The one part of this market that makes me nervous are the key dates. People can argue that these coins are scarce and always in demand, which is true. BUT anything can be overpriced, and currently if there is any place were people are perhaps overextending, it’s the key dates IMO.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>Markets move downward when more people sell than buy. However, the general consensus here is that when coins move downward, people will buy more. Does this seem ironic to anyone else? How can a market go down if everyone is buying? >>
Very easy. Collectors aren't buying ALL OF THE TIME. They just wait for prices to correct then resume buying. If one is patient enough to wait he can get more coin/coins for the money.
Bill's comment about key dates brings to mind what I've seen the price of '01-S quarters do over the last 1-2 years. I wasn't in danger of buying one then, even less so now, but it is amazing to me what it will now cost to get even a lousy specimen. I will watch the price trends of that one with interest, even though I've no intention of buying it.
I am looking up too many coins in the CDN and LAUGHING at the asking prices compared to sheet.
Yes, above sheet is normal nowadays. But I'm talking about general date coins. And it is not unusual to see 40% or more premiums being.....sought.
Strangely, I don't think the keys will be affected much if at all. In fact, it would not surprise me to see them continue to rise as more and more people come to the realization that the keys are the ONLY ...really....saleable coins in a set.
<< <i>Strangely, I don't think the keys will be affected much if at all. In fact, it would not surprise me to see them continue to rise as more and more people come to the realization that the keys are the ONLY ...really....saleable coins in a set. >>
If you are talking about a set in Mint State or Proof, I really don't agree that the keys are the only really saleable coins in a set. If that were to come to pass, I'd say that the price crash is in the offing for key date coins. Most collectors like to line up the complete date and mint sets with both the keys and the scarce to common dates.
I would agree with you if you are writing about circulated sets of common coins like Mercury dimes, but recently even a lot of common date Lincoln cents from the teens and twenties have post modest price increases in the circulated grades.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Bill, my opinion is not really on the MS and PROOF complete sets. Those are not held by people affected by most economic situations. And they are so few that they will either buy more or ride out any wave.
My opinion on keys is that no matter what grade someone is doing a set in, they will buy a ...lower... grade key if necessary to complete a set. Coin collecting persists at all times in all markets. I just think that someone with a set of mostly BU Morgans will still put a VF 89CC or a VG 93S in his box and be happy to have it.
But, seeing 80-S Morgans in DMPL offered at a grand makes me .....REALLY...... cautious. In '72 DMPL's were 5 bucks and gems were 3 and VERY plentiful. I kick myself for all the ones I ....didn't....buy at those prices. No slabs, but you could pick a dealer box or boxes for hours and still have more to go through.
Those non-key .....CLASSIC....... coins in SUPERB condition will always sell. However, I don't think they will continue at today's frantic pace or price.
A lot of classic stuff in 63 and 64 is getting too pricey to continue. IMHO of course.
And I have a .....special.....place for my opinion of some of those CC "scuff 64" dollars.
I have already sold nearly everthing I don't intend to die with....I'm in for the long haul and look forward to a market I can "buy" in not just "sell."
"You keep your 1804 dollar and 1822 half eagle -- give me rainbow roosies in MS68." rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
Andy: I'm building up my long-term bargain hunter's shopping list for when the market dips and people who are overexposed to the rare coin market, by taking more risk than they should, decide to sell for emotional and not rational reasons when they become scared.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>When the market tanks, I'll be buying the coins I've wanted on the down side and be very happy. >>
Well said. To quote Warren Buffett -- who knows a thing or two about buying low and selling high -- be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful.
It doesn't *completely* transfer over from buying and selling coins as opposed to stocks, but the basic principle still applies to the extent it exists.
Well if a dealer wants to stay in business he has to sell something. He can't afford afford to sit on stuff for months or years waiting for the prices to start goin back up. Presumably he will be selling at a profit. There will be some folks who may have to sell at a loss.
<< <i>be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful.
What a bozo. People are ALWAYS greedy AND fearful. >>
Yeah, well coming from someone who has the financial resources to rebuild the Eliasberg collection many times over, feel free to question it. I don't. Yes, there's always a little fear when you go in and scoop up assets on the cheap, wondering if you're trying to grab at a falling dagger, but significant wealth building doesn't come without risk.
As a group people are always greedy and fearful but individually many will act greedy and many will act fearful. Do the opposite of the majority and your chance of significant profits are much higher.
From the replies to this thread it appears that SOUTH may not be the bottom that people think it will be. Especially, with this many collectors waiting in the wings to buy?
When the market starts to decline, you hold back your money for the truly rare pieces as they appear on the way down (IF they do). Once the market establishes a new base, then you can buy the more common stuff all day long.
Personally, I'd be loking for super-tough die marriages at 70-80% of current market as some aging collectors look to dump while they can. At 50% I could safely add a number of nice AU R.1-R.3 marriages, if I had any bucks left over.
My advice to other collectors is to wait and buy the super-tough die marriages at 50%.
be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful.
Buffett's financial acumen is better than his command of the language. He shoud have said "Buy when people are fearful, and sell when people lack fear." Sorry if it doesn't sound as cute, but at least it's right.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Comments
<< <i>Markets move downward when more people sell than buy. However, the general consensus here is that when coins move downward, people will buy more. Does this seem ironic to anyone else? How can a market go down if everyone is buying? >>
Very easy. Collectors aren't buying ALL OF THE TIME. They just wait for prices to correct then resume buying. If one is patient enough to wait he can get more coin/coins for the money.
I am staying under it and don't need any attention.
Now GO AWAY!
And don't let anyone SEE you.
I am looking up too many coins in the CDN and LAUGHING at the asking prices compared to sheet.
Yes, above sheet is normal nowadays. But I'm talking about general date coins. And it is not unusual to see 40% or more premiums being.....sought.
Strangely, I don't think the keys will be affected much if at all. In fact, it would not surprise me to see them continue to rise as more and more people come to the realization that the keys are the ONLY ...really....saleable coins in a set.
<< <i>Strangely, I don't think the keys will be affected much if at all. In fact, it would not surprise me to see them continue to rise as more and more people come to the realization that the keys are the ONLY ...really....saleable coins in a set. >>
If you are talking about a set in Mint State or Proof, I really don't agree that the keys are the only really saleable coins in a set. If that were to come to pass, I'd say that the price crash is in the offing for key date coins. Most collectors like to line up the complete date and mint sets with both the keys and the scarce to common dates.
I would agree with you if you are writing about circulated sets of common coins like Mercury dimes, but recently even a lot of common date Lincoln cents from the teens and twenties have post modest price increases in the circulated grades.
My opinion on keys is that no matter what grade someone is doing a set in, they will buy a ...lower... grade key if necessary to complete a set. Coin collecting persists at all times in all markets. I just think that someone with a set of mostly BU Morgans will still put a VF 89CC or a VG 93S in his box and be happy to have it.
But, seeing 80-S Morgans in DMPL offered at a grand makes me .....REALLY...... cautious. In '72 DMPL's were 5 bucks and gems were 3 and VERY plentiful. I kick myself for all the ones I ....didn't....buy at those prices. No slabs, but you could pick a dealer box or boxes for hours and still have more to go through.
Those non-key .....CLASSIC....... coins in SUPERB condition will always sell. However, I don't think they will continue at today's frantic pace or price.
A lot of classic stuff in 63 and 64 is getting too pricey to continue. IMHO of course.
And I have a .....special.....place for my opinion of some of those CC "scuff 64" dollars.
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>When the market tanks, I'll be buying the coins I've wanted on the down side and be very happy. >>
Well said. To quote Warren Buffett -- who knows a thing or two about buying low and selling high -- be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful.
It doesn't *completely* transfer over from buying and selling coins as opposed to stocks, but the basic principle still applies to the extent it exists.
What a bozo. People are ALWAYS greedy AND fearful.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Katrina
> I am always saving and buying. I am building a lifetime collection.
Yup.
> I will buy a few CC Morgans that I can't afford right now.
Yup, yup.
Who are these people you know who sell when the price goes down?
Don't make no sense.
-KHayse
<< <i>be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful.
What a bozo. People are ALWAYS greedy AND fearful. >>
Yeah, well coming from someone who has the financial resources to rebuild the Eliasberg collection many times over, feel free to question it. I don't. Yes, there's always a little fear when you go in and scoop up assets on the cheap, wondering if you're trying to grab at a falling dagger, but significant wealth building doesn't come without risk.
I wish I had the financial acumen of "bozo."
I hope to be out of my duplicates by then, but no, I will not sell my core collection, no matter what the market does.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
and many will act fearful. Do the opposite of the majority and your chance of significant
profits are much higher.
Especially, with this many collectors waiting in the wings to buy?
if small eagle silver and pre-1800 copper comes down 50% I will back up the truck.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I will hold my ground until the market hits bottom, and then sell it all
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
Personally, I'd be loking for super-tough die marriages at 70-80% of current market as some aging collectors look to dump while they can. At 50% I could safely add a number of nice AU R.1-R.3 marriages, if I had any bucks left over.
My advice to other collectors is to wait and buy the super-tough die marriages at 50%.
Cool Things
Bust Coin Forum
Buffett's financial acumen is better than his command of the language. He shoud have said "Buy when people are fearful, and sell when people lack fear." Sorry if it doesn't sound as cute, but at least it's right.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.