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Crack-outs are sucker bets.

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  • originalisbestoriginalisbest Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭✭
    Welcome to you, Saintguru.

    (Though I must admit, I don't know too many folks that are hard up who hail from Winnetka. imageimageimageimage :0 image)
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SaintGuru,

    Some background:

    every once in a while, a new poster joins this forum...

    they sometimes have a "handle" like MrBigShot or MrKnowItAll, sometimes not.

    sometimes, within their first 100 posts or something, they start a new thread, stating very stongly, one side of a very controversial argument around here.

    Sometimes the topic is "classics vs moderns", sometimes it's "Real vs AT", sometimes it's "dipping is cleaning, no it's not", sometimes it's whether and by how much the third party grading services vary.

    whatever the specific controversial topic, it's one that has been hashed and rehashed, if one searches under the keywords one will find fascinating reading that repeats sometimes.

    Well, if it's a frequently debated topic, some folks have their arguments all laid out already, and when someone to brings it up, and states matters of opinion as fact, and asks for comments, they get them!

    Hope that explains the reception you received. You posted because you wanted to talk about this topic, and you sure got some discussion! (my own opinion about cracking and crossing: sometimes. It Depends)

    That said, you presented your side very eloquently ( but you might want to be careful copping a cavalier attitude about large amounts of money though, and if you make a case, be prepared to back it up with facts and a heated discussion!) I hope you will stick around and comment on your interests including and beyond gem saints and the subject of crackouts, therof!

    image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Example - a customer offers me an 1895-S 50c PCGS MS65, thinking it should grade MS66. I disagree, offering $7500. He gets offered $8500 by another dealer, which I tell him to take. That dealer has the coin "conserved" by NCS, then NGC grades the newly brilliant coin MS66 to justify the NCS fee. The coin is consigned to a Heritage sale and doesn't sell at $6500 hammer. So much for parity.

    This is the number one thing wrong with NGC right now. They and NCS are too cozy for my comfort. HOWEVER: if you believe that NGC grades higher than PCGS the majority of the time, then simply crack out all your nice PCGS coins and submit them to NGC for the upgrade. Try it - you'll be disappointed. Some will, but most won't.

    Note: I am NOT saying that there isn't a difference in grading between the two - there certainly is. However, my belief is that it's in the 20-25% of liner coins that the difference lies. The remaining 75-80% is practically the same. It's just that most of those are submitted and cross before you ever have the chance to buy them!


  • << <i>CG

    I don't know what to say on this board. I'm just going to hang out quietly and read the threads for a while because the "firing line" is more than I want to deal with. Some of the participants are like predators...I think I'll just go to the bank and talk to my "too expensive" Ladies in plastic. If I want to argue I'll open the door to my den and ask my wife what's for dinner.imageimage >>



    Who cares, say what ever you want and ignore the peanut gallery. Many take this board WAY to serious so it is best to let what ever they say roll off your back. One thing that people here do like is pictures as this is a visual group, with this board you have to expect many posts on a controversial subject and few post to a good numismatic thread so you just have to learn to wade through the BS to find the good stuff (kinda of like going to a flea market or rummage sale.
  • On a warm summer's evenin' on a train bound for nowhere,
    I met up with the gambler; we were both too tired to sleep.
    So we took turns a starin' out the window at the darkness
    'Til boredom overtook us, and he began to speak.

    He said, "Son, I've made a life out of readin' people's faces,
    And knowin' what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.
    And if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces.
    For a taste of your whiskey I'll give you some advice."

    So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow.
    Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light.
    And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression.
    Said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

    You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
    Know when to walk away and know when to run.
    You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
    There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

    Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
    Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
    'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser,
    And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."

    And when he'd finished speakin', he turned back towards the window,
    Crushed out his cigarette and faded off to sleep.
    And somewhere in the darkness the gambler, he broke even.
    But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep.

    You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
    Know when to walk away and know when to run.
    You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
    There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.




    I lost one point, 3 outta 3, on my first NGC morgans cracked and submitted to PCGS. I learned how to grade and to gamble and accept losses. I've lost on only one third world holder to PCGS since then. The last three crackouts were PCGS to PCGS, up one grade, NGC to PCGS, up one grade, and ANACS to PCGS, same. All as expected or better. image Ya wins some, ya loses some.


  • << <i>HOWEVER: if you believe that NGC grades higher than PCGS the majority of the time, then simply crack out all your nice PCGS coins and submit them to NGC for the upgrade. >>



    My sentiments exactly. It seems there is some idea that NGC will always give a grade or two more. Having sent them both directions I know this is not true. One thing I would never do is send a coin from one to the other hoping for THE SAME grade.


  • << <i>

    << <i>While he is a relative rookie, his Saints are BEAUTIFUL. >>



    Are there ugly Saints?

    Russ, NCNE >>



    No, all the Saints I have ever seen are as beautiful coin as I have ever beheld.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
    I thank all of you. Clearly I am one who says what I think, but I'm going to have to get the flow of this forum before I know what the "hot buttons" are. As a final note I will address a few points that were brought up.

    I broke out a ms65 because it was in an NGC holder and I am working on one of the finer sets of PCGS Registry Saints...frankly, I have no interest in an NGC coin for the 'wrong reasons' other than it doesn't accomodate my set...my reason, my burden. So that's why I did it. (and they say buy the coin not the holder...yeah, easy to say!)

    The issue of the money is really nobody's concern but mine. I was not making an issue over "woe is me, I just blew $12K". It simply was what it was. An ms64 1914 is $3400 and a ms65 is $16K. That's the price, that's all ther is to it. If someone who collects Jefferson Nickels or State Quarters finds the spread ostentatious then keep it to yourself, because there are guys collecting 18th century gold or Proof Trade Dllars where the difference from one grade to another is $50-100K. As I said, IT'S ALL RELATIVE. I make no excuses because Saints are expensive. I chose to collect them, I have 47 coins and that's it. I never mean to impress or depress anyone with prices. $12K means plenty to me...after all, it's TWELVE THOUSAND FRIGGIN DOLLARS....I can buy a lot of good crap with that kind of dough.

    Winnetka is a wonderful village, Original, and I think you get the message that I'm not hard up. However my detractors? have me thinking I'm worth much MORE than I am!

    And Clankeye...you are a man of letters...I will be changing mine from time to time and I am confident that you will likely relate to other prose as well.

    Thank you, all of you, even you abrasives. I have a decent set of balls and can take and dish it out with good nature. Let's just hope the stock market doesn't go to hell or it will be the "EX-Jay Brahin Saints"!!! Besides that, you will be hearing from me in the future. This has been quite a trip!imageimageimage
    image
  • Are you saying the coin is for sale at $3400?

    I doubt it. Of course you will not eat the 12K without a few tries at reholdering it in an NGC holder.
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,797 ✭✭✭✭✭
    One thing I would never do is send a coin from one to the other hoping for THE SAME grade.

    SG is a participant in the PCGS Registry. Therefore, he needed his coin to be in the PCGS holder, preferably at the same grade (or higher) as the NGC grade.

    Edited: Oops! Already stated.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
    Coyn...of course I will...it's going to NGC at ANA..I'm not going to fight "City HALL"....(hey, I like that!) But I can assure you of one thing. The next one I buy will be a great PCGS PQms64 at 64 money or a 65 in a PCGS holder!!!!

    image
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,162 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If one is playing the Registry, it's best to simply stick to PCGS coins. Trying to do what the professionals have already tried and failed is a stressful [and losing] proposition.

    You haven't lost a dime yet. You paid for an NGC MS65 and that's what you've got. You increased your chance of crossover by a few % when you cracked the coin out, but the downside is now you've got to get it back in the holder to sell it. BUT ... I have to ask. Why bother? You must have liked the coin when you bought it, so why not keep it? Keep it raw or drop it a grade at PCGS and keep the NGC insert taped to the back. Either way, it's still the same coin you liked before it failed to cross.....


    ps - your best bet to get coins to cross is to build the best set you can and then take it in for set review. PCGS likes collectors who like their coins. They want to get good coins into their holders. Buy nice coins and then take them in all at once and let them look at them. Then, if any don't cross, you can decide whether to downgrade or sell them off. Just a word of advice.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
    TDN...I did the entire set last month...got TWO HUGE upgrades!! ( I didn't have anything other than PCGS coins). I only wish that I had this coin at the time because I would guess that the odds would have been 75% on a ms65. I do really like the coin...I'll make a casual attempt to sell it, but I do agree with you...if I have to keep it I will. Anyway, look at what PQ coins bring in auction with great sets...sometimes they get 50-100% more over the grade price because others are thinking the upgrade thing. I'm seeing them all over right now. Look at the 24-D in Heritage ANA...bid 100% over the grade price! I bought a 1913-S that was a PQ spectacular MS64. The 13-S date is unquestionably the rattiest looking coin of the entire series in ms64. I paid a 50% premium in auction because I saw the potential. I submitted it 6 times and now, finally....it's a 65!! And WORTHY of the grade...this was a tough tough coin.

    And believe me...I always buy PCGS....this was the only time I bought an NGC on a spec. And never again. Who needs the headache???
    image
  • ReeceReece Posts: 378 ✭✭✭
    Hi Joe This is Reece-I have a question-if you are still around!-You stated that the NEW NGC products is 1 or 2 points higher than older NGC and current PCGS standards. why is this? Is it because a top qrader left PCGS for NGC? And are you saying that NGC is grading stricter than PCGS now? Maybe you or anyone else can enlighten me, and what a great exchange everybody I really like these boards!! Reeceimage
    RWK
  • keojkeoj Posts: 980 ✭✭✭
    SG,

    I think that it's a mistake to overlook NGC coins. I agree with TDN in concept in that 25% of the NGC coins will cross. The crossover game is tough (I do cross but never, ever crack out....too much on the line). Despite what anyone says, I've seen both services make large mistakes (both going higher and lower)...that's the hassle that crackouts. I see had one service tell me that a 63 coin is actually a 58 (this was when I tried in my youth to get a PCGS 63 upgraded to a NGC 64 - ah, what a learning curve!!!!!).

    I've gotten some real bargains in NGC holders. Some crossed and some didn't....I eventually matured and decided that it doesn't matter if I really like the coin. Yeah, its a hassle, you just need to decide if you're willing to limit to look just at PCGS coins. I look at all coins in PCGS, NGC, ANACS, ICG, PCI, SEGS holders (I don't usually go beyond this point) to pick up nice coins.

    Oh yeah, BTW, welcome.

    keoj

  • coinguy1coinguy1 Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
    Reece, Joe said:

    << <i>...most of the new NGC product is one to two points higher than older NGC and current PCGS standards >>

    I believe that translates into saying that (in his opinion) recently NGC has been grading 1 or 2 points higher (more liberally) than they used to and 1 or two points higher (more liberally) than PCGS currently grades. If that was his point, I think it was grossly generalized and exaggerated, even if Joe does know his coins.
  • ReeceReece Posts: 378 ✭✭✭
    Thanks Mark-That does make sence now!! Reeceimage
    RWK
  • originalisbestoriginalisbest Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for taking my needle about Winnetka gently, saintguru - it wasn't meant to be mean-spirited. image Having been to a couple friends' weddings there, it certainly is a beautiful place. For my part, I grew up in Glen Ellyn.

    The stock market... shall fluctuate.

    And, I'm sure that your saints make for a particularly impressive display and collection!
  • BochimanBochiman Posts: 25,378 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1) SaintGuru, welcome to the boards....whatta welcome, huh? image
    2) I wish I had the means to collect saints.....would be nice
    3) There are many different income levels, and collection levels, on this board. Get over it people image. I can probably collect more, income-wise, than a few people (YNs mainly) but not more than others. I wish I could, but I am not going to whine. I don't think SG meant it in a bad way when he said he would "eat his 12k loss".
    4) Eric, I don't think SG is actually even close to MBT. SG took responsibility for his actions. MBT just wants to threaten litigation and cry and pout.
    5) On the part about crack outs being sucker bets....that is true....imho. Just like at playing craps while gambling.....if you play any of the boxes in the middle (say, the hard numbers (4, 6, 8, 10)....well, those are sucker bets. And you know something, people DO make money at sucker bets (watched a guy have $100 on the hard 8 last weekend. had it up there 6 times and it hit 4 of those times. That is $100x (10 for 1 odds)= $900 each time. He lost $600 from doing it but gained $900x4 (number of times it hit). That is $3600-$600 (and, he had the hard 6 hit once but lost it 6 times for $900-$600)....so, the total winnings would be $3000+$300=$3300.
    A SUCKER BET the whole way, but, that night (Sunday last week), it paid off for him big, in just over an hour.
    6) People get their undies in an uproar at most anything these days
    7) In the summertime, with hot weather, tempers flare more easily
    8) Online, like in email, people can really misconstrue what others mean and it can lead to things getting out of hands (luckily, this one seems to have come back in)
    9) Some people really like to troll and poke at others (Calgold....that is directed at you).
    10) Again, SaintGuru, welcome to the board....take your own advice about watching the flow for awhile and you will likely enjoy the people here...at least, most of them. A few snippy folks, but for the most part, a lot of knowledge and fun. And, don't mind Russ or Eric (red devil) as they are really nice guys underneath image

    I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,253 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I paid a 50% premium in auction because I saw the potential. I submitted it 6 times and now, finally....it's a 65!! And WORTHY of the grade.

    Saintguru - Is the 13-S nice enough that you would have bought it in a 65 holder?

    For all it's worth, I always find it strange to see collectors playing the crackout and crossover game. Not because they can't do it well, but because there's such a temptation to sell a coin that becomes more valuable after it "works". Especially when the coin is, most likely, low end for its new grade. As a collector, I'd hate to play a game where I have to first fall in love with a coin and buy it, and then, after the upgrade, cold-heartedly sell it for a fat profit.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,965 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have only done the crack-out game when I knew that it was a slam dumk, which means that I don't do it very often.

    I've got a number of coins in my collection that are crack-out candidates, but I have never submitted them because I don't intend to sell the coins in the foreseeable future. Frankly I don't care what the number is on the holder if I'm not selling the coin. If I like the coin, that's all that counts.

    BUT... when the time comes to sell, the coin will get a new home if I think that such a move will pay dividends.
    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
    Eureka..

    Saintguru - Is the 13-S nice enough that you would have bought it in a 65 holder?

    that's a good question, but it requires a detailed answer. As I mentioned before, the 1913-S is the worst looking coin in the Saint series. Most of them came out of a Central American hoard in the 80's, and somehow a few hundred were all graded ms64 at once , and IMO 80% that were graded were not even close to the grade. Now maybe they were grading on a curve?? (isn't that wierd?), but if you look at a handful of ms64's you would think they were 62/63's. Pre-hoard coins were somewhat better. But that said, the best coins are so obvious, that they really shine. The difference between a "typical" 64 and a 65 is much greater than most...and the 65's are noticeably cleaner...but not as flashy as some other dates. It was just a tough year...look at the 1913 P...only 6 in ms65, none higher!!

    Now the answer..Yes. I would have bought it as a 65. There are only 11, and I have seen 3...this one is very much like other the ones I've seen. The best thing is that I spotted the potential of the coin and there was one other bidder who didn't have as much confidence. 50% premium was totally acceptable to me...and I made the assumption that it would remain a PQ 64. POP 11's aren't easily added to, so I expected nothing, other than an exceptionally high end coin from a ratty mintage. The End.image
    image
  • jomjom Posts: 3,441 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>TDN is right on target. JOM has also been saying this for quite some time. >>



    What the hell! Someone listened and agreed with me? That's amazing. I don't even know the guy who said that but they are clearly delusional. lol

    Obviously, I tend to agree with Mark (coinguy) and TDN here. Many of the correctly graded NGC (especially high cost) have probably been sent into PCGS and got crossed. What you see left in NGC holders are the mistakes much of the time. It is NGC fault in that they did have somewhat more liberal standards for a number of years hence creating the price differences.

    As to the idea of "expertise" and cracking out coins. I wouldn't recommend a "newbie" to crack out coins. Hell, I wouldn't recommend even BUYING any coins if you are new especially gold. I'd tell them to LOOK at many coins as shows and auctions and maybe buy a few cheapies. But Saintguru did pick a somewhat "easier" series to grade in the Saint. It is a large coin and has a somewhat established grading pattern. The problem with the Saint set is the COST. Yikes! image

    Saintguru: Welcome to the boards and good luck. It seems you have a nice set going. image

    jom
  • This content has been removed.
  • >>Especially when the coin is, most likely, low end for its new grade. As a collector, I'd hate to play a game where I have to first fall in love with a coin and buy it, and then, after the upgrade, cold-heartedly sell it for a fat profit.<<

    Exactly.image
  • GOLDGUYGOLDGUY Posts: 253 ✭✭
    Tradedollarnut's last post was about the best advice I've read on this subject -- although given my infrequent visits to this forum, I'm sure I've missed similar great advice from others. I think this was a great thread as saintguru's experience and dilemma is hardly unique in the collector and dealer communities -- especially as it applies to more expensive items like a rare date Saint.
    PS: Apparently, the logo I chose is popular (and a coincidence since it appears saintguru and I joined here about the same time). I've been told that I can download and use a unique logo -- which I plan to do as soon as I can get someone in my office who is smarter than me to figure out how to do it!
    Todd L. Imhof
    Partner / Executive VP
    Heritage Auctions
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
    But TODD...could there be a cooler logo??....I mean ONE struck, and possibly the most beautiful 20th century design!! I am just sorry that they didn't mint these. Oh, what a collection that would be.
    image

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