Crack-outs are sucker bets.
saintguru
Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
I am going to publicly announce that I will NEVER crack out an NGC coin again hoping for the same grade with PCGS. I know my coins, or so I think. I have a very good date Saint NGC65 that I was certain was a ms65...well...nooooooo!! I paid the 65 price, which was $12K more than a 64. I get to eat that! No pro, I'm a big boy.
But as irked as I was, when I got it back and looked at it REALLY closely I saw why it wasn't good enough. EDIT: I meant to say that once I got it back I realized what PCGS did not like. I DID scrutinize the coin hard and I thought it would grade. END EDIT I know some will disagree, but I will state that many, if not a majority of NGC coins simply are not graded as stringently as PCGS. Now the good take-away is that we can all feel good that we own PCGS coins!! That's why we pay premiums and GET premiums.
But as irked as I was, when I got it back and looked at it REALLY closely I saw why it wasn't good enough. EDIT: I meant to say that once I got it back I realized what PCGS did not like. I DID scrutinize the coin hard and I thought it would grade. END EDIT I know some will disagree, but I will state that many, if not a majority of NGC coins simply are not graded as stringently as PCGS. Now the good take-away is that we can all feel good that we own PCGS coins!! That's why we pay premiums and GET premiums.
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I think in some series that is the case (Saints being one). I do not know if I would say that in all series and all grade levels that I believe that.
<< <i>but I will state that many, if not a majority of NGC coins simply are not graded as stringently as PCGS. >>
I think that the gap has narrowed considerably over the last few months. Matter of fact, NGC has been pretty brutal in some series. Of course, it seems like PCGS has tightened even more.
Russ, NCNE
I don't buy that. Sorry. I've submitted raw coins and gotten different grades from the two so many times...and always higher at NGC where there was a difference.
<< <i>I think that for the majority of all coins submitted, the two services assign the exact same grade. However, I think that for the majority of coins available to be purchased by collectors in NGC holders, there is a distinct difference in quality. The NCG graded coins have been submitted for crossover at least once, if not many times, and the nicer coins have crossed over. The rest remain and are offered for sale. >>
TDN.... We discussed this a week or so ago and I misunderstood your point.... But since then and after re-reading your statement made previously, (and taking my head out of where the sun don't shine), I understand and agree with you...
You must keep in mind that I am just a hillbilly that went to a one room school almost 50 years ago where the teachers just barely graduated from grade school... So it just took me a little longer to comprehend what you said.
> The NCG graded coins have been submitted for crossover at least once, if not many times,
> and the nicer coins have crossed over. The rest remain and are offered for sale.
Bruce, I agree with this statement. But I was warned by several members that the thinking is dangerous
Oh, Devil....3 times TO MANY!!
<< <i>For those of you that believe PCGS and NGC grading is just about the same, just continue believing that way. It wasn't more than a few years ago that I was buying better NGC coins at such a discount that I could downgrade them at PCGS and the coins then sold for more. I believe that opportunity will come again. While a lot of older graded NGC coins have reentered the market and do hold up to current PCGS standards, most of the new NGC product is one to two points higher than older NGC and current PCGS standards. >>
If you are talking about supergrades (MS66 and above) I would tend to agree. However, in my experience over the last several years cracking out and submitting MS60-65 coins (several hundred) I have received the same grade back from PCGS on over 90%. I've had a few coins upgrade one point, and a few coins downgrade one point. I've never had a coin swing two or more points.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
bruce scher
A LESSON I LEARNED WELL. Thank goodness it was a "moderately priced coin"!! Could have been a lot worse.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>Thank goodness it was a "moderately priced coin"!! Could have been a lot worse. >>
Yeah, thank goodness.
Russ, NCNE
I was thinking TP the second (aka MEG)...
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>While he is a relative rookie, his Saints are BEAUTIFUL. >>
Are there ugly Saints?
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>"If you really knew your coins" Hmmm...
Well, I've seen JB's Saints. While he is a relative rookie, his Saints are BEAUTIFUL. JB is a very passionate collector who has focused and learned his stuff quickly. (And no, he didn't buy any of his Saints from me.) Then again, he had Steve Duckor looking over his shoulder. >>
If that is the case Joe, why is he posting this thread as if he were an expert in grading Saints? No one should be cracking coins out when they do not fully understand how to grade the coin. How can one form an opinion and state it here as a matter of fact based on three coins?
It's sad, but true. Too many collectors these days have the idea that grading is reading a number on a slab.
I've send enough coins to both services that I have to conclude they are different on different series but in general grade about the same overall with respect to pre 1964 coins in the AU to MS 65 range. I don't try to find 67 moderns that will move up to 68 so I can't speak there. I think it just depends on how bloodshot the graders eyeballs are when your coin crosses his desk.
I dont doubt that JB has a great collection. It isnt too difficult to put together an outstanding collection if you have...1) money... and 2) a good dealer to help you out with things.
My only point is that JB said that when he got it back, he THEN really looked at it...
From my point of view, the first mistake he made was not examining the coin closely before he cracked it out. That was way before his grading skills even came into play...
If he really knew his coins, he might have studied it intensly BEFORE cracking it out.
His second mistake was cracking out an NGC 65 coin to get into a PCGS 65 holder. Why would anyone do that with a spread of 12000????? Why not just cross it????
For those that submit, we know what a freaking crapshoot it can be on grades... There might have been a rim file or something that the first grader missed that would entail a body bag for enternity.
I personally think it was a foolish move, and was a bit annoyed by the "at least it was only a moderately priced coin". With statements like that, combined with his mentally challenged actions in cracking out the coin with little previous experience on a jump coin, he wont get much sympathy from me...
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
"No one should be cracking coins out when they do not fully understand how to grade the coin.....It's sad, but true. Too many collectors these days have the idea that grading is reading a number on a slab."
I'm trying to have a discussion and you want to get personal. I know my coins...I do NOT know on any given day what PCGS will think of a coin and I haven't met a person who has. I've had one of the best graders in the history of PCGS suggest I crack out 2 fairly rare coins from NGC holders that did not grade. But don't attack me. I'm just making a point. "Mean Old Grumps" should stay on the porch.
This is some rough crowd...believe me, JOHN, I don't need your sympathy. And the price of the coin is relative, isn't it?? To some a $500 coin is a lot...to others a $250K coin is average. I am not here as a newcomer to get into p*ssing matches with old grumps. I'll keep it all generic. But do me a favor...publish the topics and opinions that the fraternity has deemed off-limits. Ha
If that was your original intent of this post, then I would agree with you most of the time...
However, if that were entirely true, then there wouldnt be crackout artists that make money...
And they do...
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
SG,
Actually, I think that this an appropriate topic, as just yesterday I had a similar conversation with a rare gold coin dealer.
I agree with your initial statement: "Crack-outs are sucker bets." From my own standpoint, this is true. Others more knowledgeable, and frankly luckier, appear to be able to make a career out of it. I try to buy nice coins with above average eye appeal in whatever plastic (NGC or PCGS) surrounds them.
Being that you are a Registry participant in a popular (and expensive) series, I understand your frustration and sympathisize with you.
Robert
I totally think the topic was within limits. It is a coin topic and therefore fine to discuss.
Ask anyone (well, most anyone) and they will tell you that I am far from a grump and certainly far from old.
My only problem was in your presentation. I felt it was haughty. I have no problem with people having lots of money to buy nice coins. I am not the type that is unhappy and jealous when someone lands a big deal or wins the lotto or something. Whether it is by inheritance, luck or good old fashioned hard work, I am happy when people are doing well for themselves.
However, when someone that has money, makes a statement like the one you made, it comes off to me, as arrogant... or at best a defense mechanism to hide a shortcoming.
You have to keep in mind that the average poster on these boards makes around 30 to 60 thousand a year....so when you talk outwardly like losing 12K on a upgrade and dont blink an eye with a flair for monetary ambivilence, it wont make you friends. This should be a forum for sharing nice coins and experiences (which you partly did), not for seeing who has the fattest piggy bank, and letting everyone know that you do.
Very respectfully,
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
I am genuinely happy to have new people come to the boards. I really like this place and enjoy posting. I just want everyone to feel welcome. Those that collect finest known saints, and those that collect Roosevelt dimes in AG3...
And yes, I did look at your saints. They are impressive to say the least.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
Discussiing or posting pictures of coins worth more than $1,000 is now prohibited as it belittles the rest of us, makes our coins look like rusty washers, takes the wind out of our sails, and generally causes certain board members all kinds of psychological trauma.
Now, it would be nice if Russ and K&Z could content themselves with their proof Kennedies and MS63 Morgans and let those who President Bush refers to as the “have mores” (“his base” as he put it in his own words) go their merry way. But alas that is not the case, so we have to set limits here.
Since you are new to the boards we will forgive you for now.
On a more serious note you might want to read this thread regading the current status of the crack-out game. Link
CG
I don't know what to say on this board. I'm just going to hang out quietly and read the threads for a while because the "firing line" is more than I want to deal with. Some of the participants are like predators...I think I'll just go to the bank and talk to my "too expensive" Ladies in plastic. If I want to argue I'll open the door to my den and ask my wife what's for dinner.
<< <i>Now, it would be nice if Russ and K&Z could content themselves with their proof Kennedies and MS63 Morgans and let those who President Bush refers to as the “have mores” (“his base” as he put it in his own words) go their merry way. But alas that is not the case, so we have to set limits here. >>
Real nice slam there CalGold. And of course, no MS63 would be worth more than a few dollars, would it?
i have a couple of coins that i cant decide on whether to crack em,x em,or cross at any grade.
anybody close by in so-cal willing to look at em in hand and and render an opinion ?
if they come a grade down im OK,2 grades aint the end of the world,3 grades im pissed !,cant see an NGC coin coming back 3 grades down though !
Mr Feld,Morris, Frattlaw ?
If you could see me at my computer, I would appear frustrated..
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
<< <i>Now, it would be nice if Russ and K&Z could content themselves with their proof Kennedies and MS63 Morgans and let those who President Bush refers to as the “have mores” (“his base” as he put it in his own words) go their merry way. >>
I see CalGold is still stinging from having his ass handed to him over in the Open Forum.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>One thing that I do take offense to is your condescending attitude...
"No one should be cracking coins out when they do not fully understand how to grade the coin.....It's sad, but true. Too many collectors these days have the idea that grading is reading a number on a slab."
>>
That's not condescending... that's logic.
Unless you're sure you know what you're doing, then there's a huge risk. In this day with so many slabs on the market, many people look soley at the slab and not the coin, because they don't know how to grade. Would you put $12k into a stock if you had little knowledge of how the market worked and how the company was doing? I doubt it. Same thing with cracking a coin and having no clue how to actually grade it.
Jeremy
<< <i> see CalGold is still stinging from having his ass handed to him over in the Open Forum >>
Kindly link all such threads for all to see Russ. As I recall, the low esteem guys such as yourself all kind of put their tails between their legs and went on to post their nonesense on other threads.
CG
Look, John, you know that you are looking at sets that cost thousands and millions of dollars. No matter what we have there's many sets light years better, so noone is flaunting anything or covering "shortcomings". I hope you are not being "genitalical" in that remark.
Anyway I hope this clarifies what matters to ME. As I said this board is going to take some getting used to and I jumped in head first. I do understand you and I did not miss your closing of "very respectfully" which I'm sure you were very deliberate about. I don't have big britches or a trust account. I'm a regular guy and I buy nice coins.
Well said.
V.r,
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
i dont wanna pick on you,but !
you knew the spread was 12 k from 5 to 4,well actually probably less because of the perceived dis-parity in prices from PCGS to NGC,unless you thought it was a no brainer x or upgrade rip coin you shoulda sent it in on a xover in the slab.
12 k may not mean much to you,but it sure as hell would make a difference to most of us here.
thats my .02
Proof