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Gold is at a 16 year high
Longacre
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Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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Yeah, it is always best to wait till a metal reaches a historic high to recommend it to all your fund managers...get that feeding frenzy going! Somewhere I remember that "buy low and sell high" thingie. If you aren't already there, you probably didn't make it for this round.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>Yeah, it is always best to wait till a metal reaches a historic high to recommend it to all your fund managers...get that feeding frenzy going! Somewhere I remember that "buy low and sell high" thingie. If you aren't already there, you probably didn't make it for this round. >>
These are probably the same fund managers loading up on YHOO in early 2000.
I think the fundamentals are more in place for gold to hold much of its recent gains -- weak dollar, huge debt and deficit, global chaos and uncertainty -- these don't look to be going away soon, and those are all bullish for the yellow metal.
Still, I don't think I'd put new money into non-numismatic gold at this point.
fundamentals. There is a long way to go before everyone is on board with it so prices
may get ahead of themselves. Caution is very advisable. Commodities are always highly
speculative and can turn rapidly. Fundamentals can turn almost overnight and sentiment
even faster. While the damage to the dollar can get much worse there are other instru-
ments to protect assets than gold, and the rest of the world doesn't have the buying mo-
tivation that we do.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while
Mine production is hurting. In South Africa the Rand has been so strong (gaining value compared to gold)that mines have been shutting down as they are losing more and more money. It could take 5-10 years to increase mine production to any great extent with environmental laws and the beating the miners have taken over the past 5-10 years. Also toss in losing hedge books for a number of companies. To those who think mine production can be turned on like a switch to bring gold to market in 1-2 years, forget it.
Wait unitl investment demand and hedge funds really start to demand gold in their portfolios. Total world value of the gold business is $300-500 BILLION dollars. That can be bought with 4 hours of trading on the Forex currency exchange which handles over $1 TRILLION daily in trades.
The new driver in gold demand is probably from outside the US. We
aren't the only ones who buy gold. This is worldwide demand, not just from the US.
John Hathaway, summary of gold pros and cons
roadrunner
michael
Some are predicting $450 an oz, and maybe up to $500. But no one knows for sure.
I don't know for sure...... but I'll take wagers that we'll see
$450 gold in the next 12 months. There were many here that proclaimed gold dead on the last downturn from $425 (gold headed back down to $330 or even under $300). They have been fairly silent as of late. I suspect they will be back on the next, inevitable gold correction. The long term trend is still up.
roadrunner
-YN Currently Collecting & Researching Colonial World Coins, Especially Spanish Coins, With a Great Interest in WWII Militaria.
My Ebay!
he recently heard that his sister sold some silver which has been in the
family...
Then you know its time.
I think we have a ways to go.
Please check out my eBay auctions!
My WLH Short Set Registry Collection
Actually, if the nation went back on to a gold standard, it would be the one and only thing that could probably curb the abuses of asset bubbles and constant inflation that have occurred ever since 1974. However there aren't are too many politicians (maybe 2?) who want to go back. Sound money doesn't mix with a socialized welfare state. You don't get re-elected to office if you don't promise handouts.
The fact that members of the coin community or even members of the general public buy gold is literally a drop in the ocean. The amount of gold trading is less than 1% of the stock and currency market activity. There is no effect here by individuals...one or thousands. The weakening of our dollar due to our triple deficits is what is driving gold up....not the other way around. However the effect from overseas is something else. Niether you or I can affect that. If owning gold is good for you then do it. It is neither unpatriotic nor bad for our economy per se. If you feel buying growth stocks is patriotic, then buy those. Buy another SUV or a 2nd home if that is what you feel will help our economy. We all have to make decisions that work for us & our families because uncle Sam is not looking out for us.
roadrunner
<< <i>I've got some 1/10 an ounce gold coins, hopefully those will appreciate a bit.
I do too. 3 of them, I think. I usually get about 1 a year. Wish I had have bought a few more when they were selling for $35....
i think gold will be more than $450.00 in less than 60 days !!!.maybe less than 30 days?
littlejohn
<< <i>hi
i think gold will be more than $450.00 in less than 60 days !!!.maybe less than 30 days?
littlejohn >>
There is a real change in investor sentiment. Very few own gold so there could be huge net
buying. There are also very powerfull forces arrayed against gold and central banks acting
in tandem can greatly affect sentiment. At some point the bankers will decide that the dollar
has fallen too far and they'll work to bolster it. Fundamentals will remain in place for higher
gold prices and a lower dollar for some time.
china is right now selling off all its(1,000,000,000) of america dollars,and is buying up oil & gold too hold in place of our dollars.
littlejohn
China has around $500 Billion of our dollars ($500,000,000,000).
They are in the process of buying up a Canadian Gold Mining Company for around $5 BILLION. That's one way to use our dollars to trade paper for valuable raw assets. They need assets, not paper
promises.
Toss in Russia, Japan, and a few others and you have > $1 TRILLION
roadrunner
Gold is a worldwide insurance against the stupidity of governments.
Also if you're thinking the dollar is toast, you can buy an Asian bond ETF called Aberdeen Asia Income Fund.
Symbol "FAX"
I buy some regularly as it pays a healthy dividend (that you can use to buy coins) and it goes up when the dollar goes down.
I am just about 35% in gold bullion right now. I also "farm" some other dividend stocks and use the income to buy MORE income and gold and coins.
Kinda like a perpetual motion machine..........and it works.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
TIMING the market is for outright gamblers. Gold should have been bought all the way up from the 265-285 level. NOW is the time to buy gold but probably ..... p r o b a b l y.......not all at once.
Average in until you have your asset percentage where you want it.
Camelot
Mike
idocoins
<< <i>450 before 415? >>
I'm 60% confident we're in a short term up move. It should take us to at least $450 if true.
Current Bullion Prices
as of: Tuesday, November 16, 2004 01:22 PM
Metal Current Price Today's High Today's Low Previous Close Net Change
Gold $440.10 $441.00 $400.40 $438.10 $2.00
Silver $7.56 $7.61 $7.51 $7.61 ($0.05)
Platinum $867.50 $878.50 $866.50 $873.50 ($6.00
----------------------------------------------------------------
it broke the $440 mark($441)
littlejohn
Current Bullion Prices
as of: Tuesday, November 16, 2004 02:08 PM
Market Now Closed
Metal Current Price Today's High Today's Low Previous Close Net Change
Gold $440.00 $441.00 $400.40 $438.10 $1.90
Silver $7.56 $7.61 $7.51 $7.61 ($0.05)
Platinum $867.50 $878.50 $866.50 $873.50 ($6.00)
Tyler
Since our trade deficit is probably not going to take a strong turn downward it seems the dollar exchange rate probably won't improve in the short term (did I say "term"?). Unless something strange happens in China, they will continue to industralize and there will be a dramatic increase in workers and free enterprise businesses so demand for gold will increase at the popular level...they will need more computers and jewelry and we're talking about a billion people.
Production is probably going to remain similar to what it is for now because it takes a while (2 years or so) to bring on new mines. Granted that as price increases the production is stepped up but it just doesn't seem like there is a lot of unused mining capacity at the moment. The Russians seem to have finished emptying their gold stockpiles and they were the last group to put out a lot of gold into the great ocean.
My knee-jerk reaction to these items is that gold will continue to increase gently (on the average) and will spike strongly from time to time. I would prognosticate that the price of collecting US gold coins is going higher and the prices will hold the increases unless the market gets saturated or scared and that seems unlikely in the short term. MS gold seems a little overpriced right now when compared to the recent sales price information and I can't figure why it's suddenly higher because low MS common US gold is like 3x melt and I'm seein 4x-5x in bid prices. It may be that there are more people in the whole coin arena and the normal percent are collecting US gold, it's just that there are more of them and still the number of coins has remained the same. It is a good time to not get hyped 'cause I do smell a run ala 'mid 80's. I believe that a smart collector of US MS gold is gonna still be in the game but it's just gonna cost a us little more and we have to be ready to step out for a bit from time to time and collect MS FS war nickles or something but hey, we make more when we sell too so all's well. Kinda like this guy I knew named Saul. His last name was Good and when he walked in a room the first thing you would hear is "hey, it's SaulGood!
Just my thoughts.
I would equate it to coins. More and more collectors are aggressively buying fewer and fewer quality coins. Prices are apt to rise.
My personal prediction is that we run up and test $500 before this year is over. Last year we had a run to year end at the $400 level. Remember? What do you think $500 gold will do to prices at the FUN show in January?
Here is a great article written by the folks at CNI:
http://www.golddealer.com/specialreport.asp
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
$20 Saint Gaudens Report
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
If making money was easy buying and selling commodities, don't you think more people would be doing it?
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Further, if the stock market can climb back (11000 DJIA) investors may leave gold. Remember that fear and greed move markets.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
The volatility is going to get crazier and crazier. Hang on for a wild ride...up and down.
The MS66 Saints have not yet reacted because of the amount of crappy coins made over the past year. Many are just glorified MS65's and no one wants to pay $2000 for MS65's. Real eye popping 66's are worth all of the $2200 and then some. I sold a few choicer MS65 Saints for $1225 on Sunday. Compared to where these were at $425 gold in the spring, we have a ways to go. Buyers are more leery expecting a correction, but the spring will fully unwind to the $1400 level if gold hangs around here for the rest of the year. And odds are that it will follow a typical strong end of the year pattern.
The gold commercials (COT) are starting to lose the handle on the market they so well manipulated over the past 15 years. As gold unwinds to seek its true price, generic gold will follow it. When gold buyers see the COT broken, it will really fly. And generic gold can go as high as it wants. $2000-2500 MS65 Saints may not be too far off.
roadrunner
<< <i>All bubbles start off as a great story. When your barber starts telling you
he recently heard that his sister sold some silver which has been in the
family...
Then you know its time.
Like the real estate market
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
RR
I really expect to see this MS 65 generic gold level off, and not keep going as the Gold price moves.
I think most of this market is investor driven, and not collector driven, and these folks will buy the high grade stuff for awhile, and then move down to lower grade slabbed coins. I think this for the following reasons,
Most of the bigger buyers want to buy good slabbed material as close to spot as possible and when the price of MS 65’s moves to far out they will be looking for 64’s then 63’s then 62’s.
Many buyers still have a fear that if the paper financial world gets out of control, and there is a gov. gold call in, they want to be in a “collector coins”
My personal advice to family members is if they want to buy in this market buy XF AU and low end MS, all of which I think as a longer term investment will out perform Generic high-end gold percentage wise.
I am positioning my portfolio away from stocks and bonds. CEOs of many companies are already predicting a bad 2005 economy wise and that my friend is a train wreck I can see from miles away.
The only way to get rid of the government deficits is to let the dollar slide another 30%. And gold price is inversely proportional to dollar's value. Gold will go up. The bush administration knows this and they will let the dollar slide as no government republican or democrat can raise the capital to get rid of this deficit from thin air. Another thing they can do is to raise taxes which is not going to happen, raise interest rates which will crash and burn the economy and the housing market.........So the natural thing to do is let the dollar slide. A painless way to suck our hard earned money without us even knowing it.... it doesn't come out of your paycheck right ?
"Back to the past, Boomers move in with the kids!"
If you read this it brings up another interesting question?
If we are to have a Gold boom in the U.S., in either coins or bullion, who is going to be able to buy GOLD?
<< <i>If we are to have a Gold boom in the U.S., in either coins or bullion, who is going to be able to buy GOLD? >>
Who is buying Google ? Who bought Enron ? Who bought worldcom ?
I used to believe Bush had no financial strategy, but have come to believe he may be intentionally pushing us toward devaluation by spending brinkmanship. There is no way our trading partners would willingly devalue the dollar as they did in the Plaza accord, but perhaps there is another way to gain their begrudging cooperation. The precedent for devaluation exists. In 73 at the end of the Vietnam war, Nixon devalued by taking us off the gold standard. In 85, at the end of the cold war, Reagan did the same. In both cases, we'd borne the expense of a large military objective alone, or principally so. We allowed the world to share in our military spending by cutting our debt in one felled swoop, repaying our debt with devalued dollars. In both cases (73,85), the decision to devalue was followed by a period of great productivity and an economic boom. In the 70's, it was real estate. In the early 90's, it was the stock market. There is a rational argument that worries devaluation is inflationary. It is. The negative consequence is that spending power diminishes here and inflation stifles productivity. IMO, those consequences are easily offset by gains in manufacturing as our goods become cheaper abroad, and by inflation induced equity in real estate. Give American consumers a dose of inflation induced home equity and an urgency to buy before prices/rates climb and watch what happens.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
“Who is buying Google ? Who bought Enron ? Who bought worldcom ?”
You know Sir, I have no idea!
Here is the crux of what I posted this morning on the open forum. I will assume that these numbers are pretty correct since they seem to be published in many areas.
In a recent article Ben Stein wrote about some recent research on retiring baby boomers. According to Stein this group consists of nearly 77 million people in the U.S.
Out of that group less than 50% have a net worth of $50,000 or less. The overall average net worth for the entire group is $37,000. Less than 8% have a net worth of $200,000.
Men and women averaged together will have a life span of 85 years, and a large part of the group will desire, or be forced to retire at age 65.
If out of a population of 294 million there are 77 million baby boomers and most of these folks are at least thinking about saving for retirement, but are nearly BROKE, who in the world does buy all these crazy stocks, and are they paying with credit?
If lets say there are 294 million of us, and 77 million are boomers, and 100 million are children under 18 who are not investors. Then the balances of 117 are young adults struggling to make ends meet. I think there is no doubt that the boomers are the ones that bought all the stocks, and most of them were gambling trying to play catch up, and the gamble did not pay off. Looking at every false start this stock market tries to make toward recovery it appears the boomers may be done, tapped out, credit cards, home mortgages, and bank loans, at max.
If they blew what gambling money they had on bad investments and the remainder is tied up in their homes, who is going to support our Gold rally, or buy high-end coins in years to come for that matter?
The price of gold is dependent on the currency in which it is quoted.
Because of the decline in the US dollar, gold appears to be on a bull run --- which it is if viewed in US dollar terms.
When viewed from the perspective of the stronger currencies of Australia, Canada, Switzerland and others, the price of gold has risen significantly less.
When compared to commodities, the percentage rise in the price of gold is far less.
If and when China and Japan, stop supporting and buying the dollar and financing the USA's debt, the price of gold and commodities will likely rise significantly more. If they do, we are in for some very turbulent financial times. It seems prudent to protect one's self from such a possibility by "investing" in instruments which can be denominated in alternatives to the USA dollar. Gold and silver are but two alternatives. There are others which may do a better job. Do due dilligence.
OB
Where I am sure this is true, what does that tell us, that perhaps our foreign brothers have no extra cash either? I have no idea what the problems are in other countries but it is common knowledge that the countries above, plus England and France, and with the exception of perhaps Switzerland, also have very large baby boom populations.
As I read more and more of these reports on how broke most Americans are in terms of real net worth, I have been seriously questioning just who I might have to sell my coins and gold to in a few years. In fact in the last several months I have stopped buying investment slabbed gold, type coins, or other coins for my sets. The only exceptions are purchases for my Bust Half collection. At present I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to go up.
Another interesting point here is that if it is the Fed’s intent to devalue the dollar to the point where our goods are cheaper here and overseas, this does not appear to be working. Last nights news had a story on wholesale prices increases, and said expect to pay up to 5% more for most items in a couple of months.
Just overseas - not here. Here the prices will probably go up as the raw materials get more expensive.
Now as far as the 1973 "boom" is concerned, I would sure hope that is NOT what we are entering into. It was the second worst managed "boom" of the 20th century after that of the two years of boom in 1928 and 1929 as banks were beginning to fail, while real estate prices kept escalating, prior to the Great Depression itself.
Just a short 18 months after Nixon took the US government completely off the gold standard (internationally) in 1973, we were heading fast into the second worst recession/depression of the 20th century which hit bottom by 1975. (Nixon began the process of taking us off the gold standard in August, 1971).
More US manufacturing plants closed in 1975 than in any year including that of the Great Depression. The term "rust belt" was born and it was the true beginning of American's major shift from a creditor /manufacturing nation to a debtor/service industry nation. While we had some tepid good years in 1977 and 1978 by 1982, the recession/depression of 1975-1982 ensured us that the stock market was worth less in 1982 than it was worth in 1965 in NON-INFLATION ADJUSTED DOLLARS.
You all LOVED Roony Reegie when he introduced his "trickle down" trickery and paved the way for the greatest corporate WELFARE program in history.
Now that all the FACTORIES are in Asia, we can get our dollar dumped to make sure a few of our sweater knitting shops can be more competitive.
The game is over folks.
Let's hear it for the NEW WORLD ORDER!!!!!
Our program of "downsizing" has now left people free to enjoy the freedom from work they always wanted.
...hark....what's that?
Oh. Just the chickens coming home to roost.
Good thing we have lotsa natural resources and good crop acreage so the overseas currency can help us out by buying them from us so we can have some soup.
Make mine Campbell's Chunky.
SHAME should rest on Washington, DC unto eternity.
Moreover, while Gold is common turf for coin collectors to discuss, we still don't have the Financial Salesmen (Planners) telling their customers to add gold to their portfolios. When Gold goes high enough, long enough, the Salesmen will capitulate their clients into Gold to appear legitimate. And then the party will have begun.
As a guideline, I think that when you see Gold Mines in the "Top Ten" investments of ordinary Growth Mutual funds, it's time to discuss the end of the party and when it might occur.
TDN
That’s what is happening but Topstuff has a good point.
“Now that all the FACTORIES are in Asia, we can get our dollar dumped to make sure a few of our sweater knitting shops can be more competitive.”
This is cute, sad, but cute!
Oreville,
Is there a place where people just draw in their horns and don’t play the next cycle?
I mean look how cheap stocks were in the 30’s but who had money to buy them, and what money people had they would not spend on shares.
I still think that Gold is a good buy here as we head into a stagflation period but the “ stag” part of this tells me that even if the guys on Wall street start touting Gold, there just may not be many takers. How many of the millions of folks with brokerage accounts and a $37,000 net worth are going to be players in the next gamboling spree.