If you crack out all the coins in your Registry Set,What % will come back the same grade on the hold

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

I would tend to say approximately 75% of all my coins would come back at the grade written on the insert.Perhaps higher

Is anyone surprised at this answer?

Stewart

Lakesammman

95% - the remainder will come back higher.....

tjkillian

Statistically, I would say 90% would come back the same. 5% would come back higher and 5% would come back lower. Most of my coins are pre-1950 and I have virtually no ultra high grade moderns.

I mostly collect 19th century.

Tom

sliderider

Can't you resubmit in the original holders? I read an article once that said that if you submit a PCGS slabbed coin for regrading, PCGS will reslab it with the tag it came with if it doesn't grade higher that way you can't lose anything by having it grade lower.

100proof1957

100 %

khayse

Put down the kool-aid.

Maybe 80%. This might be a fun exercise to do sometime. I'd love to see some actual results.

-KHayse

cladking

It would be interesting to see expert opinion on this, but I'd guess about 80% of slabbed
coins are typical for the grade and close enough to the middle of the range that they'd al-
most always come back at the same grade. The other 20% would tend to be in "maxed
out" slabs though obviously some would be undergraded. The number that came back in
higher grade slabs would be largely dependent on what you collect and what type of coin
you like. If you have a large preference for one or two grading characteristics like strike or
marking then the coins you own are more likely not to be typical for the grade and there
will be more scatter upon regrade. If you collect coins that have larger spreads between
grades (especially if very expensive) or are almost universally slabbed there will be more
tendency for the grades to be maxed out.

Some series will tend to be maxed out more than others also. Some series are much more
uniformly struck so higher percentages can come back in the same grade too. Coins which
usually are only graded in unc are more likely to come back in the same grade.

And the lenght of time since the coins were graded will play a role in the chances of coming
back at the same grade.

MacCrimmon

Crack out that 1919 and see if they can go 1 for 1.

Statistically, I'd bet the higher the grade, the less chance it would have to repeat; especially for proofs.

bullseye

Stewart,

That is the BEST question you have EVER asked!

My PERSONAL opinion is that 60-70% will come back the same. There is a known inconsistancy.

The Registry concept has caused too many uneducated people to buy the HOLDER, NOT the coin!

I'd say on any given day, there is a 10-20% glut of overgraded coins on the market. But thats the mass of it. I am NOT saying that overgrading is a problem (the bad stuff just lingers).

Everythime I look at a major auction I want puke. Seems the majority of rejects end up in those-and the uneducated public (like me) ends up stuck.

Mike

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

My reasoning is simple.Most of the graders at PCGS don't agree on grades more than 75 - 80% of the time.

Stewart

MrEureka

Everythime I look at a major auction I want puke.

Mike - Then you should have no problem finding what you want!

Seriously, if you can tell the difference between the gems and the puke, you have nothing to fear. If you can't tell the difference, why bother paying extra for the gems?

RBinTex

I think 2/3 same, 1/6 higher & 1/6 lower - on average.

MrEureka

My reasoning is simple.Most of the graders at PCGS don't agree on grades more than 75 - 80% of the time.

STEWARTBLAY - You know better than to generalize. TPG's are the first line of defense against overgraded coins. Trusted dealers are the second line. And the final buyer is the third and final line of defense. The results of your experiment will depend entirely on the skills of the dealer and collector.

Steve27

For me it might be lower than 75%, because I know this one would never grade 69DCAM again (look at the crap between the L and the I):

DrPete

Although the answer would vary depending on the series and the grades involved, I like the answer of 90% the same and 5% higher and 5% lower, a bell-shaped curve of one standard deviation or close to it. We are dealing with a grading system that involves three graders and a finalizer that helps reduce some of the statistical variation in the system.

It truly would be interesting to try such an experiment, but it would be somewhat costly for the grading fees, regrade fees, and loss of value that seems to attend coins that are down-graded. I wouldn't be surprised if PCGS hasn't already done such studies internally, but I suspect they would hold such results close to heart and keep it quiet as a trade secret. We do know from previous comments made by David Hall that his experienced graders agree 75-80% of the time. Once you factor in three graders and a finalizer you have significantly diminished the variability of grading.

WaterSport

Well, I think we can all agree it will never happen. Taking a set and resubmitting it to have what could be a 10- 25% return in lower grades is a 10-25% return in lower $$$$$. And that is why no one would ever do it.

I know my grading sucks 75% of the time and it looks like the pros are off 25% of the time. But does that 25% seems to be in the over grading department? Or is it in under grading? or split? Maybe a better question to ask is what percentage of the coins you resubmit comes back the same, higher or lower. I have to tell you of all my submissions; I finally saw a coin come back for the FIRST time bumped up from AU58-MS 61. While I admit my grading sucks, I still think the pros lean more on the overgraded side and that is why many of us do not resubmit.

WS

kieferscoins

If I crack my samples I doubt PCGS will again put them in the same type of sample slab. I say 0% chance they will come back in the same grade/label.

Cameron Kiefer

foodude

Crack out that 1919 and see if they can go 1 for 1.

If I crack my samples I doubt PCGS will again put them in the same type of sample slab. I say 0% chance they will come back in the same grade/label.

jacktheknife

Crack out that 1919 and see if they can go 1 for 1


I truly doubt that Stewart's 19-P in 69RD would come back with the same grade. In fact Stewart has so many wondergems that I don't think he'd do as well as he thinks. Not because the coins are over graded, but because I think PCGS "is snakebit" and has full radar up against full red copper coins. With prices soaring through the roof, PCGS just isn't willing to take on the liability.

coinguy1

Stewart, I am curious, why did you pose the question specifically with respect to Registry Set coins, rather than all PCGS coins?

Are you implying that upon re-grading, the % of the coins which receive the same grade could or would be different for Registry Set owners than for the population as a whole?

Are you trying to spice things up by choosing a subset of the PCGS coin population which is likely to be very high in grade and thus subject to larger drops in "value" if the coins re-grade lower?

Curious minds want to know......

Finally, in answer to YOUR question, my guess would be more in line with that of Bullseye's than the others I have seen so far.

keoj

Excellent question.....my bet is the same a few others....maybe 80% on a good day. This is the same as seeing a coin get graded by PCGS after a series of crackouts. I've personally seen a coin come back with a 4 grade spread - 58 to 62.

keoj

ziggy29

<< <i>Everythime I look at a major auction I want puke. Seems the majority of rejects end up in those-and the uneducated public (like me) ends up stuck. >>

I think you're at least mostly right. For the coins I'm looking for, I'm thinking that most of the time the coin never has a chance to get to me. I think many coins like this wind up in dealer-to-dealer transactions for dealers who have discriminating customers with specific want lists (and who will pay significantly over "sheet" for the right coin). They may examine the lots and pick off some of the jewels they can quickly flip to their clients.

The rest of them are the ones that wind up in auction or fixed price lists, I think -- most of the time.

MrEureka

I'd say on any given day, there is a 10-20% glut of overgraded coins on the market.

Bullseye and CoinGuy - What exactly does that mean? Is it consistent with Bullseye's contention that only 60-70% of Registry Set coins would come back with the same grade?

Catch22

Depending on the number of coins in your registry graded at MS-70, I'd say about 60% would come back the same.

How many coins graded MS-70 if cracked out do you think would come back the same? I'd guess about 2%.

shylock

Interesting idea! Part II would be: If you cracked out all the coins in your Registry Set that have gotten upgrades, what % will come back with the same grade vs. the original lower grade? Would the chances of any coming back with a higher grade be zero?

Colorfulcoins

80% same grade, 15% higher, 5% lower.......a bit abnormal but my coins average a FR02 grade and PCGS's consistency at low level coins isn't too good (in my opinion).....and its also quite noticeable how they have tightened up from the old green slab holders too!

coinguy1

"I'd say on any given day, there is a 10-20% glut of overgraded coins on the market."


<< <i>Bullseye and CoinGuy - What exactly does that mean? Is it consistent with Bullseye's contention that only 60-70% of Registry Set coins would come back with the same grade? >>

Andy, while the quote was not mine, I do think its point is consistent with the 60%-70% figure mentioned, if you also consider the % of (arguably) under-graded coins out there.

Bear

Since I try to purchase PQ coins for the particular grade, I believe if I cracked all my coins out

and resubmitted them to PCGS I would get 80% same grade, 10% lower and 10% higher.

Or at lleast I would pray so.

Lakesammman

SB:

My first answer was a bit flippant.

It obviously depends on the collector. There are collectors that buy only coins that are knocking on the next grade up. There are other collections, some of which have been offered recently, that are all knocking on the next grade down. So, the answer to your question is a very individual one and a generality will not cover all situations.

Since you are fussy and a good grader, and I would stand in line to buy coins in your collection, as would others, I would guess a high percentage of your coins would regrade the same or higher.

nwcs

I think that almost all will be the same. One or two will go higher. One or two will go lower.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

Tim

If you read the question I was asking everyone individually.Yes I am asking people to be personable.

Stewart

mrcommem

I don't think my 50-piece silver commem set would change very much. Most of the coins that I thought would upgrade have already been sent in and done so. I would estimate maybe 90% would stay the same.

marcmoish

It obviously depends on the collector. There are collectors that buy only coins that are knocking on the next grade up. There are other collections, some of which have been offered recently, that are all knocking on the next grade down. So, the answer to your question is a very individual one and a generality will not cover all situations.

good point and so true - being I too am quite fussy - I see no problem with a much higher percentage and likely upgrades on a number of dates etc.

Cool thread Stewart!



Marc

Coppernicus

In my Lincoln wheat set, I'd say about 80% grade the same, 10% lower, 10% higher. (Used to be maybe 15-20% higher, but I've cracked some )

Mike

Trime

I would have estimated the answer to be about 70-75 % but I would have thought that the bias would be toward lower not higher grades. I think this because those interested in registry sets are more likely to resubmit borderline for grade coins until they attain their goal of the higher grade. Thus registry sets would be more likely to be at the max grade. Since there appears to be trend toward grade inflation with time the longer a registry set remains unfiddled the more likely an increase in grade may occur

BillJones

<< <i>I would tend to say approximately 75% of all my coins would come back at the grade written on the insert.Perhaps higher

Is anyone surprised at this answer?

Stewart >>



No.

There two factors that come into play when you send coins in to be graded. The prime factor is the real grade of the coin. I've found that I get back the real grade about 85 to 90% of the time.

The second component is “the lottery factor.” These are the variances that occur both up and down. Coins can be overgraded, undergraded or body bagged. Yes, Virginia, coins that get body bagged at one point can be graded on a second try. I know because I’ve done it, and I don’t send that much stuff in for grading.

As for my collection, I agree with about 95% of the grades that are on the slabs. Among the 5%, are mostly coins that I think could grade higher. Maybe 1 or 2 percent of the coins are overgraded IMO. One of them is the 1901 $10 gold that I posted up in another thread this morning. This coin is in an NGC MS-65 holder, but it's a MS-64, PQ coin IMO.

BillJones

If you open this question up to ALL graded coins, my answer would be that the "same grade" would come back perhaps 75% of the time. I have hand picked the coins that are in my collection. They are not the best coins that I have bought and sold because I can't afford to keep most things that I have sold though the business. They are the best coins for the grade that I afford to keep.

If you open it to the entire population of slabbed coins, the percent of "same grades" could go down to 75% or so. There are a lot of coins around that are "maxed out" with respect to their grades. They are Anthony Swiatek's “emperor” or “plutonium” slabs. (i.e. The emperor has no clothes; cracking out some coins will be lethal to your financial health.) Every dealer and collector who has looked at a great many slabbed coins at the shows knows what I’m talking about.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

I would like to hear from some of the top registry guys whether you ane registered,hidden or unregistered.
Guys like Gerry Lincoln memorials),Joshua Indian cents,mercury dimes),Tom McCarroll Buffalo nickels,Jeff Stanley Proof memorials,Wondercoin washington quarters,ms 68 commemoratives,Sher 3 cent nickels,proof Barbers and the other guys (you know who you are)

Stewart

BillJones

Do you really think that most people are going fess up and admit that the coins that got them to the top of the registries are overgaded? I have a few sets up across the street, and I'm one of the few, if no the only one, who will make comments that a coin X is overgraded IMO when it's in my set.

Grading standards have slipped for many classic coins in recent years. Quite often the reason is that the "real thing" is really rare in the Mint State grades. The grading services seem to feel duty bound to put some Mint State product out there even if it's not really Mint State.

What's the worst offender? By FAR it's the Classic Head $5 gold coin in "Mint State." That coin is really scarce in true Mint State, and most anything in a slab that has MS-63 or less on it is not Mint State. Three Dollar Gold Pieces are not far behind in the "most frequently overgraded coin sweepstakes."

NIckelCollector

Excellent question!

I believe 80% would come back the same grade with 10% higher and 10% lower.

Some background - I only collect full step Jeffersons. In my opinion, PCGS at times has been inconsistent with their definition of full steps. I probably reject 1/3 of the coins sent to me. I guess you can argue that lower, perhaps over graded coins are the ones that come up for sale more frequently leading to a higher rejection rate.

Therefore, I do not think the coins in my Jefferson collection are a representative sample of the total coins graded by PCGS by date, by grade.

So my answer on what % would come back the same grade would be very different for total PCGS graded Jeffersons (vs in my collection).