Will you run and hide when the market turns south?

MrEureka

When our long bull market inevitably reverses - next week, next year, next decade, whenever - it will probably be be a long way to the bottom. So when you see the market turn south, will you continue to spend as much on your collection or will you run and hide like a frightened puppy? BE HONEST!!!

tradedollarnut

I'll continue to buy, but I'll be more selective. I've already become a bit more selective as prices have risen so much, but I'd be even more in a falling market.

tmot99

I'll be buying. I want the coins now but I am not going to spend the crazy money they are going for now.

clw54

I'm hardly buying the friggin' things now. I will if they ever get cheaper.

Catch22

What do you think will be the motivating factor to reverse the up trend? What is looming on the horizon to make you think the market is headed for a crash?

mhammerman

when it goes south...you already need to have run and be hiding...HEE HEE!!!

haletj

I wouldn't buy anything that I thought may be findable cheaper in the future.

fcloud

I'm a collector, so I will still be buying. It could go back to bargain time. If my timing is right, by the time I'm ready to retire, there will be another boom!

dpoole

The participation on this Board will be as good a gauge of the state of the market as anything else.

Also, when the market turns, I'll quit buying for awhile. When it seems to be bouncing along the bottom, I'll probably start collecting a new series.

coinbuf

As a collector I'll be buying more then I cannot afford much at the prices today.

Chris

cladking

I'm not looking for a bottom anytime soon but will no doubt continue doing what I've always done; working
on my collections and looking for anything undervalued by the market or the current owner.

K6AZ

I'll use it as an opportunity to upgrade some coins when it looks like it has bottomed out. I don't know about other series, but I'm seeing definite signs that the Morgan market has run out of steam.

puff

If I need it and it fits into my collection I'll buy it.

mercurynut

I am always saving and buying. I am building a lifetime collection.

bullseye

If I could live through getting killed in the stock market, I can live through a down turn in coins.

I still have some of my turkey stocks. I'm either very stupid or patient as all hell. At least with my coins, I'll be holding onto somethingI enjoy looking at.

Mike

wingedliberty

Why would anyone run away from the same quality coins they had the year before or the day before?. They are still the same desirable and quality coins. Only the fools who look at coins as investments will run.
High quality and desirable coins will always be in demand.

ms70

<< <i>I'll use it as an opportunity to upgrade some coins when it looks like it has bottomed out. >>



My thoughts exactly. Any branch mint gold experts please correct me if I'm wrong but lately I've had the feeling that Dahlonega
and Charlotte gold have slowed quite a bit. Last week there were some PCGS pieces on eBay. Some were very overpriced & others were
fairly priced & didn't move. The auction pieces didn't realize super high prices like they seemed to get last year on the bourse floor at
Baltimore ANA. They just don't seem (to me) to have as strong a demand as last year at this time.

Again, please chime in on this as I'd love to hear from someone who has their ear to the market on this particular series. I only see little
bits of it.

fountainheadgold

I will buy twice as much as prices will be 50%

ColonialCoinUnion

I'll be buying the same kinds of coins I buy now for whatever price it takes to get them.

ARCO

I couldn't stop buying coins if I wanted so I will be buying in the good times, bad times and during armageddon.

Tyler

numonebuyer

I will buy a few CC Morgans that I can't afford right now.

roadrunner

During the pullback in 1980-1982 I was a full fledged collector and stayed away until the bottom in 1982. While I didn't do that in 1990-1995 I will likely be more conservative the next time around.
If there are untapped areas to be had, I'll test them out. If not, I'll run and hide behind Andy.

roadrunner

mrearlygold

Ahhhhh traveling for fun.

There's something to be said about that. I know a beach in SE Asia...............

Tom

ursabear

P.S. Andy,

What's wrong with the South

stujoe

I would be buying a lot more than I am now.

ursabear

When the market goes *sour*, I will start buying again. Good buying opportunities can be had right after market meltdowns.

But then again, my coins are no longer for the purpose of investment or income. I just buy those I want/like, and sell enough to keep the ball rolling.

100proof1957

i am really only looking for 1 coin to complete my proof set

RYK

but lately I've had the feeling that Dahlonega and Charlotte gold have slowed quite a bit.

I am not an expert, but I do follow the market. It is my observation that nice Dahlonega coins still bring strong money. There are a lot of coins on the market in various grades in both PCGS and NGC holders that are not so nice for the grade and/or unattractively unoriginal that are having trouble finding a home. The key dates continue to have strong demand and sell for strong money. There have been two complete MS Dahlonega collections to come on the market this year (Green Pond and Duke's Creek) and one near-complete set (North Shore), which is a lot for the high end market to absorb. As far as "collector grade" coins, they seems to sell for Trends plus when they are original and properly graded. Try to find an original circulated (30-50) 61-D $1, 55-D $1, 54-D $3, 61-D $5, or 55/6-D $2.50 for any price!

I do not follow the Charlotte market, but I know the Dingler Collection, a complete MS set of Charlotte gold, is for sale at Pinnacle. While I do not foresee anyone buying the whole set as it is currently advertised, I would not be surprised if there is great interest in individual coins if/when the set is broken up.

While you did not mention New Orleans gold, New Orleans $20's (with the exception of the common date 51-O and 52-O) have been virtually absent from the market for over a year. The prices in the Richmond sale were very strong for coins that were not necessarily strong.

Anyways, perhaps, I am talking my position, but I do not see any weakness in the pre-Civil War branch mint gold series that I follow. If anything, there are too few nice coins out there to meet the demand.

tmot99

I was tracking a few coins on the Teletrade auction tonight that went at reasonable prices. It's one of the first times in months that I've seen nice coins goin at or below sheet on teletrade. It has me keeping an eye on the market's future. There has also been a lot of threads on here about the market. Are people getting leary of the market? Is it about to crash?

Coinosaurus

I'll continue to buy but may be less inclined to pay some of the stupid money I do now for things I want too much. Also I think there will be more opportunities - I've always been interested in getting some high grade moderns but have stayed out of it because I think that segment of the market is a joke, but I'd be thrilled to pick up that sort of material at a fraction of the current prices.

elwood

I would be a buyer (once I felt we had reached a bottom) and most likely a collector as well
If the type of material I'm interested in is available.

bestbino

NEVER!!!

Buy Low and Sell High

or

Buy Lower and Sell a little higher

ElectricEye

I'll still be here

MrEureka

As a collector, I would not buy replaceable coins in the earlier stages of a falling market. So I'd be EXTREMELY selective, not so much on price but on quality and rarity.

oreville

I was out of the coin market as a collector in 1979-1983 and 1987-1994. I started to buy furiously in 1994 as I sensed a bottom.

You better believe that I will run and hide for about three years as that seems to be the minimum it seems to take tfor coin prices to bottom out.

I hate buying coins when I think they will be cheaper six months later. For a one of a kind coin.....well there are other one of a kind coins to be found when prices are dropping!

We have a ways to go before we approach a change in the direction in the winds.

fishcooker

Frightened puppy. I'll dump everything worth dumping. It's not like I own any pop 1's.

I'll sell and come back 5 years later to repurchase stuff at low prices. Coins are a volatile market..... might as well use that - along with herd mentality - to an advantage.

LincolnCentMan

Well since I'm pretty much selling out now... that might be irrealivant. But I plan on haveing some coins when the market bottoms out. However, I'm going to be ever so slowly buying key date coins to popular series. So hopefully, those will be the last to go down. I hope that when they do go down, they wont go down as much.

If I had a bunch of "stuff...." I'd probably sell most of it when it lost 25% of it's peak value then only buy stuff for inventory.

David

oreville

There seems to be a misconception. Coin prices after the peak can drop close to 50 % in value in a matter of months giving no one enough warning to sell when the peak has passed. The exit doors become too crowded to get out in time.

The ones selling at the first sign of trouble will already be too late. This happened in 1980 and again in 1990. There was a one year exception in 1989 when prices rebounded in slabbed coins from 1989 to 1990. That is the exception and not the rule.

Bochiman

I'll buy.
Bought the house, mom is doing a bit better so the funds I was diverting to her to help her pay her bills (rent, insurance, etc after the strokes and death of my step-dad) can come back to coins, and daycare is getting cheaper as the kid gets older

So, I can add a bit more into the coin budget (just bought a 1972DDO PCGS MS64 from Ira
Something I couldn't have done a few months ago before things got a little better.

granddad

No, but I will definitely take an extended vacation in the south. Then back to what I love doing.

Louis

Placid

If prices start to drop rapidly I think I would hesitate to buy simply because I might be able to buy the same or similar for less next month.
While I am not an investor I still don't like the idea of paying $2000 for something that may be worth $1750 next month.

JrGMan2004

I'll continue to buy and hunt my pretty little coins... this is a hobby for me, not a business... I'm gonna enjoy it as best I can in the good times, and the bad...

Justhavingfun

"When the market turns south?

When did it turn North? According to the Grey Sheet charts, the market bottomed about a decade ago down at 80 on their Index. Since then it's crawled up to 83 over the following ten years.

This is a bull market? Maybe a baby bull. Let's see if it gets going, really going, and then worry about the bear market.

And in the meantime, if I'm still around when the market turns down with a thud, I'm going to be buying Seated Liberties and US Philippines with both hands. Ooooh, I'm rubbing my hands with anticipation at the thought of getting those beauts -- already undervalued -- at even cheaper prices. Yummmmmmmmm

Enjoy,


Just Having Fun

MrEureka

According to the Grey Sheet charts, the market bottomed about a decade ago down at 80 on their Index.

The market for "great coins" is definitely in a bull phase. I have to conclude that the CDN index is based on generics and other less than exceptional coins. Can anyone verify that for us?

JadeRareCoin

Our exhaustive market research has shown that a numismatic bear market feeds a Beanie Baby bull market. It's a complex analysis, but it has been scientifically proven. If the coin market goes South, then we will cleverly divert all of our investments towards the Beanie Baby market.


(shoot me if I ever do this)

BillJones

It won't grab me one way or the other Andy.

I might get hurt with what I have in inventory, but as for my collection, it won't change my buying patterns. If anything I'll buy more coins because the prices will be lower.

As a collector I have loved bear markets over the years. It's when I have purchased some of my best coins. The main problem is that it's hard to find coins because the "strong hands" can afford to hold the good stuff back until the market gets better.

During the really crazy boom periods, like the late 1970s I stopped buying much of anything of consequence. This time around I am buying some items, but if I'm putting them away, they have to be very nice for the grade.

ddink

Markets move downward when more people sell than buy. However, the general consensus here is that when coins move downward, people will buy more. Does this seem ironic to anyone else? How can a market go down if everyone is buying?

BillJones

The answer to your question is WHO is buying. Most of the people here are collectors. Although making money is of interest to many of them, their fundamental interest is in collecting.

Historically badly overheated coin markets have been driven by investors and speculators. These people have little interest in the hobby, and many of them are less than well-informed buyers. Investors and speculators have quite often driven collectors to the sidelines because the collectors either could not afford to stay in the market, or they perceived that prices were speculative and much too high.

The amount of money that investors and speculators can pump into the coin market is potentially much higher than the amount of money that might come from true collectors. The stock and real estate markets dwarf the size of the coin market, and just a tiny fraction of cash diverted from those markets to coins can have a huge effect on prices. Therefore when the speculators pull the plug, coin prices can drop like a stone despite the fact that collectors might come back into the market.

DHeath

I thought about this thread for awhile before I responded, and I find myself in agreement with Bill Jones. I think I would be far more likely to run and hide if the market doubled.

ziggy29

Right now I am selling some "commodity" type coins that I'm not particularly attached to or that I'm not particularly collecting. I am still picking up a few pieces that I collect, though -- mostly key dates and some other random holes that won't cost much more than $10-20 to fill (not too worried about downside for those). I will plan to buy back what I'm selling, and then some, once the overheated market sufficiently cools.

GOLDSAINT

I think this was a post from the recent ANR sale post, but someone said one of the larger U.S. dealers was just shaking his head as many coins sold to well healed collectors, that’s got to make you a little nervous. I missed all of the ups and downs of the late 80’s and 90’s market, and have only been back in 14 months, so I am probably paying too much already. Is it just my imagination or, have there been a lot of nervous market threads over the last 2 weeks?
I have already packed my bags for hiding, but right now I am not getting killed that bad by the high prices, because I am being OUTBID 70% of the time. Only time will tell if that is a good thing.