fall the last two years. I may or may not be standing 6 months from now.
As for European vacations, I get more thrill at having people tell me that they had a good time than would get if I had to go. I did not enjoy driving there, I do not enjoy riding on the train with people who bathe infrequently, I do not enjoy their condescending attitude and I do not enjoy spending money to further their economy.
As for my vacations, infrequently as they are..........I am a west of the Rockies type of guy. While you enjoy Europe on a mostly yearly basis, I enjoy southern Orange County almost nightly. May I recommend, Ketchum, Idaho. Also North Shore Lake Tahoe in August on Tue, Wed, Thurs only and Graegle, CAL. for future destinations if you wish to enjoy the American experience. And a lot more reasonable than Europe I might add. English spoken politely at all three
I make my products in this country, I spend my money here and I will retire and give people hell on bullitin boards from an ISP within the U.S.
carry on
May I add, one other item that I forgot to add to the inflation list. 30 caliber. A box just cost me $29.87 + TAX.
I have not been able to locate 38spl or .357 for a long time, pls PM if you know whereabouts.
This has been my experience as well for at least the last 6 months... (Connecticut) .223 is plentiful but (.40 SW, 9mm, .380) forget about it.
Any theories as to "what's going on"? Why can't the ammo manufacturers keep up with the demand? Or are there other issues???
Streeter & cohodk, enjoying the discussion...
Most of the examples you stated I dont consider to be inflation as I dont view taxes as inflation even though they are added costs. You mention prices going up all they time yet you cite 1x events. A sales tax increase, a truck registration, which at $580 I believe is WAY OUT of the consumer examples I wanted you to mention. I assume this for a big rig? Gasoline is up in the last 6 months, it is also 1/2 of what it was a year ago and inflation adjusted is cheaper than 115 years ago.
This is for a 10 yr old chevy with a weight fee. A big rig?, I'd have to mortgage the crib. Sorry for not listing examples from memory that jibe with the OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT STANDARDS. I love to be the one in charge of the OFFICIAL list. It seems to me, the OFFICIAL list was meant to keep SS COL's under control, not to be used as accurately portraying what the heck is really happening.
A surcharge on electricity is not inflation but rather a tax. What are you paying per Kwh from last year? I am paying almost 40% less.
A rose by any other name is a rose. I believe I am in excess of 20 cents a KWH. They couldn't raise the rates by statute so they used this fee as a way to get around the law.
The paper towel example is not good either as you are substituting one good for another. Its like saying you cant buy a Honda now, so you have to buy a Mercedes.
You are incorrect O mighty one. It is a perfect example. I used to buy a weeks supply went I went Ammo hunting. I used to pay about $1.06 per week for VIVA. Wally World disco's items for two reasons....they aren't moving or they cannot control the price. In this case Kimberly-Clark and Wally World bid each other adieu. I now pay almost $10 for 6 weeks supply of the same item. It is only sold 6/ now instead on 1/ like it formerly was. I would say it is spot on. Other items I purchase like copper, nickel and Chromium fluctuate and MAYBE I should learn to overlay charts to figure out if things are going up. Whoops, I just looked at my check book....things ARE going up. Dang it.
While you are posting charts, please post this one. Number of illegals gov't admits have come into the U.S. since 1980. And overlay it with this one...Number of federally financed abortions in the same time period ---(that would have been American workers if not aborted). Do you see ANY correlation?
Oh, BTW, gas went to $2.70 overnight....it's still not as high as it was so it doesn't count
carry on til tomorrow,
chuck out
edit for speeeling
Never once have I said the stock market is a place to "store" wealth. In fact, I have stated probably 100x in this thread that I believe ALL assets classes are for "dating" only. I dont not believe anything is a good store of wealth, except perhaps our kids.
As far as educational background I wrote my honors thesis at Syracuse on the -at the time--upcoming European Union and the integration of the Eastern Bloc countries. I wish I had parked some money in Poland or Czech Republic in 1991.
When I am in Europe I do not ride the train or hang out with the uncleansed. More importantly, I believe one can get a much greater appreciation for what we have in this country by seeing how the rest of the world lives. Contrary to what you hear in the media, most of the World loves the USA, especially the Chinese.
As far as travel within our own country, I do that almost every year also. Toured the SW 3 years ago, except S. Cali--WAY too many people there for me. I could never ride the subway next to Mr. Stinky in LA. Been to the Sierra Nevadas twice, lovely area. Last year I toured the Pacific Northwest, also a lovely area once you get out of the cities. Been to the Rockies and Montana/Idaho/Wyoming 3x. Been to almost every province in Canada including Alberta 3x from Calgary to Ft. Chipewan. Unfortunately my wife drags me to Florida every year also. So as far as seeing this country, well, I have seen most of it and like most of it. I do not agree with the politcal and socio-economic course this country has taken and am seriously considering moving to a country similiar in land size to Cali, but with 1/10th the population. The problems in this Country can only be solved over time, and since I am probably more than 1/2 dead, it is not time I want to waste.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
old government propaganda film
I wonder who will do the voice for the newer one sure to come out. Morgan Freeman?
Nightmare of the Total State
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Achtung, German (Gold) Shoppers!
May 20th 2009
The largest investors in coins and bars this week was in Germany, where inflationary fears saw demand quadruple to 59 tonnes, while Swiss growth was even higher at 437%, taking it into second place at 39 tonnes. The US came in third, more than doubling to 27 tonnes as investors hedged against financial and economic risk. Countries such as Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand turned into net disinvetors during the period. Oh, if one could peer into the psyche of the average buyer and/or seller...For our money, Western buyers are typically about as far behind the curve as the Fed has been on inflation and/or deflation. Eastern buyers have had the edge...but we cannot put our finger on the origin of their sense of timing and value. It must be an intuitive thing.
Little wonder then, Â that entrepreneurial German spirits are seizing on the opportunity presented by local demand and are introducing...gold-dispensing ATM machines in that country. Nice idea. Nice, that is, if you do not mind parting with your hard-earned euros for a one gram gold ingot that sells for a 30% premium above spot gold. Gold, for $1200 an ounce? This, at a time when you can buy the same gold nearly at spot in the form of ETFs and pool accounts, at between 1 and 3 percent above spot for safekeeping accounts (Perth Mint, GoldMoney), or at between 5 and 8 percent above spot for major one-ounce coins?
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